Is Now the Time to Sell Calvin Johnson? (1 Viewer)

[Tau837]

I see him as untradeable because who are you going to get for him? The AJ Green owner is not going to give up much, at least he shouldn't. Who would be acceptable? And, what picks would be acceptable? I don't see any winning combo here.

 

[cstu]

I see him as untradeable because who are you going to get for him? The AJ Green owner is not going to give up much, at least he shouldn't. Who would be acceptable? And, what picks would be acceptable? I don't see any winning combo here.

OP passed up DT and two 1st's for him.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I see him as untradeable because who are you going to get for him? The AJ Green owner is not going to give up much, at least he shouldn't. Who would be acceptable? And, what picks would be acceptable? I don't see any winning combo here.

OP passed up DT and two 1st's for him.

If I have, a short window strong contender (ie picks likely late), I'd probably pay that for Calvin. If I had a younger team, or a rebuilder, I'd probably take that for him. Seems fair and dependent on the makeup of the teams in question.

 

[Tau837]

I see him as untradeable because who are you going to get for him? The AJ Green owner is not going to give up much, at least he shouldn't. Who would be acceptable? And, what picks would be acceptable? I don't see any winning combo here.

OP passed up DT and two 1st's for him.

Two firsts from a "middle of the pack" team. It's not like he's likely to get 1.1 and 1.2.

But even if that was the offer, I'd still pass. I'd rather have Calvin's production in 1 roster spot over the next 5 years than the production of Thomas, 1.1, and 1.2 in three roster spots over the next 5 years. Thomas is virtually certain to lose Peyton during that span, and who knows how the 1.1 and 1.2 will turn out.

 

[nirad3]

I owned him in a league where I was stacked at WR and also had Drew Brees in a contract year. I was giving thought of trading Johnson's rights because I felt I would be adequately loaded at WR (still). I had no backup QB of note and there were no RFA QBs to speak of.

I knew, given the parameters of the league and how we have RFA set up, that I would not be able to retain both Johnson and Brees. I tried to accrue as much cash as possible, hoping to somehow retain both. One owner made it very easy for me. He bid his ENTIRE RFA BUDGET on Johnson. We get $50 annually, his team had accrued $112. Most teams had anywhere from $40 to $70. Not sure why he blew his entire wad considering it would be doubtful anyone could go and add $40+ to try and up the bid.

But it made my choice easy. I was not about to spend that kind of cash for Johnson, even as a top-3ish overall dynasty player, given my circumstances.

That all said, I ended up trading for him in another dynasty league so I didn't feel too bad about losing him in the other.

I think the guy has at least 5-6 elite years left in him.

I had the same decision with Calvin and Adrian Peterson two years ago. Sounds like exactly the same league set up. Both hitting 0 year contracts so one was headed to RFA unless I dealt them. This was after Peterson's big injury so his trade value was way down. I thought he was extremely underrated so really wanted to keep him, but couldn't give up Calvin. I ended up having to sell Peterson low for DeMarco Murray straight up when I know I could have gotten a LOT more for Calvin, while keeping Peterson.

Peterson went on to nearly break the NFL rushing record the next season and I still don't regret the decision at all. I'm not sure there's a player I'd rather have in dynasty than Megatron.

Funny you should mention all those names.... I have Peterson/Murray on the same team.

And like I mentioned, I am *so* glad I was able to grab him in another league (with a nice long contract to boot).

 

[Mario Kart]

I see him as untradeable because who are you going to get for him? The AJ Green owner is not going to give up much, at least he shouldn't. Who would be acceptable? And, what picks would be acceptable? I don't see any winning combo here.

OP passed up DT and two 1st's for him.

Unless the OP is using this thread as a veiled, "let me see how others gauge CJ's value so I don't get robbed", then there is no way he is being serious in the OP. Talking about "having" to trade him and then passing on the above offer is odd. What else would it take given that offer? My idea is it would take some guarantees which draft picks do not give with a toss up of DT due to Manning's future.

Question is, what would it take? I'm not sure anyone can give a straight answer to that.

And, since he declined that offer... I would as well. Not sure why some are quick to accept that offer if presented with it. To me, that offer is no where close.

 

[cstu]

I see him as untradeable because who are you going to get for him? The AJ Green owner is not going to give up much, at least he shouldn't. Who would be acceptable? And, what picks would be acceptable? I don't see any winning combo here.

OP passed up DT and two 1st's for him.

Unless the OP is using this thread as a veiled, "let me see how others gauge CJ's value so I don't get robbed", then there is no way he is being serious in the OP. Talking about "having" to trade him and then passing on the above offer is odd. What else would it take given that offer? My idea is it would take some guarantees which draft picks do not give with a toss up of DT due to Manning's future.

Question is, what would it take? I'm not sure anyone can give a straight answer to that.

And, since he declined that offer... I would as well. Not sure why some are quick to accept that offer if presented with it. To me, that offer is no where close.

I see no reason to be worried about DT after Peyton retires. In the last 7 games (including the playoffs) with Tebow his pro-rated numbers were 80/1405/9. Not far off from his numbers with Peyton.

 

[Sabertooth]

I am going to offer the CJ owner 3 first rounder for 2015 draft and see if he bites. He's a Lions fan though so doubtful.

 

[nirad3]

I am going to offer the CJ owner 3 first rounder for 2015 draft and see if he bites. He's a Lions fan though so doubtful.

If the guy's rebuilding, then perhaps that flies... otherwise, I doubt it. Maybe it's just me, but I would want some kind of player/pick combo. The Thomas + 2 1sts thing mentioned earlier in this thread is the perfect kind of offer. I'd want some "instant" value as well as some value down the road.

 

[Ilov80s]

The time is always right to trade if you get a good offer. However, CJ seems to have 5 years or more of great fantasy production left and it should take a lot to sell. Although a lot of it depends on how your team is. If your team is really void of talent, it might make sense.

 

[adrenaline]

I already have AJ, DT & Dez above him in dynasty, by the end of the season I'll probably have a couple more.

 

[Ilov80s]

I already have AJ, DT & Dez above him in dynasty, by the end of the season I'll probably have a couple more.

That seems risky based on age, talent and long term quality of QB.

 

[jeaton6]

I am actively negotiating to trade him and posted in Assistant coach and have gotten feedback that me selling Calvin and 4 end of roster fillers like Jacquizz for Lacy, Trent Richardson, ODB, Terrance Williams and Emmanuel Sanders is a case of me either being low on Calvin or high on Lacy..seems like a big haul for him.

 

[Tau837]

I am actively negotiating to trade him and posted in Assistant coach and have gotten feedback that me selling Calvin and 4 end of roster fillers like Jacquizz for Lacy, Trent Richardson, ODB, Terrance Williams and Emmanuel Sanders is a case of me either being low on Calvin or high on Lacy..seems like a big haul for him.

:X

No way I would even consider that.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I am actively negotiating to trade him and posted in Assistant coach and have gotten feedback that me selling Calvin and 4 end of roster fillers like Jacquizz for Lacy, Trent Richardson, ODB, Terrance Williams and Emmanuel Sanders is a case of me either being low on Calvin or high on Lacy..seems like a big haul for him.

:X

No way I would even consider that.

Eh, I don't think it's a bad offer at all. By my rankings, that's #1 overall for #14, #63, #73, and a pair of decent receiving prospects. I wouldn't do it, but I recognize that a lot of people are lower on Calvin or higher on Lacy than I am, so I don't think it's unreasonable.

Parsons has it as #5 for #22, #30, #66, and Richardson/Williams. That'd be like trading a mid-high first in startup for a pair of picks near the 2/3 turn, plus extras. Seems like good value. Bloom has it as #2 for #16, #49, #56, #65, and Sanders. That's quite the haul. On the other hand, Pasquino has it as #1 for #35, #45, #48, and Williams/Sanders. Presumably he'd think that was a brutally bad offer. By DLF's June ADP, it's #2 for #10, #47, #66, #69, and #115. Again, that's quite the haul.

In the end, that one seems to clearly fall in the "fair trade, even if I wouldn't do it personally" category.

 

[Tau837]

I am actively negotiating to trade him and posted in Assistant coach and have gotten feedback that me selling Calvin and 4 end of roster fillers like Jacquizz for Lacy, Trent Richardson, ODB, Terrance Williams and Emmanuel Sanders is a case of me either being low on Calvin or high on Lacy..seems like a big haul for him.

:X

No way I would even consider that.

Eh, I don't think it's a bad offer at all. By my rankings, that's #1 overall for #14, #63, #73, and a pair of decent receiving prospects. I wouldn't do it, but I recognize that a lot of people are lower on Calvin or higher on Lacy than I am, so I don't think it's unreasonable.

Parsons has it as #5 for #22, #30, #66, and Richardson/Williams. That'd be like trading a mid-high first in startup for a pair of picks near the 2/3 turn, plus extras. Seems like good value. Bloom has it as #2 for #16, #49, #56, #65, and Sanders. That's quite the haul. On the other hand, Pasquino has it as #1 for #35, #45, #48, and Williams/Sanders. Presumably he'd think that was a brutally bad offer. By DLF's June ADP, it's #2 for #10, #47, #66, #69, and #115. Again, that's quite the haul.

In the end, that one seems to clearly fall in the "fair trade, even if I wouldn't do it personally" category.

It is really Calvin + 4 currently rostered players for Lacy, et al.

I suppose it is league dependent to a degree, for two reasons. First, the more players rostered overall, the more likely I would be to have 4 players rostered I wouldn't mind parting with. Second, lineup size matters; the owner giving up Calvin is taking max production out of one lineup spot... how many of these other players will start? Will they result in a net gain in points scored? I seriously doubt that.

For my dynasty teams, these two criteria are why I wouldn't even consider that deal.

I own Calvin in one 10 team non-PPR Superflex league with 22 man rosters, I'd probably have to cut

 

[Adam Harstad]

I am actively negotiating to trade him and posted in Assistant coach and have gotten feedback that me selling Calvin and 4 end of roster fillers like Jacquizz for Lacy, Trent Richardson, ODB, Terrance Williams and Emmanuel Sanders is a case of me either being low on Calvin or high on Lacy..seems like a big haul for him.

:X

No way I would even consider that.

Eh, I don't think it's a bad offer at all. By my rankings, that's #1 overall for #14, #63, #73, and a pair of decent receiving prospects. I wouldn't do it, but I recognize that a lot of people are lower on Calvin or higher on Lacy than I am, so I don't think it's unreasonable.

Parsons has it as #5 for #22, #30, #66, and Richardson/Williams. That'd be like trading a mid-high first in startup for a pair of picks near the 2/3 turn, plus extras. Seems like good value. Bloom has it as #2 for #16, #49, #56, #65, and Sanders. That's quite the haul. On the other hand, Pasquino has it as #1 for #35, #45, #48, and Williams/Sanders. Presumably he'd think that was a brutally bad offer. By DLF's June ADP, it's #2 for #10, #47, #66, #69, and #115. Again, that's quite the haul.

In the end, that one seems to clearly fall in the "fair trade, even if I wouldn't do it personally" category.

It is really Calvin + 4 currently rostered players for Lacy, et al.

I suppose it is league dependent to a degree, for two reasons. First, the more players rostered overall, the more likely I would be to have 4 players rostered I wouldn't mind parting with. Second, lineup size matters; the owner giving up Calvin is taking max production out of one lineup spot... how many of these other players will start? Will they result in a net gain in points scored? I seriously doubt that.

For my dynasty teams, these two criteria are why I wouldn't even consider that deal.

Agreed. I wouldn't do it. Hell, like I said, I gave Demaryius, a mid-1st, and Gerhart for Calvin last month. I'm a big believer that Calvin Johnson isn't just the #1 dynasty WR, he's in a tier unto himself. I just don't think I'd blink if I saw that particular trade pop up in the activity log for any of my leagues.

 

[jeaton6]

What's interesting to me is there seems to be a delta between where established leagues value him and where startups value him. It seems like he's nearly untouchable in established leagues where he can command one of the other top 4 receivers + +. But in my 4 startups this year he's gone 1.1, 1.4, 1.6, 1.8 and I see similar trends in the other real startups folks have posted in the SP. I know it's a small sample size but at least these are real leagues vs DLF and DFW which are also small sample size and I put more faith in real drafts than mocks.

So, what gives and is this a market inefficiency that can be exploited in startups?

 

[valhallan]

Startups love new toys. Simple as that.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Startups love new toys. Simple as that.

I think it's more than that. Startups represent a level playing field, while established leagues have had several years worth of iteration to allow the best teams to compound their advantage (and the worst teams to compound their disadvantage). I never would have traded Demaryius, Gerhart, and a first for Calvin right out of the gate. Each year I'm not a competitor for the title is a year of Calvin's career that is wasted, and fresh off the startup talent is evenly distributed enough that I can't be quite sure if I'm a competitor or not. In the established league where I made that trade, I'm QUITE sure I'm a competitor. I know none of Calvin's production will be wasted, so the fact that it occurs in a condensed time frame becomes less risky. Demaryius' youth is a hedge, but it's a hedge I don't need.

Additionally, in an established league teams will have had a chance to acquire some expendable depth. If you have Toby Gerhart in a startup, you're counting on him as a starter. For me, he was stuck behind Peterson, Charles, and Bell. I'm much more comfortable just tossing him into trades in that case.

Startup values deviate from established values not because either is necessarily inefficient, but because the degree of certainty and concentration of depth are totally different, and that drastically changes the calculus.

Edit: this is the exact same reason why you'll never get Peyton Manning or Drew Brees as cheaply in established leagues as you will in startups. Try offering the Brees owner one of the players near him in ADP, straight up. See how long it takes the owner to stop laughing.

 

[Sabertooth]

The problem in my leagues is that hope spring eternal and while I may see a team that would be luck to go .500, the owner of that team seems to think he's a playoff contender. Some owners always think they are in the window.

 

[Adam Harstad]

The problem in my leagues is that hope spring eternal and while I may see a team that would be luck to go .500, the owner of that team seems to think he's a playoff contender. Some owners always think they are in the window.

To some extent, that's also expected. If everyone valued players the same, you could add up everyone's expected winning percentages and it'd total around 100%. Instead, people are generally higher than consensus on their own players, which means they think they have a better chance than pure market value would suggest. Since everyone feels this way, the total expected winning percentage is well over 100%. Insofar as it's a bias, it's a universal bias towards overconfidence. Everyone thinks they're beating the market with their moves, which is why they make them. Obviously half of them will prove wrong, though it's sometimes difficult to tell in advance which half it will be.

 

[Sabertooth]

I agree. People are delusional. And yet my powerhouses continue to fail me in week 16

 

[CalBear]

To some extent, that's also expected. If everyone valued players the same, you could add up everyone's expected winning percentages and it'd total around 100%. Instead, people are generally higher than consensus on their own players, which means they think they have a better chance than pure market value would suggest. Since everyone feels this way, the total expected winning percentage is well over 100%.

Incidentally, this is what caused the financial crisis (institutions consistently over-valuing derivative securities that they held). Bad loans were just the trigger.

 

[FBG_Dave]

Wide receivers produce for far longer than running backs. Even if you trade him for a stud RB, that RB's window may only be 2-3 years of high production. Johnson could still be produceing at a high level in 2-3 years.

To me, C.J. is one of those players that you have to ride until someon proves that he can't be ridden anymore.

 

[Faust]

Why Calvin Johnson is a nightmare

 

[RoxSolid]

I'm considering putting him on the block. I've had a good team for many years, but my team is getting older now and I'm lacking depth. If i can turn Calvin (aging but still producing into two young studs, i think it's the right long term move).

My initial trade talk has started with:

Calvin and any of my RBs (not named Doug Martin), which is a group of Gerhart, Ridley, R Bush, C Johnson, F Jackson for M Ball, R Cobb, a defense, and a 2nd rounder.

 

[John 14:6]

Why Calvin Johnson is a nightmare

Thanks for the article, Faust!

I have Johnson in a league where I'll be able to sign him to a 2, 3, or 4-year contract after the season. I only have two of each to give to my players, but I'm planning to give Johnson a 4-year instead of my younger players like Lacy, Cruz, and Murray. I can see him putting up good seasons for the duration of that deal...

 

[smbkrypt24]

I'm considering putting him on the block. I've had a good team for many years, but my team is getting older now and I'm lacking depth. If i can turn Calvin (aging but still producing into two young studs, i think it's the right long term move).

My initial trade talk has started with:

Calvin and any of my RBs (not named Doug Martin), which is a group of Gerhart, Ridley, R Bush, C Johnson, F Jackson for M Ball, R Cobb, a defense, and a 2nd rounder.

I think you are not getting enough value for Calvin. I wouldn't trade Calvin alone for that package.

 

[cstu]

I'm considering putting him on the block. I've had a good team for many years, but my team is getting older now and I'm lacking depth. If i can turn Calvin (aging but still producing into two young studs, i think it's the right long term move).

My initial trade talk has started with:

Calvin and any of my RBs (not named Doug Martin), which is a group of Gerhart, Ridley, R Bush, C Johnson, F Jackson for M Ball, R Cobb, a defense, and a 2nd rounder.

I think you are not getting enough value for Calvin. I wouldn't trade Calvin alone for that package.

It might not be enough but not awful either as Ball and Cobb are two late 1st round startup picks.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I'm considering putting him on the block. I've had a good team for many years, but my team is getting older now and I'm lacking depth. If i can turn Calvin (aging but still producing into two young studs, i think it's the right long term move).

My initial trade talk has started with:

Calvin and any of my RBs (not named Doug Martin), which is a group of Gerhart, Ridley, R Bush, C Johnson, F Jackson for M Ball, R Cobb, a defense, and a 2nd rounder.

I think you are not getting enough value for Calvin. I wouldn't trade Calvin alone for that package.

It might not be enough but not awful either as Ball and Cobb are two late 1st round startup picks.

Ball's not going anywhere near the 1st round according to DLF ADP. He's been pretty solidly a 3rd rounder over the last four months worth of mocks. I also think that Cobb is a hair overrated; I don't think his current ADP (right around the 1/2 turn) prices in the risk of him leaving Green Bay. Though there's a big talent drop towards the end of the 1st round in startups and I don't know who I'd take there instead of Cobb (well, I do- I'd take Gronk and laugh all the way to the bank, but that's going to be too rich for Gronk for most people).

But I agree it's not an awful trade. That's another one where if it showed up in the transaction log in one of my leagues I wouldn't even raise an eyebrow.

 

[Shutout]

I am actively negotiating to trade him and posted in Assistant coach and have gotten feedback that me selling Calvin and 4 end of roster fillers like Jacquizz for Lacy, Trent Richardson, ODB, Terrance Williams and Emmanuel Sanders is a case of me either being low on Calvin or high on Lacy..seems like a big haul for him.

:X

No way I would even consider that.

Eh, I don't think it's a bad offer at all. By my rankings, that's #1 overall for #14, #63, #73, and a pair of decent receiving prospects. I wouldn't do it, but I recognize that a lot of people are lower on Calvin or higher on Lacy than I am, so I don't think it's unreasonable.

Parsons has it as #5 for #22, #30, #66, and Richardson/Williams. That'd be like trading a mid-high first in startup for a pair of picks near the 2/3 turn, plus extras. Seems like good value. Bloom has it as #2 for #16, #49, #56, #65, and Sanders. That's quite the haul. On the other hand, Pasquino has it as #1 for #35, #45, #48, and Williams/Sanders. Presumably he'd think that was a brutally bad offer. By DLF's June ADP, it's #2 for #10, #47, #66, #69, and #115. Again, that's quite the haul.

In the end, that one seems to clearly fall in the "fair trade, even if I wouldn't do it personally" category.

It is really Calvin + 4 currently rostered players for Lacy, et al.

I suppose it is league dependent to a degree, for two reasons. First, the more players rostered overall, the more likely I would be to have 4 players rostered I wouldn't mind parting with. Second, lineup size matters; the owner giving up Calvin is taking max production out of one lineup spot... how many of these other players will start? Will they result in a net gain in points scored? I seriously doubt that.

For my dynasty teams, these two criteria are why I wouldn't even consider that deal.

Agreed. I wouldn't do it. Hell, like I said, I gave Demaryius, a mid-1st, and Gerhart for Calvin last month. I'm a big believer that Calvin Johnson isn't just the #1 dynasty WR, he's in a tier unto himself. I just don't think I'd blink if I saw that particular trade pop up in the activity log for any of my leagues.

I think you are living in 2012. He is not in a tier unto himself anymore. Julio, AJ, DT, Dez, maybe somebody else I've forgotten like Alshon or Brandon...Any and all of those guys might be right there or even better this year.

I know its blasphemy to say but Calvin is no longer in that Jimmy Graham advantage arena anymore.

It is not outside the realm of possibility that, value/perception-wise in FF, in as little as a year from now, he might be looked at as Andre Johnson is now. And that's an interesting comparable because it was just 2010 or so when AJ was 28-29 and he was the #1 dynasty WR. So maybe a trade for Eddie Lacy and some parts might not be a bad move at all in as little as 12-18 months out, especially if Lacy does what he seems to be hyped to this season. If that guy comes out and puts up 14-16TDs and 1300+ yards and some good number of receptions, he's going to be in that age/team/production level of holding LT type value.

Not saying it will go like that but just a thought that once any WR hits 30, the perception can change dramatically quickly. When you're 29 and have this talent/production, we readily accept that this guy can be this for 3-5 more years. When you're 31, with nothing changing, it's a whole different story.

 

[valhallan]

I'm considering putting him on the block. I've had a good team for many years, but my team is getting older now and I'm lacking depth. If i can turn Calvin (aging but still producing into two young studs, i think it's the right long term move).

My initial trade talk has started with:

Calvin and any of my RBs (not named Doug Martin), which is a group of Gerhart, Ridley, R Bush, C Johnson, F Jackson for M Ball, R Cobb, a defense, and a 2nd rounder.

I think you are not getting enough value for Calvin. I wouldn't trade Calvin alone for that package.

It might not be enough but not awful either as Ball and Cobb are two late 1st round startup picks.

Ball's not going anywhere near the 1st round according to DLF ADP. He's been pretty solidly a 3rd rounder over the last four months worth of mocks. I also think that Cobb is a hair overrated; I don't think his current ADP (right around the 1/2 turn) prices in the risk of him leaving Green Bay. Though there's a big talent drop towards the end of the 1st round in startups and I don't know who I'd take there instead of Cobb (well, I do- I'd take Gronk and laugh all the way to the bank, but that's going to be too rich for Gronk for most people).

But I agree it's not an awful trade. That's another one where if it showed up in the transaction log in one of my leagues I wouldn't even raise an eyebrow.

To corroborate Ball's draft position, in my most recent start-up in which guys were tripping over themselves to draft youth, Ball went 35th overall. Calvin went 1st.

 

[Ted Mullins]

Seems like Ball's value probably has to take a big hit once Peyton retires, right? That seems to be a big part of his appeal now.

I think time to sell depends entirely on your situation. I have Calvin for 3 more years in a contract dynasty league where I am strong and I get a little uneasy because he seems to always be dinged up, but the combination of age/recent production/offense makes me think that he is still awhile away from a steep drop off. I could definitely see trading him if you aren't in contention and can get a nice haul though - I don't think his perceived value gets higher as he ages and guys like DT and Dez can conceivably be considered in the same tier.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I am actively negotiating to trade him and posted in Assistant coach and have gotten feedback that me selling Calvin and 4 end of roster fillers like Jacquizz for Lacy, Trent Richardson, ODB, Terrance Williams and Emmanuel Sanders is a case of me either being low on Calvin or high on Lacy..seems like a big haul for him.

:X

No way I would even consider that.

Eh, I don't think it's a bad offer at all. By my rankings, that's #1 overall for #14, #63, #73, and a pair of decent receiving prospects. I wouldn't do it, but I recognize that a lot of people are lower on Calvin or higher on Lacy than I am, so I don't think it's unreasonable.

Parsons has it as #5 for #22, #30, #66, and Richardson/Williams. That'd be like trading a mid-high first in startup for a pair of picks near the 2/3 turn, plus extras. Seems like good value. Bloom has it as #2 for #16, #49, #56, #65, and Sanders. That's quite the haul. On the other hand, Pasquino has it as #1 for #35, #45, #48, and Williams/Sanders. Presumably he'd think that was a brutally bad offer. By DLF's June ADP, it's #2 for #10, #47, #66, #69, and #115. Again, that's quite the haul.

In the end, that one seems to clearly fall in the "fair trade, even if I wouldn't do it personally" category.

It is really Calvin + 4 currently rostered players for Lacy, et al.

I suppose it is league dependent to a degree, for two reasons. First, the more players rostered overall, the more likely I would be to have 4 players rostered I wouldn't mind parting with. Second, lineup size matters; the owner giving up Calvin is taking max production out of one lineup spot... how many of these other players will start? Will they result in a net gain in points scored? I seriously doubt that.

For my dynasty teams, these two criteria are why I wouldn't even consider that deal.

Agreed. I wouldn't do it. Hell, like I said, I gave Demaryius, a mid-1st, and Gerhart for Calvin last month. I'm a big believer that Calvin Johnson isn't just the #1 dynasty WR, he's in a tier unto himself. I just don't think I'd blink if I saw that particular trade pop up in the activity log for any of my leagues.

I think you are living in 2012. He is not in a tier unto himself anymore. Julio, AJ, DT, Dez, maybe somebody else I've forgotten like Alshon or Brandon...Any and all of those guys might be right there or even better this year.

I know its blasphemy to say but Calvin is no longer in that Jimmy Graham advantage arena anymore.

It is not outside the realm of possibility that, value/perception-wise in FF, in as little as a year from now, he might be looked at as Andre Johnson is now. And that's an interesting comparable because it was just 2010 or so when AJ was 28-29 and he was the #1 dynasty WR. So maybe a trade for Eddie Lacy and some parts might not be a bad move at all in as little as 12-18 months out, especially if Lacy does what he seems to be hyped to this season. If that guy comes out and puts up 14-16TDs and 1300+ yards and some good number of receptions, he's going to be in that age/team/production level of holding LT type value.

Not saying it will go like that but just a thought that once any WR hits 30, the perception can change dramatically quickly. When you're 29 and have this talent/production, we readily accept that this guy can be this for 3-5 more years. When you're 31, with nothing changing, it's a whole different story.

Dodds has Calvin outscoring the #2 WR by 28 points and the #4 WR by 35 points, which is about the same as the gap between the WR2-4 guys and the WR8-12 guys. Calvin is likely to outscore the other "first tier" dynasty WRs by as much as the other "first tier" dynasty WRs outscore the second-tier guys, at least in the short run. And in the long run... I'd feel much happier betting on Calvin Johnson, (one of the most ridiculous athletic outliers the league has ever seen and a sure-fire first-ballot Hall of Famer), playing well into his thirties than I would betting on Demaryius, Dez, Green, or Julio. In terms of expected games remaining, I might expect those guys to have a 20 game advantage over Calvin. But Calvin will outscore them all by so much on a per-game basis that yes, for me, he's a tier unto himself in dynasty.

 

[cstu]

Seems like Ball's value probably has to take a big hit once Peyton retires, right? That seems to be a big part of his appeal now.

I think time to sell depends entirely on your situation. I have Calvin for 3 more years in a contract dynasty league where I am strong and I get a little uneasy because he seems to always be dinged up, but the combination of age/recent production/offense makes me think that he is still awhile away from a steep drop off. I could definitely see trading him if you aren't in contention and can get a nice haul though - I don't think his perceived value gets higher as he ages and guys like DT and Dez can conceivably be considered in the same tier.

I wouldn't bet on anyone else for the next 3 years.

 

[cstu]

Dodds has Calvin outscoring the #2 WR by 28 points and the #4 WR by 35 points, which is about the same as the gap between the WR2-4 guys and the WR8-12 guys. Calvin is likely to outscore the other "first tier" dynasty WRs by as much as the other "first tier" dynasty WRs outscore the second-tier guys, at least in the short run. And in the long run... I'd feel much happier betting on Calvin Johnson, (one of the most ridiculous athletic outliers the league has ever seen and a sure-fire first-ballot Hall of Famer), playing well into his thirties than I would betting on Demaryius, Dez, Green, or Julio. In terms of expected games remaining, I might expect those guys to have a 20 game advantage over Calvin. But Calvin will outscore them all by so much on a per-game basis that yes, for me, he's a tier unto himself in dynasty.

At what point do you prefer someone younger? A 30 yo Calvin vs. a 27 yo Green?

I also expect Calvin to play well into his 30's but I expected the same from Fitzgerald.

 

[ZWK]

I am actively negotiating to trade him and posted in Assistant coach and have gotten feedback that me selling Calvin and 4 end of roster fillers like Jacquizz for Lacy, Trent Richardson, ODB, Terrance Williams and Emmanuel Sanders is a case of me either being low on Calvin or high on Lacy..seems like a big haul for him.

:X

No way I would even consider that.

Eh, I don't think it's a bad offer at all. By my rankings, that's #1 overall for #14, #63, #73, and a pair of decent receiving prospects. I wouldn't do it, but I recognize that a lot of people are lower on Calvin or higher on Lacy than I am, so I don't think it's unreasonable.

Parsons has it as #5 for #22, #30, #66, and Richardson/Williams. That'd be like trading a mid-high first in startup for a pair of picks near the 2/3 turn, plus extras. Seems like good value. Bloom has it as #2 for #16, #49, #56, #65, and Sanders. That's quite the haul. On the other hand, Pasquino has it as #1 for #35, #45, #48, and Williams/Sanders. Presumably he'd think that was a brutally bad offer. By DLF's June ADP, it's #2 for #10, #47, #66, #69, and #115. Again, that's quite the haul.

In the end, that one seems to clearly fall in the "fair trade, even if I wouldn't do it personally" category.

It is really Calvin + 4 currently rostered players for Lacy, et al.

I suppose it is league dependent to a degree, for two reasons. First, the more players rostered overall, the more likely I would be to have 4 players rostered I wouldn't mind parting with. Second, lineup size matters; the owner giving up Calvin is taking max production out of one lineup spot... how many of these other players will start? Will they result in a net gain in points scored? I seriously doubt that.

For my dynasty teams, these two criteria are why I wouldn't even consider that deal.

Agreed. I wouldn't do it. Hell, like I said, I gave Demaryius, a mid-1st, and Gerhart for Calvin last month. I'm a big believer that Calvin Johnson isn't just the #1 dynasty WR, he's in a tier unto himself. I just don't think I'd blink if I saw that particular trade pop up in the activity log for any of my leagues.

I think you are living in 2012. He is not in a tier unto himself anymore. Julio, AJ, DT, Dez, maybe somebody else I've forgotten like Alshon or Brandon...Any and all of those guys might be right there or even better this year.

I know its blasphemy to say but Calvin is no longer in that Jimmy Graham advantage arena anymore.

It is not outside the realm of possibility that, value/perception-wise in FF, in as little as a year from now, he might be looked at as Andre Johnson is now. And that's an interesting comparable because it was just 2010 or so when AJ was 28-29 and he was the #1 dynasty WR. So maybe a trade for Eddie Lacy and some parts might not be a bad move at all in as little as 12-18 months out, especially if Lacy does what he seems to be hyped to this season. If that guy comes out and puts up 14-16TDs and 1300+ yards and some good number of receptions, he's going to be in that age/team/production level of holding LT type value.

Not saying it will go like that but just a thought that once any WR hits 30, the perception can change dramatically quickly. When you're 29 and have this talent/production, we readily accept that this guy can be this for 3-5 more years. When you're 31, with nothing changing, it's a whole different story.

There's a pretty good chance that someone from the Green/Demaryius/etc. tier will put up numbers similar to Calvin's (Gordon did it last year, Marshall the year before), but you don't get to pick the field. You have to pick one player, and Calvin still has a significant edge over any other individual wide receiver.

 

[Tau837]

There's a pretty good chance that someone from the Green/Demaryius/etc. tier will put up numbers similar to Calvin's (Gordon did it last year, Marshall the year before), but you don't get to pick the field. You have to pick one player, and Calvin still has a significant edge over any other individual wide receiver.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

It is not outside the realm of possibility that, value/perception-wise in FF, in as little as a year from now, he might be looked at as Andre Johnson is now. And that's an interesting comparable because it was just 2010 or so when AJ was 28-29 and he was the #1 dynasty WR.

2010 was four years ago. Four years from now, Lacy is going to be a 28 year old running back with as little value as a 32-33 year old receiver.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Dodds has Calvin outscoring the #2 WR by 28 points and the #4 WR by 35 points, which is about the same as the gap between the WR2-4 guys and the WR8-12 guys. Calvin is likely to outscore the other "first tier" dynasty WRs by as much as the other "first tier" dynasty WRs outscore the second-tier guys, at least in the short run. And in the long run... I'd feel much happier betting on Calvin Johnson, (one of the most ridiculous athletic outliers the league has ever seen and a sure-fire first-ballot Hall of Famer), playing well into his thirties than I would betting on Demaryius, Dez, Green, or Julio. In terms of expected games remaining, I might expect those guys to have a 20 game advantage over Calvin. But Calvin will outscore them all by so much on a per-game basis that yes, for me, he's a tier unto himself in dynasty.

At what point do you prefer someone younger? A 30 yo Calvin vs. a 27 yo Green?

I also expect Calvin to play well into his 30's but I expected the same from Fitzgerald.

Hard to say- it's going to depend a lot on how Calvin looks at 29 and Green looks at 26. Like I said, based on what we know today, I would bet on Calvin Johnson as more likely to still be excelling at age 34 than A.J. Green is. Part of that is because Calvin is a better talent. Part of that is because Calvin is already closer to the goal, so there's less time for something to derail him. So Green might have a 3-year advantage in chronological age, but that doesn't translate into a 3-year advantage in expected games remaining. It translates more to a 1.5 year advantage.

In standard scoring, over the last three seasons Calvin has averaged 15.5 fantasy points per game. The #2-6 receivers are exactly who you would expect (Green, Dez, Demaryius, Marshall, Julio), and they're very tightly packed, all finishing between 11.85 and 12.05 fantasy points per game. That's a 3.5 PPG drop, which is just a crushing advantage. It's basically the difference between that #2-6 pack and guys like Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin, or T.Y. Hilton. That comparison isn't totally fair to the younger guys, but there's really not any way to split the data where Calvin isn't outproducing the second tier by as much as the second tier is outproducing the 3rd tier, if not more. If you look at individual seasons (minimum 8 games played), Calvin Johnson has three of the top five fantasy seasons over the last three years. Nobody else even has two of the top ten. Next best is Demaryius (4th and 13th best), Green (10th and 12th best), or Marshall (6th and 13th best). And that's despite the fact that Calvin was historically unlucky over that span.

To me, the debate between Calvin Johnson and the next tier is similar to the debate between, say, Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck (or Drew Brees and Matt Ryan, or Jamaal Charles and Doug Martin). Yes, the younger guy is talented and should produce really strong fantasy numbers, and his career is going to be a lot longer... but I expect the older guy to just crush them in fantasy points. And since each point of VBD is more valuable than the point before, I would rather have three more years of #1 overall WR production than four more years of WR5 production.

Or, to put it another way... in 2013, according to PFR, Calvin scored 130 VBD*. In 2012, he scored 102 VBD. In 2011, he scored 149 VBD. That's an average of 127 per year. The #5 WR over that span averaged 79.3 VBD. Over the last three years, three years of Calvin Johnson has quite literally been worth 4 or 4.5 years of #5 overall WR production. Now, past results do not guarantee future production, and PFR's VBD baselines are a bit wonky (they use WR30 as the baseline instead of WR36, which does have an impact), but that's a pretty clear illustration of the concept, at least.

(*prorating his stats to 16 games)

Edit: Another point- let's say Peyton Manning, Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan, Tony Romo, and Andy Dalton all got hit by a bus tomorrow. Which of the "big 5" receivers do you think would be most impacted? Which would be least? Personally, I think Calvin would weather a backup QB a lot better than the other guys, which means Calvin is actually a less risky bet- there are fewer ancillary injury concerns. That's part of the reason I like Percy Harvin so much- if he could tear it up with Christian Ponder, he can tear it up with anyone.

 

[jurb26]

Hard to say- it's going to depend a lot on how Calvin looks at 29 and Green looks at 26. Like I said, based on what we know today, I would bet on Calvin Johnson as more likely to still be excelling at age 34 than A.J. Green is. Part of that is because Calvin is a better talent. Part of that is because Calvin is already closer to the goal, so there's less time for something to derail him. So Green might have a 3-year advantage in chronological age, but that doesn't translate into a 3-year advantage in expected games remaining. It translates more to a 1.5 year advantage.

This makes absolutely no sense. The goal isn't to have a better player at a predetermined age. The goal is to have the better player at any given point in time. It doesn't matter a single bit if Calvin is the better player at 34 than Green is. Green will not be 34 when Calvin is. Green will be 31. Green at 31 will almost certainly be better than Calvin at 34. The games remaining thing is also somewhat useless. If Calvin plays until he's 40 am I supposed to care? Only if he is able to produce at a high level should I care. So expected games means little. It's expected impact games that matters. Green is just now entering his PRIME, 26. Calvin is, for all intents and purposes, exiting his as he turns 30. That's not to say that he can't be productive at that age, lord knows he's a freak capable of it. It's just the simply probabilities. Calvin being more talented is a rather subjective thing as well. People are infatuated far too much on size and speed ratios and without a doubt Calvin is as rare as it gets in that regard. There is more to playing WR in the NFL however and the encapsulation of talent runs much deeper than that. I'd say Green is just as talented as Calvin.

 

[pghrob]

I had Jerry Rice. Cut him in 2000 at age 38. He had 2 productive years after that.

I had Marvin Harrison. Traded him midway thru 2004 at age 32. He had 2 productive years after that.

I had Andre Johnson. Traded him before last year at age 31. Productive year last year and should have 3 or so more if he wants to and can find a good team to play for.

Anyone trading Calvin Johnson at age 29 will regret it.

I am regretful of having traded Tony Gonzales after his 1st season in Atlanta for a 3rd round rookie pick.

 

[Shutout]

It is not outside the realm of possibility that, value/perception-wise in FF, in as little as a year from now, he might be looked at as Andre Johnson is now. And that's an interesting comparable because it was just 2010 or so when AJ was 28-29 and he was the #1 dynasty WR.

2010 was four years ago. Four years from now, Lacy is going to be a 28 year old running back with as little value as a 32-33 year old receiver.

You completely miss the message. It is:

A year from now, you will have Calvin at an age that AJ was at in 2011 and in a similar situation (previously the top ranked guy but now entering that 30-ish age with talent breathing down his neck). You also will have Eddie Lacy at that time (a year from now) at 23-24 years old. Compare what might be the value of those two players at that time.

I get it guys: you all get on a great name and ride that pony like they are immortal but ALL players tip the scale at some point and you are ignoring key input here. Calvin has had issues with his knees, leg, and back. He has missed games as a result. He is not 25 anymore. He just lost an OC that might have the single-most impressive resume for building #1 Wrs in that last decade and a half. And what did they replace that coaching talent with? The guy that helped Indy get Andrew Luck.

 

[Shutout]

I am actively negotiating to trade him and posted in Assistant coach and have gotten feedback that me selling Calvin and 4 end of roster fillers like Jacquizz for Lacy, Trent Richardson, ODB, Terrance Williams and Emmanuel Sanders is a case of me either being low on Calvin or high on Lacy..seems like a big haul for him.

:X

No way I would even consider that.

Eh, I don't think it's a bad offer at all. By my rankings, that's #1 overall for #14, #63, #73, and a pair of decent receiving prospects. I wouldn't do it, but I recognize that a lot of people are lower on Calvin or higher on Lacy than I am, so I don't think it's unreasonable.

Parsons has it as #5 for #22, #30, #66, and Richardson/Williams. That'd be like trading a mid-high first in startup for a pair of picks near the 2/3 turn, plus extras. Seems like good value. Bloom has it as #2 for #16, #49, #56, #65, and Sanders. That's quite the haul. On the other hand, Pasquino has it as #1 for #35, #45, #48, and Williams/Sanders. Presumably he'd think that was a brutally bad offer. By DLF's June ADP, it's #2 for #10, #47, #66, #69, and #115. Again, that's quite the haul.

In the end, that one seems to clearly fall in the "fair trade, even if I wouldn't do it personally" category.

It is really Calvin + 4 currently rostered players for Lacy, et al.

I suppose it is league dependent to a degree, for two reasons. First, the more players rostered overall, the more likely I would be to have 4 players rostered I wouldn't mind parting with. Second, lineup size matters; the owner giving up Calvin is taking max production out of one lineup spot... how many of these other players will start? Will they result in a net gain in points scored? I seriously doubt that.

For my dynasty teams, these two criteria are why I wouldn't even consider that deal.

Agreed. I wouldn't do it. Hell, like I said, I gave Demaryius, a mid-1st, and Gerhart for Calvin last month. I'm a big believer that Calvin Johnson isn't just the #1 dynasty WR, he's in a tier unto himself. I just don't think I'd blink if I saw that particular trade pop up in the activity log for any of my leagues.

I think you are living in 2012. He is not in a tier unto himself anymore. Julio, AJ, DT, Dez, maybe somebody else I've forgotten like Alshon or Brandon...Any and all of those guys might be right there or even better this year.

I know its blasphemy to say but Calvin is no longer in that Jimmy Graham advantage arena anymore.

It is not outside the realm of possibility that, value/perception-wise in FF, in as little as a year from now, he might be looked at as Andre Johnson is now. And that's an interesting comparable because it was just 2010 or so when AJ was 28-29 and he was the #1 dynasty WR. So maybe a trade for Eddie Lacy and some parts might not be a bad move at all in as little as 12-18 months out, especially if Lacy does what he seems to be hyped to this season. If that guy comes out and puts up 14-16TDs and 1300+ yards and some good number of receptions, he's going to be in that age/team/production level of holding LT type value.

Not saying it will go like that but just a thought that once any WR hits 30, the perception can change dramatically quickly. When you're 29 and have this talent/production, we readily accept that this guy can be this for 3-5 more years. When you're 31, with nothing changing, it's a whole different story.

Dodds has Calvin outscoring the #2 WR by 28 points and the #4 WR by 35 points, which is about the same as the gap between the WR2-4 guys and the WR8-12 guys. Calvin is likely to outscore the other "first tier" dynasty WRs by as much as the other "first tier" dynasty WRs outscore the second-tier guys, at least in the short run. And in the long run... I'd feel much happier betting on Calvin Johnson, (one of the most ridiculous athletic outliers the league has ever seen and a sure-fire first-ballot Hall of Famer), playing well into his thirties than I would betting on Demaryius, Dez, Green, or Julio. In terms of expected games remaining, I might expect those guys to have a 20 game advantage over Calvin. But Calvin will outscore them all by so much on a per-game basis that yes, for me, he's a tier unto himself in dynasty.

I like Dodds as much as anyone but he's not 100% correct on all things and I seriously doubt this is the case this year.

As a matter of fact, it didn't even happen last year when DT outscored him and you can't say "well, Calvin didn't play all games as a defense because that is a very REAL considering factor. I would not be surprised if Calvin finished #5 this year because I am not ignoring the cumulative leg, knee and back injuries that I KNOW add up (Seen it too many times with other WRs) and I definitely not ignoring the impact the loss of their OC may have, combined with the "addition" of their new head coach.

Oddly enough, this reminds me SO much of the Denver Rb situation last year where people just kept pointing to the shiny toy, pointing to the shiny toy, and completely ignoring the real life going on with the people on the field. I know Calvin is Calvin, has been Calvin, and will continue to be Calvin. I'm not completely going against him. I just see enough chinks in the armor COMBINED WITH some great challenging talent from other WRS out there that are in PRIME opportunistic spots this year. DT couldn't be handed a better scenario. Dez Bryant is being gifted by the fantasy gods ad naseum. Julio Jones, if healthy, WILL outscore Calvin this year (yes, that's an IF but on a game by game basis last year, through the first 4 games in which both played, Julio already had him by almost 20 points last year).

It is just one of those situations where you can't just look at the name anymore and say "well, he's Megatron." That's not good enough anymore because even if he IS Megatron, he still has to deal with losing an awesome OC and he still has to deal with Julio, DT, Dez, Marshall, Alshon, etc who in their own rights, can all prevent from being outscored by Calvin by 30 points.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

It is not outside the realm of possibility that, value/perception-wise in FF, in as little as a year from now, he might be looked at as Andre Johnson is now. And that's an interesting comparable because it was just 2010 or so when AJ was 28-29 and he was the #1 dynasty WR.

2010 was four years ago. Four years from now, Lacy is going to be a 28 year old running back with as little value as a 32-33 year old receiver.

You completely miss the message. It is:

A year from now, you will have Calvin at an age that AJ was at in 2011 and in a similar situation (previously the top ranked guy but now entering that 30-ish age with talent breathing down his neck). You also will have Eddie Lacy at that time (a year from now) at 23-24 years old. Compare what might be the value of those two players at that time.

I get it guys: you all get on a great name and ride that pony like they are immortal but ALL players tip the scale at some point and you are ignoring key input here. Calvin has had issues with his knees, leg, and back. He has missed games as a result. He is not 25 anymore. He just lost an OC that might have the single-most impressive resume for building #1 Wrs in that last decade and a half. And what did they replace that coaching talent with? The guy that helped Indy get Andrew Luck.

Andre Johnson also missed more than half the season in 2011 and while yes, injuries have a greater affect on an older player's value than a younger player's, they also have a greater affect on guys who get most of their value from situation rather than talent. A la Lacy.

The real issue here though is, what, are you planning on turning over this roster spot every year? Is the plan really to trade Calvin for Lacy and then next year trade Lacy for someone a few years younger and then the next year trade that guy for someone a few years younger and so on? Because that doesn't work. Every time you turn that spot over into a younger, less proven player, you run the risk that the less proven player will be the next Kevin Jones. That includes Lacy himself, who could just as easily join the long list of strong rookie RBs that never repeated that success.

You see, the thing about Andre Johnson is that, while his value has taken a hit, his performance has not. By flipping over that roster position every year your chances are very high that you're going to end up with a dud at that roster spot due to underperformance of an unproven player well before the ~4 years that Calvin Johnson stops performing as a WR1.

If you're not planning on flipping that roster spot every year, then their value going into next year is irrelevant because their long term value is essentially the same. A RB in his prime has no more time left as a relevant fantasy asset than a WR coming out of his prime does. If you'd traded Andre Johnson for Rashard Mendenhall or Ray Rice or Arian Foster prior to 2011 you wouldn't really be sitting any better right now.

So essentially I'm saying two things here.

1) 3-4 years from now age will have just as big an impact on Lacy's value as it does on Calvin's at the same time.

2) While it's true that Lacy's value may be higher 1-year from now, in order to take advantage of that you'd have to make TWO trades for less proven players (both acquiring Lacy and then moving Lacy for another younger player) which each take on a very large amount of risk of their own, and could leave you holding essentially nothing in one year (or right now, just without knowing it), far sooner than the 3-4 year window of Calvin.

Also, not for nothing, but one year from now Lacy will be 25, not "23-24".

 

[Adam Harstad]

Hard to say- it's going to depend a lot on how Calvin looks at 29 and Green looks at 26. Like I said, based on what we know today, I would bet on Calvin Johnson as more likely to still be excelling at age 34 than A.J. Green is. Part of that is because Calvin is a better talent. Part of that is because Calvin is already closer to the goal, so there's less time for something to derail him. So Green might have a 3-year advantage in chronological age, but that doesn't translate into a 3-year advantage in expected games remaining. It translates more to a 1.5 year advantage.

This makes absolutely no sense. The goal isn't to have a better player at a predetermined age. The goal is to have the better player at any given point in time. It doesn't matter a single bit if Calvin is the better player at 34 than Green is. Green will not be 34 when Calvin is. Green will be 31. Green at 31 will almost certainly be better than Calvin at 34. The games remaining thing is also somewhat useless. If Calvin plays until he's 40 am I supposed to care? Only if he is able to produce at a high level should I care. So expected games means little. It's expected impact games that matters. Green is just now entering his PRIME, 26. Calvin is, for all intents and purposes, exiting his as he turns 30. That's not to say that he can't be productive at that age, lord knows he's a freak capable of it. It's just the simply probabilities. Calvin being more talented is a rather subjective thing as well. People are infatuated far too much on size and speed ratios and without a doubt Calvin is as rare as it gets in that regard. There is more to playing WR in the NFL however and the encapsulation of talent runs much deeper than that. I'd say Green is just as talented as Calvin.

The point is that a lot of people look at "3 years younger" and see that as "will play 3 years longer". My point is that that's a flawed assumption.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I like Dodds as much as anyone but he's not 100% correct on all things and I seriously doubt this is the case this year.

Of course not. Dodds is, however, as good as anyone else in the industry. I happen to agree with him on this. If I didn't, then I wouldn't rate Calvin as a tier above the other WRs... but I do, so I do.

Because I believe that Calvin's EV is about 30-40 points higher than any other individual WR's EV, I would prefer 3 years of Calvin to 4 years of any other WR.

 

[cstu]

I like Dodds as much as anyone but he's not 100% correct on all things and I seriously doubt this is the case this year.

Of course not. Dodds is, however, as good as anyone else in the industry. I happen to agree with him on this. If I didn't, then I wouldn't rate Calvin as a tier above the other WRs... but I do, so I do.

Because I believe that Calvin's EV is about 30-40 points higher than any other individual WR's EV, I would prefer 3 years of Calvin to 4 years of any other WR.

I agree and that's why I have Calvin ahead of DT. Where I differ is on the younger studs (Green, Dez, and Julio) who I expect to play at a high level for 3 years longer than Calvin. For me that's worth giving up some short term EV.

 

[cstu]

The point is that a lot of people look at "3 years younger" and see that as "will play 3 years longer". My point is that that's a flawed assumption.

I think there's flaws in every assumption. In Calvin's case it would be that he'll stay healthy and dominate into his 30's. The last WR freak, Randy Moss, only had one dominant season after age 30. Not all of Green, Dez and Julio will outproduce Calvin over the rest of their careers but I like the odds that they will.