RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (1 Viewer)

[Anarchy99]

Tom Brady is not walking thru that door.

I don't really want to further muddy a Stevenson thread, but the list of teams that have struggled to get to the SB after a HOF QB retires is long. Other teams haven't even climbed the mountain in the first place, so they haven't even figured it out yet. While Brady isn't walking in that door for NE, he's not walking in the door for many other franchises either. Looking at only the AFC:

BUF - 30 years since their last SB appearance with Jim Kelly. They have a good team now but still haven't gotten to the SB.
NYJ - Haven't been to the SB since 1969 (but have a much stronger team now than in other years).
MIA - Haven't been to a SB in 40 years since Marino was around. They also have a better team now than most of those years but still haven't really made a run in awhile.
CIN - Went 33 years between SB appearances. Found something with Burrow.
BAL - Have had good regular season records but haven't advanced with Lamar so far.
PIT - They really haven't done much better than NE has post Big Ben . . . Tomlin also one of the best coaches in the league . . . also play in a tough division
CLE - The wait has been long and painful.
TEN - They've been better lately, but they were last in the SB almost 25 years ago.
IND - They were great for a while with Peyton and Luck looked capable, but since then they've been up and down. Who knows what the future holds with Richardson.
JAX - Still haven't been to the SB but the future looks brighter with Lawrence.
HOU - Like JAX, never been to a SB. They were ok for a couple of years with Watson but have mostly been a down franchise.
KCC - Their fortunes changed with Mahomes.
LVR - The Raiders have moved around but haven't been all that close to a SB over the past 20 years.
DEN - Like the Colts, they won with Peyton but have struggled since then. Wilson didn't seem to move the needle much last year.
LAC - They have a top QB now but still haven't been to a SB in 40 years.

Look at the QBs that have represented the AFC in the past 20 years SB: Mahomes, Brady, Big Ben, and Peyton went 18 times. The other two QB were Burrow and Flacco. I think it's safe to say that getting to the SB in the AFC requires a special talent at QB.

Serious question. If NE with their defense, coaching, and running game had Mahomes, would they be in the AFCCG every year like they were with Brady? I only ask because we've discussed this before, and IMO their biggest issue is not having a top, elite level QB. If they did, the rest of the roster would likely be fine.

 

[Boston]

Tom Brady is not walking thru that door.

I don't really want to further muddy a Stevenson thread, but the list of teams that have struggled to get to the SB after a HOF QB retires is long. Other teams haven't even climbed the mountain in the first place, so they haven't even figured it out yet. While Brady isn't walking in that door for NE, he's not walking in the door for many other franchises either. Looking at only the AFC:

BUF - 30 years since their last SB appearance with Jim Kelly. They have a good team now but still haven't gotten to the SB.
NYJ - Haven't been to the SB since 1969 (but have a much stronger team now than in other years).
MIA - Haven't been to a SB in 40 years since Marino was around. They also have a better team now than most of those years but still haven't really made a run in awhile.
CIN - Went 33 years between SB appearances. Found something with Burrow.
BAL - Have had good regular season records but haven't advanced with Lamar so far.
PIT - They really haven't done much better than NE has post Big Ben . . . Tomlin also one of the best coaches in the league . . . also play in a tough division
CLE - The wait has been long and painful.
TEN - They've been better lately, but they were last in the SB almost 25 years ago.
IND - They were great for a while with Peyton and Luck looked capable, but since then they've been up and down. Who knows what the future holds with Richardson.
JAX - Still haven't been to the SB but the future looks brighter with Lawrence.
HOU - Like JAX, never been to a SB. They were ok for a couple of years with Watson but have mostly been a down franchise.
KCC - Their fortunes changed with Mahomes.
LVR - The Raiders have moved around but haven't been all that close to a SB over the past 20 years.
DEN - Like the Colts, they won with Peyton but have struggled since then. Wilson didn't seem to move the needle much last year.
LAC - They have a top QB now but still haven't been to a SB in 40 years.

Look at the QBs that have represented the AFC in the past 20 years SB: Mahomes, Brady, Big Ben, and Peyton went 18 times. The other two QB were Burrow and Flacco. I think it's safe to say that getting to the SB in the AFC requires a special talent at QB.

Serious question. If NE with their defense, coaching, and running game had Mahomes, would they be in the AFCCG every year like they were with Brady? I only ask because we've discussed this before, and IMO their biggest issue is not having a top, elite level QB. If they did, the rest of the roster would likely be fine.

We do not have to go down this rabbit hole again…we disagree and disagree in a big way…you are all onboard with this roster and think they have players on par with the Bruschis, Willies, Lights, Hightowers and Whites of past teams…I do not...the D is pretty good but still needs to prove they can get it done against legit QBs and offenses…on O they are beyond flawed and I do not see how they overcome it as currently constructed…obviously an elite QB would change things but they do not have one so why build an offense the same way you did with one…no need to respond because we will waste each other’s time…the season is almost here and on field results will show which one of us is right.

 

[Anarchy99]

The season is almost here and on field results will show which one of us is right.

Not sure what the point of this was. They aren't winning the SB this year. Does that make you right (ie, BB rostered the wrong guys as you indicate so therefore their roster development gets an F) . . . or does that make me right (they aren't winning with a HOF caliber QB . . . and they likely have no chance without one). Kind of sounds like if they don't win a SB this year, then we are both right and if they somehow manage beat all odds and do win a ring then we'd both be wrong.

 

[pinkstapler]

I don't think I've yet to see any thread here where a couple people are so forwardly negative on a players prospects, responding to not only every seemingly positive post in the thread, but also tilting at windmills that I haven't seen posted anywhere in the thread. Yet despite picking nits mostly on semantics of nearly every single post, they on the same hand refuse to plant a flag predicting an actual negative outcome. Feels like everyone HERE is on board with RS around RB15 value and finishing as an RB2. It just really seems super odd, like a setup for a big "I told you so" that's backstopped with "well I never said he couldn't finish as a top back" pending results. When again.... it seems like everyone agrees.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

My only point is that Zeke is an older player.

I hate to defend Zeke, especially as a Stevenson owner, but he's only 28, and hasn't show any propensity to missing games with injury. Sure he could get injured but so could Stevenson. Same can be said for any RB in the league - so Zeke possibly getting injured isn't a narrative I would push so hard.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

My only point is that Zeke is an older player.

I hate to defend Zeke, especially as a Stevenson owner, but he's only 28, and hasn't show any propensity to missing games with injury. Sure he could get injured but so could Stevenson. Same can be said for any RB in the league - so Zeke possibly getting injured isn't a narrative I would push so hard.

I didn’t push it hard.

Or even “real good” ala salt-n-pepa

Just a passing comment. I certainly didn’t write a 10,000 word dissertation about it. lol

 

[Boston]

The season is almost here and on field results will show which one of us is right.

Not sure what the point of this was. They aren't winning the SB this year. Does that make you right (ie, BB rostered the wrong guys as you indicate so therefore their roster development gets an F) . . . or does that make me right (they aren't winning with a HOF caliber QB . . . and they likely have no chance without one). Kind of sounds like if they don't win a SB this year, then we are both right and if they somehow manage beat all odds and do win a ring then we'd both be wrong.

Absolutely not the right way to look at it and if anyone is judging them by winning a title they are delusional…if they win 9-10 games and young players are developing and look ready to go to the next level I will be very happy (with their schedule I would be good with 8 wins if there is a legit young core to be excited about) but if they win 6-7 games (or a sloppy 8 games ) and the offense is a disaster and the D still can not stop quality offenses than that is unacceptable four years post-Brady…right now I think they are closer to the second scenario and I don’t think the current philosophy of roster building is going to change that.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The season is almost here and on field results will show which one of us is right.

Not sure what the point of this was. They aren't winning the SB this year. Does that make you right (ie, BB rostered the wrong guys as you indicate so therefore their roster development gets an F) . . . or does that make me right (they aren't winning with a HOF caliber QB . . . and they likely have no chance without one). Kind of sounds like if they don't win a SB this year, then we are both right and if they somehow manage beat all odds and do win a ring then we'd both be wrong.

Absolutely not the right way to look at it and if anyone is judging them by winning a title they are delusional…if they win 9-10 games and young players are developing and look ready to go to the next level I will be very happy (with their schedule I would be good with 8 wins if there is a legit young core to be excited about) but if they win 6-7 games (or a sloppy 8 games ) and the offense is a disaster and the D still can not stop quality offenses than that is unacceptable four years post-Brady…right now I think they are closer to the second scenario and I don’t think the current philosophy of roster building is going to change that.

While the tangent is still going, it bears pointing out that an external factor to the Patriots former success and seeming fall from grace is that they historically played in an extremely weak division.

During the halcyon Brady era, the Jets, Dolphins, & Bills were not good. Having ~35% of your schedule against cupcakes gave the Patriots a huge advantage seemingly every year.

Not to detract from the greatness of some of those teams, because they were very good, but in the context of this tangent, the Dolphins, Jets, and Bills could all easily be considered too 10 NFL teams this year.

So not only do the Patriots face the internal challenges y’all have been describing, but that they coincide with those external challenges of now having ~35% of their schedule against dominant teams only makes their path forward that much more difficult.

Hopefully I’m not stating the obvious here, but I haven’t seen it mentioned.

 

[Anarchy99]

Hopefully I’m not stating the obvious here, but I haven’t seen it mentioned.

It's been discussed in the Patriots team thread. Allen, Rodgers, and Tua are likely the best QBs on other teams in the entire time TB was in NE.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Hopefully I’m not stating the obvious here, but I haven’t seen it mentioned.

It's been discussed in the Patriots team thread. Allen, Rodgers, and Tua are likely the best QBs on other teams in the entire time TB was in NE.

Also interesting that Brady got his last ring by going to a very similar situation with the Falcons & Panthers perennial doormats.

Not saying it takes away from Tom Terrific’s HOF resume, but it’s a trend worth noting.

The Saints always played TB tough though.

 

[Anarchy99]

Hopefully I’m not stating the obvious here, but I haven’t seen it mentioned.

It's been discussed in the Patriots team thread. Allen, Rodgers, and Tua are likely the best QBs on other teams in the entire time TB was in NE.

Also interesting that Brady got his last ring by going to a very similar situation with the Falcons & Panthers perennial doormats.

Not saying it takes away from Tom Terrific’s HOF resume, but it’s a trend worth noting.

The Saints always played TB tough though.

In that other thread, I mentioned that most of the Brady years the competition in the AFC was mostly Manning and Roethlisberger (Rivers was the other long-term franchise QB). As you mentioned, the AFCE opponents offered minimal resistance. The number of high-level QB's in the AFC this year is nuts (especially given that NE doesn't have one): Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Rodgers, Lawrence, Lamar, Herbert, Watson, and Wilson with Tua and Jimmy G in the mix. NE never had that many capable QBs to deal with when Brady was around.

 

[markrc99]

Greater than zero chance, but I’m skeptical. IMO there’s a greater chance of ineffectiveness or injury than dominance from Zeke.

I didn't say that Zeke would be dominant. I have no idea what would be ideal, but suggested around 125 touches, the majority of which he'd take during the latter part of the season. That premise was based upon your 70-30 split favoring Stevenson. Along with the fact that Stevenson wore down after assuming a high snap share. His main calling card is his physicality, not easy to get to the ground & brings a 3-down skillset. But the screens, pitch wides & two 'back sets were Patricia. Injuries are fickle stuff, but given Stevenson's running style & your 70-30 split, I would think he'd be the greater injury risk.

Whether Billy-O utilizes Stevenson or any of the other offensive players the way Patricia did I can't say. Don't know whether he runs 12-personnel like before but I've read he's great at constructing a coordinated game plan. Accordingly, more empty sets, which Mac Jones is comfortable running & in the run game, more man/gap, inside zone schemes. Elliott's an excellent inside runner, great vision, plays fast, disproportionately low with fantastic forward lean. I believe New England will have their best offensive performance since the departure of Tom Brady. I can see Stevenson doing well, but he isn't going to be the only effective player they have, like last year.

 

[FFCollusion]

Let's start with a caveat...

Last year I went to war with the RotoWorld forum, in support of Rhamondre. While everyone else was crying wolf about how bad the team would be, and how bad they looked in the preseason, how dumb 2 OCs was, and the alleged Bill RB committee claims... I was consistently telling everyone he was a no brainer at his ADP. We know how that worked out.

Despite the ability to ride his success all year long, I had no intention of drafting Rhamondre this year at his 2nd round ADP. Now, to be fair, that's mainly a strategy aspect, in which my goal is to repeat last years success, by drafting THIS year's round 7 RB that everyone is down on, who has the clearest path to top 12 production.

But even if I were a RB early drafter, in my initial RB rankings, I had Rhamondre as RB14. And that's noteworthy, because one of my weaknesses in fantasy, is that I tend to have a bias towards players who A: made me look good and B: helped carry my team to the playoffs. Prior to today he was RB10, going mid-late of the 2nd round in 12 team PPR leagues, but my rankings had him RB14, going in the middle of the 3rd, with all 3 elite QBs ahead of him, which really in the grand scheme made him undraftable, in real world drafts anyways.

Regardless, let's do some math and see what we come up with, because now that Rhamondre's ADP will likely tumble to the chicken littles of the world, he may potentially enter some of my potential draft scenarios, so I need to have an opinion on him.

Let's start with the generic baseline...
Last year Harris played in 11 games. Weeks 1-5, 7,8,11,12,17,18.
In THOSE games Rhamondre averaged the following stat lines:
12 carries 58 yards, .18TD + 5.1 Targets, 4.5 Catches, 34 yards, 0TD = 14.8 Points per game.

In the remaining 6 games, without Harris. Rhamondre averaged the following stat lines:
13 carries, 67 yards, .5TD + 5.1 Targets, 3.1 Catches, 8 yards, .16TD = 14.66 Points per game.

Despite the massive TD advantage without Harris around, Rhamondre's PPG averages were negligible with or without Harris on the field, actually slightly favoring the games when Harris WAS on the field.

For perspective, Rhamondre's pace(17 game season) WITH Harris are as follows:
202 Carries, 989 Yards, 3TD + 88 Targets, 77 Receptions, 573 yards, 0TD = 252 Fantasy Points.
That would Tie Aaron Jones for RB7 overall.
14.8PPG would rank as RB12.
Realistically speaking, Rhamondre was not being drafted with the 'ceiling' and 'upside' that some misinformed players might lead you to believe. He was being drafted directly in line with his production when he was sharing the field with Harris, with no added production assumed or baked in.

Let's try to measure the impact for future application if available. In those 11 games Harris was pacing:
163 carries, 714 yards, 4.6TD + 35 targets, 26 receptions, 149 yards, 0 TD.
Last season Zeke posted 231/876 + 23/17/92
So Zeke, as the committee to Pollard, was averaging about 17 'looks' a game for a total of 968 total yards.

If I told you Zeke was going to get 10 carries a game and maybe 2 targets a game, for 8-900 yards... would you be any more threatened by him than you were Harris? Why?

Arguing with myself for content...

1: Harris averaged 12 touches a game, Zeke might be closer to the 17 he got last season.
Maybe... I can't promise anything, but Zeke got worse and worse as the season went on. I'm obviously cherry picking here and drawing arbitrary lines, but... Week 14 was the last time he averaged over 4ypc, with 15/62 for 4.1. Wk15 16/58 for 3.6ypc. Wk16 16/55 3.4ypc. Wk17 19/37 1.9ypc. Wk18 8/10 1.3ypc... Wk19(WC) 13/27 2.1ypc. Wk20(DP) 10/26 2.6ypc. I don't know or care enough to go dig into defensive stats or oline issues, 8 man fronts... Well, out of curiosity, Pollard in those same exact weeks went 66/254 for only 3.8YPC.
For comparison sake, Zeke's totals were 97/275 for only 2.8YPC.

So, there seems to be some merit that the schedule was tougher or that there was an outside impact on the run game as a whole, but even so, Zeke despite more attempts, averaged a full yard less per carry than Pollard. I just don't think I can buy into the narrative that he's going to be getting 15+ carries.

2: Touchdowns! Vulture!!!
Let's say you're 1000% correct... so what? Let me reiterate, last year, Rhamondre only had 5 rushing TDs. Five... and was RB8 overall and RB12 on a per game basis. And was only being drafted as RB10. I don't understand the narrative that Rhamondre was being drafted on some massive double digit TD projections. Unless anyone here is expecting LESS than 5TDs this year, I'm not sure I see the logic in thinking that a different GL vulture changes anything.

If we want to argue that it "caps" his upside, I'll agree with that. What I disagree with, is that he was being drafted at that ceiling before today though, because the data just doesn't seem to support it.

Arguing with myself some more, trying to pick apart my own logic...

In weeks 5, 7 and 12, I could make the argument Harris wasn't really on the field. 5, 4, and 5 touches respectively... What happens if we remove those weeks and recalculate?

So the data split now becomes Weeks 1-4, 8, 11, 17, 18 (8 games) vs 5,6,7,9,12-16(9 games)
With Harris: 12.45PPG (RB23)
Without Harris: 16.8PPG (RB7)
17 game pace with Harris: 187/858/2 + 79/66/472/0 = 211 Fantasy Points (RB16)

So even in a worse case scenario we're looking at RB16 overall, RB23 in PPG.
Harris' adjusted season pace then become...
200/907/6.3 + 42/32/200/0
That's 14 'looks' a game. Attempts+Targets over 17 games.

I'll take the under for Zeke.
Basically... someone would need to explain why Rhamondre, even with Zeke, will get less work than Gibbs in DET. Because that's the lowest I can see his ADP falling.

I'm betting that's about where he falls in ADP over the next 2 weeks anyways, and you'll arguably be able to draft him at his floor, if we assume he'll be getting drafted at RB15ish now rather than RB10.

Najee, Etienne, A.Jones should/could all leapfrog him without argument from me. When we get to Mixon and Gibbs, it's a lot tougher sell. Mixon, outside of 1 single game last year, was a low end RB2, and is significantly more dependent on TDs for his value. Gibbs vs Rhamondre... I'm note sure I see the difference. Both guys are probably threatening 80+ targets, but I think Rhamondre is a far safer bet to hit the over on 200 carries.

Let's not forget James White was a top 10-15 RB for a few years in this role, and Rhamondre can do significantly more in the running game than White ever could, with equal threat through the air.

I think Rhamondre will be just fine. If you drafted him in the 2nd, I don't think it's anymore of a mistake today than it was a week ago. Zeke likely removes the possibility of a top 5 RB season, but I don't think Zeke will have any real effect on Rhamondre's floor or widest range of expected outcomes we already assumed.

His most likely outcomes are unchanged. His range of outcomes is now slightly narrower, in that his absolute ceiling is lower, and his floor may have ever so slightly dipped. If his previous range of outcomes (in health) was RB1-RB16, and 90% of scenarios lead to RB6-RB12, I think you could adjust that to his new range of outcomes (in health) is now RB6-RB18 and 90% of scenarios will lead to RB8-RB14. That's how I would measure, visualize, and present his 'window' or 'range' of outcomes, when I'm ranking him with all variables considered.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Well, I got him this AM at 3.11 in a 3RR NFFC draft & I don’t mind that price at all.

I wouldn’t have been a buyer in the 2nd but that’s 2 picks away from the 4th, which I believe should return value.

Unfortunately someone reached for Zeke in the 8th, which would have been too expensive a handcuff for me.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Let's start with a caveat...

Last year I went to war with the RotoWorld forum, in support of Rhamondre. While everyone else was crying wolf about how bad the team would be, and how bad they looked in the preseason, how dumb 2 OCs was, and the alleged Bill RB committee claims... I was consistently telling everyone he was a no brainer at his ADP. We know how that worked out.

Despite the ability to ride his success all year long, I had no intention of drafting Rhamondre this year at his 2nd round ADP. Now, to be fair, that's mainly a strategy aspect, in which my goal is to repeat last years success, by drafting THIS year's round 7 RB that everyone is down on, who has the clearest path to top 12 production.

But even if I were a RB early drafter, in my initial RB rankings, I had Rhamondre as RB14. And that's noteworthy, because one of my weaknesses in fantasy, is that I tend to have a bias towards players who A: made me look good and B: helped carry my team to the playoffs. Prior to today he was RB10, going mid-late of the 2nd round in 12 team PPR leagues, but my rankings had him RB14, going in the middle of the 3rd, with all 3 elite QBs ahead of him, which really in the grand scheme made him undraftable, in real world drafts anyways.

Regardless, let's do some math and see what we come up with, because now that Rhamondre's ADP will likely tumble to the chicken littles of the world, he may potentially enter some of my potential draft scenarios, so I need to have an opinion on him.

Let's start with the generic baseline...
Last year Harris played in 11 games. Weeks 1-5, 7,8,11,12,17,18.
In THOSE games Rhamondre averaged the following stat lines:
12 carries 58 yards, .18TD + 5.1 Targets, 4.5 Catches, 34 yards, 0TD = 14.8 Points per game.

In the remaining 6 games, without Harris. Rhamondre averaged the following stat lines:
13 carries, 67 yards, .5TD + 5.1 Targets, 3.1 Catches, 8 yards, .16TD = 14.66 Points per game.

Despite the massive TD advantage without Harris around, Rhamondre's PPG averages were negligible with or without Harris on the field, actually slightly favoring the games when Harris WAS on the field.

For perspective, Rhamondre's pace(17 game season) WITH Harris are as follows:
202 Carries, 989 Yards, 3TD + 88 Targets, 77 Receptions, 573 yards, 0TD = 252 Fantasy Points.
That would Tie Aaron Jones for RB7 overall.
14.8PPG would rank as RB12.
Realistically speaking, Rhamondre was not being drafted with the 'ceiling' and 'upside' that some misinformed players might lead you to believe. He was being drafted directly in line with his production when he was sharing the field with Harris, with no added production assumed or baked in.

Let's try to measure the impact for future application if available. In those 11 games Harris was pacing:
163 carries, 714 yards, 4.6TD + 35 targets, 26 receptions, 149 yards, 0 TD.
Last season Zeke posted 231/876 + 23/17/92
So Zeke, as the committee to Pollard, was averaging about 17 'looks' a game for a total of 968 total yards.

If I told you Zeke was going to get 10 carries a game and maybe 2 targets a game, for 8-900 yards... would you be any more threatened by him than you were Harris? Why?

Arguing with myself for content...

1: Harris averaged 12 touches a game, Zeke might be closer to the 17 he got last season.
Maybe... I can't promise anything, but Zeke got worse and worse as the season went on. I'm obviously cherry picking here and drawing arbitrary lines, but... Week 14 was the last time he averaged over 4ypc, with 15/62 for 4.1. Wk15 16/58 for 3.6ypc. Wk16 16/55 3.4ypc. Wk17 19/37 1.9ypc. Wk18 8/10 1.3ypc... Wk19(WC) 13/27 2.1ypc. Wk20(DP) 10/26 2.6ypc. I don't know or care enough to go dig into defensive stats or oline issues, 8 man fronts... Well, out of curiosity, Pollard in those same exact weeks went 66/254 for only 3.8YPC.
For comparison sake, Zeke's totals were 97/275 for only 2.8YPC.

So, there seems to be some merit that the schedule was tougher or that there was an outside impact on the run game as a whole, but even so, Zeke despite more attempts, averaged a full yard less per carry than Pollard. I just don't think I can buy into the narrative that he's going to be getting 15+ carries.

2: Touchdowns! Vulture!!!
Let's say you're 1000% correct... so what? Let me reiterate, last year, Rhamondre only had 5 rushing TDs. Five... and was RB8 overall and RB12 on a per game basis. And was only being drafted as RB10. I don't understand the narrative that Rhamondre was being drafted on some massive double digit TD projections. Unless anyone here is expecting LESS than 5TDs this year, I'm not sure I see the logic in thinking that a different GL vulture changes anything.

If we want to argue that it "caps" his upside, I'll agree with that. What I disagree with, is that he was being drafted at that ceiling before today though, because the data just doesn't seem to support it.

Arguing with myself some more, trying to pick apart my own logic...

In weeks 5, 7 and 12, I could make the argument Harris wasn't really on the field. 5, 4, and 5 touches respectively... What happens if we remove those weeks and recalculate?

So the data split now becomes Weeks 1-4, 8, 11, 17, 18 (8 games) vs 5,6,7,9,12-16(9 games)
With Harris: 12.45PPG (RB23)
Without Harris: 16.8PPG (RB7)
17 game pace with Harris: 187/858/2 + 79/66/472/0 = 211 Fantasy Points (RB16)

So even in a worse case scenario we're looking at RB16 overall, RB23 in PPG.
Harris' adjusted season pace then become...
200/907/6.3 + 42/32/200/0
That's 14 'looks' a game. Attempts+Targets over 17 games.

I'll take the under for Zeke.
Basically... someone would need to explain why Rhamondre, even with Zeke, will get less work than Gibbs in DET. Because that's the lowest I can see his ADP falling.

I'm betting that's about where he falls in ADP over the next 2 weeks anyways, and you'll arguably be able to draft him at his floor, if we assume he'll be getting drafted at RB15ish now rather than RB10.

Najee, Etienne, A.Jones should/could all leapfrog him without argument from me. When we get to Mixon and Gibbs, it's a lot tougher sell. Mixon, outside of 1 single game last year, was a low end RB2, and is significantly more dependent on TDs for his value. Gibbs vs Rhamondre... I'm note sure I see the difference. Both guys are probably threatening 80+ targets, but I think Rhamondre is a far safer bet to hit the over on 200 carries.

Let's not forget James White was a top 10-15 RB for a few years in this role, and Rhamondre can do significantly more in the running game than White ever could, with equal threat through the air.

I think Rhamondre will be just fine. If you drafted him in the 2nd, I don't think it's anymore of a mistake today than it was a week ago. Zeke likely removes the possibility of a top 5 RB season, but I don't think Zeke will have any real effect on Rhamondre's floor or widest range of expected outcomes we already assumed.

His most likely outcomes are unchanged. His range of outcomes is now slightly narrower, in that his absolute ceiling is lower, and his floor may have ever so slightly dipped. If his previous range of outcomes (in health) was RB1-RB16, and 90% of scenarios lead to RB6-RB12, I think you could adjust that to his new range of outcomes (in health) is now RB6-RB18 and 90% of scenarios will lead to RB8-RB14. That's how I would measure, visualize, and present his 'window' or 'range' of outcomes, when I'm ranking him with all variables considered.

Who are you and why are you so awesome?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Unfortunately someone reached for Zeke in the 8th, which would have been too expensive a handcuff for me.

You’re better off and that’s not a knock on Zeke, but there’s no reason for you to “have to have” Zeke at that price. If Stevenson goes down you’d likely have a better replacement anyway.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Unfortunately someone reached for Zeke in the 8th, which would have been too expensive a handcuff for me.

You’re better off and that’s not a knock on Zeke, but there’s no reason for you to “have to have” Zeke at that price. If Stevenson goes down you’d likely have a better replacement anyway.

Exactly my thoughts on it.

 

[Boston]

Unfortunately someone reached for Zeke in the 8th, which would have been too expensive a handcuff for me.

You’re better off and that’s not a knock on Zeke, but there’s no reason for you to “have to have” Zeke at that price. If Stevenson goes down you’d likely have a better replacement anyway.

Agree 100%...that is an awful draft pick and if you don't have Stevenson it is actually horrible.

 

[Anarchy99]

FWIW, former NE players and coaches have been referring to EE as a RB to split the workload and serve as the Damien Harris role in the offense. Dante Scarnecchia effectively called them 1A and 1B in the running game. Not sure why they feel that way, but they weren’t acting like Zeke was just a backup or serving in a limited role. Maybe they know something, maybe they know nothing, maybe they are way off. Just pointing out what was mentioned.

 

[Boston]

FWIW, former NE players and coaches have been referring to EE as a RB to split the workload and serve as the Damien Harris role in the offense. Dante Scarnecchia effectively called them 1A and 1B in the running game. Not sure why they feel that way, but they weren’t acting like Zeke was just a backup or serving in a limited role. Maybe they know something, maybe they know nothing, maybe they are way off. Just pointing out what was mentioned.

That doesn't surprise me (unless I am reading this wrong and you are saying Zeke is 1A and Stevenson is 1B which as a Pats fan I am praying you are not)...unless Strong becomes relevant it will just be Stevenson and Zeke and pretty much nothing else in that backfield...now I would be surprised (and quite frankly think it is a bad decision for real football) if it is a 50/50 split but I see Zeke getting a healthy amount of touches because there is no other option and you need Stevenson to last 17 games...as I have stated before it is Strong that is the biggest threat to Stevenson's fantasy value right now...Zeke will get his share but if Strong becomes legit that gets a third RB involved and one that would factor strongly into the passing game...that is the scenario Stevenson Owners do not want to see.

 

[Anarchy99]

Stevenson would be 1A and Elliott would be 1B, but from halfway through Stevenson's first season, RS and DH split the workload almost evenly when both were healthy. What made things distorted in Stevenson's favor last year was Harris was often injured.

BB may not even know what he plans to do yet until he sees how Elliott looks and how effective he will be. In prior years, he would often alternates series between RB1 and RB1A, and had a specialist 3rd down / receiving back in passing situations (Vereen, White, Faulk). He also would have a 4th back that was a Swiss army knife that would get his own series once a half and might come in to give the other main backs a breather (or maybe in 2 minute situations) . . . someone like Burkhead.

I could see Strong taking on a Burkhead role, getting some touches so not to overwork RS or EE. Third downs could be interesting this year, and they might decide the back based on distance. 3rd and short could be Zeke (either running or receiving). Third and intermediate could be Stevenson (running or receiving). Third and long could be Strong (probably receiving) or an empty backfield altogether. As of now, we really don't have much idea what they will do on third downs.

In the Patriots thread, we've often discussed their play calling needed to be more unpredictable, as defenses could figure out if a play was a run or a pass based on who the RB was. Rotating guys and then going either run or pass would help the offense, and let's see if BOB recognizes that and schemes accordingly.

 

[markrc99]

FWIW, former NE players and coaches have been referring to EE as a RB to split the workload and serve as the Damien Harris role in the offense. Dante Scarnecchia effectively called them 1A and 1B in the running game. Not sure why they feel that way, but they weren’t acting like Zeke was just a backup or serving in a limited role. Maybe they know something, maybe they know nothing, maybe they are way off. Just pointing out what was mentioned.

Perhaps Zeke into the 2nd tier, to kick it into another gear, obliterating pursuit angles all the way to the goal? Probably not, yeah, gone. Just as likely, the ability to hold up to volume, gonzo. But that low center of gravity & wide running base, that forward lean he runs with, wow, which has everything to do with great contact balance. His vision & football IQ, his ability to set up his blocks, elite, that's all gone too?

For all the bashing Matt Patricia was subject to, it appears how he utilized Stevenson was very good. Big honkin' power 'back, set him deep & bring him downhill! Any time that ramp up phase gets him clean to the point of attack, he's breaking tackles & at the very least dragging defenders for five yards. But his running style doesn't lend itself to longevity & reportedly, he wore down. Gotta keep it in the here & now, what's most relevant. Hard to believe, I don't know whether it's true but I'v read that they were running screens 10 to 12 times a game. Watching Stevenson's highlights, there was a good number of those. Very well conceived & disguised at times.

Don't anyone ask me why, I have no idea but the coaches coming in rarely seem to keep what worked from the year before. All I can think is if you run the plays that got the other guy fired & it doesn't work (ha-ha) ... that's instant pink-slip action, right? The latest example I can think of is Kevin O'Connell in Minnesota. Everybody knows Mike Zimmer got fired, he didn't win enough I suppose. But his teams were much better defensively & in particular, at running the football. But as the 2022 season progressed, especially in their home playoff game vs NY, they couldn't establish Dalvin Cook at all.

A high share of short-zone targets, Stevenson could assume. The frequency of which, I'm leary to believe will repeat. Where Patricia failed, miserably, was in the passing game. I went to playerprofiler.com, beyond belief, Stevenson their most effective performer, yet his avg # of defenders in the box, his % of base & heavy front looks, all of it, way in the back! How can that be? Conversely, for Zeke, although his base front % was 31st, his avg # of defenders in the box & stacked front figures were both top 10!! What is going on here? Why were defenses committed to getting him stopped when he's a total washball?

Just sayin' defenses wear down too. They bring Zeke along slowly, week 8, 9 has all of maybe 50 touches while Stevenson is battering away? There he'll be, sitting on your wire. Can you imagine, it's gonna snow in Boston, for like the 1st time in 20 years. Zeke is gonna get up off the ground after a 5 yd gain, spooning the white fluffy into his face! It'll be a day that will last in infamy!

 

[Boston]

Stevenson would be 1A and Elliott would be 1B, but from halfway through Stevenson's first season, RS and DH split the workload almost evenly when both were healthy. What made things distorted in Stevenson's favor last year was Harris was often injured.

BB may not even know what he plans to do yet until he sees how Elliott looks and how effective he will be. In prior years, he would often alternates series between RB1 and RB1A, and had a specialist 3rd down / receiving back in passing situations (Vereen, White, Faulk). He also would have a 4th back that was a Swiss army knife that would get his own series once a half and might come in to give the other main backs a breather (or maybe in 2 minute situations) . . . someone like Burkhead.

I could see Strong taking on a Burkhead role, getting some touches so not to overwork RS or EE. Third downs could be interesting this year, and they might decide the back based on distance. 3rd and short could be Zeke (either running or receiving). Third and intermediate could be Stevenson (running or receiving). Third and long could be Strong (probably receiving) or an empty backfield altogether. As of now, we really don't have much idea what they will do on third downs.

In the Patriots thread, we've often discussed their play calling needed to be more unpredictable, as defenses could figure out if a play was a run or a pass based on who the RB was. Rotating guys and then going either run or pass would help the offense, and let's see if BOB recognizes that and schemes accordingly.

I don't think you can totally look at it like that because it's done in hindsight...the Pats did not know what they really had with Stevenson his rookie year and for a part of last season...he was good and intriguing but still a bit of an unknown...on the flipside the now-departed Harris looked to be very legit but as we now know he just isn't reliable which is too bad because he's a solid player...now we have a lot more confidence that Stevenson is the real deal and effective as both a runner and receiver...with Zeke you pretty much know what you have so I would really hope that Stevenson is the alpha in this backfield....what that means we will find out and as I will keep saying a lot of it will depend on what Strong is and I think we can both agree that reports on him this offseason have been almost oddly quiet but I have not heard anyone advocate for him to be a break out candidate which I would love to see because it would be a huge addition to this team.

 

[rockaction]

Boston's attitude towards this eerily echoes my arguments about Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook. I hope the Jets know what they have in Hall and use him accordingly, making Cook the back that is in the background. But I also know that won't happen. Coaches gonna coach and stick with vets.

 

[Boston]

Boston's attitude towards this eerily echoes my arguments about Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook. I hope the Jets know what they have in Hall and use him accordingly, making Cook the back that is in the background. But I also know that won't happen. Coaches gonna coach and stick with vets.

Agreed but I would say there is one big difference (actually two)...Hall is coming off of an ACL so there is always a bit of an unknown that needs to be accounted for...my guess is if Hall did not have that injury Cook would not be in a NYJ uniform right now...the second is the Jets are in more of a win-now mode because they have a quality roster but also have the Rodgers window so they cannot screw things up and need to really cover their butts.

 

[Boston]

Giardi (who I really like) making a point that I have been pounding all offseason:

Then again, considering the fact that the Pats did nothing to address the position until this week, with the signing of Ezekiel Elliott, who remains more a short-yardage specialist than pass catcher at this point in his career, maybe they thought they could either once again get by with what they have - including riding Stevenson into the ground - or have misplaced faith in Ty Montgomery, who hasn’t been productive in the league since the 2018 season and is always hurt, including right now.

Regardless of what the eventual outcome is, it seems neglectful that the Pats didn’t find the next player in this long line to assume that role, instead prioritizing other positions, particularly defense, in free agency and the draft. That security blanket is invaluable to a quarterback - ask Brady - and, in turn, to the entire offense. Jerick McKinnon was out there and signed for peanuts ($1.37 million) to remain with the Chiefs. Samaje Perine went for $7.5 million over 2 years in Denver. Both would have been terrific fits in Foxborough, but instead, the Pats decided to run it back with Montgomery, fresh off a half-game played a season ago. Risky, and a situation that bears watching as we go forward.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Football guys email link to an article asking all of their writers their thoughts on the situation.

Most have Stevenson between 8 and 14, with one or two outliers having him around 15 to 18

Most barely moved him in the rankings based on the Ezekiel Elliott signing.

One or two we’re already very low on Stevenson, just didn’t move him much either.

Most have Ezekiel Elliott in the RB 40 - RB 50 range.

For the most part, their supporting thoughts echoed my own. The consensus seem to be none of them thought it was a 1A & 1B situation.

I also noticed FBG dynasty rankings haven’t moved much, if at all on the signing.

I didn’t want to post the article here as I’m not sure if it’s a subscriber, exclusive or not. But it’s worth a read if you have access.

 

[Anarchy99]

A lot of it will depend on what Strong is and I think we can both agree that reports on him this offseason have been almost oddly quiet but I have not heard anyone advocate for him to be a break out candidate which I would love to see because it would be a huge addition to this team.

Part of the reason there hasn't been much discussion about Strong's performance in camp has been they've spent lots of time working in the red zone and in the passing game. They haven't run many rushing plays, and they have been trying to get receivers and tight ends more involved catching the ball. Based on reports out of the joint practices, BOB is having Jones run some deeper routes and has Mac pushing the ball downfield more. None of that really involves Strong, so it's hard for anyone to have much opinion on him at this stage.

BB had this to say a few weeks ago about Strong and Kevin Harris: "Those are two guys who have taken a big jump in Year 2, good off seasons and way ahead of where they were last year. Both showed flashes of good things last year, and I think the experience and confidence with them is much greater than it was last year. Obviously, the biggest challenge for all running backs is pass protection, blitz pickup, the passing game. All of those guys are more comfortable carrying the ball than some of the other things that come with the position, but they've worked hard on that. We'll see how it goes."

I read that and sense that Strong and Harris haven't mastered blitz pickup . . . which is something that Zeke is said to excel at. Given the state of the NE offensive line, that could come into play even more if the OL starters remain out or haven't practiced together very often to start the season.

As far as Giardi and the other people providing opinions on the RB options, as I mentioned earlier, we have no idea what BB and BOB think about the RB room. MIke Lombardi came out and said EE was in the fold weeks ago (ie, that he essentially agreed to come to NE from the time he visited NE) with speculation that Elliott could come in later and not have to participate in a few weeks of camp. Maybe the wo Bills like Strong in that receiving role. Maybe they like Stevenson in that receiving role. It seems like everyone wants to provide their two cents and be GM for a day to run the team and manage the roster.

 

[Anarchy99]

Football guys email link to an article asking all of their writers their thoughts on the situation.

Most have Stevenson between 8 and 14, with one or two outliers having him around 15 to 18

Most barely moved him in the rankings based on the Ezekiel Elliott signing.

One or two we’re already very low on Stevenson, just didn’t move him much either.

Most have Ezekiel Elliott in the RB 40 - RB 50 range.

For the most part, their supporting thoughts echoed my own. The consensus seem to be none of them thought it was a 1A & 1B situation.

I also noticed FBG dynasty rankings haven’t moved much, if at all on the signing.

I didn’t want to post the article here as I’m not sure if it’s a subscriber, exclusive or not. But it’s worth a read if you have access.

Personally, I'd stick with the opinions of people close to the actual NFL team way more than I would guys on a fantasy site. If I still were on staff at FBG, I'd have RS closer to RB20 and EE closer to RB30.

 

[Boston]

A lot of it will depend on what Strong is and I think we can both agree that reports on him this offseason have been almost oddly quiet but I have not heard anyone advocate for him to be a break out candidate which I would love to see because it would be a huge addition to this team.

Part of the reason there hasn't been much discussion about Strong's performance in camp has been they've spent lots of time working in the red zone and in the passing game. They haven't run many rushing plays, and they have been trying to get receivers and tight ends more involved catching the ball. Based on reports out of the joint practices, BOB is having Jones run some deeper routes and has Mac pushing the ball downfield more. None of that really involves Strong, so it's hard for anyone to have much opinion on him at this stage.

BB had this to say a few weeks ago about Strong and Kevin Harris: "Those are two guys who have taken a big jump in Year 2, good off seasons and way ahead of where they were last year. Both showed flashes of good things last year, and I think the experience and confidence with them is much greater than it was last year. Obviously, the biggest challenge for all running backs is pass protection, blitz pickup, the passing game. All of those guys are more comfortable carrying the ball than some of the other things that come with the position, but they've worked hard on that. We'll see how it goes."

I read that and sense that Strong and Harris haven't mastered blitz pickup . . . which is something that Zeke is said to excel at. Given the state of the NE offensive line, that could come into play even more if the OL starters remain out or haven't practiced together very often to start the season.

As far as Giardi and the other people providing opinions on the RB options, as I mentioned earlier, we have no idea what BB and BOB think about the RB room. MIke Lombardi came out and said EE was in the fold weeks ago (ie, that he essentially agreed to come to NE from the time he visited NE) with speculation that Elliott could come in later and not have to participate in a few weeks of camp. Maybe the wo Bills like Strong in that receiving role. Maybe they like Stevenson in that receiving role. It seems like everyone wants to provide their two cents and be GM for a day to run the team and manage the roster.

I think the media that covers the Pats is as good as there is...Curran, Perry, Bedard, Giardi, Callahan, Gurgian and company are as good as it gets so I do value what they say...Lombardi is a BB fanboy...he is fun to listen to and knows his stuff but he is a BB minion and pretty much everyone knows it.

 

[rockaction]

Yeah, it all depends on how good the beat guys are when considering whether to take their word or whether to rely on third-party stuff. The Pats seem to have good beat writers (the Jets beat writers are all over the place in terms of quality) so it makes sense to listen to them. They've also been on the beat (most of them) for quite some time now, so they know the Kraft ownership and Belichick's tenure pretty well. It's when you start moving into the Felger/Mazz territory of sports talk where things get dicey. Just like the Jets and Mehta at the NY Post. Sketchy and looking to stir up controversies that aren't even there.

 

[Boston]

Yeah, it all depends on how good the beat guys are when considering whether to take their word or whether to rely on third-party stuff. The Pats seem to have good beat writers (the Jets beat writers are all over the place in terms of quality) so it makes sense to listen to them. They've also been on the beat (most of them) for quite some time now, so they know the Kraft ownership and Belichick's tenure pretty well. It's when you start moving into the Felger/Mazz territory of sports talk where things get dicey. Just like the Jets and Mehta at the NY Post. Sketchy and looking to stir up controversies that aren't even there.

100%...Talk Radio is a totally different animal...for some of them there is an entertainment agenda where they are just trying to stir the pot because it gives them content...on the non-radio side I would say the only one locally that you can say that about is Ben Volin and I don't know anyone that looks to him when they want info and/or their opinion...for the others you may agree or disagree but they are able to back it up and you can see where they are coming from...we are very fortunate to have this group.

 

[Anarchy99]

Yeah, it all depends on how good the beat guys are when considering whether to take their word or whether to rely on third-party stuff. The Pats seem to have good beat writers (the Jets beat writers are all over the place in terms of quality) so it makes sense to listen to them. They've also been on the beat (most of them) for quite some time now, so they know the Kraft ownership and Belichick's tenure pretty well. It's when you start moving into the Felger/Mazz territory of sports talk where things get dicey. Just like the Jets and Mehta at the NY Post. Sketchy and looking to stir up controversies that aren't even there.

100%...Talk Radio is a totally different animal...for some of them there is an entertainment agenda where they are just trying to stir the pot because it gives them content...on the non-radio side I would say the only one locally that you can say that about is Ben Volin and I don't know anyone that looks to him when they want info and/or their opinion...for the others you may agree or disagree but they are able to back it up and you can see where they are coming from...we are very fortunate to have this group.

I much prefer the people that just report on what's going on without an agenda. Since many of the beat reporters have ties to radio or TV shows, they usually align with the perspective of the hosts. Felger & Mazz, BST, and Early Edition have been calling for the fall of the house of Belichick for years. Bedard hasn't had a positive thing to say about them seemingly since he started covering them. Some of the others listed also appear to have an ax to grind, and I'm not sure if that's because they aren't fans of BB and his treatment of the media or if those beat reporters don't gain the access that they want. Mike Reiss still is excellent at providing level-headed reports and updates, and I also enjoy what Evan Lazar has to discuss. He's into the X's and O's and explaining what they are doing without giving his opinion that the sky is falling or that they will go undefeated. It's just reporting of current events.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Football guys email link to an article asking all of their writers their thoughts on the situation.

Most have Stevenson between 8 and 14, with one or two outliers having him around 15 to 18

Most barely moved him in the rankings based on the Ezekiel Elliott signing.

One or two we’re already very low on Stevenson, just didn’t move him much either.

Most have Ezekiel Elliott in the RB 40 - RB 50 range.

For the most part, their supporting thoughts echoed my own. The consensus seem to be none of them thought it was a 1A & 1B situation.

I also noticed FBG dynasty rankings haven’t moved much, if at all on the signing.

I didn’t want to post the article here as I’m not sure if it’s a subscriber, exclusive or not. But it’s worth a read if you have access.

Personally, I'd stick with the opinions of people close to the actual NFL team way more than I would guys on a fantasy site. If I still were on staff at FBG, I'd have RS closer to RB20 and EE closer to RB30.

You do know it’s possible to see a moderately positive post and not immediately crap all over it, right?

I was just sharing information.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

FWIW Waldman wasn’t as pessimistic as someone suggested above.

Matt Waldman: Stevenson falls to the bottom half of my top 10 after being in the middle of that range. Elliott is just outside RB3 territory (RB38) and likely rising up my boards inside the top 36 at the position.

The changes are a significant increase for Elliott and a small decrease for Stevenson. Both are runs with a full toolbox of skills as runners, blockers, and receivers. Elliott remains one of the best pass blockers and decision-makers with the ball in his hands in the NFL.

Jason Wood’s excellent spotlight notes that the Patriots run the ball at a high rate no matter what scheme the team used during Bull Belichick’s tenure, averaging over 460 attempts over a 22-year period. I hear the new catchphrase for RB production is “opportunity is more important than talent.”

It’s likely both backs will earn at least 150-175 rushing attempts, and it's not unreasonable they each earn at least 200. Stevenson will earn at least 70 targets, likely more. Expect a split in rushing touchdowns, with Stevenson having a smaller but significant edge of 3-4 more than Elliott.

Hopefully I’m allowed to share that here. Again, didn’t see if this was exclusive site content or not.

 

[Lansdowne]

Yeah, it all depends on how good the beat guys are when considering whether to take their word or whether to rely on third-party stuff. The Pats seem to have good beat writers (the Jets beat writers are all over the place in terms of quality) so it makes sense to listen to them. They've also been on the beat (most of them) for quite some time now, so they know the Kraft ownership and Belichick's tenure pretty well. It's when you start moving into the Felger/Mazz territory of sports talk where things get dicey. Just like the Jets and Mehta at the NY Post. Sketchy and looking to stir up controversies that aren't even there.

100%...Talk Radio is a totally different animal...for some of them there is an entertainment agenda where they are just trying to stir the pot because it gives them content...on the non-radio side I would say the only one locally that you can say that about is Ben Volin and I don't know anyone that looks to him when they want info and/or their opinion...for the others you may agree or disagree but they are able to back it up and you can see where they are coming from...we are very fortunate to have this group.

I much prefer the people that just report on what's going on without an agenda. Since many of the beat reporters have ties to radio or TV shows, they usually align with the perspective of the hosts. Felger & Mazz, BST, and Early Edition have been calling for the fall of the house of Belichick for years. Bedard hasn't had a positive thing to say about them seemingly since he started covering them. Some of the others listed also appear to have an ax to grind, and I'm not sure if that's because they aren't fans of BB and his treatment of the media or if those beat reporters don't gain the access that they want. Mike Reiss still is excellent at providing level-headed reports and updates, and I also enjoy what Evan Lazar has to discuss. He's into the X's and O's and explaining what they are doing without giving his opinion that the sky is falling or that they will go undefeated. It's just reporting of current events.

Mike Reiss I respect the most, also like Tom Curran, Evan Lazar, and Taylor Kyles.

 

[Anarchy99]

It’s likely both backs will earn at least 150-175 rushing attempts, and it's not unreasonable they each earn at least 200.

I find this one to be an interesting perspective. As for the other snippet just before that, NE has average 460 rushing attempts since BB got there, but that includes rushing attempts for QB and WR. Over the past 4 years, NE RB's have averaged 377 combined rushing attempts (roughly 80% of that 460 number).

In the 22 years that BB has coached NE, there have been 3 seasons when two RB had 150 carries in the same season:

2013: Ridley - 178 carries (fantasy RB36), Blount - 153 carries (fantasy RB 39)
2006: Dillon - 199 carries (fantasy RB23), Maroney - 175 carries (fantasy RB45)
2003: ASmith - 182 carries (fantasy RB41), Faulk - 178 carries (fantasy RB29)

Maybe their plan each year was to have two backs share the backfield, but on several occasions one of the backs got dinged and missed anywhere from several games to the rest of the season.

Again, we have no real idea how the RB workload will be divided this year, if the backs involved can stay healthy the entire season, or how often NE will run the ball this year (meaning, if they are always behind they may not run as frequently). But if both RS and EE do get 150 carries, that likely will come at the expense of each other.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It’s likely both backs will earn at least 150-175 rushing attempts, and it's not unreasonable they each earn at least 200.

I find this one to be an interesting perspective. As for the other snippet just before that, NE has average 460 rushing attempts since BB got there, but that includes rushing attempts for QB and WR. Over the past 4 years, NE RB's have averaged 377 combined rushing attempts (roughly 80% of that 460 number).

In the 22 years that BB has coached NE, there have been 3 seasons when two RB had 150 carries in the same season:

2013: Ridley - 178 carries (fantasy RB36), Blount - 153 carries (fantasy RB 39)
2006: Dillon - 199 carries (fantasy RB23), Maroney - 175 carries (fantasy RB45)
2003: ASmith - 182 carries (fantasy RB41), Faulk - 178 carries (fantasy RB29)

Maybe their plan each year was to have two backs share the backfield, but on several occasions one of the backs got dinged and missed anywhere from several games to the rest of the season.

Again, we have no real idea how the RB workload will be divided this year, if the backs involved can stay healthy the entire season, or how often NE will run the ball this year (meaning, if they are always behind they may not run as frequently). But if both RS and EE do get 150 carries, that likely will come at the expense of each other.

Waldman also believes RS will receive upwards of 70 targets.

Honestly I expected you to take issue with that point.

 

[Anarchy99]

Hard to tell how many targets RS will get when we don't really know who will be on the field on passing downs. Seventy may not be out of the question . . . he had 88 targets last year. Mike Clay has RS seeing 63 targets this year.

I still think there will be a different game plan / scheme with BOB vs. Patricia. IMO, people are hovering in too much on what happened last year with an inexperienced OC and RB1b was hurt for a lot of the season. At least for now, they hopefully have a 1b who is available to play.

Stevenson inherited a lot of touches last year when DHarris got hurt and was out of the lineup a lot. Maybe that will cause Stevenson's usage rate to remain very high, maybe it won't. No point in running the math all over again. I think EE will take a chunk of the workload off of Stevenson's plate.

They could also have more resources than last year as well, as they effectively moved on from Meyers but now have JJSS, Douglas, Boutte, Gesicki, and Bourne back (Patirica wouldn't play him). Those are all guys that have been involved in short, underneath routes that could take some targets away that RS had last year. Admittedly, those guys could also do very little and the offense could be stuck in mud.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Gesicki,

Separated his shoulder. I’m not sure he’s going to be relevant for a while.

 

[Anarchy99]

Gesicki,

Separated his shoulder. I’m not sure he’s going to be relevant for a while.

Said to be a "mild shoulder dislocation" and potentially could be back for Week 1. I wouldn't assume that to be the case, but it doesn't sound like a major injury. Given that teams don't have to submit an injury report for several weeks, there really is no idea to know about the severity of player injuries during training camp.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Gesicki,

Separated his shoulder. I’m not sure he’s going to be relevant for a while.

Said to be a "mild shoulder dislocation" and potentially could be back for Week 1. I wouldn't assume that to be the case, but it doesn't sound like a major injury. Given that teams don't have to submit an injury report for several weeks, there really is no idea to know about the severity of player injuries during training camp.

Oh - I guess the initial reports overstated it. Appreciate the update.

 

[Boston]

Gesicki,

Separated his shoulder. I’m not sure he’s going to be relevant for a while.

Said to be a "mild shoulder dislocation" and potentially could be back for Week 1. I wouldn't assume that to be the case, but it doesn't sound like a major injury. Given that teams don't have to submit an injury report for several weeks, there really is no idea to know about the severity of player injuries during training camp.

Oh - I guess the initial reports overstated it. Appreciate the update.

Not really...they have said week 1 from the beginning but many have felt that was optimistic...I heard an excellent point about this injury on the radio (I forget who it was)...they said this injury is very concerning because of how Gesicki plays...they said that while Hunter Henry is just your basic catcher Gesicki is very athletic/acrobatic...so if the injury happened to Henry it would not be as concerning for Henry as it is for Gesicki because he make the athletic/circus type of catches and he really needs to extend his arm and body...hopefully he is good to go because he is a major piece with how this offense is built...also, for a team that has been doing a lot of 2-TE stuff this preseason they have absolutely no depth after Henry and him so if he is not there it changes things dramatically.

 

[Scoresman]

Pierre Strong will get touches too. Bill doesn't use rookie RBs a lot which is why he didn't last year, but I expect him to get a share. Between him and Zeke, I'm now avoiding at ADP.

 

[Anarchy99]

Gesicki,

Separated his shoulder. I’m not sure he’s going to be relevant for a while.

Said to be a "mild shoulder dislocation" and potentially could be back for Week 1. I wouldn't assume that to be the case, but it doesn't sound like a major injury. Given that teams don't have to submit an injury report for several weeks, there really is no idea to know about the severity of player injuries during training camp.

Oh - I guess the initial reports overstated it. Appreciate the update.

Not really...they have said week 1 from the beginning but many have felt that was optimistic...I heard an excellent point about this injury on the radio (I forget who it was)...they said this injury is very concerning because of how Gesicki plays...they said that while Hunter Henry is just your basic catcher Gesicki is very athletic/acrobatic...so if the injury happened to Henry it would not be as concerning for Henry as it is for Gesicki because he make the athletic/circus type of catches and he really needs to extend his arm and body...hopefully he is good to go because he is a major piece with how this offense is built...also, for a team that has been doing a lot of 2-TE stuff this preseason they have absolutely no depth after Henry and him so if he is not there it changes things dramatically.

I think it was something with Curran. He mentioned that Henry usually catches the ball with his hands directly in front of him, so he would not be as impacted as much. Gesicki would be more inclined to run and leap and extend his arms and then bring the ball in, so he would have more issues if the injury was painful to raise his arms above his head. But as previously mentioned, no one is going to provide an update, so we will likely be in the dark until we get to the Week 1 practice report for an official update. I think Curran also mentioned that it could be a case of dealing with soreness and pain tolerance, meaning that he might be sore but if he could tolerate it he might be able to give things ago. Basically, no one really knows very much at this point.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Gesicki,

Separated his shoulder. I’m not sure he’s going to be relevant for a while.

Said to be a "mild shoulder dislocation" and potentially could be back for Week 1. I wouldn't assume that to be the case, but it doesn't sound like a major injury. Given that teams don't have to submit an injury report for several weeks, there really is no idea to know about the severity of player injuries during training camp.

Oh - I guess the initial reports overstated it. Appreciate the update.

Not really...they have said week 1 from the beginning but many have felt that was optimistic...I heard an excellent point about this injury on the radio (I forget who it was)...they said this injury is very concerning because of how Gesicki plays...they said that while Hunter Henry is just your basic catcher Gesicki is very athletic/acrobatic...so if the injury happened to Henry it would not be as concerning for Henry as it is for Gesicki because he make the athletic/circus type of catches and he really needs to extend his arm and body...hopefully he is good to go because he is a major piece with how this offense is built...also, for a team that has been doing a lot of 2-TE stuff this preseason they have absolutely no depth after Henry and him so if he is not there it changes things dramatically.

As someone who had surgery for a dislocated shoulder I can attest that the last thing you want is to be bumped or tackled.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this effected him all season.

Being able to extend is also an issue.

That said, it was initially reported as a separation, which is a much more significant injury.

 

[Anarchy99]

Let's be honest. It's NE and BB. Gesicki could be in an ICU somewhere with only a 10% chance of survival. If they still had the injury designation available, he'd be listed as probable.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Let's be honest. It's NE and BB. Gesicki could be in an ICU somewhere with only a 10% chance of survival. If they still had the injury designation available, he'd be listed as probable.

I’ve forever been scarred by Deion Branch - when he tore his ACL at Lambeau in 2008c but was listed as questionable every week for the rest of the season.

IIRC, the injury reporting rules changes were because of that one specifically

 

[Lansdowne]

Let's be honest. It's NE and BB. Gesicki could be in an ICU somewhere with only a 10% chance of survival. If they still had the injury designation available, he'd be listed as probable.

I’ve forever been scarred by Deion Branch - when he tore his ACL at Lambeau in 2008c but was listed as questionable every week for the rest of the season.

IIRC, the injury reporting rules changes were because of that one specifically

Don’t forget Tom Brady always being listed as probable (shoulder). And anyone who is really doubtful is listed as questionable to keep opponents guessing all week. If there’s anyone in the NFL who doesn’t care for the injury report, it’s Bill Belichick.

 

[markrc99]

@Hot Sauce; Given that even with a lighter workload you suspected Elliott prone to injury I found that he played through or missed time due to injury the past two seasons. You would agree that a player that no longer has it & one playing hurt isn't the same thing. Which is it, or is it something else?