Your 5 "MUST HAVES" in redraft for 2018 (1 Viewer)

[gianmarco]

Not a very good one anymore.

Last 16 game season was 2011.  26 missed games since.  11 TDs in his last 20 games.  He had 23 TDs in the 30 games prior but 2014-2015 is a lifetime ago in the NFL.

Still the best TE out there without question but he has been declining and comes with more risk every season as he and Brady get older.  The offensive line also appears to be a little bit worse than last year which isn't good for either Gronk or Brady.

He missed half of 2013 (5 years ago) and missed half of 2016.  Other than that, he's played 14+ games in his 8 game career (6 of the remaining 8 years).  His missed games aren't an issue to me.  We can point to quite a few elite players that have missed time. 

His TD rate may be down slightly, but his scoring is only slightly down and his positional rank has remained constant.  He is coming off his "worst" year and was still a significant fantasy force.  Other than Kelce and Ertz, he had >5 ppg advantage over the #4 TE in 1 ppr.  He had almost an 8 ppg advantage over the #12 TE.  Those are similar #'s to what the top WR (Brown) had over the #12 WR and slightly under what the top RB (Gurley) had over the #12 RB.

But the difference is two-fold.  While Brown has held that same spot at WR, the same isn't said for RB.  This year, who knows who the top RB will be.  Could be Gurley.  Or Zeke.  Or Bell.  Or DJ.  Or Barkley.  Or maybe even Fournette or Hunt or Kamara or Gordon.  Secondly, there is only 1 TE spot vs. multiple RB/WR spots for most starting rosters.  And there are far more options to potentially hit on to lower that differential when you face those top guys.  It's almost impossible to do that at TE.  One year you might get lucky with Reed or another with D. Walker or another with Ertz.  But none of those guys have the consistency of Gronk with the exception of Kelce as of late. 

So, at a position of scarcity and with a player that you can virtually guarantee will be at the top if he's playing, there's almost no surer thing in fantasy football to help your team.  A. Brown is the other guy that fits that mold (and his price hasn't come down). 

In terms of ppg (and in 2016 I did take out the couple games where he was clearly limited and wasn't a startable option as it was reported ahead of time he would barely play, so slight * there), here's Gronk:

2011 -- 20.7 ppg (#1 overall)
2012 -- 18.2 ppg (#1 overall)
2013 -- 17.5 ppg (#2 overall)
2014 -- 17.8 ppg (#1 overall)
2015 -- 17.0 ppg (#2 overall)
2016 -- 19 ppg (#1 overall)
2017 -- 16.4 ppg (#1 overall)

Yes, 2017 was his lowest point yet and maybe that's a reason for his discount now compared to year's past.  But, I would be shocked if that number continued to go lower.  I don't think there's a safer bet in fantasy football.  It's hard to lose as a result of selecting him.  I know anecdotally speaking that I've rarely seen a Gronk owner miss the playoffs with the exception of 2016. 

So, I disagree that there isn't a good argument for that anymore.  You might not agree with it, but there is plenty of supporting evidence that he's still worth it.

 

[Cobbler1]

Sorry, I don't see Ajayi mentioned and Agholor is certainly not 2nd team.

Seriously man? You’re going to use Agholor’s presence as proof it’s first team work when he’s catching passes from Sudfeld and sharing the field with Greg Ward, some Davis fella, and whatever a Billy Brown is? After it was reported that he saw barely any first team action.

 

[Amused to Death]

Seriously man? You’re going to use Agholor’s presence as proof it’s first team work when he’s catching passes from Sudfeld and sharing the field Greg Ward, some Davis fella, and whatever a Billy Brown is? After it was reported that he saw barely any first team action.

My last post on this, but I'm using Agholor's presence to demonstrate it was not all 2nd teamers on the field.  Also, its another mention of CC getting GL work where I've seen none about JA.

When I find any news on JA, I'll post in his his thread.

 

[Cobbler1]

My last post on this, but I'm using Agholor's presence to demonstrate it was not all 2nd teamers on the field.  Also, its another mention of CC getting GL work where I've seen none about JA.

When I find any news on JA, I'll post in his his thread.

Catching a goal line fade from Nate Sudfeld does nothing to diminish my belief that Ajayi will be the goal line guy in power running formations.

 

[dmac37]

All day on Emmanuel...

This.

Over the years I have been a D. Thomas guy but Sanders and Kenuum seem to be connecting and I was able to grab him as the #33 WR off the board. Everyone is scared off after last year.

 

[Chaka]

He missed half of 2013 (5 years ago) and missed half of 2016.  Other than that, he's played 14+ games in his 8 game career (6 of the remaining 8 years).  His missed games aren't an issue to me.  We can point to quite a few elite players that have missed time. 

His TD rate may be down slightly, but his scoring is only slightly down and his positional rank has remained constant.  He is coming off his "worst" year and was still a significant fantasy force.  Other than Kelce and Ertz, he had >5 ppg advantage over the #4 TE in 1 ppr.  He had almost an 8 ppg advantage over the #12 TE.  Those are similar #'s to what the top WR (Brown) had over the #12 WR and slightly under what the top RB (Gurley) had over the #12 RB.

But the difference is two-fold.  While Brown has held that same spot at WR, the same isn't said for RB.  This year, who knows who the top RB will be.  Could be Gurley.  Or Zeke.  Or Bell.  Or DJ.  Or Barkley.  Or maybe even Fournette or Hunt or Kamara or Gordon.  Secondly, there is only 1 TE spot vs. multiple RB/WR spots for most starting rosters.  And there are far more options to potentially hit on to lower that differential when you face those top guys.  It's almost impossible to do that at TE.  One year you might get lucky with Reed or another with D. Walker or another with Ertz.  But none of those guys have the consistency of Gronk with the exception of Kelce as of late. 

So, at a position of scarcity and with a player that you can virtually guarantee will be at the top if he's playing, there's almost no surer thing in fantasy football to help your team.  A. Brown is the other guy that fits that mold (and his price hasn't come down). 

In terms of ppg (and in 2016 I did take out the couple games where he was clearly limited and wasn't a startable option as it was reported ahead of time he would barely play, so slight * there), here's Gronk:

2011 -- 20.7 ppg (#1 overall)
2012 -- 18.2 ppg (#1 overall)
2013 -- 17.5 ppg (#2 overall)
2014 -- 17.8 ppg (#1 overall)
2015 -- 17.0 ppg (#2 overall)
2016 -- 19 ppg (#1 overall)
2017 -- 16.4 ppg (#1 overall)

Yes, 2017 was his lowest point yet and maybe that's a reason for his discount now compared to year's past.  But, I would be shocked if that number continued to go lower.  I don't think there's a safer bet in fantasy football.  It's hard to lose as a result of selecting him.  I know anecdotally speaking that I've rarely seen a Gronk owner miss the playoffs with the exception of 2016. 

So, I disagree that there isn't a good argument for that anymore.  You might not agree with it, but there is plenty of supporting evidence that he's still worth it.

I agree he is the #1 TE but there is just too much risk at this point.

0.76 TD/game vs 0.55 TD/game is more than a little bit.

He played 11 games in 2012, 7 in 2013, 15 in 2014 but only 10 starts, and 8 games in 2016. He is an real injury AND a week-over-week injury report nightmare.

A year older, as is Brady, contemplating retirement, on paper a lesser offensive line.

Still the #1 TE without question but too much risk for a top 5 overall ranking anymore. 

 

[Chaka]

My last post on this, but I'm using Agholor's presence to demonstrate it was not all 2nd teamers on the field.  Also, its another mention of CC getting GL work where I've seen none about JA.

When I find any news on JA, I'll post in his his thread.

Haven't there been multiple reports quoting the RB coach and Peterson saying Ajayi is going to be the lead back? Bigger workload, 250 carries and all that? Those seem every bit as substantial as Clement getting 3 ofnot5 touches in one  TC practice.

I sincerely doubt Ajayi is gonna be some sort of "between the 20s" back. He's a proven lead back and will be used as such. Clement will get plenty of work but nothing that has happened, or been said so far should dissuade people from thinking that Ajayi is the #1 RB in Philadelphia.

 

[Chaka]

I love all the Clement talk so far it really is increasing Ajayi's value. I am definitely targeting Ajayi at his ADP. Would love to get Clement too but his value seems a bit overinflated ATM relative to where I would prefer to draft him.

 

[Amused to Death]

Haven't there been multiple reports quoting the RB coach and Peterson saying Ajayi is going to be the lead back? Bigger workload, 250 carries and all that? Those seem every bit as substantial as Clement getting 3 ofnot5 touches in one  TC practice.

I sincerely doubt Ajayi is gonna be some sort of "between the 20s" back. He's a proven lead back and will be used as such. Clement will get plenty of work but nothing that has happened, or been said so far should dissuade people from thinking that Ajayi is the #1 RB in Philadelphia.

As I've said, just posting what I find/hear.  Word's been CC at the goal line/RZ.  Haven't seen anything to contradict that. Maybe it'll change.

 

[Amused to Death]

Haven't there been multiple reports quoting the RB coach and Peterson saying Ajayi is going to be the lead back? Bigger workload, 250 carries and all that? Those seem every bit as substantial as Clement getting 3 ofnot5 touches in one  TC practice.

I sincerely doubt Ajayi is gonna be some sort of "between the 20s" back. He's a proven lead back and will be used as such. Clement will get plenty of work but nothing that has happened, or been said so far should dissuade people from thinking that Ajayi is the #1 RB in Philadelphia.

COREY CLEMENT GETTING FIRST-TEAM REPS IN RED ZONE

The Eagles have Jay Ajayi has the first-team running back in the running back-by-committee, but Clement is the player getting the touches in the red zone. Philadelphia has plans to use Clement as a goal-line back this season, so expect a ton of touchdowns from the second-year player (had six in his rookie season). 

 

[Cobbler1]

COREY CLEMENT GETTING FIRST-TEAM REPS IN RED ZONE

The Eagles have Jay Ajayi has the first-team running back in the running back-by-committee, but Clement is the player getting the touches in the red zone. Philadelphia has plans to use Clement as a goal-line back this season, so expect a ton of touchdowns from the second-year player (had six in his rookie season). 

By far the most substantial thing I’ve seen so far and I appreciate it. Of course that’s from 2 months ago and is a beat guy’s speculation.

 

[Amused to Death]

By far the most substantial thing I’ve seen so far and I appreciate it. Of course that’s from 2 months ago and is a beat guy’s speculation.

Its the first I'm seeing it so blatant, but it follows all the talk I've heard since OTAs started.  I've seen/heard nothing to the contrary.  Yes, its old news, but until I see otherwise....

And actually the "getting the touches in the red zone" is observation, not opinion.

 

[zamboni]

Its the first I'm seeing it so blatant, but it follows all the talk I've heard since OTAs started.  I've seen/heard nothing to the contrary.  Yes, its old news, but until I see otherwise....

And actually the "getting the touches in the red zone" is observation, not opinion.

That may be true now, but when the games matter, one has to think that Ajayi will be at the goal line a lot unless the offense is trying to be a bit tricky. Ajayi is a hammer and tough to bring down.

 

[Dismattle]

Believe in some respects that "must haves" should mean who you drafting with your first five picks  So the opportunity will have some variance based on availability which means I'm gonna list six!

1st Round:  I would hope to draft Zeke  Proven commodity with plenty of opportunities who could exceed expectations

2nd Round: Jordan Howard  Solid performance w/o a passing game last Season  (lotta floor)

3rd Round: Mike Evans  Odds are quite a few WR's off the board leaving me slim pickings for my WR1

4th Round: Josh Gordon  (Lotta questions)  Hard to believe a Top 5 WR in the 4th?  I doubt he makes it to the 5th 

5th Round: Sony Michel  Can't win em' all Belief it's too early for my favored TE (no savings)  I kinda like Jeremy Hill if he makes the 53  Fans of Burkhead know I'm gonna lose on this!

6th Round: Evan Engram  6'3 240  (Guys built like a strong WR)  While the Defense attempts to contend with OBJ n' SB Eli will have his blanket

*Note I really do not know about the 5th Round  Guess I would consider R Jones (TB)  No real prep in this  I only play Dynasty  (Yet to have Rookie draft)

 

[Cobbler1]

Its the first I'm seeing it so blatant, but it follows all the talk I've heard since OTAs started.  I've seen/heard nothing to the contrary.  Yes, its old news, but until I see otherwise....

And actually the "getting the touches in the red zone" is observation, not opinion.

Haha that’s the part I appreciate.

 

[Amused to Death]

That may be true now, but when the games matter, one has to think that Ajayi will be at the goal line a lot unless the offense is trying to be a bit tricky. Ajayi is a hammer and tough to bring down.

Possible, but CC did lead all Eagles RBs in TDs last year.  They brought in Blount to be that guy last year and CC had more than him.

 

[Cobbler1]

Possible, but CC did lead all Eagles RBs in TDs last year.  They brought in Blount to be that guy last year and CC had more than him.

Very true but Blount did hold the short yardage role, out carried Clement in the red zone 33-13, and out carried him inside the 5 10-4. And did end up scoring 3 rushing tds in the 3 playoff games.

 

[NYRAGE]

Jamison crowder- he’s available late, is clicking with smith, and is almost a lock for 85+ rec in my opinion. 

Vance McDonald- available super late, flashed in the playoffs huge upside. If he gets playing time watch out. 10-112 cs Jacksonville.  Top 5 upside in the last 4 rds. 

Tyler Lockett- yes, he is healthy @TZMarkie, and I’m on board even if Baldwin is healthy. The receiving corps there will have more red zone looks with graham gone. If Baldwin’s health is an issue he could be the #1 target by default. 

A 3rd down specialist- I’ll take someone a little later like ty Montgomery or Chris Thompson. They’re useful bye week fillers you can get in the mid-late portion of the draft. Ppr only. Chris Thompson was actually a top 5 back through 5 weeks last year iirc.

I like Crowder, but he's never had more than 67 receptions in this offense. Gruden likes to spread the ball around. I mean, it could happen, but almost a lock to reach 85 catches is pretty bold imo. That would put him in the top 10 for reception leaders.

I like the McDonald and Lockett picks, but their health is always a huge risk to bet on. Luckily they should both come super cheap.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I love all the Clement talk so far it really is increasing Ajayi's value. I am definitely targeting Ajayi at his ADP. Would love to get Clement too but his value seems a bit overinflated ATM relative to where I would prefer to draft him.

Ajayi ADP is 4.04

Clement ADP is 10.04

 

[Amused to Death]

Very true but Blount did hold the short yardage role, out carried Clement in the red zone 33-13, and out carried him inside the 5 10-4. And did end up scoring 3 rushing tds in the 3 playoff games.

Clement's role is expected to increase this year as well as Ajayi's.  Clement was successful as rookie in a role that he's now getting the first team touches in.  It could change, but for now we're hearing about Clement and Sproles having roles at the goal line.  Nothing yet about Ajayi unless you want to make assumptions.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

That may be true now, but when the games matter, one has to think that Ajayi will be at the goal line a lot unless the offense is trying to be a bit tricky. Ajayi is a hammer and tough to bring down.

Clement is 5'10" and 220 lbs. - he's a big back as well.

 

[Amused to Death]

That may be true now, but when the games matter, one has to think that Ajayi will be at the goal line a lot unless the offense is trying to be a bit tricky. Ajayi is a hammer and tough to bring down.

Heh, wanna talk about tricky - check out what back was in the game for the "Philly Special".

 

[Cobbler1]

Clement's role is expected to increase this year as well as Ajayi's.  Clement was successful as rookie in a role that he's now getting the first team touches in.  I could change, but for now we're hearing about Clement and Sproles having roles at the goal line.  Nothing yet about Ajayi unless you want to make assumptions.

Speculation. Also speculation unless we’re changing OTA red zone work into goal line work or using a goal line fade from the backup qb as proof that Clement has the power role. This horse is dead let’s beat it again when necessary. 

 

[Snorkelson]

I like Crowder, but he's never had more than 67 receptions in this offense. Gruden likes to spread the ball around. I mean, it could happen, but almost a lock to reach 85 catches is pretty bold imo. That would put him in the top 10 for reception leaders.

I like the McDonald and Lockett picks, but their health is always a huge risk to bet on. Luckily they should both come super cheap.

Well, I thought he had a 90 rec season in there but I was wrong. I’m going to stand by my guy here though. If doctson and Richardson are the other options I’m happy with crow in the 8th. Maybe lock for 70 rec with upside.....

 

[TripItUp]

Crowder like Sanders, is in a group of about 20-30 WRs...nothing special.  You're better off targeting other players with higher ceilings.

 

[Amused to Death]

Speculation. Also speculation unless we’re changing OTA red zone work into goal line work or using a goal line fade from the backup qb as proof that Clement has the power role. This horse is dead let’s beat it again when necessary. 

Do what you want, I'm just providing all the info I find.  When I find something about Ajayi in the RZ or GL packages, I'll post it.

 

[Chaka]

Ajayi ADP is 4.04

Clement ADP is 10.04

I know Ajayi has a higher ADP.  I am questioning the value of each player at their ADP.  I think Ajayi has more value as the 20th RB off the board.  They could both exceed ADP but Clement is among the spec/what-if plays. Like lots of other guys his value is in case of injury to Ajayi, I don't see too much stand-alone value in redraft.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I know Ajayi has a higher ADP.  I am questioning the value of each player at their ADP.  I think Ajayi has more value as the 20th RB off the board.  They could both exceed ADP but Clement is among the spec/what-if plays. Like lots of other guys his value is in case of injury to Ajayi, I don't see too much stand-alone value in redraft.

I guess we differ there. Based on my projections Clements outscores Ajayi in ppr leagues - so I obviously see the value way differently.

Even if you aren't that extreme, a view that Clement has no stand-alone value seems highly misguided since the Eagles are a RBBC team and he's the No. 2 back in the rotation and the 3rd down back. From what I'm reading there's a good chance he's the GL back as well. Seems he'd have some stand alone value at least.

 

[Chaka]

I guess we differ there. Based on my projections Clements outscores Ajayi in ppr leagues - so I obviously see the value way differently.

Even if you aren't that extreme, a view that Clement has no stand-alone value seems highly misguided since the Eagles are a RBBC team and he's the No. 2 back in the rotation and the 3rd down back. From what I'm reading there's a good chance he's the GL back as well. Seems he'd have some stand alone value at least.

He may and I might revise my position (it's why I love these threads) but I am having trouble reconciling the public statements from the coaches about Ajayi's workload with the speculation about CC.

 

[Amused to Death]

He may and I might revise my position (it's why I love these threads) but I am having trouble reconciling the public statements from the coaches about Ajayi's workload with the speculation about CC.

Observations are that CC (and Sproles) are getting GL/RZ work.  Speculation is that Ajayi will take them over.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

He may and I might revise my position (it's why I love these threads) but I am having trouble reconciling the public statements from the coaches about Ajayi's workload with the speculation about CC.

You threw out a 250 carries number and attributed it to the coaching staff - do you have a link to that?

All I've read was that they stated Ajayi is the starting back - and I believe that. Last year Blount and then Ajayi were starting backs also but the Eagles rotated guys in constantly.

 

[Chaka]

Observations are that CC (and Sproles) are getting GL/RZ work.  Speculation is that Ajayi will take them over.

You're talking about one day of practice and a report from, how long ago was it?

 

[Chaka]

You threw out a 250 carries number and attributed it to the coaching staff - do you have a link to that?

All I've read was that they stated Ajayi is the starting back - and I believe that. Last year Blount and then Ajayi were starting backs also but the Eagles rotated guys in constantly.

It's in the Ajayi thread, I'll try to dig it up and it was a quote from the RB coach in July IIRC.

 

[zamboni]

Not to beat the Ajayi/Clement dead horse even more, but then you have articles like this:

https://247sports.com/Article/Eagles-Training-Camp-Jay-Ajayi-is-getting-comfortable-in-Eagles-passing-game-120285318/

"We just wanted to get an idea of what Jay could do (last season)," said Eagles head coach Doug Pederson. "Now we've had a full off-season with him and what we're seeing in camp. He's the type of guy that you can keep in there all three downs if you wanted to. But it’s something, too, that he's really been working on his route running from the backfield, working on his hands."

For all the conjecture, there's no telling what will happen until the regular season.

 

[Elevencents]

Omg enough of the slap fight. 

1) Hopkins - No matter the circumstances nothing changes with him. He gets an assload of targets and I think the threat of Watson holding the ball will open things up even more for him. Wouldn’t be surprised if he is #1 this year. 

2) Fitz - Another guy where I know what I’m getting. I can put him in my lineup and simply forget about it. Maybe won’t do as well as last year but from a consistency standpoint you won’t see any duds. You need some rocks in your lineup and he is the rock of the rocks. 

3) Dalvin Cook - Man crush. That’s pretty much it. Was devestated when he got hurt last year. I really like Gordon too so almost hoping one is off the board so I don’t have to choose. Brain says Gordon, heart says Cook. 

4) Marvin Jones - Big game Marvin will go nicely with Fitz. Have always been a Stafford fan and I think their running game may actually be halfway decent for once this year! So Marv should have long ### TD’s and my league we get a bonus. 

5) Jake Butt - I’ve had Kelce on my team since he came into the league and he is slowly creeping up my board to the point I won’t be able to keep him any longer. Butt will be his replacement. A bit biased as a Michigan fan but this kid can catch anything. I think Denver will steadily improve over the next 5-10 years and I like that I can grab him at the end of the draft. 

Kamara is a keeper otherwise he would be on this list if not solely for how much I love watching him play. 

 

[Amused to Death]

You're talking about one day of practice and a report from, how long ago was it?

No, I'm not.  I'm talking about reports out of OTAs and the first week of TC.  Either from beat writers or TV sports guys.  Do what you want, I'm passing along what I read/hear as a homer.  I don't care if you take Ajayi or not.  When I see or hear ANYTHING about Ajayi working in the RZ/GL packages, I'll pass it along.  Please do likewise.

 

[Biabreakable]

Corey Clement: I have him projected to outscore Jay Ajayi in ppr leagues this season. Clement was an UDFA who earned a role last season and should start the year as the team's RB2 in it's RBBC. With Sproles being 35+ his role on offense should be limited. Clement should be the main third down back and he was used heavily in he red-zone last season.

Could you share the numbers that show Clement outscoring Ajayi in the Eagles offense in 2018?

You are already needing to use multiple qualifiers to frame Clement getting some opportunity to produce fantasy points. Sproles may not be done yet, or another guy you don't mention Pumphrey might be able to compete for that role if Sproles can't handle it. That is just 3rd down opportunity, Ajayi is going to have the majority of offensive snaps and therefore the most opportunity. If that is true (seems to be) then Clement is going to need to be ultra efficient with his opportunities.

I would love to hear how he outscores Ajayi in fantasy in 2018.

Seems like a lot of love for a guy who only played 22.6% of the Eagles offensive snaps last year with Sproles and Pumphrey out of the picture.

Clement had 14 red zone looks in the regular season compared to Blounts 33. 

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

I'm certainly not the first to advocate waiting at QB, but I found this stat particularly telling and thought Id share.

http://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/page/TMRDraftDayManifesto18/strategy-risk-management-historical-trends-tips-how-draft-fantasy-football

Did you know that, over the past five years, 52 percent of QBs drafted in the top 10 at the position have finished the season as a top-10 QB (in total points)?

Fifty-two percent! You mean I have to use an early-ish pick on a QB and I have a 1-in-2 chance of it working out? What?

Let me put it another way. You may or may not have had the chance to catch my 100 Facts You Need To Know Before You Draft column, but in there I had these stats:

Last season, 89 times quarterbacks who were NOT drafted in the majority of ESPN leagues finished a week as a top-10 player at the position. In other words, in a 10-team ESPN league, the QBs that start every week ideally would also be the top-10 starters at the position. So 89 times last year, a guy NOT drafted in the majority of leagues was actually worthy of being a starter.

So what about the quarterbacks who WERE drafted in a majority of ESPN leagues? How often did they finish a week as a top-10 option?

Eighty-one times.

Yeah.

 

[Biabreakable]

I love all the Clement talk so far it really is increasing Ajayi's value. I am definitely targeting Ajayi at his ADP. Would love to get Clement too but his value seems a bit overinflated ATM relative to where I would prefer to draft him.

I like it too. Perhaps I will stop questioning it and just roll with it.

Go Corey Clement!!!

 

[mere blitzianity]

I'm certainly not the first to advocate waiting at QB, but I found this stat particularly telling and thought Id share.

http://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/page/TMRDraftDayManifesto18/strategy-risk-management-historical-trends-tips-how-draft-fantasy-football

I recently heard John Hanson say he drafted Blake Bortles as his starter in a 12 team league... 

 

[Stinkin Ref]

QB Tom Brady: Virtually a lock for 4,300+ and 30+ TD even with his age. Still has enough weapons around him to be a force and could be had lower than in past years due to the hype around others like DeShaun Watson. The QB version of Larry Fitzgerald in that you pretty much know what you're getting but he's not as "sexy" as the more mobile counterparts ala Rodgers or Cam.

RB Melvin Gordon: Has quietly put up 997 & 1,105 rushing the past 2 years with 18 TD while running behind pretty bad run blocking lines. Also bumped up from 41 catches to 58 last year and I see little reason why he shouldn't continue to be a great RB "value" pick in relation to the Gurley/Johnson/Bell types.

RB Kenyan Drake: Put up 488 yards (4.88 YPC) with 2 TD and 17 catches over the final 5 games after Ajayi was dealt. Was kind of buried coming out of Alabama but flashed legit talent and I think he has a chance to challenge 1,000 yards and 40-50 catches. Frank Gore's been trending downward in YPC the past 3 years and I think the backfield is Drake's to lose. A bit more of a boom/bust but has Clinton Portis-level potential IMO.

WR Adam Thielen: Actually exploded last year with a lower catch rate (75% down to 64.1%) yet still averaged 14.0 YPR. Legitimate in FF now and has potential to put up Top 5 numbers if the TDs can fall into place.

WR Amari Cooper: Kind of under the radar after a very down season but still averaged 14.2 YPR and had a career high 7 TD. The #1 on an offense that can throw the ball and Gruden has proven he can mold 1,000 WRs in his sleep even on mediocre teams.

I'm not sure Drake is the real deal....Ballage is a beast...I'll roll the dice on the rookie they just drafted...

1/4+ of Coopers stats across the board came in one monster game against KC....he was REALLY REALLY bad most of the year last year....kind of guy that just killed you cause you kept starting him....

 

[Payne]

Crowder like Sanders, is in a group of about 20-30 WRs...nothing special.  You're better off targeting other players with higher ceilings.

I think Crowder has "upside" compared to his ADP. He is going to be targeted a lot. 

 

[Payne]

Crowder like Sanders, is in a group of about 20-30 WRs...nothing special.  You're better off targeting other players with higher ceilings.

Double post

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Could you share the numbers that show Clement outscoring Ajayi in the Eagles offense in 2018?

You are already needing to use multiple qualifiers to frame Clement getting some opportunity to produce fantasy points. Sproles may not be done yet, or another guy you don't mention Pumphrey might be able to compete for that role if Sproles can't handle it. That is just 3rd down opportunity, Ajayi is going to have the majority of offensive snaps and therefore the most opportunity. If that is true (seems to be) then Clement is going to need to be ultra efficient with his opportunities.

I would love to hear how he outscores Ajayi in fantasy in 2018.

Seems like a lot of love for a guy who only played 22.6% of the Eagles offensive snaps last year with Sproles and Pumphrey out of the picture.

Clement had 14 red zone looks in the regular season compared to Blounts 33. 

I did not use any qualifiers - I suppose that's in reference to Sproles but he is 35. He will see time in the offense though, sure. Pumprey, meh. He showed last preseason he's overmatched at the NFL level at his size and was put on IR with a phantom injury. I'm not sure he makes the team.

Per my projections in ppr Clement outscores Ajayi - that's just my opinion and it surely may turn out wrong. My projections are not always correct. But since you asked I will show my work (my guess is you'll say I'm way too low on Ajayi and too high on Clement - and that's fine). I know you're a big Ajayi fan but you seem to take it personally - this is just a fantasy football message board where we share our opinions.

Clement:  155 carries for 715 yards 5 rushing TDs; 41 catches for 288 yards 3 TDs = 189.3 fantasy points

Ajayi: 200 carries for 888 yards 7 rushing TDs; 28 receptions for 183 yards = 179.9 fantasy points

 

[RedBird33]

I hate focusing on a given player or players during a draft but instead look at groupings of players as must haves.

For example, there is a significant drop off after the top tier of TEs, so

1) I "must have" a tier 1 TE.

I think there is much more volatility in the RB ranks than the WR ranks so

2) I "must have" four RBs that are legitimate weekly fantasy starters.

On WRs, I trust the top rankings more, so 

3) I "must have" a top ten WR

On QBs, I think everyone is getting a little too excited about the young QBs... I would prefer to wait so therefore 

4) I "must have" two entrenched veteran starting QB's

Finally, because of the prevalence of RBBC and the volatility of the RB position, I want lottery tickets at this position and hope one of them is the next Kamara so

5)  I "must have" the majority of my bench dedicated to the RB position.  (The depth of the WR position this year tells me that there will be fine WR on the waiver wire all year)

Given these "must haves" if I draft early I will probably get the following in a 15 round draft:

1.  Top 5 RB

2.  Gronk (if there) or best WR available.

3.  Kelce/Best remaining WR (depending on what I got in the second... I hate that Henry is gone... I think of him as top tier with these two and could have got him in the 5th.)

4.  RB

5.  RB

6.  RB

7.  Matt Ryan

8.  WR

9.  WR

10.  Andy Dalton (great QB2 for current APR)

11.  WR

12.  RB

13.  TE

14.  K

15.  DEF

If I draft late it would be

1.  WR

2.  Gronk

3.  RB

4.  RB

5.  RB

6.  RB

and the rest the same as above.

Gold!!

 

[Biabreakable]

I did not use any qualifiers - I suppose that's in reference to Sproles but he is 35. He will see time in the offense though, sure. Pumprey, meh. He showed last preseason he's overmatched at the NFL level at his size and was put on IR with a phantom injury. I'm not sure he makes the team.

Per my projections in ppr Clement outscores Ajayi - that's just my opinion and it surely may turn out wrong. My projections are not always correct. But since you asked I will show my work (my guess is you'll say I'm way too low on Ajayi and too high on Clement - and that's fine). I know you're a big Ajayi fan but you seem to take it personally - this is just a fantasy football message board where we share our opinions.

Clement:  155 carries for 715 yards 5 rushing TDs; 41 catches for 288 yards 3 TDs = 189.3 fantasy points

Ajayi: 200 carries for 888 yards 7 rushing TDs; 28 receptions for 183 yards = 179.9 fantasy points

Thanks.

I asked out of genuine curiosity as it was something hard for me to envision.

Those numbers don't seem entirely unreasonable to me, you are not increasing Clements TD that much from last season, even though you are expecting a lot more touches for him. Doubling the rushing attempts (74) and quadrupling the receptions (10) from last season. Is Clement also going to double the snaps (256) he played last season? I would think he would have to for that amount of volume to be able to happen. Your projections looks like you think it will be close to a 50/50 time share between Clement and Ajayi with not many touches from other Eagles RB.

No I don't agree, but thats ok. At least I can see where your coming from a bit better now.

 

[ScottNorwood]

Cooper Kupp

Jordan Reed

Kenny Golladay

Eli Manning

Jay Ajayi

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

1. Drew Brees. I get it - the Saints play defense now. They run a lot. He still had a great season, and I think his TD numbers are bound to rise to the 35-40 range making him a stellar value given his ADP.  If I reach for a QB in the 5-6 round. he’ll be the one. 

2. McKinnon going at the middle-end of the 2nd is highway robbery. Shannahan turned Freeman into a rushing/receiving stud, and I see a top 4 RB performance coming the way the Niners offense is shaping up. Because of his stellar receiving ability he’s essentially game-flow proof, and he’s got a cheap handcuff who isn’t a big threat to carries. 

3. Pierre Garçon - he’s at an ADP I’d expect given his missed time, but IMO he’ll pay dividends as a WR3/4 on your roster. If healthy he’s a top 20 PPR guy. Garapolo did so much with underwhealming receivers, he’s gonna looove throwing to Pierre. 100 receptions wouldn’t shock me, but I’ll project 85/950/7 for the frenchman. 

4. Randal Cobb - for the ADP I love him as a WR3 & will be locking him up where I can. 

5. Dalvin Cook - didn’t work out for me last year, but ACLs are tough to predict. His performance was eye popping when he played, and the Vikings should be even more explosive on offense to open even more holes. And now McKinnon’s gone to SF. Cook isn’t wearing a brace, and has said he’s 100% & doesn’t intend to. We’ll see how he looks, but enough time since the injury & he’s a hard worker. I wouldn’t be shocked by a top 5 RB performance at the 1.10-2.04 range. I’d easily take him over Hunt at the ADP and y’all know I have man-love for Hunt   (just not in that crowded backfield & with an unknown at QB). 

 

[Chaka]

Cooper Kupp

Jordan Reed

Kenny Golladay

Eli Manning

Jay Ajayi

 

[Chaka]

3. Pierre Garçon - he’s at an ADP I’d expect given his missed time, but IMO he’ll pay dividends as a WR3/4 on your roster. If healthy he’s a top 20 PPR guy. Garapolo did so much with underwhealming receivers, he’s gonna looove throwing to Pierre. 100 receptions wouldn’t shock me, but I’ll project 85/950/7 for the frenchman. 

Not sure about this one. He was getting a little over eight targets/game last year but... Sounds like Pettis is going to be a factor sooner rather than later. Anyone have a feel for Shanahan restricting rookies ala John Fox? He upped Breida's PT as the season wore on.

I am so think Goodwin will take a jump in year two.

Not to mention Kittle.

Garcon will probably (possibly?) lead the team in targets but I think he is really capped by the youngsters. Maybe 800 yards and 5 TDs and that may be his upside.