markrc99
Footballguy
Who does he have to be & why is it important?Who are you and why are you so awesome?
Who does he have to be & why is it important?Who are you and why are you so awesome?
Tag fail.@Hot Sauce; Given that even with a lighter workload you suspected Elliott prone to injury I found that he played through or missed time due to injury the past two seasons. You would agree that a player that no longer has it & one playing hurt isn't the same thing. Which is it, or is it something else?
It was 3 yards?Nice long TD
Haha - I know. I was making a little joke to myself because he was used in short yardage and earlier I said he usually scored from a long way out. Sorry - at a pool party drmkning & it sounded funny in my head.It was 3 yards?Nice long TD
Yeah I listened to a Podcast he did with FBG Adam Harstad (so I figure that's more than ok to share here lol) where they specifically talked about RS and Zeke, and Waldman pretty much said the opposite of what someone else posted in this thread. So either the poster had a bad source or really misconstrued something. I'm pretty sure Waldman didn't completely reverse his take over the course of 3 days. He especially hammered home the difference between possible and probable when talking about Zeke's usage; and much like I said earlier, went on to say based on RS usage last year, it should have very little impact on RS even if Zeke does get ~200 touches. RS doesn't have to give up anything from last season to allow Zeke to hit those numbers.FWIW Waldman wasn’t as pessimistic as someone suggested above.
Matt Waldman: Stevenson falls to the bottom half of my top 10 after being in the middle of that range. Elliott is just outside RB3 territory (RB38) and likely rising up my boards inside the top 36 at the position.
The changes are a significant increase for Elliott and a small decrease for Stevenson. Both are runs with a full toolbox of skills as runners, blockers, and receivers. Elliott remains one of the best pass blockers and decision-makers with the ball in his hands in the NFL.
Jason Wood’s excellent spotlight notes that the Patriots run the ball at a high rate no matter what scheme the team used during Bull Belichick’s tenure, averaging over 460 attempts over a 22-year period. I hear the new catchphrase for RB production is “opportunity is more important than talent.”
It’s likely both backs will earn at least 150-175 rushing attempts, and it's not unreasonable they each earn at least 200. Stevenson will earn at least 70 targets, likely more. Expect a split in rushing touchdowns, with Stevenson having a smaller but significant edge of 3-4 more than Elliott.
Hopefully I’m allowed to share that here. Again, didn’t see if this was exclusive site content or not.
Yep. I thought that was a bit odd since it was so incongruous.Yeah I listened to a Podcast he did with FBG Adam Harstad (so I figure that's more than ok to share here lol) where they specifically talked about RS and Zeke, and Waldman pretty much said the opposite of what someone else posted in this thread. So either the poster had a bad source or really misconstrued something. I'm pretty sure Waldman didn't completely reverse his take over the course of 3 days. He especially hammered home the difference between possible and probable when talking about Zeke's usage; and much like I said earlier, went on to say based on RS usage last year, it should have very little impact on RS even if Zeke does get ~200 touches. RS doesn't have to give up anything from last season to allow Zeke to hit those numbers.FWIW Waldman wasn’t as pessimistic as someone suggested above.
Matt Waldman: Stevenson falls to the bottom half of my top 10 after being in the middle of that range. Elliott is just outside RB3 territory (RB38) and likely rising up my boards inside the top 36 at the position.
The changes are a significant increase for Elliott and a small decrease for Stevenson. Both are runs with a full toolbox of skills as runners, blockers, and receivers. Elliott remains one of the best pass blockers and decision-makers with the ball in his hands in the NFL.
Jason Wood’s excellent spotlight notes that the Patriots run the ball at a high rate no matter what scheme the team used during Bull Belichick’s tenure, averaging over 460 attempts over a 22-year period. I hear the new catchphrase for RB production is “opportunity is more important than talent.”
It’s likely both backs will earn at least 150-175 rushing attempts, and it's not unreasonable they each earn at least 200. Stevenson will earn at least 70 targets, likely more. Expect a split in rushing touchdowns, with Stevenson having a smaller but significant edge of 3-4 more than Elliott.
Hopefully I’m allowed to share that here. Again, didn’t see if this was exclusive site content or not.
I got offered Stevenson straight up for Taylor. I am so torn on this right now. It's an extremely interesting value assessment problem.
Oof.I got offered Stevenson straight up for Taylor. I am so torn on this right now. It's an extremely interesting value assessment problem.
Going from Harris missing almost half the season to Zeke that almost always suits up has to be seen as a negative.Going from Harris to Zeke being there has to be seen as a positive.
Going from Harris who was hurt all the time to Zeke who averaged 2 YPC over his last 4 games last year and has looked like a shell of himself in the receiving game has to be seen only as an indictment of Strong & KHarris and therefore a neutral impact.Going from Harris missing almost half the season to Zeke that almost always suits up has to be seen as a negative.Going from Harris to Zeke being there has to be seen as a positive.
do this. immediately. most of the uncertainty is on the taylor side of the ledger. RS is just coming into his own. if you miss out on some sort of taylor rennaissance just write it off.I got offered Stevenson straight up for Taylor. I am so torn on this right now. It's an extremely interesting value assessment problem.
I would guess it will be closer to a 60/40 split between the touches RS and EE get, but with fewer rushing attempts than usual. I don't see them being able to stay in games by running a lot, so I expect more passing attempts (but not as many passes to the RBs . . . they may need to stay in and block with the OL issues). Even though it seems hard to predict who will get the ball, I still see 10% of the RB workload going to someone else (Strong or one of the player squad backs) with an injury here or there. If the total RB touches came in at 425, that would turn out to be RS 230, EE 153, other 42.I expect Zeke to have a legit role but if the plan is to go 50/50 with an aging RB you just signed to a 1 year deal in mid-August this offense is in more trouble than I thought.
Pollard is next level explosiveness compared to both Zeke and RS. Using Zeke to do more than spell Pollard makes less sense that using Zeke in a committee with RS.I can't believe that there would be anything bigger than the split Pollard had with Zeke, and we all saw what Pollard did with those touches.
Why would anyone be surprised by something seemingly everyone is expecting?The panel was surprised when Perry said Elliott will be Damien Harris and then some in terms of workload
I have not seen many people expecting Elliott to get 13-15+ touches a game. Most people have described his role as give-RS-a-breather / short yardage / some GL work = 6-8 touches a game. Maybe a couple places with a max of 10 touches a game. Perhaps I am looking in the wrong places.Why would anyone be surprised by something seemingly everyone is expecting?The panel was surprised when Perry said Elliott will be Damien Harris and then some in terms of workload
I didn’t quote anything about the # of touches, just that it seemed like everyone expected the Pats to bring someone in to replace Damian Harris.I have not seen many people expecting Elliott to get 13-15+ touches a game. Most people have described his role as give-RS-a-breather / short yardage / some GL work = 6-8 touches a game. Maybe a couple places with a max of 10 touches a game. Perhaps I am looking in the wrong places.Why would anyone be surprised by something seemingly everyone is expecting?The panel was surprised when Perry said Elliott will be Damien Harris and then some in terms of workload
What you describe is a maddening committee. The primary guy produces decent numbers, while the rest of the backs vulture a lot to keep him from being elite.There is a theory that the Patriots have been deploying maddening committees forever. I just wanted to challenge that narrative a little. (It was definitely true at one point, but we've moved on in my opinion)
In 2022 Rhamondre was RB8. 210/1040
In 2021 Harris was RB14 202/929
In 2020 Sony played 8 games, 79/449, I think he got traded, or maybe hurt, but they moved onto Harris who went 137/691 over 10 games. (14 touches per)
In 2019 Sony went 247/912 and James White had 95 targets, 72 catches. RB19.
In 2018 Sony went 209/931 in just 12 games. (Rookie season) (17 touches per + whatever receiving)
In 2017 Dion Lewis went 180/896 plus whatever though the air, he was RB15
In 2016 Blount went 299/1161 and was RB9
In 2015 Blount went 165/703 in just 12 games. (14 touches per)
In 2014 Vereen was the James White role and was RB20.
How far back do we need to go to dispell this alleged BB RB madness?
He's been through a ton of backs, sure, but when healthy he has ridden one of them, reliably, for the past decade. If he doesn't have a healthy back, he uses a satellite pass catcher to fake a run game via dump offs, which is the exact system Tom Brady took to TB that made Fournette a fantasy gold mine the last 2 years.
Zeke will get 8-12 touches per game and most likely the girl line work. Rhamondre will get 14-16 touches per game and dominate the passing work, which is 238-272 total touches, with plenty of work through the air which are the most valuable. Rhamondre didn't need more than 6 TDs to be top 10 last year, I doubt he will this year.
Zeke caps his upside, but he's still a solid low end RB1, high end RB2, getting drafted in the 3rd round as a high end RB2... I don't see the issue.
I'm still drafting a WR or QB over him at his ADP, but that's just how I build teams.
Not everyone can be elite.What you describe is a maddening committee. The primary guy produces decent numbers, while the rest of the backs vulture a lot to keep him from being elite.There is a theory that the Patriots have been deploying maddening committees forever. I just wanted to challenge that narrative a little. (It was definitely true at one point, but we've moved on in my opinion)
In 2022 Rhamondre was RB8. 210/1040
In 2021 Harris was RB14 202/929
In 2020 Sony played 8 games, 79/449, I think he got traded, or maybe hurt, but they moved onto Harris who went 137/691 over 10 games. (14 touches per)
In 2019 Sony went 247/912 and James White had 95 targets, 72 catches. RB19.
In 2018 Sony went 209/931 in just 12 games. (Rookie season) (17 touches per + whatever receiving)
In 2017 Dion Lewis went 180/896 plus whatever though the air, he was RB15
In 2016 Blount went 299/1161 and was RB9
In 2015 Blount went 165/703 in just 12 games. (14 touches per)
In 2014 Vereen was the James White role and was RB20.
How far back do we need to go to dispell this alleged BB RB madness?
He's been through a ton of backs, sure, but when healthy he has ridden one of them, reliably, for the past decade. If he doesn't have a healthy back, he uses a satellite pass catcher to fake a run game via dump offs, which is the exact system Tom Brady took to TB that made Fournette a fantasy gold mine the last 2 years.
Zeke will get 8-12 touches per game and most likely the girl line work. Rhamondre will get 14-16 touches per game and dominate the passing work, which is 238-272 total touches, with plenty of work through the air which are the most valuable. Rhamondre didn't need more than 6 TDs to be top 10 last year, I doubt he will this year.
Zeke caps his upside, but he's still a solid low end RB1, high end RB2, getting drafted in the 3rd round as a high end RB2... I don't see the issue.
I'm still drafting a WR or QB over him at his ADP, but that's just how I build teams.
You're expecting Rhamondre to go over 300 carries+targets?RS to good to be in anything close to a split. I'm guessing 70/30. Zeke can still contribute in a supporting role for sure though. Which is all the team is looking for when you sign a guy in mid-August.
We will all soon see though.
Wow I scrubbed this guy from my memory bankGillislee
I remember acquiring him cheap either during the offseason or near the end of a season before he went to the Patriots. Held him all offseason with some degree of hope. Then he had a huge week 1 and I was like "jackpot!!" Then, well, the rest is history.Wow I scrubbed this guy from my memory bankGillislee
He had 279 last year - so....yeah.You're expecting Rhamondre to go over 300 carries+targets?RS to good to be in anything close to a split. I'm guessing 70/30. Zeke can still contribute in a supporting role for sure though. Which is all the team is looking for when you sign a guy in mid-August.
We will all soon see though.
298 actually (targets not receptions).He had 279 last year - so....yeah.You're expecting Rhamondre to go over 300 carries+targets?RS to good to be in anything close to a split. I'm guessing 70/30. Zeke can still contribute in a supporting role for sure though. Which is all the team is looking for when you sign a guy in mid-August.
We will all soon see though.
It was only Rhamondre's second year for one, and was number 2 on the depth chart coming in. I took some time for him to seize the role - coming into this year he is the unquestioned lead guy. Zeke is old/slow/signed 2 weeks ago. Harris isn't special, but Zeke isn't even Harris at this point in his career. He will spell Rhamondre which is great, and may have a few goal line carries here and there. But, if the Pats have 15 rushing TD's my bet is Rhamondre has 10 of those.298 actually (targets not receptions).He had 279 last year - so....yeah.You're expecting Rhamondre to go over 300 carries+targets?RS to good to be in anything close to a split. I'm guessing 70/30. Zeke can still contribute in a supporting role for sure though. Which is all the team is looking for when you sign a guy in mid-August.
We will all soon see though.
Maybe, sure but, as with last season it seems very dependent on the health of his running mate.
Rhamondre's numbers didn't hold when Harris was available.
The real problem is how do we comp an O'Brien offense to whatever was going on last season?
Did he seize the role or was he the next man up when Harris got hurt?It was only Rhamondre's second year for one, and was number 2 on the depth chart coming in. I took some time for him to seize the role - coming into this year he is the unquestioned lead guy. Zeke is old/slow/signed 2 weeks ago. Harris isn't special, but Zeke isn't even Harris at this point in his career. He will spell Rhamondre which is great, and may have a few goal line carries here and there. But, if the Pats have 15 rushing TD's my bet is Rhamondre has 10 of those.298 actually (targets not receptions).He had 279 last year - so....yeah.You're expecting Rhamondre to go over 300 carries+targets?RS to good to be in anything close to a split. I'm guessing 70/30. Zeke can still contribute in a supporting role for sure though. Which is all the team is looking for when you sign a guy in mid-August.
We will all soon see though.
Maybe, sure but, as with last season it seems very dependent on the health of his running mate.
Rhamondre's numbers didn't hold when Harris was available.
The real problem is how do we comp an O'Brien offense to whatever was going on last season?
To the O'brien offense - that's a great question and I have no idea, but it can only go up from last year, that was atrocious.
Among RBs who had more than 50% of their team's carries inside the 5, Stevenson had the lowest success rate in the league (2 TDs on 7 carries). The corpse of Zeke was 3rd in the league in goal line TDs, trailing only Jamaal Williams and Derrick Henry. He was his usual successful self inside the 5. Stevenson is also a fumble risk, where Zeke had one fumble in 530 touches the last 2 years. Point being, while Stevenson is clearly the better back now, Zeke is going to get enough of the goal line work to cap Stevenson's upside. And to frustrate the hell out of his owners. Something Belichick is famous for.Did he seize the role or was he the next man up when Harris got hurt?It was only Rhamondre's second year for one, and was number 2 on the depth chart coming in. I took some time for him to seize the role - coming into this year he is the unquestioned lead guy. Zeke is old/slow/signed 2 weeks ago. Harris isn't special, but Zeke isn't even Harris at this point in his career. He will spell Rhamondre which is great, and may have a few goal line carries here and there. But, if the Pats have 15 rushing TD's my bet is Rhamondre has 10 of those.298 actually (targets not receptions).He had 279 last year - so....yeah.You're expecting Rhamondre to go over 300 carries+targets?RS to good to be in anything close to a split. I'm guessing 70/30. Zeke can still contribute in a supporting role for sure though. Which is all the team is looking for when you sign a guy in mid-August.
We will all soon see though.
Maybe, sure but, as with last season it seems very dependent on the health of his running mate.
Rhamondre's numbers didn't hold when Harris was available.
The real problem is how do we comp an O'Brien offense to whatever was going on last season?
To the O'brien offense - that's a great question and I have no idea, but it can only go up from last year, that was atrocious.
I am very high on Rhamondre and do believe he can hit 300 opportunities, but a 70% share of RB opportunities is a rare occurrence, maybe 5-6 guys per year hit that mark (Jacobs was at a whopping 84% last season).
The good news is as much as people like to talk about Zeke's pass protection, and I guess he is legitimately good at it, he has been substandard out of the backfield for at least three years now. That fact probably has a lot to do with Pollard doing well in that role but that's also what Rhamondre excels at so even if the Pats only call 90-110 attempts to RBs, I fully expect Rhamondre to see the lion's share of them.
Who knows about TDs but don't be surprised if Zeke sees a veteran bump around the goal line.
Yeah, I think at the one yard line Zeke will probably receive 80-90% (or more) of the RB carries.Among RBs who had more than 50% of their team's carries inside the 5, Stevenson had the lowest success rate in the league (2 TDs on 7 carries). The corpse of Zeke was 3rd in the league in goal line TDs, trailing only Jamaal Williams and Derrick Henry. He was his usual successful self inside the 5. Stevenson is also a fumble risk, where Zeke had one fumble in 530 touches the last 2 years. Point being, while Stevenson is clearly the better back now, Zeke is going to get enough of the goal line work to cap Stevenson's upside. And to frustrate the hell out of his owners. Something Belichick is famous for.Did he seize the role or was he the next man up when Harris got hurt?It was only Rhamondre's second year for one, and was number 2 on the depth chart coming in. I took some time for him to seize the role - coming into this year he is the unquestioned lead guy. Zeke is old/slow/signed 2 weeks ago. Harris isn't special, but Zeke isn't even Harris at this point in his career. He will spell Rhamondre which is great, and may have a few goal line carries here and there. But, if the Pats have 15 rushing TD's my bet is Rhamondre has 10 of those.298 actually (targets not receptions).He had 279 last year - so....yeah.You're expecting Rhamondre to go over 300 carries+targets?RS to good to be in anything close to a split. I'm guessing 70/30. Zeke can still contribute in a supporting role for sure though. Which is all the team is looking for when you sign a guy in mid-August.
We will all soon see though.
Maybe, sure but, as with last season it seems very dependent on the health of his running mate.
Rhamondre's numbers didn't hold when Harris was available.
The real problem is how do we comp an O'Brien offense to whatever was going on last season?
To the O'brien offense - that's a great question and I have no idea, but it can only go up from last year, that was atrocious.
I am very high on Rhamondre and do believe he can hit 300 opportunities, but a 70% share of RB opportunities is a rare occurrence, maybe 5-6 guys per year hit that mark (Jacobs was at a whopping 84% last season).
The good news is as much as people like to talk about Zeke's pass protection, and I guess he is legitimately good at it, he has been substandard out of the backfield for at least three years now. That fact probably has a lot to do with Pollard doing well in that role but that's also what Rhamondre excels at so even if the Pats only call 90-110 attempts to RBs, I fully expect Rhamondre to see the lion's share of them.
Who knows about TDs but don't be surprised if Zeke sees a veteran bump around the goal line.
Weird sort of romance/strategy, but hey, I don’t judge.and Dan Campbell simply dated opponents to stop him.
Absolutely more passing, if what O'Brien ran in Houston & at Alabama is any indication, expect more empty sets, RPOs & uptempo. So play pace will likely be up as well. Mac Jones, a product of Alabama, relevant in that he learned NFL concepts there & operated out of a spread offense. I'm expecting the two to pair up very well & if successful, better distribution of the football. Stevenson's target share was 17.3%, which according to playerprofiler.com was 4th in the league, I mean, say guh-bye! So NOT happening. While Stevenson may have become the focal point of the offense, I seriously question whether that was by design.I would guess it will be closer to a 60/40 split between the touches RS and EE get, but with fewer rushing attempts than usual. I don't see them being able to stay in games by running a lot, so I expect more passing attempts (but not as many passes to the RBs . . . they may need to stay in and block...)
I like the player but have been around long enough to know NE backfield is typically a headache. I don’t like O’Briens history of limited usage of RBs in the passing game as well. He is an avoid for me at ADP and it would probably take him falling to round five for me to happily pull the trigger (so I will not have him).Are we avoiding? If targeting which round ?
I think it’d be a mistake to think of the NE RB situation in fantasy as being similar to the Tom Brady days. Those days are over. This is still going to be a bottom of the league passing attack that makes its bread running the ball. Defense and winning the time of possession battle is how the Patriots are trying to win. The fantasy RB8 in 2021 and RB13 in 2022 has come from New England. Expect more of the same in 2023. By all means drop Stevenson a round if you truly believe Zeke is a threat to his numbers, but anything beyond that is overthinking it.
Targeting. I landed him in round 3 in a NFC, pick 3.11Are we avoiding? If targeting which round ?