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Pete Buttigieg Suspends Campaign - Effect? (1 Viewer)

Helps Biden, but the impact is moderate at best.

I could see him as a VP candidate. I’d be surprised if he endorses any candidate in the near term to keep these options open. 

 
Would think it probably increases the chances of a contested convention more than anything else.  538 hasn't updated their estimate yet though.  Will be interesting.

 
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I wonder if the DNC requested that he do this before Tuesday.  It would seem as if there is some strategy here.  Wouldn’t be surprised to see Amy announce as well.

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
It should help Biden cross the 15% threshold in California.
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Hasn't most of California had vote by mail for the last 4 weeks, or does that depend on county? I don't know what % of people plan on voted on Tuesday, but a significant number already have cast ballots before he dropped out.

 
huthut said:
Hasn't most of California had vote by mail for the last 4 weeks, or does that depend on county? I don't know what % of people plan on voted on Tuesday, but a significant number already have cast ballots before he dropped out.
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Actually Ive been worried about this but CNN is reporting that it’s not the case. They just said that the number of early ballots in California is historically low this year- apparently people are waiting to see who might quit. 

One of those early votes, however, was from my wife- she mailed in her vote for Pete on Friday lol. She’s a little ticked off right now. 

 
More from Nate Silver:

Nate Silver‏ @NateSilver538 5m5 minutes ago

Buttigieg dropping out may actually increase the likelihood of a contested convention. He was polling at <15% almost everywhere on Super Tuesday, meaning he was tracking to get very few delegates, but his votes will help other candidates to get over 15% and get delegates.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1234270530863345669

 
huthut said:
Hasn't most of California had vote by mail for the last 4 weeks, or does that depend on county? I don't know what % of people plan on voted on Tuesday, but a significant number already have cast ballots before he dropped out.
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I wondered about that too. 

I live in TN and we had early voting that I missed before Super Tuesday. Was deciding between Biden / Buttigieg / Bloomberg. 

 
lakerstan said:
I wonder if the DNC requested that he do this before Tuesday.  It would seem as if there is some strategy here.  Wouldn’t be surprised to see Amy announce as well.
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I wouldn't be surprised if he got a call. Abby Phillip did report that he didn't want to be responsible for splitting the non-Sanders note. And also that the campaign could find no path to victory running the numbers. It's the right career move for him.
I think Klobuchar is in through Tues (because of the MN primary), but I thought Buttigieg would be in til then, too.....

 
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Sheriff Bart said:
Yes there will be is - $165 on Bovada 
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That's 62%.  538's update is 64%.  So pretty consistent.

Biden's SC win and Pete dropping out have me convinced to hold my nose and vote for Biden Tuesday.  In a vacuum I'd much prefer Sanders, but IMO the Bernie folks have seemed so unreasonable for four+ years now that I can't see them agreeing to do anything sensible at a contested convention if they have the plurality, but not a majority.

 
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
That's 62%.  538's update is 64%.  So pretty consistent.

Biden's SC win and Pete dropping out have me convinced to hold my nose and vote for Biden Tuesday.  In a vacuum I'd much prefer Sanders, but IMO the Bernie folks have seemed so unreasonable for four+ years now that I can't see them agreeing to do anything sensible at a contested convention if they have the plurality, but not a majority.
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I think my Warren supporting parents are probably voting Sanders Tuesday, coming to the exact opposite reaction from the same conclusion. They figured that Sanders will probably have a plurality and not a majority, and if he is denied the nomination some number of Sanders voters will stay home on election day, leading to a massive Trump victory and probably poor downstream election results too. Basically they said he is holding the party hostage right now, if he loses everyone loses. 

 
Biden needs to trying to grab a bunch of his staff. He has had a pretty good ground game and Biden has had a problem there. I think most people have come to the conclusion that it is Biden or Sanders. I expect Biden to get Buttigieg supporters at about 2 to 1 over Sanders. 

 
This helps Biden.  But not a ton.  Mostly it helps no one get a majority of delegates.  The problem will arise if Sanders has a plurality and he is denied the nomination, this looks more likely today.

 
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Benefits the moderates in the race.

Odds are, a couple more will have to drop out to give the race to someone without contest.

Biden has shown he can stick with it, and although he's not exciting and I really wish there was a better option, he seems to be the best to take the moderate vote and take on Trump.  If he paired with a Harris, or maybe a Booker...it'd be a powerful ticket in terms of getting out the democratic vote, especially if he can win nomination outright.

If Amy and Mike dropped out...he'd have pretty good odds.  If Mike B. is serious about beating Trump, and not letting Bernie win, dropping out before Super Tuesday and throwing his support to Biden would do it.

 
Living in SC, and having just been through the primary experience here, it does make me question the validity of the current polling.  We were all expecting about a 4-8% Biden win.  My first choice was Mayor Pete, but I ultimately felt his weakness with minority voters no longer made him a viable candidate and decided to go with Biden to help him run up the score a bit.  Seems a lot of people (just anecdotally) did the same.  I've seen Nate Silver and others comment on the flaws of rural polling and SC really exposed that.  I also think there's a psychology involved that's just not captured by polling (my vote was different than how I felt I would have voted a week earlier).

 
caustic said:
Seems like Klobuchar is staying in until Tuesday so Bernie doesn’t win MN—I bet she’s out immediately after that. No idea what Warren’s plan is.
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I think Warren's thinking might be the same for MA as Klobuchar's is for MN

 
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huthut said:
I think my Warren supporting parents are probably voting Sanders Tuesday, coming to the exact opposite reaction from the same conclusion. They figured that Sanders will probably have a plurality and not a majority, and if he is denied the nomination some number of Sanders voters will stay home on election day, leading to a massive Trump victory and probably poor downstream election results too. Basically they said he is holding the party hostage right now, if he loses everyone loses. 
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If Bernie voters are going to bite off their collective noses to spite their face, nothing much we can do about it.  A lot of folks are going to stay home if it's Bernie v. Trump.  Or vote for Trump.  

 
Too bad. He has a bright future. Klobuchar's rise in NH was the nail really. She doesn't have that strong debate and showing and he maybe wins NH and is catapulted a little higher. Frustrating he could never get minorities on board. Will be Sanders, Biden, Bloomberg shortly.

 
IMO, helps Biden tremendously......and I'd be honestly surprised if Buttigieg didn't offer an endorsement of Biden; mainly simply because of Buttigiegs statement that (paraphrasing) Democrats need to vote a Democratic Candidate in who is ACTUALLY a Democrat.  While Klobachur could also be considered here.....the reality is that it is going to be two Independents and a Democrat in the race after Tues. 

 
cobalt_27 said:
If Bernie voters are going to bite off their collective noses to spite their face, nothing much we can do about it.  A lot of folks are going to stay home if it's Bernie v. Trump.  Or vote for Trump.  
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Polling does not support that. 

 
huthut said:
I think my Warren supporting parents are probably voting Sanders Tuesday, coming to the exact opposite reaction from the same conclusion. They figured that Sanders will probably have a plurality and not a majority, and if he is denied the nomination some number of Sanders voters will stay home on election day, leading to a massive Trump victory and probably poor downstream election results too. Basically they said he is holding the party hostage right now, if he loses everyone loses. 
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Honestly, if that be the case...so be it.  I figure they'd have more disdain for another 4 years of Trump than I would......and what, Bernie's going to come back at 82 and run in 2024?....or even Warren at 74?

 
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