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Dynasty & Redraft: RB Matt Jones, Colts (3 Viewers)

Threw a lottery ticket at this kid and buzz has been good. Another good stat line. For those who watched how did he do?

 
Rotoworld:

Matt Jones rushed seven times for 57 yards in the Redskins' third preseason game.

He added one catch for 17 yards. Jones had much more success against the second-team defense than Alfred Morris had against the first, but he ran clearly behind Alf in this game and saw the field after Chris Thompson as well. Jones has the talent to put pressure on Morris, but he has not climbed him on the depth chart yet. Jones has 139 yards on 20 carries (6.95 YPC) this preseason.

Aug 29 - 10:14 PM
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I would love to see more from him. He looks the part and I don't see why he couldn't eat into Alf's production.

Tex

 
As the preseason has progressed I've changed my tune, Matt Jones will lead this backfield at some point during the season. Morris has been steadily declining as a runner since his rookie season; his efficiency and success rates per carry fell to league average and below last season. The game script will continue to not play to his skill set as WAS is predicted to win 6.5 games this year. The game script for Jones on the other hand, will be conducive to his success. Most importantly, he just passes the eye test. This guy is the lottery ticket RB to target this year.

 
This man has been beasting this preseason. With the dreads, body type and burst, he looks like a young Steven Jackson. Almo meanwhile, looks like he wearing ankle weights. Winds of change are blowing in DC.

 
Do people think the move to Kirk Cousins benefits him in anyway, or is it still really up to him to beat out Morris? Does Cousins have more an uptempo game with more dump-offs?

 
I'm a Jones owner in 2 of 3 leagues and an Alf owner in none. I think the smart money for 2015 is largely still with Morris barring injury, but I am definitely pleased with the early returns on investments in Matt Jones with an eye toward 2016 and beyond.

 
greyhorse said:
Do people think the move to Kirk Cousins benefits him in anyway, or is it still really up to him to beat out Morris? Does Cousins have more an uptempo game with more dump-offs?
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Saw Matthew Berry tweeted that Morris averages 4.5 less PPG with Cousins as the starter. Now, that could mean nothing for Jones, but still interesting. Think next year is Jones' year to shine IMO.

 
MattFancy said:
greyhorse said:
Do people think the move to Kirk Cousins benefits him in anyway, or is it still really up to him to beat out Morris? Does Cousins have more an uptempo game with more dump-offs?
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Saw Matthew Berry tweeted that Morris averages 4.5 less PPG with Cousins as the starter. Now, that could mean nothing for Jones, but still interesting. Think next year is Jones' year to shine IMO.
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with Morris being a FA after the year it would make sense to see what they have and if perhaps he's the long term answer.

 
This guy is one nice game from being a #1 waiver add. Of all the preseason standouts, he seems to have the best chance of taking the starting job. I'm hopping on the bandwagon now. He's still pretty under the radar. Only 12% owned in Yahoo leagues

 
Wonderllama said:
This guy is one nice game from being a #1 waiver add. Of all the preseason standouts, he seems to have the best chance of taking the starting job. I'm hopping on the bandwagon now. He's still pretty under the radar. Only 12% owned in Yahoo leagues
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He was drafted by the current regime, they are changing the running scheme and personnel on the team, has had rave reviews from the staff and press, nearly an insane 7 ypc in the preseason, good receiver and I think the 3rd down back and he's behind a declining 2 down back who's a free agent after the year.

Many things working in his favor and it won't happen immediately but if Morris can't work effectively in the new scheme while Jones continues running strong and the team struggles out of the gate it wouldn't shock me if he eventually gained a much larger role/ the starter.

Bottom line I won't have Morris on any team and will add Jones on every team as a late draft lottery ticket.

 
MattFancy said:
greyhorse said:
Do people think the move to Kirk Cousins benefits him in anyway, or is it still really up to him to beat out Morris? Does Cousins have more an uptempo game with more dump-offs?
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Saw Matthew Berry tweeted that Morris averages 4.5 less PPG with Cousins as the starter. Now, that could mean nothing for Jones, but still interesting. Think next year is Jones' year to shine IMO.
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I think that includes 2012 tough when the offense was full of read option and RG3 had defenses scared to death of him running. If you just look at last season or even last 2 seasons, I don't think it's such a big difference.
 
Banger said:
Wonderllama said:
This guy is one nice game from being a #1 waiver add. Of all the preseason standouts, he seems to have the best chance of taking the starting job. I'm hopping on the bandwagon now. He's still pretty under the radar. Only 12% owned in Yahoo leagues
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He was drafted by the current regime, they are changing the running scheme and personnel on the team, has had rave reviews from the staff and press, nearly an insane 7 ypc in the preseason, good receiver and I think the 3rd down back and he's behind a declining 2 down back who's a free agent after the year.Many things working in his favor and it won't happen immediately but if Morris can't work effectively in the new scheme while Jones continues running strong and the team struggles out of the gate it wouldn't shock me if he eventually gained a much larger role/ the starter.

Bottom line I won't have Morris on any team and will add Jones on every team as a late draft lottery ticket.
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I agree 100%. He's on the WW in my main league and will be one of the first adds I make if/when I get space.
 
Definitely worth rostering, and I own him in several places, but let's not go throwing dirt on Morris yet. He's a very good runner who doesn't miss games. There's a lot of value in that.

For dynasty, I love Jones. It doesn't seem likely that Washington would pay a lot for Morris with Jones in the fold. The counterpoint is that very few backs get much money on their FA deals anyway anymore, so perhaps they get Morris for something like Ingram or Mathews' deal and he does stick around.

 
We Tigers said:
Definitely worth rostering, and I own him in several places, but let's not go throwing dirt on Morris yet. He's a very good runner who doesn't miss games. There's a lot of value in that.

For dynasty, I love Jones. It doesn't seem likely that Washington would pay a lot for Morris with Jones in the fold. The counterpoint is that very few backs get much money on their FA deals anyway anymore, so perhaps they get Morris for something like Ingram or Mathews' deal and he does stick around.
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an unknown is how Morris will adapt from the ZBS where he thrived to power blocking scheme. So far Morris has looked less than pedestrian while Jones has looked ridiculous...then the staff keeps sprinkling in comments that they have to keep Jones healthy because they plan on him having a big role in the offense this year.

I get that it's the preseason but Morris has run for 18-56 (3.1) and 2-6 receiving vs. Jones 20-139 (7.0 ypc) and 2-28 receiving. Jones has been the much more explosive and electric runner and this team is likely going nowhere this year.

 
Sir Psycho said:
Nick Mensio ‏@NickMensio 6m6 minutes ago
Jay Gruden speaks very highly of Matt Jones: "Very integral part of O." Jones, Alf Morris likely to be RB "tandem": https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/football-insider/wp/2015/09/02/redskins-handling-rookie-rb-matt-jones-with-care/?postshare=8591441194620444 …
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and that's before the season has begun. Two good games where they are running side by side and if Jones severely outplays him things can change very quick. The cost can't be much cheaper and if it happens that he gets 3 carries a game for the 1st couple games you cut him for the waiver wire pickup of the week. Exactly the type of backfield situations I like to invest in.

 


  1. Evan Silva ‏@evansilva 3m3 minutes ago
    Alfred Morris' career YPC dips from 4.84 in RG3 starts to 3.59 in non-RG3 starts. Now may lose significant usage to Aug. monster Matt Jones.

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  2. Nick Mensio ‏@NickMensio 7m7 minutes ago
    Nick Mensio retweeted Adam Levitan

    Totally agree.

    Nick Mensio added,




    Adam Levitan @adamlevitan
    Matt Jones>Alf. (ducks) RT @NickMensio Jay Gruden speaks very highly of Matt Jones: "Very integral part of O." https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/football-insider/wp/2015/09/02/redskins-handling-rookie-rb-matt-jones-with-care/?postshare=8591441194620444 …





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Adam Levitan ‏@adamlevitan 8m8 minutes ago
Matt Jones>Alf. (ducks) RT @NickMensio Jay Gruden speaks very highly of Matt Jones: "Very integral part of O." https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/football-insider/wp/2015/09/02/redskins-handling-rookie-rb-matt-jones-with-care/?postshare=8591441194620444 …

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Brad Evans ‏@YahooNoise 11m11 minutes ago
According to Washington Post, Alf/Jones to establish "physical tandem." Best guess: Jones nets 10-12 tchs immediately. Great late-rd RB.

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I don't know much of him but have watched in the pre-season and he does look like one of the few Redskins players that has come to work with a lunch pail in his hand.

So they SHOULD reward him. With that being said, however, I don't see anything that makes me think they should cut back on Morris. Maybe this is a sign that, given the line and QB issues, they plan to run a lot.

 
Yeah, I think this team would love to run it 30 times a game and minimize what Cousins has to do. They'll probably be trailing far too often to do that, though.

 
Great news this morning for Matt Jones owners. As RG3 goes, so goes Alf. Alf burst onto the scene when RG3 was a dangerous threat to run. As that threat decreased and he became ineffective, Alf became more pedestrian.

You can't argue with the preseason stats. Somebody is going to do a play by play analysis of what defenses Alf ran against versus those of Jones, but 7 ypc regardless of who you are running against at the NFL level is impressive.

 
We Tigers said:
Yeah, I think this team would love to run it 30 times a game and minimize what Cousins has to do. They'll probably be trailing far too often to do that, though.
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And if that is the case, doesn't that favor Jones even more? I'm completely avoiding AlfM at his current ADP because I think in these situations Jones becomes the guy that gets the playing time. I don't mind seeing Jones get a couple of cheap late catches and a few cheap 10-20 yard carry on 3rd and 20+ to pad his fantasy stats, especially at where he is/isn't going currently.

 
greyhorse said:
tangfoot said:
greyhorse said:
You can't argue with the preseason stats.
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Who led the NFL in preseason rushing in 2014? 2013?
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I believe it was Lorenzo Taliaferro and Khiry Robinson respectively, with others also having big preseasons that never amounted to much. But did these guys have the coaches in the preseason saying they were going to be an integral part of the rushing attack?
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Preseason words are wind. Mind you, I like Jones. I just think that you're fooling yourself by basing your argument on "you can't argue with the preseason stats."

 
drizzt88 said:
We Tigers said:
Yeah, I think this team would love to run it 30 times a game and minimize what Cousins has to do. They'll probably be trailing far too often to do that, though.
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And if that is the case, doesn't that favor Jones even more? I'm completely avoiding AlfM at his current ADP because I think in these situations Jones becomes the guy that gets the playing time. I don't mind seeing Jones get a couple of cheap late catches and a few cheap 10-20 yard carry on 3rd and 20+ to pad his fantasy stats, especially at where he is/isn't going currently.
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True, but that was the situation last year and Helu still only managed, what, 90 total touches? Carries are the biggest opportunity for a backup running back. His passing down role does make Jones an okay bye week flier even if he doesn't take a considerable share of the rushing from Morris, though.
 
I owen Alf and the last two seasons he's frustrated me as other RBs out played him on his own team.

Jones has already outplayed him! The Shark move is to grab him NOW!

Tex

 
BigTex said:
I owen Alf and the last two seasons he's frustrated me as other RBs out played him on his own team.
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He's finished as RB14 and RB13 in those years. Please explain to me when he was outplayed by another RB on his own team, and who that was. I'll hang up and listen.

 
I grabbed Jones late in my draft last night. I had Morris last year and he looks like he's running through mud. Very slow. Considering it's a contract year for Alf, I doubt that he's the starter come late October.

 
tangfoot said:
BigTex said:
I owen Alf and the last two seasons he's frustrated me as other RBs out played him on his own team.
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He's finished as RB14 and RB13 in those years. Please explain to me when he was outplayed by another RB on his own team, and who that was. I'll hang up and listen.
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he went from 1600-13 in 2012, to 1275-7 in 2013 to 1074-8 last year. Looks like a trend to me and I'd rather leave a situation too early when the signals are there as opposed to a year too late. This situation just seems to have too many flashing lights for me to want to invest in Morris.

 
First year I actually have Alf on my team, because I feel the value pendulum has swung way too far. Matt Jones has shown up well so far in preseason games, but seems to me that people are a year early here. If I'm wrong, ah well. Like I said, he came extremely cheap.

 
Banger said:
tangfoot said:
BigTex said:
I owen Alf and the last two seasons he's frustrated me as other RBs out played him on his own team.
Click to expand...
He's finished as RB14 and RB13 in those years. Please explain to me when he was outplayed by another RB on his own team, and who that was. I'll hang up and listen.
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he went from 1600-13 in 2012, to 1275-7 in 2013 to 1074-8 last year. Looks like a trend to me and I'd rather leave a situation too early when the signals are there as opposed to a year too late. This situation just seems to have too many flashing lights for me to want to invest in Morris.
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He's declined in nearly every aspect as a runner since his rookie campaign. He's also very swingy, likely a product of playing on an awful team that plays catch-up a lot; he obviously isn't able to buoy his floor with receptions. He put up RB13 or better nimbers six times last year but also failed to crack RB33 eight times. He's an easy fade for me in PPR.

I own Matt Jones everywhere and am excited to see if he can carry his preseason momentum into the reg season. He's obviously no sure bet but at the very least this 3-down skill set gives him huge upside if Morris were ever to go down/he were ever to take over.

 
SameSongNDance said:
Banger said:
tangfoot said:
BigTex said:
I owen Alf and the last two seasons he's frustrated me as other RBs out played him on his own team.
Click to expand...
He's finished as RB14 and RB13 in those years. Please explain to me when he was outplayed by another RB on his own team, and who that was. I'll hang up and listen.
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he went from 1600-13 in 2012, to 1275-7 in 2013 to 1074-8 last year. Looks like a trend to me and I'd rather leave a situation too early when the signals are there as opposed to a year too late. This situation just seems to have too many flashing lights for me to want to invest in Morris.
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He's declined in nearly every aspect as a runner since his rookie campaign. He's also very swingy, likely a product of playing on an awful team that plays catch-up a lot; he obviously isn't able to buoy his floor with receptions. He put up RB13 or better nimbers six times last year but also failed to crack RB33 eight times. He's an easy fade for me in PPR.

I own Matt Jones everywhere and am excited to see if he can carry his preseason momentum into the reg season. He's obviously no sure bet but at the very least this 3-down skill set gives him huge upside if Morris were ever to go down/he were ever to take over.
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agree completely. I definitiely worry about his ability to stay healthy given his hyper physical style but its certainly worth the investment given the cost.

 
For where you could get him, I thought Jones was one of the biggest steals in rookie drafts this year (along with David Johnson & Ty Montgomery). All three of their ADPs have moved up significantly, but my rookie drafts are right after the NFL Draft. You could typically get Johnson mid-2nd, Jones late 2nd/early 3rd, & Montgomery in the 4th. DeAndre Smelter & Garrett Grayson are two more players I like as dynasty bargains & their ADP is about the same as it was earlier.

Jones was vastly underrated coming out. He's a late bloomer who does everything well & is a strong, natural runner with excellent burst, especially for his size.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
If I owned, I'd be selling right now. Value is sky high, but I don't think it will be sustained. Will be surprised if he's able to stay healthy in the NFL. I don't think he'll be able to protect himself enough to avoid injury.

 
For redraft leagues, is he the clear cut #2? Is he the third down back? Jones could win the job or inherit it if Morris gets hurt but if those things don't happen what is his role expected to be this year?

 
Steeler said:
For redraft leagues, is he the clear cut #2? Is he the third down back? Jones could win the job or inherit it if Morris gets hurt but if those things don't happen what is his role expected to be this year?
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He's going to take over Helu's role as the 3rd down back so a 55-35-10 snap % split is a safe bet from the onset. There's a very real possibility he eats into some early down work as the season progresses however.

 
Steeler said:
For redraft leagues, is he the clear cut #2? Is he the third down back? Jones could win the job or inherit it if Morris gets hurt but if those things don't happen what is his role expected to be this year?
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Clear #2 yes. 3rd down back? Sounds like it could be Chris Thompson.

 
Steeler said:
For redraft leagues, is he the clear cut #2? Is he the third down back? Jones could win the job or inherit it if Morris gets hurt but if those things don't happen what is his role expected to be this year?
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Yes, yes, and "growing".

 
wdcrob said:
If I owned, I'd be selling right now. Value is sky high, but I don't think it will be sustained. Will be surprised if he's able to stay healthy in the NFL. I don't think he'll be able to protect himself enough to avoid injury.
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I don't like to predict injuries but I agree otherwise. This feels like the topic yesterday when discussing TRICH and having that general awareness of when his highest value was (and should have sold).

Jones is probably at that point currently, given realistic expectations. Let's not sugarcoat things: The Redskins are going to struggle this year...a lot. Yeah, that means our boy Jones gets that wacky game of garbage yards and catches somewhere, but it also means he gets though 4-6 games where the Redskins struggle all live long day, he ends up with a 14/39 stat line and the Redskins never see the ball the last 7 minutes of a quarter.

When bad teams are bad consistently, they have a certain amount of quit in them to the degree of "let's just pack it up...again...and get out healthy" so it's not like every week is going to be Redskins in a two minute offense dumping off exclusively to Jones left and right.

The more realistic expectation is one of inconsistency and frustration, one where lots of players miss time because they are being banged up and/or protected (again, not trying to predict injuries but that IS how these things go).

If I own Jones and I've got people pipe dreaming he's going to be a "Alf Morris-like" sensation, I sell at that price.

 
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