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Dynasty & Redraft: RB Matt Jones, Colts (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter ZWK
- Start date
No way./ Way too soon. You may be right about the injury-thing. Time will tell. But his value is far from sky high. He's a talent and to trade him now would be a waste. You need to wait till he does something that opens eyes.
Poor kid. He peaked so soon. His highest ever value was after three preseason games. What a tragic tale.
I don't think anyone in dynasty drafted him with the expectation of him seeing the field a lot in 2015. He was a later-round rookie pick with tremendous potential to be the #1 on that team in 2016.
No one who drafted him earlier this year would let him go for less than a 1st round pick at this point. There's too much potential today.
Redraft is another story altogether. I'd be trying to scare the #### out of the Morris owner and get him to overpay.
Stealthycat
Footballguy
this
Shutout
Footballguy
There have been MANY players who peaked in the pre-season.Poor kid. He peaked so soon. His highest ever value was after three preseason games. What a tragic tale.
And we're talking about perceived value here. Rookie players with a hype machine behind them always generate more buzz. If he was second year player, etc, it wouldn't be the same.
I guarantee you his value is more right this moment than it will be in week 5 of the season. Black dot that and let's chat later.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Guarantee? That's a strong term. Unless he gets hurts between now and then (higher than avg probability given his running style), I think you are dead wrong.
The 'skins will probably be 0-4 at that point and looking to make changes, opening the door for the usurpers on the squad.
What exactly do you think his value is right now? Other than to the Morris owner? I drafted Jones late last night in my draft and there was more than one guy who didn't know who he was yet. I don't think there's a huge amount of Jones hype yet. Not sure what the rush to dump him would be. It's not like he had a great regular season game and you might be able to steal a WR3 for him.There have been MANY players who peaked in the pre-season.Poor kid. He peaked so soon. His highest ever value was after three preseason games. What a tragic tale.
And we're talking about perceived value here. Rookie players with a hype machine behind them always generate more buzz. If he was second year player, etc, it wouldn't be the same.
I guarantee you his value is more right this moment than it will be in week 5 of the season. Black dot that and let's chat later.
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ThisWhat exactly do you think his value is right now? Other than to the Morris owner? I drafted Jones late last night in my draft and there was more than one guy who didn't know who he was yet. I don't think there's a huge amount of Jones hype yet. Not sure what the rush to dump him would be. It's not like he had a great regular season game and you might be able to steal a WR3 for him.There have been MANY players who peaked in the pre-season.Poor kid. He peaked so soon. His highest ever value was after three preseason games. What a tragic tale.
And we're talking about perceived value here. Rookie players with a hype machine behind them always generate more buzz. If he was second year player, etc, it wouldn't be the same.
I guarantee you his value is more right this moment than it will be in week 5 of the season. Black dot that and let's chat later.
He went in the 12th round last night in my draft. Nobody cares about him...he isn't worth much trade wise. Given his running style I don't think he has a long career but i think he can have some big games and then and only then do i think you pull the trigger on trading him
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Someone just flipped him for DGB on my Twitter feed. Half that much value is a screaming sell.
ETA: dynasty.
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Banger
Footballguy
but he's not Alf yet so what are you realistically going to get? It's not like he's risen to a 4th round pick....He's a last round lottery ticket at this point. The drum beat is increasing but he's still not going to get you anything of substance. This is one of those situations that if you want to get paid you need to hold and you either get nothing because it's preseason hype and Alf maintains his current role, Jones's value slightly increases due a more shared backfield but doesn't really push the needle or Alf gets injured/is replace by Jones and you get paid off in spades. To me, I'm in it to win it and will either hope for the home run or I'll crash and burn and cut him in a few weeks....the incremental improvement based on his stock price rise over the past week would be of zero interest to me but that's just my philosophy and how I use the end of my roster.
I play in a keeper league and the Alf owner has M. Bryant as his 3rd/4th wr and I've been debating offering him Jones for Bryant but I highly doubt he makes that move. I think he has to do something when the real bullets are flying to get the value that some may think he has.
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Exactly. Only reason to sell him now is if you have some inside info on an injury he has. Let the kid gain at least one yard in an actual game before prematurely evacuating on him.
Gopher State
Footballguy
I think he is this years version of J Hill
The thing that impressed me the most is his vision. I think we all knew about his ability to run hard and that he would be a tough guy to tackle solo, but I've been impressed with his ability to find the creases and also do some cuts in the open field. He trucked someone good last week down the right sideline. Intriguing guy to keep an eye on.
No. I have Alf in 5 leagues (3 with Jones as cuff) and I'm not worried at all. First off, I live in the DC area and watch every game. I don't think Alf has missed a single game from injury (in my memory). His sporadic production (3 1000 yard seasons back to back to back) is as much a result of the QB dysfunction that we've been dealing with since RG3's sophomore season. I also expect Cousins to be competent (if not more). A number of his interceptions came from receivers running wrong routes and giving up on routes. I expect 8-8 and Alf should be a decent #3 for the season. I'll be playing matchups with him. Like an earlier poster mentioned, Jones will probably get hurt because of his running style.ponchsox said:
I understand that Matt Jones has looked real good but I don't understand why people are so quick to dismiss Morris. He's done nothing to lose his job. He still had over 1000 yards in each of his seasons. If he is going to be catching passes like they say, he's of even more value in PPR than people think.
Two big factors in RB production are strength of schedule and a good offensive line. Washington has a great schedule for RBs, and while I don't know a lot about their offensive line, the FBG rankings by Bitonti has them ranked #9 overall with a run grade of B+. I think Morris, at his current ADP, is a huge value, and if Cousins can keep the offensive generally afloat (admittedly, a big if), Morris could produce at the lower end of RB1 numbers. Just my opinion.
Two big factors in RB production are strength of schedule and a good offensive line. Washington has a great schedule for RBs, and while I don't know a lot about their offensive line, the FBG rankings by Bitonti has them ranked #9 overall with a run grade of B+. I think Morris, at his current ADP, is a huge value, and if Cousins can keep the offensive generally afloat (admittedly, a big if), Morris could produce at the lower end of RB1 numbers. Just my opinion.
LawFitz
Footballguy
What has Alf done to lose the job?
Nothing but with his contract expiring and the flashy rook getting opportunity early season to outproduce per touch, I see a decently probable changing of the guard by midseason, even without an Alf injury.
Of course, the above does assume health for Jones and I agree he is an above-avg RB injury risk.
Nothing but with his contract expiring and the flashy rook getting opportunity early season to outproduce per touch, I see a decently probable changing of the guard by midseason, even without an Alf injury.
Of course, the above does assume health for Jones and I agree he is an above-avg RB injury risk.
Football Jones
Footballguy
I believe Jones is flat out better than Morris right now, but Gruden isn't going to name Jones the starter this early. That's not how it usually works in the NFL. I do think there's a good chance Jones becomes their feature back at some point this season, though.
pinequick
Footballguy
My concern for Morris is that his rushing stats were markedly better with RGIII running the show than with Cousins.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
I picked up Jones as my last pick in my draft instead of a kicker. Now I have to drop a player and pick up a kicker before the season starts. I'm waiting until the last minute to decide but I'm struggling right now. At first I figured I'd just drop Jones but now I'm second guessing.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Seriously whats the difference between him and Zach Zenner? I mean they both have practically blown up the preseason and made a strong case for playing time, the only difference is Zenner has a 29 year old with a knee surgery to beat out, while Jones has nobody to beat out (we've all assumed he wins passing down roles by now right?). Maybe it's just me that sees a massive value difference between the 2, but they are in relatively similar situations right now and make for great targets in my mind.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Jones has significantly more upside. He's guaranteed playing time, there are less heads in the WAS backfield and Jones possesses a 3-down skill set. Best case scenario for Zenner is that he splits carries with Ameer/Theo. Best case scenario for Jones is that he becomes a 3-down workhorse.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
Helu he looked like a better runner, Alf runs lazy to me (like he's running is slow motion sometimes), my money is on Matt if both stay healthy that is. RB 13 and 14 is the same as a WR16 or 17(non-ppr) and that's mediocre which is avg at best.
Zyphros
Footballguy
How is his upside more? One could argue a 29 year old RB and another rookie is easier competition to beat out than a proven 1000 yd rusher for the past 3 years. I don't think AA in Detroit is easy competition by any means, but still there's just as much "feature back potential" in both of them. Jeremy Hill said screw Gio when he came to town, it could end up being kind of similar. I like AA but not as a feature runner and if ZZ proves something, just like Jones seems to have done then why not? They are 2 of the biggest preseason stars this year and both could force their way into more playing time if that translates into the regular season.
The only reason I want to bring all this up is because of the vast difference in what the opinions are in each thread. This one for Matt Jones has lots of hype and "wait 1 year" comments for him taking over the job soon. The ZZ thread is lots of "oh he's looked good, but..." But they were both relatively unknown until Matt Jones was taken so highly in the draft and ZZ was an UDFA, so why is Jones getting all the positive comments and ZZ is met with ultra caution?
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Yeah, I suppose you're correct that in both of their optimal scenarios, they have similar upside. In ZZ's optimal scenario however, essentially all of Bell/AA/Theo have to disappear. ZZ isn't even remotely guaranteed anything at this point. Jones on the other hand is already slated to see work so his path to fantasy relevance seems exponentially more likely.
Instead of "he has more upside", I should have said he has a better chance of reaching his ceiling. Also yes, the fact that ZZ is a UDFA is definitely playing a role in the group think.
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Outlaw Spades
Footballguy
So the Lions have back from AA to ZZ huh? 
I think Alf's great season was more a result of defenses having trouble with the read option and RGIII's great running skills he had back then. His numbers have become very mediocre the last two years. Plus, as far as the eye test goes, he just looks so slow. I agree that, as of now, he hasn't lost the job. Nor should he have. But I think the writing is on the wall that if he doesn't improve on last year's performance, they're probably not going to resign him after 2015. Not when Jones has looked so good.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
Let me make something clear. IMHO Alf is not the answer (unless he show something we haven't seen the last two years) and even though i believe Jones is better at this point and will take over, doesn't mean that he is the answer. I just belive he's better than Alf.
Nero
Footballguy
Yep. Drafted him 3.2 and just sold Jones, Golden Tate and 2016 2nd for Melvin Gordon.There have been MANY players who peaked in the pre-season.Poor kid. He peaked so soon. His highest ever value was after three preseason games. What a tragic tale.
And we're talking about perceived value here. Rookie players with a hype machine behind them always generate more buzz. If he was second year player, etc, it wouldn't be the same.
I guarantee you his value is more right this moment than it will be in week 5 of the season. Black dot that and let's chat later.
SeanTaylor21
Footballguy
Jones just went in the 5th round of a redraft in my work league. As a Skins fan I recognize I am as excited as anyone about Mr. Jones but to take him in the 5th round of a redraft league is plain crazy right now!
Edit to add: Immediately after Jones, it goes Golden Tate, Emmanuel Sanders, Markus Wheaton, Ameer Abdullah.
Edit to add: Immediately after Jones, it goes Golden Tate, Emmanuel Sanders, Markus Wheaton, Ameer Abdullah.
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I have a hard time describing Alfred Morris' past two years as mediocre when the Redskins went 3-13 in 2013, and 4-12 in 2014. If anything him getting over 1000 yards is more commendable.
LawFitz
Footballguy
That's one way to look at it. The opposite side might say Alf's mediocre compiler stats were part of why the records were so bad.
Not trying to hate on AM. I actually like the guy, but his biggest and possibly only advantage in the race to be the year-end Redskins starting tailback is his durability. The team is likely to be bad. He's in a contact year. They've already committed a substantial portion of the early season pie to the beastly pup nipping at him. The GM's chicken head is predicting big changes if the team sux at the break.
I want nothing to do with owning Al under these conditions, as I despise handcuffing two roster spots to bad teams. But I'll bite on some lotto ticket waiver action on the rook.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Gruden just talked about managing Jones's workload because he has a clear role in the offense. It's not surprising he didn't see action in the last preseason game.
I'd set the o/u on touches at 10 week 1 but it really depends on the game script.
Nero
Footballguy
I think his role won't be much different than Helu's role was last year. While it's significant, it's not worth the going rate IMO.
Going rate? Jones is going for a late round flyer. He was at ADP 132 Tuesday night when I drafted.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Almost every backfield is a RBBC to some extent. Helu was seeing an average of 40% of offensive snaps over the last two years which likely correlates with WAS being terrible. In games where WAS lost, it was common to see Helu finish with 4-6 receptions. I also think Helu is chronically underrated; he's more than just a 3rd-down/COP back.
I think the difference between Jones and Helu is really just timing. It's one think to try and unseat Morris after his outstanding rookie season but after several years of decreased effectiveness I don't think WAS is as averse to letting someone else eat into his early down work.
I disagree with your last statement, in most leagues Jones is still pretty much free.
Casting Couch
Footballguy
I have to agree here. He seems over drafted. I would be a seller right now at these inflated prices.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I think Jones is definitely better suited for grinding out yards but I always felt like Helu was incorrectly dubbed a COP back and nothing more. In my opinion, he has the same utility as someone like Lamar Miller.
