Andy D's 2017 Mock Draft Thread - 4/17 One last "Oh, okay.What the heck..." mock (2 Viewers)

[Andy Dufresne]

CB is definitely a need, but Lattimore isn't graded as well as those two d-lineman. Not to mention that the drop-off in CBs by the next round isn't close to the DL drop-off. However, this is John Lynch as GM, so you never know.

That's not really true, IMO.

There's several good DTs but since the CBs play a flashier position they get more attention.

 

[steelers1080]

30.    Steelers – Tak McKinley, OLB UCLA   He seems to project perfectly as a classic Steelers 3-4 OLB. 

30 (62). Pittsburgh Steelers - Jourdan Lewis, CB    Michigan    Due to size limitations, he might only end up being a slot corner but he's one of the best man to man shadow defenders out there and he's not afraid to mix it up in the run game

I'd be ok with these picks, and both players have had meetings with the Steelers so that shows interest.  

A week ago I'd have said no way on Jourdan Lewis, but after looking into his arrest, it seems like it's not a big deal.  More info could easily come out later, but hearing his version of events and how his girlfriend has changed her story multiple times.  She says he choked her and threw pillows at her. He says that he did throw pillows but then he tried to get dressed and leave the apartment, and she grabbed him using her arms and legs and tried to stop him from leaving, then she called the cops when he did leave.  He also posted, "It's sad that somebody would want to control you so bad that they would ruin your life over it."  Sounds like an unhealthy relationship for both parties but that he didn't necessarily do anything wrong.  If she turns into Brent Grimes' wife, it could be an issue for NFL teams to consider...

 

[Spike]

Round 2 

2 (34). Patriots (from 49ers)-  TJ Watt, DE Wisc    Pats need a DE, seems like a total Patriots pick 

Curious as to what the Pats would be giving up in this trade.

 

[Ilov80s]

Curious as to what the Pats would be giving up in this trade.

It was actually the 49ers that traded up into 1st to get Mahomes. 

 

[Spike]

It was actually the 49ers that traded up into 1st to get Mahomes. 

Uh,ok.  So how do the Patriots have the 2.34 pick to select Watt?

 

[Ilov80s]

Uh,ok.  So how do the Patriots have the 2.34 pick to select Watt?

#### you are right, I think I copied that order ftom a spot hadn't updated from the Cooks trade. ####. That should be the Saints trading back and getting Watt, my bad. 

I think it still works. Saints would trade back and would take Watt IMO. 

 

[Ilov80s]

Also I did see a writer that covers the Saints who thinks that Pats will trade Butler to the Saints in exchange for the 1st round pick they gave up for Cooks 

 

[Insein]

We do know Eagles have the 14th pick right? 

 

[Ilov80s]

We do know Eagles have the 14th pick right? 

yeah just flip them with the Colts there. I had never done this before and was multitasking- obviously a little too much. 

 

[Andy Dufresne]

yeah just flip them with the Colts there. I had never done this before and was multitasking- obviously a little too much. 

It's not easy making it look easy like I do.

 

[Ilov80s]

It's not easy making it look easy like I do.

Funny thing is I thought copied and pasted yours as a point to work off from, but obviously I mixed a couple teams up a long the way. I was just doing it for fun. Had this whole week off and listened to a million draft podcasts, watched a ton of YouTube videos and thought I might as well do something with all that useless info.

 

[-OZ-]

I do think there's a pretty good chance the Titans draft Corey Davis, but with the 18. Lattimore seems the likely pick but if the first four picks fall the way @Ilov80s has it, Jonathan Allen will be very welcome in Nashville. 

 

[Cookiemonster]

True, that could be a bad pick. Maybe instead they take a corner like Wilson or King. I was looking at the loss of Hyde who I think was a guy who did everything from cover the slot, play in the box on runs, blitz, play CF and even return kicks . Peppers can do all of that plus a creative team can give him 5-10 offensive snaps. He does all of that with much more athleticism than Hyde. I was down on Peppers but I watched

a draft breakdown that really changed my mind.



The TLDW; is that people are judging Peppers based on a very peculiar role he had with Michigan as a speed edge setter. They are missing that when Peppers was asked to do other things (like man cover) he was good at it. 

Excellent point, and to anyone who is into YouTube scouting, this is a go-to guy.  He KNOWS football.  Wonderful analysis and breakdown.  Best YouTube scout I've ever watched, and if he doesn't have a job as a scout, he will soon.  One of less than a 1/2 dozen YouTube channels I've subscribed to.

 

[Cookiemonster]

Sorry

 

[Andy Dufresne]

@Andy Dufresne

Curious, Awuzie 1st round? He's projected as a 3-4th or 4-5th rounder depending on the site... I like him a lot, I think he has good talent, but over guys like Humphreys seems kind of crazy. What do you know that I don't? 

Awuzie in the first getting more chatter.

 

[Hawkeye21]

Watson to the Bears in the second round?  I'm on board with that.  No way that happens but I'd be very happy.  I have a feeling there will be 4 QBs taken in the first.

 

[daveR]

Watson to the Bears in the second round?  I'm on board with that.  No way that happens but I'd be very happy.  I have a feeling there will be 4 QBs taken in the first.

Reminds me of the Locker / Gabbert draft.  If four go in the first, there will be three disappointments at least.

 

[Hawkeye21]

Reminds me of the Locker / Gabbert draft.  If four go in the first, there will be three disappointments at least.

Most likely but a team is still going to take a chance hoping they get that one guy.  One of them will most likely turn into a franchise player.

 

[-OZ-]

Sounds like at least 4 of the top 6 teams want to trade down.  

Also rumor has it the Browns want to trade up from 12, walk away with Garrett and Trubisky.  Don't know if I buy the Browns moving up but I'd bet the Titans want a 2nd round pick.  

Are the rights to gordon worth anything? 

 

[matuski]

21 (53). Detroit Lions - Curtis Samuel, RB/WR   tOSU   Really tough call here as there are a pair of safeties left that I really think Detroit could use and the idea of paring Cunningham with Jarrad Davis is exciting. However, Samuel fills 3 roles for Deroit: speed to stretch defenses, RB to share reps with Ameer and return specialist. For me he's a potential 200 pound Tyreek Hill. 
 

22 (54). Miami Dolphins - Jarrad Davis, OLB   Florida   Miami, meet your new Strong side LB tacking machine

@llov80s I cant see the Lions passing on Davis if he is there at this point.  Regardless of drafting LB 1st round.

eta - someone tag 80s.. not working for me?

 

[Andy Dufresne]

@llov80s I cant see the Lions passing on Davis if he is there at this point.  Regardless of drafting LB 1st round.

eta - someone tag 80s.. not working for me?

It just seems like Detroit hates playing defense

 

[Biabreakable]

Reminds me of the Locker / Gabbert draft.  If four go in the first, there will be three disappointments at least.

This draft reminds me of 2013 except that there are not as many highly rated offensive lineman. That draft had a strong TE and RB group even though the RB were not drafted until the second round, Bell and Lacy turned out pretty good. The 2017 TE group is better, but that class had Eifert, Ertz. Kelce, Reed who have been successful players for fantasy.

I think the WR from 2013 may have been a bit better group than this year as prospects anyways. 

 

[Ilov80s]

@llov80s I cant see the Lions passing on Davis if he is there at this point.  Regardless of drafting LB 1st round.

eta - someone tag 80s.. not working for me?

Yeah, I was very tempted to make that pick. My thought process was probably wrong there. I think the Lions do really need to get a RB. Most people seem to think they need a pounder. I actually think they need another RB that can do what Ameer does because Ameer has had so many health issues. I think Curtis can take some of the load and get a 5-10 touches a game. Samuel can run the ball, catch short passes and yac damage. He also can go to the slot. He can improve the return game. Also, he could provide the major missing piece on the offense: elite speed to stretch the field. 

All that said, a Cunningham/Davis LB combo would be exciting. 

 

[CanadianNFLJunkie]

This is soooo out-dated, why still talk about this mock??

 

[Andy Dufresne]

This is soooo out-dated, why still talk about this mock??

It was just THAT ahead of its time.

The most recent one was two weeks ago. I could do a new one for you.

 

[steelers1080]

It was just THAT ahead of its time.

The most recent one was two weeks ago. I could do a new one for you.

Yes please!  Also, for any trades can you post the terms? And 4-5 trades in the 1st would be nice, since that's the average for the past couple years.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Yes please!  Also, for any trades can you post the terms? And 4-5 trades in the 1st would be nice, since that's the average for the past couple years.

Well, all right. The trades might not be too pretty though!

A reminder well in advance - IT'S JUST FOR FUN! If I really could predict the future I wouldn't waste the talent on mock drafting I tell ya.

 

[-OZ-]

Well, all right. The trades might not be too pretty though!

A reminder well in advance - IT'S JUST FOR FUN! If I really could predict the future I wouldn't waste the talent on mock drafting I tell ya.

One sure fire prediction - we'll all be wrong. 

2nd - at least five people won't like your picks, probably including me for the Titans. (Fwiw if they don't trade back I'll predict Lattimore and Ross in the first)

 

[Andy Dufresne]

One sure fire prediction - we'll all be wrong. 

2nd - at least five people won't like your picks, probably including me for the Titans. (Fwiw if they don't trade back I'll predict Lattimore and Ross in the first)

I can already tell you that I have the Titans trading back. 

 

[Interseptopus]

I can already tell you that I have the Titans trading back. 

I see this as a large possibility. I don't think they keep the #5 pick. 

TEN could trade back if someone was in love with Trubisky, who is likely going to the Jets at 6. They have a very very very hot pick there. AZ, HOU, BUF could all trade up there. Even CLE. 

Although, AZ and HOU apparently like Mahomes better so you may see some action around pick 8-9

 

[-OZ-]

I can already tell you that I have the Titans trading back. 

I like it already.  12 and 33 for 5 might work. 

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Well, here we go for gits and shiggles!

Round 1

1. Cleveland Browns - Myles Garrett
Still the only selection they can make.

2. San Francisco 49ers - Solomon Thomas
They want to move out, but it's too expensive to move to the #2 spot, and besides...the 49ers need some players for the 4-3.

3. Cleveland from Chicago Bears - Mitchell Trubisky
1.3 = 2200
1.12 = 1200, 2.33 = 580, 2.52 = 380 == 2160
Last year, the Eagles gave the Browns their No. 8 pick, a 2017 first-rounder and a 2018 second-rounder to move up to #2.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars - O.J. Howard
Really tough choice here between Howard/Fournette/Allen but the good news is they can't be faulted for taking any of the three. Signing Church really took Adams out of consideration.

5. Buffalo Bills (from Tennessee Titans (from Los Angeles Rams)) - Deshaun Watson
1.5 & 4th = 1.10 & 2.39
Taylor's restructured contract is pretty team-friendly, they really seem to want to add a QB, and this sticks it to the Jets.

6. New York Jets - Jamal Adams
Calvin Pryor is a bust and even though Lattimore is tempting, there are several good CBs that can be had later. Not that it matters without a QB.

7. Los Angeles Chargers - Corey Davis
Safety is the common pick but there are guys to be had later. Davis would be "the man" if Allen continues to be injured but would make an even better 1/2 punch if he doesn't. And Benjamin would make for mismatches as the #3. 

8. Carolina Panthers - Derek Barnett
Is Fournette a sexy pick here? Sure. But Stewart still isn't awful and if they're bringing back Peppers, the DE situation is dire. Easier finding runners than rushers.

9. Cincinnati Bengals - Leonard Fournette
Here, the opposite is true from Carolina. Sure they need pass rushers, but Bernard is a complimentary back, Hill is just average. And most importantly Andy Dalton is not Cam Newton.

10. Tennesse Titans from Buffalo Bills - Marshon Lattimore
They trade back and still get the guy they would have taken at #5. The Titans sure know what they're doing, I tell you!

11. Arizona Cardinals (from New Orleans Saints for a 1st and a 4th-ish) - Patrick Mahomes
Fearing that the Bears will snipe Mahomes, the Cardinals give up very little to leapfrog. Mahomes completes his "This year's Carson Wentz" story.

12. Chicago Bears (from Cleveland Browns (from Philadelphia Eagles)) - Gareon Conley
And the Bears are left to wonder "what the heck just happened?" They added Marcus Cooper - which is no addition at all. And what in the world happened to Kyle Fuller?

13. New Orleans (from Arizona Cardinals) - Taco Charlton
Edge rusher or corner? Charlton is a bigger end and brings more to the table than someone like Takkarist McKinley who is also a consideration here.

14. Philadelphia Eagles (from Minnesota Vikings) - Christian McCaffery
Fantasy footballers get their wish and Eagles fans fondly remember Brian Westbrook.

15. Indianapolis Colts - Rueben Foster 
Like Paul Simon sang "Why am I so soft in the middle when the rest of my life is so hard?" Well, the Colts luck out here and six-pack the middle of their defense more than a little.

16. Detroit Lions (from Baltimore Ravens for a 1st and a 3rd-ish) - Haason Reddick
Lions want to get faster on defense and, whoa daddy is this it. They need to jump ahead of the Redskins to make this happen. 

17. Washington Redskins - Jonathan Allen
Did they just get lucky or did they draft a guy with bad shoulders. Don't underestimate how skittish front offices get when injuries are involved.

18. Tennessee Titans - Mike Williams
The nice double-shot predicted by pundits comes true. He's not an elite athlete but he'll be the bully this offense needs.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Dalvin Cook
Where there's smoke, there's fire. And this scuttlebut is roasting. Doug Martin? More like DONE Martin, amirite!?

20. Atlanta (From Denver Broncos) - Malik Hooker
2017 1st, 2018 2nd
Falcons are looking for a 1/2 punch to team up with Keanu Neal and they really find it here. Again, injuries make for a mini-fall but Atlanta's defense would be really bolstered by this move.

21. Baltimore Ravens - Cam Robinson
Ozzie loves his 'Bama connection and losing Rick Wagner stings.

22. Miami Dolphins - Forrest Lamp
Plug and play is the word here. They've made enough moves on defense this offseason to look at the offensive side of the ball. Tight end would be in play too.

23. New York Giants - Zach Cunningham
Their linebackers are not...wait...do they even employ any NFL linebackers. Cunningham's star has faded a bit in the process but he's a rock solid player that could really help.

24. Oakland Raiders - Jarrad Davis
Same song, different verse in terms of team need but unlike Cunningham, Davis has regained a lot of his mojo and teams like the Raiders have to be ready to pounce. In fact, I might have these players backwards in terms of which team they go to.

25. Houston Texans - Davis Webb
The battle cry in Houston must be "What the hell are we supposed to do, you moron?" They're too far away for the draft's QBs at this point - and their starter is currently Tom Savage. He has a lot of warts but at least he has NFL level talent...well some anyway.

26. Seattle Seahawks - Chidobe Awuzie
Take your pick of the CBs you like best. The problem for these guys is that because there are so many good DBs this year, lots of teams are going to think they can wait. The upside is you get to go to a good team.

27. Kansas City Chiefs - John Ross
This offense goes "ZZzzzzzzzoooooooommmmmm!!!!!"

28. Dallas Cowboys - Takkarist McKinley
I don't know what qualifies as "war daddy" but this kid is a pass rusher. They lost a lot on defense this offseason and need to get after the QB to mask some of their losses in the backfield.

29. Green Bay Packers - Marlon Humphrey
They could take corners in the first three rounds and it would actually make sense. 

30. Pittsburgh Steelers - Jabrill Peppers
Sorry Steelers fans. If he's here, it's going to happen. And I don't see why not. I think teams love a guy that can do many things across roster spots and I expect him to be gone much before this.

31. Denver Broncos (from Atlanta Falcons) - Ryan Ramczyk
They gamble on the trade back and win. Their offensive line really needs something like this.

32. New Orleans Saints (from Patriots) - Kevin King
A Charlton/King combo would go a long way to easing their defensive woes, I believe

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I can't give a good reason for why John Ross isn't in the 1st.

Two knee injuries? A bit undersized?

 

[steelers1080]

I'm coming around to the Peppers pick. We spend over 60% of our time in the Nickel package and he's perfect for that.  I'd rather they trade back with the 49ers who grab Webb or some other crappy QB, but I'd take it.

Most Surprising Pick: Hooker falling to pick 20 without the Ravens taking the "Ed Reed Clone"

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I'm coming around to the Peppers pick. We spend over 60% of our time in the Nickel package and he's perfect for that.  I'd rather they trade back with the 49ers who grab Webb or some other crappy QB, but I'd take it.

Most Confusing Pick: Bears trading up for Conley. I think they'd be fine with waiting for Humphrey.

Thanks!

Bears didn't trade up, that's where they landed after trading out of the #3 spot. 

 

[Spike]

I like it already.  12 and 33 for 5 might work. 

If you're Cleveland, hell yeah.

 

[Interseptopus]

Andy well thought out. Good crack at it. These can be very fun to look at. I won't even try to do one myself... no time. But I found this latest one the most entertaining. 

 

[steelers1080]

Bears didn't trade up, that's where they landed after trading out of the #3 spot. 

Ohhhh, I saw the Eagles part and forgot that referred to the 2016 trade. Sorry.

 

[-OZ-]

If you're Cleveland, hell yeah.

It's an undersell by the chart but swapping adams/Lattimore for foster/Conley and, according to Andy's mock, ross, is something I'd be thrilled with.  And it's not much different than what Andy has the bills giving. 

 

[-OZ-]

Honestly I'm not enamored with Mike Williams at 18. Not bad and it makes sense, but I think Ross helps them more if they go wr.

 

[Interseptopus]

I like it already.  12 and 33 for 5 might work. 

If you're Cleveland, hell yeah.

Is Watson/Trubisky and the first pick of round 2 > JimmyG? 

I would imagine NE would strongly entertain #12 for JimmyG... If they let him walk after this year the most they will get for him is a 3rd round compensation pick. 

For the record, I am not a fan of JimmyG, so I would rather have Trubisky. Not Watson

 

[-OZ-]

Is Watson/Trubisky and the first pick of round 2 > JimmyG? 

I would imagine NE would strongly entertain #12 for JimmyG... If they let him walk after this year the most they will get for him is a 3rd round compensation pick. 

If this happened and the pats took McCaffrey... Tom would have a blast. 

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Maybe to fit Ross in I should have had him go to KC instead of Watt.

Can you imagine trying to keep up with a trio of Maclin/Hill/Ross?

 

[stbugs]

Maybe to fit Ross in I should have had him go to KC instead of Watt.

Can you imagine trying to keep up with a trio of Maclin/Hill/Ross?

Is Alex Smith still the QB? Then yes, I can imagine it wouldn't be as hard.

Barnett over Fournette? Ugh, can you just do a mock and put him in Carolina? Do you hate us that much? I really hate complaining, well unless it is going to save me money, then I'll work with it.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Is Alex Smith still the QB? Then yes, I can imagine it wouldn't be as hard.

Barnett over Fournette? Ugh, can you just do a mock and put him in Carolina? Do you hate us that much? I really hate complaining, well unless it is going to save me money, then I'll work with it.

Those guys aren't slower because they play with Smith.

Very little speed advantage in the NFL comes from running straight downfield and having the QB heave it.

I already had a mock where Fournette went to Carolina.

 

[Interseptopus]

I have to agree with Andy... while Fournette makes some sense in CAR, they can get some very very good runners round 2-4. Better needs round 1 for them. 

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I hate to go back and re-do anything, but I changed the Texans from Kizer to Webb and KC from Watt to Ross.

That feels better to me.

To complete the set, the Chiefs should take Curtis Samuel at RB. 

 

[Interseptopus]

I do feel Watt will fall out of round 1. I suspect the Packers may have some strong interest, but if Humphrey drops to them I don't think they can pass up on him. Awuzie would be nice too. 

Andy... I know you do this for fun but what % of correct picks would make you feel pretty good about your mock? 

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I do feel Watt will fall out of round 1. I suspect the Packers may have some strong interest, but if Humphrey drops to them I don't think they can pass up on him. Awuzie would be nice too. 

Andy... I know you do this for fun but what % of correct picks would make you feel pretty good about your mock? 

More than two!

I don't know what a real answer would be. The trades that occur out of the blue destroy mocks more than anything. If you don't even have the draft order correct, how can you get the picks right?

 

[Interseptopus]

More than two!

I don't know what a real answer would be. The trades that occur out of the blue destroy mocks more than anything. If you don't even have the draft order correct, how can you get the picks right?

I'd say anything over 25% (8) is amazing. 

(Usually)The top 2-3 picks are fairly set. After that you're right, so many trades it just messes everything up.