Zero hope. Guy is cooked this year.This guy is sitting in the free agent pool of my league. That's probably where he belongs, but is there any hope he puts up a good second half of the season?
Zero hope. Guy is cooked this year.This guy is sitting in the free agent pool of my league. That's probably where he belongs, but is there any hope he puts up a good second half of the season?
With Love at the helm, simply...no.This guy is sitting in the free agent pool of my league. That's probably where he belongs, but is there any hope he puts up a good second half of the season?
This kicking dirt on his grave is awfully premature. Matt Harmon called him a mini-Martavis Bryant in terms of talent and style. I'll take a peak Bryant over 3/4 of the receivers in the game. Truly. This thread is astounding and shows where dynasty is really headed. It's all instant gratification.
Perhaps for dynasty... but man he has looked bad this year from a fantasy perspective
Is mini-Martavis Bryant supposed to be a compliment?This kicking dirt on his grave is awfully premature. Matt Harmon called him a mini-Martavis Bryant in terms of talent and style. I'll take a peak Bryant over 3/4 of the receivers in the game. Truly. This thread is astounding and shows where dynasty is really headed. It's all instant gratification.
Is mini-Martavis Bryant supposed to be a compliment?
Yeah, I take it as totally dismissive. Basically saying this guy is a size-speed specimen who lacks the detail needed to have an NFL career. Bryant had off the field issues obviously but he was way more flash than smash.Is mini-Martavis Bryant supposed to be a compliment?
Backhanded. Bryant was dynamic in his years in the NFL, but inconsistent.
Yeah, I take it as totally dismissive.
Fair, I am obviously not a fan of Watson or his game so take all my opinions here with that in mind. I thought he was overrated in the draft, thought he was overrated coming into this season and I still don't think he's found level quite yet.Yeah, I take it as totally dismissive.
Considering Harmon had him as his 30th wide receiver with upside, I would not take it as totally dismissive. He had some positive things to say about Watson.
Christian Watson (shoulder) was removed from the Week 11 injury report and will play against the Rams.
Watson was limited in practice throughout the week, though the light practices were clearly a precaution as he didn’t even get hit with a questionable tag. The speedy receiver should play without any limitations on Sunday. The bigger issue for Watson has been his connection, or lack thereof, with Jordan Love. The two have rarely been on the same page this year, resulting in one game over 37 yards and no four-catch outings this year. Watson will rank as a WR4 until things turnaround for the Green Bay offense.
Too bad the Rams play the Seahawks. I plan to be there, so hopefully I didn’t f up my schedule lol
Sorry, I am just wrong so much that I have to really dwell on the few I get right.This hurts. Really. Don't rub it in.
Sorry, I am just wrong so much that I have to really dwell on the few I get right.
I swear my new dynasty approach is to sell basically every 2nd year WR in August. They get such a huge value bump. Olave, Wilson, Watson, Dotson, etc. I feel like they almost all are worth a little less than they were in August. I would probably put an exception on late round WR picks who maybe have a value lag like ARSB and guys who had historical rookie year like Jefferson/Chase.Sorry, I am just wrong so much that I have to really dwell on the few I get right.
Seems like I could dine out betting against myself in dynasty this year. I'm 7-3 but such a paper tiger. Bunch of bad calls like not moving Watson at his peak value have hurt me. I knew he was a touch overvalued, but I had visions of missing out while he ran amok this year and next. Sad thing is that my dynasty outlook doesn't look to be getting that much better next year, either. So we live with Watson and hope he can turn it around in Green Bay.
I know there isn't a 1 size fits all approach that actually works but just kind theorizing here.
It's certainly an interesting group think dynamic that one can probably take advantage of. I got so lucky with Dotson. I almost waited too long and then pretty much sold him at the last possible moment before his value officially cratered. I swear it was a literal a single week where he went from "be patient, the big games are coming" to "he's not it" in the minds of every fantasy player.I know there isn't a 1 size fits all approach that actually works but just kind theorizing here.
Oh, you're not just theorizing and spitballing on a message board. You're stating a fact that most dynasty guys find actionable even if they're not selling those assets like you are. But it's a little different than a value bump. There is a value retention in second-year guys that were taken early in rookie drafts. So the value is not something you're not dreaming about, but it's a retention rather than a spike. Pete Howdy and DLF have talked about this at length in their work.
Nor are you dreaming about the lag on late-rounders. But anybody who flashes their rookie year gets a bit of a spike in value. You can see it happening on KTC already for some of the guys that went in the second or third rounds of rookie drafts. Dell, Downs, Rice, and others are ascending rapidly up the value chart.
So your prescription—selling them—is selling them at their peak, really, which is what you want to be doing.
I swear it was a literal a single week where he went from "be patient, the big games are coming" to "he's not it" in the minds of every fantasy player.
Makes sense. Plus there is the whole element of wanting to be right, find your guys, get the hot new thing. It's just an interesting dynamic- so much fun IMO. I played dynasty a little bit 15 years ago but never found a league that really stuck, had some bad luck. I always followed it because I thought it was helpful for redraft and I just like general player analysis. I got back into a dynasty league 4 years ago and I am having a blast. It was a total down to the studs rebuild but seeing the fruits of that labor is rewarding. What a dumb hobby but I do love it.I swear it was a literal a single week where he went from "be patient, the big games are coming" to "he's not it" in the minds of every fantasy player.
I think it was the week that Twitter/X breakdown of his game came out. Not pretty. But yeah, there's a lot of groupthink in dynasty that affects player values because we're always so enamored of potential points that we forget nothing is concrete until it's on the scoreboard in our little world. And it's when that bubble bursts that you don't want to have been on top of one and counting on it to remain that way.
That makes no sense. What I'm trying to say is that so much of dynasty value is based upon potential. Once the notion that a player won't reach actual points from his potential gets cemented in some way, the player's value both as asset and as point scorer becomes a problem to the GM that holds him. You're not retaining any trade value and you're not getting any points on the scoreboard. It's tough to find that fine line of asset value and actual production.
I wouldn't call them bad takes. I'd call them projecting forward based on the only information we have at this point. Unfortunately for Watson, most of that information is bad. Some people will excuse it on the QB and his injuries, others won't. Truth is likely it's a combination of all of it. Either way, people who project based on historical data and trends will obviously have a gloomy outlook for him at this point, understandably so. His value has dropped enough that those who own him should probably just hold at this point. Pray for some overall offensive improvement, maybe even a new QB, and that he's able to stay healthy.So many bad takes. He can be elite like he was last year for a stretch when he got healthy as a rookie. There's half a season left in his 2nd year season. Had one nice catch but just out of bounds at the 1 and then got open for the TD today, so far.
Jayden Reed plays the slot and gets an advantage matchup in that position. He's not going to be a #! for a team unless he moves outside and proves he can be. I don't see that happening.I wouldn't call them bad takes. I'd call them projecting forward based on the only information we have at this point. Unfortunately for Watson, most of that information is bad. Some people will excuse it on the QB and his injuries, others won't. Truth is likely it's a combination of all of it. Either way, people who project based on historical data and trends will obviously have a gloomy outlook for him at this point, understandably so. His value has dropped enough that those who own him should probably just hold at this point. Pray for some overall offensive improvement, maybe even a new QB, and that he's able to stay healthy.So many bad takes. He can be elite like he was last year for a stretch when he got healthy as a rookie. There's half a season left in his 2nd year season. Had one nice catch but just out of bounds at the 1 and then got open for the TD today, so far.
Next season will certainly be make or break for him. I think he can be successful WR2, with boom weeks when he scores TDs. Could even become THE redzone weapon on the team (though I think Musgrave will get his share). I just think that scenario only happens if they feature someone else as a WR1 and don't push Watson outside his comfort zone. Keep him doing what he's best at, force the defense into making tough decisions, and exploit Watson when defenses forget about him. Some people think that WR1 isn't on the team. I'm a believer in Reed continuing to improve and becoming that guy. His success so far against man, zone, and even press to date lends to that belief. It will only be better for GB if that is the case so they can focus their draft picks in other areas of need.
2 of his TDs this season came when he was lined up outside. At Michigan he lined up literally everywhere. X, slot, flanker, and running motion (like GB has been doing with him and getting a lot of success). His success rates against coverages in college and the pros are well above average. As I've said, GB just needs to put him there more, as the times they have he's been successful; much more so than Watson.Jayden Reed plays the slot and gets an advantage matchup in that position. He's not going to be a #! for a team unless he moves outside and proves he can be. I don't see that happening.I wouldn't call them bad takes. I'd call them projecting forward based on the only information we have at this point. Unfortunately for Watson, most of that information is bad. Some people will excuse it on the QB and his injuries, others won't. Truth is likely it's a combination of all of it. Either way, people who project based on historical data and trends will obviously have a gloomy outlook for him at this point, understandably so. His value has dropped enough that those who own him should probably just hold at this point. Pray for some overall offensive improvement, maybe even a new QB, and that he's able to stay healthy.So many bad takes. He can be elite like he was last year for a stretch when he got healthy as a rookie. There's half a season left in his 2nd year season. Had one nice catch but just out of bounds at the 1 and then got open for the TD today, so far.
Next season will certainly be make or break for him. I think he can be successful WR2, with boom weeks when he scores TDs. Could even become THE redzone weapon on the team (though I think Musgrave will get his share). I just think that scenario only happens if they feature someone else as a WR1 and don't push Watson outside his comfort zone. Keep him doing what he's best at, force the defense into making tough decisions, and exploit Watson when defenses forget about him. Some people think that WR1 isn't on the team. I'm a believer in Reed continuing to improve and becoming that guy. His success so far against man, zone, and even press to date lends to that belief. It will only be better for GB if that is the case so they can focus their draft picks in other areas of need.
This guy is sitting in the free agent pool of my league. That's probably where he belongs, but is there any hope he puts up a good second half of the season?
I was just going to write this (except he played at MSU) - he is scheme versatile and can play outside and inside. Just a really underrated rookie, he is playing really good.2 of his TDs this season came when he was lined up outside. At Michigan he lined up literally everywhere. X, slot, flanker, and running motion (like GB has been doing with him and getting a lot of success). His success rates against coverages in college and the pros are well above average. As I've said, GB just needs to put him there more, as the times they have he's been successful; much more so than Watson.Jayden Reed plays the slot and gets an advantage matchup in that position. He's not going to be a #! for a team unless he moves outside and proves he can be. I don't see that happening.I wouldn't call them bad takes. I'd call them projecting forward based on the only information we have at this point. Unfortunately for Watson, most of that information is bad. Some people will excuse it on the QB and his injuries, others won't. Truth is likely it's a combination of all of it. Either way, people who project based on historical data and trends will obviously have a gloomy outlook for him at this point, understandably so. His value has dropped enough that those who own him should probably just hold at this point. Pray for some overall offensive improvement, maybe even a new QB, and that he's able to stay healthy.So many bad takes. He can be elite like he was last year for a stretch when he got healthy as a rookie. There's half a season left in his 2nd year season. Had one nice catch but just out of bounds at the 1 and then got open for the TD today, so far.
Next season will certainly be make or break for him. I think he can be successful WR2, with boom weeks when he scores TDs. Could even become THE redzone weapon on the team (though I think Musgrave will get his share). I just think that scenario only happens if they feature someone else as a WR1 and don't push Watson outside his comfort zone. Keep him doing what he's best at, force the defense into making tough decisions, and exploit Watson when defenses forget about him. Some people think that WR1 isn't on the team. I'm a believer in Reed continuing to improve and becoming that guy. His success so far against man, zone, and even press to date lends to that belief. It will only be better for GB if that is the case so they can focus their draft picks in other areas of need.
Sorry lol, I did know it was state but don't watch a ton of college except condensed games in the summer when scouting for dynasty haha. So I always forget to make the distinction. Probably get hung by my toes in North Carolina for that kinda thing.I was just going to write this (except he played at MSU) - he is scheme versatile and can play outside and inside. Just a really underrated rookie, he is playing really good.2 of his TDs this season came when he was lined up outside. At Michigan he lined up literally everywhere. X, slot, flanker, and running motion (like GB has been doing with him and getting a lot of success). His success rates against coverages in college and the pros are well above average. As I've said, GB just needs to put him there more, as the times they have he's been successful; much more so than Watson.Jayden Reed plays the slot and gets an advantage matchup in that position. He's not going to be a #! for a team unless he moves outside and proves he can be. I don't see that happening.I wouldn't call them bad takes. I'd call them projecting forward based on the only information we have at this point. Unfortunately for Watson, most of that information is bad. Some people will excuse it on the QB and his injuries, others won't. Truth is likely it's a combination of all of it. Either way, people who project based on historical data and trends will obviously have a gloomy outlook for him at this point, understandably so. His value has dropped enough that those who own him should probably just hold at this point. Pray for some overall offensive improvement, maybe even a new QB, and that he's able to stay healthy.So many bad takes. He can be elite like he was last year for a stretch when he got healthy as a rookie. There's half a season left in his 2nd year season. Had one nice catch but just out of bounds at the 1 and then got open for the TD today, so far.
Next season will certainly be make or break for him. I think he can be successful WR2, with boom weeks when he scores TDs. Could even become THE redzone weapon on the team (though I think Musgrave will get his share). I just think that scenario only happens if they feature someone else as a WR1 and don't push Watson outside his comfort zone. Keep him doing what he's best at, force the defense into making tough decisions, and exploit Watson when defenses forget about him. Some people think that WR1 isn't on the team. I'm a believer in Reed continuing to improve and becoming that guy. His success so far against man, zone, and even press to date lends to that belief. It will only be better for GB if that is the case so they can focus their draft picks in other areas of need.
Lol, and in Washington, Florida, Mississippi, Iowa, etc.Probably get hung by my toes in North Carolina for that kinda thing.
I do wish I could devote more time to watching it in season, seems electric. Def higher energy than the NFL. I just think my wife would become my ex-wife if I monopolized Saturdays as well as Sundays. Maybe in retirement when she no longer wants me doing things with her anywayLol, and in Washington, Florida, Mississippi, Iowa, etc.Probably get hung by my toes in North Carolina for that kinda thing.
I see it more that people really over valued him based on a small sample size with Aaron Rodgers and are now facing reality.This kicking dirt on his grave is awfully premature. Matt Harmon called him a mini-Martavis Bryant in terms of talent and style. I'll take a peak Bryant over 3/4 of the receivers in the game. Truly. This thread is astounding and shows where dynasty is really headed. It's all instant gratification.
"These questions, and many others, will be answered next year on 'As the NFL Season Turns'"I see it more that people really over valued him based on a small sample size with Aaron Rodgers and are now facing reality.This kicking dirt on his grave is awfully premature. Matt Harmon called him a mini-Martavis Bryant in terms of talent and style. I'll take a peak Bryant over 3/4 of the receivers in the game. Truly. This thread is astounding and shows where dynasty is really headed. It's all instant gratification.
30th WR is still pretty high based on what he has actually done. Still some hype vapors left based on that.
Could things change in the other direction next season? Sure they could but why would they? As far as I can tell he is being outplayed by Reed now. Maybe his window has closed.
Where is Reed ranked? Should Watson be ahead of him?
Is Love the QB next season? When is the turn around for Watson going to happen if not this year?
Always take any post I make about a Packers player with a grain of salt as I hate them. I mean genuinely hate them and they can all jump off a cliff into a cheese curd somewhere."These questions, and many others, will be answered next year on 'As the NFL Season Turns'"I see it more that people really over valued him based on a small sample size with Aaron Rodgers and are now facing reality.This kicking dirt on his grave is awfully premature. Matt Harmon called him a mini-Martavis Bryant in terms of talent and style. I'll take a peak Bryant over 3/4 of the receivers in the game. Truly. This thread is astounding and shows where dynasty is really headed. It's all instant gratification.
30th WR is still pretty high based on what he has actually done. Still some hype vapors left based on that.
Could things change in the other direction next season? Sure they could but why would they? As far as I can tell he is being outplayed by Reed now. Maybe his window has closed.
Where is Reed ranked? Should Watson be ahead of him?
Is Love the QB next season? When is the turn around for Watson going to happen if not this year?
I definitely agree with this though. Majority of rankings had him around WR20 entering this season. He's now around WR40. He should probably be right around WR35, and I do think he has the potential to go higher than that if used better. Pretty sure Reed is currently a spot or two above or below him. I think GB will give him another year, and if they just stop trying to scheme around him as a WR1 they'll probably find success with him.
Always take any post I make about a Packers player with a grain of salt as I hate them. I mean genuinely hate them and they can all jump off a cliff into a cheese curd somewhere.