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Breakouts, Sleepers, Busts (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Matt's Eagles
- Start date
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
I'm always a proponent of new OCs & HCs being bigger drivers of breakouts and sleepers than the players themselves. What is the list of new coordinators and head coaches and work from there. Miami, Cleveland and SF seem like obvious places to start.
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Stealthycat
Footballguy
Bust: M. Thomas
Saints rookie Thomas is a bust ??
Saints rookie Thomas is a bust ??
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Breakout: McDonald
Sleeper: Ryan Mathews
Busts: Forte, Broncos (Thomas, CJA, Sanders)
Sleeper: Ryan Mathews
Busts: Forte, Broncos (Thomas, CJA, Sanders)
Chaka
Footballguy
I would temper expectations on that one. I know Kelly's rep and how he got surprisingly solid QB/WR play with marginal talent in Phi but SF looks to have sub-sub-sub marginal talent at QB & WR.
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
QB
Breakout: RG3, maybe a re-breakout
Sleeper: Fitzpatrick, Top 7 in PPG last season
Bust: Roethlisberger, Last 2 seasons - Games w/ M. Bryant 25.6 PPG, w/o Bryant 19.62 PPG
RB
Breakout: Crowell, I can see him getting 250 carries this year.
Sleeper: R. Mathews, Always had the talent, now has the opportunity
Bust: D. Johnson, Talent may be there but he is being drafted based on unrealistic expectations for work load, TD rate and YPR
WR
Breakout: Allen, He is this years Hopkins, 120 receptions and 10 tds wouldn't surprise me.
Sleeper: John Brown, the early concussion has made people forget he is the most talented WR on the roster. By end of season he emerges as the true #1 on that offense.
Bust: Tate, Boldin is going to soak up the targets in the middle of the field and Jones is Stafford's new favorite target.
TE
Breakout: V. Green, This feels like the J. Thomas emergence all over again. I remember that preseason seeing JT lined up and being peppered with passes, now its Green and hardly any one were talking about either. By week 3 when Green is a top 5 TE people will be talking.
Sleeper: D. Allen, Fleener is gone and Chud loves him some TE action.
Bust: Olsen, the whole CAR offense is going to regress. 50 TDs is not sustainable. Benjamin is back, Ginn is fast, and Funches is emerging.
Breakout: RG3, maybe a re-breakout
Sleeper: Fitzpatrick, Top 7 in PPG last season
Bust: Roethlisberger, Last 2 seasons - Games w/ M. Bryant 25.6 PPG, w/o Bryant 19.62 PPG
RB
Breakout: Crowell, I can see him getting 250 carries this year.
Sleeper: R. Mathews, Always had the talent, now has the opportunity
Bust: D. Johnson, Talent may be there but he is being drafted based on unrealistic expectations for work load, TD rate and YPR
WR
Breakout: Allen, He is this years Hopkins, 120 receptions and 10 tds wouldn't surprise me.
Sleeper: John Brown, the early concussion has made people forget he is the most talented WR on the roster. By end of season he emerges as the true #1 on that offense.
Bust: Tate, Boldin is going to soak up the targets in the middle of the field and Jones is Stafford's new favorite target.
TE
Breakout: V. Green, This feels like the J. Thomas emergence all over again. I remember that preseason seeing JT lined up and being peppered with passes, now its Green and hardly any one were talking about either. By week 3 when Green is a top 5 TE people will be talking.
Sleeper: D. Allen, Fleener is gone and Chud loves him some TE action.
Bust: Olsen, the whole CAR offense is going to regress. 50 TDs is not sustainable. Benjamin is back, Ginn is fast, and Funches is emerging.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Late to the party, but I'll take a shot.
PPR scoring.
breakouts:
This one is a breakout & a sleeper:
Bruce Ellington - I'm not convinced Hyde is a consistent receiver, and Gabbart needs a guy underneath to drop it off to when pressure comes. And it's going to come behind that line. 3rd year WR, health is a big question mark, but talent seems to be there. 90/900/6 wouldn't shock me. With an up-tempo Kelly offense I expect more of a volume play, but with a late/last round pick he could pay dividends at WR3.
Sammy Watkins. I think he finishes top 5 at his position, and this is the last year he'll be a 3rd round pick - if he stays healthy.
Langford - as a 5th round ADP I really like his potential. I'm afraid he'll jump to late 3rd early 4th by the time I draft my last league on the 5th. Sigh.
Busts; I don't like predicting busts, but Forte scares me.
As does Foster. also for health reasons
Red flags all over Rawls - great preseason from Michael, injured and unproven - this could easily shape up to a RBBC or worse.
Sleepers:
I can't believe I'm about to say this, but RGIII had the look of a top 12 QB - yes, it's preseason, but man did he look good. And good weapons - and josh Gordon coming back week 4. I'm probably not the 1st to call it but as a 3rd QB in 2 QB leagues, and as a sleepy QB2 in 1 QB leagues
Cooks in GB looks like he's in a really good situation. AAron uses TEs a lot, especially in the red zone. If I were hurting at TE I'd probably take a flier on Cooks - athleticism has never been the question.
PPR scoring.
breakouts:
This one is a breakout & a sleeper:
Bruce Ellington - I'm not convinced Hyde is a consistent receiver, and Gabbart needs a guy underneath to drop it off to when pressure comes. And it's going to come behind that line. 3rd year WR, health is a big question mark, but talent seems to be there. 90/900/6 wouldn't shock me. With an up-tempo Kelly offense I expect more of a volume play, but with a late/last round pick he could pay dividends at WR3.
Sammy Watkins. I think he finishes top 5 at his position, and this is the last year he'll be a 3rd round pick - if he stays healthy.
Langford - as a 5th round ADP I really like his potential. I'm afraid he'll jump to late 3rd early 4th by the time I draft my last league on the 5th. Sigh.
Busts; I don't like predicting busts, but Forte scares me.
As does Foster. also for health reasons
Red flags all over Rawls - great preseason from Michael, injured and unproven - this could easily shape up to a RBBC or worse.
Sleepers:
I can't believe I'm about to say this, but RGIII had the look of a top 12 QB - yes, it's preseason, but man did he look good. And good weapons - and josh Gordon coming back week 4. I'm probably not the 1st to call it but as a 3rd QB in 2 QB leagues, and as a sleepy QB2 in 1 QB leagues
Cooks in GB looks like he's in a really good situation. AAron uses TEs a lot, especially in the red zone. If I were hurting at TE I'd probably take a flier on Cooks - athleticism has never been the question.
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pantherclub
Footballguy
I am totally insane for thinking TJ Yeldon is going to break out in a major way? Dude has size, can catch the ball and is in a good offense.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
QB
Breakout: Jameis Winston
Sleeper: Sam Bradford
Bust: Brock Osweiler
RB
Breakout: Duke Johnson.
Sleeper: James White
Bust: Isaiah Crowell
WR
Breakout: Tyler Lockett
Sleeper: Sterling Shepard
Bust: Josh Gordon
TE
Breakout: Eric Ebron
Sleeper: Jesse James
Bust: Ladarius Green
Breakout: Jameis Winston
Sleeper: Sam Bradford
Bust: Brock Osweiler
RB
Breakout: Duke Johnson.
Sleeper: James White
Bust: Isaiah Crowell
WR
Breakout: Tyler Lockett
Sleeper: Sterling Shepard
Bust: Josh Gordon
TE
Breakout: Eric Ebron
Sleeper: Jesse James
Bust: Ladarius Green
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
Can you explain your logic on the Brown's RB's. I have them reversed. I think the offense will be a power running game with Crowell to set up the long ball. The addition of RG3 and the option for him to run should help Crowell as well.
I see Johnson as more of a 3rd down back and not getting many carries.
Just my take, interested in what you think.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Splitting carries with Chris Ivory (who may actually be better) would seem to put a damper on that. It's not "totally insane" though.
Boston
Footballguy
My guess is he thinks they will be playing from behind a lot so if that's the case it plays more into Duke's strengths than Crowell's...
Dizzy
Footballguy
QB
Breakout: Jameis Winston (tough to pick a breakout here... QB's are so deep).
Sleeper: Dak Prescott (fantasy gold if Romo goes down).
Bust: Blake Bortles (won't see as much garbage time in 2016).
RB
Breakout: Lamar Miller (leaping to RB01)
Sleeper: Tevin Coleman (looking to split carries... Freeman 3.1 YPC 2nd half of 2015).
Bust: Thomas Rawls (probably drafted as a RB1 - C-Mike on the field and looking real good)
WR
Breakout: Michael Floyd (lot of good candidates here - Marvin Jones, Donte Moncrief - but I think Floyd will be the preferred WR option on a high scoring offense).
Sleeper: Tyler Lockett (maybe not a deep sleeper, but will exceed draft position expectations. Kenny Stills honorable mention).
Bust: TIE... Kelvin Benjamin/Jordy Nelson (back from major injury, one is reportedly a bit out of shape and still unpolished, the other is 31-yrs old... one will disappoint, the other will claim the title of BUST).
TE
Breakout: Martellus Bennett (real strong candidate for 10+ TDs in 2016)
Sleeper: Jesse James (could be starting in a TE-friendly offense)
Bust: Coby Fleener (just not sold that he is all that good)
Breakout: Jameis Winston (tough to pick a breakout here... QB's are so deep).
Sleeper: Dak Prescott (fantasy gold if Romo goes down).
Bust: Blake Bortles (won't see as much garbage time in 2016).
RB
Breakout: Lamar Miller (leaping to RB01)
Sleeper: Tevin Coleman (looking to split carries... Freeman 3.1 YPC 2nd half of 2015).
Bust: Thomas Rawls (probably drafted as a RB1 - C-Mike on the field and looking real good)
WR
Breakout: Michael Floyd (lot of good candidates here - Marvin Jones, Donte Moncrief - but I think Floyd will be the preferred WR option on a high scoring offense).
Sleeper: Tyler Lockett (maybe not a deep sleeper, but will exceed draft position expectations. Kenny Stills honorable mention).
Bust: TIE... Kelvin Benjamin/Jordy Nelson (back from major injury, one is reportedly a bit out of shape and still unpolished, the other is 31-yrs old... one will disappoint, the other will claim the title of BUST).
TE
Breakout: Martellus Bennett (real strong candidate for 10+ TDs in 2016)
Sleeper: Jesse James (could be starting in a TE-friendly offense)
Bust: Coby Fleener (just not sold that he is all that good)
pantherclub
Footballguy
If you would have watched the past 2 preseason games you would be moving KB into the breakout category. He looks like an animal out there. He made two incredible catches and some good blocks last game. I think the "out of shape" mantra is a bit overstated.
thehornet
Footballguy
Marshall is about as durable as they come and nuts about conditioning. I think he's missed about 5 games in 10 years.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
With what they paid Ivory I expect a RBBC for certain, which may curtail breakout potential.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Duke Johnson can be a lot more than a 3rd down back and the coach said as much during training camp. I also get the feeling the Browns coaches aren't all that pleased with Crowell and he's on a short leash. I think Duke Johnson a better RB than Crowell. If he starts to eat into Crowell's carries I believe he will take advantage of it.abbottjamesr said:
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pantherclub
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
From what I've seen of Crowell and heard from the coaches, they're excited about him and what he brings to the offense.
It was very dicey for a while when Crowell had his little social media dust-up, but his sincere apologies seems to have gotten him out of the doghouse, and CLE appears to want him to be the bruiser, relegating Duke to receiving/COP. Maybe the comments you heard were from when Crowell was in hot water.
Historically, having a mobile QB like RGIII (provided he remains the starter & stays healthy) can be a serious disadvantage for a receiving back like Johnson, which, for now, is what he is. RGIII is more likely to take off and run than check down to a RB, and Crowell is a better short yardage back.
So whether Duke is capable of being more than a 3rd down back or not doesn't seem to be relevant in light of the fact that he probably is one. So his touches will likely be limited by his QB, and he won't get the tough inside carries because Crowell is better at it and better built for it - and the GL carries are also likely to go to Crowell or RGIII, further diminishing his value.
So if anything I see Duke Johnson as one of the more overrated RBs right now, and think he's being over drafted in the 6th round, while Crowell goes 2-3 rounds later.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Curious - if Johnson is being drafted in the 6th (often 5th), and Crowell is taken in the 8th-9th, then how is Crowell a bust if he doesn't perform as well as Johnson?
Wouldn't that be the expectation based on ADP?
If anything, I'd say Johnson is more likely to be a bust if he fails to out-score Crowell.
I stand by my predictions. By end of the year, I think Duke will have more points than Crowell in a PPR setting. I don't see Crowell as being the legit starter for the full year or half a year. He might not be a colossal bust based off his ADP, but he will, in my opinion, bust on a team that had him as the starter because they will look Duke Johnsons way more and more as the season progresses. Crowell will lose his starter job.
So I don't agree with your skill breakdown or judgement on how he's out of the doghouse. I see Johnson being used in multiple ways as a receiver and rusher with his talent outshining Crowell at some point during this year.
Also... I got Duke in the 7th last night... He routinely goes in the 7th/8th.
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Buttonhook
Footballguy
NFL Network was recently mentioning that RGIII is still having issues with accurately throwing the check down/screen passes in practice. If that's true, it's another reason to temper expectations for Duke.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I'm talking ADP, not where you got him in 1 draft.
And again: if Duke is going 2-3 rounds higher than Crowell, isn't the obvious expectation that he'll score more?
Still missing how Crowell will be a bust if Duke Johnson scores more.
I thought you sounded like you drafted Duke, you didn't have to tell me.
I own shares of neither right now.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
In the 24 real drafts that I have been in, Duke has been in the 7th/8th range. I was talking about season totals at the end of the year, not purely basing it off of ADP. If you missed what I said, sorry?
Agreed to disagree though.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
And where has Crowell gone in those 24 real drafts? 2-3 rounds later than Duke, right?
So I just don't see your logic.
You might as well post, "Duke is a stud, and Crowell is a bust. Duke
"lol
Actually, they're routinely butted up against eachother in drafts. ADP wasn't what I was talking about when I posted my Breakout/Sleepers/Busts. So I don't see your logic applied to my predictions either, since that wasn't the basis. Flawed logic.And where has Crowell gone in those 24 real drafts? 2-3 rounds later than Duke, right?
So I just don't see your logic.
You might as well post, "Duke is a stud, and Crowell is a bust. Duke
lol
YOU could post "Duke is a stud, and Crowell is a bust. Duke" ... but that wasn't what I said. Ignorance is bliss though. Agreed to disagree.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Actually no - my logic is clear. I'll explain it again for you:
IF one player is drafted ahead of another (e.g. going by ADP from 1000s of leagues, not just your alleged 24), THEN Duke Johnson is going 2-3 rounds earlier than Crowell.
And since in the vast majority of leagues (including one I drafted in last Saturday) Duke Johnson goes 2-3 rounds earlier than Crowell, then Duke Johnson MUST out-score Crowell or be labelled a "bust", whereas IF Crowell has even identical value to Duke Johnson, then one could argue that Crowell was a "value pick".
Since we're not all in your 24 leagues, we go by ADP, which is what 99.99% of FFB-ers use to determine draft value.
And if you're talking about busts/sleepers, then you absolutely are talking about value. Hopefully we're seeing apples to apples now, but you can go ahead and agree to disagree if you'd like.
TLDRActually no - my logic is clear. I'll explain it again for you:
IF one player is drafted ahead of another (e.g. going by ADP from 1000s of leagues, not just your alleged 24), THEN Duke Johnson is going 2-3 rounds earlier than Crowell.
And since in the vast majority of leagues (including one I drafted in last Saturday) Duke Johnson goes 2-3 rounds earlier than Crowell, then Duke Johnson MUST out-score Crowell or be labelled a "bust", whereas IF Crowell has even identical value to Duke Johnson, then one could argue that Crowell was a "value pick".
Since we're not all in your 24 leagues, we go by ADP, which is what 99.99% of FFB-ers use to determine draft value.
And if you're talking about busts/sleepers, then you absolutely are talking about value. Hopefully we're seeing apples to apples now, but you can go ahead and agree to disagree if you'd like.
You can reword and re-say it however you like. Agreed to disagree.
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
Breakout: TJ Yeldon. Chris Ivory has played 16 games exactly once in six seasons. And even if he stays healthy, I still think Yeldon breaks out. I think it's a 1a-1b situation.
Heres an interesting stat...Yeldon had 23 more ppr points than David "the Messiah" Johnson (despite losing time for a pulled groin) before having his season cut short by a sprained knee.
Yeldon is the goods. Ivory is an aging journeyman.
Favorite sleeper is Ellington. No not Andre. Bruce Ellington. It's going to be check down city in San Fran. He's been getting a lot of press too.
Bust:. The Messiah, of course. People are talking about taking him number one overall despite the health of André Ellington and Chris Johnson. This isn't a Todd Gurley workhorse situation. And he fumbled the ball about once every 40 touches last year. Yikes. That equates out to about 7 fumbles. That's quite a few.
Heres an interesting stat...Yeldon had 23 more ppr points than David "the Messiah" Johnson (despite losing time for a pulled groin) before having his season cut short by a sprained knee.
Yeldon is the goods. Ivory is an aging journeyman.
Favorite sleeper is Ellington. No not Andre. Bruce Ellington. It's going to be check down city in San Fran. He's been getting a lot of press too.
Bust:. The Messiah, of course. People are talking about taking him number one overall despite the health of André Ellington and Chris Johnson. This isn't a Todd Gurley workhorse situation. And he fumbled the ball about once every 40 touches last year. Yikes. That equates out to about 7 fumbles. That's quite a few.
Not really. Again, ignorance is bliss... whatever helps you sleep at night.Hot Sauce Guy said:
I just don't want to get in a pointless back and forth with someone who cannot comprehend another viewpoint. It's fighting a losing battle... and then adding in pompous replies like "You can't or won't defend your statement/prediction"... and being demeaning... not the telling mark of high intellect. So I question the "point", continuing this conversation with you and realize there is none.
So I take the higher route, agreeing to disagree, because we will never see eye-to-eye, and I'm not sure I want to.
But thanks for playing.
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QB
Breakout: Prescott
Sleeper: RG3
Bust: Tannehill
RB
Breakout: Zeke
Sleeper: Gore
Bust: Gurley
WR
Breakout: Moncrief
Sleeper: Perriman
Bust: Parker
TE
Breakout: Bennett
Sleeper: Allen
Bust: Reed
I didn't go into this with any plan in mind, but it looks like I'm (sub)consciously expecting Indianapolis to be an offensive powerhouse again.
Breakout: Prescott
Sleeper: RG3
Bust: Tannehill
RB
Breakout: Zeke
Sleeper: Gore
Bust: Gurley
WR
Breakout: Moncrief
Sleeper: Perriman
Bust: Parker
TE
Breakout: Bennett
Sleeper: Allen
Bust: Reed
I didn't go into this with any plan in mind, but it looks like I'm (sub)consciously expecting Indianapolis to be an offensive powerhouse again.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I thought personal attacks were against forum rules.
2nd time you've called me "ignorant" - I'd appreciate it if you would refrain from insulting me.
I've attempted to engage politely. Now I'll just put you on ignore. Enjoy your Duke Johnson love affair.
You haven't attempted to engage politely... Nor have I said anything terrible. "Ignorance is bliss" is a phrase, a good phrase to describe this. If you get offended by that, you get offended by a lot. Please do put me on ignore, THANK YOU. (I have already added you).
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Done. Apologies for the distraction. I was genuinely interested in discussing the values of those two players. It became quickly apparent the other person was not.
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