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RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (1 Viewer)

@Hot Sauce; Given that even with a lighter workload you suspected Elliott prone to injury I found that he played through or missed time due to injury the past two seasons. You would agree that a player that no longer has it & one playing hurt isn't the same thing. Which is it, or is it something else?
Tag fail.

I don’t think he’s prone to injury. I think he averaged 2 YPC his last 3-4 games in Dallas behind the same line that Pollard dominated behind.

My only comment to injury is related to his number career touches. Yes, he’s 28, but he’s had a relatively heavy workload. Like cars, it’s not always the age, but the mileage.

Regardless, it was a passing comment and nothing that warrants extended discussion.

His ineffectiveness is far more relevant to the discussion at hand.
 
From Giardi:

Rhamondre Stevenson: It’s easy to forget how good Stevenson was a year ago when he’s being managed this summer. But given a few opportunities last night, the 3rd year pro reminded anyone who forgot. He showed terrific power down by the goal line on the opening drive, bulling his way in from a yard out. The next drive. more tough yards on first down from out of the shadows of his own goalpost, then that nifty 23-yard run that showed wiggle, burst and power. He’s got that all in his bag. I know it makes sense to give him breaks during the season so he’s fresher in December and January, but I also understand why that might be hard. Stevenson’s the best back the Pats have had since Corey Dillon in 2004. I want the ball in his hands.
 
FWIW Waldman wasn’t as pessimistic as someone suggested above.
Matt Waldman: Stevenson falls to the bottom half of my top 10 after being in the middle of that range. Elliott is just outside RB3 territory (RB38) and likely rising up my boards inside the top 36 at the position.

The changes are a significant increase for Elliott and a small decrease for Stevenson. Both are runs with a full toolbox of skills as runners, blockers, and receivers. Elliott remains one of the best pass blockers and decision-makers with the ball in his hands in the NFL.

Jason Wood’s excellent spotlight notes that the Patriots run the ball at a high rate no matter what scheme the team used during Bull Belichick’s tenure, averaging over 460 attempts over a 22-year period. I hear the new catchphrase for RB production is “opportunity is more important than talent.”

It’s likely both backs will earn at least 150-175 rushing attempts, and it's not unreasonable they each earn at least 200. Stevenson will earn at least 70 targets, likely more. Expect a split in rushing touchdowns, with Stevenson having a smaller but significant edge of 3-4 more than Elliott.

Hopefully I’m allowed to share that here. Again, didn’t see if this was exclusive site content or not.
Yeah I listened to a Podcast he did with FBG Adam Harstad (so I figure that's more than ok to share here lol) where they specifically talked about RS and Zeke, and Waldman pretty much said the opposite of what someone else posted in this thread. So either the poster had a bad source or really misconstrued something. I'm pretty sure Waldman didn't completely reverse his take over the course of 3 days. He especially hammered home the difference between possible and probable when talking about Zeke's usage; and much like I said earlier, went on to say based on RS usage last year, it should have very little impact on RS even if Zeke does get ~200 touches. RS doesn't have to give up anything from last season to allow Zeke to hit those numbers.
 
FWIW Waldman wasn’t as pessimistic as someone suggested above.
Matt Waldman: Stevenson falls to the bottom half of my top 10 after being in the middle of that range. Elliott is just outside RB3 territory (RB38) and likely rising up my boards inside the top 36 at the position.

The changes are a significant increase for Elliott and a small decrease for Stevenson. Both are runs with a full toolbox of skills as runners, blockers, and receivers. Elliott remains one of the best pass blockers and decision-makers with the ball in his hands in the NFL.

Jason Wood’s excellent spotlight notes that the Patriots run the ball at a high rate no matter what scheme the team used during Bull Belichick’s tenure, averaging over 460 attempts over a 22-year period. I hear the new catchphrase for RB production is “opportunity is more important than talent.”

It’s likely both backs will earn at least 150-175 rushing attempts, and it's not unreasonable they each earn at least 200. Stevenson will earn at least 70 targets, likely more. Expect a split in rushing touchdowns, with Stevenson having a smaller but significant edge of 3-4 more than Elliott.

Hopefully I’m allowed to share that here. Again, didn’t see if this was exclusive site content or not.
Yeah I listened to a Podcast he did with FBG Adam Harstad (so I figure that's more than ok to share here lol) where they specifically talked about RS and Zeke, and Waldman pretty much said the opposite of what someone else posted in this thread. So either the poster had a bad source or really misconstrued something. I'm pretty sure Waldman didn't completely reverse his take over the course of 3 days. He especially hammered home the difference between possible and probable when talking about Zeke's usage; and much like I said earlier, went on to say based on RS usage last year, it should have very little impact on RS even if Zeke does get ~200 touches. RS doesn't have to give up anything from last season to allow Zeke to hit those numbers.
Yep. I thought that was a bit odd since it was so incongruous.

And if you have access to the article you'll see most of the FBG staff have him between RB9-11, while the ones who have him in the 14-19 range admitted that they had him there before the EE signing.

IIRC several mentioned that they saw EE as more a sign that Strong/KHarris weren't showing enough, and as you said, EE shouldn't eat into RS share of the pie too dramatically, other than at the stripe - where I still expect RS to get some touches.
 
I got offered Stevenson straight up for Taylor. I am so torn on this right now. It's an extremely interesting value assessment problem.
 
I got offered Stevenson straight up for Taylor. I am so torn on this right now. It's an extremely interesting value assessment problem.

If you are playing for now, I say do it. If you are playing the long game in a dynasty I don't think I'd pull the trigger, but it's close because of Taylor's ankle issues.
 
I got offered Stevenson straight up for Taylor. I am so torn on this right now. It's an extremely interesting value assessment problem.
Oof.

It's just impossible to assess without a crystal ball. Is Taylor going to be 1. Starter for the Colts? 2. Traded to ______? 3. A boat anchor for your FF roster?

And that doesn't even count the variables around Stevenson this year. And RS is an UFA after 2024 at age 26, so that gets fun too.
 
Going from Harris to Zeke being there has to be seen as a positive.
Going from Harris missing almost half the season to Zeke that almost always suits up has to be seen as a negative.
Going from Harris who was hurt all the time to Zeke who averaged 2 YPC over his last 4 games last year and has looked like a shell of himself in the receiving game has to be seen only as an indictment of Strong & KHarris and therefore a neutral impact.

Speculation is fun!
 
let’s all settle on the following:

- signing Zeke isn’t a good thing for Stevenson’s 2023 production, especially as compared to Zeke not being there, but it’s not the worst thing that could have happened. Cook would have been.
- Zeke is only 28 and has still been pretty productive the last two years even though he’s noticeably slowed down a little - due to injury or otherwise. Hes not washed though. He’s capable of taking a series or two per half and maybe short yardage;
- the Pats signing Zeke surely speaks to what they think of the other RBs that showed to be no threat to Stevenson, but by signing him to decent money and with BB’s history with veterans, he’s going to be in the mix - we can’t be sure, and we all may have various degrees of anticipated splits.

Saves some back and forth and seems pretty reasonable. Obviously some can still disagree but think this is a good baseline at least.
 
I am not saying Rhamondre can't handle a bigger workload. But he hasn't exactly been used that way much until now.

He played in 19 games at Oklahoma in college. He had fewer than 10 carries in 13 of them (68%), under 15 carries in 15 of them (79%), and 15+ carries in 4 of them (21%).
He's played in 30 games in NE. He's had 10 or fewer carries in 15 of them (50%), under 15 carries in 21 of them (70%), and 15 or more carries 9 times (30%).

Now let's look at Damien Harris . . .
He played in 54 games at Alabama in college. He had 10 or fewer carries in 35 of them (65%), under 15 carries in 49 of them (91%), and 15+ carries in 5 of them (9%).
He played in 38 games in NE. He had 10 or fewer carries 15 times (39%), under 15 carries 26 times (68%), and 15 or more carries 12 times (32%).

Neither one of those two were given a huge workload in college, and that mostly carried over in their time in NE.

Now let's look at Zeke.
He played in 35 games at tOSU. He had 10 or fewer carries 9 times (26%), under 15 carries 15 times (43%), and 15 or more carries 20 times (57%).
He played in 109 games with DAL. He had 10 or fewer carries 10 times (9%), under 15 carries 28 times (26%), and 15 or more carries 81 times (74%).

His usage was similar to in college.

Why am I bringing this up? The huge majority of people want to give 70% of the touches to Stevenson, with Elliott maybe getting a series and some short yardage work. But Zeke is much more accustomed to getting the ball a ton and taking a pounding than Rhamondre is. No one will dispute that Stephenson is the better back these days, but that doesn't mean that BB and NE think Elliott will be used only in that "give RS a spell" capacity, nor does it automatically mean they want to give Stephenson the ball as much as they did in mid season last year.

I've heard interviews with OC Bill O'Brien, former OL coach Dante Scarnecchia, recently retired Devin McCourty, ace beat report Mike Reiss, and even BB. They commented that they feel NE has a two headed monster at RB, a 1A and 1B, that both guys are three down backs, and that they will split the workload to make for one of the best tandems and RB rooms in the league. Zeke can handle a lot of work, can block, can catch, picks up tough short yardage yards, and has a knack for getting in the end zone. All those folks had comments that touched on elements of those things. Beat reporter Evan Lazar even suggested that Zeke could get most of the early down carries and Stevenson would pick up the third down, passing down, long-yardage downs, and 2 minute work.

People can again say I posted too many words, that I am posting the same info all over again, and that it's clear as day that they are going to give the ball to Stevenson a ton because quite simply he is better than the other backs on the roster. Maybe everything BB and BOB have done in the past really won't matter. But NE will struggle in games that Stevenson either can't play or is banged up, so that alone could limit how much he gets the ball even if he is their best option.
 
There is a theory that the Patriots have been deploying maddening committees forever. I just wanted to challenge that narrative a little. (It was definitely true at one point, but we've moved on in my opinion)

In 2022 Rhamondre was RB8. 210/1040

In 2021 Harris was RB14 202/929

In 2020 Sony played 8 games, 79/449, I think he got traded, or maybe hurt, but they moved onto Harris who went 137/691 over 10 games. (14 touches per)

In 2019 Sony went 247/912 and James White had 95 targets, 72 catches. RB19.

In 2018 Sony went 209/931 in just 12 games. (Rookie season) (17 touches per + whatever receiving)

In 2017 Dion Lewis went 180/896 plus whatever though the air, he was RB15

In 2016 Blount went 299/1161 and was RB9

In 2015 Blount went 165/703 in just 12 games. (14 touches per)

In 2014 Vereen was the James White role and was RB20.



How far back do we need to go to dispell this alleged BB RB madness?

He's been through a ton of backs, sure, but when healthy he has ridden one of them, reliably, for the past decade. If he doesn't have a healthy back, he uses a satellite pass catcher to fake a run game via dump offs, which is the exact system Tom Brady took to TB that made Fournette a fantasy gold mine the last 2 years.

Zeke will get 8-12 touches per game and most likely the girl line work. Rhamondre will get 14-16 touches per game and dominate the passing work, which is 238-272 total touches, with plenty of work through the air which are the most valuable. Rhamondre didn't need more than 6 TDs to be top 10 last year, I doubt he will this year.

Zeke caps his upside, but he's still a solid low end RB1, high end RB2, getting drafted in the 3rd round as a high end RB2... I don't see the issue.

I'm still drafting a WR or QB over him at his ADP, but that's just how I build teams.
 
I have mostly backed off since people were getting agitated about discussing the NE backfield. However, yesterday on TV, Phil Perry (who many consider a respectable source that covers the team) was on a panel discussion that asked him to confirm that RS was going to be the clear dominant RB in the backfield and EE was essentially a depth piece that would occasionally spell Stevenson. The panel was surprised when Perry said Elliott will be Damien Harris and then some in terms of workload. He mentioned that Harris saw 11+ touches last season and Zeke would easily get more than that . . . 12, 13, 14 touches and some games even more. He also said there could be games where the workload is split evenly, or EE could see more work that Rhamondre (say in a blowout). That's his opinion, and people can consider that or not.
 
In 2022, Damien Harris was either out completely or injured in-game for half the season, rookies were not trusted and didn't play much

In 2021, Stevenson was out or in the doghouse for fumbling in 7 games and White missed almost the entire season

In 2020, Harris was on IR twice, Michel was on IR for half the season, and Burkhead was on IR

In 2019, went with the tried-and-true formula of an early down back (Michel), a 3rd down back (White), and a COP back (Burkhead). All were mostly healthy.

In 2018, Michel was banged up some and Burkhead missed half the season

In 2017, Gillislee only played about half the season, Burkhead missed a bunch of games, White also was hampered by injury

In 2016, Lewis missed more than half the season, Blount took almost all the carries with no other established back on the roster (White almost exclusively a receiving back)

In 2015, Lewis missed more than half the season, White missed time, Blount went on IR and couldn't finish out the season

In 2014, Ridley and Blount split the workload, Vereen was the receiving back

Based on all that, guys emerged out of necessity due to injuries to the other backs. NE produced multiple players over the years that ended up as ranked backs, but very few of them were predictable BEFORE THE SEASON STARTED, which is when people have fantasy drafts. Vereen, Blount, Lewis, White, Harris, and Stevenson all ended up ranked in the Top 25 at some point, but again, those were all unexpected and unpredicted results, usually after other players got hurt.
 
I expect Zeke to have a legit role but if the plan is to go 50/50 with an aging RB you just signed to a 1 year deal in mid-August this offense is in more trouble than I thought.
I would guess it will be closer to a 60/40 split between the touches RS and EE get, but with fewer rushing attempts than usual. I don't see them being able to stay in games by running a lot, so I expect more passing attempts (but not as many passes to the RBs . . . they may need to stay in and block with the OL issues). Even though it seems hard to predict who will get the ball, I still see 10% of the RB workload going to someone else (Strong or one of the player squad backs) with an injury here or there. If the total RB touches came in at 425, that would turn out to be RS 230, EE 153, other 42.
 
The panel was surprised when Perry said Elliott will be Damien Harris and then some in terms of workload
Why would anyone be surprised by something seemingly everyone is expecting?
:oldunsure:
I have not seen many people expecting Elliott to get 13-15+ touches a game. Most people have described his role as give-RS-a-breather / short yardage / some GL work = 6-8 touches a game. Maybe a couple places with a max of 10 touches a game. Perhaps I am looking in the wrong places.
 
The panel was surprised when Perry said Elliott will be Damien Harris and then some in terms of workload
Why would anyone be surprised by something seemingly everyone is expecting?
:oldunsure:
I have not seen many people expecting Elliott to get 13-15+ touches a game. Most people have described his role as give-RS-a-breather / short yardage / some GL work = 6-8 touches a game. Maybe a couple places with a max of 10 touches a game. Perhaps I am looking in the wrong places.
I didn’t quote anything about the # of touches, just that it seemed like everyone expected the Pats to bring someone in to replace Damian Harris.

Seemed obvious.
 
There is a theory that the Patriots have been deploying maddening committees forever. I just wanted to challenge that narrative a little. (It was definitely true at one point, but we've moved on in my opinion)

In 2022 Rhamondre was RB8. 210/1040

In 2021 Harris was RB14 202/929

In 2020 Sony played 8 games, 79/449, I think he got traded, or maybe hurt, but they moved onto Harris who went 137/691 over 10 games. (14 touches per)

In 2019 Sony went 247/912 and James White had 95 targets, 72 catches. RB19.

In 2018 Sony went 209/931 in just 12 games. (Rookie season) (17 touches per + whatever receiving)

In 2017 Dion Lewis went 180/896 plus whatever though the air, he was RB15

In 2016 Blount went 299/1161 and was RB9

In 2015 Blount went 165/703 in just 12 games. (14 touches per)

In 2014 Vereen was the James White role and was RB20.



How far back do we need to go to dispell this alleged BB RB madness?

He's been through a ton of backs, sure, but when healthy he has ridden one of them, reliably, for the past decade. If he doesn't have a healthy back, he uses a satellite pass catcher to fake a run game via dump offs, which is the exact system Tom Brady took to TB that made Fournette a fantasy gold mine the last 2 years.

Zeke will get 8-12 touches per game and most likely the girl line work. Rhamondre will get 14-16 touches per game and dominate the passing work, which is 238-272 total touches, with plenty of work through the air which are the most valuable. Rhamondre didn't need more than 6 TDs to be top 10 last year, I doubt he will this year.

Zeke caps his upside, but he's still a solid low end RB1, high end RB2, getting drafted in the 3rd round as a high end RB2... I don't see the issue.

I'm still drafting a WR or QB over him at his ADP, but that's just how I build teams.
What you describe is a maddening committee. The primary guy produces decent numbers, while the rest of the backs vulture a lot to keep him from being elite.
 
There is a theory that the Patriots have been deploying maddening committees forever. I just wanted to challenge that narrative a little. (It was definitely true at one point, but we've moved on in my opinion)

In 2022 Rhamondre was RB8. 210/1040

In 2021 Harris was RB14 202/929

In 2020 Sony played 8 games, 79/449, I think he got traded, or maybe hurt, but they moved onto Harris who went 137/691 over 10 games. (14 touches per)

In 2019 Sony went 247/912 and James White had 95 targets, 72 catches. RB19.

In 2018 Sony went 209/931 in just 12 games. (Rookie season) (17 touches per + whatever receiving)

In 2017 Dion Lewis went 180/896 plus whatever though the air, he was RB15

In 2016 Blount went 299/1161 and was RB9

In 2015 Blount went 165/703 in just 12 games. (14 touches per)

In 2014 Vereen was the James White role and was RB20.



How far back do we need to go to dispell this alleged BB RB madness?

He's been through a ton of backs, sure, but when healthy he has ridden one of them, reliably, for the past decade. If he doesn't have a healthy back, he uses a satellite pass catcher to fake a run game via dump offs, which is the exact system Tom Brady took to TB that made Fournette a fantasy gold mine the last 2 years.

Zeke will get 8-12 touches per game and most likely the girl line work. Rhamondre will get 14-16 touches per game and dominate the passing work, which is 238-272 total touches, with plenty of work through the air which are the most valuable. Rhamondre didn't need more than 6 TDs to be top 10 last year, I doubt he will this year.

Zeke caps his upside, but he's still a solid low end RB1, high end RB2, getting drafted in the 3rd round as a high end RB2... I don't see the issue.

I'm still drafting a WR or QB over him at his ADP, but that's just how I build teams.
What you describe is a maddening committee. The primary guy produces decent numbers, while the rest of the backs vulture a lot to keep him from being elite.
Not everyone can be elite.
 
RS to good to be in anything close to a split. I'm guessing 70/30. Zeke can still contribute in a supporting role for sure though. Which is all the team is looking for when you sign a guy in mid-August.

We will all soon see though.
 
RS to good to be in anything close to a split. I'm guessing 70/30. Zeke can still contribute in a supporting role for sure though. Which is all the team is looking for when you sign a guy in mid-August.

We will all soon see though.
You're expecting Rhamondre to go over 300 carries+targets?
 
RS to good to be in anything close to a split. I'm guessing 70/30. Zeke can still contribute in a supporting role for sure though. Which is all the team is looking for when you sign a guy in mid-August.

We will all soon see though.
You're expecting Rhamondre to go over 300 carries+targets?
He had 279 last year - so....yeah.
298 actually (targets not receptions).

Maybe, sure but, as with last season it seems very dependent on the health of his running mate.

Rhamondre's numbers didn't hold when Harris was available.

The real problem is how do we comp an O'Brien offense to whatever was going on last season?
 
RS to good to be in anything close to a split. I'm guessing 70/30. Zeke can still contribute in a supporting role for sure though. Which is all the team is looking for when you sign a guy in mid-August.

We will all soon see though.
You're expecting Rhamondre to go over 300 carries+targets?
He had 279 last year - so....yeah.
298 actually (targets not receptions).

Maybe, sure but, as with last season it seems very dependent on the health of his running mate.

Rhamondre's numbers didn't hold when Harris was available.

The real problem is how do we comp an O'Brien offense to whatever was going on last season?
It was only Rhamondre's second year for one, and was number 2 on the depth chart coming in. I took some time for him to seize the role - coming into this year he is the unquestioned lead guy. Zeke is old/slow/signed 2 weeks ago. Harris isn't special, but Zeke isn't even Harris at this point in his career. He will spell Rhamondre which is great, and may have a few goal line carries here and there. But, if the Pats have 15 rushing TD's my bet is Rhamondre has 10 of those.

To the O'brien offense - that's a great question and I have no idea, but it can only go up from last year, that was atrocious.
 
RS to good to be in anything close to a split. I'm guessing 70/30. Zeke can still contribute in a supporting role for sure though. Which is all the team is looking for when you sign a guy in mid-August.

We will all soon see though.
You're expecting Rhamondre to go over 300 carries+targets?
He had 279 last year - so....yeah.
298 actually (targets not receptions).

Maybe, sure but, as with last season it seems very dependent on the health of his running mate.

Rhamondre's numbers didn't hold when Harris was available.

The real problem is how do we comp an O'Brien offense to whatever was going on last season?
It was only Rhamondre's second year for one, and was number 2 on the depth chart coming in. I took some time for him to seize the role - coming into this year he is the unquestioned lead guy. Zeke is old/slow/signed 2 weeks ago. Harris isn't special, but Zeke isn't even Harris at this point in his career. He will spell Rhamondre which is great, and may have a few goal line carries here and there. But, if the Pats have 15 rushing TD's my bet is Rhamondre has 10 of those.

To the O'brien offense - that's a great question and I have no idea, but it can only go up from last year, that was atrocious.
Did he seize the role or was he the next man up when Harris got hurt?

I am very high on Rhamondre and do believe he can hit 300 opportunities, but a 70% share of RB opportunities is a rare occurrence, maybe 5-6 guys per year hit that mark (Jacobs was at a whopping 84% last season).

The good news is as much as people like to talk about Zeke's pass protection, and I guess he is legitimately good at it, he has been substandard out of the backfield for at least three years now. That fact probably has a lot to do with Pollard doing well in that role but that's also what Rhamondre excels at so even if the Pats only call 90-110 attempts to RBs, I fully expect Rhamondre to see the lion's share of them.

Who knows about TDs but don't be surprised if Zeke sees a veteran bump around the goal line.
 
RS to good to be in anything close to a split. I'm guessing 70/30. Zeke can still contribute in a supporting role for sure though. Which is all the team is looking for when you sign a guy in mid-August.

We will all soon see though.
You're expecting Rhamondre to go over 300 carries+targets?
He had 279 last year - so....yeah.
298 actually (targets not receptions).

Maybe, sure but, as with last season it seems very dependent on the health of his running mate.

Rhamondre's numbers didn't hold when Harris was available.

The real problem is how do we comp an O'Brien offense to whatever was going on last season?
It was only Rhamondre's second year for one, and was number 2 on the depth chart coming in. I took some time for him to seize the role - coming into this year he is the unquestioned lead guy. Zeke is old/slow/signed 2 weeks ago. Harris isn't special, but Zeke isn't even Harris at this point in his career. He will spell Rhamondre which is great, and may have a few goal line carries here and there. But, if the Pats have 15 rushing TD's my bet is Rhamondre has 10 of those.

To the O'brien offense - that's a great question and I have no idea, but it can only go up from last year, that was atrocious.
Did he seize the role or was he the next man up when Harris got hurt?

I am very high on Rhamondre and do believe he can hit 300 opportunities, but a 70% share of RB opportunities is a rare occurrence, maybe 5-6 guys per year hit that mark (Jacobs was at a whopping 84% last season).

The good news is as much as people like to talk about Zeke's pass protection, and I guess he is legitimately good at it, he has been substandard out of the backfield for at least three years now. That fact probably has a lot to do with Pollard doing well in that role but that's also what Rhamondre excels at so even if the Pats only call 90-110 attempts to RBs, I fully expect Rhamondre to see the lion's share of them.

Who knows about TDs but don't be surprised if Zeke sees a veteran bump around the goal line.
Among RBs who had more than 50% of their team's carries inside the 5, Stevenson had the lowest success rate in the league (2 TDs on 7 carries). The corpse of Zeke was 3rd in the league in goal line TDs, trailing only Jamaal Williams and Derrick Henry. He was his usual successful self inside the 5. Stevenson is also a fumble risk, where Zeke had one fumble in 530 touches the last 2 years. Point being, while Stevenson is clearly the better back now, Zeke is going to get enough of the goal line work to cap Stevenson's upside. And to frustrate the hell out of his owners. Something Belichick is famous for.
 
RS to good to be in anything close to a split. I'm guessing 70/30. Zeke can still contribute in a supporting role for sure though. Which is all the team is looking for when you sign a guy in mid-August.

We will all soon see though.
You're expecting Rhamondre to go over 300 carries+targets?
He had 279 last year - so....yeah.
298 actually (targets not receptions).

Maybe, sure but, as with last season it seems very dependent on the health of his running mate.

Rhamondre's numbers didn't hold when Harris was available.

The real problem is how do we comp an O'Brien offense to whatever was going on last season?
It was only Rhamondre's second year for one, and was number 2 on the depth chart coming in. I took some time for him to seize the role - coming into this year he is the unquestioned lead guy. Zeke is old/slow/signed 2 weeks ago. Harris isn't special, but Zeke isn't even Harris at this point in his career. He will spell Rhamondre which is great, and may have a few goal line carries here and there. But, if the Pats have 15 rushing TD's my bet is Rhamondre has 10 of those.

To the O'brien offense - that's a great question and I have no idea, but it can only go up from last year, that was atrocious.
Did he seize the role or was he the next man up when Harris got hurt?

I am very high on Rhamondre and do believe he can hit 300 opportunities, but a 70% share of RB opportunities is a rare occurrence, maybe 5-6 guys per year hit that mark (Jacobs was at a whopping 84% last season).

The good news is as much as people like to talk about Zeke's pass protection, and I guess he is legitimately good at it, he has been substandard out of the backfield for at least three years now. That fact probably has a lot to do with Pollard doing well in that role but that's also what Rhamondre excels at so even if the Pats only call 90-110 attempts to RBs, I fully expect Rhamondre to see the lion's share of them.

Who knows about TDs but don't be surprised if Zeke sees a veteran bump around the goal line.
Among RBs who had more than 50% of their team's carries inside the 5, Stevenson had the lowest success rate in the league (2 TDs on 7 carries). The corpse of Zeke was 3rd in the league in goal line TDs, trailing only Jamaal Williams and Derrick Henry. He was his usual successful self inside the 5. Stevenson is also a fumble risk, where Zeke had one fumble in 530 touches the last 2 years. Point being, while Stevenson is clearly the better back now, Zeke is going to get enough of the goal line work to cap Stevenson's upside. And to frustrate the hell out of his owners. Something Belichick is famous for.
Yeah, I think at the one yard line Zeke will probably receive 80-90% (or more) of the RB carries.

However once you push the ball back to, say 2nd & goal from the 3 or similar, those numbers will equalize and likely favor Rhamondre.

I like the Jamaal comparison from last season. When the Lions were inside the one everyone knew Jamaal was getting the ball and Dan Campbell simply dated opponents to stop him. I can see that being Zeke's role at the goal line, unfortunately the Patriots o-line isn't nearly as strong as the Lions.
 
I would guess it will be closer to a 60/40 split between the touches RS and EE get, but with fewer rushing attempts than usual. I don't see them being able to stay in games by running a lot, so I expect more passing attempts (but not as many passes to the RBs . . . they may need to stay in and block...)
Absolutely more passing, if what O'Brien ran in Houston & at Alabama is any indication, expect more empty sets, RPOs & uptempo. So play pace will likely be up as well. Mac Jones, a product of Alabama, relevant in that he learned NFL concepts there & operated out of a spread offense. I'm expecting the two to pair up very well & if successful, better distribution of the football. Stevenson's target share was 17.3%, which according to playerprofiler.com was 4th in the league, I mean, say guh-bye! So NOT happening. While Stevenson may have become the focal point of the offense, I seriously question whether that was by design.

Either way, it didn't work, not well enough. Now, no way are they getting away from balance & running the football, Stevenson as lead dog. Last year their pass/run ratio was middle of the pack, league avg. But over their last three games it spiked to 4th highest, throwing the ball over 65.5% of the time. I don't think they want to pass 2/3rds of the time but I'm very confident that it isn't about leaning on Stevenson either! Jones regressed & this season is all about getting him back on track. From a clean pocket, he ranked among the best QBs in the league. But when pressured &/or vs zone coverage, these are two areas they really need to clean up.

Mac Jones is my breakout player for the Patriots, and should he stay healthy, Hunter Henry is of interest. Zeke, there can't be very many RBs who have faced heavy fronts any more often than him. Conversely, Stevenson's light front carry rate was top-5 or thereabouts. I don't know, let's get Zeke a consistent diet of puny fronts, how bout that for once? Yeah, I can see it, Zeke gets to turn in that teensie spoon he slurps a bit of the broth up with for a honking ladle, yeah baby! Yo Stevenson owners, might want to move him while you can, 'cause what you're going to be watching is Zeke ladling into his face... Da' MEATY GRAVY! :)
 
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Are we avoiding? If targeting which round ?
I like the player but have been around long enough to know NE backfield is typically a headache. I don’t like O’Briens history of limited usage of RBs in the passing game as well. He is an avoid for me at ADP and it would probably take him falling to round five for me to happily pull the trigger (so I will not have him).
 
I feel like I always want to stay away from NE backs. I did well with Deon Lewis as a flex in a PPR years ago and I know a poster above mentioned some RB rankings that said NE's RB's can be valuable but I still feel like at any given time Bill likes to change his mind and give another back some important touches when it matters. With both Zeke and Stevenson there this year I think Harris and Strong will get all the carries :laugh:

I know I might be doing myself a disservice but I just cant do it.
 
I think it’d be a mistake to think of the NE RB situation in fantasy as being similar to the Tom Brady days. Those days are over. This is still going to be a bottom of the league passing attack that makes its bread running the ball. Defense and winning the time of possession battle is how the Patriots are trying to win. The fantasy RB8 in 2021 and RB13 in 2022 has come from New England. Expect more of the same in 2023. By all means drop Stevenson a round if you truly believe Zeke is a threat to his numbers, but anything beyond that is overthinking it.
 
I think it’d be a mistake to think of the NE RB situation in fantasy as being similar to the Tom Brady days. Those days are over. This is still going to be a bottom of the league passing attack that makes its bread running the ball. Defense and winning the time of possession battle is how the Patriots are trying to win. The fantasy RB8 in 2021 and RB13 in 2022 has come from New England. Expect more of the same in 2023. By all means drop Stevenson a round if you truly believe Zeke is a threat to his numbers, but anything beyond that is overthinking it.

Also, there is one other thing many are not accounting for which caused a ton of fantasy headaches...and it applies to both Stevenson and Zeke which is a little odd...in the past the primary Patriot RBs were either runners or receivers...it was very rare that they did both...Burkhead is one that comes to mind, but I really don't consider him one of their primary RBs...he was more of a role player...right now both Stevenson and Zeke can do both which is a huge boost for their fantasy value since it appears this is gonna be a two-man show...IMO the biggest threat to Stevenson was Strong having a role because there was a good chance it was going to eat into his receptions...so right now the x-factor is do they bring in another RB that can fill that role (or does Montgomery miraculously become productive)...with all the other holes they have I can't picture being anything of substance if they do...so, unless Zeke regains some of his form from a few years ago I think Stevenson is in as good of a fantasy spot as any Patriot RB since Dillon.
 

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