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WR Jarvis Landry, Saints (1 Viewer)

I've never been a fan of Landry for reasons that aren't worth rehashing.

But the target share of WR1s in offenses run by Haley really sticks out..

2017 - Antonio Brown - 28.2%

2016 - Antonio Brown - 26.5%

2015 - Antonio Brown - 33.3%

2014 - Antonio Brown - 30.5%

2013 - Antonio Brown - 29.2%

2012 - Mike Wallace - 20.9%

2011 - Dwayne Bowe - 28.7%

2010 - Dwayne Bowe - 29.0%

2009 - Dwayne Bowe - 16.8%

2008 - Larry Fitzgerald - 24.9%

2007- Larry Fitzgerald - 28.6%

Obviously Landry isn't the caliber player Fitz or Brown are but I thought what Haley said to Landry during the latest episode of Hard Knocks was pretty telling. Haley told Landry to take Callaway under his wing and that it was "something Larry would do." From that and other less subtle cues it's kind of obvious that Landry is going to be a go-to receiver on the team this year (could get messy if Bryant signs I suppose). I mean, Gordon isn't in camp still, Callaway is smoking blunts, Riggins is sub-par and Njoku can't catch. It's a shame that the second best receiver on the team, Duke, excels in the same area of the field where Landry excels but I think they can both do well in Haley's offense. The consensus seems(seemed?) to be that Landry's annual 160 target total would see a marked reduction this year but I don't think that will be the case. 

 
I've never been a fan of Landry for reasons that aren't worth rehashing.

But the target share of WR1s in offenses run by Haley really sticks out..
Great stuff here.  Average is right at 27%.  Last few years the Browns have had 574, 567, and 609 attempts - average of 583.  27% of that is 157.  Pretty much what he had last year.  110+ catches again isn't ridiculous. 

 
Great stuff here.  Average is right at 27%.  Last few years the Browns have had 574, 567, and 609 attempts - average of 583.  27% of that is 157.  Pretty much what he had last year.  110+ catches again isn't ridiculous. 
It's highly unlikely Cleveland passes more than 500 times. Tyrod has a propensity for tucking it. The most passing attempts he's had is about 460. Plus the Brownies were historically bad the past few seasons, which may not continue. The defense is pretty solid in fact. And we will never confuse Hue Jackson for Sean Payton.

 
It's highly unlikely Cleveland passes more than 500 times. Tyrod has a propensity for tucking it. The most passing attempts he's had is about 460. Plus the Brownies were historically bad the past few seasons, which may not continue. The defense is pretty solid in fact. And we will never confuse Hue Jackson for Sean Payton.
This is a really good point, Haley has never worked with a mobile threat like Tyrod. The closest is Cassel in KC from 09-11 and Cassel's attempts prorate to 477, 477 and 528 in those seasons. Let's say, best case scenario, Tyrod attempts 500 passes and Landry commands a 27% market share. That'd be around 135 targets.

You also have to factor whether or not Tyrod plays a full season and how often CLE is playing from behind but this changes my outlook entirely.

 
This is a really good point, Haley has never worked with a mobile threat like Tyrod. The closest is Cassel in KC from 09-11 and Cassel's attempts prorate to 477, 477 and 528 in those seasons. Let's say, best case scenario, Tyrod attempts 500 passes and Landry commands a 27% market share. That'd be around 135 targets.

You also have to factor whether or not Tyrod plays a full season and how often CLE is playing from behind but this changes my outlook entirely.
Well for another thing, 27 percent is pretty hefty. It's tough to count on witt Njoku, maybe Gordon, and Duke Johnson in competition. It's not out of the realm, but it's in Antonio Brown territory. I think it's a little safer to count on about 24. 

 
cloppbeast said:
Well for another thing, 27 percent is pretty hefty. It's tough to count on witt Njoku, maybe Gordon, and Duke Johnson in competition. It's not out of the realm, but it's in Antonio Brown territory. I think it's a little safer to count on about 24.
Yea that's why I qualified it with "best case scenario". I was projecting a range of 25-27% but needless to say I'm much less enamored with him after your post. I really don't think much of Njoku or Gordon but there's no getting around Tyrod's tendencies.

Good thing I haven't drafted yet and my positions are completely malleable. 

 
what offsets the ability of TT to take off and run is the young and still up-n-coming defense which will almost ALWAYS have cleveland playing from behind , in every game. this IS the Brownies we're talking about here..they won't shed the need to pass more and more just because TT takes off a bit more than the other guy did..Cleveland fans want to see their shiny new toy on the field, so Mayfield will get the start sooner rather than later.probably opening day starter, if not by week 3. the rushing offense seems a patchwork at best, with Hyde and Chubb looking like neither is the guy..Duke Johnson has a very real chance to see his stats IMPROVE from last season..he's going to be LeVeon Bell lite..he's the most versatile RB of the bunch and Haley is just as likely to just let him handle the duties than to rotate Hyde on 1st/2nd downs and Duke as a 3rd down specialist..you're more likely to see DJ take the lion's share of carries, recs, and improve on past numbers he's posted. Landry is in line for at least at least 110 recs, maybe he increases the yards a bit, but the Browns are probably moving on from Gordon, Callaway might be suspended...Landry is the defacto #1 WR in cleveland, he's going to see a lot of action this year, much more than in Miami because the Browns are still suffering growing pains as their young defense develops.they're not going to be a top unit, they're still going to give up a lot of rushing yards, passing yard.thus more passing from the offense to stay in games..but Landry hasn't played with a team as bad as this, it screams high upside  in garbage time recs, etc..lets not put the cart before the horse here..the Browns aren't headed to the playoffs, they won't win 6 games in 2018.but they will have a much more productive offense under Haley!

 
Yea that's why I qualified it with "best case scenario". I was projecting a range of 25-27% but needless to say I'm much less enamored with him after your post. I really don't think much of Njoku or Gordon but there's no getting around Tyrod's tendencies.

Good thing I haven't drafted yet and my positions are completely malleable. 
Jarvis makes a good candidate for target after next year, pending the rookie from Oklahoma's ascension at quarterback. Not that Tyrod is a bad QB, but he doesn't help wide receivers put up stats. He might be worse than Alex Smith even. 

 
SameSongNDance said:
This is a really good point, Haley has never worked with a mobile threat like Tyrod. The closest is Cassel in KC from 09-11 and Cassel's attempts prorate to 477, 477 and 528 in those seasons. Let's say, best case scenario, Tyrod attempts 500 passes and Landry commands a 27% market share. That'd be around 135 targets.

You also have to factor whether or not Tyrod plays a full season and how often CLE is playing from behind but this changes my outlook entirely.
Yeah I was all in as far as Landry making a smooth transition with Cleveland and similar volume of targets he was getting with the Dolphins.

Taylor is a different QB however, so once that was brought to my attention, it changed my perspective as well.

For a median range projection for Landry I am thinking 120 targets. Which would likely be 24% of 500 targets. If the pass attempts are actually lower than 500 I think Landry can still get 120 based on the market share percentages you looked at in previous post, and also just Landry being such a reliable WR I think his targets will always be high. 

Hue Jackson has 3 good RB on the team now and I would expect run/pass distribution to be very balanced, just skewed a bit more towards the pass as the Browns likely will be losing a lot of the time. Forcing him to throw the ball more. Maybe Hue is hands off with the offense though and it is Todd Haleys call. That is something I am not sure about, and would like to learn more.

Mayfield is doing well from what I have heard and I could see him starting the second half of the season, which might change the outlook as far as total passing attempts, but rookies tend to be on the low side for passing attempts too in their rookies seasons, so I am not necessarily seeing that changing things in terms of overall opportunity for Landry.

I think Landrys presence hurts Duke Johnsons opportunities, as they are used in similar way. A large percentage of Landrys targets with the Dolphins are within the 3 yards of the LOS. Some of Johnsons targets were him running routes from the slot.

 
So why do people think that Tyrod Taylor can't/won't throw more than 500 passes? Will his arm fall off?
No Taylors arm is fine. It is Taylors conservative nature to pull down the ball and run if he doesn't like what he sees though.

2015 Taylor played in 14 games 380 pass attempts.

2016 Taylor played in 15 games 436 pass attempts.

2017 Taylor played in 15 games 420 pass attempts.

Now this is with the Buffalo Bills. Quite possible that Taylor throws more there than he did with Buffalo. I doubt it is by that much from his 3 year average of 28 pass attempts per game. 25% market share would be 7 targets per game or 112 over 16 games. Landry has averaged 153 targets over the last 3 seasons. 

Landry would need 35% market share of the targets to get 153 if the Browns only throw the ball 448 times in 2018.

Now one good thing is that in 2016 when Jay Ajayi had a good season and the Dolphins were winning some games, Landry only had 131 targets that season, but his efficiency improved compared to the other two seasons. The threat of the running game helped Landrys efficiency. If the Browns can get their running game going then perhaps Landry sees similar improvement in things like catch rate and yards per reception even though he has significantly fewer total targets.

 
So why do people think that Tyrod Taylor can't/won't throw more than 500 passes? Will his arm fall off?
Like everyone is stating it's just his tendency to pull the ball down and run if he doesn't like his options. It's probably why he doesn't turn the ball over - I forget the exact stat but the only QB who has turned the ball over less in recent history is Brady. Honestly, CLE could have used Taylor last year. CLE played in 11 one-score games at halftime but constantly #### the bed in the second half primarily due to turnovers (and terrible coaching).

Edit: Found the stat, courtesy of Warren Sharp. "Taylor threw just 16 picks across 1,236 pass attempts in BUF, good for a 1.26% INT rate that ranks second only to Tom Brady over the past three seasons."

 
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The average QB throws the ball on about 87% of his plays (passes + sacks + runs). Tyrod throws the ball on about 75% of his plays - he takes lots of sacks, and he scrambles a lot. So 150 targets in a normal offense shrinks to about 130 targets with Tyrod at QB (if we shrink it proportionally).

 
I think we could just as easily call it the offensive philosophy of the coaching staff as much as Taylor's propensity to tuck and run. Tyrod also has decreased his rushing attempts/game for three consecutive seasons.

I guess if we just want to focus on Haley's three year tenure in KC then maybe I can see the argument for 500 or fewer passes but in eight other seasons as a HC or OC he's been a lot closer to 600 than 500 attempts/season.

Hue has been generally more conservative but has also demonstrated that he isn't shy about slinging it around.

I don't think 500 pass attempts is unattainable and I would not be surprised if he hit 530-550.

 
It's highly unlikely Cleveland passes more than 500 times. Tyrod has a propensity for tucking it. The most passing attempts he's had is about 460. Plus the Brownies were historically bad the past few seasons, which may not continue. The defense is pretty solid in fact. And we will never confuse Hue Jackson for Sean Payton.
Only 5 teams had fewer than 500 pass attempts last year (Tenn, Dallas, Indy Buffalo and Chicago) - and only 5 teams had fewer the year before.  Yes, Buffalo is in there, at 476 - so projecting only ~450 next year is way low.  Now, Buffalo threw the ball so little because they ran it 487 times (4th most in the league), while Cleveland ran it over 100 fewer times. 

Cleveland may throw less with this new QB and maybe being up in games late this year unlike in years past - but I think that 500 is a good early over/under, and even that might be low.  If they're out of the playoffs after week 10, why wouldn't they switch QBs?

 
Only 5 teams had fewer than 500 pass attempts last year (Tenn, Dallas, Indy Buffalo and Chicago) - and only 5 teams had fewer the year before.  Yes, Buffalo is in there, at 476 - so projecting only ~450 next year is way low.  Now, Buffalo threw the ball so little because they ran it 487 times (4th most in the league), while Cleveland ran it over 100 fewer times. 

Cleveland may throw less with this new QB and maybe being up in games late this year unlike in years past - but I think that 500 is a good early over/under, and even that might be low.  If they're out of the playoffs after week 10, why wouldn't they switch QBs?
Tyrod runs on about 1/6th of pass plays. His 3rd read is to run. I mentioned this tendency in the post to which you responded. 

Suppose you think Hue Jackson calls 550 pass plays, which to me is a bit high but whatever; Tyrod would then make about 460 pass attempts. 

 
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Tyrod runs on about 1/6th of pass plays. His 3rd read is to run. I mentioned this tendency in the post to which you responded. 

Suppose you think Hue Jackson calls 550 pass plays, which to me is a bit high but whatever; Tyrod would then make about 460 pass attempts. 
They had 574 ACTUAL ATTEMPTS last year - with another 50 sacks (no idea how many were "true sacks" and how many were tackled the QB behind the line when he was attempting to run), and 88 QB runs (no idea how many were called runs, and how many were scrambles).  That's 712 total.  And the sacks and QB runs equal about 1/5th of the "pass plays", so even higher than Tyrod's history. 

Sure, it may come down from 712 this year....but a 23% drop to get to 550?!  I think you're off, by at least 100 (if combining pass attempts, sacks, and QB rushes). 

 
Tyrod runs on about 1/6th of pass plays. His 3rd read is to run. I mentioned this tendency in the post to which you responded. 

Suppose you think Hue Jackson calls 550 pass plays, which to me is a bit high but whatever; Tyrod would then make about 460 pass attempts. 
Again, I think some iyf that needs to be put on Tyrod having extremely conservative HCs and OCs. It's very possible he was coached to make running his third read.  Have we seen anything to suggest he cannot make a third (or fourth) read? Seems like he works incredibly hard at his craft.

I also think that outside of half a season with a healthy Sammy Watkins Tyrod has rarely had a legitimate first read let alone a third or fourth one. The pass catchers in Cleveland look like the best of his career even without Josh Gordon.

 
I'm torn on Landry. He is a PPR machine. But he's in Cleveland. Will they use him like he was in Miami? Will they realize that is what he does best and they should continue to exploit that as a mismatch week to week? Those are two questions I don't know the answer to so I'm hesitant.

 
I'm torn on Landry. He is a PPR machine. But he's in Cleveland. Will they use him like he was in Miami? Will they realize that is what he does best and they should continue to exploit that as a mismatch week to week? Those are two questions I don't know the answer to so I'm hesitant.
I love him a player, he was my favorite Dolphin while he was here.

My hesitation has nothing to do with his talent but I worry not only about what you mentioned above but what happens if BOTH Josh Gordon comes back AND Dez Bryant signs?  I know Dez is a shell of his former self but he will still attract SOME targets.  Then throw into the mix Duke Johnson who they just gave a big contract to AND Njoku who they invested heavy draft capital into and it's hard to predict how the targets will be split.

For now, I'm staying away.  His ADP is trending toward him being a middle 3rd round pick and I'd rather have guys like Fitz over him in that range.

 
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Jarvis Landry caught 3-of-10 targets for 23 yards in Thursday's preseason game against the Eagles.

It was a brutally-inefficient night for Landry in a game where Tyrod Taylor and Baker Mayfield both saw run with the first-team offense. The lowlight was a first quarter sequence where Taylor failed to find Landry three times in four plays from the Eagles' one-yard line. Landry finishes the preseason with five grabs for 59 yards. Although it initially seemed he would face more target competition in Cleveland than he did in Miami, Landry appears in line for as much volume as fantasy owners have come to expect since 2014.

Aug 23 - 11:30 PM

 
3 on 10? Anyone watch the game...what was that about. Considering grabbing him but draft is tomorrow and don’t think we’ll have a decision on Del by then. 

 
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Dez Bryant signing with the Browns would obviously result in a reduction of passing targets for Jarvis Landry. How much of an impact is up for debate.
When factoring in Gordon and the likelihood that Tyrod attempts ~500 passes it already feels a bit crowded. Between Landry, Gordon, Njoku, Duke and to a lesser extent Callaway (I think Higgins is going to work ahead of him regardless) everyone has their favorite sleeper/value pick/break-out pass catcher on CLE this year. A lot of people are going to be disappointed whether or not Dez gets thrown into the mix. I'm still a fan of Landry though, you can tell he has the trust of coaching staff and teammates and that he's one of the team's leaders.

As an aside, I love that when quizzed by a staffer on which WR has the most TDs since 2012, Dorsey actually said "Landry?". Like dude, do you even watch football?

 
3 on 10? Anyone watch the game...what was that about. Considering grabbing him but draft is tomorrow and don’t think we’ll have a decision on Del by then. 
Overall I'm much more worried about the second number than the first.  I mean to say that if he's getting targets, he'll be making catches.  The above article from Faust says he's been catching everything in practice, and the last 4 years he's had reception rates of 75%, 66%, 72%, and 70%.  Those were with Jay Cutler, Ryan Tannehill, and Matt Moore who have never really been known for their accuracy.  If he's going to get targets, he's going to get receptions. 

 
When factoring in Gordon and the likelihood that Tyrod attempts ~500 passes it already feels a bit crowded. Between Landry, Gordon, Njoku, Duke and to a lesser extent Callaway (I think Higgins is going to work ahead of him regardless) everyone has their favorite sleeper/value pick/break-out pass catcher on CLE this year. A lot of people are going to be disappointed whether or not Dez gets thrown into the mix. I'm still a fan of Landry though, you can tell he has the trust of coaching staff and teammates and that he's one of the team's leaders.

As an aside, I love that when quizzed by a staffer on which WR has the most TDs since 2012, Dorsey actually said "Landry?". Like dude, do you even watch football?
I had this discussion with someone else, either in this thread or another.  Why do you only see ~500 attempts when this team had 574 last year, 567 the year before, and 609 the year before that.  Why a ~15% drop from their three year average AFTER signing Landry and possibly getting Gordon back?  I think the answer I got back last time was that Taylor either runs or gets sacked a lot so that will account for a drop.....but those 574 last year were after 50 sacks (6th most in league) and 88 QB rushes (roughly equal to what Taylor would have had over a full year had he played 16).  Maybe a drop to 550, but not all the way down to 500.

550 breaks down to ~150 for Landry, ~125 for Gordon, ~80 for Njoku, ~90 for Duke, and ~100 more to spread around between the other RBs, TEs, and WRs. 

 
I had this discussion with someone else, either in this thread or another. Why do you only see ~500 attempts when this team had 574 last year, 567 the year before, and 609 the year before that. Why a ~15% drop from their three year average AFTER signing Landry and possibly getting Gordon back? I think the answer I got back last time was that Taylor either runs or gets sacked a lot so that will account for a drop.....but those 574 last year were after 50 sacks (6th most in league) and 88 QB rushes (roughly equal to what Taylor would have had over a full year had he played 16). Maybe a drop to 550, but not all the way down to 500.

550 breaks down to ~150 for Landry, ~125 for Gordon, ~80 for Njoku, ~90 for Duke, and ~100 more to spread around between the other RBs, TEs, and WRs.
When I say ~500 attempts I sound confident but let's be honest no one knows exactly what's going to happen because there are too many variables to truly account for. My goal isn't to be correct 100% of the time, it's just to be more correct than the 11 other guys I'm drafting with at any particular time.

The most crucial assumption I'm making is that CLE is not going to go 0-16 again or really anything close to it this year. Now it's possible since Hue is a ####### terrible coach and although CLE played in 11 one-score games at halftime last year they still managed the impressive feat of going 0-16. But the reason why this assumption is important is because CLE was dead last in rushing attempts last year. CLE has been actually been dead last for three years running and I'm expecting that to change because I'm expecting them to win more games (>4) this year than they have in those three years combined. I'm expecting that to change because a) their QB, specifically when it comes to turning the ball over (the turnover battle is the most predictive stat as it pertains to winning), is better than anything they've had in that time span and b) the Hyde, Duke, Chubb combo is also better than anything they've had in that time span. We also know that Tyrod has never attempted more than 437 passes in a season, his conservative nature isn't exactly the basis to my assumption but rather just helps bolster it.

My target break down at the moment is..

Landry: 123-138

Gordon: 88-102

Njoku: 69-82

Duke: 69-82

I could definitely be wrong in which case I'll probably regret passing on some of these players. 

 
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We also know that Tyrod has never attempted more than 437 passes in a season, his conservative nature isn't exactly the basis to my assumption but rather just helps bolster it.
 
Well, keep in mind that he's also never had a full 16 game season.  Last year for instance add 56 passes from Peterman and Webb (many of which to the opposing team).  That was on a team who didn't have a single WR get more than 27 catches, either.  That's not a typo.  There wasn't much need to throw, or many decent targets to throw to.

 
The average QB throws the ball on about 87% of his plays (passes + sacks + runs). Tyrod throws the ball on about 75% of his plays - he takes lots of sacks, and he scrambles a lot. So 150 targets in a normal offense shrinks to about 130 targets with Tyrod at QB (if we shrink it proportionally).
Over the past 2 seasons, Cleveland QBs threw the ball on 81% of their plays. Midway in between the league average 87% and Tyrod's 75%. A shift from 81% to 75% would turn 570 passing attempts into 528. And as SSND said, if the Browns aren't so terrible this year then the game scripts will also shift in a less pass-heavy direction.

 
Jarvis Landry caught 8-of-15 targets for 103 yards in the Browns' Week 3 win over the Jets.

Landry committed a drop but was helping Baker Mayfield move the chains for the Browns' transformed offense after Tyrod Taylor (concussion) was forced from the game. Landry was the lone Brown getting his numbers while Taylor was under center, but his fantasy fortunes improve with Mayfield taking over. Landry has a soft Week 4 matchup in the Raiders.

Sep 20 - 11:49 PM

 
On pace for 106 catches, 1480 yards

Gotta start getting into the endzone to be in that top tier, but one has to think that’s coming.

 
On pace for 106 catches, 1480 yards

Gotta start getting into the endzone to be in that top tier, but one has to think that’s coming.
Until last night, I was not sure that going to Baker from Taylor would be good for Landry.  Those concerns are gone. Baker can rifle the ball into places that Taylor would never even attempt.   Landry wasn't even ready for Baker's zip on the ball when that pass hit him in the chest and was a drop.  If Landry can keep getting volume, he will get some TDs in this balanced O.  

 
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Tried to trade Landry and Henry for the keeper rights to Golladay for the next 5 years and Hyde. Still wish I had the rights to Golladay but now that they made the move to Mayfield I think Landry is a WR1/High2 the rest of the way. He’s a target machine and the TDs will come. 

 
His adot is interesting. After averaging 5.7, 7.7, 6.4 and 6.2 yards in MIA he's averaging 11.6 so far this year in CLE. 

To further put this into context, he's accounted for 417 air yards on 36 targets so far this year. Last year he accounted for 1,029 air yards on 160 targets. 

 
Top 10 WR ROY. 

ETA: If Baker can get him 6 TDs

ETAA: Didn’t realize he was 9th last year in our league. Crazy. 

 
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:(   anybody have any insight into what the problem has been these last few weeks?
He's not as good as he thinks he is. He's not #1 WR material. Double team him and he's a zero. Everyone else drops the passes. 5-7 drops today for Browns receivers. I think he may have had 2 himself.

 
Route usage

Extending this from the other thread. Here is an example of how Cleveland is using Landry vs Miami.
I’m starting to second guess my second guess. Landry’s early season usage was promising and he was looking to emerge being used as an actual WR. Unfortunately since I declared I was wrong about him he is now leading the league in drops, has a 47% catch rate, leads the league in RZ targets but only has one TD and is only 19th in receptions despite being the 6th most targeted WR for the season. His upcoming schedule is gravy and I think it’s make or break for his experiment as more than a short yardage, slot guy.

 
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He's not as good as he thinks he is. He's not #1 WR material. Double team him and he's a zero. Everyone else drops the passes. 5-7 drops today for Browns receivers. I think he may have had 2 himself.
Double team most players & they can't really get anything done...

 

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