Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter IHEARTFF
- Start date
TampaMike19
Footballguy
He is a popular "sell" candidate but he definitely has shown he deserves more attention as an offensive weapon. This offense can be pretty decent next year with healthy pieces, another WR, maybe upgrade Jamaal Williams (Craig Reynolds? lol)
Blick
Footballguy
I think I'm a buyer at late 1st value. I certainly don't expect him to keep this ridiculous pace. However, I could see a high floor, low ceiling WR2/3 for years to come. Especially in PPR. I don't think I've seen a negative report on him. Works hard, studies, blocks, good teammate, etc., etc.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
WR2 over the last 4 weeks, WR26 on the year (full PPR.)
16 teams took a WR before him. I know that because I’ve heard him mention it every time he does an interview.
He’s a really good kid. All the assistant coaches who work with him say he’s just a different kind of rookie. He’s not a great athlete - doesn’t have elite size or speed or strength. He just does a lot of things well: good hands, loves to block, works hard at his craft (footwork, release, route running.) Catches 201 balls from the juggs machine every day after practice, tremendous work ethic, insane workout regime. Everything you’d like to see from a young player.
Low ceiling IMO. Will never be a WR1 or play the X; he is exactly what they drafted him to be, a flanker/slot guy who knows how to get open. Gonna be in the league for 10-12 years if he stays healthy. Complementary player to the talent alongside him.
FF wise, really depends on scheme and situation. Campbell is an old school Parcels guy who wants to run the ball, build a good defense, take the air out of he ball. I think they’ll be a low volume offense for the foreseeable future. I expect them to acquire an alpha WR this off-season and the replacement for Goff the following year.
Love him as a football player. A bit indifferent about him as a FF prospect rn. Expecting his redraft price to have a little helium next summer, so we’ll have to see if he’s a value or not.
As a football fan, thrilled the Lions found a foundation piece of the rebuild on Day 3.
16 teams took a WR before him. I know that because I’ve heard him mention it every time he does an interview.
He’s a really good kid. All the assistant coaches who work with him say he’s just a different kind of rookie. He’s not a great athlete - doesn’t have elite size or speed or strength. He just does a lot of things well: good hands, loves to block, works hard at his craft (footwork, release, route running.) Catches 201 balls from the juggs machine every day after practice, tremendous work ethic, insane workout regime. Everything you’d like to see from a young player.
Low ceiling IMO. Will never be a WR1 or play the X; he is exactly what they drafted him to be, a flanker/slot guy who knows how to get open. Gonna be in the league for 10-12 years if he stays healthy. Complementary player to the talent alongside him.
FF wise, really depends on scheme and situation. Campbell is an old school Parcels guy who wants to run the ball, build a good defense, take the air out of he ball. I think they’ll be a low volume offense for the foreseeable future. I expect them to acquire an alpha WR this off-season and the replacement for Goff the following year.
Love him as a football player. A bit indifferent about him as a FF prospect rn. Expecting his redraft price to have a little helium next summer, so we’ll have to see if he’s a value or not.
As a football fan, thrilled the Lions found a foundation piece of the rebuild on Day 3.
Last edited by a moderator:
Very good description. I see him as a much better NFL player than FF player. Given the right team and situation could be a nice FF player (think Welker/Edelmen type) that typically gets overlooked. Unfortunately that won't be the case next year coming off this finish and he will get overdrafted. It will take a year or two of underperforming his draft slot in FF to find his niche in that world and return value.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
styleride85
Footballguy
Really? Why do you think he will be overdrafted? He looks absolutely amazing and has been the #2 fantasy WR over the last 5 weeks of the season. I think he's likely to be UNDER drafted next year.
foxco
Footballguy
Definitely possible, though do you think if DET brings in a true #1 type it hurts his targets?
styleride85
Footballguy
Not sure how he's not a true #1. If he performs next year like he has the last 5 weeks (he wont), he's a high first rounder in fantasy drafts. He likely doesn't even go the top 5 rounds. Even at 50% of his production of the last 5 weeks, he's a top 4 round value.
JamboTaylor
Footballguy
He’s ending the season very well at least
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
boy I'm no @Instinctive when it comes to this WR projection stuff
119 targets 90-912-5 receiving + 7-61-1 running + 2 2-pt conversions
WR23 in full PPR
I think he is in a perfect storm for targets/usage. Hockenson was out, no WR1 and no Swift. There really was nobody else. Don't get me wrong. He is a very good NFL player but as I said I think he will be better for NFL than he will be in FF.styleride85 said:
Based on his finish I expect him to be drafted quite high but I don't think he wjll return the performance that his draft price will require.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
In the postgame Goff praised him and rattled off all his good qualities, then said “If we don’t have injuries to Tyrell and Cephus abs Hock and Swift, does he finish this strong? Probably not. But that’s the NFL - when you get a chance, you have to maximize, and he did.”
Aiyuk a year ago…5 or 6 game hot streak to end the year. Without Samuel. Without Kittle. Was OK the second half but absolute dust bin the first half.
I think ARSB is a long time starter in this league. Does a lot of things well. But fantasy wise, it’s no slam dunk he’s on a linear upward path. Especially if they’re active in FA and/or take WR with the Rams pick.
In some ways that he was able to do that when he was the lone focal point tells you how good he is. Jameson and Chark burner speed will take away the safeties as well as the best and fastest corners. Amon-Ra will still be the primary chain mover even with Hock healthy. Amon-Ra won't have the volume he did the last 5 games, but the Lions offense will be much improved. His YPC will be higher as he is a very tough runner with sneaky elusiveness. I would still expect a minimum of 1100 yards and 6 TDs which puts his floor at WR15. More likely his numbers look like 1200-1300 yards and 8-10 TDs, so a WR6 thru WR12 guy. He will be Goff's favorite target.
Last edited by a moderator:
This is why o think he will be over drafted. There will be someone in every league thinking this and draft accordingly. I think fantasy wise he will be a WR2/3 but you will have to draft at WR1/WR2 prices.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Agreed. If the price in redraft is reasonable I’ll get him. If someone reaches for him, I won’t lose sleep.
His value seems to be a little overhyped. i got him back in a package Dynasty deal and I’m happy to have him. But if someone offered me a late 1st for him I’d have a hard time not smashing accept.
And if not, he’s a nice asset to have - just not worth drafting as a WR1 based on the down the stretch production.
nittanylion
Footballguy
I can buy ARSB finishing somewhere between WR25-36 overall, provided he plays a full slate...but I'd be stunned if he finishes inside the top 24. I'm somewhat bullish on the Lions offense improving...more so incrementally than exponentially. I'm on board with Goff running the offense better in year 2, sure. Running it better/more efficiently, along with adding Chark and Jameson, IMHO, is going to lead to more diversification of targets/stats, and a flatter curve. Sure Chark, Williams, and let's not forget Reynolds - he's making the Team, and Cephus and Raymond probably are, and they'll catch at least a few passes. Plus Swift, and Jamaal Williams and Hockenson will all be netting targets in the same area of the field as ARSB.
Lions offense isn't going to be one of the more prolific in the NFL (I think right around the middle is correct), so an average size pie, at best, with a lot of people eating out of it. TD's? I don't see a path to 8 max. 6 is an ultra-reasonable projected expectation.
If his ADP is anwhere inside the top 24, I have assets I feel have more potential and upside to be acquiring with those draft picks. JMHO.
Lions offense isn't going to be one of the more prolific in the NFL (I think right around the middle is correct), so an average size pie, at best, with a lot of people eating out of it. TD's? I don't see a path to 8 max. 6 is an ultra-reasonable projected expectation.
If his ADP is anwhere inside the top 24, I have assets I feel have more potential and upside to be acquiring with those draft picks. JMHO.
Gatorman
Supreme Elite Maximum Tier
I feel like this is the usual discussion of a player that showed out on a limited sample set that we all discount and then goes on to keep proving it until the rest of the world catches on. See Boldin, Anquon; Thomas, Michael; Edelman, Julian.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
For 2022 at least, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle.
ARSB was brilliant for a long stretch of games, and quite a bit of it was YAC. Paired with Goff’s propensity to check down & dump it off, it’s a match made in heaven.
While Hock & Swift will indeed take some of those targets, I have a hard time believing the team will in any way scheme away from ARSB, given what he did last year. As I said before, there’s no putting that genie back in the bottle. They know what they have in him, and they’ll keep going to the well. And for certain Goff likes throwing the ball to him. I feel like people tend to discount that connection in these discussions.
Chark is a completely different asset, and as a field stretcher, I’m not convinced this offense & Goff’s arm are well suited to his abilities. But he might well take pressure off of ARSB, Hock, & Swift as he’ll demand coverage.
If Reynolds was anything special he would have shown it last year when more targets were available, and the Lions probably wouldn’t have gone out and picked up a couple more WRs, IMO. He seems like a JAG.
I like ARSB for a 1000+/7 season, with let’s say, 90 receptions. That’s 5.29/game, ~35% fewer than that magical stretch. It would make him a rock solid WR2, with potential to sneak into WR1 territory with a little luck (he’s also used in the run game and TDs can be fickle).
If I can draft him outside the top 24 WR in redraft, I’m in.
If I can trade him for a late 2023 1st in dynasty, I’m also in.
Gatorman
Supreme Elite Maximum Tier
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Yes, this is where I'm at. A whole lot of pieces out of an average size pie. Everyone is going to eat, but let's just hope that none of them are too hungry.
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
Somehow, I have Aiyuk and ARSB on my dynasty team.
Hopefully he doesn't follow the same path... Talented kid, monster rookie 2nd half in a vacuum of other talented options followed by being eclipsed by two other talents. At least he's not in the doghouse that we know of and his coaches seem to think he's worth continuing to feature in the offense. And sprinkle in a little hope that they'll be not a totally run dominant team.
Love the points y'all are making. I'm trying to keep my hopes in check.
Targets in the last 6 weeks of the season: 12,12, 11,11,11,10
Hoping he can keep in the 7-10 range for most games.
He reminds me a bit of Edelman. Very gritty kid.
Hopefully he doesn't follow the same path... Talented kid, monster rookie 2nd half in a vacuum of other talented options followed by being eclipsed by two other talents. At least he's not in the doghouse that we know of and his coaches seem to think he's worth continuing to feature in the offense. And sprinkle in a little hope that they'll be not a totally run dominant team.
Love the points y'all are making. I'm trying to keep my hopes in check.
Targets in the last 6 weeks of the season: 12,12, 11,11,11,10
Hoping he can keep in the 7-10 range for most games.
He reminds me a bit of Edelman. Very gritty kid.
Cadence calls
Footballguy
Dude is mentally and physically strong.
Yeah, hes Not a FF alpha, but he can fill out a lineup pretty well.
Ya gotta have those kinds of guys on your roster.
Its a long season. And you need depth.
Nobody has Chase, Jefferson, Kupp, Deebo.
Id love him as my WR3, and I’d be rosey cheeked if I drafted him last year
in the late 2nd/early third. Found money.
Not much to complain about the guy considering his buy in price.
Yeah, hes Not a FF alpha, but he can fill out a lineup pretty well.
Ya gotta have those kinds of guys on your roster.
Its a long season. And you need depth.
Nobody has Chase, Jefferson, Kupp, Deebo.
Id love him as my WR3, and I’d be rosey cheeked if I drafted him last year
in the late 2nd/early third. Found money.
Not much to complain about the guy considering his buy in price.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Hard Knocks: Amon-Ra lists all 16 WRs taken before him
That was incredible. Stone cold, you could tell he’s probably thinking along the lines of “I’m going to bury every one of these guys. I’m better than all of them.”
Love the chip on the shoulder. Love the work ethic, the 202 juggs balls he catches after every practice, the insane two hour workouts with his dad every day. He’s a stoic dude and I would not bet against him. He’s not a great athlete, he doesn’t have the draft capital, but he’s the type of guy you build your team around. He’s hungry, he’s got that inner dog, and you want those kind of players in your locker room and on the field.
That was incredible. Stone cold, you could tell he’s probably thinking along the lines of “I’m going to bury every one of these guys. I’m better than all of them.”
Love the chip on the shoulder. Love the work ethic, the 202 juggs balls he catches after every practice, the insane two hour workouts with his dad every day. He’s a stoic dude and I would not bet against him. He’s not a great athlete, he doesn’t have the draft capital, but he’s the type of guy you build your team around. He’s hungry, he’s got that inner dog, and you want those kind of players in your locker room and on the field.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Last year, rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown was already one of the league's best at creating separation at the catch point. Here's a quick look.
According to Next Gen Stats, St. Brown was generating an average of 3.5 yards of separation at the catch point. This number doesn't mean anything by itself, but giving context shows that St. Brown is among the league's elite route runners, already. Some notable WRs and their separation stat:
Cooper Kupp: 3.6 yards
Tyreek Hill: 3.6 yards
Hunter Renfrow: 3.5 yards
Jaylen Waddle: 3.3 yards
Deebo Samuel: 3.3 yards
Chris Godwin: 3.3 yards
Diontae Johnson: 3.2 yards
Keenan Allen: 3.1 yards
CeeDee Lamb: 3.1 yards
DeAndre Hopkins: 2.8 yards
I could keep going, but I think you get the point. The numbers back it up too - he just gets open, and wide open at that.
Excited to see St. Brown's performance this season.
According to Next Gen Stats, St. Brown was generating an average of 3.5 yards of separation at the catch point. This number doesn't mean anything by itself, but giving context shows that St. Brown is among the league's elite route runners, already. Some notable WRs and their separation stat:
Cooper Kupp: 3.6 yards
Tyreek Hill: 3.6 yards
Hunter Renfrow: 3.5 yards
Jaylen Waddle: 3.3 yards
Deebo Samuel: 3.3 yards
Chris Godwin: 3.3 yards
Diontae Johnson: 3.2 yards
Keenan Allen: 3.1 yards
CeeDee Lamb: 3.1 yards
DeAndre Hopkins: 2.8 yards
I could keep going, but I think you get the point. The numbers back it up too - he just gets open, and wide open at that.
Excited to see St. Brown's performance this season.
Finished last season during his last 6 games in half point PPR with
19.6 pts
11.3 pts
19.5 pts
21.4 pts
29.4 pts
22.1 pts
Because the lions acquired a few players, and drafted a rookie at WR (Jameson Williams) he has not been getting near as much hype as he deserves. The last 6 games of the season you could see that Lions figured out how to use him more, and even started using him on a couple of designed running plays each game. Goff looks to him whenever he needs a first down or a big play. I know the argument is the Lions had nothing else at WR behind him last year, but maybe the argument should be that he is just a really good player? I mean he was a rookie, and put up some crazy numbers down the stretch, and I still don't see how his value goes down at all in his 2nd year. I have him in both my leagues as his value was so low, and the potential to be a top 10 WR.
He scored all 6 of his tds during the last 6 games. Overall stats during the last 6 games were
51 receptions
560 yards
5 rec tds
7 rushing attempts
61 rushing yards
1 TD
What are everyone else's thoughts on this guy?
19.6 pts
11.3 pts
19.5 pts
21.4 pts
29.4 pts
22.1 pts
Because the lions acquired a few players, and drafted a rookie at WR (Jameson Williams) he has not been getting near as much hype as he deserves. The last 6 games of the season you could see that Lions figured out how to use him more, and even started using him on a couple of designed running plays each game. Goff looks to him whenever he needs a first down or a big play. I know the argument is the Lions had nothing else at WR behind him last year, but maybe the argument should be that he is just a really good player? I mean he was a rookie, and put up some crazy numbers down the stretch, and I still don't see how his value goes down at all in his 2nd year. I have him in both my leagues as his value was so low, and the potential to be a top 10 WR.
He scored all 6 of his tds during the last 6 games. Overall stats during the last 6 games were
51 receptions
560 yards
5 rec tds
7 rushing attempts
61 rushing yards
1 TD
What are everyone else's thoughts on this guy?
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Kind of guy quarterbacks love. Strong FLEX play in standard and likely WR2 in PPR. If the Lions take a little leap maybe even more.
I'm pretty high on St.Brown. I actually thought he looked a lot like Chris Godwin. I'm not super concerned that most/all of his production came with Hockenson out, but that might be something that makes me a little lower on both in week 1, just to see how the pecking order works. I've got them as WR19 and TE7 respectively.
I think St.Brown's YPC should go up a bit, with more talent around him. I do think 110+ catches is on the table, but I don't see the TD's being all that high, due to Hockenson being the top target in the redzone.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Excellent player with a really solid floor. Just not sure about a high ceiling with everyone else healthy (for now), and it being the Lions and all.
Chaka
Footballguy
So much for everyone being healthy Ragnow missed practice after being limited yesterday and Vai...the starting guard with the name is apparently out.
More of an impact on Swift, than ARSB probably but it won't help Goff if both are out, that's for sure.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I see the addition of Chark and healthy return Hock and Swift as positives. They occupy different roles on the field.
Players don’t get targets bc they’re the last man standing. ARSB earned targets bc he gets wide open separation
FWIW, C Evan Brown started 12 games past year and acquired himself well - PFF grade was 66.8. Not Pro Bowl level you get from Ragnow, who is probably Detroit’s best football player when healthy, but hardly a disaster.
RG Halapoulivaati Vaitai is out at least 4 weeks. His PFF grade is like 69, so basically the 5th best OL. He was mostly a career backup and the previous regime overpaid for him. He’s just OK.
His replacement is Tommy Kraemer, UDFA who started 3 G last year. His PFF was 56 and that’s about right - he has some issues. We have some other options to try but he’s first man up.
Both replacements graded out better in run blocking than pass pro last year.
Detroit was second in man games lost for starters last year. This ain’t fun, you can’t lose a Pro Bowl center and say NBD. But Hank Fraley is a great positional coach and we’re deeper and better at OL than we were in 2021.
Players don’t get targets bc they’re the last man standing. ARSB earned targets bc he gets wide open separation
FWIW, C Evan Brown started 12 games past year and acquired himself well - PFF grade was 66.8. Not Pro Bowl level you get from Ragnow, who is probably Detroit’s best football player when healthy, but hardly a disaster.
RG Halapoulivaati Vaitai is out at least 4 weeks. His PFF grade is like 69, so basically the 5th best OL. He was mostly a career backup and the previous regime overpaid for him. He’s just OK.
His replacement is Tommy Kraemer, UDFA who started 3 G last year. His PFF was 56 and that’s about right - he has some issues. We have some other options to try but he’s first man up.
Both replacements graded out better in run blocking than pass pro last year.
Detroit was second in man games lost for starters last year. This ain’t fun, you can’t lose a Pro Bowl center and say NBD. But Hank Fraley is a great positional coach and we’re deeper and better at OL than we were in 2021.
Chaka
Footballguy
Thanks @BobbyLayne I appreciate your knowledge of all things Lions.
But, man, I went Lion crazy in my draft: Swift RB1, ASRB WR3, Goff QB3 (super-flex so he'll likely play for me at some point) & Jamaal Williams RB6 & backstop.
Apart from Hard Knocks fever I sincerely believe they have the potential to be the top o-line in the NFL this year. A lot of that depends on Ragnow's presence.
Plus, the NFL is more fun when the Lions are competitive.
But, man, I went Lion crazy in my draft: Swift RB1, ASRB WR3, Goff QB3 (super-flex so he'll likely play for me at some point) & Jamaal Williams RB6 & backstop.
Apart from Hard Knocks fever I sincerely believe they have the potential to be the top o-line in the NFL this year. A lot of that depends on Ragnow's presence.
Plus, the NFL is more fun when the Lions are competitive.
the more and more I research this guy.. he is like "Cooper Kupp" lite. 425 yards after the catch. The first half of the season the Lions weren't using him correctly. He was running a lot of deeper routes, which doesn't make any sense. Once they figured out the right way to use his skill set by the end of the season he exploded. They also started winning games and he was a big factor in this. Those 425 yards after the catch were 20th in the NFL among receivers. I would argue that based on his skill set that he could be top 5 in that category this year. This is a guy that can help win championships because he is being undervalued. Super pumped to watch him this year!
Banger
Footballguy
agreed. I think a lot of people are overthinking things. Goff likes to pass short and ASB gets open and catches the ball. QB's love to rely on guys like that that can be where they are supposed to be and can move the chains. I don't expect that insane pace he had to close the season but he can certainly get 100 catches.
The Frankman
Footballguy
Banger
Footballguy
Maybe I was wrong…maybe he can keep up the pace…..
Bozeman Bruiser
Footballguy
Great read, appreciate it! Hope Amon-Ra is able to break a few more records this weekend. He isn't as flashy as the LSU duo or boom as big as them or Kupp but damn he is consistent as hell. Lots of good company on these lists.
From the link in Zep's post:
Most consecutive games with 8+ receptions -- NFL history
- Michael Thomas (Saints) -- 8 (2019)
- Antonio Brown (Steelers) -- 8 (2014)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) -- 7 (2021-2022)*
- Travis Kelce (Chiefs) -- 7 (2020)
- Anquan Boldin (Cardinals) -- 7 (2005)
Most consecutive games with 8+ receptions and a TD -- NFL history
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) -- 5 (2021-2022)*
- T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Bengals) -- 5 (2007)
- Odell Beckham Jr. (Giants) -- 4 (2014)
- Cris Carter (Vikings ) -- 4 (1999)
Most receptions in NFL -- since Week 12 of 2021 season
- Cooper Kupp (Rams) -- 73
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) -- 63
- Davante Adams (Packers/Raiders) -- 61
- Mark Andrews (Ravens) -- 56
- Diontae Johnson (Steelers) -- 55
Most receiving yards in NFL -- since Week 12 of 2021 season
- Cooper Kupp (Rams) -- 934
- Justin Jefferson (Vikings) -- 856
- Mark Andrews (Ravens) -- 717
- Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals) -- 717
- Davante Adams (Packers/Raiders) -- 715
- Tee Higgins (Bengals) -- 672
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) -- 647
Most receiving TD in NFL -- since Week 12 of 2021 season
- Cooper Kupp (Rams) -- 7
- Davante Adams (Packers/Raiders) -- 7
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) -- 6
- Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals) -- 6
- Justin Jefferson (Vikings) -- 6
These 2 are especially impressive since St. Brown is still in the first 20 games of his career. Other than Beckham everyone else was an established Pro Bowl player.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I doubted him during the off-season but started coming around after looking into him more after a few posters here I think are smart (ok all you guys are smart 
) made compelling cases in here. I was unable to acquire him in any dynasty leagues, but took him in redraft so I’d have him on a team and couldn’t be happier.
) made compelling cases in here. I was unable to acquire him in any dynasty leagues, but took him in redraft so I’d have him on a team and couldn’t be happier.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Equanimous is never gonna amount to much but it was kind of cool they scored TDs two minutes apart last weekend.
Amon-Ra is a good technician, he's worked hard at his craft. But his best attribute is his determination. The work ethic is a huge positive, but there's never a shortage of workout kings in the NFL. He is very strong mentally. You could tell in early OTAs after he got drafted last year he was just a different kind of player.
St Brown (4th rnd) and ILB Malcolm Rodriguez (6th rnd) this year - he's strong like bull - are a testament to how good Brad Holmes is at evaluating talent. Finding talent that is ready from the get go on Day 3 is such a huge win for roster construction.
