EBF said:
As for EBF's post of Williams getting 150-180 carries? Without a Jennings injury, I don't see how that's even remotely feasible. He'll come in to spell Jennings a few times a game and get the goal line looks. I'd be shocked if he got more than 5-8 touches a game though which would put him in that 125ish range. And I doubt he averages that, there's going to be games where he doesn't see more than 1-2 goal line looks. I'd say he gets about 100-125 carries this season MAX.
The Giants under Coughlin averaged 451 rushes a season if you take away last year where they ran for 381. That's a swing of 70 rushing attempts. Coughlin OBVIOUSLY wants to get back to what won them two titles in the past which was the running game. I'd be shocked if they ran less than 425 plays on the ground this year. So even if by some miracle Williams took 180 carries, you're still talking 245 carries left over. Take away a few for random QB runs and stuff. You're probably still looking at the worst case for Jennings to be like 230 rushes and around 50 receptions which as long as he doesn't pull a Ray Rice with 3.1ypc puts him in solid RB2 range, with or without Williams.
50 catches is pretty optimistic for Jennings. That would rank him around the top 10-15 RBs in the NFL. A few scrubs managed to eclipse that mark last season (Moreno, J Bell). But generally that's the territory of pass-catching specialists/dynamic playmakers like Woodhead, Sproles, Bush, McCoy, Charles, and Bernard.
Jennings has a career best of 36 catches in a season. It's possible that he'll top 50 this year, but maybe not likely and certainly not a given.
When it comes to situations where there's no clear proven starter, my typical strategy is to target the most talented player assuming that the cream will rise to the top. Therein lies my problem with Jennings. I believe he's the second most talented runner on his own team (ignoring Wilson). I can't confidently project workhorse carries for a player like that. I'll maintain that this is likely to be an ugly RBBC and that Williams could even wrestle away the majority of the carries by the end of the season.
How is that relevant, when he's been a career backup? - playing behind a very good pass catching back in MJD.
That's a fair point, although he had a good opportunity in Oakland.
I don't think Jennings is some kind of a big weapon in the passing game. He's not a Sproles, Bush, or Bernard. He's just a mediocre big back who has the ability to catch the ball. It's a nice attribute, but more as a safety valve than a guy who commands targets. If you look at the backs who had 50+ catches last year, most of them are a lot more dynamic. The closest thing to him is Joique Bell, who played on a very pass-happy team. I won't say it's impossible for Jennings to duplicate his production, but already gave some reasons for my reluctance to invest in him.
I also think people assuming that Andre Williams has absolutely zero to offer in the passing game might be exaggerating things a little bit. Williams is no Bernard/Sproles in his own right, but then again neither is Jennings. If he can just function as a reliable safety valve then that will take away a lot of the advantage that Jennings holds over him. Bear in mind that Coughlin has typically had a soft spot for two-down types with spotty receiving skills (Brandon Jacobs, Andre Brown). Given that, his BC ties, and the fact that I simply think Williams is a more dynamic talent than Jennings, and I'm just not getting on the Jennings bus.
