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So What Are You Doing About Measurements? Which Ones Are Your Keys To Success In General? (1 Viewer)

This is a great post, especially the bolded.

People decide they love a college player.  When he goes in the 5th round, they make fun of the NFL.  And dig in their heels about how great their guy is going to be.  

The NFL is going to get it right more often than not.  If you bet on Draft capital, you're going to be right more often than not.  If you're betting on the NFL getting it wrong--you'll find the occasional exception--but you'll also have a ton of misses.  For every late round star, there's tons of late round guys whose career never saw the light of day.  

I'm sure there's a cut-off point.  Is a 6th round pick much less likely to succeed than a 5th rounder?  I don't know.   

But drafting Hakeem Butler over higher drafted players because YOU liked him in college won't build up your dynasty.  
What you are saying reminds me of how I was with Jay Ajayi.

I am going to keep believing in myself.

 
While I agree with the general point of your post, there's one area where draft capital can be misinterpreted in fantasy football: when people don't take into consideration that a WR was drafted on day two or early on day three because of their prowess as a returner.  That doesn't seem to happen much for RBs, but it does with WRs all of the time.  If a player profiles as a returner, and the team that drafted him needed a returner, then I'm assuming that player was picked earlier because of their skill as a returner not because of their skill as a WR.

I can't think of a good example off the top of my head, but it seems to happen about every year.
Cordarralle Patterson.

Jaylen Waddle.

 

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