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Andy D's 2017 Mock Draft Thread - 4/17 One last "Oh, okay.What the heck..." mock (1 Viewer)

The Lions drafting a TE in the first round again seems unlikely to me. Engram might be drafted similarly high, I just don't think it will be the Lions doing it.

 
I'm interested to hear about OJ Howard to the Browns. Usually TE is a "luxury" pick. I guess he could help their blocking and the pass gaming. 

 
Borden said:
I'm interested to hear about OJ Howard to the Browns. Usually TE is a "luxury" pick. I guess he could help their blocking and the pass gaming. 
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If the Browns came away from the 1st round with Garrett and Howard, I'd be pleased.  Ozzie Newsome said the first round isn't about swinging for the fences trying to hit home runs but to make sure you get a single or double.  I think OJ is a double and Garrett is a home run with men on.

More to your point, the Browns coaching staff coached the Senior Bowl so they got to see a lot of OJ and he impressed everyone with how he handled things.  I haven't heard directly that the Browns are interested in OJ so I'm not sure this will happen but it makes sense on that level.  It does seem a luxury but at the same time I think he is going to be a 'solid' player and I go back to Ozzie Newsome and think it is one of the safer picks of this draft so I like it on that account.  Not sure what Andy has to add but I have no real issues with him being mocked to the 12th pick.

 
@Bracie Smathers Thanks. I don't have any issues with the pick either. Just like hearing the theory behind maybe a less obvious pick. The safeness of the pick does make sense. 

 
Do you really think Reddick has boosted his value that much? I know he was a Senior Bowl darling and got himself into the early second, maybe late first round discussion. But top 15 seems pretty crazy to me.

 
thatguy said:
Do you really think Reddick has boosted his value that much? I know he was a Senior Bowl darling and got himself into the early second, maybe late first round discussion. But top 15 seems pretty crazy to me.
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Yes I do. A former safety turned defensive end that runs like a safety who can rush the passer and drop into coverage...is worth a ton. He killed the combine.

He would have been the 2nd fastest LB if he tested with that group and only because Jabrill Peppers didn't test with the backs.

 
Biabreakable said:
The Lions drafting a TE in the first round again seems unlikely to me. Engram might be drafted similarly high, I just don't think it will be the Lions doing it.
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Insanity is repeating the same mistakes and expecting different results.  

Total Lions move, hopefully the new regime has moved past this......

 
swabs said:
Insanity is repeating the same mistakes and expecting different results.  

Total Lions move, hopefully the new regime has moved past this......
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Engram may end up being a better player than Ebron.

The only way this would make sense is if they consider Ebron a bust yet still want a move TE in their offense. I think Ebron is way to young to be able to decide that about him and he has improved some each season so far.

I just think the Lions have too many other needs to be considering a TE in the first round when they already have one on the roster. I don't think the 5 year option at the TE position is very expensive for them either.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
1.    Browns – Myles Garrett, DE Texas A&M
2.    49ers – Solomon Thomas, DE Stanford 
3.    Bears - Deshaun Watson, QB Clemson.  
4.    Jaguars – Marshon Lattimore, CB Ohio St
5.    Titans (from  Eagles) – Jamal Adams, S LSU  
6.    Jets – Mitchell Trubisky, QB North Carolina 
7.    Chargers – Malik Hooker, S tOSU
8.    Panthers – Leonard Fournette, RB LSU 
9.    Bengals – Jonathan Allen, DT/DE Alabama.     
10.    Bills – Jabrill Peppers, S/LB Michigan
11.    Saints – Derek Barnett, DE Tennessee
12.    Browns – OJ Howard, TE  Alabama 
13.    Cardinals – Rueben Foster, LB Alabama
14.    Colts – Haason Reddick, LB Temple.  
15.    Eagles (from Vikings) – Mike Williams, WR Clemson
16.    Ravens – Sidney Jones, CB Washington
17.    Redskins – Zach Cunningham, LB Vanderbilt 
18.    Saints (from Titans) – Marlon Humphrey, CB Alabama
19.    Buccaneers – Corey Davis, WR Western Michigan
20.    Broncos – Ryan Ramczyk, OT Wisconsin 
21.    Lions – Evan Engram, TE Ole Miss. 
22.    Dolphins – Taco Charlton, DE Michigan
23.    Giants – John Ross, WR Washington
24.    Raiders – Dalvin Cook, RB FSU
25.    Texans – Garrett Bolles, OT Utah
26.    Seahawks – Forrest Lamp, OL Western Kentucky
27.    Chiefs – Christian McCaffery, RB Stanford
28.    Cowboys – Curtis Samuel, WR tOSU
29.    Packers – Gareon Conley, CB tOSU 
30.    Steelers – TJ Watt, OLB Wisconsin
31.    Falcons -  Charles Harris, DE/OLB Missouri 
32.    Patriots – Cam Robinson, OL Alabama

Just missed: Budda Baker, Tim Williams, Ryan Anderson, Jarrad Davis, David Njoku, Carl Lawson, Alvin Kamara, Patrick Mahomes, Davis Webb, Obi Melifonwu
 
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Peppers still in the top 10?

 
swabs said:
Just saying that it'd be terrible to draft another TE who can't block in the 1st round when there are much bigger needs.
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But the draft isn't always about "biggest need + Best Available Player = current selection". There are seven rounds.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
So they shouldn't have drafted Calvin Johnson?

This is an overly abused saying.

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/nfl/lions/2017/03/03/lions-tight-end-needs-rise-surface-again/98708550/
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From the article:

Adding a tight end beyond Round 1 remains the far more likely scenario. In the second round, Ashland’s Adam Shaheen merits a long look. The DII standout, who played some college basketball before fully committing to football, has a massive 6-foot-6 frame and tips the scales at nearly 280 pounds.
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That has kind of been my perspective since the rumors about the Lions interest in adding a TE began a month or so ago, that they need a blocking TE to replace Pettigrew more than a receiving TE like Ebron which they already have.

This is a really deep TE class as well, so getting a good TE in later rounds seems very feasible, especially if they are looking for more of a blocking TE than a joker type.

The article also mentions at the end that they are planning to sign Ebron to an extension, but that a deal is still some months away from happening. They have the 5th year option to decide following the draft, which should be very reasonable cap wise compared to the 5th year option at higher paying positions.

A guy like Sprinkle or something in the 3rd round or later seems like a better use of draft resources than using another 1st round pick on one. Especially one that you plan to be running routes more than help block. They already have a guy like that.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
I wasn't real clear about what I was trying to do here . Round 2 is disconnected from round 1 and I start from the idea that SF didn't take a QB or trade for one. I was trying to show that Watson probably falls out of the first and Mahomes and Webb shouldn't be a surprise.

The 49ers picks can be considered Foster/Watson. If its Cousins in the 1st then I could see a WR in the 2nd. 
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Hey teams sometimes double up on QBs on it works out.  The Cowboys took Aikman and Walsh.  Worked out.  The Redskins took RG3 and Cousins.  Worked out.  It could happen.

 
If you're  betting on TE versus the field, bet the field of course.

Again, I think mocks are more valuable and fun when talking about the relative value of players against each other.  Arguing accuracy isn't much fun.

The Lions would be a good spot for one of the backs or DEs if you want an alternate.

 
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Andy Dufresne said:
If you're  betting on TE versus the field, bet the field of course.

Again, I think mocks are more valuable and fun when talking about the relative value of players against each other.  Arguing accuracy isn't much fun.

The Lions would be a good spot for one of the backs or DEs if you want an alternate.
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I appreciate that. I agree that Engram may be drafted in a similar area f the draft as where you have him. The Dolphins for example have talked about TE being an important position for them to improve as they cannot rely on Jordan Cameron to stay healthy. He is a very good prospect and maybe he ends up being drafted a bit higher than either of us think.

 
Please no more 1st rd TEs for Detroit. The draft is deep at TE so no reason to address that position in the first. 

DE, CB, OL or LB are the only options in the first. 

 
Very solid mock, Andy.  I can't find a whole lot to quibble with here.  I like your drop of Tim Williams out of round 1, I think that's more than likely to happen.  I said earlier in this thread that I didn't think there was any way he was still on the board at 30, but I've changed my tune.  After reading about his off-field issues and after his combine performance, I think he's a day 2 pick.  Someone might get a steal there, but I don't see many teams being willing to gamble a first-round selection on him.  I wouldn't cry if the Steelers took him at 30, but I like your pick of Watt better.  He's the guy I'm projecting at #30 right now.

 
The Captain said:
Please no more 1st rd TEs for Detroit. The draft is deep at TE so no reason to address that position in the first. 

DE, CB, OL or LB are the only options in the first.
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That's a bit extreme.  But there's no way they pass on taco if he's available. 

This is a guy that people describe as freaky athletic all the time. He gets that common moniker. He’s 6’6", 272, really freaky athlete in that he’s very powerful, he’s got super long hands, he’s got very quick speed and a nasty spin move. And with the right teaching, I think he can have quite the bullrush.

Now, he’s a guy that a lot of people are a little scared of because of his limited production. He wasn’t a starter at Michigan until his senior year, but he did pick it up pretty quickly with that new defensive coordinator that was there in 2016. He’s much more of a 4-3 defensive end and it really showed that year. He finished with 9.5 sacks his senior year, including 13 tackles for loss. First-team Big Ten. This is a guy that is going to fit the Detroit Lions perfectly.

The Lions, last year, only had 26 sacks; that’s the second-fewest in all of the NFL. They only had 14 takeaways all year, that’s the fourth-fewest in the league, and that includes five straight games to finish the season with no turnovers. Taco Charlton is a guy who is going to get to the quarterback, he’s going to create some pressure and most importantly, he’s going to get some turnovers for this team that desperately needs playmakers on defense.

 
The Captain said:
Please no more 1st rd TEs for Detroit. The draft is deep at TE so no reason to address that position in the first. 

DE, CB, OL or LB are the only options in the first. 
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Agree, it would be nuts. Just sign Jack Doyle and a pure blocking TE. Draft a late round project guy and give Ebron one more year to see if it can all come together. Decent TEs are just too cheap and plentiful to waste a 1st round pick on. A first round pick needs to be a guy that can make an impact on 3 downs, in multiple facets of the game and unless it's a QB, right away. I don't see any of the TEs fitting that bill. 

 
-OZ- said:
That's a bit extreme.  But there's no way they pass on taco if he's available. 

This is a guy that people describe as freaky athletic all the time. He gets that common moniker. He’s 6’6", 272, really freaky athlete in that he’s very powerful, he’s got super long hands, he’s got very quick speed and a nasty spin move. And with the right teaching, I think he can have quite the bullrush.

Now, he’s a guy that a lot of people are a little scared of because of his limited production. He wasn’t a starter at Michigan until his senior year, but he did pick it up pretty quickly with that new defensive coordinator that was there in 2016. He’s much more of a 4-3 defensive end and it really showed that year. He finished with 9.5 sacks his senior year, including 13 tackles for loss. First-team Big Ten. This is a guy that is going to fit the Detroit Lions perfectly.

The Lions, last year, only had 26 sacks; that’s the second-fewest in all of the NFL. They only had 14 takeaways all year, that’s the fourth-fewest in the league, and that includes five straight games to finish the season with no turnovers. Taco Charlton is a guy who is going to get to the quarterback, he’s going to create some pressure and most importantly, he’s going to get some turnovers for this team that desperately needs playmakers on defense.
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He is a very good athlete, but I don't think he tested out as freaky. He is a perfect fit for what the Bengals like. Long, lean, lanky DE. That seems like a very likely landing spot. He would be a good fit in Detroit, but I just don't know if he's special. 

 
If the draft falls this way, I'd prefer the Steelers traded down and got Tredavious White, Raekwon McMillan, Watt, Takkarist Mckinley, or Budda Baker in the top of the 2nd round.  Watt isn't a good value at 30, and doesn't necessarily project to be the speed player that the Steelers have been taking recently.  

If the draft prior to 30 is right, the Steelers could take McDowell.  Especially if they're not sure they can afford to resign Tuitt.  He's an extremely talented player with an attitude problem, who doesn't try hard 100% of the time.  But if they can somehow get him to work hard, he could be great.

 
I think if Patrick Mahomes falls into the late first, I expect Houston to grab him before an OT. The team sounds most aggressive about QB than I can ever remember them being. It's quite possible that they sign a FA QB and draft in the first round and cut Osweiler to eat the contract (if they get someone like Romo or Cutler). The draft needs to mainly focus on offense and totally agree OT is the most likely pick, but rumblings are Mahomes is expected to go mid to high first now and if he slips I doubt the Texans let him fall further.

 
I don’t see John Ross to the Giants at all.

Especially with Garrett Bolles, Lamp, Cam Robinson, and David Njoku still on the board.

Why do you think Ross is a fit there?

 
Yenrub said:
I don’t see John Ross to the Giants at all.

Especially with Garrett Bolles, Lamp, Cam Robinson, and David Njoku still on the board.

Why do you think Ross is a fit there?
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Because beyond OBJ and Shepard they have almost nothing.

Ross would be a huge value pick and give large returns to a three wide set. 

I know Flowers is a wreck.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
McDowell is not a first rounder. He's an inconsistent effort guy and from the sounds of the interviews a real turd. 
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Watched some more tape on Watt, coming around a bit but I still see a second rounder.  But with the way your draft fell, there's no one I'd like that much at 30.  Usually the sign of a solid mock, being frustrated at the end of the first.

 
Pretty sure everyone is mock drafted out by now but...what the heck.

Round 1
Pick 
1. Cleveland Browns - Myles Garrett    Texas A&M

2. San Francisco 49ers - Solomon Thomas    Stanford

3. Chicago Bears  - Jamal Adams    L.S.U.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars - O.J. Howard    Alabama

5. Tennessee Titans - Marshon Lattimore    Ohio St.

6. New York Jets - Deshaun Watson    Clemson    

7. Los Angeles Chargers - Jonathan Allen    Alabama    

8. Baltimore from Carolina Panthers - Leonard Fournette    L.S.U.

9. Cincinnati Bengals - Dalvin Cook    Florida St.

10. Buffalo Bills - Cam Robinson Alabama 

11. New Orleans Saints - Malik Hooker    Ohio St.

12. Cleveland Browns -Mitchell Trubisky North Carolina

13. Arizona Cardinals - DeShone Kizer    Notre Dame

14. Philadelphia Eagles - Derek Barnett    Tennessee    

15. Indianapolis Colts - Reuben Foster    Alabama

16. Carolina from Baltimore Ravens - Takkarist McKinley    UCLA    

17. Washington Redskins - Haason Reddick Temple

18. Tennessee Titans -Mike Williams    Clemson    

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Christian McCaffrey    Stanford

20. Denver Broncos - Ryan Ramczyk    Wisconsin

21. Detroit Lions - Jabrill Peppers    Michigan

22. Miami Dolphins - Forrest Lamp    Western Kentucky    

23. New York Giants - Jarrad Davis    Florida

24. Oakvegas Raiders - Gareon Conley    Ohio St.    

25. Houston Texans - Patrick Mahomes II    Texas Tech    

26. Seattle Seahawks - Kevin King    Washington    

27. Cleveland Browns from Kansas City Chiefs - Corey Davis    Western Michigan

28. Dallas Cowboys - John Ross    Washington        

29. San Francisco from Green Bay Packers - Davis Webb    California

30. Pittsburgh Steelers - Tim Williams    Alabama

31. Atlanta Falcons - Taylor Moton    Western Michigan    

32. New Orleans Saints -     Chidobe Awuzie    Colorado

Pick (overall) 
1 (33). Kansas City Chiefs from Cleveland Browns - T.J. Watt    Wisconsin 
2 (34). Green Bay Packers from San Francisco 49ers -   Marlon Humphrey    Alabama     
3 (35). Jacksonville Jaguars - Joe Mixon    Oklahoma 
4 (36). Chicago Bears - Malik McDowell    Michigan St.    
5 (37). Los Angeles Rams - Garett Bolles    Utah
6 (38). Los Angeles Chargers - Budda Baker    Washington
7 (39). New York Jets - Fabian Moreau    UCLA     
8 (40). Carolina Panthers -     Alvin Kamara    Tennessee    
9 (41). Cincinnati Bengals - Taco Charlton    Michigan
10 (42). New Orleans Saints - Charles Harris    Missouri 
11 (43). Philadelphia Eagles - Tre’Davious White    L.S.U.
12 (44). Buffalo Bills - Obi Melifonwu    Connecticut 
13 (45). Arizona Cardinals - JuJu Smith-Schuster    USC    
14 (46). Indianapolis Colts - Dan Feeney    Indiana
15 (47). Carolina from Baltimore Ravens - David Njoku    Miami (FL)    
16 (48). Minnesota Vikings - Adoree’ Jackson    USC    
17 (49). Washington Redskins - Josh Jones    North Carolina St.    
18 (50). Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Quincy Wilson    
19 (51). Denver Broncos - Zach Cunningham    Vanderbilt
20 (52). Cleveland Browns - Evan Engram    Mississippi
21 (53). Detroit Lions - Chris Wormley    Michigan    
22 (54). Miami Dolphins - Carl Lawson    Auburn    
23 (55). New York Giants - Gerald Everett    South Alabama     
24 (56). Oakland Raiders - Raekwon McMillan    Ohio St. 
25 (57). Houston Texans - Dorian Johnson    Pittsburgh
26 (58). Seattle Seahawks - Antonio Garcia    Troy    
27 (59). Kansas City Chiefs - Dion Dawkins    Temple 
28 (60). Dallas Cowboys - Jordan Willis    Kansas St.
29 (61). Green Bay Packers - Tarell Basham    Ohio 
30 (62). Pittsburgh Steelers - Zay Jones    East Carolina    
31 (63). Atlanta Falcons - Desmond King    Iowa
32 (64). Carolina Panthers - Roderick Johnson    Florida St.
 

 
I love the Raiders picks. Covers a couple of needs in Conley and McMillan. The only downside is that as a Hawkeye fan I would have to cheer for a couple of Buckeyes. 

On a side note I did a Raiders mock draft last night and slotted the exact same two players to the Raiders.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
I don't know why fans don't want Deone Buchannon on their team. Unless you want a WR he's the guy that would make the most impact here.
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Lions already have a LB/S hybrid in Miles Killebrew. I am worried Peppers most useful role will be in the return game. 

 
First, thanks for doing this.

Second, no way in hell would Carolina trade out if Fournette is there. Regardless, why do mockers give us McKinley? He's a 3-4 OLB, not a 4-3 DE. He doesn't fit us. Also, his agility (3 cone, short shuttle) is awful so he wouldn't be a good replacement for TD even though we have Shaq Thompson for that.

If, we don't like Fournette and do your trade, then I see some changes. First, we'd take McCaffery at 16 (or John Ross) and Obi Melifonwu at 40. I like Njoku at 47. I don't think we've even looked at Johnson, so at 64, I would actually think Demarcus Walker at DE would be the pick.

If we get out of the 1st 2 rounds with McCaffery, Obi, Njoku and Walker, I'd be happy enough to overlook not getting Fournette. McKinley, Kamara, Njoku and Johnson and there would be civil unrest in Charlotte, especially since only Njoku is on our visit/met list so far.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
I don't know why fans don't want Deone Buchannon on their team. Unless you want a WR he's the guy that would make the most impact here.
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I think there are some that just don't see him as that great of a defensive player.  He's athletic but not a great defender.  To me he's just one of those extremely athletic guys who can play multiple positions on both sides of the ball but doesn't excel at any one position other than return man.  He can fill in at certain roles on defense but he's not a starter there.  He can also be a weapon on offense but he's not a full time starter there either.  I wouldn't spend a first round pick on a player like that.

 
McKinley is not just a 3-4 OLB. He's a 4-3 pass rushing menace.

Carolina isn't deep enough to reject trades netting them extra 2nd round picks. 

 
Good stuff but I'm hoping you're wrong on at least two things. 

1. If Foster falls to indy, this Titans fan living in Alabama is gonna be pissed.  I didn't think he would fall past the saints but it's possible now with their signings.  Still he shouldn't fall to 15.

2. I'd like the Titans to trade down from 18 instead of taking Williams.  Not sure who would trade up, maybe Dallas. Would their 1st and 2nd net the 18? Titans walk away with Lattimore, Tim Williams and Zay jones.  (Maybe a dream but feasible)

 
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