Zac Stacy is the highest drafted 5th round or later NFL pick in dynast (4 Viewers)

[LususV]

I have a question for the pro Stacy posters. If the Rams didn't/don't see Richardson and/or Pead as the answer at RB, why did they wait until 5.27 to draft an RB? Why did they pass on Stacy at 5.16 when 10 rbs were already off the board. Why did NFL teams draft 12 rbs before Stacy?One of the main arguments I see from the pro Stacy posters is situation. The Rams actions in the draft suggest they don't agree with you (waiting until late 5th/passing on rb mid 5th). How do you explain that?I'm not saying Stacy doesn't have a chance, but if we are honest, the odds are low, but reading some of these posts would lead you to believe Stacy has a better than 50/50 chance. If I am wrong, please post what you think the odds are.

I'll try to explain where I'm at with Stacy and maybe this jives with some of his supporters and maybe not. I don't view Stacy as a top shelf talent. I don't think he's going to be some kind of long term starter in the NFL. But, then again, very few are and, especially at RB, there's tons of turnover with moments that can be taken advantage of. I think Stacy is a decent enough athlete based on his combine numbers and looked solid enough from what I've seen that I think he could be a very capable starter if given the chance. Which brings me to the St. Louis situation. I've said this in other threads but I don't view either Pead or Richardson as full-time starters. They are both simply too small (both under 200 lbs). So, unless they bulk up, I don't think either of those guys will be primary ball carriers. Not without elite speed, you just don't see RBs that small as feature backs. Now, it could be that StL goes with a full-on RBBC that doesn't lend itself to any relevant fantasy players on a consistent basis at RB. Or, it's possible that a guy like Stacy can do well enough to get a decent number of carries. He's not going to be a 300 carry RB, but it doesn't take that much to excite some owners. When you look at St. Louis and Fisher, Pead went in the 2nd round last year and Richardson went in the 7th. But it was Richardson that saw most of the work behind SJax while Pead barely played. Fisher is going to play the guys that perform. And given what they have in Pead and Richardson (again, of the belief neither is big carry material at their size), the opportunity for Stacy to jump into the rotation and carve out a large role is there. Look at guys in similar situations and what's happened to their values at times. Guys like Torain, Helu, Andre Brown, Ballard, Bryce Brown, Dwyer, Tate, Starks.....all marginal RBs (not top shelf talents) that had relative spikes in value when given a chance. I see Stacy cut from the same cloth and could provide some short production and possible value down the road. The problem becomes when you get married to a guy like that and hold longer than you should if his value far exceeds his true worth. So yes, I actually believe he has decent odds (not 50/50, but not barely above zero either) to get the majority of the carries at some point in the near future. And if that happens, his value gets a nice spike above mid 2nd and someone is likely to pay for it.

Good post. Btw, St. Louis did trade their 2 6ths for the extra 5th to take him. I recall reading that they had a list of RBs they wanted, and the list started thinning out quickly, and they wanted to make sure they got at least one (but were agnostic on which one). Stacy was the last one left on their list, so they snagged him at their last opportunity. Had there been a run of RBs in the 3rd, they'd probably have taken him there, but they didn't have to, so they didn't. But it's not like they don't value him. RBs have just been devalued a lot in today's game. I think he gets carries as early as week 1 (short yardage situations, definitely). If Pead and Richardson don't impress, he's got an opportunity for more. He obviously does not have top-10 RB upside, but top-30 is absolutely not out of the question.

He was last on their list and they would have taken him in the 3rd? Stretch much? Please post a link

"I recall reading" implies I don't have a link ready.

I didn't see a quote on the 3rd round thing; I was reading in between the lines. Not unlike the Cowboys reaching for the last interior lineman they had graded highly (Frederick) I think the opposite happened to RBs - if there are 5 you like, and none are drafted by the end of the 3rd, there's no need to reach for one if they're all in the same tier. Not all teams are BPA.

 

[LususV]

A couple links I found with a quick google search:

http://www.robrains.com/RAMSNFL/tabid/92/entryid/340/rams-make-another-draft-trade-grab-vandy-running-back.aspx

Rams Make Another Draft Trade, Grab Vandy Running Back
By Rob Rains

It just didn’t seem right that the third and final day of the NFL draft would end before the Rams made another trade

After making two deals on Thursday, the Rams finished off the draft on Saturday by sending their two sixth-round picks to Houston for a chance to select Vanderbilt running back Zac Stacy.

“He was one of probably the last guys on our board that we were really, really jacked about,” said general manager Les Snead. “The rest was just going to be people we liked, but not jacked about, so at that point in time we said, ‘Hey, let’s go get him.’ We had been managing that running back board a little bit, and he was a guy we’ve liked for a while. It went from deep to thin pretty quickly so we went and nabbed him.”

The Rams had conducted a private workout with Stacy in Nashville a couple of weeks ago and knew they wanted to select a running back in the draft after the departure of Steven Jackson as a free agent.

“Zac is a very explosive runner,” said coach Jeff Fisher. “He averaged, I think, over six yards per carry in that conference, which is something to be said. He’s an outstanding young man. He’s smart. He’s good out of the backfield. He’s a pass protector. He’s a complete back. He’s a strong inside power runner that kind of gives us a change of pace. You can’t have too many of these guys. We’re looking forward to Isaiah (Pead) taking a step and Daryl (Richardson) continuing to improve, and Terrance (Ganaway), but this was a guy we felt like had a chance to make some plays for us.”

Because the Rams had already traded away their seventh round pick, Stacy became the third and final player selected by the team on Saturday.

In the fourth round, the team picked Alabama offensive lineman Barrett Jones, who has played tackle, center and guard, and with its first pick in the fifth round chose Brandon McGee, a cornerback from Miami. All three players picked on Saturday were team captains in college, something Fisher said was more of a coincidence than a team strategy.

The picks capped what Snead and the Rams considered a very successful draft.

“As I was walking down here (to meet with the media) I was going, ‘Hey’ I need to decompress a little bit,’ because this week really started a month ago when we came in here for the intense meetings,” Snead said. “Then you do a lot of private workouts and then you spend the early part of this week trying to figure out (No.) 16 or (No.) 22 and the second-round pick – that takes energy. Next thing you know we just traded the rest of the picks to end it. From start to finish, very pleased, I think each player fits a role, each player was coveted. They’re going to come in and add, I’d say, playmakers, and depth in a lot of different ways to this team, both on the defensive and offensive side of the ball.”

Fisher also thought the team accomplished what it set out to do before the draft began.

“I feel great, going back to the beginning of the process,” Fisher said. “ Les and his staff did a great job, just getting started and then we got the coaches involved. From top to bottom, it couldn’t have gone better for us. We certainly took advantage of what we started last year with, with the Washington trade. Obviously, we’re looking forward to continuing again that next year. We feel like, not only through free agency, but also through the last three days that we’ve improved this football team with players that have played positions that create problems and help us to get better.”

http://www.foxsportsmidwest.com/nfl/st-louis-rams/story/Rookie-RB-Zac-Stacy-could-make-early-imp?blockID=910241&feedID=8745

Rookie RB Zac Stacy could make early impact with Rams

ST. LOUIS -- On the morning of April 27, Zac Stacy went fishing. He found some worms, found some water and cast a line. But his big catch came via phone call later that afternoon.

Stacy calls it an opportunity, but he's being modest. If the 5-foot-8, 222-pound bowling ball of a running back had brainstormed the best potential teams to select him in the NFL Draft, the wide-open backfield in St. Louis surely would have shot the Rams to the top of his list.

Here was a team with a Steven Jackson-sized hole. The featured bruiser who thundered through nine seasons in blue and gold — racking up 10,135 yards, 56 touchdowns and three Pro Bowl berths along the way — had left for Atlanta. Left behind were Daryl Richardson and Isaiah Pead, two 200-pound, change-of-pace backs fresh off rookie seasons that had existed in Jackson's shadow, along with Terrance Ganaway, whom the Rams claimed off waivers in September 2012. Richardson, who carried the ball 98 times for 475 yards, surely had the inside lane on the starting job. But the competition would be as open as a rookie could hope.

"Regardless of what team I would have got drafted to, I would have had the same mentality, which is go in and compete," Stacy said. "For the most part, I just want to come in, be productive and consistent."

Signs point to Stacy getting that chance sooner rather than later.

"Any time you lose a guy like Steven Jackson, who has been here for such a long time, and really the other guys are unproven," Rams running backs coach Ben Sirmans said. "If I'm looking at that as a rookie coming in, I'm saying to myself: 'I think I've got a great opportunity, and a chance to compete for playing time.'"

While the knee-jerk reaction to Jackson's departure created a clamor for another big-name back, the Rams let 12 players at that position get drafted before trading two sixth-round picks to snag Stacy at No. 160. The move was well-researched, one based on the strengths Stacy could immediately offer the existing group in St. Louis.

Stacy was a four-year player at Vanderbilt, but he bloomed during his junior and senior seasons under new coach James Franklin and offensive coordinator John Donovan. When the Rams drafted Stacy, Donovan wasn't surprised.

"Sometimes, you get picked, and you get picked by somebody that didn't show a lot of interest," he said. "They showed a lot of interest. They definitely did their background checks on him, and talked to a lot of people."

Stacy had the numbers. He compiled a total of 2,334 rushing yards during his final two seasons, more than any other SEC running back totaled from 2011-12. His rushing touchdown total in that time period, 24, tied for first with Eddie Lacy, the former Alabama back the Green Bay Packers selected with the 61st pick. Stacy also averaged 5.7 yards per carry in that span.

"He just played in the toughest conference in the country," Sirmans said. "And this is not a slight on Vanderbilt, but it's not like they had Alabama's offensive line. He was still able to generate a lot of big yards."

Two other facets of Stacy's game also piqued the Rams' interest. In the pro-style system he played in at Vanderbilt, he developed as a strong pass blocker, an asset Jackson took with him to Atlanta. Stacy also showed the ability to catch screen passes out of the backfield. In his junior and senior seasons, he caught a total of 30 passes for an average of 10.4 yards per grab. Combine this — along with the successful interview and workout the Rams conducted with Stacy in Nashville leading up to the draft — and the team felt Stacy fit its needs.

"With losing Steven Jackson, you lose an element of having a pretty strong runner," Sirmans said. "Him having the ability to do that, to be a strong runner inside, being able to catch the ball out of the backfield — which he can do — and being able to pass protect. If he can blend all three of those things, that definitely puts him in a situation where he can be on the field to help us."

Rams coach Jeff Fisher has explained multiple times this offseason how his team's on-ground success will be a sum that is greater than its parts.

"We're not just going to have a one-man rotation thing where we give one guy the job, and let the others watch," he said. "They all have different skills, so we plan on using them differently."

For Stacy, this is good news. He adds something unique to the mix. It's why the Rams went fishing for the Vanderbilt running back, and why he has a chance to make an impact now.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I have a question for the pro Stacy posters. If the Rams didn't/don't see Richardson and/or Pead as the answer at RB, why did they wait until 5.27 to draft an RB? Why did they pass on Stacy at 5.16 when 10 rbs were already off the board. Why did NFL teams draft 12 rbs before Stacy?One of the main arguments I see from the pro Stacy posters is situation. The Rams actions in the draft suggest they don't agree with you (waiting until late 5th/passing on rb mid 5th). How do you explain that?I'm not saying Stacy doesn't have a chance, but if we are honest, the odds are low, but reading some of these posts would lead you to believe Stacy has a better than 50/50 chance. If I am wrong, please post what you think the odds are.

I'll try to explain where I'm at with Stacy and maybe this jives with some of his supporters and maybe not.

I don't view Stacy as a top shelf talent. I don't think he's going to be some kind of long term starter in the NFL. But, then again, very few are and, especially at RB, there's tons of turnover with moments that can be taken advantage of.

I think Stacy is a decent enough athlete based on his combine numbers and looked solid enough from what I've seen that I think he could be a very capable starter if given the chance. Which brings me to the St. Louis situation. I've said this in other threads but I don't view either Pead or Richardson as full-time starters. They are both simply too small (both under 200 lbs). So, unless they bulk up, I don't think either of those guys will be primary ball carriers. Not without elite speed, you just don't see RBs that small as feature backs. Now, it could be that StL goes with a full-on RBBC that doesn't lend itself to any relevant fantasy players on a consistent basis at RB. Or, it's possible that a guy like Stacy can do well enough to get a decent number of carries. He's not going to be a 300 carry RB, but it doesn't take that much to excite some owners.

When you look at St. Louis and Fisher, Pead went in the 2nd round last year and Richardson went in the 7th. But it was Richardson that saw most of the work behind SJax while Pead barely played. Fisher is going to play the guys that perform. And given what they have in Pead and Richardson (again, of the belief neither is big carry material at their size), the opportunity for Stacy to jump into the rotation and carve out a large role is there.

Look at guys in similar situations and what's happened to their values at times. Guys like Torain, Helu, Andre Brown, Ballard, Bryce Brown, Dwyer, Tate, Starks.....all marginal RBs (not top shelf talents) that had relative spikes in value when given a chance. I see Stacy cut from the same cloth and could provide some short production and possible value down the road. The problem becomes when you get married to a guy like that and hold longer than you should if his value far exceeds his true worth.

So yes, I actually believe he has decent odds (not 50/50, but not barely above zero either) to get the majority of the carries at some point in the near future. And if that happens, his value gets a nice spike above mid 2nd and someone is likely to pay for it.

I'm not sure I like those comps. Ben Tate was a 2nd round draft pick who was selected to be the heir apparent but got injured and lost his chance. Brown and Dwyer slipped due to character concerns more than talent concerns. I think there was solid reason to believe that all of those backs were more talented than Zac Stacy, but I do think the rest of the guys on your list are pretty solid comps.

I get what you're saying, though- player values fluctuate, and if Stacy looks good, his value can rise (even if it's all paper gains and Stacy is really a bum). The problem with paper gains is that you only reap them if you sell at the right time. Sometimes you think his value still has room to grow, you hold too long, and it drops out underneath you. Sometimes you buy into the hype, think he's actually pretty decent, and it drops out underneath you. If you don't sell at exactly the right time, then paper gains are not gains at all. Ask James Starks owners or Ryan Torain owners or Roy Helu owners just how much they actually wound up profiting off of those players. I'm willing to bet that most of them were off in their timing, and didn't really get all that much out of them.

I'm not a fan of trying to time the market- I think it's risky, and I prefer to build through more reliable and incremental gains. I agree with ZWK/EBF/etc that Stacy's current price doesn't leave much room for upside. I'm also far less willing to dismiss RBs under 200 pounds out of hand. Stacy's a guy who I'd love at the top of the 3rd, but I hate him at the top of the 2nd.

 

[LususV]

You do realize the Rams passed on Stacy at 5.16 to draft a special teams level DB...right? Seems a bit unlikely that a team that had a 3rd round grade on an rb would pass on him in the middle of the 5th for that...right?

I doubt the Rams view McGee's ceiling as special teams.

But:

5.18 (Cowboys): Joseph Randle

5.21 (Redskins): Chris Thompson

It's quite possible those two going in the 5th instigated the trade up to ensure the Rams got a 3rd RB they like.

 

[Biabreakable]

He's Tashard Choice. Serviceable talent. Probably nothing more.

I have him slotted in roughly the 25-30 range of my rookie board. He usually goes 10-15 spots higher than that.

Needless to say he didn't find his way onto any of my rosters.

I think that is a lot closer than Pinner anyways. http://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?f=Tashard&l=Choice&i=7898

That's fine, but for the record, the point I was driving at with Pinner is he was being crowned the starter immediately because of the lack of better talent in Detroit. In the couple of rookie drafts I did in 2003, he went in the first round. I wasn't saying Stacy and Pinner are the exact same RB. Very similar measuarbles in height:weight and speed though.

Stacy could absolutely pan out and be the starter for years to come. I just think the odds are more likely that he doesn't based on history.

Well Pinner was drafted by Matt Millen. This is about the only GM who may have been worse than Al Davis.

The Lions were a bad team. A bad team loses a lot and fall behind in the score. Then they cannot run and the other team can. The team was drafting WR in the 1st round over and over until they finally got Calvin. The team never looked like a good spot for a RB to me at that time, but then again I am a Vikings fan. I had the pleasure of seeing how much Pinner sucked 1st hand when he left the Lions for the Vikings. Which shows how unprepared the Vikings were for Robert Smith retiring. To be fair Mike Tice might not be as smart as Matt Millen.

 

[gianmarco]

. I'm also far less willing to dismiss RBs under 200 pounds out of hand.

If you can find me some sub 200 lb rbs with significant carries in a season, I'd love to see the list. You can exclude sub 4.4 guys (i.e. Charles or CJ3) because that's part of the problem with these two guys. Unless you have elite speed (<4.4 time), then that weight isn't going to cut it and the list of guys in that category with over 200 carries is awfully short the last I looked.

 

[ZWK]

I think that's a pretty solid take. He has a chance to be something like Vick Ballard.

My issue with the idea of flipping him when his value pops is that he's already pretty expensive. Ballard last year was a 3rd-4th round rookie pick. You could've flipped him for a 2nd and done well for yourself. There's less upside with Stacy because he's already being taken top 15 in a lot of leagues. How much higher can he reasonably go? Top 5? He'll need a very promising rookie year to pull that kind of value.

I'd rather sit back and snipe Stepfan Taylor in the late 3rd/early 4th. Arguably a better talent than Stacy. Sneaky good opportunity with Mendy on a one year deal.

Taylor vs. Stacy is a good comparison, at least from the outside. They were both very productive college backs who have NFL size and got drafted in the 5th round by bad teams with unsettled RB situations. I'm surprised by how far apart their fantasy value is.

If they did have similar ADPs, I would be a lot more excited about Stacy than Taylor, since that is where my analysis (of college stats, combine numbers, video, etc.) has consistently pointed. But, with Stacy almost always off the board by the mid 2nd and Taylor often sticking around into the 4th, I can see scenarios where I end up drafting Taylor and I have essentially no shot of ending up with Stacy. Not at all what I expected back in February, when I was getting called out for panning Taylor.

 

[Lash]

I drafted stacy in one of nine drafts so far at 2.04 and it was for three reasons: i had another stl piece of rbbc and michael was gone and i couldnt trade out

The second rd imo is what you want to trade out of ... The third and fourth rd picks have just as much promise ...

I honestly dont know why he fell to fifth rd though so i can see a late second rd grade on him this year

And put me in the camp of giving more weight to opportunity when discussing rb's ... Much moreso than wr/qb/te who have to be talented to succeed ... A RB can be average and help your fantasy team for a couple years while you (and his NFL team) are finding a more talented replacement ...Only comparison to me would be an average WR that got drafted in a great offense with a great qb as they can have short term success too if opportunity there

As for the da'rick rogers comps, he is not a udfa talent, so i dont blame anyone taking the risk reward in this empty second rd. he is a very good talent but is a severe head case. Think mike williams case study as far as talent dropping because of off field concerns, yet far worse ( he likes pot, i mean REALLY likes it to the point of partying hard after a ROAD game this year) ... But if he hits his physical talent exceeds woods IMO

 

[EBF]

I think that's a pretty solid take. He has a chance to be something like Vick Ballard.

My issue with the idea of flipping him when his value pops is that he's already pretty expensive. Ballard last year was a 3rd-4th round rookie pick. You could've flipped him for a 2nd and done well for yourself. There's less upside with Stacy because he's already being taken top 15 in a lot of leagues. How much higher can he reasonably go? Top 5? He'll need a very promising rookie year to pull that kind of value.

I'd rather sit back and snipe Stepfan Taylor in the late 3rd/early 4th. Arguably a better talent than Stacy. Sneaky good opportunity with Mendy on a one year deal.

Taylor vs. Stacy is a good comparison, at least from the outside. They were both very productive college backs who have NFL size and got drafted in the 5th round by bad teams with unsettled RB situations. I'm surprised by how far apart their fantasy value is.

If they did have similar ADPs, I would be a lot more excited about Stacy than Taylor, since that is where my analysis (of college stats, combine numbers, video, etc.) has consistently pointed. But, with Stacy almost always off the board by the mid 2nd and Taylor often sticking around into the 4th, I can see scenarios where I end up drafting Taylor and I have essentially no shot of ending up with Stacy. Not at all what I expected back in February, when I was getting called out for panning Taylor.

Taylor is falling because of the 40 time and the glut of other backs on Arizona's roster.

It will be interesting to see how he fares in the NFL. Apart from the bad workout numbers, he has a lot of the qualities that I like in a RB prospect. He wasn't a high pick, but he was a high pick for a RB with 4.7 speed and pitiful numbers in the drills. It tells you that the scouts must have liked his film to keep a moderately high grade on him despite the fact that he bombed his workouts. I was able to get him in the 4th round of several 12 team rookie drafts. A very modest price tag to take a punt on a guy who was picked within 15 slots of Johnathan Franklin and Marcus Lattimore and ahead of Latavius Murray, Joseph Randle, Zac Stacy, Mike Gillislee, and Andre Ellington (who all probably have a higher rookie draft ADP).

 

[Sabertooth]

I think that's a pretty solid take. He has a chance to be something like Vick Ballard.

My issue with the idea of flipping him when his value pops is that he's already pretty expensive. Ballard last year was a 3rd-4th round rookie pick. You could've flipped him for a 2nd and done well for yourself. There's less upside with Stacy because he's already being taken top 15 in a lot of leagues. How much higher can he reasonably go? Top 5? He'll need a very promising rookie year to pull that kind of value.

I'd rather sit back and snipe Stepfan Taylor in the late 3rd/early 4th. Arguably a better talent than Stacy. Sneaky good opportunity with Mendy on a one year deal.

Taylor vs. Stacy is a good comparison, at least from the outside. They were both very productive college backs who have NFL size and got drafted in the 5th round by bad teams with unsettled RB situations. I'm surprised by how far apart their fantasy value is.

If they did have similar ADPs, I would be a lot more excited about Stacy than Taylor, since that is where my analysis (of college stats, combine numbers, video, etc.) has consistently pointed. But, with Stacy almost always off the board by the mid 2nd and Taylor often sticking around into the 4th, I can see scenarios where I end up drafting Taylor and I have essentially no shot of ending up with Stacy. Not at all what I expected back in February, when I was getting called out for panning Taylor.

Taylor is falling because of the 40 time and the glut of other backs on Arizona's roster.

It will be interesting to see how he fares in the NFL. Apart from the bad workout numbers, he has a lot of the qualities that I like in a RB prospect. He wasn't a high pick, but he was a high pick for a RB with 4.7 speed and pitiful numbers in the drills. It tells you that the scouts must have liked his film to keep a moderately high grade on him despite the fact that he bombed his workouts. I was able to get him in the 4th round of several 12 team rookie drafts. A very modest price tag to take a punt on a guy who was picked within 15 slots of Johnathan Franklin and Marcus Lattimore and ahead of Latavius Murray, Joseph Randle, Zac Stacy, Mike Gillislee, and Andre Ellington (who all probably have a higher rookie draft ADP).

Glut of other backs? The Arizona backfield reminds me of the saying used on QBs. "When you have 3, you have none." I think Arizona backfield is ripe for a real player to emerge. Mendenhall is the only one who has done anything (lost the Super Bowl for the Stillers being one of the many things he's done). But I don't really see that as any better than the Washington backfield a year ago. Truly a bunch of justaguys.

 

[cstu]

I think that's a pretty solid take. He has a chance to be something like Vick Ballard.

My issue with the idea of flipping him when his value pops is that he's already pretty expensive. Ballard last year was a 3rd-4th round rookie pick. You could've flipped him for a 2nd and done well for yourself. There's less upside with Stacy because he's already being taken top 15 in a lot of leagues. How much higher can he reasonably go? Top 5? He'll need a very promising rookie year to pull that kind of value.

I'd rather sit back and snipe Stepfan Taylor in the late 3rd/early 4th. Arguably a better talent than Stacy. Sneaky good opportunity with Mendy on a one year deal.

Taylor vs. Stacy is a good comparison, at least from the outside. They were both very productive college backs who have NFL size and got drafted in the 5th round by bad teams with unsettled RB situations. I'm surprised by how far apart their fantasy value is.

If they did have similar ADPs, I would be a lot more excited about Stacy than Taylor, since that is where my analysis (of college stats, combine numbers, video, etc.) has consistently pointed. But, with Stacy almost always off the board by the mid 2nd and Taylor often sticking around into the 4th, I can see scenarios where I end up drafting Taylor and I have essentially no shot of ending up with Stacy. Not at all what I expected back in February, when I was getting called out for panning Taylor.

Taylor is falling because of the 40 time and the glut of other backs on Arizona's roster.

It will be interesting to see how he fares in the NFL. Apart from the bad workout numbers, he has a lot of the qualities that I like in a RB prospect. He wasn't a high pick, but he was a high pick for a RB with 4.7 speed and pitiful numbers in the drills. It tells you that the scouts must have liked his film to keep a moderately high grade on him despite the fact that he bombed his workouts. I was able to get him in the 4th round of several 12 team rookie drafts. A very modest price tag to take a punt on a guy who was picked within 15 slots of Johnathan Franklin and Marcus Lattimore and ahead of Latavius Murray, Joseph Randle, Zac Stacy, Mike Gillislee, and Andre Ellington (who all probably have a higher rookie draft ADP).

I'm with you on this. For all the hype on Stacy, a team with a need at RB passed on him for Taylor.

 

[Sabertooth]

I think that's a pretty solid take. He has a chance to be something like Vick Ballard.

My issue with the idea of flipping him when his value pops is that he's already pretty expensive. Ballard last year was a 3rd-4th round rookie pick. You could've flipped him for a 2nd and done well for yourself. There's less upside with Stacy because he's already being taken top 15 in a lot of leagues. How much higher can he reasonably go? Top 5? He'll need a very promising rookie year to pull that kind of value.

I'd rather sit back and snipe Stepfan Taylor in the late 3rd/early 4th. Arguably a better talent than Stacy. Sneaky good opportunity with Mendy on a one year deal.

Taylor vs. Stacy is a good comparison, at least from the outside. They were both very productive college backs who have NFL size and got drafted in the 5th round by bad teams with unsettled RB situations. I'm surprised by how far apart their fantasy value is.

If they did have similar ADPs, I would be a lot more excited about Stacy than Taylor, since that is where my analysis (of college stats, combine numbers, video, etc.) has consistently pointed. But, with Stacy almost always off the board by the mid 2nd and Taylor often sticking around into the 4th, I can see scenarios where I end up drafting Taylor and I have essentially no shot of ending up with Stacy. Not at all what I expected back in February, when I was getting called out for panning Taylor.

Taylor is falling because of the 40 time and the glut of other backs on Arizona's roster.

It will be interesting to see how he fares in the NFL. Apart from the bad workout numbers, he has a lot of the qualities that I like in a RB prospect. He wasn't a high pick, but he was a high pick for a RB with 4.7 speed and pitiful numbers in the drills. It tells you that the scouts must have liked his film to keep a moderately high grade on him despite the fact that he bombed his workouts. I was able to get him in the 4th round of several 12 team rookie drafts. A very modest price tag to take a punt on a guy who was picked within 15 slots of Johnathan Franklin and Marcus Lattimore and ahead of Latavius Murray, Joseph Randle, Zac Stacy, Mike Gillislee, and Andre Ellington (who all probably have a higher rookie draft ADP).

I'm with you on this. For all the hype on Stacy, a team with a need at RB passed on him for Taylor.

5 times.

 

[Adam Harstad]

. I'm also far less willing to dismiss RBs under 200 pounds out of hand.

If you can find me some sub 200 lb rbs with significant carries in a season, I'd love to see the list. You can exclude sub 4.4 guys (i.e. Charles or CJ3) because that's part of the problem with these two guys. Unless you have elite speed (<4.4 time), then that weight isn't going to cut it and the list of guys in that category with over 200 carries is awfully short the last I looked.

Warrick Dunn has the 17th most career rushing attempts in history (nearly 300 more than Steven Jackson to date) despite essentially being the size of Santana Moss. Clinton Portis weighed somewhere between 180 and 190 pounds by the end of his rookie season, before a couple of offseason conditioning programs helped him build some more sustainable bulk. Brian Westbrook ran a 4.57 at the combine. Say what you want about Tatum Bell (his issues were far more talent than bulk), but he topped your 200-carry threshold with room to spare despite playing just 13 games in 2006. And you've already hit upon Charles and Johnson, even if you've just as quickly dismissed them again. I don't know why we're excluding sub-4.4 guys when discussing Pead, when Pead ran a 4.39.

I think the Clinton Portis example is illustrative. The body a player enters the league with is not the same body that player has after two years in the league. I also think that, while it's rare to see a sub-200 pound back get a huge workload, it's also pretty rare to see a sub-200 pound back get drafted in the 2nd round. I'm sure wdcrob could give us a complete list of the undersized guys who have been taken in the first three rounds over the last decade. I'm willing to wager that the success rate of those guys is no lower than the success rate of their more prototypically sized peers. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the success rate actually wound up being higher, since they got drafted high despite such an obvious shortcoming.

 

[gianmarco]

. I'm also far less willing to dismiss RBs under 200 pounds out of hand.

If you can find me some sub 200 lb rbs with significant carries in a season, I'd love to see the list. You can exclude sub 4.4 guys (i.e. Charles or CJ3) because that's part of the problem with these two guys. Unless you have elite speed (<4.4 time), then that weight isn't going to cut it and the list of guys in that category with over 200 carries is awfully short the last I looked.

Warrick Dunn has the 17th most career rushing attempts in history (nearly 300 more than Steven Jackson to date) despite essentially being the size of Santana Moss. Clinton Portis weighed somewhere between 180 and 190 pounds by the end of his rookie season, before a couple of offseason conditioning programs helped him build some more sustainable bulk. Brian Westbrook ran a 4.57 at the combine. Say what you want about Tatum Bell (his issues were far more talent than bulk), but he topped your 200-carry threshold with room to spare despite playing just 13 games in 2006. And you've already hit upon Charles and Johnson, even if you've just as quickly dismissed them again. I don't know why we're excluding sub-4.4 guys when discussing Pead, when Pead ran a 4.39.

I think the Clinton Portis example is illustrative. The body a player enters the league with is not the same body that player has after two years in the league. I also think that, while it's rare to see a sub-200 pound back get a huge workload, it's also pretty rare to see a sub-200 pound back get drafted in the 2nd round. I'm sure wdcrob could give us a complete list of the undersized guys who have been taken in the first three rounds over the last decade. I'm willing to wager that the success rate of those guys is no lower than the success rate of their more prototypically sized peers. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the success rate actually wound up being higher, since they got drafted high despite such an obvious shortcoming.

Clinton Portis came in over 200 lbs

Brian Westbrook came in at 200 lbs

Tatum Bell came in at 212 lbs

And Pead ran a 4.47

While I can't find anything official, it seems Dunn's 40 time was sub 4.3

So, I'm not sure where you're getting all your information from, but the handful of names you just provided were pretty much incorrect and support what I was saying.

I'm excluding the sub 4.4 guys because that's exactly my point. If you're going to be under 200 lbs and be the main ball carrier, you better be elite somewhere else (speed). J. Charles and Chris Johnson have elite speed. I'm not dismissing them at all. I like both guys a ton. But the reason why they are successful at such a small weight is their ridiculous jets. Pead and Richardson do not have those (both ran a 4.47 which is not anything near elite for their size).

If either of those guys add some weight, then I'll change my position on them. As of right now, going into their 2nd year, they are both still listed in the 190's. If you can actually provide me a list of RBs under 200 lbs without elite speed (and sub 4.4 isn't even THAT elite), I'm willing to listen. But, even if you're able to find a couple names, the odds are EXTREMELY stacked against them unless they add some weight.

ETA--And it's also not as if these guys are shorter and carry their weight better. They are actually both 5'10" and just aren't built very big. They are built like speed backs but lack the actual speed. At least if they were 5'7" or 5'8" and that weight, I might be a bit more sold on why they should be an exception.

 

[LususV]

. I'm also far less willing to dismiss RBs under 200 pounds out of hand.

If you can find me some sub 200 lb rbs with significant carries in a season, I'd love to see the list. You can exclude sub 4.4 guys (i.e. Charles or CJ3) because that's part of the problem with these two guys. Unless you have elite speed (<4.4 time), then that weight isn't going to cut it and the list of guys in that category with over 200 carries is awfully short the last I looked.

Warrick Dunn has the 17th most career rushing attempts in history (nearly 300 more than Steven Jackson to date) despite essentially being the size of Santana Moss. Clinton Portis weighed somewhere between 180 and 190 pounds by the end of his rookie season, before a couple of offseason conditioning programs helped him build some more sustainable bulk. Brian Westbrook ran a 4.57 at the combine. Say what you want about Tatum Bell (his issues were far more talent than bulk), but he topped your 200-carry threshold with room to spare despite playing just 13 games in 2006. And you've already hit upon Charles and Johnson, even if you've just as quickly dismissed them again. I don't know why we're excluding sub-4.4 guys when discussing Pead, when Pead ran a 4.39.

I think the Clinton Portis example is illustrative. The body a player enters the league with is not the same body that player has after two years in the league. I also think that, while it's rare to see a sub-200 pound back get a huge workload, it's also pretty rare to see a sub-200 pound back get drafted in the 2nd round. I'm sure wdcrob could give us a complete list of the undersized guys who have been taken in the first three rounds over the last decade. I'm willing to wager that the success rate of those guys is no lower than the success rate of their more prototypically sized peers. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the success rate actually wound up being higher, since they got drafted high despite such an obvious shortcoming.

Clinton Portis came in over 200 lbs

Brian Westbrook came in at 200 lbs

Tatum Bell came in at 212 lbs

And Pead ran a 4.47

While I can't find anything official, it seems Dunn's 40 time was sub 4.3

So, I'm not sure where you're getting all your information from, but the handful of names you just provided were pretty much incorrect and support what I was saying.

I'm excluding the sub 4.4 guys because that's exactly my point. If you're going to be under 200 lbs and be the main ball carrier, you better be elite somewhere else (speed). J. Charles and Chris Johnson have elite speed. I'm not dismissing them at all. I like both guys a ton. But the reason why they are successful at such a small weight is their ridiculous jets. Pead and Richardson do not have those (both ran a 4.47 which is not anything near elite for their size).

If either of those guys add some weight, then I'll change my position on them. As of right now, going into their 2nd year, they are both still listed in the 190's. If you can actually provide me a list of RBs under 200 lbs without elite speed (and sub 4.4 isn't even THAT elite), I'm willing to listen. But, even if you're able to find a couple names, the odds are EXTREMELY stacked against them unless they add some weight.

ETA--And it's also not as if these guys are shorter and carry their weight better. They are actually both 5'10" and just aren't built very big. They are built like speed backs but lack the actual speed. At least if they were 5'7" or 5'8" and that weight, I might be a bit more sold on why they should be an exception.

From 1999+, the list of RBs <200 lbs with 4.4+ 40 times taken in rounds 1 and 2:

Trung Canidate

Ray Rice

Re: Canidate:

"The Rams timed Canidate at 4.25 seconds in the 40-yard dash, more than .15 faster than his combine time. At the combine Canidate did not complete his workout due to an ankle sprain."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trung_Canidate

Rice was 199 lbs and 4.42 40.

 

[Sabertooth]

Now way Ricky Williams was under 200lbs. He was 220 easy.

 

[gianmarco]

. I'm also far less willing to dismiss RBs under 200 pounds out of hand.

If you can find me some sub 200 lb rbs with significant carries in a season, I'd love to see the list. You can exclude sub 4.4 guys (i.e. Charles or CJ3) because that's part of the problem with these two guys. Unless you have elite speed (<4.4 time), then that weight isn't going to cut it and the list of guys in that category with over 200 carries is awfully short the last I looked.

Warrick Dunn has the 17th most career rushing attempts in history (nearly 300 more than Steven Jackson to date) despite essentially being the size of Santana Moss. Clinton Portis weighed somewhere between 180 and 190 pounds by the end of his rookie season, before a couple of offseason conditioning programs helped him build some more sustainable bulk. Brian Westbrook ran a 4.57 at the combine. Say what you want about Tatum Bell (his issues were far more talent than bulk), but he topped your 200-carry threshold with room to spare despite playing just 13 games in 2006. And you've already hit upon Charles and Johnson, even if you've just as quickly dismissed them again. I don't know why we're excluding sub-4.4 guys when discussing Pead, when Pead ran a 4.39.

I think the Clinton Portis example is illustrative. The body a player enters the league with is not the same body that player has after two years in the league. I also think that, while it's rare to see a sub-200 pound back get a huge workload, it's also pretty rare to see a sub-200 pound back get drafted in the 2nd round. I'm sure wdcrob could give us a complete list of the undersized guys who have been taken in the first three rounds over the last decade. I'm willing to wager that the success rate of those guys is no lower than the success rate of their more prototypically sized peers. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the success rate actually wound up being higher, since they got drafted high despite such an obvious shortcoming.

Clinton Portis came in over 200 lbs

Brian Westbrook came in at 200 lbs

Tatum Bell came in at 212 lbs

And Pead ran a 4.47

While I can't find anything official, it seems Dunn's 40 time was sub 4.3

So, I'm not sure where you're getting all your information from, but the handful of names you just provided were pretty much incorrect and support what I was saying.

I'm excluding the sub 4.4 guys because that's exactly my point. If you're going to be under 200 lbs and be the main ball carrier, you better be elite somewhere else (speed). J. Charles and Chris Johnson have elite speed. I'm not dismissing them at all. I like both guys a ton. But the reason why they are successful at such a small weight is their ridiculous jets. Pead and Richardson do not have those (both ran a 4.47 which is not anything near elite for their size).

If either of those guys add some weight, then I'll change my position on them. As of right now, going into their 2nd year, they are both still listed in the 190's. If you can actually provide me a list of RBs under 200 lbs without elite speed (and sub 4.4 isn't even THAT elite), I'm willing to listen. But, even if you're able to find a couple names, the odds are EXTREMELY stacked against them unless they add some weight.

ETA--And it's also not as if these guys are shorter and carry their weight better. They are actually both 5'10" and just aren't built very big. They are built like speed backs but lack the actual speed. At least if they were 5'7" or 5'8" and that weight, I might be a bit more sold on why they should be an exception.

From 1999+, the list of RBs <200 lbs with 4.4+ 40 times taken in rounds 1 and 2:

Trung Canidate

Ricky Williams

Ray Rice

Re: Canidate:

"The Rams timed Canidate at 4.25 seconds in the 40-yard dash, more than .15 faster than his combine time. At the combine Canidate did not complete his workout due to an ankle sprain."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trung_Canidate

Ricky was 190 lbs and 4.47 40, and Rice was 199 lbs and 4.42 40. Both also had pretty damn nice college careers.

No need to limit it to rounds 1 or 2. Just find any RB who fits that criteria and had 200+ carries. The Ricky Williams above had 59 career carries.

As for Rice, he came in at 199 but quickly got his weight up and has been listed at 212 for quite a while.

 

[LususV]

Now way Ricky Williams was under 200lbs. He was 220 easy.

That's what happens when you do a quick VLOOKUP without double-checking your data source. That weight/time was from Ricky Williams/Texas Tech. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ricky_Williams_(American_football,_born_1978)

My bad, heh.

 

[gianmarco]

Now way Ricky Williams was under 200lbs. He was 220 easy.

Different Ricky Williams. He was from Texas Tech and I don't think he was drafted in the first 2 rounds either.

 

[LususV]

Full list of 1999+ RBs with <200 lbs and >4.40 40 times with 200+ carries:

Trung Canidate - 1st round

Travis Minor - 3rd round

Darren Sproles - 4th round

Ahmad Bradshaw - 7th round

Steve Slaton - 3rd round

Ray Rice - 2nd round

I don't yet have UDFAs in my database, if anyone has someone else to add. I plan on merging full NFL info with college stats eventually.

All but Canidate and Sproles came in at 197-199, and all but Bradshaw had sub-4.5 times.

 

[gianmarco]

Full list of 1999+ RBs with <200 lbs and >4.40 40 times with 200+ carries:

Trung Canidate - 1st round

Travis Minor - 3rd round

Darren Sproles - 4th round

Ahmad Bradshaw - 7th round

Steve Slaton - 3rd round

Ray Rice - 2nd round

I don't yet have UDFAs in my database, if anyone has someone else to add.

All but Canidate and Sproles came in at 197-199, and all but Bradshaw had sub-4.5 times.

Sproles has never had 200 carries in a season. In fact, he's never topped 100.

Minor topped out at 109 carries in a season.

Slaton came in at 197 but is currently listed at 208 and if I remember correctly bulked up to 215 after his first year. However, he does fit the profile.

Canidate topped out at 143 carries (and had gotten to 205 at that point)

Bradshaw came in at 197 but has easily been at 215 for a while and certainly since 2010 when he got over 200 carries

See above for Rice.

So far, Slaton is the only guy that fits the profile and he did it for one year.

There's a reason all these guys added weight (or tried to). Pead and Richardson need to do the same. The thing is, those types of things are usually reported and so far I haven't seen anything about them trying to do so. If either can get over 200 (ideally at least 205), then I'll change my tune on them. Until then, I think there's almost a zero chance that either of them gets any kind of significant load.

 

[LususV]

Full list of 1999+ RBs with <200 lbs and >4.40 40 times with 200+ carries:

Trung Canidate - 1st round

Travis Minor - 3rd round

Darren Sproles - 4th round

Ahmad Bradshaw - 7th round

Steve Slaton - 3rd round

Ray Rice - 2nd round

I don't yet have UDFAs in my database, if anyone has someone else to add.

All but Canidate and Sproles came in at 197-199, and all but Bradshaw had sub-4.5 times.

Sproles has never had 200 carries in a season. In fact, he's never topped 100.

Minor topped out at 109 carries in a season.

Slaton came in at 197 but is currently listed at 208 and if I remember correctly bulked up to 215 after his first year. However, he does fit the profile.

Canidate topped out at 143 carries (and had gotten to 205 at that point)

Bradshaw came in at 197 but has easily been at 215 for a while and certainly since 2010 when he got over 200 carries

See above for Rice.

So far, Slaton is the only guy that fits the profile and he did it for one year.

There's a reason all these guys added weight (or tried to). Pead and Richardson need to do the same. The thing is, those types of things are usually reported and so far I haven't seen anything about them trying to do so. If either can get over 200 (ideally at least 205), then I'll change my tune on them. Until then, I think there's almost a zero chance that either of them gets any kind of significant load.

I was looking at career carries, not annual. But good writeup of each of these backs. You definitely need either strength or elite speed to succeed as a feature back.

Sproles is a weird case due to his receptions. He's not your typical RB.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Full list of 1999+ RBs with <200 lbs and >4.40 40 times with 200+ carries:

Trung Canidate - 1st round

Travis Minor - 3rd round

Darren Sproles - 4th round

Ahmad Bradshaw - 7th round

Steve Slaton - 3rd round

Ray Rice - 2nd round

I don't yet have UDFAs in my database, if anyone has someone else to add. I plan on merging full NFL info with college stats eventually.

All but Canidate and Sproles came in at 197-199, and all but Bradshaw had sub-4.5 times.

Why wouldn't LeSaun McCoy fit this bill to a T? Came in slow at 198. At least a the combine.

I agree with the general point that you need to either be powerful or fast (or both) to be really effective in the NFL, but McCoy seems like a pretty good counter example to me.

 

[moderated]

Full list of 1999+ RBs with <200 lbs and >4.40 40 times with 200+ carries:

Trung Canidate - 1st round

Travis Minor - 3rd round

Darren Sproles - 4th round

Ahmad Bradshaw - 7th round

Steve Slaton - 3rd round

Ray Rice - 2nd round

I don't yet have UDFAs in my database, if anyone has someone else to add.

All but Canidate and Sproles came in at 197-199, and all but Bradshaw had sub-4.5 times.

There's a reason all these guys added weight (or tried to). Pead and Richardson need to do the same. The thing is, those types of things are usually reported and so far I haven't seen anything about them trying to do so. If either can get over 200 (ideally at least 205), then I'll change my tune on them. Until then, I think there's almost a zero chance that either of them gets any kind of significant load.

So if you think there is a zero chance Pead or Richardson gets a significant load you're basically implying that Stacy (the 5th round wonder) has a 90%+ chance to be the primary ball carrier in St Louis?

If St Louis had zero faith in Pead or Richardson to be involved significantly there is no way they would wait until the 5th round to take a RB.

 

[gianmarco]

. I also think that, while it's rare to see a sub-200 pound back get a huge workload, it's also pretty rare to see a sub-200 pound back get drafted in the 2nd round. I'm sure wdcrob could give us a complete list of the undersized guys who have been taken in the first three rounds over the last decade.

I just went and looked at draft history over the last few years:

L. James 2nd round 2012

I. Pead 2nd round 2012

Hillman 3rd round 2012J. Best 1st round 2010Spiller 1st round 2010Chris Johnson 1st round 2008Charles 3rd round 2008Slaton 3rd round 2008Kenny Irons 2nd round 2007

Those guys were all 200lbs or less coming in. That list is comprised of elite speed guys (Spiller, Charles, Johnson, Best), COP guys (Hillman and James), or guys with major injuries (Best, Slaton, Irons).

At least James ran a 4.35 so there's some hope for him yet. Hillman at 4.45 and 185 has no shot whatsoever (and never did, IMO).

So it's not that NFL teams won't take RBs under 200 lbs in the first 3 rounds. They certainly do. But, they do so only because they have elite speed or they view them as role players.

 

[gianmarco]

Full list of 1999+ RBs with <200 lbs and >4.40 40 times with 200+ carries:

Trung Canidate - 1st round

Travis Minor - 3rd round

Darren Sproles - 4th round

Ahmad Bradshaw - 7th round

Steve Slaton - 3rd round

Ray Rice - 2nd round

I don't yet have UDFAs in my database, if anyone has someone else to add. I plan on merging full NFL info with college stats eventually.

All but Canidate and Sproles came in at 197-199, and all but Bradshaw had sub-4.5 times.

Why wouldn't LeSaun McCoy fit this bill to a T? Came in slow at 198. At least a the combine.

I agree with the general point that you need to either be powerful or fast (or both) to be really effective in the NFL, but McCoy seems like a pretty good counter example to me.

McCoy is up to 208 and has been since his 2nd year. In fact, in 2011, he added even more weight but then got back down to his 2010 weight of 208.

As you see, there's a common theme here. There are plenty of guys that come in under 200 lbs. Some get their weight up, some don't. All of the guys that get a decent load ended up getting up over 200 lbs (and often times over 205).

Pead and Richardson are still listed at under 200 lbs going into their second year.

 

[gandalas]

Full list of 1999+ RBs with <200 lbs and >4.40 40 times with 200+ carries:

Trung Canidate - 1st round

Travis Minor - 3rd round

Darren Sproles - 4th round

Ahmad Bradshaw - 7th round

Steve Slaton - 3rd round

Ray Rice - 2nd round

I don't yet have UDFAs in my database, if anyone has someone else to add.

All but Canidate and Sproles came in at 197-199, and all but Bradshaw had sub-4.5 times.

Sproles has never had 200 carries in a season. In fact, he's never topped 100.

Minor topped out at 109 carries in a season.

Slaton came in at 197 but is currently listed at 208 and if I remember correctly bulked up to 215 after his first year. However, he does fit the profile.

Canidate topped out at 143 carries (and had gotten to 205 at that point)

Bradshaw came in at 197 but has easily been at 215 for a while and certainly since 2010 when he got over 200 carries

See above for Rice.

So far, Slaton is the only guy that fits the profile and he did it for one year.

There's a reason all these guys added weight (or tried to). Pead and Richardson need to do the same. The thing is, those types of things are usually reported and so far I haven't seen anything about them trying to do so. If either can get over 200 (ideally at least 205), then I'll change my tune on them. Until then, I think there's almost a zero chance that either of them gets any kind of significant load.

I was looking at career carries, not annual. But good writeup of each of these backs. You definitely need either strength or elite speed to succeed as a feature back.

Sproles is a weird case due to his receptions. He's not your typical RB.

Sproles is also 5'6". 190lbs for him is not the same as 190lbs for a 5'10" back.

 

[gianmarco]

Full list of 1999+ RBs with <200 lbs and >4.40 40 times with 200+ carries:

Trung Canidate - 1st round

Travis Minor - 3rd round

Darren Sproles - 4th round

Ahmad Bradshaw - 7th round

Steve Slaton - 3rd round

Ray Rice - 2nd round

I don't yet have UDFAs in my database, if anyone has someone else to add.

All but Canidate and Sproles came in at 197-199, and all but Bradshaw had sub-4.5 times.

There's a reason all these guys added weight (or tried to). Pead and Richardson need to do the same. The thing is, those types of things are usually reported and so far I haven't seen anything about them trying to do so. If either can get over 200 (ideally at least 205), then I'll change my tune on them. Until then, I think there's almost a zero chance that either of them gets any kind of significant load.

So if you think there is a zero chance Pead or Richardson gets a significant load you're basically implying that Stacy (the 5th round wonder) has a 90%+ chance to be the primary ball carrier in St Louis?

If St Louis had zero faith in Pead or Richardson to be involved significantly there is no way they would wait until the 5th round to take a RB.

No, I'm not implying that. If you read up where I first posted, I think it's quite possible that this situation doesn't yield ANY fantasy relevant guys on a consistent basis. I could see it at a minimum being a 2 guy RBBC and very possibly getting all 3 guys involved.

But, this is also why I think it's very possible for Stacy to get a significant number of carries this year despite being a rookie and a 5th round pick. IF there is going to be a guy that hits 200, it's going to be him, not Pead or Richardson. I'll change my tune when reports come out that either gained weight or the listing is changed.

 

[LususV]

Full list of 1999+ RBs with <200 lbs and >4.40 40 times with 200+ carries:

Trung Canidate - 1st round

Travis Minor - 3rd round

Darren Sproles - 4th round

Ahmad Bradshaw - 7th round

Steve Slaton - 3rd round

Ray Rice - 2nd round

I don't yet have UDFAs in my database, if anyone has someone else to add. I plan on merging full NFL info with college stats eventually.

All but Canidate and Sproles came in at 197-199, and all but Bradshaw had sub-4.5 times.

Why wouldn't LeSaun McCoy fit this bill to a T? Came in slow at 198. At least a the combine.

I agree with the general point that you need to either be powerful or fast (or both) to be really effective in the NFL, but McCoy seems like a pretty good counter example to me.

McCoy didn't run the 40 at the Combine. His 4.50 40 time was at his Pro Day.

Definitely worth incorporating Pro Day measurements. Adding that to my list.

 

[LususV]

Full list of 1999+ RBs with <200 lbs and >4.40 40 times with 200+ carries:

Trung Canidate - 1st round

Travis Minor - 3rd round

Darren Sproles - 4th round

Ahmad Bradshaw - 7th round

Steve Slaton - 3rd round

Ray Rice - 2nd round

I don't yet have UDFAs in my database, if anyone has someone else to add.

All but Canidate and Sproles came in at 197-199, and all but Bradshaw had sub-4.5 times.

There's a reason all these guys added weight (or tried to). Pead and Richardson need to do the same. The thing is, those types of things are usually reported and so far I haven't seen anything about them trying to do so. If either can get over 200 (ideally at least 205), then I'll change my tune on them. Until then, I think there's almost a zero chance that either of them gets any kind of significant load.

So if you think there is a zero chance Pead or Richardson gets a significant load you're basically implying that Stacy (the 5th round wonder) has a 90%+ chance to be the primary ball carrier in St Louis?

If St Louis had zero faith in Pead or Richardson to be involved significantly there is no way they would wait until the 5th round to take a RB.

Your logical failure, exhibited consistently in this thread, is that we are claiming what St. Louis believes about Pead and Richardson.

They won't succeed. St. Louis may think they'll succeed. But they won't.

I like Stacy because I believe he will get an opportunity eventually, when it's clear option 1 and option 2 aren't working.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Clinton Portis came in over 200 lbs

Brian Westbrook came in at 200 lbs

Tatum Bell came in at 212 lbs

And Pead ran a 4.47

While I can't find anything official, it seems Dunn's 40 time was sub 4.3

So, I'm not sure where you're getting all your information from, but the handful of names you just provided were pretty much incorrect and support what I was saying.

I'm excluding the sub 4.4 guys because that's exactly my point. If you're going to be under 200 lbs and be the main ball carrier, you better be elite somewhere else (speed). J. Charles and Chris Johnson have elite speed. I'm not dismissing them at all. I like both guys a ton. But the reason why they are successful at such a small weight is their ridiculous jets. Pead and Richardson do not have those (both ran a 4.47 which is not anything near elite for their size).

If either of those guys add some weight, then I'll change my position on them. As of right now, going into their 2nd year, they are both still listed in the 190's. If you can actually provide me a list of RBs under 200 lbs without elite speed (and sub 4.4 isn't even THAT elite), I'm willing to listen. But, even if you're able to find a couple names, the odds are EXTREMELY stacked against them unless they add some weight.

ETA--And it's also not as if these guys are shorter and carry their weight better. They are actually both 5'10" and just aren't built very big. They are built like speed backs but lack the actual speed. At least if they were 5'7" or 5'8" and that weight, I might be a bit more sold on why they should be an exception.

Portis came in over 200, but he lost a lot of weight his rookie year. Tatum Bell came in at 212, but played as low as 190- you can't discount Ray Rice for coming in under 200 and then getting his weight up, and also discount Tatum Bell and Clinton Portis for coming in over 200 and then dropping weight. Westbrook came in at 200 on the nose, which is a whopping 3 pound difference from Isaiah Pead.

Walterfootball has Pead's 40 time at 4.41. Nfldraftscout has it at 4.39. NFLcombineresults.com also has him at 4.39. Pro Football Weekly has him at 4.44, and they list his combine time at 4.43. It seems you're right that his official combine time was 4.47; no idea where those other numbers are coming from.

My point, though, is that the NFL is pretty efficient. Do you think scouting departments and front offices aren't aware of the history of sub-200 pound backs? That they weren't aware of Pead's forty time when they took him in the second, or Richardson's when they took him in the seventh? Pead's size and speed were already factored into his draft position- counting them against him again is double-counting. I do agree that there aren't a whole lot of precedents for backs with Pead's measurables (or Richardson's, for that matter) succeeding, but there aren't a whole lot of precedents for backs with Pead's measurables even getting a shot in the NFL. The fact that Pead got that shot indicates he's got something that differentiates him from all those other backs who had similar measurables. The NFL is a very diverse place, and there's room for a huge variety of non-prototypical players to succeed- from the WR-thin Dunn to the dwarf-short Jones-Drew to the small-and-slow Westbrook. You see it at other positions, with guys like Tavon Austin going in the top 10 despite a complete lack of historical comps. I usually find that the best policy is to assume that the NFL knows what it's doing, and that any objections I might raise about a player have already been carefully considered.

I think your "sub-4.4 exception" is the perfect example of this. Five years ago, your argument would have been "name a sub-200 pound back that has a 200 carry season", and it would have been an impressive argument whose only real counter-example was Warrick Dunn. And then Jamaal Charles and Chris Johnson and C.J. Spiller came around, and now we think it's the most natural and normal thing for small RBs to get 200+ carries... provided they've got plenty of speed. Who is to say that several years from now, we aren't carving out an exception for guys like Pead and Westbrook, too?

 

[jurb26]

My lord, what is going on here??? A 4 page thread about a 5th round RB in a mess backfield and its only June! Lol, gotta love the SP. with exception to some of the tangents and rants this is a quality thread just the kind I love in the dullest portion of the football year.

As someone who drafted Stacy 2 months ago in a dynasty league u fell compelled to read thru this entire thread as I'm not sure where exactly I stand on Stacy. My thought process to draft him was simple. He was the BPA at the time I took him. I liked him at Vandy but was never blown away. He is a smart, tough and powerful runner who gets the USA that are there, can move a pile but will never stand out IMO. There is nothing flashy about his game, it's almost workmanlike. When he landed in St. L he got my attention. I'm just not a big fan if either Pead or Richardson and for all intents and purposes St. L seemed a great landing spot for a guy like Stacy. He differentiates himself from the competition there from a skill set perspective and could be more the type of runner Fisher wants. In short, I think he will be given a shot to compete for touches. Really when you strip away all the banter that is all this is about. Can a rookie drafted in the 5th round secure an opportunity for touches? Then you have to wonder if said player is capable of capitalizing on them. I think the answer to question 1 is an easy yes. The 2nd question I'm just not sure right now. I'm leaning towards this being a RBBC but Fisher doesn't seem to like that approach. If any RB in St. L emerges as the bellcow I'd have to place my bets on Stacy.

 

[gianmarco]

Clinton Portis came in over 200 lbs

Brian Westbrook came in at 200 lbs

Tatum Bell came in at 212 lbs

And Pead ran a 4.47

While I can't find anything official, it seems Dunn's 40 time was sub 4.3

So, I'm not sure where you're getting all your information from, but the handful of names you just provided were pretty much incorrect and support what I was saying.

I'm excluding the sub 4.4 guys because that's exactly my point. If you're going to be under 200 lbs and be the main ball carrier, you better be elite somewhere else (speed). J. Charles and Chris Johnson have elite speed. I'm not dismissing them at all. I like both guys a ton. But the reason why they are successful at such a small weight is their ridiculous jets. Pead and Richardson do not have those (both ran a 4.47 which is not anything near elite for their size).

If either of those guys add some weight, then I'll change my position on them. As of right now, going into their 2nd year, they are both still listed in the 190's. If you can actually provide me a list of RBs under 200 lbs without elite speed (and sub 4.4 isn't even THAT elite), I'm willing to listen. But, even if you're able to find a couple names, the odds are EXTREMELY stacked against them unless they add some weight.

ETA--And it's also not as if these guys are shorter and carry their weight better. They are actually both 5'10" and just aren't built very big. They are built like speed backs but lack the actual speed. At least if they were 5'7" or 5'8" and that weight, I might be a bit more sold on why they should be an exception.

Portis came in over 200, but he lost a lot of weight his rookie year. Tatum Bell came in at 212, but played as low as 190- you can't discount Ray Rice for coming in under 200 and then getting his weight up, and also discount Tatum Bell and Clinton Portis for coming in over 200 and then dropping weight. Westbrook came in at 200 on the nose, which is a whopping 3 pound difference from Isaiah Pead.

Walterfootball has Pead's 40 time at 4.41. Nfldraftscout has it at 4.39. NFLcombineresults.com also has him at 4.39. Pro Football Weekly has him at 4.44, and they list his combine time at 4.43. It seems you're right that his official combine time was 4.47; no idea where those other numbers are coming from.

My point, though, is that the NFL is pretty efficient. Do you think scouting departments and front offices aren't aware of the history of sub-200 pound backs? That they weren't aware of Pead's forty time when they took him in the second, or Richardson's when they took him in the seventh? Pead's size and speed were already factored into his draft position- counting them against him again is double-counting. I do agree that there aren't a whole lot of precedents for backs with Pead's measurables (or Richardson's, for that matter) succeeding, but there aren't a whole lot of precedents for backs with Pead's measurables even getting a shot in the NFL. The fact that Pead got that shot indicates he's got something that differentiates him from all those other backs who had similar measurables. The NFL is a very diverse place, and there's room for a huge variety of non-prototypical players to succeed- from the WR-thin Dunn to the dwarf-short Jones-Drew to the small-and-slow Westbrook. You see it at other positions, with guys like Tavon Austin going in the top 10 despite a complete lack of historical comps. I usually find that the best policy is to assume that the NFL knows what it's doing, and that any objections I might raise about a player have already been carefully considered.

I think your "sub-4.4 exception" is the perfect example of this. Five years ago, your argument would have been "name a sub-200 pound back that has a 200 carry season", and it would have been an impressive argument whose only real counter-example was Warrick Dunn. And then Jamaal Charles and Chris Johnson and C.J. Spiller came around, and now we think it's the most natural and normal thing for small RBs to get 200+ carries... provided they've got plenty of speed. Who is to say that several years from now, we aren't carving out an exception for guys like Pead and Westbrook, too?

I wasn't discounting Portis or Bell for dropping below 200. I just didn't find any evidence of either doing so and didn't know about it and frankly would find it odd, especially since Bell came in at 212, for him to drop ~15 lbs AFTER getting into the NFL. If they did and played at those weights while getting 200+ carries, add them to the list. If that's the case, you've almost got to start using more than 1 hand to count these guys. Almost.

As for Pead, you can just watch it here. He ran a 4.47

As for your point about the NFL knowing the data when drafting him, you're assuming that any RB drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round is drafted to be THE guy. That isn't the case at all. Guys like Brian Leonard and Toby Gerhart were drafted in the 2nd round by teams with young established RBs with no likelihood of being the main guy. There are some very good complimentary players drafted in those spots. You're assuming they drafted him in the 2nd to be SJax's replacement when he could have been viewed as a very nice complimentary piece for him and whoever the future guy would be. Point is, look at my list above and you'll see that it's not some amazing rarity that sub 200 lb guys are drafted early in the draft.

You are right that things could change and we might look back at Pead and Richardson bucking and setting some kind of new trend. But I certainly don't see enough by either one of them that I'd gamble on that happening. History isn't kind to their prospects of having any type of fantasy relevance at their current sizes and speed. And it's not even close. It's incredibly bad for them. We're looking at 3-4 guys that MAYBE fit the same type profile.

FWIW, I didn't shoehorn either CJ3 or Spiller into a "no chance of succeeding". Those guys clearly stood out on film. There is nothing jaw dropping or exceptional about either Pead or Richardson. I'm not saying they look bad, but they certainly don't make me think I'm looking at a clear-cut exception here. Austin, who you pointed out, DOES have that look. And I don't think I'm in some minority here going out on a little branch proclaiming that. I missed the Pead Hype Train thread that's 20+ pages long like CJ3 had or Spiller had.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Clinton Portis came in over 200 lbs

Brian Westbrook came in at 200 lbs

Tatum Bell came in at 212 lbs

And Pead ran a 4.47

While I can't find anything official, it seems Dunn's 40 time was sub 4.3

So, I'm not sure where you're getting all your information from, but the handful of names you just provided were pretty much incorrect and support what I was saying.

I'm excluding the sub 4.4 guys because that's exactly my point. If you're going to be under 200 lbs and be the main ball carrier, you better be elite somewhere else (speed). J. Charles and Chris Johnson have elite speed. I'm not dismissing them at all. I like both guys a ton. But the reason why they are successful at such a small weight is their ridiculous jets. Pead and Richardson do not have those (both ran a 4.47 which is not anything near elite for their size).

If either of those guys add some weight, then I'll change my position on them. As of right now, going into their 2nd year, they are both still listed in the 190's. If you can actually provide me a list of RBs under 200 lbs without elite speed (and sub 4.4 isn't even THAT elite), I'm willing to listen. But, even if you're able to find a couple names, the odds are EXTREMELY stacked against them unless they add some weight.

ETA--And it's also not as if these guys are shorter and carry their weight better. They are actually both 5'10" and just aren't built very big. They are built like speed backs but lack the actual speed. At least if they were 5'7" or 5'8" and that weight, I might be a bit more sold on why they should be an exception.

Portis came in over 200, but he lost a lot of weight his rookie year. Tatum Bell came in at 212, but played as low as 190- you can't discount Ray Rice for coming in under 200 and then getting his weight up, and also discount Tatum Bell and Clinton Portis for coming in over 200 and then dropping weight. Westbrook came in at 200 on the nose, which is a whopping 3 pound difference from Isaiah Pead.

Walterfootball has Pead's 40 time at 4.41. Nfldraftscout has it at 4.39. NFLcombineresults.com also has him at 4.39. Pro Football Weekly has him at 4.44, and they list his combine time at 4.43. It seems you're right that his official combine time was 4.47; no idea where those other numbers are coming from.

My point, though, is that the NFL is pretty efficient. Do you think scouting departments and front offices aren't aware of the history of sub-200 pound backs? That they weren't aware of Pead's forty time when they took him in the second, or Richardson's when they took him in the seventh? Pead's size and speed were already factored into his draft position- counting them against him again is double-counting. I do agree that there aren't a whole lot of precedents for backs with Pead's measurables (or Richardson's, for that matter) succeeding, but there aren't a whole lot of precedents for backs with Pead's measurables even getting a shot in the NFL. The fact that Pead got that shot indicates he's got something that differentiates him from all those other backs who had similar measurables. The NFL is a very diverse place, and there's room for a huge variety of non-prototypical players to succeed- from the WR-thin Dunn to the dwarf-short Jones-Drew to the small-and-slow Westbrook. You see it at other positions, with guys like Tavon Austin going in the top 10 despite a complete lack of historical comps. I usually find that the best policy is to assume that the NFL knows what it's doing, and that any objections I might raise about a player have already been carefully considered.

I think your "sub-4.4 exception" is the perfect example of this. Five years ago, your argument would have been "name a sub-200 pound back that has a 200 carry season", and it would have been an impressive argument whose only real counter-example was Warrick Dunn. And then Jamaal Charles and Chris Johnson and C.J. Spiller came around, and now we think it's the most natural and normal thing for small RBs to get 200+ carries... provided they've got plenty of speed. Who is to say that several years from now, we aren't carving out an exception for guys like Pead and Westbrook, too?

I wasn't discounting Portis or Bell for dropping below 200. I just didn't find any evidence of either doing so and didn't know about it and frankly would find it odd, especially since Bell came in at 212, for him to drop ~15 lbs AFTER getting into the NFL. If they did and played at those weights while getting 200+ carries, add them to the list. If that's the case, you've almost got to start using more than 1 hand to count these guys. Almost.

As for Pead, you can just watch it here. He ran a 4.47

As for your point about the NFL knowing the data when drafting him, you're assuming that any RB drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round is drafted to be THE guy. That isn't the case at all. Guys like Brian Leonard and Toby Gerhart were drafted in the 2nd round by teams with young established RBs with no likelihood of being the main guy. There are some very good complimentary players drafted in those spots. You're assuming they drafted him in the 2nd to be SJax's replacement when he could have been viewed as a very nice complimentary piece for him and whoever the future guy would be. Point is, look at my list above and you'll see that it's not some amazing rarity that sub 200 lb guys are drafted early in the draft.

You are right that things could change and we might look back at Pead and Richardson bucking and setting some kind of new trend. But I certainly don't see enough by either one of them that I'd gamble on that happening. History isn't kind to their prospects of having any type of fantasy relevance at their current sizes and speed. And it's not even close. It's incredibly bad for them. We're looking at 3-4 guys that MAYBE fit the same type profile.

FWIW, I didn't shoehorn either CJ3 or Spiller into a "no chance of succeeding". Those guys clearly stood out on film. There is nothing jaw dropping or exceptional about either Pead or Richardson. I'm not saying they look bad, but they certainly don't make me think I'm looking at a clear-cut exception here. Austin, who you pointed out, DOES have that look. And I don't think I'm in some minority here going out on a little branch proclaiming that. I missed the Pead Hype Train thread that's 20+ pages long like CJ3 had or Spiller had.

* Lammey (who was covering the team at the time) mentioned Portis dropped into the 180s as a rookie. No link.

* Bell is listed at 190 pounds on PFR, which is usually very good at updating player weights.

* Funny you should mention Pead not being drafted to be "THE guy". I'll let Jeff Fisher answer this one: "We drafted Isaiah because we felt like he has a chance to be a good back. Not necessarily just a change of pace back for ‘Jack,’ but the guy." (emphasis mine)

* Perhaps the reason you missed the 20+ page Pead hype thread is because Chris Wesseling, the guy behind the 20+ page Johnson hype thread, had already moved on to Rotoworld. Here's Wesseling http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/41048/69/dynasty-rankings]last August: "Bumped Pead from No. 9 to No. 5 after going back and watching clips from his senior season. It's easy to see why he has invoked comparisons to Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson, and Lesean McCoy. I can't blame anyone for preferring first-rounder Wilson, who is an explosive talent in his own right, but Pead jumps off the screen to me."

 

[Sabertooth]

Jesus people are going to great lengths to justify their "shark moves" in picking Stacy.

Here is what I see when I look at this situation that is supposedly so good for Stacy. Steven Jackson couldn't crack 1000 yards, nor could he muster more than 4 touchdowns despite not being listed as anything more than Probable for a game. So you'd have to think that is about Zac's ceiling IF, and it's quite an IF, he is as good as a 29 year old Sjax was. I doubt he's that good.

My prediction IF he is "the guy" and IF he can stay healthy - 220 carries, 800 yards, 4 touchdowns. Another 20 catches, 150 yards, 0. Right around RB20-25 range

 

[moderated]

Full list of 1999+ RBs with <200 lbs and >4.40 40 times with 200+ carries:

Trung Canidate - 1st round

Travis Minor - 3rd round

Darren Sproles - 4th round

Ahmad Bradshaw - 7th round

Steve Slaton - 3rd round

Ray Rice - 2nd round

I don't yet have UDFAs in my database, if anyone has someone else to add.

All but Canidate and Sproles came in at 197-199, and all but Bradshaw had sub-4.5 times.

There's a reason all these guys added weight (or tried to). Pead and Richardson need to do the same. The thing is, those types of things are usually reported and so far I haven't seen anything about them trying to do so. If either can get over 200 (ideally at least 205), then I'll change my tune on them. Until then, I think there's almost a zero chance that either of them gets any kind of significant load.

So if you think there is a zero chance Pead or Richardson gets a significant load you're basically implying that Stacy (the 5th round wonder) has a 90%+ chance to be the primary ball carrier in St Louis?

If St Louis had zero faith in Pead or Richardson to be involved significantly there is no way they would wait until the 5th round to take a RB.

Your logical failure, exhibited consistently in this thread, is that we are claiming what St. Louis believes about Pead and Richardson.

They won't succeed. St. Louis may think they'll succeed. But they won't.

I like Stacy because I believe he will get an opportunity eventually, when it's clear option 1 and option 2 aren't working.

So you know more then the St Louis coaches, gotcha.

 

[LususV]

My lord, what is going on here??? A 4 page thread about a 5th round RB in a mess backfield and its only June! Lol, gotta love the SP. with exception to some of the tangents and rants this is a quality thread just the kind I love in the dullest portion of the football year.As someone who drafted Stacy 2 months ago in a dynasty league u fell compelled to read thru this entire thread as I'm not sure where exactly I stand on Stacy. My thought process to draft him was simple. He was the BPA at the time I took him. I liked him at Vandy but was never blown away. He is a smart, tough and powerful runner who gets the USA that are there, can move a pile but will never stand out IMO. There is nothing flashy about his game, it's almost workmanlike. When he landed in St. L he got my attention. I'm just not a big fan if either Pead or Richardson and for all intents and purposes St. L seemed a great landing spot for a guy like Stacy. He differentiates himself from the competition there from a skill set perspective and could be more the type of runner Fisher wants. In short, I think he will be given a shot to compete for touches. Really when you strip away all the banter that is all this is about. Can a rookie drafted in the 5th round secure an opportunity for touches? Then you have to wonder if said player is capable of capitalizing on them. I think the answer to question 1 is an easy yes. The 2nd question I'm just not sure right now. I'm leaning towards this being a RBBC but Fisher doesn't seem to like that approach. If any RB in St. L emerges as the bellcow I'd have to place my bets on Stacy.

Totally agreed with the bolded.

Btw, his 2011-2012 carries by yardage:

	2011	2012<-3	9	5-3 to 0	22	210 to 2	32	352 to 4	43	474 to 6	21	326 to 8	22	188 to 10	14	1810-15	19	1615-20	8	720-25	3	125-30	1	330+	7	4

 

[LususV]

Full list of 1999+ RBs with <200 lbs and >4.40 40 times with 200+ carries:

Trung Canidate - 1st round

Travis Minor - 3rd round

Darren Sproles - 4th round

Ahmad Bradshaw - 7th round

Steve Slaton - 3rd round

Ray Rice - 2nd round

I don't yet have UDFAs in my database, if anyone has someone else to add.

All but Canidate and Sproles came in at 197-199, and all but Bradshaw had sub-4.5 times.

There's a reason all these guys added weight (or tried to). Pead and Richardson need to do the same. The thing is, those types of things are usually reported and so far I haven't seen anything about them trying to do so. If either can get over 200 (ideally at least 205), then I'll change my tune on them. Until then, I think there's almost a zero chance that either of them gets any kind of significant load.

So if you think there is a zero chance Pead or Richardson gets a significant load you're basically implying that Stacy (the 5th round wonder) has a 90%+ chance to be the primary ball carrier in St Louis?

If St Louis had zero faith in Pead or Richardson to be involved significantly there is no way they would wait until the 5th round to take a RB.

Your logical failure, exhibited consistently in this thread, is that we are claiming what St. Louis believes about Pead and Richardson.

They won't succeed. St. Louis may think they'll succeed. But they won't.

I like Stacy because I believe he will get an opportunity eventually, when it's clear option 1 and option 2 aren't working.

So you know more then the St Louis coaches, gotcha.

http://replygif.net/i/681

 

[jurb26]

Jesus people are going to great lengths to justify their "shark moves" in picking Stacy. Here is what I see when I look at this situation that is supposedly so good for Stacy. Steven Jackson couldn't crack 1000 yards, nor could he muster more than 4 touchdowns despite not being listed as anything more than Probable for a game. So you'd have to think that is about Zac's ceiling IF, and it's quite an IF, he is as good as a 29 year old Sjax was. I doubt he's that good. My prediction IF he is "the guy" and IF he can stay healthy - 220 carries, 800 yards, 4 touchdowns. Another 20 catches, 150 yards, 0. Right around RB20-25 range

For the price I paid, I'll gladly take that. If he's named the starter he will have productive weeks. I doubt anyone who rosetted him is leaning on him as a regular starter. He would provide bye week depth and possible injury bailout with that stat line. I think he's capable of more than that personally but why both arguing about such a subjective matter right now.

 

[LususV]

Jesus people are going to great lengths to justify their "shark moves" in picking Stacy.

Here is what I see when I look at this situation that is supposedly so good for Stacy. Steven Jackson couldn't crack 1000 yards, nor could he muster more than 4 touchdowns despite not being listed as anything more than Probable for a game. So you'd have to think that is about Zac's ceiling IF, and it's quite an IF, he is as good as a 29 year old Sjax was. I doubt he's that good.

My prediction IF he is "the guy" and IF he can stay healthy - 220 carries, 800 yards, 4 touchdowns. Another 20 catches, 150 yards, 0. Right around RB20-25 range

The Rams have better O-Line and better receivers than they did with SJax last year. Upside for a lead back in St. Louis went up, in my opinion, with their changes.

Of course, my upside limit on Stacy is RB15-20 range, so we're certainly not far off.

 

[moderated]

Full list of 1999+ RBs with <200 lbs and >4.40 40 times with 200+ carries:

Trung Canidate - 1st round

Travis Minor - 3rd round

Darren Sproles - 4th round

Ahmad Bradshaw - 7th round

Steve Slaton - 3rd round

Ray Rice - 2nd round

I don't yet have UDFAs in my database, if anyone has someone else to add.

All but Canidate and Sproles came in at 197-199, and all but Bradshaw had sub-4.5 times.

There's a reason all these guys added weight (or tried to). Pead and Richardson need to do the same. The thing is, those types of things are usually reported and so far I haven't seen anything about them trying to do so. If either can get over 200 (ideally at least 205), then I'll change my tune on them. Until then, I think there's almost a zero chance that either of them gets any kind of significant load.

So if you think there is a zero chance Pead or Richardson gets a significant load you're basically implying that Stacy (the 5th round wonder) has a 90%+ chance to be the primary ball carrier in St Louis?

If St Louis had zero faith in Pead or Richardson to be involved significantly there is no way they would wait until the 5th round to take a RB.

Your logical failure, exhibited consistently in this thread, is that we are claiming what St. Louis believes about Pead and Richardson.

They won't succeed. St. Louis may think they'll succeed. But they won't.

I like Stacy because I believe he will get an opportunity eventually, when it's clear option 1 and option 2 aren't working.

So you know more then the St Louis coaches, gotcha.

http://replygif.net/i/681

Exactly what i'd be doing if i wasted a high 2nd round rookie pick on a 5th round RB.

 

[Sabertooth]

Let's see how Zac Stacy and Mike Gillislee measure up. If somebody could provide an accurate current ADP for both, I'd appreciate it.

Both are 22 years old. ADV Draw

Stacy went 5.27 and Gillislee 5.31 call that a wash. ADV Draw

Both have solid builds, Stacy is a little shorter and heavier. ADV Stacy

Both come into situations where the starter is unproven. Excepting the fact that Gillislee is behind Lamar Miller whose production was more than doubled by Daryl Richardson in 2012. ADV Gillislee

Both are on young teams with unproven quarterbacks and unproven surrounding casts. I'd argue Miami has better skill players across the board. ADV Gillislee

Both teams allowed their 2012 lead backs to walk in Free Agency this year. ADV Draw

What is the big difference here? Why is Stacy getting the hype when Gillislee has arguably landed in a better situation and all other things are basically equal? Stacy is 3 inches shorter and 8 lbs heavier. It isn't like he's some wrecking ball at 216 where Gillislee is slight at 208.

If anyone else wants to add to this tale of the tape, please do so.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Jesus people are going to great lengths to justify their "shark moves" in picking Stacy.

Here is what I see when I look at this situation that is supposedly so good for Stacy. Steven Jackson couldn't crack 1000 yards, nor could he muster more than 4 touchdowns despite not being listed as anything more than Probable for a game. So you'd have to think that is about Zac's ceiling IF, and it's quite an IF, he is as good as a 29 year old Sjax was. I doubt he's that good.

My prediction IF he is "the guy" and IF he can stay healthy - 220 carries, 800 yards, 4 touchdowns. Another 20 catches, 150 yards, 0. Right around RB20-25 range

If he gets that kind of workload, he will very likely get noticeably more TDs.

I think the most likely thing happening is that this is a three way RBBC. I could see, within that committee, Stacy getting 8-10 touches a game and all the goal line carries, ending up with a goofy line like 150-600, 14-95, 10 TDs.

I doubt he gets 20 touches a game, so I think Sabre's prediction if Stacy is the guy is a solid one, though with upside in ypc and TDs.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Let's see how Zac Stacy and Mike Gillislee measure up. If somebody could provide an accurate current ADP for both, I'd appreciate it.

Stacy went 5.27 and Gillislee 5.31 call that a wash. ADV Draw

Both have solid builds, Stacy is a little shorter and heavier. ADV Stacy

Both come into situations where the starter is unproven. Excepting the fact that Gillislee is behind Lamar Miller whose production was more than doubled by Daryl Richardson in 2012. ADV Gillislee

Both are on young teams with unproven quarterbacks and unproven surrounding casts. I'd argue Miami has better skill players across the board. ADV Gillislee

Both teams allowed their 2012 lead backs to walk in Free Agency this year. ADV Draw

What is the big difference here? Why is Stacy getting the hype when Gillislee has arguably landed in a better situation and all other things are basically equal.

One thing is that Zac Stacy beat Gillislee in almost every combine drill fairly handily, despite being shorter and heavier. Also, Miller has a greater likelihood of being a feature back than the slighter Pead and Richardson. And many would argue against your Miami team skill position being better assertion.

 

[jurb26]

Both come into situations where the starter is unproven. Excepting the fact that Gillislee is behind Lamar Miller whose production was more than doubled by Daryl Richardson in 2012. ADV Gillislee

What? This is crazy. Ignoring the perspective talent levels of Miller vs. the St. L crew because its admittedly subjective to the beholder. Mia has flat out stated on numerous occasions as well as several team members that Miller has the job. This is an enormous advantage for Stacy.

 

[Sabertooth]

Could you list those drills and the results please, just for goofs?

I don't know about that second one, I guess we can call it a draw but I think WR1 Wallace is better than anyone on the Rams offense. I also think TE Keller is a better than Cook. I'd call Tannehill and Bradford a draw although their games are very different.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Full list of 1999+ RBs with <200 lbs and >4.40 40 times with 200+ carries:

Trung Canidate - 1st round

Travis Minor - 3rd round

Darren Sproles - 4th round

Ahmad Bradshaw - 7th round

Steve Slaton - 3rd round

Ray Rice - 2nd round

I don't yet have UDFAs in my database, if anyone has someone else to add. I plan on merging full NFL info with college stats eventually.

All but Canidate and Sproles came in at 197-199, and all but Bradshaw had sub-4.5 times.

Why wouldn't LeSaun McCoy fit this bill to a T? Came in slow at 198. At least a the combine.

I agree with the general point that you need to either be powerful or fast (or both) to be really effective in the NFL, but McCoy seems like a pretty good counter example to me.

McCoy is up to 208 and has been since his 2nd year. In fact, in 2011, he added even more weight but then got back down to his 2010 weight of 208.

As you see, there's a common theme here. There are plenty of guys that come in under 200 lbs. Some get their weight up, some don't. All of the guys that get a decent load ended up getting up over 200 lbs (and often times over 205).

Pead and Richardson are still listed at under 200 lbs going into their second year.

Meh. The general point is that McCoy is NOT a big guy (then or now), nor an overly fast guy. But he's apparently very effective. And who knows what Pead will be "listed" at going into the season this year?

Look, like I said, I don't really disagree at all with your general premise. The best guys are big or fast or both, but not neither. But there ARE exceptions.

I own Stacy and Pead in different leagues. I think Stacy is generally worth his typical draft slot because he's one of those guys who has enough on tape and in the measurables to do really well with a good opportunity. I've seen him go "too high" for my taste and I've seen him go "too low". Lots of risk + fair amount of upside = early 2nd round pick.

 

[Sabertooth]

I am gonna start a new thread with a poll.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Could you list those drills and the results please, just for goofs?

I don't know about that second one, I guess we can call it a draw but I think WR1 Wallace is better than anyone on the Rams offense. I also think TE Keller is a better than Cook. I'd call Tannehill and Bradford a draw although their games are very different.

Stacy:
5'8", 216 lbs
40: 4.55
bench: 27 reps
vertical: 33
broad jump: 122
3 cone: 6.70
20 yd shuttle: 4.17

Gillislee:
5'11", 208 lbs
40: 4.55
bench: 15 reps
vertical: 30.5
broad jump: 119
3 cone: 7.12
20 yd shuttle: 4.40

 

[gandalas]

Could you list those drills and the results please, just for goofs?

Stacy:

4.55 40 (11th best), 27 reps (3rd best), 33.0 vert (less than 20th best), 122.0 Broad (6th best), 6.70 3-cone (2nd best), 4.17 20 yd shuttle (6th best)

Gillislee:

4.55 40 (11th best), 15 REPS (less than 20th best), 30.5 vert (less than 20th best), 119.0 Broad (13th best), 7.12 3-cone (15th best), 4.40 20 yd shuttle (less than 20th best)

Pretty decisive that Stacy was better in every drill other than 40-time.