Adam Levitan: If old guys are going to be the best guys, I'm going to lose. And I'm OK with that.
To me, the surprising starts by previously withered vets like
Antonio Gates,
Steve Smith Sr. and
Darren Sproles are not sustainable. There's a reason Gates averaged just 3.0 catches for 27.8 yards with one touchdown over the final eight games of last year. There are reasons why Smith was cut by the Panthers, Sproles was traded away for pennies. It's a long season and a young man's game.
I'll gladly keep betting on the guys ascending on their career arcs, the ones with talent on the verge of bubbling over. In the long run, Father Time is undefeated.
Daugherty: Gates scored more touchdowns on Sunday (three) than
Ladarius Green has targets this season (two). But I agree with Levitan. The young guns will come crawling back. The Chargers need Green. The Ravens need
Torrey Smith. These fast starts from players like
Steve Smith Sr. and Gates are luxuries, but not sustainable.
Another guy who's really going to put this theory to the test is
Arian Foster. He has 55 carries, putting him on pace for 440. That would break
Larry Johnson's single-season record by 24.
<a data-ipb="nomediaparse" data-cke-saved-href="
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http://www.rotoworld.com/player/NFL/9277/Bill-O" brien"="">While everyone seems to be talking about Foster's 55 carries, it seems like folks are overlooking
DeMarco Murray's 51. That's a 408 pace, which isn't sustainable. It's also concerning given Murray's propensity for missing games.
And going back to Levitan's point about the elder statesmen,
Steve Smith has 25 targets through the first two games, and
Torrey Smith has just nine. That's about as surprising as it gets for me. Logical thinking says this disparity ultimately evens out, but still, it's a very eye-opening gap in how frequently Flacco has looked to each player so far.
Daugherty: Couldn't agree more with Jeff re: Murray. You could argue his injury history is far more concerning than Foster's, and he's getting essentially the same amount of work.
With
Steve Smith, I've come across some interesting stats. Per Pro Football Focus, he's leading all receivers in missed tackles (10), and is third in yards after the catch (105). As a
big Torrey backer, I want Steve's fast start to be a fluke, but ... not 100 percent convinced it is. We'll see.
Levitan: Right,
Steve Smith has forced 10 missed tackles on just 13 catches this season. Last year, he forced a grand total of 16 missed tackles on 68 catches (including playoffs).
As for yards after catch, Smith is at an incredible 8.1 per reception this season. Last year, he was at 2.9 — also known as 98th in the league.
To me, the advanced stats only highlight that these first two weeks are fluky.
At age 35, he's far more likely to regress to last year's levels than sustain his current level of play.