EBF
Footballguy
After ~20 consecutive seasons of playing dynasty, I find myself in the strange position of not managing a team. I'd been shedding leagues for years and my final league folded after a 15 year run this past season. At present time I no longer have any vested interest in any players. I'm also watching less football than ever before. I don't have the passion or knowledge right now to put together comprehensive rankings, but I'm still playing in one redraft league and some people have inquired about rookie rankings, so I wanted to put some thoughts together.
Full disclosure: I watch very little football these days. These are just my rapid fire thoughts based on highlights.
I'm going to start out with the running backs and then hopefully get to the WR and TE later this week.
RB Bijan Robinson, Falcons - Nice player. Loose runner. Good size. Enough speed. No major weaknesses. At the same time, I can't help but feel that his talent is overstated. I've heard the term "generational" attached to his name. I don't see that. Barkley was appreciably bigger, more sudden, and possibly even faster. Peterson had more speed and vastly superior footwork/agility. Bijan is not among the top 3-4 RB prospects I've evaluated, but I do think he projects as a quality starter and probably a perennial top 10-15 fantasy RB. From a talent standpoint, I think he's closer to someone like Zeke or Jonathan Taylor than he is to someone like Saquon or Peterson. Very, very good, but not mind-bending. He doesn't have the "wow" reps that you would see from Bush, Peterson, Saquon, even Richardson in college. I'd feel good about getting him with the #1 rookie pick, but I don't think he's a freak.
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions - Noticeably lean and lacking leg drive. He's not truly small, but he's not going to break tackles with regularity in the NFL. Shifty runner with elite stopwatch speed. Comparing his tape directly to someone like Reggie Bush, I felt like his subjective explosiveness was not quite on the same godly level. However, he may be a little bit cleaner in his interior running and more powerful. My sense is that Detroit used such a high pick on him because they envision him as a versatile chess piece who can add chunk plays to their offense. It makes sense and he looks pretty good to me, but he didn't have me standing up in my chair at many points either. I'm taking a medium stance on him. I'd pick him if he fell to his typical ADP, but I'm not trading up to get him or sweating it at all.
RB Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks - Kind of a B-grade mixture of Matt Forte and Ryan Mathews. He's a little bit upright like them. He runs with some inherent tightness like Mathews, but also has some of that Forte game of making sharp cuts to evade. However, he's not as smooth as Forte or as explosive as Mathews. I see him as a high-level stopgap/rotational guy. He's a competitive runner and can be an effective temporary starter. When you think about the talent needed to hold down a starting RB role in the long-term, I think he falls short of that mark. It would surprise me if 3-4 years from now he's still relevant as more than a rotational option.
RB Kendre Miller, Saints - You can see a bit of a like-for-like comparison between him and Kamara. They both have nice north-south burst and versatility. I think Kamara has a little more thump and juice, but Miller is a decent approximation. Fair value in the 3rd round and potentially a starter for the Saints down the line. In terms of negatives, he hunts the edge constantly and didn't flash a lot of cutback ability or interior running in his clips. He's a bit straight-line, but not an awkward or stiff runner.
RB Tyjae Spears, Titans - Very, very good in terms of functional athleticism. Sudden runner with a nice burst of acceleration and a sneaky second gear. The glaring issue here is a lack of size/power. He's not very big and doesn't run through contact. Troubled by arm tackles. If he were 15 pounds heavier, I might be making a Joe Mixon comparison. Without the bulk, he may end up more like Michael Carter or Chase Emonds, which is to say a viable NFL run talent who lacks starter thump. The risk of investing in Spears is potentially getting stuck with a low volume committee back. He's a dynamic runner though.
RB De'Von Achane, Dolphins - Given his reputation as a sprinter, he's a little more powerful and elusive than you would expect. I think he'll have functional value in the NFL. The question is whether or not he's really going to be more than a role player. He's not a big guy and his game seems tailored more to a supporting role. I'm thinking he may have a career trajectory that looks like Khalil Herbert, which is fine, but not very enticing for FF purposes.
RB Tank Bigsby, Jaguars - Probably the first clear fade for me in this rookie RB class. He has an upright body type with long legs, which interferes with his ability to redirect and make sharp cuts in traffic. Long strider. I think he'll have difficulty accessing his speed and power in the NFL. Probably headed for a backup role before washing out of the league.
Full disclosure: I watch very little football these days. These are just my rapid fire thoughts based on highlights.
I'm going to start out with the running backs and then hopefully get to the WR and TE later this week.
RB Bijan Robinson, Falcons - Nice player. Loose runner. Good size. Enough speed. No major weaknesses. At the same time, I can't help but feel that his talent is overstated. I've heard the term "generational" attached to his name. I don't see that. Barkley was appreciably bigger, more sudden, and possibly even faster. Peterson had more speed and vastly superior footwork/agility. Bijan is not among the top 3-4 RB prospects I've evaluated, but I do think he projects as a quality starter and probably a perennial top 10-15 fantasy RB. From a talent standpoint, I think he's closer to someone like Zeke or Jonathan Taylor than he is to someone like Saquon or Peterson. Very, very good, but not mind-bending. He doesn't have the "wow" reps that you would see from Bush, Peterson, Saquon, even Richardson in college. I'd feel good about getting him with the #1 rookie pick, but I don't think he's a freak.
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions - Noticeably lean and lacking leg drive. He's not truly small, but he's not going to break tackles with regularity in the NFL. Shifty runner with elite stopwatch speed. Comparing his tape directly to someone like Reggie Bush, I felt like his subjective explosiveness was not quite on the same godly level. However, he may be a little bit cleaner in his interior running and more powerful. My sense is that Detroit used such a high pick on him because they envision him as a versatile chess piece who can add chunk plays to their offense. It makes sense and he looks pretty good to me, but he didn't have me standing up in my chair at many points either. I'm taking a medium stance on him. I'd pick him if he fell to his typical ADP, but I'm not trading up to get him or sweating it at all.
RB Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks - Kind of a B-grade mixture of Matt Forte and Ryan Mathews. He's a little bit upright like them. He runs with some inherent tightness like Mathews, but also has some of that Forte game of making sharp cuts to evade. However, he's not as smooth as Forte or as explosive as Mathews. I see him as a high-level stopgap/rotational guy. He's a competitive runner and can be an effective temporary starter. When you think about the talent needed to hold down a starting RB role in the long-term, I think he falls short of that mark. It would surprise me if 3-4 years from now he's still relevant as more than a rotational option.
RB Kendre Miller, Saints - You can see a bit of a like-for-like comparison between him and Kamara. They both have nice north-south burst and versatility. I think Kamara has a little more thump and juice, but Miller is a decent approximation. Fair value in the 3rd round and potentially a starter for the Saints down the line. In terms of negatives, he hunts the edge constantly and didn't flash a lot of cutback ability or interior running in his clips. He's a bit straight-line, but not an awkward or stiff runner.
RB Tyjae Spears, Titans - Very, very good in terms of functional athleticism. Sudden runner with a nice burst of acceleration and a sneaky second gear. The glaring issue here is a lack of size/power. He's not very big and doesn't run through contact. Troubled by arm tackles. If he were 15 pounds heavier, I might be making a Joe Mixon comparison. Without the bulk, he may end up more like Michael Carter or Chase Emonds, which is to say a viable NFL run talent who lacks starter thump. The risk of investing in Spears is potentially getting stuck with a low volume committee back. He's a dynamic runner though.
RB De'Von Achane, Dolphins - Given his reputation as a sprinter, he's a little more powerful and elusive than you would expect. I think he'll have functional value in the NFL. The question is whether or not he's really going to be more than a role player. He's not a big guy and his game seems tailored more to a supporting role. I'm thinking he may have a career trajectory that looks like Khalil Herbert, which is fine, but not very enticing for FF purposes.
RB Tank Bigsby, Jaguars - Probably the first clear fade for me in this rookie RB class. He has an upright body type with long legs, which interferes with his ability to redirect and make sharp cuts in traffic. Long strider. I think he'll have difficulty accessing his speed and power in the NFL. Probably headed for a backup role before washing out of the league.
