It's Shrine Bowl week, and that means that it's time to start my annual rookie WR evaluation. Last year's thread: 2022 Rookies - Who are the best route runners?
See the end of this thread for 2023 rookie rankings
For the past few years I've been keeping a simple Notepad file with the names of each incoming rookie WR that gets accolades (or criticism) for their route running. I have expanded my technique last year and have refined it again for 2023.
A huge shout out to @Faust in this endeavor. I basically only read about incoming rookies here in the Shark Pool, and the articles he links are 95% of my source material. I also listen to a lot of pre-draft podcasts and will note those comments where appropriate.
As I read about these players I copy and paste the writer's exact words in my file and simply tally up the score afterwards.
I am not advocating that you bump my highest-scored player to the top of your dynasty drafts, but this is another tool in the arsenal of evaluation.
2019 - Deebo Samuel, Terry McLaurin, Riley Ridley
2020 - Jerry Jeudy, Van Jefferson, KJ Hill, Justin Jefferson
2021 - Rashod Bateman, Ja'marr Chase, Dwayne Eskeridge, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Davonta Smith, Elijah Moore, Kadarius Toney, Rondale Moore, Demeric Felton
2022 - Chris Olave, Jahan Dotson, David Bell, Garrett Wilson, Skyy Moore, Jameson Williams, Christian Watson
See the end of this thread for 2023 rookie rankings
For the past few years I've been keeping a simple Notepad file with the names of each incoming rookie WR that gets accolades (or criticism) for their route running. I have expanded my technique last year and have refined it again for 2023.
Methodology
I'm not a football analyst. I do not watch college football apart from a few games per season. I do not watch film. I do not crunch numbers. I let the people who are paid to do those things, do those things...and then I read what they have to say.A huge shout out to @Faust in this endeavor. I basically only read about incoming rookies here in the Shark Pool, and the articles he links are 95% of my source material. I also listen to a lot of pre-draft podcasts and will note those comments where appropriate.
Scoring system
This isn't rocket surgery. If an article lists a player as having skills at route running, I note it and give them a +1. If they are critical of a player's route running, I give them a -1. Some writers do both and I present these as neutral.As I read about these players I copy and paste the writer's exact words in my file and simply tally up the score afterwards.
Drawbacks
Because I don't watch or even pay attention to the college football season, I don't start reading about players until after the national championship game. Prior to that I'm laser focused on NFL players and my myriad dynasty teams. I list this as a drawback for a couple reasons. (1) It ignores what pundits say weekly throughout the season, I guess this could be considered both good and bad because it doesn't taint my opinion in September. (2) In previous years if a player had a fantastic week at the Shrine Bowl or Senior Bowl, SO MANY articles are written touting their skills. I have smoothed that this year by only accepting a single article per day of practice during these events, and I'm somewhat confident that most of the players I have listed in red below were artificially inflated in my system.Caveats
This is probably the exact opposite of a scientific analysis. I'm perusing curated content on a specific site that doesn't mention every player and certainly doesn't catch every article for every player, no matter how good Faust is.I am not advocating that you bump my highest-scored player to the top of your dynasty drafts, but this is another tool in the arsenal of evaluation.
History
Players that I feel like I have identified and bumped up a bit higher than other analysts during the past few years (in order by score):2019 - Deebo Samuel, Terry McLaurin, Riley Ridley
2020 - Jerry Jeudy, Van Jefferson, KJ Hill, Justin Jefferson
2021 - Rashod Bateman, Ja'marr Chase, Dwayne Eskeridge, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Davonta Smith, Elijah Moore, Kadarius Toney, Rondale Moore, Demeric Felton
2022 - Chris Olave, Jahan Dotson, David Bell, Garrett Wilson, Skyy Moore, Jameson Williams, Christian Watson
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