[DYNASTY] Golden Tate (2 Viewers)

[Ministry of Pain]

If Tate signs in Detroit I would expect numbers around the area of 750-900 yds give or take, maybe 5-7TD, he'll have 2-3 games where he racks up 100/TD, many weeks of 4/45, similar to what he produced in Seattle. He is not going to be the 1st or 2nd option IMHO. I like the guy but there is a big mouth to feed ahead of him and then other RBs, TEs, other secondary type WRs, perhaps a rookie.

Is anyone going to try and sell us a ceiling of 1,000/10TD? I don't see that happening. I was hoping Tate might find his way to NE where they could really use him.

So, in your hypothetical, he moves from an offense that has averaged 413 pass attempts the past two years to one that has averaged 687, and sees no bump in his production? The Lions are going to give him $7 million / year and then throw the ball to Joseph Fauria, Kris Durham, and Joique Bell? Uhhh... no.

He's easily a 1000 yard receiver in Detroit.

CdL, can you name some teams that have consistently supported 2 WRs ripping off 1,000 yds a season with one of them surpassing 1,500? I can't think of many if any. He might easily duplicate his numbers from Seattle but I still think he will be streaky and frustrate owners many weeks.

 

[Donnybrook]

I got several low-ball offers for Doug Baldwin this off-season. Glad I didn't trade him (yet).

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Only 14 WRs have put up 1500 yards in the last 15 years or so. And some of them did it because there was no one else to throw the ball to.

Even so... Isaac Bruce, Rob Gronkowski and Hakeem Nicks had 1000+ seasons opposite a 1500 yard guy.

If you relax it to 1300 yards you pick up quite a few additional seasons.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Only 14 WRs have put up 1500 yards in the last 15 years or so. And some of them did it because there was no one else to throw the ball to.

Even so... Isaac Bruce, Rob Gronkowski and Hakeem Nicks had 1000+ seasons opposite a 1500 yard guy.

If you relax it to 1300 yards you pick up quite a few additional seasons.

Detroit has a lot of red zone options but I don't see a #3 or #4 taking up a lot of yards this year unless they add someone else, which at this point I doubt.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

If Tate signs in Detroit I would expect numbers around the area of 750-900 yds give or take, maybe 5-7TD, he'll have 2-3 games where he racks up 100/TD, many weeks of 4/45, similar to what he produced in Seattle. He is not going to be the 1st or 2nd option IMHO. I like the guy but there is a big mouth to feed ahead of him and then other RBs, TEs, other secondary type WRs, perhaps a rookie.

Is anyone going to try and sell us a ceiling of 1,000/10TD? I don't see that happening. I was hoping Tate might find his way to NE where they could really use him.

So, in your hypothetical, he moves from an offense that has averaged 413 pass attempts the past two years to one that has averaged 687, and sees no bump in his production? The Lions are going to give him $7 million / year and then throw the ball to Joseph Fauria, Kris Durham, and Joique Bell? Uhhh... no.He's easily a 1000 yard receiver in Detroit.

CdL, can you name some teams that have consistently supported 2 WRs ripping off 1,000 yds a season with one of them surpassing 1,500? I can't think of many if any. He might easily duplicate his numbers from Seattle but I still think he will be streaky and frustrate owners many weeks.

Plenty of teams have produced multiple 1K WRs -- obviously your 1500 qualifier ruled most of them out -- but the Lions are historically unique just based on the number of times they throw the ball alone the past few years. Calvin draws coverage attention like no other WR in NFL history (remember that punt gunner style nonsense at the goal line) and after Tate, there is a steaming pile of dog crap at WR/TE. It's a pretty historically unique set of circumstances that looks ripe for a good WR2 to take advantage of.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Only 14 WRs have put up 1500 yards in the last 15 years or so. And some of them did it because there was no one else to throw the ball to.

Even so... Isaac Bruce, Rob Gronkowski and Hakeem Nicks had 1000+ seasons opposite a 1500 yard guy.

If you relax it to 1300 yards you pick up quite a few additional seasons.

Detroit has a lot of red zone options but I don't see a #3 or #4 taking up a lot of yards this year unless they add someone else, which at this point I doubt.

That's where I am too. They throw a lot... there's no #3 or #4 option to actively try to get the ball to (RB catches typically replace RB rushes)... it probably makes sense to dial Calvin back to 150-175 targets instead of 175-200. Should be plenty of opportunity for Tate.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Only 14 WRs have put up 1500 yards in the last 15 years or so. And some of them did it because there was no one else to throw the ball to.

Even so... Isaac Bruce, Rob Gronkowski and Hakeem Nicks had 1000+ seasons opposite a 1500 yard guy.

If you relax it to 1300 yards you pick up quite a few additional seasons.

Detroit has a lot of red zone options but I don't see a #3 or #4 taking up a lot of yards this year unless they add someone else, which at this point I doubt.

That's where I am too. They throw a lot... there's no #3 or #4 option to actively try to get the ball to (RB catches typically replace RB rushes)... it probably makes sense to dial Calvin back to 150-175 targets instead of 175-200. Should be plenty of opportunity for Tate.

If he can maintain his efficiency per target from last year (let alone approach his absurd 2012 production in that category) he'll pass 1K yards on his 111th target, which should be pretty easily attainable on a team that throws 650 passes / year or more. Considering he faced #1 type coverage last year, I think maintaining last year's FF points / target is under selling, if anything.

 

[FUBAR]

I don't see much value in fantasy. This will likely be his career year. He is a good complement in football and has real football value, but he has little fantasy value. With Harvin out he had a real opportunity and he failed to establish himself as an elite fantasy player.

Yeah, he's not a #1 receiver. But he'd be a decent #2 if a team needed one.

<---- Stafford owner

 

[cstu]

Only 14 WRs have put up 1500 yards in the last 15 years or so. And some of them did it because there was no one else to throw the ball to.

Even so... Isaac Bruce, Rob Gronkowski and Hakeem Nicks had 1000+ seasons opposite a 1500 yard guy.

If you relax it to 1300 yards you pick up quite a few additional seasons.

Detroit has a lot of red zone options but I don't see a #3 or #4 taking up a lot of yards this year unless they add someone else, which at this point I doubt.

That's where I am too. They throw a lot... there's no #3 or #4 option to actively try to get the ball to (RB catches typically replace RB rushes)... it probably makes sense to dial Calvin back to 150-175 targets instead of 175-200. Should be plenty of opportunity for Tate.

Easy to say but if you're Stafford and your choices are Calvin and Tate who are you going to throw to?

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Only 14 WRs have put up 1500 yards in the last 15 years or so. And some of them did it because there was no one else to throw the ball to.

Even so... Isaac Bruce, Rob Gronkowski and Hakeem Nicks had 1000+ seasons opposite a 1500 yard guy.

If you relax it to 1300 yards you pick up quite a few additional seasons.

Detroit has a lot of red zone options but I don't see a #3 or #4 taking up a lot of yards this year unless they add someone else, which at this point I doubt.

That's where I am too. They throw a lot... there's no #3 or #4 option to actively try to get the ball to (RB catches typically replace RB rushes)... it probably makes sense to dial Calvin back to 150-175 targets instead of 175-200. Should be plenty of opportunity for Tate.

Easy to say but if you're Stafford and your choices are Calvin and Tate who are you going to throw to?

Well, yeah, but when the top corner and a S are bracketing Calvin and Tate is open against the #2 guy it's less clear cut, if Stafford actually bothers to go through his progressions.

 

[Eminence]

Bump Doug Baldwin.

 

[FUBAR]

Only 14 WRs have put up 1500 yards in the last 15 years or so. And some of them did it because there was no one else to throw the ball to.

Even so... Isaac Bruce, Rob Gronkowski and Hakeem Nicks had 1000+ seasons opposite a 1500 yard guy.

If you relax it to 1300 yards you pick up quite a few additional seasons.

Detroit has a lot of red zone options but I don't see a #3 or #4 taking up a lot of yards this year unless they add someone else, which at this point I doubt.

That's where I am too. They throw a lot... there's no #3 or #4 option to actively try to get the ball to (RB catches typically replace RB rushes)... it probably makes sense to dial Calvin back to 150-175 targets instead of 175-200. Should be plenty of opportunity for Tate.

Easy to say but if you're Stafford and your choices are Calvin and Tate who are you going to throw to?

Well, yeah, but when the top corner and a S are bracketing Calvin and Tate is open against the #2 guy it's less clear cut, if Stafford actually bothers to go through his progressions.

So far, that's been a problem. Stafford has been much more likely to trust the 2 inches of space he might have to get the ball to Calvin. The Lions offense can be scary good if he learns that Tate can also catch the ball.

 

[Young 8]

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/03/12/lions-sign-golden-tate/

The Detroit Lions made noise on the second day of free agency by agreeing to a five-year, $31 million contract with free agent receiver Golden Tate.

The former second-round pick of the Seattle Seahawks amassed a career high in receptions (64) and yards (898) in 2013. He acted as Russell Wilson’s favorite target on the outside, especially with Percy Harvin and Sidney Rice sidelined for the vast majority of the season.

Tate was targeted 93 times last season and caught a team high 68.8 percent of said targets. He also averaged a ridiculous 7.9 yards after the catch. One of the most important things to look at moving forward with the Lions in 2014 is that Tate will not be facing opposing top cornerbacks and won’t see double teams with Calvin Johnson lined up next to him.

In terms of fantasy football, Tate is a stud sleeper. He goes from a team that attempted a league low 26.3 attempts per game to a team that was third in the NFL in that very same category at 39.6 attempts per game. Those additional 13.3 pass attempts per game have to go somewhere.

While Johnson saw a dramatic drop off in targets per game last year (9.9) compared to (12.4) in 2012, there is no reason to believe he will see more than 11 per outing in 2014. There is a reason why the Lions doled out $31 million to Tate — they need someone to complement Johnson in the passing game.

Based on the fact that Tate was targeted on 22 percent of Seattle’s pass attempts last season, we can expect a dramatic increase in fantasy production from him. While it is foolhardy to utilize target percentage simply because he’s not a No. 1 receiver in Detroit, you can connect the dots here.

The more important thing to look at is Tate’s catch percentage and the amount of yards he racked up after the catch last season. If teams are still going to rotate coverage over to Johnson’s side, and there is no reason to believe they won’t, Tate will have a whole lot of green field to work with in Detroit. There is no reason to believe that his 7.9 yards after the catch average from a season ago will go down. Again, looking at an increase in both receptions and targets, this indicates he’s primed to surprise in the fantasy football world.

Then you have something called level of competition. Tate had to go up against the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals a total of four times last season, both of whom ranked in the top-five of the NFL in total defense. His level of competition will be dramatically downgraded for multiple reasons in 2014. As I mentioned before, Tate will not be lining up against the top defensive backs the NFC North has to offer. Second, defenses in his new division compare in no way to what he went up against in the NFC West.

If I had to make a guess based on natural progressions from one year to the next year and the current situation Tate finds himself in, I’d have to say he’s going to be a solid WR2 option in standard leagues. We can expect something in the range of 120 targets, 75 receptions and 1,000-plus yards. Depending on how many red-zone targets Tate accumulates, he could actually find himself near the top of the WR2 rankings.

 

[Shutout]

A lot of speculation presumes they continue throwing at what a few have already said: a historically high pace. Those trends tend not to sustain for long years and linehan is now gone.

My money is that they become more traditionally balanced and do not keep up the throwing attempts. The result might take on something that resembles the texans where Calvin is AJ and has the lionshare and 100/1600/12 and Tate ends up looking like a typical Kevin Walter/insert 2nd tier guy here.

Coverage will result in some big games and some low games but overall an up and down affair where 67/750/7 looks about right.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Golden Tate anticipates "moving around a lot more" in Detroit after playing X-Iso receiver in Seattle.
Though it obviously worked for the Super Bowl champs, it was frustrating at times to watch Tate's run-after-catch skills go to waste as a perimeter-only wideout in Seattle. He should play far more slot receiver in Detroit, running higher-percentage routes. Some great stats on Tate per PFF's Pete Damilatis: Tate has dropped just five of his 149 catchable targets over the last three seasons, the lowest "drop rate" of any NFL wide receiver. Tate's 50 "missed tackles" forced the past three years are nine more than any wideout in football.

Related: Seahawks

Source: Justin Rogers on Twitter

 

[Chaz McNulty]

Tate has incredible hands and is great after the catch, but his biggest issue is getting separation. Wilson had to throw in a lot of tight pockets just to give Tate the chance to catch the ball.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Any theories about how a guy miscast as an outside receiver that can't get separation caught 66% of his passes over two years?

 

[Chaz McNulty]

Any theories about how a guy miscast as an outside receiver that can't get separation caught 66% of his passes over two years?

The eye test is one. If you take a look at all 64 of his catches last year, there were probably only around 25 that he was comfortably open on. There were probably 25 that he outfaught the CB for. For his size, he has an excellent ability to go and get the ball and to react to the pass.

There were many passes that Tate caught that I don't think Wilson should have even thrown. Wilson had to develope alot of trust in his WR's because he was running fo his life in the first 10 games of the season.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Any theories about how a guy miscast as an outside receiver that can't get separation caught 66% of his passes over two years?

The eye test is one. If you take a look at all 64 of his catches last year, there were probably only around 25 that he was comfortably open on. There were probably 25 that he outfaught the CB for. For his size, he has an excellent ability to go and get the ball and to react to the pass.There were many passes that Tate caught that I don't think Wilson should have even thrown. Wilson had to develope alot of trust in his WR's because he was running fo his life in the first 10 games of the season.

It's typically easier to get open when you're not the primary focus of opposing coverage schemes. Any secondary opposing Detroit has not getting destroyed by Calvin as priorities 1, 2, and 3. It'll be significantly different than the coverages drawn by Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse. YMMV.

 

[Ted Mullins]

A lot of speculation presumes they continue throwing at what a few have already said: a historically high pace. Those trends tend not to sustain for long years and linehan is now gone.

My money is that they become more traditionally balanced and do not keep up the throwing attempts. The result might take on something that resembles the texans where Calvin is AJ and has the lionshare and 100/1600/12 and Tate ends up looking like a typical Kevin Walter/insert 2nd tier guy here.

Coverage will result in some big games and some low games but overall an up and down affair where 67/750/7 looks about right.

This is my thinking as well. Maybe it's shaped by my perception of Caldwell as a dullard but I expect them to dial back the attempts a decent bit, and the huge volume seems to be a main part of the appeal here. This offense didn't just lean pass heavy, they were 5th in attempts in 2013, 1st in 2012, 1st in 2011, and 3rd in 2010. They have been passing the ball more than just about anyone, so IMO be careful assuming that a new regime will do the same.

That said, I really like Tate's talent, especially vs the coverage he will see with Calvin out there as well. I'd actually consider him a solid bet for 1000 yds and 8+ TDs in the offense they have ran recently as someone of his talent would likely come in and get a lot of the targets that were getting spread around, but I am not confident we keep seeing 650-700 passes every year from them.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

New Lions WR Golden Tate said the Seahawks' offer to re-sign him was "laughable."
Tate says the Seahawks weren't willing to make more than a take-it-or-leave-it offer, and that he'll make more in Detroit this season than he would have the next two years in Seattle. Tate had claimed he was open to giving the Seahawks a hometown discount, but the sides were clearly never on the same page.

Related: Seahawks

Source: Seattle Times

 

[Faust]

Golden Tate: Detroit Lions' offense will fit me betterBy Kevin Patra

Around the League writer

In our NFC North Roster Reset, Gregg Rosenthal pointed out that Golden Tate was the Detroit Lions' sole big addition this offseason. Coming off a disappointing season, Detroit expects a lot out of that one splash signing.

The wide receiver believes swapping the Seahawks' offense for the Lions' new plan will fit his skill set and allow him to develop as a receiver.

"I think this offense is going to fit better for me as a player than Seattle's did," Tate told the team's official website.

What pass-catching player wouldn't trade a run-heavy offense for one that loves to chuck it around?

Matthew Stafford has averaged 675 pass attempts the past three seasons. During new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi's seven years with the New Orleans Saints -- whose offense he plans to emulate -- Drew Brees threw fewer than 600 passes in a season just once.

Tate already has an idea of who he could imitate in that type of offense.

"I watched some tape on the Saints over the last few years and just looking at that -- I haven't talked to coach Lombardi that much -- I see myself being a Lance Moore type of player, but just more explosive and able to do a few more things," Tate said.

Moore had some very good seasons for the Saints, including a 1,041-yard season in 2012 and a 928-yard, 10-touchdown year with 79 catches in 2008. His ability to play second fiddle to Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham made him a valuable asset in Brees' offense.

The Lions, however, hope to get more out of Tate than the Saints squeezed from Moore -- the five-year, $31 million contract says as much. Tate is coming off his best season in Seattle, with 64 receptions and 898 yards receiving.

The offense Tate ran in Seattle attempted just north of 400 passes last season (420), which is more than 200 fewer attempts than the Lions will likely throw in 2014 -- if past indicators remain in place.

Tate's ability to break tackles and not drop passes makes him an ideal fit next to Calvin Johnson. Now, Lombardi must transform his only big offseason upgrade into a souped-up version of Lance Moore.

The latest edition of the "Around The League Podcast" covers the Aldon Smith arrest and analyzes the offseason movers and shakers in the NFC East and NFC South.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Only 14 WRs have put up 1500 yards in the last 15 years or so. And some of them did it because there was no one else to throw the ball to.

Even so... Isaac Bruce, Rob Gronkowski and Hakeem Nicks had 1000+ seasons opposite a 1500 yard guy.

If you relax it to 1300 yards you pick up quite a few additional seasons.

Detroit has a lot of red zone options but I don't see a #3 or #4 taking up a lot of yards this year unless they add someone else, which at this point I doubt.

That's where I am too. They throw a lot... there's no #3 or #4 option to actively try to get the ball to (RB catches typically replace RB rushes)... it probably makes sense to dial Calvin back to 150-175 targets instead of 175-200. Should be plenty of opportunity for Tate.

Easy to say but if you're Stafford and your choices are Calvin and Tate who are you going to throw to?

The one who doesn't have a #1CB with safety help covering him?

At least when he's open.

 

[Ditka Butkus]

In Detroit he may just end up living up to his name........Golden

 

[JFS171]

Not a lot of Tate discussion lately (no responses for the past 3+ months)... how did the addition of Ebron skew any thoughts on Tate? Folks still buying as a sleeper for high end WR2 production opposite Calvin?

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Only 14 WRs have put up 1500 yards in the last 15 years or so. And some of them did it because there was no one else to throw the ball to.

Even so... Isaac Bruce, Rob Gronkowski and Hakeem Nicks had 1000+ seasons opposite a 1500 yard guy.

If you relax it to 1300 yards you pick up quite a few additional seasons.

Detroit has a lot of red zone options but I don't see a #3 or #4 taking up a lot of yards this year unless they add someone else, which at this point I doubt.

That's where I am too. They throw a lot... there's no #3 or #4 option to actively try to get the ball to (RB catches typically replace RB rushes)... it probably makes sense to dial Calvin back to 150-175 targets instead of 175-200. Should be plenty of opportunity for Tate.

Easy to say but if you're Stafford and your choices are Calvin and Tate who are you going to throw to?

I'd imagine your projection of 600 targets for calvin is a bit high.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Golden Tate caught 10-of-13 targets for 154 yards and a touchdown in the Lions' Week 7 win over the Saints.

Tate was the focal point of the Lions' offense all day, and he did not disappoint. Tate was electric in the open field, and showed off high-end speed on a 73-yard catch-and-run to bring the Lions within six late in the fourth quarter. With Calvin Johnson likely out at least another week, Tate will be a solid WR2 against the Falcons in London Week 8.

Oct 19 - 4:32 PM

 

[ponchsox]

I think he's a solid WR2 even when Calvin comes back.

 

[Sabertooth]

Just purchased so

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Golden Tate caught 11-of-13 targets for 109 yards in Detroit's Week 10 win over the Dolphins.

Even with the return of Calvin Johnson, Tate managed his fifth 100-yard effort in six games. This was different than Tate's 100-yard days during Megatron's absence, however, as he did more damage on dumpoffs. Amazingly, his 13 targets were two fewer than Johnson drew. Tate isn't going to fade into obscurity now that Johnson is back, but will be more WR2/3 than the WR1/2 he's been for the past month.

Nov 9 - 5:41 PM

 

[Faust]

With Golden Tate blossoming, Cardinals can't just focus on Megatron:

http://espn.go.com/blog/arizona-cardinals/post/_/id/10666/with-tate-blossoming-cardinals-cant-just-focus-on-megatron

 

[cr8f]

My top 2 receivers this year are Tate and E. Sanders. I like the opportunities for both when I franchised Sanders but they have been excellent.

 

[Ilov80s]

My top 2 receivers this year are Tate and E. Sanders. I like the opportunities for both when I franchised Sanders but they have been excellent.

As a Lions fan and new Tate owner, all I can say is wow. He's been ridiculous. DT might be the only WR better after the catch.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

2013 (16) 25 SEA WR 99 64 898 14.0 5
2014 (9) 26 DET WR 93 66 909 13.8 3

Weird, huh? It's almost like all he needed was an opportunity.

 

[Sabertooth]

He's been money for me. Reminds me of Antonio Brown. Plus living in Michigan and being a Packers fan means I can probably get a huge offer for him in the offseason.

 

[zamboni]

Almost forgot how good of a season he had last year in a very run-heavy offense.

The only thing capping his upside is Megatron, although so far there seems to be enough for Tate after Megatron gets his.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Golden Tate caught 8-of-10 targets for 89 yards in Detroit's Week 13 win over the Bears.

Tate was always open when Matthew Stafford needed him, moving the chains and tacking on yards after the catch. Even with Calvin Johnson back in the fold, Tate has drawn at least 10 targets in three of his past four games. With 75 percent of the season in the books, Tate has already set new career highs in catches and yards, and is on pace for 107/1,515. He was one of the offseason's best free-agent signings.

Nov 27 - 4:14 PM

 

[FF Ninja]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Calvin was playing injured in weeks 4 and 5, right? If so then Tate has played 7 games with a healthy Calvin and 5 games without him or with him injured.

In the 7 games: 57 targets (8.1/gm), 41 rec, 507 yards, 0 TD

In the 5 games: 59 targets (11.8/gm), 39 rec, 599 yards, 3 TD

That's a hell of a split

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Calvin was playing injured in weeks 4 and 5, right? If so then Tate has played 7 games with a healthy Calvin and 5 games without him or with him injured.

In the 7 games: 57 targets (8.1/gm), 41 rec, 507 yards, 0 TD

In the 5 games: 59 targets (11.8/gm), 39 rec, 599 yards, 3 TD

That's a hell of a split

Split the TDs in half (since they're random and the two splits are about equal otherwise):

With Calvin -- 100.7 in 7 games (14.4/game)

Without Calvin -- 108.9 in 5 games (21.8/game)

So when Calvin's around he's a #2, and when Calvin's not he's a #1. Considering his price it's a huge win either way.

 

[FF Ninja]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Calvin was playing injured in weeks 4 and 5, right? If so then Tate has played 7 games with a healthy Calvin and 5 games without him or with him injured.

In the 7 games: 57 targets (8.1/gm), 41 rec, 507 yards, 0 TD

In the 5 games: 59 targets (11.8/gm), 39 rec, 599 yards, 3 TD

That's a hell of a split

Split the TDs in half (since they're random and the two splits are about equal otherwise):

With Calvin -- 100.7 in 7 games (14.4/game)

Without Calvin -- 108.9 in 5 games (21.8/game)

So when Calvin's around he's a #2, and when Calvin's not he's a #1. Considering his price it's a huge win either way.

Really? I mean, I agree that TDs are mostly random but I don't think it is an accident that he has less with Calvin than without. But what I really find curious is how the extra 45% more targets still qualifies as "about equal" to you.

Either way, I agree, he was a WR3 price so it's still a win. Doesn't make that split any less depressing. I was thinking with Calvin drawing coverage that Tate would do really well, maybe use is YAC ability to squirt free for some TDs, but what I failed to foresee was Stafford's inability to go through his progressions and/or insistence on forcing the ball to Calvin. He's completing 54% of his passes to Calvin and 70% to Tate (well, 72% when Calvin is drawing the other team's CB1 and 66% when Tate is drawing CB1).

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

If you look the targets and catch rate do exactly what you'd think they'd do with/without Calvin. When he's gone, Tate's stretched into an outside role and the catch rate declines. But as a #2 with Calvin opposite, he's murder.

And I do think the TDs are close to 100% random after you account for catches and yards (which are roughly even in this case).

 

[FF Ninja]

If you look the targets and catch rate do exactly what you'd think they'd do with/without Calvin. When he's gone, Tate's stretched into an outside role and the catch rate declines. But as a #2 with Calvin opposite, he's murder.

And I do think the TDs are close to 100% random after you account for catches and yards (which are roughly even in this case).

Yeah, the totals are even, but one total is from 5 games and one is from 7 games. I guess you misunderstood that I was talking about averages rather than totals.

I did initially think the same thing as you about him being forced into an outside receiver role with Calvin out, but I think the difference in YPR is largely due to a 73 yard TD that was actually a very short pass, IIRC. I doubt he really got that many more downfield targets with Calvin out. If he did, they weren't caught and those are the ones contributing to his lower catch rate because they didn't alter his YPR in a statistically significant way.

 

[Tau837]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Calvin was playing injured in weeks 4 and 5, right? If so then Tate has played 7 games with a healthy Calvin and 5 games without him or with him injured.

In the 7 games: 57 targets (8.1/gm), 41 rec, 507 yards, 0 TD

In the 5 games: 59 targets (11.8/gm), 39 rec, 599 yards, 3 TD

That's a hell of a split

But even the 7 healthy games project to 94/1158 receiving. Sure, it projects to 0 TDs, but that seems rather flukish. In his Seattle career, he had 15 receiving TDs in 165 receptions, which is 1 TD for every 11 receptions. Given a pace of 94 regular season receptions, that projects to 8.5 TDs. Perhaps that projection should be lowered given Calvin's presence, but it seems perfectly reasonable to expect 5-6 TDs.

94/1158/5 is amazing value based on the common perception of Tate entering this season. And based on a deeper look at his previous performance, it was possible to see this coming, and, more importantly, reason to believe it will continue. For example:

IMO Tate is underrated as a NFL WR, due in large part to the low passing attempts in Seattle's offense. All stats from PFF, with minimum 25% of team's snaps played:

- #22 overall WR and #17 in the passing game in 2013

- Caught 68.8% of 93 targets in 2013, including all 8 of his catchable deep targets

- #2 in YAC per reception in 2013

- #1 in tackles broken or avoided in 2013 and over past 3 years

- Just 5 drops on 149 catchable targets over last 3 seasons, the lowest drop rate of any NFL WR

On top of that, Detroit signed him to a $31M contract. I think it's pretty obvious they will target him quite a bit more than any other WR on the team besides Calvin.

 

[FF Ninja]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Calvin was playing injured in weeks 4 and 5, right? If so then Tate has played 7 games with a healthy Calvin and 5 games without him or with him injured.

In the 7 games: 57 targets (8.1/gm), 41 rec, 507 yards, 0 TD

In the 5 games: 59 targets (11.8/gm), 39 rec, 599 yards, 3 TD

That's a hell of a split

But even the 7 healthy games project to 94/1158 receiving. Sure, it projects to 0 TDs, but that seems rather flukish. In his Seattle career, he had 15 receiving TDs in 165 receptions, which is 1 TD for every 11 receptions. Given a pace of 94 regular season receptions, that projects to 8.5 TDs. Perhaps that projection should be lowered given Calvin's presence, but it seems perfectly reasonable to expect 5-6 TDs.

94/1158/5 is amazing value based on the common perception of Tate entering this season. And based on a deeper look at his previous performance, it was possible to see this coming, and, more importantly, reason to believe it will continue. For example:

IMO Tate is underrated as a NFL WR, due in large part to the low passing attempts in Seattle's offense. All stats from PFF, with minimum 25% of team's snaps played:

- #22 overall WR and #17 in the passing game in 2013

- Caught 68.8% of 93 targets in 2013, including all 8 of his catchable deep targets

- #2 in YAC per reception in 2013

- #1 in tackles broken or avoided in 2013 and over past 3 years

- Just 5 drops on 149 catchable targets over last 3 seasons, the lowest drop rate of any NFL WR

On top of that, Detroit signed him to a $31M contract. I think it's pretty obvious they will target him quite a bit more than any other WR on the team besides Calvin.

Hey, I agree with you. I'm mainly just b****ing about Stafford here. I was all about Tate for the exact reasons you listed in your post in June. I was well aware of his catch %, YAC, and missed tackles. The dude is efficient.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Golden Tate - WR - Lions

Golden Tate secured 6-of-9 targets for 89 yards and a touchdown in the Lions' Wild Card Round loss to Dallas.

The Lions added punt returns to Tate's plate in the Wild Card Round. He made his presence felt on Detroit's opening drive, turning a Matthew Stafford pass into a 51-yard catch-and-run score to give the Lions an early 7-0 lead. Tate added a 17-yard gain early in the second quarter, converting on third-and-long. Lions OC Joe Lombardi frequently got Tate matched up on Cowboys S Barry Church, who was severely overmatched in coverage. Unfortunately, it wasn't enough for Detroit to pull the upset. 26 years old, Tate's 99-1,331-4 receiving line was easily a career best, but could prove to be a bit of a mirage for 2015. His stats were spiked by Calvin Johnson's myriad injuries. That said, Tate was an excellent offseason signing by Lions GM Martin Mayhew, whom we believe deserves NFL Executive of the Year consideration.

Jan 4 - 8:22 PM

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

FWIW, Calvin had about 10 targets per game played, and Tate was at about 8 targets per game when Calvin was healthy.

 

[zamboni]

FWIW, Calvin had about 10 targets per game played, and Tate was at about 8 targets per game when Calvin was healthy.

Fair point. While Tate has played - and probably always will play - second fiddle to Calvin as long as Megatron is healthy, the disparity in targets is often overstated outside of a few clear-cut Calvin games.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Golden Tate said he's focusing on learning the playbook a little better this offseason.

Tate seemed to know the plays just fine in his first year as a Lion, ranking sixth in the league in catches (99), seventh in yards (1,331) and third in total YAC (691). It will be nearly impossible for him to improve on those numbers with Calvin Johnson shaking off his nagging injuries and Eric Ebron expected to come on as an NFL sophomore. Even if Tate does get more comfortable in Joe Lombardi's scheme, expect a volume regression.

Source: ESPN.com
Mar 31 - 8:57 AM

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

720 of Golden Tate's 1,331 receiving yards last season came after the catch.

That was the third-highest total in the league behind only Le'Veon Bell and Matt Forte. Tate also recorded the third-lowest drop rate among receivers with at least 100 targets. All of this is evidence of Tate's massive growth as a wide receiver. Tate should have plenty of room to operate with a healthy Calvin Johnson demanding coverage. At worst, he's a WR3.

Related: Calvin Johnson

Source: detroitlions.com
Jun 15 - 1:56 PM

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Golden Tate's 16-game pace stats in the five games Calvin Johnson was limited in or missed last season were 125-1,917-10.

With Johnson battling an ankle injury and Eric Ebron not much of an early-season factor, Tate's stats were spiked as the focal point of Detroit's passing offense. In the 11 games where Megatron played at full tilt, Tate's pace stats were 87-1,065-2. Tate had five 100-yard games in 2014, and four of them occurred within the five where Johnson missed or was limited. For more stats like this, read Evan Silva's Lions Fantasy Preview at the link below.

Source: Lions Fantasy Preview
Jun 24 - 4:55 PM