Is It Getting Harder For NFL Teams To Hit On WR With Later Round Draft Picks (Pick 100+)? (1 Viewer)

[Anarchy99]

Recent drafts have had a lot of production out of receivers, but they usually come at a premium and are Day 1 or Day 2 picks. The game has mostly become more passing oriented and most teams have 2-3 receivers that get a lot of targets. I arbitrarily picked 1,000 yards receiving as a data point, as well as Pick 100 in the draft as lines in the sand. Here are the receivers from the past 30 draft classes that had a WR drafted Pick 101 or later that had at least one season with 1,000 receiving yards in a season. Obviously, more recent receivers have played fewer seasons (thus limiting how likely they are to have 1,000 yards in a season). I can't assert that the list is 100% accurate. There may be other UDFA's . . . but trying to remember them all is difficult.

2022 - 0
2021 - Amon-Ra St. Brown (112)
2020 - Darnell Mooney (173)
2019 - Hunter Renfrow (149)
2018 - 0
2017 - 0
2016 - Tyreek Hill (165), Robby Anderson (Undrafted)
2015 - Stefon Diggs (146)
2014 - Adam Thielen (Undrafted), Allen Hurns (Undrafted)
2013 - 0
2012 - Marvin Jones (166)
2011 - Doug Baldwin (Undrafted)
2010 - Antonio Brown (195), Victor Cruz (Undrafted)
2009 - Brian Hartline (108), Julian Edelman (232)
2008 - Pierre Garcon (205), Steve Johnson (224)
2007 - Steve Breaston (142)
2006 - Brandon Marshall (119), Marques Colston (252), Miles Austin (Undrafted), Lance Moore (Undrafted)
2005 - Nate Washington (Undrafted)
2004 - Jerricho Cotchery (108), Wes Welker (Undrafted)
2003 - Brandon Lloyd (124), Mike Furrey (Undrafted)
2002 - 0
2001 - T.J. Houshmandzadeh (204), Drew Bennett (Undrafted)
2000 - 0
1999 - Brandon Stokley (105), Donald Driver (213)
1998 -
1997 - Marcus Robinson (108), Albert Connell (115)
1996 - Joe Horn (135), Patrick Jeffers (159)
1995 - Rod Smith (Undrafted), Wayne Chrebet (Undrafted)
1994 - Willie Jackson (109), Bill Schroeder (181)
1993 - Troy Brown (198)
Are teams drafting more WR than they used to (thus making it harder to find a sleeper)? Are teams doing more scouting to find better receivers and drafting them earlier than they used to? Is hitting on a later round receiver (or finding an undrafted one) little more than dumb luck? Any other thoughts or ideas?

 

[Snotbubbles]

My gut reaction is that the league has changed into a more passer friendly league and therefore teams have put a greater importance on the WR position and thus draft it early and often. I guess the follow-up analysis would be how many WRs were drafted at pick 101 or later each year. Maybe my instinct is correct, maybe not.

 

[Anarchy99]

My gut reaction is that the league has changed into a more passer friendly league and therefore teams have put a greater importance on the WR position and thus draft it early and often. I guess the follow-up analysis would be how many WRs were drafted at pick 101 or later each year. Maybe my instinct is correct, maybe not.

# of WR drafted by round and total drafted:

    1    2    3    4+    Total
2022    6    7    4    11    28
2021    5    5    5    19    34
2020    6    7    4    20    37
2019    2    7    4    16    29
2018    2    6    2    23    33
2017    3    3    8    18    32
2016    4    3    2    22    31
2015    6    3    5    21    35
2014    5    7    3    18    33
2013    3    3    5    17    28
2012    4    5    4    20    33
2011    3    4    4    17    28
2010    2    2    8    15    27
2009    6    2    7    19    34
2008    0    10    5    20    35
2007    6    3    8    17    34
2006    1    4    5    23    33
2005    6    5    3    17    31
2004    7    3    3    18    31
2003    3    5    4    25    37
2002    3    8    3    20    34
2001    6    4    2    23    35
2000    5    3    7    18    33
1999    3    2    4    23    32
1998    3    7    5    16    31
1997    4    3    1    17    25
1996    5    6    2    20    33
1995    3    2    4    23    32
1994    4    7    6    15    28
1993    3    4    2    19    28

 

[Gatorman]

I think that there were some guys that peaked under your dividing line. Dolphins had a few slot guys that were undrafted that did well, but not to the tune of 1000 yards.

 

[SoBeDad]

2015 was a tough year for highly drafted WRs. The hit rate for recent highly rated WRs seems to be better. Better sample college size for evaluators? Or better college QBs and coaches?

Pro Bowl: Cooper (4) Lockett (69)
A couple of good years: Parker (14)
Meh or worse: White (7), Algholor (20), Perriman (26), Dorsett (29), D Smith (37), DGB (40), Fynchess (41), Strong (70), Conley (76), Coates (87), Montgomery (94)

 

[CletiusMaximus]

I recall seeing some analysis some time ago indicating the WR position in general has a high comparative bust rate across the first couple rounds as well. Of course how you define things matters, but I believe the conclusion from the piece I read is that WR and DL have the highest bust rates for the first few rounds. OL had the highest success rate. Guys outside the first 100 are going to be slim pickens but even the first and second rounds aren't much better than 50/50 for WRs.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

College Football is an assembly line for good Wide Receivers and talent
20+ get drafted every year it seems
The 1st Rd selections of late super talented, flash great potential very early and some look they will have very long productive careers like Chase-Waddle-DSmith
Too tempting to grab these guys in the 1st and 2nd Rd, slot them in as your #2/#3 WR on a rookie deal for 4 years
Then you pair them with an established WR, doesn't always have to be an All Pro

 

[joey]

Recent drafts have had a lot of production out of receivers, but they usually come at a premium and are Day 1 or Day 2 picks. The game has mostly become more passing oriented and most teams have 2-3 receivers that get a lot of targets. I arbitrarily picked 1,000 yards receiving as a data point, as well as Pick 100 in the draft as lines in the sand. Here are the receivers from the past 30 draft classes that had a WR drafted Pick 101 or later that had at least one season with 1,000 receiving yards in a season. Obviously, more recent receivers have played fewer seasons (thus limiting how likely they are to have 1,000 yards in a season). I can't assert that the list is 100% accurate. There may be other UDFA's . . . but trying to remember them all is difficult.

2022 - 0
2021 - Amon-Ra St. Brown (112)
2020 - Darnell Mooney (173)
2019 - Hunter Renfrow (149)
2018 - 0
2017 - 0
2016 - Tyreek Hill (165), Robby Anderson (Undrafted)
2015 - Stefon Diggs (146)
2014 - Adam Thielen (Undrafted), Allen Hurns (Undrafted)
2013 - 0
2012 - Marvin Jones (166)
2011 - Doug Baldwin (Undrafted)
2010 - Antonio Brown (195), Victor Cruz (Undrafted)
2009 - Brian Hartline (108), Julian Edelman (232)
2008 - Pierre Garcon (205), Steve Johnson (224)
2007 - Steve Breaston (142)
2006 - Brandon Marshall (119), Marques Colston (252), Miles Austin (Undrafted), Lance Moore (Undrafted)
2005 - Nate Washington (Undrafted)
2004 - Jerricho Cotchery (108), Wes Welker (Undrafted)
2003 - Brandon Lloyd (124), Mike Furrey (Undrafted)
2002 - 0
2001 - T.J. Houshmandzadeh (204), Drew Bennett (Undrafted)
2000 - 0
1999 - Brandon Stokley (105), Donald Driver (213)
1998 -
1997 - Marcus Robinson (108), Albert Connell (115)
1996 - Joe Horn (135), Patrick Jeffers (159)
1995 - Rod Smith (Undrafted), Wayne Chrebet (Undrafted)
1994 - Willie Jackson (109), Bill Schroeder (181)
1993 - Troy Brown (198)
Are teams drafting more WR than they used to (thus making it harder to find a sleeper)? Are teams doing more scouting to find better receivers and drafting them earlier than they used to? Is hitting on a later round receiver (or finding an undrafted one) little more than dumb luck? Any other thoughts or ideas?

Since you seem to have the data in hand and “easily” filterable (he says with fingers crossed) I’d be interested to see if you drew the line at picks after 62 (ie include the 3rd round of the NFL Draft) what kind of WRs would then be on your list. Only interested in seeing the last 10-ish years if that makes it easier.

 

[Anarchy99]

Since you seem to have the data in hand and “easily” filterable (he says with fingers crossed) I’d be interested to see if you drew the line at picks after 62 (ie include the 3rd round of the NFL Draft) what kind of WRs would then be on your list. Only interested in seeing the last 10-ish years if that makes it easier.

I'm not 100% sure of what you mean or are looking for, but here are the WR that were drafted in the 3rd round over the past 10 drafts that have had at least one 1,000 yard receiving season.

2019: Diontae Johnson (66), Terry McLaurin (76)
2018: Michael Gallup (81)
2017: Cooper Kupp (69), Chris Godwin (84), Kenny Golladay (96)
2015: Tyler Lockett (69)
2014: John Brown (91)
2013: Kennan Allen (76)

Since I didn't include the 3rd rounders when I put things together, I don't have anything to compare that to. Basically, I have no idea if that is more, less, or the same vs. earlier drafts.

 

[Chaka]

Probably a lot of factors as well as a lot of noise in the data (are Lance Moore, Steve Breaston, Albert Connell etc really big success stories?).

I imagine the fact that more college offenses are incorporating more pro techniques in their schemes, the increased practice opportunities throughout the offseason for younger players and much better physical training and recovery technologies have led to better performance from highly drafted players at the position which, necessarily, limits the opportunities for lesser drafted guys.

I would also guess more NFL offenses are employing schemes that distribute the ball with greater frequency beyond the top two receiving options leaving fewer targets for anyone not at the top of the pecking order.

But who knows?

 

[ZWK]

My guess is that a big part of this is fewer non-FBS guys slipping through the cracks. A lot of these WRs were non-FBS, especially if we set a higher bar than a single 1000-yard season: Thielen, Cruz, Garcon, Colston, Austin, ... . Either the NFL is getting better at scouting FCS receivers so that the good ones get drafted in the first 3 rounds, or FBS college are getting better about getting the good receivers (incld via transfer) so that fewer of the good receiving prospects are hidden away at small schools.

Though I'm unsure which of the older guys went to non-FBS schools (or the equivalent at the time). Would it be easy for you to separate the list into an FBS list and a non-FBS list?

 

[RC94]

I think it's a combination of factors, but one thing that seems to have changed is the patience level of the coaching staff towards WRs and QBs. There used to be that 3rd year breakout as a time when people would look for top prospects to solidify themselves as good players. I think the expectation now is 2 years. Players taken later in the draft may need more time to develop, but they may not be getting as much time as before because the coaches want to see that development earlier.

 

[joey]

Since you seem to have the data in hand and “easily” filterable (he says with fingers crossed) I’d be interested to see if you drew the line at picks after 62 (ie include the 3rd round of the NFL Draft) what kind of WRs would then be on your list. Only interested in seeing the last 10-ish years if that makes it easier.

I'm not 100% sure of what you mean or are looking for, but here are the WR that were drafted in the 3rd round over the past 10 drafts that have had at least one 1,000 yard receiving season.

2019: Diontae Johnson (66), Terry McLaurin (76)
2018: Michael Gallup (81)
2017: Cooper Kupp (69), Chris Godwin (84), Kenny Golladay (96)
2015: Tyler Lockett (69)
2014: John Brown (91)
2013: Kennan Allen (76)

Since I didn't include the 3rd rounders when I put things together, I don't have anything to compare that to. Basically, I have no idea if that is more, less, or the same vs. earlier drafts.

Thanks for that.

I was just interested if their was a big jump in # of WRs in round 3 vs Rounds 4-7. It’s interesting to see that that single round on its own has as many “hits” as the next 3 rounds combined. Kind of expected results but was just curious. Thanks again.