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2022 Rookies - Who are the best route runners? (1 Viewer)

tangfoot

Footballguy
Over the past few seasons, past rookie success has come from their route running ability compared to their god-gifted talent.
For the past few years I've been keeping a simple Notepad file with the names of each incoming rookie WR that gets accolades (or criticism) for their route running.  I have expanded my technique this year and I'm going to share it with the Shark Pool.

Methodology

I'm not a football analyst.  I do not watch college football apart from a few games per season.  I do not watch film. I do not crunch numbers.  I let the people who are paid to do those things, do those things...and then I read what they have to say.

A huge shout out to @Faust in this endeavor.  I basically only read about incoming rookies here in the Shark Pool, and the articles he links are 95% of my source material. I also listen to a lot of pre-draft podcasts and will note those comments where appropriate.

Scoring system

This isn't rocket surgery.  If an article lists a player as having skills at route running, I note it and give them a +1.  If they are critical of a player's route running, I give them a -1.  A few writers do both and I present these as neutral.

As I read about these players I copy and paste the writer's exact words in my file and simply tally up the score afterwards. 

Drawbacks

Because I don't watch or even pay attention to the college football season, I don't start reading about players until after the national championship game.  Prior to that I'm laser focused on NFL players and my myriad dynasty teams.  I list this as a drawback for a couple reasons. (1) It ignores what pundits say weekly throughout the season, I guess this could be considered both good and bad because it doesn't taint my opinion in September.  (2) In previous years if a player had a fantastic week at the Shrine Bowl or Senior Bowl, SO MANY articles are written touting their skills.  I have smoothed that this year by only accepting a single article per day of practice during these events, and I'm fairly confident that most of the players I have listed in red below were artificially inflated in my system.

Caveats

This is probably the exact opposite of a scientific analysis.  I'm perusing curated content on a specific site which doesn't mention everyone and certainly doesn't catch every article for every player, no matter how good Faust is. 

I am not advocating that you bump my highest-scored player to the top of your dynasty drafts, but this is another tool in the arsenal of evaluation.

History

Players that I feel like I have identified and bumped up a bit higher than other analysts during the past few years (in order by score):

2019 - Deebo Samuel, Terry McLaurin, Riley Ridley

2020 - Jerry Jeudy, Van Jefferson, KJ Hill, Justin Jefferson

2021 - Rashod Bateman, Ja'marr Chase, Dwayne Eskeridge, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Davonta Smith, Elijah Moore, Kadarius Toney, Rondale Moore, Demeric Felton

The meat and potatoes

THIS IS A WORK IN PROGRESS AND I WILL BE UPDATING THIS PAGE AS I READ ADDITIONAL ARTICLES.

I will eventually sort these players by tier in terms of their expected ADP, but for now it's simply alphabetical.

+11

Chris Olave

  • + (extremely polished route-runner)
  • + (nuanced route running)
  • + (best route runner in this class)
  • + (he checks four out of six boxes with the go, hitch, in and out routes)
  • + (Displays an advanced route tree and polish at all three levels/great route-runner with polish)
  • + (great technique in route running)
  • + (silky-smooth route-runner)
  • + (Crafty overall route runner)
  • + (Excellent route-runner (arguably best in this class) )
  • + (one of college football’s most refined route-runners. A true route technician)
  • + (Olave's polish can be evidenced by his clever route running)
  •  +/- (Room for more manipulation as a route salesman - Zierlein)
+7

David Bell

  • + (His route running was immaculate)
  • + (runs proficient routes)
  • + (good route-runner/fairly good route tree)
  • + (unconventional type of elusiveness/eerily similar to Cooper Kupp)
  • + (rhythmic route-running and detailed footwork/Balance and agility for more complex route tree - Zierlein)
  • + (thrives on winning with route detail and smart angles to garner separation)
  • + (very good route runner and uses every phase of the route to his advantage/precise in his routes with great field awareness)
  • +/- (mechanical route running/Could work on selling his routes with his entire body)
Jahan Dotson

  • + (sudden and decisive route-runner)
  • + (runs sharp routes, brings polish as a route runner)
  • + (Very good route-runner who understands how to tempo his routes)
  • + (well-versed route tree/Nuanced route runner)
  • + (Runs an expansive route tree very well)
  • + (His route-running is smooth but features speed changes - Zierlein)
  • + (exceptional at manipulating DBs with his deceptive and violent route running\Simply put, Dotson is a route technician)
+6

Garrett Wilson

  • + (explodes into his route, head and shoulder fakes, creates room outside)
  • + (mastery of the finer points of route running/detailed route runner)
  • + (Great route runner, in terms of running the route and route tempo)
  • + (Creates plenty of separation on routes)
  • + (great route-running ability/gets in and out quickly)
  • + (he carries the class' second-best explosive rate (15-plus yard plays divided by targets) on staple routes)
  • + (his route-running precision netted the most separation (each route is factored in) among the draft-eligible receivers)
  • + (might be the best route runner and separator in this class)
  • + (his route running is solid at all levels)
  • + (very crisp at the the top of routes, creating a lot of separation - Jeremiah)
  • - (Improved route-runner but inconsistent)
  • - ("dancy" in his routes, struggles with physicality)
  • - (very inefficient with routes over the first two levels/Route-running is raw and segmented - Zierlein)
  • - (route-running flashiness is more of a fireworks show than a well-crafted approach/gets clunky at the top of his route)
+5

Skyy Moore

  • + (super-quick feet and freaky explosiveness into his route stem)
  • + (uses every phase of his routes as a weapon against defenders)
  • + (very flexible as a route runner/a violent route runner)
  • + (constantly displays his quickness, balance and body control with his route running/a good route runner with reliable hands)
  • + (A excellent route runner - who obviously is a student of the game
  • + (very flexible as a route runner/a precise route runner)
  • + (Ian Cummings gave Moore a nine out of ten on his scale for "agility and twitch" and "route running")
  • - (doesn’t truly burst out of his route breaks)
  • - (one-note route runner lacking acceleration out of break points and vertical juice to separate deep-Zierlein)
+4

Kyle Phillips

  • + (savvy route running)
  • + (runs good routes)
  • + (routes are crisp)
  • + (good route-running, excellent route-running, smooth footwork, immediate separation)
Khalil Shakir

  • + (possibly the best route runner at Senior Bowl)
  • + (excellent route-runner, extended route tree)
  • + (his hip sink insulates his potential as a route runner)
  • + (calculated route runner, every step has a purpose)
+3

+2

John Metchie

  •     + (a very good route runner and understands how to use all phases of the route to his advantage)
  •     + (His route running is smooth, seamless, and rarely looks forced.)
Kyle Phillips

  • + (stellar route running)
  • + ("His route running is sharp and controlled"-Shane Coughlin/"His route running is so crisp and sudden in short areas"-Josh Carney)
Charleston Rambo

  • + (improved route running)
  • + (ran great routes)
Samori Toure

  • + (ran exceptional routes)
  • + (ability to get out of breaks and separate quickly)
Christian Watson

  • + (great footwork as a route-runner)
  • + (ran crisp routes)
  • + (showcases good route-running ability)
  • + (good route runner)
  • + (has some polish as a route runner)
  • - (noticeably raw as a route runner)
  • - (he didn't look like he ran crisp routes)
  • - (Not overly refined as a route runner)
Jameson Williams

  • + (savvy route-running skills)
  • + (third-highest open rate on staple routes and the No. 1 explosive play rate)
  • + (Good overall route-runner/he shows polish and nuance with his route running)
  • - (isn't a ready-made route-runner)
+1

Calvin Austin III

  • + (Firecracker off the line/Calculated route runner/unpredictable route running)
Stanley Berryhill

  • + (ran solid routes, displayed diverse route tree)
Tanner Conner

  • + (release gave him an immediate half-step on defenders)
Dai'jean Dixon

  • + (Above-average route-runner)
  • + (Balanced, savvy route runner)
  • +/- (He can execute routes inside or outside/will need to continue to polish his route running)
  • - (Route work is too freestyle and unfocused-Lance Zierlein)
Romeo Doubs

  • + (demonstrated his speed and route running during Senior Bowl practices)
Jaivon Heiligh

  • + ("footwork, timing and burst as a route runner is outstanding."/could be one of the top two or three route runners in the draft-Eric Galko)
Tay Martin

  • + (ran terrific routes)
Wan'Dale Robinson

  • + (elite agility as a runner/leans into and out of cuts with ease and stacks moves in rapid succession/flashes excellent twitch as a route runner/some traits that are conducive to successful route running)
  • + (bevy of routes and his quick shift ability)
  • + (Despite only one full year as a full-time receiver he runs good routes)
  • - (wouldn’t classify him as a true technician)
  •  - (Average fluidity through route stems) - Zierlein
TE-Armani Rodgers

  • + (clean and precise routes)
Justyn Ross

  •  + (good, savvy route runner/has run a diverse route tree)
0

Jalen Tolbert

  • + (variety of release strategies, gets into route quickly)
  • + (Routes are gliding and smooth/Stick-shift route runner with excellent change of speeds - Zierlein)
  • - (lacking hip sink/overthinks routes)
  • - (rounds out his cuts)
-1

Drake London

  • + (quality route runner)
  • + (impressive route control for his size)
  • + (His first step is explosive and covers ground)
  • + (He is a nuanced route runner, and it’s impressive to see how quickly he can get in and out of breaks - Daniel Jeremiah)
  • + stands out because of his winning combination at all three levels of the route)
  • - (his one-speed route-running and lack of separation burst means a career full of contested catches)
  • - (route running could use some polish)
  • - (isn’t going to create much separation with his route-running/slow getting in and out of his breaks)
  • - (route running is decent but he will need to improve)
  • - (isn't a finished product as a route-runner)
  • - (one-speed route-running and lack of separation burst means a career full of contested catches - Zierlein)
-2

Treylon Burks

  • + (varies his route tempo)
  • - (will need to continue to refine his technique and route-running/inconsistent on shorter route breaks)
  • - (not running routes as well as others)
  • - (will round off some of his routes)
Alec Pierce

  •  - (has room for improvement with his route running)
  •  - (not an elusive route runner/route tree is going to be limited)
-3

George Pickens

  • +/- (Average route-runner at this point in time. Has ability to tap into but will need polish)
  • - (His route running is suspect, will need to clean up his route running)
  • - (needs to show quick-cutting ability for route-running, routes need more polish and physicality)
  • - needs to show quick-cutting ability for route-running/routes need more polish - Zierlein
 
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Changelog:

16 February - Moved Chris Olave to +4 (+3), Jameson Williams to +2 (+1), Garrett Wilson to +5 (+3), Khalil Shakir to +4 (+2), Samori Toure to +2 (+1)

18 February - Moved Chris Olave to +11 (+6), Drake London to -1 (+1), Christian Watson to +2 (+3), added comments to Jameson Williams (+1 and -1 so no move)

3 March - Moved Jahan Dotson to +6 (+4), Skyy Moore to +3 (+2), Wan'dale Robinson to +1 (-1), Jalen Tolbert to 0 (+1), Drake London to -2 (-1)
Added Alec Pierce -2, Justyn Ross +1

3 March moved David Bell to +6 (+2), Drake London to -1 (+1), Garrett Wilson to +6 (+1), George Pickens to -3 (-1)

9 March moved David Bell to +7 (+1)

16 March moved Christian Watson to +1 (-1)

 
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Added the following players:

+2 Kyle Phillips
+1 Calvin Austin III
+1 Dai'jean Dixon
+1 Jaivon Heiligh
+1 Skyy Moore

 
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Nice idea for a thread. Way to try and suss all this stuff out. One question: No


George Pickens


The forgotten man.  I am super interested in where he winds up. It looks, right now, like he's not going to be in the mix at the top, but man, lot to like.

 
I notice you didn't mention the guy I think was easily the best looking Rookie outside of Chase even though he only saw the field 4-5 solid games and that's Elijah Moore who is a very accomplished and sharp route runner, he was on my list Pre-Draft and I hated Miami for taking Waddle, wished they had moved back and taken Moore later in the 1st, Jets got a total steal with that kid, maybe they got him in the 2nd, not exactly sure when he was selected but it irritated me being a Miami fan to watch him get drafted on the Jets. 

The guy I am keeping an eye on this year is Skyy Moore, no relation that I know of to Elijah but he is guy you can draft after the first few big names are off the board and I like his explosiveness and burst, that's exactly what Miami needs is a WR that can get open quickly since Tua likes to uncork in less than 2 seconds since Miami currently has the worst OL in the NFL. Skyy is short at 5-10 and Miami's Waddle is similar height if not shorter so i am concerned we don't have that big frame body at WR, Parker might be that guy but he is always injured. 

 
This system seems to be pretty accurate, even if not scientific. Makes sense that Wilson and Bell are high on the list due to their play style and how they create opportunities. Also makes sense that Watson is above Jameson Williams because he was in the Senior Bowl so that's getting a lot of traction recently. Williams is also known more as a speed guy, and people tend to emphasize that over his route running ability. 

A bit surprised Burks is so low, I don't know much about him but it's been popular recently for pundits to have him going in the 1st round. 

 
This system seems to be pretty accurate, even if not scientific. Makes sense that Wilson and Bell are high on the list due to their play style and how they create opportunities. Also makes sense that Watson is above Jameson Williams because he was in the Senior Bowl so that's getting a lot of traction recently. Williams is also known more as a speed guy, and people tend to emphasize that over his route running ability. 

A bit surprised Burks is so low, I don't know much about him but it's been popular recently for pundits to have him going in the 1st round. 
I think it is fair to say Burks is not as refined a route runner as some of the other top receivers in this draft class.  However, what Burks lacks in route running, he more than makes up for with his incredible catch radius, his excellent hands, his body control, his competitiveness at the point of catch and sheer athleticism.  

 
rockaction said:
Nice idea for a thread. Way to try and suss all this stuff out. One question: No George Pickens? 


massraider said:
The forgotten man.  I am super interested in where he winds up. It looks, right now, like he's not going to be in the mix at the top, but man, lot to like.
I'm limited by the availability of source material.  Faust just added some links to his thread but prior to that it was just game reports.

Added George Pickens (-2)

 
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Ministry of Pain said:
I notice you didn't mention the guy I think was easily the best looking Rookie outside of Chase even though he only saw the field 4-5 solid games and that's Elijah Moore who is a very accomplished and sharp route runner, he was on my list Pre-Draft and I hated Miami for taking Waddle, wished they had moved back and taken Moore later in the 1st, Jets got a total steal with that kid, maybe they got him in the 2nd, not exactly sure when he was selected but it irritated me being a Miami fan to watch him get drafted on the Jets.
I didn't mention him or Toney in my list for 2020, but that was a straight oversight when I was typing it up.  Both of them had the same score as Rondale and Felton (+4).  I'll update the OP.

 
Wish there was something similar for hands/catching ability. Seeing guys like Hopkins, Thomas, and Chase come out of college with great routes but also amazing hands makes it feel important. Diontae has amazing routes, but his hands are suspect even after improving this past year. 

I saw Garrett Wilson and David Bell make some amazing catches away from their body, which is always nice to see. Not a fan of twitchy athletes that let the ball come in to their body every time. 

 
Wish there was something similar for hands/catching ability. Seeing guys like Hopkins, Thomas, and Chase come out of college with great routes but also amazing hands makes it feel important. Diontae has amazing routes, but his hands are suspect even after improving this past year. 

I saw Garrett Wilson and David Bell make some amazing catches away from their body, which is always nice to see. Not a fan of twitchy athletes that let the ball come in to their body every time. 
Yes, a lot of size and speed comparisons about separation and high pointing. But drops are still drops.

 
Wish there was something similar for hands/catching ability. Seeing guys like Hopkins, Thomas, and Chase come out of college with great routes but also amazing hands makes it feel important. Diontae has amazing routes, but his hands are suspect even after improving this past year. 

I saw Garrett Wilson and David Bell make some amazing catches away from their body, which is always nice to see. Not a fan of twitchy athletes that let the ball come in to their body every time. 


Would it surprise you if I said that Chase led the league in drops last year? Would it surprise you if I told you that he was tied with Keenan Allen?

Would it surprise you to find out that both Claypool and Harris were credited for more drops than Diontae Johnson?

Would it surprise you to find out that Johnson wasn't in the top-28 in the league in drops?

https://scores.nbcsports.com/fb/leaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232

 Like rodents of unusual size, I believe drops are largely a myth.  Fans remember them in an outsized manner.

 
Wish there was something similar for hands/catching ability. Seeing guys like


Hopkins


,


Thomas


, and


Chase


come out of college with great routes but also amazing hands makes it feel important. Diontae has amazing routes, but his hands are suspect even after improving this past year. 

I saw


Garrett Wilson


and


David Bell


make some amazing catches away from their body, which is always nice to see. Not a fan of twitchy athletes that let the ball come in to their body every time. 
You wanna see some Cris Carter hand-snatching nastiness? Check George Pickens' highlights.

 
You wanna see some Cris Carter hand-snatching nastiness? Check George Pickens' highlights.
There are many ways to succeed in the NFL and route-running prowess is a somewhat meaningless thing to criticize for athletes of a certain type.  From what I've read, Pickens should convert well to the NFL because he does other things really well, regardless of how analysts view his routes.

 
There are many ways to succeed in the NFL and route-running prowess is a somewhat meaningless thing to criticize for athletes of a certain type.  From what I've read,


Pickens


should convert well to the NFL because he does other things really well, regardless of how analysts view his routes.
I don't really know too much about how his route running is viewed. Is it considered a negative? 

I had one quick question, you added Toney before, and he had a good grade. I was surprised by that, as all scouting reports I saw he was considered rudimentary in this area. If I saw this thread without opening, and you asked me where Toney would rate, I would assume near the bottom, not the top.

 
I don't really know too much about how his route running is viewed. Is it considered a negative? 

I had one quick question, you added Toney before, and he had a good grade. I was surprised by that, as all scouting reports I saw he was considered rudimentary in this area. If I saw this thread without opening, and you asked me where Toney would rate, I would assume near the bottom, not the top.
Pickens is last in my list with a score of -2

Toney was a bit of a mixed bag so I tiered him below other players that had the same score.  It's the reason I forgot to list him in my OP. 

From my notes last year, have the following blurbs about him as negatives: "raw as a route runner" and "limited route tree".  These negatives kept him from being ranked higher but I'm sorry to say that I didn't keep detailed notes on the positives that I read about him.  But the positives were enough to make me take notice when he went in the 1st round and subsequently fell in rookie drafts.  I took him in about 2/3 of my leagues and in some cases traded up in the 2nd to do so.

 
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There are many ways to succeed in the NFL and route-running prowess is a somewhat meaningless thing to criticize for athletes of a certain type.  From what I've read, Pickens should convert well to the NFL because he does other things really well, regardless of how analysts view his routes.
This is so true.  Some players are able to gain separation through precise route running, some are quick or shifty, have quick feet, or an ability to sink their hips, drop their weight and change directions rapidly, some have an incredible catch radius or vertical, some have quick or strong hands, etc., and then there are just some receivers who a QB can throw to even when they are not open, and they either out-muscle or out-duel the defender for the ball.  That is part of what makes it so incredibly difficult to develop a calculus which quantifies a receiver's abilities, and when you factor in variables such as college offensive schemes and quality of competition, you understand why scouting is an imprecise endeavor.

This is what makes this effort by @tangfoot so useful.  As stated in the opening, this is not a scientific analysis.  Rather, it is a useful score based on multiple analyses.

 
In what should be a surprise to no one, I moved Chris Olave to +10 (I just got caught up on his Shark Pool thread). He probably would have been considered the best route runner of 2021 if he came out.

Today's changes: Moved Chris Olave to +11 (+6), Drake London to -1 (+1), Christian Watson to +2 (+3), added comments to Jameson Williams (+1 and -1 so no move)

 
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Would it surprise you if I said that Chase led the league in drops last year? Would it surprise you if I told you that he was tied with Keenan Allen?

Would it surprise you to find out that both Claypool and Harris were credited for more drops than Diontae Johnson?

Would it surprise you to find out that Johnson wasn't in the top-28 in the league in drops?

https://scores.nbcsports.com/fb/leaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232

 Like rodents of unusual size, I believe drops are largely a myth.  Fans remember them in an outsized manner.
I guess it would and it wouldn't with Chase, he had lots of drops in pre-season so it makes sense that it would carry over and people just forget because of the awesome plays. Keenan Allen had the 4th most targets per game, not surprising that he had a high amount of drops. 

Claypool and Harris did drop the ball a lot this year, and Diontae significantly improved his drops until the final weeks of the season. It would surprise me if Diontae wasn't near the league leader in drops over the final 4 weeks including playoffs, it seemed like every other play was a drop. But through the first 14 weeks he was doing an excellent job, that's what made the back breaking drops that much worse. 

Drops in key moments are definitely remembered more critically, but it's also very true that players with great hands have a better shot of coming down with catches. There are plenty of balls that are deemed by statisticians to be "uncatchable" that great players still come down with. I think that year in AZ when Hopkins was playing with Scrubs his catchable ball rate was like 40%, but he had like 70% receptions. Official drops might be overrated, but some players have better hands/concentration than others. 

 
Today's changes

  • Jahan Dotson to +6 (+4)
  • Skyy Moore to +3 (+2)
  • Wan'dale Robinson to +1 (-1)
  • Jalen Tolbert to 0 (+1)
  • Drake London to -2 (-1)
Added:

  • Alec Pierce -2
  • Justyn Ross +1
 
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CaveatsHistory

Players that I feel like I have identified and bumped up a bit higher than other analysts during the past few years (in order by score):

2019 - Deebo Samuel, Terry McLaurin, Riley Ridley

2020 - Jerry Jeudy, Van Jefferson, KJ Hill, Justin Jefferson

2021 - Rashod Bateman, Ja'marr Chase, Dwayne Eskeridge, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Davonta Smith, Elijah Moore, Kadarius Toney, Rondale Moore, Demeric Felton
Why is Rondale in red? It wasn't the kind of usage anyone wanted but he did catch 54 passes as a rookie. That's more than the other names in red have in career receptions combined. It wouldn't surprise me at all if next year Rondale Moore is better than Van Jefferson. 

Also, do you have a similar list for guys you knocked down your rankings for poor route running?

 
Why is Rondale in red? It wasn't the kind of usage anyone wanted but he did catch 54 passes as a rookie. That's more than the other names in red have in career receptions combined. It wouldn't surprise me at all if next year Rondale Moore is better than Van Jefferson. 

Also, do you have a similar list for guys you knocked down your rankings for poor route running?
I don't think there's any objective measure which can call Rondale Moore's rookie season a success. By the way I measure things he was on par with Elijah Moore coming into his rookie year and showed less. I certainly don't Slot Shame WRs, but the fact that both of these Moores are borderline Little People pushed me away from taking any chance on either of them during last year's rookie drafts.

I'm not saying that Rondale can't become fantasy relevant. The moves Arizona has made this offseason indicate that they think he's a major part of their plans going forward. The primary thing I'm pointing out with his name in red was that he was not a 1st-year hit.

As far as keeping track of poor route runners, not really.  You will see that I have posted both positive and negative comments about this year's crop of rookies, so this will really be the first time that I'm tracking players with negative scores.

 
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I don't think there's any objective measure which can call Rondale Moore's rookie season a success. By the way I measure things he was on par with Elijah Moore coming into his rookie year and showed less. I certainly don't Slot Shame WRs, but the fact that both of these Moores are borderline Little People pushed me away from taking any chance on either of them during last year's rookie drafts.

I'm not saying that Rondale can't become fantasy relevant. The moves Arizona has made this offseason indicate that they think he's a major part of their plans going forward. The primary thing I'm pointing out with his name in red was that he was not a 1st-year hit.

As far as keeping track of poor route runners, not really.  You will see that I have posted both positive and negative comments about this year's crop of rookies, so this will really be the first time that I'm tracking players with negative scores.
Cool, thanks. I am definitely not saying Rondale had a successful rookie year. Just wondering if he should be red already? What’s the cutoff there? I assume you had Van Jefferson as a bust after his rookie year but now he’s off it?

 
At this point it's entirely subjective.  Going forward, it will probably be something like WR36 or better.

The hits/misses part was really just there to show whether or not there appears to be any predictive capability to this exercise.

 
At this point it's entirely subjective.  Going forward, it will probably be something like WR36 or better.

The hits/misses part was really just there to show whether or not there appears to be any predictive capability to this exercise.
Yeah sorry, didn’t mean to derail the convo. I was just kind of curious what you were looking for with the outcomes. 

 
Here's my tiered list of rookie WRs.  Roast me. And yes, I'm well aware that I have Ross far higher than most.

11 Chris Olave
7 Jahan Dotson
6 Garrett Wilson
2 Jameson Williams
-1 Drake London
-2 Treylon Burks

5 Skyy Moore
2 Christian Watson

7 David Bell
2 John Metchie
-2 George Pickens
1 Wan'Dale Robinson
1 Justyn Ross

0 Jalen Tolbert
-2 Alec Pierce

5 Kyle Phillips
4 Khalil Shakir
1 Calvin Austin III

2 Charleston Rambo
2 Samori Toure
1 Stanley Berryhill
1 Tanner Conner
1 Dai'jean Dixon
 

 
I think Jameson Williams could be rated higher on route running. It's almost as if some writers are under-indexing on it due to his top end speed. As if Cheetahs can only run the go route. He is my #1WR overall. 

Drake London is the opposite. Here is a guy that has decent route running skills, but no separation, no deep speed. So it seems like some writers over-index on his route running. I was surprised he was the first WR drafted. He's a quality route running, tackle-breaking, physical WR, great after the catch. But he looks like a TE playing WR on a lot of routes. Atlanta already has Kyle Pitts on the team. This pick made no sense to me. They should have went with Jameson, Wilson or Olave. 

 
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I notice you didn't mention the guy I think was easily the best looking Rookie outside of Chase even though he only saw the field 4-5 solid games and that's Elijah Moore who is a very accomplished and sharp route runner, he was on my list Pre-Draft and I hated Miami for taking Waddle, wished they had moved back and taken Moore later in the 1st, Jets got a total steal with that kid, maybe they got him in the 2nd, not exactly sure when he was selected but it irritated me being a Miami fan to watch him get drafted on the Jets. 

The guy I am keeping an eye on this year is Skyy Moore, no relation that I know of to Elijah but he is guy you can draft after the first few big names are off the board and I like his explosiveness and burst, that's exactly what Miami needs is a WR that can get open quickly since Tua likes to uncork in less than 2 seconds since Miami currently has the worst OL in the NFL. Skyy is short at 5-10 and Miami's Waddle is similar height if not shorter so i am concerned we don't have that big frame body at WR, Parker might be that guy but he is always injured. 
Skyy Moore could not have ended up in a better situation. 

 
I notice you didn't mention the guy I think was easily the best looking Rookie outside of Chase even though he only saw the field 4-5 solid games and that's Elijah Moore who is a very accomplished and sharp route runner, he was on my list Pre-Draft and I hated Miami for taking Waddle, wished they had moved back and taken Moore later in the 1st, Jets got a total steal with that kid, maybe they got him in the 2nd, not exactly sure when he was selected but it irritated me being a Miami fan to watch him get drafted on the Jets. 

The guy I am keeping an eye on this year is Skyy Moore, no relation that I know of to Elijah but he is guy you can draft after the first few big names are off the board and I like his explosiveness and burst, that's exactly what Miami needs is a WR that can get open quickly since Tua likes to uncork in less than 2 seconds since Miami currently has the worst OL in the NFL. Skyy is short at 5-10 and Miami's Waddle is similar height if not shorter so i am concerned we don't have that big frame body at WR, Parker might be that guy but he is always injured. 


Skyy Moore could not have ended up in a better situation. 
Agreed 100% and i already liked him and alerted the bell so now it's a race to try and secure him on as many teams as possible. Even Re-Draft rookie season should see some value in getting this guy on your roster. 

 
How do we align the findings on this thread, with the results across this season ? Do the initial findings show us potential buy low situations going into the off season, or do the results conversely show where the initial findings failed ? Or is it neither really, the findings are accurate but you cant account for the individual situations that all these players find themselves in ? Appreciate the work, just wondering if we can exploit it in any way - what percentage of players that succeeded AND also fell under the + system here, broke out after a quiet first season ?
 
How do we align the findings on this thread, with the results across this season ? Do the initial findings show us potential buy low situations going into the off season, or do the results conversely show where the initial findings failed ? Or is it neither really, the findings are accurate but you cant account for the individual situations that all these players find themselves in ? Appreciate the work, just wondering if we can exploit it in any way - what percentage of players that succeeded AND also fell under the + system here, broke out after a quiet first season ?
Would also me interesting to go back and look at rookies not on this list who performed well in year 1, both WRs and TEs (if there are any) and read their scouting reports to see if route running was a positive in their draft profiles.

Would also be interesting to see a similar exercise done for the 2023 rookies (WR & TE).

just to add to this… out of the top 32 scoring rookies (in my PPR league), the following WRs and TEs were not on the original list above…
Greg Dulcich
Rashid Shaheed
Romeo Doubs
Dan Bellinger
Cade Otton
Chig Okonkwo
Jelani Woods
 
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This thread is an interesting reread 6.5 months later
I've been going back over my notes on route runners for about 3 years and it always provides new insight. Is there anything from the thread that you found to be particularly useful? I'm about to begin the process for 2023 rookies, so any constructive feedback is welcomed.
 
This thread is an interesting reread 6.5 months later
I've been going back over my notes on route runners for about 3 years and it always provides new insight. Is there anything from the thread that you found to be particularly useful? I'm about to begin the process for 2023 rookies, so any constructive feedback is welcomed.
I can't speak for anyone else but I ended up with a lot of shares of Olave because I moved him up in my rankings based on this thread. Looking forward to this year's version.
 
How do we align the findings on this thread, with the results across this season ? Do the initial findings show us potential buy low situations going into the off season, or do the results conversely show where the initial findings failed ? Or is it neither really, the findings are accurate but you cant account for the individual situations that all these players find themselves in ? Appreciate the work, just wondering if we can exploit it in any way - what percentage of players that succeeded AND also fell under the + system here, broke out after a quiet first season ?
The caveats section should include my personal thoughts on this, and I didn't add it this year. I wanted the list to stand alone apart from what I believe it offers for predictive ability. That said, I freely admit that there are many ways to win as a receiver in the NFL. Players who can positively be identified as superior route runners offer one additional toolset in that arsenal. But it's OBVIOUSLY not the only one and probably not the most important one for most players.
When everyone is on the rooftop shouting that so and so is a Surefire Can't Miss Blockbuster A1 Talent at receiver, listen to them. They are saying it for a reason. Whether or not this particular player is good at route running is irrelevant (I have learned!).

The advantage I've taken from this list is once you get past those first couple of guys, you need a way to choose between WRs who are still considered 1st round rookie picks. -Something- has to help sort them out and this is my tool for that. I was pretty high on Olave this year and took him as high as 1.04. Time will tell on that one.
Here's the current list of top 10 rookie WRs by dynasty value at KTC.
1 - Garrett Wilson
2 - Chris Olave
3 - Drake London
4 - Jameson Williams
5 - Christian Watson
6 - George Pickens
7 - Treylon Burks
8 - Jahan Dotson
9 - Wan'Dale Robinson
10 - Romeo Doubs
I certainly would not have recommended anyone take David Bell with a high rookie pick even though my system showed him as potentially very good. You still have to merge this information with ADP and the smell test.
 
How do we align the findings on this thread, with the results across this season ? Do the initial findings show us potential buy low situations going into the off season, or do the results conversely show where the initial findings failed ? Or is it neither really, the findings are accurate but you cant account for the individual situations that all these players find themselves in ? Appreciate the work, just wondering if we can exploit it in any way - what percentage of players that succeeded AND also fell under the + system here, broke out after a quiet first season ?
Would also me interesting to go back and look at rookies not on this list who performed well in year 1, both WRs and TEs (if there are any) and read their scouting reports to see if route running was a positive in their draft profiles.

Would also be interesting to see a similar exercise done for the 2023 rookies (WR & TE).

just to add to this… out of the top 32 scoring rookies (in my PPR league), the following WRs and TEs were not on the original list above…
Greg Dulcich
Rashid Shaheed
Romeo Doubs
Dan Bellinger
Cade Otton
Chig Okonkwo
Jelani Woods
Doubs was a +1, but he was the only one here who I found mention of in my research. I don't know what kind of work TEs typically get in their pro days and underwear olympics, but I think that may be a giant blind spot in this methodology. But also, how many TEs truly come into the league knowing how to run precise routes. That's not really what they're taught to do in college.
 

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