gianmarco
Footballguy
He missed half of 2013 (5 years ago) and missed half of 2016. Other than that, he's played 14+ games in his 8 game career (6 of the remaining 8 years). His missed games aren't an issue to me. We can point to quite a few elite players that have missed time.Not a very good one anymore.
Last 16 game season was 2011. 26 missed games since. 11 TDs in his last 20 games. He had 23 TDs in the 30 games prior but 2014-2015 is a lifetime ago in the NFL.
Still the best TE out there without question but he has been declining and comes with more risk every season as he and Brady get older. The offensive line also appears to be a little bit worse than last year which isn't good for either Gronk or Brady.
His TD rate may be down slightly, but his scoring is only slightly down and his positional rank has remained constant. He is coming off his "worst" year and was still a significant fantasy force. Other than Kelce and Ertz, he had >5 ppg advantage over the #4 TE in 1 ppr. He had almost an 8 ppg advantage over the #12 TE. Those are similar #'s to what the top WR (Brown) had over the #12 WR and slightly under what the top RB (Gurley) had over the #12 RB.
But the difference is two-fold. While Brown has held that same spot at WR, the same isn't said for RB. This year, who knows who the top RB will be. Could be Gurley. Or Zeke. Or Bell. Or DJ. Or Barkley. Or maybe even Fournette or Hunt or Kamara or Gordon. Secondly, there is only 1 TE spot vs. multiple RB/WR spots for most starting rosters. And there are far more options to potentially hit on to lower that differential when you face those top guys. It's almost impossible to do that at TE. One year you might get lucky with Reed or another with D. Walker or another with Ertz. But none of those guys have the consistency of Gronk with the exception of Kelce as of late.
So, at a position of scarcity and with a player that you can virtually guarantee will be at the top if he's playing, there's almost no surer thing in fantasy football to help your team. A. Brown is the other guy that fits that mold (and his price hasn't come down).
In terms of ppg (and in 2016 I did take out the couple games where he was clearly limited and wasn't a startable option as it was reported ahead of time he would barely play, so slight * there), here's Gronk:
2011 -- 20.7 ppg (#1 overall)
2012 -- 18.2 ppg (#1 overall)
2013 -- 17.5 ppg (#2 overall)
2014 -- 17.8 ppg (#1 overall)
2015 -- 17.0 ppg (#2 overall)
2016 -- 19 ppg (#1 overall)
2017 -- 16.4 ppg (#1 overall)
Yes, 2017 was his lowest point yet and maybe that's a reason for his discount now compared to year's past. But, I would be shocked if that number continued to go lower. I don't think there's a safer bet in fantasy football. It's hard to lose as a result of selecting him. I know anecdotally speaking that I've rarely seen a Gronk owner miss the playoffs with the exception of 2016.
So, I disagree that there isn't a good argument for that anymore. You might not agree with it, but there is plenty of supporting evidence that he's still worth it.