Ilov80s
Footballguy
Makes sense on paper but often tough to do in reality because the guy who had Sermon or Moster that you outbid might be too mad at you to make the move.
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RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter IHEARTFF
- Start date
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
That Berry guy from espn would like a word.
I think I saw on Twitter or Reddit MB he was recommending 100% FAAB on Mitchell Sunday night.
He’s more or less a parody of himself these days, no? Basically harmless, no one attention to him.
But Yates is on a site that has a decent amount of data and he influences a good swath of players. He is shockingly bad at his job.
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facook
Footballguy
Only when Mostert was healthy for some reason. As someone else mentioned somewhere on her today, last year McKinnon had a great week 6 while Jeff Wilson was inactive. The next week Wilson got everything in NE and scored 3 td's. No rhyme or reason from the outside looking in.
facook
Footballguy
Yes, Berry is a caricature, a brand at this point.
I don't know if you ever pick and choose experts on FP ECR rankings, but it is shocking to see how poorly Yates has ranked the last two years among "experts."
Speaking of which, Tags is still ventilated in the hospital, battling covid for about a month now I believe. :(
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Interesting. In my mind, Sermon is Jeff Wilson. The bigger but slower backs. Mitchell is a really close physical comp to Mostert. What that means...I am not sure but that seems accurate.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I was waiting for @BobbyLayneto chime in since he saw every play of the game. lol. He's not a sure thing, but has high potential. In big leagues it take weeks or the entire season to get back to #1 in waiver priority. Last year, I got Chase Claypool with the #1 priority in week 4. I don't need a RB now, but with injuries at the position, it is good to stock up.
The General
Footballguy
I find myself getting sucked in to this dumpster fire fantasy backfield...How much are people who are bidding putting in for this guy?
I was going to do like 10% and now every article is saying 20, 40, etc.
ETA: Lots of good info on previous page which I neglected to read before this post
I could be talked up to 20% but even that seems crazy.
I was going to do like 10% and now every article is saying 20, 40, etc.
ETA: Lots of good info on previous page which I neglected to read before this post
I could be talked up to 20% but even that seems crazy.
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facook
Footballguy
HIs wife tweeted on the 11th still ventilated but she seemed positive/hopeful. Same yesterday.
Team Smokin'
Footballguy
I'm slightly hesitate to bet the farm on him myself. Serman will figure in and Jeff Wilson comes off IR in about 7-8 weeks to make it even more typical and murky. Might just shy away. Idk
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
haha
whenever I have a difference of opinion with others evaluation, I always remember what BB once said: “Don’t tell me what a player can’t do, tell me what he can do.” You can coach em up and simply design plays/schemes tailored to their strengths.
Every year we see not very talented RBs become relevant and occasionally see so much volume they are an every week starter. I don’t think that happens here but I def could be wrong. I do think Mitchell’s running style fits the Shanahan scheme very well.
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RenegadeRoy
Footballguy
Totally. That's why I probably wouldn't drop more than 20% unless I needed an RB/FLEX fill in for a week or two.
I was able to flip Hines last year using the same strat, and this was after I outbid the guy who I traded to.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
He’s most valuable to Sermon owners so I could see those mangers bidding a little higher.
nittanylion
Footballguy
I'm basing my current WW decision on experience dealing with the Shanahan's for the entire lifespan of father and son's Coaching careers.
Once in very long while, a RB comes along like a Terell Davis or a Clinton Portis, who is capable of handling most of the pie. When that guy comes along, he eats.
I'm not 100% saying Sermon is that guy, but IMHO, he profiles as the closest thing to it that this backfield has seen in the Kyle Shanahan regime. He's the only RB worth a significant investment, IMHO.
I wholly and completely believe Sermon did something knuckleheaded; that Sunday was punative; and that whatever it was, it's water under the bridge, and Shanahan/Sermon are moving forward, and Sermon will be featured sooner than later. When he is, it's my opinion that he will seize the job, and the job will be the lion's share of statistical output from the RB room.
I'm not spending a dime on Elijah Mitchell, right or wrong. If anyone in any of my Leagues drops Sermon, I'll go to great lengths to acquire him. While everyone is spending on Mitchell and Hasty, I will spend pennies on Jeff Wilson, where he's available, but only if he goes for pennies.
It is a system that yields results, and Elijah Mitchell has some foundational skills that lend themselves to the system. Great. Sermon does as well, and his profile, IMHO, is the most likely to yield a featured back.
I might be wrong, but that's where I stand, but I'm OK with it.
Once in very long while, a RB comes along like a Terell Davis or a Clinton Portis, who is capable of handling most of the pie. When that guy comes along, he eats.
I'm not 100% saying Sermon is that guy, but IMHO, he profiles as the closest thing to it that this backfield has seen in the Kyle Shanahan regime. He's the only RB worth a significant investment, IMHO.
I wholly and completely believe Sermon did something knuckleheaded; that Sunday was punative; and that whatever it was, it's water under the bridge, and Shanahan/Sermon are moving forward, and Sermon will be featured sooner than later. When he is, it's my opinion that he will seize the job, and the job will be the lion's share of statistical output from the RB room.
I'm not spending a dime on Elijah Mitchell, right or wrong. If anyone in any of my Leagues drops Sermon, I'll go to great lengths to acquire him. While everyone is spending on Mitchell and Hasty, I will spend pennies on Jeff Wilson, where he's available, but only if he goes for pennies.
It is a system that yields results, and Elijah Mitchell has some foundational skills that lend themselves to the system. Great. Sermon does as well, and his profile, IMHO, is the most likely to yield a featured back.
I might be wrong, but that's where I stand, but I'm OK with it.
There was a reason to the changing RB usage last year. It was all because of injuries. It was obvious last year who was going to be used until an in game injury happened. That is the only reason Wilson got everything the week after he was inactive.
facook
Footballguy
Ok, that makes sense. Does that mean you a confident Mitchell is the bell-cow this week?
No. I am a Sermon believer and think there was something non-football that caused the deactivation. I think they will split time this week as Sermon gets in game action.
Last year was also a unique situation in that RB's kept getting injured and missing games leaving limited options for SF to use. Right now I think it's a toss up between Mitchell and Sermon but believe eventually Sermon will win out. It might take a couple weeks though but that is the way I think it will eventually shake out. Keep in mind thought that Sermon has never been the picture of health either so it is just as likely he goes down at some point so getting Mitchell is something that will have value.
Instinctive
Footballguy
I struggle to see more than two outcomes as likely:
1. Sermon was a non STer, Hasty was the 3rd down back, and since Mitchel could do double duty and Sermon missed a curfew of some kind, he was inactive. Without Mostert, he's the RB1 rest of the way.
2. Sermon was outplayed and Shanahan kept it perfectly secret all offseason and TC and preseason, and sat because he was the #4. In this case, I'd expect Mitchell to have all the carries (or nearly so).
2A. I could see a world where Sermon is the GL back in this situation too.
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
Just went for 29.5 percent in my league. I bid 22
Phantom Knight
Footballguy
I hope you're wrong... or that the Niners want to keep confusing us!Ilov80s said:
In a short bench league ( player per position), I've got Sermon on my bench and no chance at getting this week's hot pickup. Rather than drop Soneermon, for someone with a lower ceiling, I'll hold for another week or two.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yes. Shanahan said he was outplayed in the preseason. He didn't specify the area of concern. It could be maturity, playbook, pass pro, or ability. Regardless, he said the others passed him up for positions on the 53.
https://www.si.com/nfl/49ers/news/why-kyle-shanahan-placed-trey-sermon-inactive-in-week-1
Also, worth noting: Niners signed Kerryon Johnson to the practice squad today. Might be nothing. Might not be nothing.
What I read is that Shanahan said Mitchell beat out Sermon as he had a better training camp. And that he was part of getting roster to 48 active on game day. But that he expects Sermon to be ready now with Mostert out. So my guess is Sermon now will get some carries but not necessarily the lions share. I rostered Sermon on a couple teams. Now trying for Mitchell on all teams if posssible.
In case you can't get enough Elijah:
Preseason: Can break tackles, gets trucked, trucks a LB, and very good speed on a KO return: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgWhpfQco68
Every play week 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7oYIBNQ5uyk
He has explosion which I don't see in Sermon, who might be a better short yardage back due to his size.
JaMycal Hasty might also be a better fit for the offense.
Preseason: Can break tackles, gets trucked, trucks a LB, and very good speed on a KO return: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgWhpfQco68
Every play week 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7oYIBNQ5uyk
He has explosion which I don't see in Sermon, who might be a better short yardage back due to his size.
JaMycal Hasty might also be a better fit for the offense.
Boston
Footballguy
Sorry for the confusion but that wasn't my question...I knew that part of it...some posts here are alluding to "issues" outside of football which I am not aware of.
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ninogaggi
Footballguy
I know I’m in the minority here, but I’m dropping 59% of my FAAB to snag EM. I see it as an opportunity to possibly land a team-changing player.
My league is so deep that the best you can hope out of most waiver adds is a bye week filler. With EM, I think the possibility of landing an every week starter is greater than most of what I see on the waiver in this league and thus, worth the FAAB splooge.
That’s how I’m justifying it anyways,
My league is so deep that the best you can hope out of most waiver adds is a bye week filler. With EM, I think the possibility of landing an every week starter is greater than most of what I see on the waiver in this league and thus, worth the FAAB splooge.
That’s how I’m justifying it anyways,
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah, i haven’t heard anything about any off-field issues for sermon.
Unless it’s bedroom performance, and there’s pills for that now.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
someone’s gonna do that in every league.
may have about the same % chance of paying off, so there’s another way of looking at it.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Bowden was never really a RB. He should have been a WR from the beginning. I said last year he was forced to play QB in college because of injury to Terry Wilson and of course had to be a running QB. He was a decent receiver before playing QB.
I agree about Vaughn.
No one will be surprised if Sermon passes Mitchell at some point this year.
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
I am thinking of throwing a huge bid on him in a big league. I have Sermon. I fully expect him to be the guy, but Mitchell gives me insurance.
Deamon
Footballguy
I think the way is to do this and spread out your bids. I have 5 leagues and really believe in him so might go:
50
40
30
20
10
If i Get him in a couple but not all, then I know I kinda did it right and bid where I needed to. If I lose to him in all then I'm not too upset about it. And if I get him in all then at least I got him for good value in a couple.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
I'm in the same boat. I own Sermon and still believe Trey is the RB to own in SF. But I'm going to bid on Mitchell for sure. Owning the best RB in this offense could mean a league vwinner.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
oukurt
Footballguy
That likely won’t be close. Especially with sharps like Pat Fitzmaurice suggesting using 60% of FAAB.The General said:I find myself getting sucked in to this dumpster fire fantasy backfield...How much are people who are bidding putting in for this guy?
I was going to do like 10% and now every article is saying 20, 40, etc.
ETA: Lots of good info on previous page which I neglected to read before this post
I could be talked up to 20% but even that seems crazy.
I really wanted to avoid this but I’m being sucked in as well.
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oukurt
Footballguy
Thanks for posting. I agree he really seems to have explosion getting through the hole with good vision. Also liked that he rarely went down after first contact. Seems to have some decent wiggle.
Damnit I’m trying to get off this guy but I really like what I see.
Insein
Footballguy
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
6 bids ranging from 15 to 38.
win 38
place 33
show 26
win 38
place 33
show 26
