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WR Puka Nacua LAR (1 Viewer)

I was a doubter, but I'm fully convinced at this point (needless to say). My question is, whenever someone breaks out instantly like this, what clues might one have picked up on? If this dude has ridiculous superhuman talent, was it displayed in college? If so, why no hype? If not, why didn't his extreme level of talent show up in college? Scheme can have a lot to do with it, surely.
He was good in college, but had an injury plagued last year, reportedly.

I was on him because of the Matt Waldman RSP - I noticed Waldman had Puka below the hyped early NFL drafted rookies, but above all the rest

6th round in one 16-team dynasty league, 5th in the next (4 mutual team owners so I had to “reach” by a round.

Thank you, RSP. The Puka pick made it worth every Penny and then some. :wub:

But yeah - scheme, and a coach with a plan to use a player, can also have a lot to do with predicting future success.

Kudos to the Rams for seeing him and using him correctly
Never even heard of this RSP thing, but will check this out next year.
 
I was a doubter, but I'm fully convinced at this point (needless to say). My question is, whenever someone breaks out instantly like this, what clues might one have picked up on? If this dude has ridiculous superhuman talent, was it displayed in college? If so, why no hype? If not, why didn't his extreme level of talent show up in college? Scheme can have a lot to do with it, surely.
I picked him up as a free agent on May 4th… right after the rookie draft in my dynasty league and jokingly posted on the message board “Puka = championship!” I’d like to say I knew something everyone else didn’t but it was blind luck. I knew ZERO about him… But the reason I did pick him up? Situation. I’m a big situation/opportunity guy. I’ve never been a fan of Van Jefferson So I didn’t see any reason Puka couldn’t be the #2 WR for the Rams if he had any talent at all. So to me that was worth the roster spot To take a chance on him.

edited to add… this is also how I got McLauren as a rookie in 2019. I did draft him in the 3rd round but that was again because I looked at the Washington WR room at that point and thought to myself, there’s no reason he shouldn’t become the #2 WR there.
 
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Never even heard of this RSP thing, but will check this out next year.
He nailed Mahomes too, but that was before my time with the RSP unfortunately

FWIW Waldman was also spot on with ARich’s ability. Health isn’t really a reason to ding him. ARich was miles more ready for the NFL than most of the experts believed.
 
I was a doubter, but I'm fully convinced at this point (needless to say). My question is, whenever someone breaks out instantly like this, what clues might one have picked up on? If this dude has ridiculous superhuman talent, was it displayed in college? If so, why no hype? If not, why didn't his extreme level of talent show up in college? Scheme can have a lot to do with it, surely.
He was good in college, but had an injury plagued last year, reportedly.

I was on him because of the Matt Waldman RSP - I noticed Waldman had Puka below the hyped early NFL drafted rookies, but above all the rest

6th round in one 16-team dynasty league, 5th in the next (4 mutual team owners so I had to “reach” by a round.

Thank you, RSP. The Puka pick made it worth every Penny and then some. :wub:

But yeah - scheme, and a coach with a plan to use a player, can also have a lot to do with predicting future success.

Kudos to the Rams for seeing him and using him correctly
Never even heard of this RSP thing, but will check this out next year.
Linky

He’s also a great follow on the former bird app.
 
I was a doubter, but I'm fully convinced at this point (needless to say). My question is, whenever someone breaks out instantly like this, what clues might one have picked up on? If this dude has ridiculous superhuman talent, was it displayed in college? If so, why no hype? If not, why didn't his extreme level of talent show up in college? Scheme can have a lot to do with it, surely.
He was good in college, but had an injury plagued last year, reportedly.

I was on him because of the Matt Waldman RSP - I noticed Waldman had Puka below the hyped early NFL drafted rookies, but above all the rest

6th round in one 16-team dynasty league, 5th in the next (4 mutual team owners so I had to “reach” by a round.

Thank you, RSP. The Puka pick made it worth every Penny and then some. :wub:

But yeah - scheme, and a coach with a plan to use a player, can also have a lot to do with predicting future success.

Kudos to the Rams for seeing him and using him correctly

May be a dumb question, but what is RSP?
 
I was a doubter, but I'm fully convinced at this point (needless to say). My question is, whenever someone breaks out instantly like this, what clues might one have picked up on? If this dude has ridiculous superhuman talent, was it displayed in college? If so, why no hype? If not, why didn't his extreme level of talent show up in college? Scheme can have a lot to do with it, surely.
He was good in college, but had an injury plagued last year, reportedly.

I was on him because of the Matt Waldman RSP - I noticed Waldman had Puka below the hyped early NFL drafted rookies, but above all the rest

6th round in one 16-team dynasty league, 5th in the next (4 mutual team owners so I had to “reach” by a round.

Thank you, RSP. The Puka pick made it worth every Penny and then some. :wub:

But yeah - scheme, and a coach with a plan to use a player, can also have a lot to do with predicting future success.

Kudos to the Rams for seeing him and using him correctly

May be a dumb question, but what is RSP?

Nevermind, I see you answered this above.
 
I was a doubter, but I'm fully convinced at this point (needless to say). My question is, whenever someone breaks out instantly like this, what clues might one have picked up on? If this dude has ridiculous superhuman talent, was it displayed in college? If so, why no hype? If not, why didn't his extreme level of talent show up in college? Scheme can have a lot to do with it, surely.
He was good in college, but had an injury plagued last year, reportedly.

I was on him because of the Matt Waldman RSP - I noticed Waldman had Puka below the hyped early NFL drafted rookies, but above all the rest

6th round in one 16-team dynasty league, 5th in the next (4 mutual team owners so I had to “reach” by a round.

Thank you, RSP. The Puka pick made it worth every Penny and then some. :wub:

But yeah - scheme, and a coach with a plan to use a player, can also have a lot to do with predicting future success.

Kudos to the Rams for seeing him and using him correctly
The FBG preseason camp reports on Puka were also very positive, so he was on my radar from that (as well as Waldman, of course).
 
I was a doubter, but I'm fully convinced at this point (needless to say). My question is, whenever someone breaks out instantly like this, what clues might one have picked up on? If this dude has ridiculous superhuman talent, was it displayed in college? If so, why no hype? If not, why didn't his extreme level of talent show up in college? Scheme can have a lot to do with it, surely.
He was good in college, but had an injury plagued last year, reportedly.

I was on him because of the Matt Waldman RSP - I noticed Waldman had Puka below the hyped early NFL drafted rookies, but above all the rest

6th round in one 16-team dynasty league, 5th in the next (4 mutual team owners so I had to “reach” by a round.

Thank you, RSP. The Puka pick made it worth every Penny and then some. :wub:

But yeah - scheme, and a coach with a plan to use a player, can also have a lot to do with predicting future success.

Kudos to the Rams for seeing him and using him correctly
The FBG preseason camp reports on Puka were also very positive, so he was on my radar from that (as well as Waldman, of course).
Yeah, I mean McVay wasn’t shy about the effusive praise of Nakua in preseason, especially when Kupp went down.

It’s funny - sometimes coaches telegraph the move, but everyone thinks they’re being cagey / preseason hype blah blah. And most of the time that skepticism is the right call.

This time it was legit. Puka is the truth out there. No denying it.

I wish I’d invested in redraft. Didn’t see anything like this coming.
 
I was a doubter, but I'm fully convinced at this point (needless to say). My question is, whenever someone breaks out instantly like this, what clues might one have picked up on? If this dude has ridiculous superhuman talent, was it displayed in college? If so, why no hype? If not, why didn't his extreme level of talent show up in college? Scheme can have a lot to do with it, surely.
I say this in no way facetiously; your eyes. Trust your eyes. And be wiling to change your opinion when presented with new information. People put a lot of time into scouting, watching tape, running numbers, following metrics and trends.... and then when what is happening right before their eyes doesn't agree with it, they spend heaps and heaps of effort to find all the reasons it's a "fluke" and next to none rethinking their original hypothesis; next to 0 consideration that they were wrong. That's why people miss on players like this time and time again. I do too. I think that's one of the biggest take home points.

On a smaller but also important note; people are way too frugal with their FAAB. Every year we see that the majority of league-winning type waiver pick ups are made during the first 3 weeks. Instead they want to save their money till week 11 to pick up a back up RB who will start for one game and maybe if they are lucky get them 8 points. Those pickups are important if it's between a win and a loss. But any player doing what Puka did was obviously worth dumping 50%+ on. If it misses, it misses. But if it hits, you have a leg up on the rest of the league for the remainder of the year. This is also partially because people refuse to allow "just a few games" to deter them from the opinions they formed all off-season. What they fail to consider is that even though it's a small amount of information, the weight it carries is 10x that of padless practices, coach hyperbole, and training camp fluff blurbs mostly written by homer journalists.

The best thing to do is just not make the same, or at least as many of the same, mistakes again next season. That's what I try for at least. And yet I still wound up drafting Kyle Pitts. And then dropping him after 4 weeks of garbo. We are fallible lol.
 
I think we're past the point of figuring out whether he was a fluke or reliant on Kupp being out. At this point the question is how high do we rank him?

KeepTradeCut (crowd sourced) has him a dynasty WR11 now. FBG rankings have him nowhere near that, closer to 20. Are the crowds overreacting or are the analysts too slow?

I'm more inclined to side with the crowd on this one and get in early before he's solidified as a 22 year old Cooper Kupp in terms of rankings. I see guys like Olave and Lamb ahead of him and I think I'd take him over those guys straight up at this point. Am I crazy?

EDIT: ARSB is dynasty WR3 right now. Honestly I'm not sure I wouldn't prefer Puka over him.
 
I was a doubter, but I'm fully convinced at this point (needless to say). My question is, whenever someone breaks out instantly like this, what clues might one have picked up on? If this dude has ridiculous superhuman talent, was it displayed in college? If so, why no hype? If not, why didn't his extreme level of talent show up in college? Scheme can have a lot to do with it, surely.
I say this in no way facetiously; your eyes. Trust your eyes. And be wiling to change your opinion when presented with new information. People put a lot of time into scouting, watching tape, running numbers, following metrics and trends.... and then when what is happening right before their eyes doesn't agree with it, they spend heaps and heaps of effort to find all the reasons it's a "fluke" and next to none rethinking their original hypothesis; next to 0 consideration that they were wrong. That's why people miss on players like this time and time again. I do too. I think that's one of the biggest take home points.

We don't always get to see the guys we draft/claim for our teams, but I really like the point of "trust the eyes". Like last year with Christian Watson. I claimed him after that huge 3 TD breakout game. It seemed fluky, but I got to see him play the next game. The guy was just so fast ... could take any catch to the endzone at any time. Instead of selling high I rode him.

Puka's similar. I co-manage a team with a friend and we picked up Puka way back when we could. Never had a chance to see him play, though the numbers have been great. We need help at RB and were entertaining offers for Puka (guys like Aaron Jones and Pacheco were being offered). Had a chance to see him play live for the first time this weekend. My friend texts me: "Puka's a beast! We're not selling!" Or at least if we were selling we want a no doubter RB1.
 
I think we're past the point of figuring out whether he was a fluke or reliant on Kupp being out. At this point the question is how high do we rank him?

KeepTradeCut (crowd sourced) has him a dynasty WR11 now. FBG rankings have him nowhere near that, closer to 20. Are the crowds overreacting or are the analysts too slow?

I'm more inclined to side with the crowd on this one and get in early before he's solidified as a 22 year old Cooper Kupp in terms of rankings. I see guys like Olave and Lamb ahead of him and I think I'd take him over those guys straight up at this point. Am I crazy?

EDIT: ARSB is dynasty WR3 right now. Honestly I'm not sure I wouldn't prefer Puka over him.
I haven't really done mid-season rerankings looking forward myself, but I'd wager I'd have him somewhere between those two, maybe around WR13/14. I don't think it's crazy to have him ahead of Olave and Lamb at this point. I'd definitely still have ARSB over him though. Kinda crazy he's WR3 to me though too. I guess some of the old guard like Hill and Diggs are dropping due to age. Picking nits, but I do wonder how much Stafford adds into the equation. It felt semi surprising he didn't retire this offseason with the neck issues and his wife being pretty outspoken about his health. But could also say, how many WRs don't also have big question marks like that. I probably wouldn't be selling outside of a godfather offer, because he's a player you use to win or just as easily, use to rebuild.
 
I see guys like Olave and Lamb ahead of him and I think I'd take him over those guys straight up at this point. Am I crazy?
I like him more than Olave, but not as much as Lamb.

Mostly this is situational. The Saints offense is a hot mess. Dallas looks competent at times and IMO they’re going to turn Lamb loose ROS.

Puka is right there because he’s in a situation where he’s got the trust of his coach, a QB with a big arm, RAC ability, and opportunity to shine with an alpha drawing coverage. Added bonus that we’ve seen Puka do it against top coverage, so when Kupp hangs em up, Puka seems like the heir apparent.

In one 16-team league I have Lamb, AJB, & Puka as my top 3 WR. In another I’ve got AJB, ARSB & Puka.

Feels pretty solid, I gotta admit. I do have some concern about the hits he’s taking, but he seems built to take them.
 
I see guys like Olave and Lamb ahead of him and I think I'd take him over those guys straight up at this point. Am I crazy?
I like him more than Olave, but not as much as Lamb.

Mostly this is situational. The Saints offense is a hot mess. Dallas looks competent at times and IMO they’re going to turn Lamb loose ROS.

Puka is right there because he’s in a situation where he’s got the trust of his coach, a QB with a big arm, RAC ability, and opportunity to shine with an alpha drawing coverage. Added bonus that we’ve seen Puka do it against top coverage, so when Kupp hangs em up, Puka seems like the heir apparent.

In one 16-team league I have Lamb, AJB, & Puka as my top 3 WR. In another I’ve got AJB, ARSB & Puka.

Feels pretty solid, I gotta admit. I do have some concern about the hits he’s taking, but he seems built to take them.

I like your take.
 
I’ve been starting Stafford since Watkins went down, so I’ve been looking for QB help

I’ve just been offered Bijan and Cousins for him straight up

I’m crazy for not taking this right?

Other WR(play 3)
Waddle
Higgins
Collins
Lockett
Dotson
 
I’ve been starting Stafford since Watkins went down, so I’ve been looking for QB help

I’ve just been offered Bijan and Cousins for him straight up

I’m crazy for not taking this right?

Other WR(play 3)
Waddle
Higgins
Collins
Lockett
Dotson
I pull the trigger on that immediately. You have good WR depth. Higgins will return to form going forward.
 
I’ve been starting Stafford since Watkins went down, so I’ve been looking for QB help

I’ve just been offered Bijan and Cousins for him straight up

I’m crazy for not taking this right?

Other WR(play 3)
Waddle
Higgins
Collins
Lockett
Dotson
I read that as you being offered Bijan and Cousins for Stafford and was so confused.
 
I wonder how often a big game for a rookie’s debut translates into a quality FF starter during their first year?

I remember Anquan Boldin’s 10 catches for 217 yard in his first game in 2003 and how he had a great season. I passed on him at the time.

So I asked chatGPT to search for all rookie WRs with eight or more catches in their first game and got seven instances including one from a RB.

As of my last update in January 2022, several rookie wide receivers had 8 or more receptions in their NFL debuts. Here are some of them:
  1. Earl Cooper (1980) - San Francisco 49ers: 12 receptions. (Note: While Cooper was primarily a running back, he caught these passes in his debut.)
  2. Anquan Boldin (2003) - Arizona Cardinals: 10 receptions.
  3. Terry McLaurin (2019) - Washington Redskins: 9 receptions.
  4. DeAndre Hopkins (2013) - Houston Texans: 8 receptions.
  5. Kenny Golladay (2017) - Detroit Lions: 8 receptions.
  6. Michael Thomas (2016) - New Orleans Saints: 8 receptions.
  7. Eddie Royal (2008) - Denver Broncos: 8 receptions.

Here are their rookie stats…
  1. Earl Cooper (1980, San Francisco 49ers):
    • Receptions: 83
    • Receiving Yards: 567
    • Receiving Touchdowns: 4 (Note: These stats blend receiving with his primary role as a running back)
  2. Anquan Boldin (2003, Arizona Cardinals):
    • Receptions: 101
    • Receiving Yards: 1,377
    • Receiving Touchdowns: 8
  3. Terry McLaurin (2019, Washington Redskins):
    • Receptions: 58
    • Receiving Yards: 919
    • Receiving Touchdowns: 7
  4. DeAndre Hopkins (2013, Houston Texans):
    • Receptions: 52
    • Receiving Yards: 802
    • Receiving Touchdowns: 2
  5. Kenny Golladay (2017, Detroit Lions):
    • Receptions: 28
    • Receiving Yards: 477
    • Receiving Touchdowns: 3
  6. Michael Thomas (2016, New Orleans Saints):
    • Receptions: 92
    • Receiving Yards: 1,137
    • Receiving Touchdowns: 9
  7. Eddie Royal (2008, Denver Broncos):
    • Receptions: 91
    • Receiving Yards: 980
    • Receiving Touchdowns: 5
From purely a statistical perspective, presuming this is a good sample and the right cutoff of eight catches in a rookie debut, then it could be argued that there is a reasonable possibility that Nacua will put up comparable numbers to his predecessors. IF I accept this argument (and I do), then it looks like Nacua is a pretty good bet to pickup on waivers.

So the next question is…how much to bid out of $100 in a FAAB waiver system?
This was the post after week one that told me all I needed to know. Puka continues (barring injury) to be on the same glidepath as those stated above. He's looking like a Boldin, F1, Mike thomas finish.
 
Don't like "swelling in the knee" report. Did he get hit in the knee during the last game? Hopefully just a bruise and a little sore.
 
Don't like "swelling in the knee" report. Did he get hit in the knee during the last game? Hopefully just a bruise and a little sore.
He got lit up pretty good a couple times. One of the hits he seemed to get up woozy, but didn't notice anything with any of his other catches that I can remember.
 
I’ve been starting Stafford since Watkins went down, so I’ve been looking for QB help

I’ve just been offered Bijan and Cousins for him straight up

I’m crazy for not taking this right?

Other WR(play 3)
Waddle
Higgins
Collins
Lockett
Dotson
I pull the trigger on that immediately. You have good WR depth. Higgins will return to form going forward.
Yikes...hopefully he didn't see your reply. Always sucks trading (both sides) when a guy gets lost for the season immediately thereafter.
 
I’ve been starting Stafford since Watkins went down, so I’ve been looking for QB help

I’ve just been offered Bijan and Cousins for him straight up

I’m crazy for not taking this right?

Other WR(play 3)
Waddle
Higgins
Collins
Lockett
Dotson
K wait. Someone offered you Bijan for Puka?
 
I’ve been starting Stafford since Watkins went down, so I’ve been looking for QB help

I’ve just been offered Bijan and Cousins for him straight up

I’m crazy for not taking this right?

Other WR(play 3)
Waddle
Higgins
Collins
Lockett
Dotson
K wait. Someone offered you Bijan for Puka
Things change fast in ff


Traded ended up being
Cousins
McLaurin

for

Waddle

And of course both Stafford and Cousins went down.
 
I’ve been starting Stafford since Watkins went down, so I’ve been looking for QB help

I’ve just been offered Bijan and Cousins for him straight up

I’m crazy for not taking this right?

Other WR(play 3)
Waddle
Higgins
Collins
Lockett
Dotson
K wait. Someone offered you Bijan for Puka
Things change fast in ff


Traded ended up being
Cousins
McLaurin

for

Waddle

And of course both Stafford and Cousins went down.
just shocked bijan was part of it and you didn't grab it.
 
Sitting fir Amari Cooper. Don’t feel great about it…losing qbs for both Puka and Addison this past week was no bueno. And as a Packers fan, healthier Puka with Stafford would tear them apart.
 
Sitting fir Amari Cooper. Don’t feel great about it…losing qbs for both Puka and Addison this past week was no bueno. And as a Packers fan, healthier Puka with Stafford would tear them apart.
Same boat with Puka and Addison, but with ARSB and Jeudy on bye I pretty much am rolling with both. Flexing Gabe Davis and sitting Josh Palmer. And no, I don't feel good about it.
 
I had to pick two between Puka, Pickens and Cooper. Pickens had a great matchup and crapped the bed. Man I regret that now. But I’ll be starting Cooper over Nakua. Have to go for upside with Pickens essentially getting me a zero and I’m playing the Hill owner…
 
I’ve been starting Stafford since Watkins went down, so I’ve been looking for QB help

I’ve just been offered Bijan and Cousins for him straight up

I’m crazy for not taking this right?

Other WR(play 3)
Waddle
Higgins
Collins
Lockett
Dotson
K wait. Someone offered you Bijan for Puka
Things change fast in ff


Traded ended up being
Cousins
McLaurin

for

Waddle

And of course both Stafford and Cousins went down.
just shocked bijan was part of it and you didn't grab it.
depends what type of league you are looking at. in redraft I wouldnt take Bijan either. the way he is currently being used I'd probably take a pass for this year.

in keeper/dynasty Id be a lot more likely to take a good look at the offer.

just my 2 cents worth.
 
I'm more hesitant about Puka's knee than who's beind center. Puka is a volume guy, dink and dunk short yardage, and I think that's decently QB proof. Maybe Stafford was getting it into smaller windows that Rypien can't, but that's yet to be seen. If Puka is starting, I'm starting him.
 

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