What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

WR Christian Watson, GB (2 Viewers)

TommyKramer9 said:
This guy is sitting in the free agent pool of my league. That's probably where he belongs, but is there any hope he puts up a good second half of the season?
Click to expand...
With Love at the helm, simply...no.

All he needs is a good deep-ball artist (Aaron, Russ, Pat, or even a wreckless guy like Jameis) and he has a mid-tier WR2 floor. But he's borderline useless without that.

Guy can't run routes. He's good for deep bombs and going across the field. Places he has room in front of him and can simply outdash any DB out there. Anything more technical than that, he's not good.
 
I picked up Wicks this week, depth piece in dynasty league. He looked good vs Steelers. They should consider him more than Watson moving forward. Maybe, just maybe a guy from N Dakota St isnt the best for NFL(see Wentz). Wicks and Reed might be their best options today. However Doubs does what can. Love needs to get better regardless, for any of them to succeed.
 
This kicking dirt on his grave is awfully premature. Matt Harmon called him a mini-Martavis Bryant in terms of talent and style. I'll take a peak Bryant over 3/4 of the receivers in the game. Truly. This thread is astounding and shows where dynasty is really headed. It's all instant gratification.
 
rockaction said:
This kicking dirt on his grave is awfully premature. Matt Harmon called him a mini-Martavis Bryant in terms of talent and style. I'll take a peak Bryant over 3/4 of the receivers in the game. Truly. This thread is astounding and shows where dynasty is really headed. It's all instant gratification.
Click to expand...

Perhaps for dynasty... but man he has looked bad this year from a fantasy perspective. Not all his fault as Love is just totally inaccurate. Plus he's injured again.
 
rockaction said:
This kicking dirt on his grave is awfully premature. Matt Harmon called him a mini-Martavis Bryant in terms of talent and style. I'll take a peak Bryant over 3/4 of the receivers in the game. Truly. This thread is astounding and shows where dynasty is really headed. It's all instant gratification.
Click to expand...
Is mini-Martavis Bryant supposed to be a compliment?
 
rockaction said:
Ilov80s said:
Yeah, I take it as totally dismissive.
Click to expand...

Considering Harmon had him as his 30th wide receiver with upside, I would not take it as totally dismissive. He had some positive things to say about Watson.
Click to expand...
Fair, I am obviously not a fan of Watson or his game so take all my opinions here with that in mind. I thought he was overrated in the draft, thought he was overrated coming into this season and I still don't think he's found level quite yet.
 
I think he's either going to grow into or grow out of the current "perception" people have of him. He's a bit soft and not seizing the WR1 role. That said, not sure anyone in GB really wants that job. I mean, they do obviously but right now it just looks like a bunch of guys.
 
Christian Watson (shoulder) was removed from the Week 11 injury report and will play against the Rams.

Watson was limited in practice throughout the week, though the light practices were clearly a precaution as he didn’t even get hit with a questionable tag. The speedy receiver should play without any limitations on Sunday. The bigger issue for Watson has been his connection, or lack thereof, with Jordan Love. The two have rarely been on the same page this year, resulting in one game over 37 yards and no four-catch outings this year. Watson will rank as a WR4 until things turnaround for the Green Bay offense.
Click to expand...
 
Just listening to the Reception Perception podcast and they deal with the Watson issue. They're really down on him. They actually said "Has anything good happened when they [Green Bay] target Christian Watson in a contested catch situation?" and answered that with "No."

They're claiming too much youth and inexperience on the offense to function without a WR1. He's not a "bad receiver," but he's not a number one. He's a "volatile" number two receiver at this point in the league. His success rate against man coverage was 61.4 percent as a rookie, making his YPRR outlier status a paper tiger. According to NexGen stats, Christian Watson has the lowest EPA of any receiver for contested catches for those with five or greater.

Bad year.

Usage concerns are that he's not running deep routes with the same consistency. He's only running thirteen percent deep routes, down from eighteen percent last year. Last year, he caught 32 percent of those targets whereas this year it's at twenty percent.

They advocate for Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks to get more usage and for Reed to become the primary read more often.

Oof.
 
Ilov80s said:
Sorry, I am just wrong so much that I have to really dwell on the few I get right.
Click to expand...

Seems like I could dine out betting against myself in dynasty this year. I'm 7-3 but such a paper tiger. Bunch of bad calls like not moving Watson at his peak value have hurt me. I knew he was a touch overvalued, but I had visions of missing out while he ran amok this year and next. Sad thing is that my dynasty outlook doesn't look to be getting that much better next year, either. So we live with Watson and hope he can turn it around in Green Bay.
 
rockaction said:
Ilov80s said:
Sorry, I am just wrong so much that I have to really dwell on the few I get right.
Click to expand...

Seems like I could dine out betting against myself in dynasty this year. I'm 7-3 but such a paper tiger. Bunch of bad calls like not moving Watson at his peak value have hurt me. I knew he was a touch overvalued, but I had visions of missing out while he ran amok this year and next. Sad thing is that my dynasty outlook doesn't look to be getting that much better next year, either. So we live with Watson and hope he can turn it around in Green Bay.
Click to expand...
I swear my new dynasty approach is to sell basically every 2nd year WR in August. They get such a huge value bump. Olave, Wilson, Watson, Dotson, etc. I feel like they almost all are worth a little less than they were in August. I would probably put an exception on late round WR picks who maybe have a value lag like ARSB and guys who had historical rookie year like Jefferson/Chase.

I know there isn't a 1 size fits all approach that actually works but just kind theorizing here.
 
Ilov80s said:
I know there isn't a 1 size fits all approach that actually works but just kind theorizing here.
Click to expand...

Oh, you're not just theorizing and spitballing on a message board. You're stating a fact that most dynasty guys find actionable even if they're not selling those assets like you are. But it's a little different than a value bump. There is a value retention in second-year guys that were taken early in rookie drafts. So the value is not something you're not dreaming about, but it's a retention rather than a spike. Pete Howdy and DLF have talked about this at length in their work.

Nor are you dreaming about the lag on late-rounders. But anybody who flashes their rookie year gets a bit of a spike in value. You can see it happening on KTC already for some of the guys that went in the second or third rounds of rookie drafts. Dell, Downs, Rice, and others are ascending rapidly up the value chart.

So your prescription—selling them—is selling them at their peak, really, which is what you want to be doing.
 
rockaction said:
Ilov80s said:
I know there isn't a 1 size fits all approach that actually works but just kind theorizing here.
Click to expand...

Oh, you're not just theorizing and spitballing on a message board. You're stating a fact that most dynasty guys find actionable even if they're not selling those assets like you are. But it's a little different than a value bump. There is a value retention in second-year guys that were taken early in rookie drafts. So the value is not something you're not dreaming about, but it's a retention rather than a spike. Pete Howdy and DLF have talked about this at length in their work.

Nor are you dreaming about the lag on late-rounders. But anybody who flashes their rookie year gets a bit of a spike in value. You can see it happening on KTC already for some of the guys that went in the second or third rounds of rookie drafts. Dell, Downs, Rice, and others are ascending rapidly up the value chart.

So your prescription—selling them—is selling them at their peak, really, which is what you want to be doing.
Click to expand...
It's certainly an interesting group think dynamic that one can probably take advantage of. I got so lucky with Dotson. I almost waited too long and then pretty much sold him at the last possible moment before his value officially cratered. I swear it was a literal a single week where he went from "be patient, the big games are coming" to "he's not it" in the minds of every fantasy player.
 
Ilov80s said:
I swear it was a literal a single week where he went from "be patient, the big games are coming" to "he's not it" in the minds of every fantasy player.
Click to expand...

I think it was the week that Twitter/X breakdown of his game came out. Not pretty. But yeah, there's a lot of groupthink in dynasty that affects player values because we're always so enamored of potential points that we forget nothing is concrete until it's on the scoreboard in our little world. And it's when that bubble bursts that you don't want to have been on top of one and counting on it to remain that way.

That makes no sense. What I'm trying to say is that so much of dynasty value is based upon potential. Once the notion that a player won't reach actual points from his potential gets cemented in some way, the player's value both as asset and as point scorer becomes a problem to the GM that holds him. You're not retaining any trade value and you're not getting any points on the scoreboard. It's tough to find that fine line of asset value and actual production.
 
rockaction said:
Ilov80s said:
I swear it was a literal a single week where he went from "be patient, the big games are coming" to "he's not it" in the minds of every fantasy player.
Click to expand...

I think it was the week that Twitter/X breakdown of his game came out. Not pretty. But yeah, there's a lot of groupthink in dynasty that affects player values because we're always so enamored of potential points that we forget nothing is concrete until it's on the scoreboard in our little world. And it's when that bubble bursts that you don't want to have been on top of one and counting on it to remain that way.

That makes no sense. What I'm trying to say is that so much of dynasty value is based upon potential. Once the notion that a player won't reach actual points from his potential gets cemented in some way, the player's value both as asset and as point scorer becomes a problem to the GM that holds him. You're not retaining any trade value and you're not getting any points on the scoreboard. It's tough to find that fine line of asset value and actual production.
Click to expand...
Makes sense. Plus there is the whole element of wanting to be right, find your guys, get the hot new thing. It's just an interesting dynamic- so much fun IMO. I played dynasty a little bit 15 years ago but never found a league that really stuck, had some bad luck. I always followed it because I thought it was helpful for redraft and I just like general player analysis. I got back into a dynasty league 4 years ago and I am having a blast. It was a total down to the studs rebuild but seeing the fruits of that labor is rewarding. What a dumb hobby but I do love it.
 
I admittedly haven't watched Watson play too much, but it seems like he's a guy who Rodgers elevated last year with his precision passing along with Watson's athleticism to make big plays. Watson may be one of those guys with insane athleticism, but hasn't yet developed the finer points of his game (separation, route running, etc). Maybe he'll get there, but isn't yet.
 
I'd cut him but have to replace Aaron Jones and Mark Andrews plus whoever else on my roster has a season ender this week. Actually I might be better off keeping Andrews because I wouldn't start him.
 
So many bad takes. He can be elite like he was last year for a stretch when he got healthy as a rookie. There's half a season left in his 2nd year season. Had one nice catch but just out of bounds at the 1 and then got open for the TD today, so far.
 
N Zone said:
So many bad takes. He can be elite like he was last year for a stretch when he got healthy as a rookie. There's half a season left in his 2nd year season. Had one nice catch but just out of bounds at the 1 and then got open for the TD today, so far.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't call them bad takes. I'd call them projecting forward based on the only information we have at this point. Unfortunately for Watson, most of that information is bad. Some people will excuse it on the QB and his injuries, others won't. Truth is likely it's a combination of all of it. Either way, people who project based on historical data and trends will obviously have a gloomy outlook for him at this point, understandably so. His value has dropped enough that those who own him should probably just hold at this point. Pray for some overall offensive improvement, maybe even a new QB, and that he's able to stay healthy.

Next season will certainly be make or break for him. I think he can be successful WR2, with boom weeks when he scores TDs. Could even become THE redzone weapon on the team (though I think Musgrave will get his share). I just think that scenario only happens if they feature someone else as a WR1 and don't push Watson outside his comfort zone. Keep him doing what he's best at, force the defense into making tough decisions, and exploit Watson when defenses forget about him. Some people think that WR1 isn't on the team. I'm a believer in Reed continuing to improve and becoming that guy. His success so far against man, zone, and even press to date lends to that belief. It will only be better for GB if that is the case so they can focus their draft picks in other areas of need.
 
pinkstapler said:
N Zone said:
So many bad takes. He can be elite like he was last year for a stretch when he got healthy as a rookie. There's half a season left in his 2nd year season. Had one nice catch but just out of bounds at the 1 and then got open for the TD today, so far.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't call them bad takes. I'd call them projecting forward based on the only information we have at this point. Unfortunately for Watson, most of that information is bad. Some people will excuse it on the QB and his injuries, others won't. Truth is likely it's a combination of all of it. Either way, people who project based on historical data and trends will obviously have a gloomy outlook for him at this point, understandably so. His value has dropped enough that those who own him should probably just hold at this point. Pray for some overall offensive improvement, maybe even a new QB, and that he's able to stay healthy.

Next season will certainly be make or break for him. I think he can be successful WR2, with boom weeks when he scores TDs. Could even become THE redzone weapon on the team (though I think Musgrave will get his share). I just think that scenario only happens if they feature someone else as a WR1 and don't push Watson outside his comfort zone. Keep him doing what he's best at, force the defense into making tough decisions, and exploit Watson when defenses forget about him. Some people think that WR1 isn't on the team. I'm a believer in Reed continuing to improve and becoming that guy. His success so far against man, zone, and even press to date lends to that belief. It will only be better for GB if that is the case so they can focus their draft picks in other areas of need.
Click to expand...
Jayden Reed plays the slot and gets an advantage matchup in that position. He's not going to be a #! for a team unless he moves outside and proves he can be. I don't see that happening.
 
N Zone said:
pinkstapler said:
N Zone said:
So many bad takes. He can be elite like he was last year for a stretch when he got healthy as a rookie. There's half a season left in his 2nd year season. Had one nice catch but just out of bounds at the 1 and then got open for the TD today, so far.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't call them bad takes. I'd call them projecting forward based on the only information we have at this point. Unfortunately for Watson, most of that information is bad. Some people will excuse it on the QB and his injuries, others won't. Truth is likely it's a combination of all of it. Either way, people who project based on historical data and trends will obviously have a gloomy outlook for him at this point, understandably so. His value has dropped enough that those who own him should probably just hold at this point. Pray for some overall offensive improvement, maybe even a new QB, and that he's able to stay healthy.

Next season will certainly be make or break for him. I think he can be successful WR2, with boom weeks when he scores TDs. Could even become THE redzone weapon on the team (though I think Musgrave will get his share). I just think that scenario only happens if they feature someone else as a WR1 and don't push Watson outside his comfort zone. Keep him doing what he's best at, force the defense into making tough decisions, and exploit Watson when defenses forget about him. Some people think that WR1 isn't on the team. I'm a believer in Reed continuing to improve and becoming that guy. His success so far against man, zone, and even press to date lends to that belief. It will only be better for GB if that is the case so they can focus their draft picks in other areas of need.
Click to expand...
Jayden Reed plays the slot and gets an advantage matchup in that position. He's not going to be a #! for a team unless he moves outside and proves he can be. I don't see that happening.
Click to expand...
2 of his TDs this season came when he was lined up outside. At Michigan he lined up literally everywhere. X, slot, flanker, and running motion (like GB has been doing with him and getting a lot of success). His success rates against coverages in college and the pros are well above average. As I've said, GB just needs to put him there more, as the times they have he's been successful; much more so than Watson.
 
pinkstapler said:
N Zone said:
pinkstapler said:
N Zone said:
So many bad takes. He can be elite like he was last year for a stretch when he got healthy as a rookie. There's half a season left in his 2nd year season. Had one nice catch but just out of bounds at the 1 and then got open for the TD today, so far.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't call them bad takes. I'd call them projecting forward based on the only information we have at this point. Unfortunately for Watson, most of that information is bad. Some people will excuse it on the QB and his injuries, others won't. Truth is likely it's a combination of all of it. Either way, people who project based on historical data and trends will obviously have a gloomy outlook for him at this point, understandably so. His value has dropped enough that those who own him should probably just hold at this point. Pray for some overall offensive improvement, maybe even a new QB, and that he's able to stay healthy.

Next season will certainly be make or break for him. I think he can be successful WR2, with boom weeks when he scores TDs. Could even become THE redzone weapon on the team (though I think Musgrave will get his share). I just think that scenario only happens if they feature someone else as a WR1 and don't push Watson outside his comfort zone. Keep him doing what he's best at, force the defense into making tough decisions, and exploit Watson when defenses forget about him. Some people think that WR1 isn't on the team. I'm a believer in Reed continuing to improve and becoming that guy. His success so far against man, zone, and even press to date lends to that belief. It will only be better for GB if that is the case so they can focus their draft picks in other areas of need.
Click to expand...
Jayden Reed plays the slot and gets an advantage matchup in that position. He's not going to be a #! for a team unless he moves outside and proves he can be. I don't see that happening.
Click to expand...
2 of his TDs this season came when he was lined up outside. At Michigan he lined up literally everywhere. X, slot, flanker, and running motion (like GB has been doing with him and getting a lot of success). His success rates against coverages in college and the pros are well above average. As I've said, GB just needs to put him there more, as the times they have he's been successful; much more so than Watson.
Click to expand...
I was just going to write this (except he played at MSU) - he is scheme versatile and can play outside and inside. Just a really underrated rookie, he is playing really good.
 
Balco said:
pinkstapler said:
N Zone said:
pinkstapler said:
N Zone said:
So many bad takes. He can be elite like he was last year for a stretch when he got healthy as a rookie. There's half a season left in his 2nd year season. Had one nice catch but just out of bounds at the 1 and then got open for the TD today, so far.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't call them bad takes. I'd call them projecting forward based on the only information we have at this point. Unfortunately for Watson, most of that information is bad. Some people will excuse it on the QB and his injuries, others won't. Truth is likely it's a combination of all of it. Either way, people who project based on historical data and trends will obviously have a gloomy outlook for him at this point, understandably so. His value has dropped enough that those who own him should probably just hold at this point. Pray for some overall offensive improvement, maybe even a new QB, and that he's able to stay healthy.

Next season will certainly be make or break for him. I think he can be successful WR2, with boom weeks when he scores TDs. Could even become THE redzone weapon on the team (though I think Musgrave will get his share). I just think that scenario only happens if they feature someone else as a WR1 and don't push Watson outside his comfort zone. Keep him doing what he's best at, force the defense into making tough decisions, and exploit Watson when defenses forget about him. Some people think that WR1 isn't on the team. I'm a believer in Reed continuing to improve and becoming that guy. His success so far against man, zone, and even press to date lends to that belief. It will only be better for GB if that is the case so they can focus their draft picks in other areas of need.
Click to expand...
Jayden Reed plays the slot and gets an advantage matchup in that position. He's not going to be a #! for a team unless he moves outside and proves he can be. I don't see that happening.
Click to expand...
2 of his TDs this season came when he was lined up outside. At Michigan he lined up literally everywhere. X, slot, flanker, and running motion (like GB has been doing with him and getting a lot of success). His success rates against coverages in college and the pros are well above average. As I've said, GB just needs to put him there more, as the times they have he's been successful; much more so than Watson.
Click to expand...
I was just going to write this (except he played at MSU) - he is scheme versatile and can play outside and inside. Just a really underrated rookie, he is playing really good.
Click to expand...
Sorry lol, I did know it was state but don't watch a ton of college except condensed games in the summer when scouting for dynasty haha. So I always forget to make the distinction. Probably get hung by my toes in North Carolina for that kinda thing.
 
Drake Hater said:
pinkstapler said:
Probably get hung by my toes in North Carolina for that kinda thing.
Click to expand...
Lol, and in Washington, Florida, Mississippi, Iowa, etc.
Click to expand...
I do wish I could devote more time to watching it in season, seems electric. Def higher energy than the NFL. I just think my wife would become my ex-wife if I monopolized Saturdays as well as Sundays. Maybe in retirement when she no longer wants me doing things with her anyway :lol:
 
rockaction said:
This kicking dirt on his grave is awfully premature. Matt Harmon called him a mini-Martavis Bryant in terms of talent and style. I'll take a peak Bryant over 3/4 of the receivers in the game. Truly. This thread is astounding and shows where dynasty is really headed. It's all instant gratification.
Click to expand...
I see it more that people really over valued him based on a small sample size with Aaron Rodgers and are now facing reality.

30th WR is still pretty high based on what he has actually done. Still some hype vapors left based on that.

Could things change in the other direction next season? Sure they could but why would they? As far as I can tell he is being outplayed by Reed now. Maybe his window has closed.

Where is Reed ranked? Should Watson be ahead of him?

Is Love the QB next season? When is the turn around for Watson going to happen if not this year?
 
Biabreakable said:
rockaction said:
This kicking dirt on his grave is awfully premature. Matt Harmon called him a mini-Martavis Bryant in terms of talent and style. I'll take a peak Bryant over 3/4 of the receivers in the game. Truly. This thread is astounding and shows where dynasty is really headed. It's all instant gratification.
Click to expand...
I see it more that people really over valued him based on a small sample size with Aaron Rodgers and are now facing reality.

30th WR is still pretty high based on what he has actually done. Still some hype vapors left based on that.

Could things change in the other direction next season? Sure they could but why would they? As far as I can tell he is being outplayed by Reed now. Maybe his window has closed.

Where is Reed ranked? Should Watson be ahead of him?

Is Love the QB next season? When is the turn around for Watson going to happen if not this year?
Click to expand...
"These questions, and many others, will be answered next year on 'As the NFL Season Turns'"

I definitely agree with this though. Majority of rankings had him around WR20 entering this season. He's now around WR40. He should probably be right around WR35, and I do think he has the potential to go higher than that if used better. Pretty sure Reed is currently a spot or two above or below him. I think GB will give him another year, and if they just stop trying to scheme around him as a WR1 they'll probably find success with him.
 
pinkstapler said:
Biabreakable said:
rockaction said:
This kicking dirt on his grave is awfully premature. Matt Harmon called him a mini-Martavis Bryant in terms of talent and style. I'll take a peak Bryant over 3/4 of the receivers in the game. Truly. This thread is astounding and shows where dynasty is really headed. It's all instant gratification.
Click to expand...
I see it more that people really over valued him based on a small sample size with Aaron Rodgers and are now facing reality.

30th WR is still pretty high based on what he has actually done. Still some hype vapors left based on that.

Could things change in the other direction next season? Sure they could but why would they? As far as I can tell he is being outplayed by Reed now. Maybe his window has closed.

Where is Reed ranked? Should Watson be ahead of him?

Is Love the QB next season? When is the turn around for Watson going to happen if not this year?
Click to expand...
"These questions, and many others, will be answered next year on 'As the NFL Season Turns'"

I definitely agree with this though. Majority of rankings had him around WR20 entering this season. He's now around WR40. He should probably be right around WR35, and I do think he has the potential to go higher than that if used better. Pretty sure Reed is currently a spot or two above or below him. I think GB will give him another year, and if they just stop trying to scheme around him as a WR1 they'll probably find success with him.
Click to expand...
Always take any post I make about a Packers player with a grain of salt as I hate them. I mean genuinely hate them and they can all jump off a cliff into a cheese curd somewhere.

I have some bias here because of that and because my favorite team the Vikings traded the Packers the pick so they could take this guy.

The next Randy Moss eh? Yeah ok. Never heard that before.

I only bring this up to say I was not at all caught up in the hype about Watson from some big plays he made last year because Aaron Rodgers is great and really didn't have many other options.

Remember MVS putting up some numbers? Yeah same type of thing here. Rodgers can extend plays and put it right on these guys, if only they could catch it once in awhile, he will give them a well placed ball for them to do so.

Love? Not so much.

Watson I think has better hands than MVS but that's not saying much, MVS is terrible.

Anyhow good luck to people with patience enough to see this through to its conclusion. Maybe somehow that pays off for them. I am just not seeing how right now.

If the Packers draft a new QB maybe that QB will be better than Love but it will still take awhile and where will Watson be by the time that guy does? If he does?

Dobbs and Reed seem more reliable right now and if that doesn't change Watson just gets phased out of the gameplan with whoever the Packers QB is next season.
 
I'll take twenty-plus points in PPR any day. Still would like to see him get more volume, but apparently he's not that type of guy or he isn't in the plans that way.

He almost had a banner day but Love got flushed from the pocket and had to throw moving backwards off of one foot. He was open.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

JohnnyU
Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint WR GA - Sleeper?
Replies
2
Views
178
Boston
Boston
massraider
WR Jermaine Burton, CIN
Replies
30
Views
1K
socrates
socrates
greenmountaingoat
Ainias Smith-WR- Eagles
Replies
10
Views
465
greenmountaingoat
greenmountaingoat

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)
Top