Is the 2024 RB Class really that bad? (2 Viewers)

[titusbramble]

I personally don't think any of these RBs, with the possible exception of Brooks, has any long term value. Sure, some will have short term value most likely, but no way in hell I waste a #1 pick on them.

In the current era of RBBC everywhere, scarcity of second contracts of any note outside of überstuds, and the continued evolution of game planning leading to an even greater pass:rush ratio (not helped by going on decades of awful rule changes), are we getting into a situation where a RB with long term value is going to be very much the exception, and if we're able to pick someone up in a draft who has a couple of seasons of high RB2 numbers and then flares out to a flex play until he's done at 26, do we actually start considering that a good result? How many RBs still on their first contract are we actually confident about having starter value in, say, 2026?

 

[BigTex]

I personally don't think any of these RBs, with the possible exception of Brooks, has any long term value. Sure, some will have short term value most likely, but no way in hell I waste a #1 pick on them.

Things will be clearer after draft and camp but agree even though there’s a few who I believe could fit the bill but if player like Taylor, Saqoun, and Jacob’s who are all fairly young are having a hard time then considering all things can we actually count on any running backs to have long term value?

You get your rookie deal, a franchise tag or two if the top 10 back but then just let go as a FA. Assumption on my part but it wouldn’t surprise me if those rich old farts made a pact not to sign RBs to big long term contracts.

Tex

 

[Biabreakable]

I personally don't think any of these RBs, with the possible exception of Brooks, has any long term value. Sure, some will have short term value most likely, but no way in hell I waste a #1 pick on them.

In the current era of RBBC everywhere, scarcity of second contracts of any note outside of überstuds, and the continued evolution of game planning leading to an even greater pass:rush ratio (not helped by going on decades of awful rule changes), are we getting into a situation where a RB with long term value is going to be very much the exception, and if we're able to pick someone up in a draft who has a couple of seasons of high RB2 numbers and then flares out to a flex play until he's done at 26, do we actually start considering that a good result? How many RBs still on their first contract are we actually confident about having starter value in, say, 2026?

The average number of productive seasons for fantasy for a RB who has one at all is two seasons.

Expectations of a long term RB career have been off for a long time. It's just becoming more obvious.

 

[zamboni]

I personally don't think any of these RBs, with the possible exception of Brooks, has any long term value. Sure, some will have short term value most likely, but no way in hell I waste a #1 pick on them.

In the current era of RBBC everywhere, scarcity of second contracts of any note outside of überstuds, and the continued evolution of game planning leading to an even greater pass:rush ratio (not helped by going on decades of awful rule changes), are we getting into a situation where a RB with long term value is going to be very much the exception, and if we're able to pick someone up in a draft who has a couple of seasons of high RB2 numbers and then flares out to a flex play until he's done at 26, do we actually start considering that a good result? How many RBs still on their first contract are we actually confident about having starter value in, say, 2026?

The average number of productive seasons for fantasy for a RB who has one at all is two seasons.

Expectations of a long term RB career have been off for a long time. It's just becoming more obvious.

For sure - I’ve come to view RBs in keeper/dynasty leagues not too much differently than in redraft leagues. Strike while the iron is hot and don’t overthink future years.

 

[Gally]

You get your rookie deal, a franchise tag or two if the top 10 back but then just let go as a FA. Assumption on my part but it wouldn’t surprise me if those rich old farts made a pact not to sign RBs to big long term contracts.

It's another reason not to look too long term in dynasty evaluations. You just can't count on anything beyond 2 years because so much changes.

 

[Biabreakable]

I personally don't think any of these RBs, with the possible exception of Brooks, has any long term value. Sure, some will have short term value most likely, but no way in hell I waste a #1 pick on them.

In the current era of RBBC everywhere, scarcity of second contracts of any note outside of überstuds, and the continued evolution of game planning leading to an even greater pass:rush ratio (not helped by going on decades of awful rule changes), are we getting into a situation where a RB with long term value is going to be very much the exception, and if we're able to pick someone up in a draft who has a couple of seasons of high RB2 numbers and then flares out to a flex play until he's done at 26, do we actually start considering that a good result? How many RBs still on their first contract are we actually confident about having starter value in, say, 2026?

The average number of productive seasons for fantasy for a RB who has one at all is two seasons.

Expectations of a long term RB career have been off for a long time. It's just becoming more obvious.

For sure - I’ve come to view RBs in keeper/dynasty leagues not too much differently than in redraft leagues. Strike while the iron is hot and don’t overthink future years.

The thing is if a RB puts a few games together you can try to trade them too if you don't think it's going to last long.

It is pretty much a loss as far as total roster value when you invest in a RB, either through draft or trade, but you will always need more.

 

[Hankmoody]

There’s not one WR in this draft I’d take over Puka, Jefferson or Lamb then my fill-ins are Garrett Wilson, Jordan Addison, George Pickens, Quentin Johnston, Rashod Bateman, Micheal Pittman, DeAdre Hopkins, Deebo Samuels,

The reason to take BPA in rookie drafts is because the whole goal is to find a multi year starter worthy player. That has value across the league. Reaching for a lesser player (that is already a crap shoot whether or not any player reaches starter level quality) only diminishes the chances of finding that starter level player. Reaching for a position of need for a player that has a lesser chance of being relevant is just lowering your hit rate. If you draft to a position of strength because that player is more likely to "hit" gives you pieces to maneuver with. Draft a lesser player at a position of need that is more likely to not hit is just a wasted pick.

Exactly. If you're so loaded at WR trade Deebo for a better RB and draft the BPA which may happen to be a WR.

 

[menobrown]

I can't help but fill like the NFL is indicating how they feel about the rookie RB class with the way they handled FA.

As well as how they feel about the WR class but we knew that already.

 

[JamboTaylor]

From my experience if the community is low on a particular position/draft class that’s when you go target them specifically and get good value. Like previously stated they’ll be 2 or 3 RB’s, that’ll probably be at least top-20 at the position for a few years, just need to pick the right ones

 

[Chaos34]

pick the ones drafted to play behind on the best offenses with the best ols

 

[beef]

I can't help but fill like the NFL is indicating how they feel about the rookie RB class with the way they handled FA.

As well as how they feel about the WR class but we knew that already.

Does seem to be a sign, and definitely not a top heavy RB class. It's also risky waiting for the draft too and some of these teams acquiring RBs are strong playoff contenders. Get your guy and make a SB run. I could see a couple of these teams still go RB in 2-4 rounds. Even the bigger FA signings could end up being 2 year deals.

 

[acarey50]

I can't help but fill like the NFL is indicating how they feel about the rookie RB class with the way they handled FA.

As well as how they feel about the WR class but we knew that already.

Does seem to be a sign, and definitely not a top heavy RB class. It's also risky waiting for the draft too and some of these teams acquiring RBs are strong playoff contenders. Get your guy and make a SB run. I could see a couple of these teams still go RB in 2-4 rounds. Even the bigger FA signings could end up being 2 year deals.

Packers seem like a prime candidate to possibly do something like this. The Jacobs deal is essentially a 1 year deal as I understand it, they let Jones go, and AJD is a free agent. They have the room and a team on the timeline that snagging a talented young RB makes sense as they don't need one to produce this year necessarily, but if they get one that can step in in year 2, they can save a lot of money by moving on from Jacobs at that point.

 

[BigTex]

There’s not one WR in this draft I’d take over Puka, Jefferson or Lamb then my fill-ins are Garrett Wilson, Jordan Addison, George Pickens, Quentin Johnston, Rashod Bateman, Micheal Pittman, DeAdre Hopkins, Deebo Samuels,

The reason to take BPA in rookie drafts is because the whole goal is to find a multi year starter worthy player. That has value across the league. Reaching for a lesser player (that is already a crap shoot whether or not any player reaches starter level quality) only diminishes the chances of finding that starter level player. Reaching for a position of need for a player that has a lesser chance of being relevant is just lowering your hit rate. If you draft to a position of strength because that player is more likely to "hit" gives you pieces to maneuver with. Draft a lesser player at a position of need that is more likely to not hit is just a wasted pick.

Exactly. If you're so loaded at WR trade Deebo for a better RB and draft the BPA which may happen to be a WR.

These league mates don’t trade their RBs like that, RBs are like fine gold.

Tex

 

[BigTex]

From my experience if the community is low on a particular position/draft class that’s when you go target them specifically and get good value. Like previously stated they’ll be 2 or 3 RB’s, that’ll probably be at least top-20 at the position for a few years, just need to pick the right ones

This

Tex

 

[@GregoryLKellogg]

I think better than most people are talking about

My mocks for my home league have these guys dropping from pick 17 to 38 and just feels like value when I put them in. With SF, you have 6 QBs more than likely gone by pick 16 and a Rattler or Pratt May fall in the 24-36 range. The TEs especially in Premium will have top 6 guy and then another in top 15 picks. Then you might have a Stover, Sinnott type go in round 2. Then throw in outstanding WR class(11guys chance to be in top 18 of my draft) and the RBs are just dropping to value points. I think 4 of these guys will be solid RBs. When you look at the top 20 guys now, how many highly rated. Hall, Bijan, McCaffery(but age now), Taylor, Gibbs, Etienne, Barkley, Walker, Jacobs, Mixon the most highly decorated coming in. Rest are late or FA pickups. Room for this class to have an impact for sure At great price point.

You forgot Trey Benson who I think in right situation can be solid pro.

Benson showed flashes but was so lightly used (averaged 12 carries per game and never topped 1,000 rushing yards) who can honestly say?

 

[JohnnyU]

I think better than most people are talking about

My mocks for my home league have these guys dropping from pick 17 to 38 and just feels like value when I put them in. With SF, you have 6 QBs more than likely gone by pick 16 and a Rattler or Pratt May fall in the 24-36 range. The TEs especially in Premium will have top 6 guy and then another in top 15 picks. Then you might have a Stover, Sinnott type go in round 2. Then throw in outstanding WR class(11guys chance to be in top 18 of my draft) and the RBs are just dropping to value points. I think 4 of these guys will be solid RBs. When you look at the top 20 guys now, how many highly rated. Hall, Bijan, McCaffery(but age now), Taylor, Gibbs, Etienne, Barkley, Walker, Jacobs, Mixon the most highly decorated coming in. Rest are late or FA pickups. Room for this class to have an impact for sure At great price point.

You forgot Trey Benson who I think in right situation can be solid pro.

Benson showed flashes but was so lightly used (averaged 12 carries per game and never topped 1,000 rushing yards) who can honestly say?

6 games under 4 yards per carry and a bad game against a horrible LSU defense. Never seemed to be the best player on the filed. High bust risk.

 

[Soulfly3]

Ill start taking a swing on RBs in rnd 3 of our rookie draft. Maybe.

These guys are stinky.