Solid value in late 2nd/early 3rd of rookie drafts. I like his long term prospects, but I don't want to count on any NYG running back this year behind that line.
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Andre Williams - RB (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Eminence
- Start date
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
Drifting OT, but incoming Georgia freshman RB Nick Chubb won the AAAA state shot put title earlier this year while also finishing 5th in the 100m. He goes about 5'10" 228 and seems destined to play on Sundays.How could I have forgotten him in a discussion like this.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
It is a concern of mine.I'm not sure if Okoye was ever the same after the traumatic bludgeoning to the sternum by Atwater.
I've seen some wiggle, but nobody would mistake him for Barry Sanders. Though Sanders was never called the human monster truck. Eddie Lacy is far niftier, obviously, but also can be a seek out and destroy-type runner. Eddie George was a lot more elusive, same with power runner Bettis.
He almost seems too muscular in the upper body for his own good, though the tree trunk legs come in handy. Maybe he will learn to pick his shots, and not try to annihilate a defender on every play. Punishment can be a two way street. If he blasts into the third level, he must be an intimidating sight to DBs.
Sometimes it seems like tackling is a lost art (except in Seattle), and this has helped Lynch and Lacy. Williams isn't them, but he could possibly benefit from that same dynamic.
* I hadn't read some of the posts after this one when I wrote the response, Lacy and Sanders were mentioned there, too. One thing that I noticed, is though build up speed is frowned on, he is pretty freaking fast for his size when he gets in the clear. It isn't an accident that he led the nation in rushing. There were a lot of times he wasn't caught from behind by smaller defenders (pretty much every defender but DL and DE-like 3-4 OLBs will be smaller than Williams). Even if we call it the typically dreaded build up variety, he seems to have deceptive game speed in the clear. Those long strides eat up a lot of ground (if not quite as much as old school Olympian Alberto "El Caballo" Juantarena).
One way I parsed Williams and West was situational. Williams has only a 29 year old journeyman in front of him, if Wilson is done.
West has a younger, more talented Tate in front of him (he may not be re-signed, but if he does well, stays healthy, isn't too expensive in a cratering RB market, he could be around beyond 2015). Crowell could be more formidable competition than Wilson by default. West is also 24, Williams 21, I think (?). If the newly imported GB passing attack clicks for Eli, Cruz, OBJ and Randle, Williams could have a lot of scoring opportunities.
** I think there was a 3-4 game stretch, making an improbable late Heisman run before a late injury, in which he had the most yards in that admittedly small time frame since, ironically, Barry Sanders.
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EBF
Footballguy
Well, Jennings is a journeyman if ever there was one. But I think you also saw exactly why he was brought in. He's capable. He's not going to win you any games, but he can keep you in a game. Kind of like the RB version of a starting pitcher with a 4.20 ERA. That guy will never be at the All-Star game, but he'll probably always have a job. Same deal with Jennings. He does everything at a passable level. He's just not going to add any value beyond the replacement level production.
Williams is a more dynamic runner and I think that's what complicates this situation for people expecting Jennings to be some kind of a redraft steal. It just seems too likely that it's going to degenerate into some kind of RBBC. As far as dynasty goes, I had Williams ranked ahead of Jennings and Wilson before this game. Relative to what you can expect to pay, he's the guy who looks like he's going to provide the most value.
Yenrub
Footballguy
True but keep in mind that the left side of the Giants line tonight aren't expected to the starters
MAC_32
Footballguy
he isn't going to be a top rb because he is a liability in the pass game. It'd be easier to stomach his style if he were a passing downs back too, but he's not. That's why Demarco Murray has a fan club, not in it, but I get it.Williams current value represents a potential profit, but expecting anything more than a number two is setting yourself up for disappointment.
Michael Turner didn't have problem producing without catching passes. I think there's a place for Andre Williams in this league. If you watch the guy run, he's a nightmare. If you want to stack the box against him, fine. But Eli Manning is going to burn you.
Longterm, it'd be foolish not to acquire Andre Williams. He's one injury away from seeing 10+ carries a game including at the goalline.
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Football Jones
Footballguy
It's not wise to assume a guy can'y improve. Williams has already improved a great deal and he can pass block. Coughlin recently made a comment that he didn't come here as a complete back, but is well on his way.
He certainly deserves to be ranked slightly lower in PPR leagues, but this dude is going to gain a lot of yards and score a boatload of TDs over the course of his career. And again, don't assume a player can't improve on a skill like catching the ball, especially a guy with the work ethic and intelligence of Williams.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
I wouldn't expect Williams to be a one as he stands now for the reason you cited. There aren't a lot of exceptions, maybe Michael Turner and Alfred Morris in recent years. It would help if he could learn pass protection, than he wouldn't be a complete liability in the passing game. These days there aren't many three down RBs any more, so if he becomes a hammer for Coughlin and designated goal line runner (sounds like he already is the latter, on paper), there are worse alternatives. West looked like a much more natural pass catcher, even downfield and not just dump offs in the flat.
Football Jones
Footballguy
Very good point on Turner. It's like downgrading a top QB prospect because he doesn't get many rushing yards.
Plus, feature backs are getting very rare. Williams is good enough to be a feature back whether he catches a ton of passes or not. He can certainly become proficient enough to catch some screens, swing passes, etc. Like I said, he's already improved a great deal.
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Giants O'line will be good this year but they will need time to gel. They used at least 7 different combinations last year.They should be better and deeper at every position this year.
RT - Pugh will improve on his rookie season
RG - Mosely or Jerry or Richburg will be an improvement over Snee and Diehl (Last Year)
C - Walton or Richburg are an improvement over Baas, Cordle and Booth
LG - Shwartz is a huge improvement over Brewer, Booth and whoever else played there
LT - Beatty has to play better or Charles Brown will take over (This is their biggest ? on the Oline)
Plus they have much more depth on the OLine than they had last year
MAC_32
Footballguy
the potential to improve is accounted for with every young player, i don't expect it out of anyone though. You are what you were on tape until you show otherwise. Williams is a down hill heavy footed freight train in seek and destroy mode on every carry that comes equipped with a nice set of hammer hands. That has value, but I think his ceiling is capped relative to other young players.
Faust
MVP
Football Jones
Footballguy
My point is he's already improved, surpassing his tape in college (actually, there wasn't any tape of him catching the ball in college since he wasn't thrown to). He looked bad catching the ball at the Combine and then drastically improved by his Pro Day. He's now improved further. I also don't see heavy-footed at all. In fact, just the opposite for a 230 pound back.
That said, we all see things differently. We'll have to agree to disagree.
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EBF
Footballguy
I don't think he's heavy-footed. He just has such a long and deliberate stride that I think he's anatomically ill-equipped to make really nifty cuts and weave through traffic. Talk of him as a plodder has always been off the mark though. You could see at the combine that he's a very solid athlete with some decent movement skills:
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000332941/2014-Combine-workout-Andre-Williams
http://www.baltimoreravens.com/videos/videos/NFLN-Andre-Williams-In-40-yard-Dash/cbafb6a9-8c55-4969-a47a-49a4b6b5624b
I have always thought his FF value would be highest in deep mandatory 2RB leagues. He can produce somewhere in the neighborhood of Alfred Morris and Brandon Jacobs. I do think he's a prime candidate to struggle with injuries, but the talent + situation combo is pretty good for the time being.
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Faust
MVP
Andre Williams with a strong debut:
http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york-giants/post/_/id/37611/andre-williams-with-a-strong-debut
http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york-giants/post/_/id/37611/andre-williams-with-a-strong-debut
Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
Agreed. But I still don't think the Giants are going to be an effective red zone scoring offense with either Jennings or Williams.
steveski
Footballguy
While I am happy as a Giants fan and as a Williams owner to see what I did last night, we need to calm our expectations here. A lot of his work came in when the Giants 1st team was playing against the Bills 2nd team. He did show nice burst, but he also had some nice holes to run through as well. I hope he learns to not try to dish out punishment at the end of every run though or else he won't hold up.
Definitely nothing but positives after watching him play last night but I wish I saw him run against some tougher competition. I'd like to see if he's one of those guys like Morris that always falls forward 2-3 yards even if he's hit behind the line or if he's more like Brandon Jacobs that only falls forward if he gets 5-10 yards to build up speed and get his power.
Definitely nothing but positives after watching him play last night but I wish I saw him run against some tougher competition. I'd like to see if he's one of those guys like Morris that always falls forward 2-3 yards even if he's hit behind the line or if he's more like Brandon Jacobs that only falls forward if he gets 5-10 yards to build up speed and get his power.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
I have him in a couple dynos, the real issue will be what do you do with him on 3rd down if he had a large role? I mean he can block im sure but my league doesnt give points for blocks , the value dip in ppr kinda tempers my expectations
MAC_32
Footballguy
I think taking Jennings in that range over what else is available is kinda crazy. He's the type of guy you try to find in season, not pay starter prices for on draft day.
Alf seems to be the default comp for a guy like Williams, but realistically that's probably his absolute ceiling. When the team doesn't do as well, there are less scoring opportunities, and they're playing from behind that sort of back has a tendency to not be as productive. 1275/7 is by no means a bad season, but you're at a disadvantage vs. the other good teams in your league if that's your lead guy. It's a fine #2, but a guy I'd rather have as more of a matchup type.
I think the good versions of Law Firm or Shonn Greene are more realistic upside expectations if he gets the workload. He runs with more power than both, but the lack of lateral movement + long speed limits things like they did with both of them.
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
The Giants are going to be playing catch up lots. That means a lot of passing and a lot of Jennings. For redraft there is not much value there as he is going to be way to reliant on tds. At best he is a rb 4/5 unless there is an injury to Jennings.
You saw how they are going to be used last night. You'll have no one to blame but yourself
Chaka
Footballguy
So which is it?
I agree that Williams looks poised to contribute significantly even if Jennings stays healthy (Brandon Jacobs scored 7 TDs as a rookie and 9 TDs in his second year as little more than a goal line back for Coughlin) but if Jennings goes down I don't think we are going to see Williams become a full time featured back, that job will most likely go to the guy who knows his assignments best and until he gets cut that guy is most likely Hillis.
Chaka
Footballguy
I agree although I think next season is more likely, barring injuries of course.
Khy
Footballguy
Agreed, people are getting WAY ahead of themselves. When the Giants #1s were playing the Bills #1s it was all Jennings on the field. And to the people saying Jennings isn't valuable enough as a 3-5th round pick in redrafts this year are high. Realize there were only two drives of 1s vs 1s (NYG O vs BUF D). Each was a 3 and out (well Eli fumbled on the 2nd drive after a first down) but 7 plays in total none the less. Of those 7 plays... 5 of them went through Jennings. Then when they came back out against the 2nd team for the Bills they ran 11 plays in total 5 of which went through Jennings. So 18 plays and Jennings amounted for 10 of them. Obviously, he can't maintain that type of ratio in a real season game. But to everyone freaking about Williams, relax he saw 4 plays with the #1 offense against the #2 defense. Jennings got more touches than him with the #1 offense even after the #2's came out for Buffalo.
To me? The biggest take away from last night that everyone seems to be ignoring. Rashad Jennings caught 3 passes on 7 offensive snaps. If anything, his value is arrow up for me and with the Williams production the other big takeaway from me would be to arrow down the WRs as that O-Line looked like a dumpster fire covered in sh%7 last night. Eli was more or less snapping the ball and getting it away to his RB because he was about to be laid a second or two later. I have a feeling these may have a lot of screen game type production this season with less to go around for the actual wide-outs. Think Kansas City (or Detroit minus Calvin) more so than Green Bay.
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MAC_32
Footballguy
Situation is definitely in favor of Jennings, but I don't like drafting meh talents in the first few rounds. Those are the non-injury types that usually bust. If he were slipping further, sure, but he's not, so someone else can take the risk. I'll probably be drafting pass catcher's in those rounds.
Mr Non Sequitur
Footballguy
Nice post and with the Giants still not "identifying"(NBC Crew) their TE, someone from the RBs will be called upon for dump offs and it looks like Jennings might have a career year. Jennings is 29 but far from abused in the NFL, had 36 receptions in Oakland last season, Eli is an upgrade over whatever was there last season.
I also think Williams will get a lot of the goal line work when they want to punch it in. Question for Williams supporters...he just entered the game, as a defense what do you think the Giants are going to do? With Jennings you are not sure, with Williams it seems t be run. You don't want to be predictable so I feel that works against Williams being the lead back this season.
Khy
Footballguy
Exactly, and even when they do "identify" their TE, he's going to suck. I'd be shocked if their TE caught more than 40 passes this season. I wouldn't be surprised if Jennings approaches that 45-55 reception range on the basis that he'll have to catch that many because Eli's going to be under pressure far too much.
As for Williams on the goal-line, yeah I mean... if he's in there you really don't have to cover the screen as that dude couldn't catch HIV if he chugged and infected blood vial. He's in there to run the ball and that's it, just like Wilson in his rookie year. They'd take out Bradshaw, Wilson would come in and have 8 in the box and just get leveled before he even took the handoff.
As for EBF's post of Williams getting 150-180 carries? Without a Jennings injury, I don't see how that's even remotely feasible. He'll come in to spell Jennings a few times a game and get the goal line looks. I'd be shocked if he got more than 5-8 touches a game though which would put him in that 125ish range. And I doubt he averages that, there's going to be games where he doesn't see more than 1-2 goal line looks. I'd say he gets about 100-125 carries this season MAX.
The Giants under Coughlin averaged 451 rushes a season if you take away last year where they ran for 381. That's a swing of 70 rushing attempts. Coughlin OBVIOUSLY wants to get back to what won them two titles in the past which was the running game. I'd be shocked if they ran less than 425 plays on the ground this year. So even if by some miracle Williams took 180 carries, you're still talking 245 carries left over. Take away a few for random QB runs and stuff. You're probably still looking at the worst case for Jennings to be like 230 rushes and around 50 receptions which as long as he doesn't pull a Ray Rice with 3.1ypc puts him in solid RB2 range, with or without Williams.
floods
Footballguy
For those who own Jennings in dynasty, when's the right time to buy Williams? Now when the pre-season hype train is rolling, but before Jennings gets hurt? Week 3 when Jennings is getting 70% of the snaps and catching a ton of passes?
Seems like he's being taken in the front half of the 3rd round of rookie drafts. Do you think his value has changed given Wilson's condition?
Seems like he's being taken in the front half of the 3rd round of rookie drafts. Do you think his value has changed given Wilson's condition?
Mr Non Sequitur
Footballguy
If New York is up 1-2 TDs going into the late 3rd/early 4th, certainly Williams will see more action when they are ahead and trying to chew up clock. How often will that scenario happen for NY? I am more likely to think they will be behind or close and need a RB who is a dual threat and can help them get back into the game.
Small things to think about before folks get overly excited about Williams...he did look good though, amiright?
Small things to think about before folks get overly excited about Williams...he did look good though, amiright?
Shutout
Footballguy
You know his draft spot just bumped up; people can't help it. But KHY seems dead on with this. Good take on what went down last night and what might be.
Overall, I think a month ago he was a second-half of the 2nd round pick, by virtue of his position and I think he is now.
Khy
Footballguy
If this is true, it's a really depressing thing to happen
On the fantasy side of it though, this probably bumps Williams up quite a bit now and more importantly in the future. A big reason Williams was going so late in dyno's is because of Wilson's presence and the hope he'd turn into the guy we always hoped he could be... but if he is indeed done? You have to bump Williams, although... my bet would be on the Giants looking to the 2nd-3rd round next season to try and grab a more complete back than Williams as McAdoo's system relies to heavily on the screen game, something that Williams is (as I said above) a dumpster fire at doing.
Ok thats how you saw it ... and I strongly suspect that you have already drafted Jennings.
Now for an impartial analysis ...
Jennings started as expected and the Giants mixed Williams in starting on the 3rd drive (presumably because they didn't get a chance to get him in on the 1st 2 drives due to 3 and outs) They both came out of the game after the 1st quarter having split carries evenly 7 and 7.
Jennings looked very slow hitting holes on the first couple of carries but better on the 3rd drive ... Williams looked far more dynamic (quicker, faster, & stronger) from his 1st carry on
Best case for you ...
Jennings is going to start and split time and if he stays healthy will probably end up with around 200-220 total touches around 950-1050 yds and 7 tds
Williams about 140-160 touches 650-750 yds and 8-10 tds
Khy
Footballguy
It's not a matter of "how I saw it" or "I own Jennings" I'm in about 13 leagues, yes I own Jennings in one or two of them I think. I own almost everyone in the top 50 in one league or another. So I'm just as impartial as the next guy.
Saying that Jennings looked like crap on the first two drives then looked a lot better on the 3rd drive and Williams looked better too only proves my point.
This offensive line was H-O-R-R-I-B-L-E in their first outing. Hopefully they can improve on that and get better. Bear in mind that Williams didn't see a single carry vs the Bills 1st team defense. So you had a 1st team offensive line vs 2nd string defense, obviously that made Jennings and Williams look good.
The point I was trying to make was simply, if the line doesn't get much better... Williams will have garbage value in all likelihood. While Jennings could pull a stunt where he ends up with like 225-245 carries and 50-60 receptions because Eli has to dump off the pass after he finishes his drop every play because the O-Line is that bad.
I'd like to have seen Williams field 2-3 touches vs the Bills 1st team defense before I jumped to conclusions that he looked that much better than Jennings.
To say "They both came out of the game with 7 carries" is silly... the fact is Williams didn't touch the ball or even come in the game vs the Bills #1s. Whether that was scripted or just coincidence is neither here nor there, we have 2 drives to evaluate 1st team vs 1st team and Williams wasn't in there to evaluate during that time.
Loan Sharks
Not a Wolf
I just listened to a interview with Williams on NFL radio.
Me personally I take personality and intellect into account when evaluating a player. To me it translates indirectly into work ethic and availability(no Justin Blackmon disappearances)
Williams is a smart dude. This guy gets it. He is humble and knows his strengths and weaknesses and is busting his butt to work on things.
He was genuinely shook up about Wilsons career being over so he seems like a good guy.
If you consider character a intangible I give this guy a A+
Me personally I take personality and intellect into account when evaluating a player. To me it translates indirectly into work ethic and availability(no Justin Blackmon disappearances)
Williams is a smart dude. This guy gets it. He is humble and knows his strengths and weaknesses and is busting his butt to work on things.
He was genuinely shook up about Wilsons career being over so he seems like a good guy.
If you consider character a intangible I give this guy a A+
EBF
Footballguy
50 catches is pretty optimistic for Jennings. That would rank him around the top 10-15 RBs in the NFL. A few scrubs managed to eclipse that mark last season (Moreno, J Bell). But generally that's the territory of pass-catching specialists/dynamic playmakers like Woodhead, Sproles, Bush, McCoy, Charles, and Bernard. Jennings has a career best of 36 catches in a season. It's possible that he'll top 50 this year, but maybe not likely and certainly not a given.
When it comes to situations where there's no clear proven starter, my typical strategy is to target the most talented player assuming that the cream will rise to the top. Therein lies my problem with Jennings. I believe he's the second most talented runner on his own team (ignoring Wilson). I can't confidently project workhorse carries for a player like that. I'll maintain that this is likely to be an ugly RBBC and that Williams could even wrestle away the majority of the carries by the end of the season.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
How is that relevant, when he's been a career backup? - playing behind a very good pass catching back in MJD.EBF said:
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
With the new WC offense being installed, let's say Williams does vulture 10 carries/game (which I think is optimistic), I think the Giants want to run the ball 425-450 times this year at a minimum. Still leaves 265-290 carries out there. Not all would go to Jennings, but it's fair to think that he'd get 200 at a minimum.
One pre-season game also doesn't mean much, but his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield could at the very least produce 40-45 receptions. Say he averages 4 YPC and 7 YPR (and these figures represent low ones)...were still talking about 1100 YFS as an absolute floor. And I'll also say this...veteran reliability always gets underplayed this time of year. I would think that Jennings won't get frozen out of red zone opportunities because on versatility alone, having Jennings in the game allows for doubt about the play call. if it is a pass, Williams isn't an option, Jennings is.
I think Jennings is a solidly safe RB2 with some decent but not spectacular upside.
One pre-season game also doesn't mean much, but his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield could at the very least produce 40-45 receptions. Say he averages 4 YPC and 7 YPR (and these figures represent low ones)...were still talking about 1100 YFS as an absolute floor. And I'll also say this...veteran reliability always gets underplayed this time of year. I would think that Jennings won't get frozen out of red zone opportunities because on versatility alone, having Jennings in the game allows for doubt about the play call. if it is a pass, Williams isn't an option, Jennings is.
I think Jennings is a solidly safe RB2 with some decent but not spectacular upside.
EBF
Footballguy
That's a fair point, although he had a good opportunity in Oakland.
I don't think Jennings is some kind of a big weapon in the passing game. He's not a Sproles, Bush, or Bernard. He's just a mediocre big back who has the ability to catch the ball. It's a nice attribute, but more as a safety valve than a guy who commands targets. If you look at the backs who had 50+ catches last year, most of them are a lot more dynamic. The closest thing to him is Joique Bell, who played on a very pass-happy team. I won't say it's impossible for Jennings to duplicate his production, but already gave some reasons for my reluctance to invest in him.
I also think people assuming that Andre Williams has absolutely zero to offer in the passing game might be exaggerating things a little bit. Williams is no Bernard/Sproles in his own right, but then again neither is Jennings. If he can just function as a reliable safety valve then that will take away a lot of the advantage that Jennings holds over him. Bear in mind that Coughlin has typically had a soft spot for two-down types with spotty receiving skills (Brandon Jacobs, Andre Brown). Given that, his BC ties, and the fact that I simply think Williams is a more dynamic talent than Jennings, and I'm just not getting on the Jennings bus.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Wilson to IR,
