Pipes
Footballguy
You could be right too none of us know. Something about this kid jumps out at me but he's also a woman beating punk. I'm really curious to see how things shake out with this kid.
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The 1.01: Cook or Fournette (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter georg013
- Start date
That depends not only on your needs but also on where each lands. All I know is if I'm sitting at five in a rookie draft and he's the guy left, I won't be at all bothered.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
trader jake
Footballguy
He also has a run in with some meter maid after getting a ticket. Maybe that's no biggie in comparison to his punch, but ripping a ticket up in front of her seems to point to, at minimum, an impulse control issue. Doesn't mean he can't overcome it and mature, just another small piece of information to consider when evaluating his NFL prospects.
Don't see any way Mixon is selected in the first 4 rounds. Maybe if he played another position, but he plays one of the most fungible positions, the class around him at RB is stacked, and he has a major incident that is also very public...that sure seems to add up to 6th, 7th, or UFA.
Cookiemonster
Footballguy
Cookiemonster
Footballguy
The reason they fall to the 5 spot is because they didn't have the value of the top 2. Be that talent, opportunity or situation, in any combination thereof, is why the top picks are top picks and why 5th picks usually happen to fall into crappy spots and have talent, or have opportunity but less talent. If Mixon is a 4th round pick or higher, and has any kind of opportunity, he could be the fourth rookie pick or better. Odds are, he goes 6th or later to a team that was already built well enough at that position to take on such a risk. In that case, if you spent the 5th pick on him, you probably passed up a better option.
To give my comp on him, oddly enough he looks like Forte did to me coming out of college, and I didn't think much of Forte back then either. Perhaps is is as good as you think, but even if he is, he has to overcome the image he has built himself and that will take some long-term dedication.
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trader jake
Footballguy
Like Alvin Kamara. If an owner is just going to swing on upside at RB 5th overall at least.
Cookiemonster
Footballguy
I like him more than Mixon as a runner. Mixon has a great set of mitts, but I like the way Kamara runs. Could be Kendall Hunter. Could be better. Probably still too small to get a lot of touches, but again. . . Situation. If he slips into a Woodhead type role, he could help a roster from the 5th spot. And that is why it's the 5th spot. Is he like J. Charles and puts on 10-15 pounds of strength when he gets to the league, or 20+ like Ray Rice and have a drunken roid rage on camera? Well, I'd guess the last statement would probably apply to a different type of RB. Both of those guys went 5th or later in rookie drafts. CJ2K was around that range then too. Two of those three helped me win more than a couple titles.
Just because a guy falls to the number five rookie pick doesn't mean the guys taken ahead of him end up being better. I remember a draft not long ago when the consensus top three picks were Trich, Doug Martin, and the Oklahoma St WR who drugged himself right out of the league. Sure I'd rather have Fournette or Cook, but I'll be more than happy if I end up with Mixon.
This. I have the #3 pick, it was from a different team and all year I was hoping for a top 2 so I could get cook. He won the last week which wrecked that plan so now if cook doesn't fall to me somehow then I'm fine with taking mixon at 3 if his landing spot is mostly favorable.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I'm amazed how each year a lot of you ignore red flags. I have too in the past and I hope I've learned my lesson, but no way I take this red flag over someone like Mike Williams or Corey Davis.
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My bad, I would more than likely take both of the players you mentioned unless I was totally set at WR and had a huge hole at RB. I was mostly referring to having the number five rookie pick and assuming those four guys would be gone.
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Gandalf
Footballguy
I agree. It's a huge risk with your first round pick when you could have Williams or Davis.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Or he learned something and is maturing, and what would have otherwise been a much worse incident ended up him tearing up a piece of paper instead.Maybe he just hates women and treats them as subhumans.
steelers1080
Footballguy
Most people have Mixon at 5 behind both those WRs. So it's more of a comparison between Mixon and Juju/Foreman/McCaffrey/Perine/etc.
steelers1080
Footballguy
The lowest I've seen Cook ranked by "expert" analysts is #2 (non-ppr, standard scoring rankings). The lowest I've seen Fournette so far is #7 (Behind Cook, Mixon, Williams, Davis, Perine, and McCaffrey - Not saying I agree, just putting what they put). What are some reasons for this discrepancy? Is it that he's not seen as a pass catching back? Or is there more to it?
Sidenote, both LSU and FSU rank in the top 7 for Rushing Offensive Lines in 2016. Stanford was 48th, OK was 12th, and Texas was 59th. So maybe the running of McCaffrey and Foreman was more impressive?
Sidenote, both LSU and FSU rank in the top 7 for Rushing Offensive Lines in 2016. Stanford was 48th, OK was 12th, and Texas was 59th. So maybe the running of McCaffrey and Foreman was more impressive?
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Because they all have risks. No rookie is immune to busting. A guy like Mixon simply has "more" risks - how much more depends on personal opinion I suppose. Consider that you're pretty much starting at 50/50 - how much more risk do Mixon's flags add?
I generally look more at payout potential than risk factor. His talent is off the chart, he's never had health concerns, his game perfectly fits today's NFL. His ceiling is outrageous.
georg013
Footballguy
Anyone who selected David Johnson early would have been called crazy. Now, go back in time and he is likely in consideration for the 1.01. Smart drafters will take their guy when they feel he should be taken, not where NFL.com suggests he should be taken. If I believed in him, I would pull the trigger early if I thought someone else was poised to steal him. Seems people these days are more concerned with style points and name value than actual production.
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Hankmoody
Footballguy
I think you are agreeing with me? I learned long ago to just take "your guy" and be done with it. It's much less painful to pick a guy and be wrong about it than it is to know you have a secret, try to slow play it, and see someone else snag David Johnson in between your picks.
You are correct, that we know if. I don't know what your point is, if you have one.
Spike
Footballguy
I'm going to disagree with this. If you were talking about Bush as a collegiate prospect, that's one thing; when someone compares a player to Bush as a pro prospect, it's because (by and large) Bush failed as a FF player at the pro level (given his extremely high draft pedigree). You don't have a player go #2 to a high-powered offense essentially fail like he did who is later talked about as a GOOD comp.
I'm not sure Bush really failed with the Saints, as much as injuries & coaching limited him. Bush was drafted to be a weapon along side Deuce McAllister. He had 88 receptions his rookie year, followed by 73 in his second year (in only 12 games). Even after McAllister got hurt in 2007, the Saints didn't really up Bush's rushing workload. Bush wouldn't be the only RB that Sean Payton has misused over the years. He had 1000 yard rushing seasons later in his career with both Miami & Detroit.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
While Bush may have disappointed some folks I am not sure if that is fair.
In standard league scoring Bush was RB 17 and RB 19 in his first two seasons. He then had 3 down seasons where the highest he finished was RB 35. This was when Bush was age 23 to 25 which are typically some pretty big seasons for a RB. However Bush was injured, each of those years except for his rookie season, playing in 12, 10, 14, and 8 games respectively during those years. His RB 19 finish in year two for example he only played in 12 games. Bush had 73 receptions in those games which is slightly more than 6 per game and over 16 games was on pace for 97 receptions. Bush was helping his owners in the 12 games he played that year.
After Bush's 1st five seasons, he would be considered a disappointment. However Bush finished as RB 13, RB 14 and RB 11 his next 3 seasons, which makes Bush's career slightly above average for a good RB career that only provides two top 12 seasons.
In PPR Reggie Bush finished as RB 7 in 2013.
Now the hype for Bush was strong so finishing as a fringe top 12 at the position may not be meeting those high expectations, however he performed well enough that I think he was a successful NFL and fantasy player for five of his 11 seasons in the league, which is better than a lot of RBs have done.
It is a negative because of the uncertainty of a feature RB role, but the upside is appealing if he gets enough action in the passing game, which is an category I think McCaffrey is better than a lot of RB prospects, which is a positive reason I compare him to Reggie Bush.
In standard league scoring Bush was RB 17 and RB 19 in his first two seasons. He then had 3 down seasons where the highest he finished was RB 35. This was when Bush was age 23 to 25 which are typically some pretty big seasons for a RB. However Bush was injured, each of those years except for his rookie season, playing in 12, 10, 14, and 8 games respectively during those years. His RB 19 finish in year two for example he only played in 12 games. Bush had 73 receptions in those games which is slightly more than 6 per game and over 16 games was on pace for 97 receptions. Bush was helping his owners in the 12 games he played that year.
After Bush's 1st five seasons, he would be considered a disappointment. However Bush finished as RB 13, RB 14 and RB 11 his next 3 seasons, which makes Bush's career slightly above average for a good RB career that only provides two top 12 seasons.
In PPR Reggie Bush finished as RB 7 in 2013.
Now the hype for Bush was strong so finishing as a fringe top 12 at the position may not be meeting those high expectations, however he performed well enough that I think he was a successful NFL and fantasy player for five of his 11 seasons in the league, which is better than a lot of RBs have done.
It is a negative because of the uncertainty of a feature RB role, but the upside is appealing if he gets enough action in the passing game, which is an category I think McCaffrey is better than a lot of RB prospects, which is a positive reason I compare him to Reggie Bush.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Of course Bush's career was a bust relative to the hype and expectations he had coming into the league, which was basically that he'd be an even better Marshall Faulk.
That has little to do with the comparisons people are making to Bush here though, which are more comparisons to the role and career he actually did have. In PPR leagues I think most people would be pretty darn happy to get Reggie Bush's career out of a mid 1st round rookie pick that wasn't hyped up to be the next great fantasy difference maker, which McCaffrey certainly isn't.
That has little to do with the comparisons people are making to Bush here though, which are more comparisons to the role and career he actually did have. In PPR leagues I think most people would be pretty darn happy to get Reggie Bush's career out of a mid 1st round rookie pick that wasn't hyped up to be the next great fantasy difference maker, which McCaffrey certainly isn't.
Spike
Footballguy
That would be one of the dumbest trades ever. Even if it worked out for the Browns, it would be insanely stupid. The market sets the trade value and I just don't see that market for Garoppolo.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Hankmoody
Footballguy
You're not very good at this "making your point" thing. Are you suggesting he's more likely to repeat since it's not a drug habit or less likely? And how does that impact his bust factor? I can't tell if you are agreeing with me or what else you're trying to convey.
thatguy
Footballguy
He's agreeing with you. He's listing another positive for Mixon to add to the list you gave. He's saying his lack of a drug problem is another positive considering it is another common red flag, ala injuries etc., that Mixon doesn't raise.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I love Lance Zierlien's work, but he is really under-estimating how good Bo Jackson was and I hate this comparison of Jackson to Fournette who has not demonstrated the pure speed that Bo Jackson obviously had. It is a terrible comparison because of that.
I will be surprised if Fournette runs below 4.5
CabinFever
Footballguy
242? Just more man to love honey....
steelers1080
Footballguy
Jamal Lewis was 245 for his best season. Some big RBs are still fast and the weight helps them shed blockers. Might not be a detriment, but lots of people are speculating he'll lose weight after interviews, before his pro-day. Theory that many teams won't like his weight that high and that 235/230 would be best.
Unless Fournette has been lazy recently, it's going to difficult for him to lose 7-12 pounds in the next 12 days. May end up a goal by camp, but I can't see his pro day weight being much less than what he's at for the combine.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I listened to an interview with Fournette and he says he drank a lot of water before the weigh in. That it was all water weight and that he played at 235 last season.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Not really surprising.
One of the things about the NFL that is very American is that they seem to think bigger is better.
This comparison is one I have made so many times. It is one of the major themes of football.
Again, give me the RB with good vision, instincts and elusiveness over the big tank who runs pretty fast for his size. There are examples of this at pretty much every skill position where I can count on the majority of NFL executives to choose the big gulp over juice or tea.
steelers1080
Footballguy
Cook and Fournette against Common Opponents:
2015:
Cook - Florida, 26 Rush, 183 Yds, 7 avg. 3 Rec, 11 yds, 3.7 avg
Fournette - Florida, 31 Rush, 180 Yds, 5.8 avg. 1 Rec, 15 yds, 15 avg
2016:
Cook - Ole Miss, 23 Rush, 91 yds, 4 avg, 7 Rec, 101 yds, 14.4 avg
Fournette - Ole Miss, 16 Rush, 284 yds, 17.8 avg, 3 Rec, 25 yds, 8.3 avg
Both played Florida, but Fournette got injured during the game.
Cook and Fournette against top 20 defenses (2015 and 2016):
Cook - 2015: BC #2, 15 Rush/54 yds, 2 Rec/3 yds; Louisville #11, 22 Rush/163 yds, 4 Rec/60 yds; Houston #19, 18 Rush/33 yds, 2 Rec/26 yds
2016: Louisville #9, 16 Rush/54 yds, 1 Rec/8 yds; NC State #3, 18 Rush/65 yds, 2 Rec/17 yds; Boston College #5, 18 Rush/108 yds, 2 Rec/12 yds; Michigan #13, 20 Rush/145 yds, 3 Rec/62 yds
Fournette - 2015: Alabama #1, 19 Rush/31 yds, 0 Rec; Arkansas #12, 19 Rush/91 yds, 3 Rec/36 yds;
2016: Alabama #1, 17 Rush/35 yds, 1 Rec/8 yds; Wisconsin #4, 23 Rush/138 yds, 3 Rec/38 yds; Auburn #20, 16 Rush/101 yds, 2 Rec/4 yds;
The stats show players that are very talented and fairly evenly matched. I give the overall edge to Fournette for a couple reasons. First, in 2015 and 2016 Florida St.'s passing offense ranked 39 and 33 in the NCAA. Pretty good, but not amazing. LSU's ranked 108 and 101, aka pretty awful. This allowed defenses to stack the box against Fournette twice as often as they did against Cook: Fournette, 7 defenders or less 33% of time; Cook, 7 defenders or less 60% of the time. And finally, Fournette injured his ankle in the preseason, but because he's all LSU had to offer they kept trotting him out there to get it reinjured in the Wisconsin game and Auburn game instead of letting it heal properly (yes, he'll have to deal with this in the NFL as well) but even injured he put up good stats for half the year in 2016.
We won't know for a couple years who ends up being the better NFL player, but if they wound up in similar situations, I'd put my money on Fournette.
2015:
Cook - Florida, 26 Rush, 183 Yds, 7 avg. 3 Rec, 11 yds, 3.7 avg
Fournette - Florida, 31 Rush, 180 Yds, 5.8 avg. 1 Rec, 15 yds, 15 avg
2016:
Cook - Ole Miss, 23 Rush, 91 yds, 4 avg, 7 Rec, 101 yds, 14.4 avg
Fournette - Ole Miss, 16 Rush, 284 yds, 17.8 avg, 3 Rec, 25 yds, 8.3 avg
Both played Florida, but Fournette got injured during the game.
Cook and Fournette against top 20 defenses (2015 and 2016):
Cook - 2015: BC #2, 15 Rush/54 yds, 2 Rec/3 yds; Louisville #11, 22 Rush/163 yds, 4 Rec/60 yds; Houston #19, 18 Rush/33 yds, 2 Rec/26 yds
2016: Louisville #9, 16 Rush/54 yds, 1 Rec/8 yds; NC State #3, 18 Rush/65 yds, 2 Rec/17 yds; Boston College #5, 18 Rush/108 yds, 2 Rec/12 yds; Michigan #13, 20 Rush/145 yds, 3 Rec/62 yds
Fournette - 2015: Alabama #1, 19 Rush/31 yds, 0 Rec; Arkansas #12, 19 Rush/91 yds, 3 Rec/36 yds;
2016: Alabama #1, 17 Rush/35 yds, 1 Rec/8 yds; Wisconsin #4, 23 Rush/138 yds, 3 Rec/38 yds; Auburn #20, 16 Rush/101 yds, 2 Rec/4 yds;
The stats show players that are very talented and fairly evenly matched. I give the overall edge to Fournette for a couple reasons. First, in 2015 and 2016 Florida St.'s passing offense ranked 39 and 33 in the NCAA. Pretty good, but not amazing. LSU's ranked 108 and 101, aka pretty awful. This allowed defenses to stack the box against Fournette twice as often as they did against Cook: Fournette, 7 defenders or less 33% of time; Cook, 7 defenders or less 60% of the time. And finally, Fournette injured his ankle in the preseason, but because he's all LSU had to offer they kept trotting him out there to get it reinjured in the Wisconsin game and Auburn game instead of letting it heal properly (yes, he'll have to deal with this in the NFL as well) but even injured he put up good stats for half the year in 2016.
We won't know for a couple years who ends up being the better NFL player, but if they wound up in similar situations, I'd put my money on Fournette.
