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Breakouts, Sleepers, Busts (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Matt's Eagles
- Start date
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Breakouts: QB-Andy Dalton, RB-Dion Lewis, WR-Jordan Matthews, TE-Coby Fleener
Sleepers: QB-Matthew Stafford, RB-Mark Ingram, WR-Mike Wallace, TE-Dwayne Allen
Busts: QB-Jameis Winston, RB-Doug Martin, WR-Dez Bryant, TE-Travis Kelce
Sleepers: QB-Matthew Stafford, RB-Mark Ingram, WR-Mike Wallace, TE-Dwayne Allen
Busts: QB-Jameis Winston, RB-Doug Martin, WR-Dez Bryant, TE-Travis Kelce
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
I wasn't using ADP. I didn't realize how valued Ingram is.
EBF
Footballguy
I want to see what Kevin White and DeAndre Smelter can do. Two players I liked a lot coming out of college last season who didn't play for medical reasons. I don't have any bold predictions for their 2016 stats, but I'm hoping to see some flashes. I'd be likely to pick them in a dynasty startup if I were doing any this year.
elguapo07
Footballguy
From a quick scan of this thread, Mariota, Tannehill and Winston all are getting a few breakout votes. They have similar ADPs as QB2 and out of the 3 I like Mariota much better.
How high are you on Winston? I'm sure you see him with QB1 upside, what type of ceiling do you have for him? I'm a bit short on him and I think he'll be on many preseason breakout lists and therefore will be overvalued. I've been wrong plenty but I want to see more of him.
And he did that in only 12 games! Generally speaking, there's some pretty liberal use of the terms "breakout" and "bust" in here. Guys being drafted as late backups are being listed as busts and guys who already broke out are being listed as breakouts.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Yeah some of these lists are a bit off. Dalton is listed as a "breakout" and he's already had a QB3 and QB5 finish. I think he's already broke out.
steelers1080
Footballguy
I think if it's based on 2016 rankings, as opposed to previous years' production, then players like Dalton make more sense. I saw him ranked 16th, so if you think he'll repeat a top 5 QB year next year with only 1 WR, then he'll be a sleeper (it's a bit late for a breakout though).
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Yeah I guess it depends on how you define "breakout" to me that's a guy that works his way into the top players who hasn't been there before. The whole "sleeper" concept really doesn't exist anymore with all the info out now but I think you can apply that term to players (like Dalton) that you talk about above - outperforming ADP.
Matt's Eagles
Footballguy
Bump.. Anyone else want to take a shot at some predictions
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I agree and am one of those late round QB guys. However this year, it is aggressively bad looking to take an early QB.
Milkman
Footballguy
RB couldn't be more wrong. Ingram got volume already and didn't breakout. Jones has shown nothing. Bell is proven.
Ditka Butkus
Footballguy
Ingram didn't finish the season due to injury and was well on his way (breakout)....Jones is going to be the new starter(sleeper) and Bell isn't going to play a full season (bust)
steelers1080
Footballguy
It should honestly be Overperform/Underperform because that's what people are implying. Lots of players are already on someone's radar. Good Example, last year Rawls was a UDFA and he still had buzz about him before the season started. There's not really a true sleeper pick anymore, but there are lesser known players who could vastly overperform.
Matt's Eagles
Footballguy
Bump
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Qb
Breakout - Wilson
Sleeper - Tannehill
Bust - Bortles
Rb
Breakout - Hyde
Sleeper - Duke
Bust - Peterson
Wr
Breakout - Parker
Sleeper - Austin
Bust - Dez
Te
Breakout - Allen
Sleeper - Walford
Bust - Eifert
Changed mine up a little
Run It Up
Footballguy
Qb:
Breakout- Winston
Sleeper- Stafford
Bust- Flacco
Rb:
Breakout- Dion Lewis
Sleeper- Danny Woodhead
Bust- Ryan Matthews
Wr:
Breakout- Davente Parker
Sleeper- Marvin Jones
Bust- Doug Baldwin
Te:
Breakout- Austin Hooper
Sleeper- I feel like Kelce is being under drafted
Bust- Reed
Breakout- Winston
Sleeper- Stafford
Bust- Flacco
Rb:
Breakout- Dion Lewis
Sleeper- Danny Woodhead
Bust- Ryan Matthews
Wr:
Breakout- Davente Parker
Sleeper- Marvin Jones
Bust- Doug Baldwin
Te:
Breakout- Austin Hooper
Sleeper- I feel like Kelce is being under drafted
Bust- Reed
Last edited by a moderator:
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
QB
Breakout: Russell Wilson
Sleeper: Matt Ryan
Bust: Blake Bortles
Reasoning: Wilson as the breakout has more to do with the early devaluing of QB's in early mocks. When the Seahawks became his mid last year, he became epic. He'll deliver 1st round value. Ryan is ignored, but year 2 in new regime should yield better results and he can cut down the TO's. Not sold on Bortles ability to replicate his sophomore year now that the Jags are showing up on the NFL radar right off the bat.
RB
Breakout: Jay Ajayi
Sleeper: Ryan Mathews
Bust: Dion Lewis
Reasoning: Ajayi was graded out as a 2nd round level talent last year before falling in the draft due to long term concerns on his knee. But he showed well his rookie year and as of now, has a clear path to large snap counts. Mathews is the RB left in PHI and while staying healthy is a concern, he should be heavily utilized. Dion Lewis has always had trouble staying healthy. He was electric last year, but coming off an ACL, does he return to form? At a 4th round value...too rich.
WR
Breakout: Marcus Wheaton
Sleeper: Phillip Dorsett
Bust: DGB
Reasoning: While not possessing the natural talents of the year long suspended MBryant, Wheaton has gradually improved each year. Antonio Brown can't do it all and this is a new era for the Steelers with Heath Miller calling it quits. I feel like Luck comes back with an F.U type year while establishing an under the radar weapon. When I hear the term 'exotic smashmouth'...I think I'll stay away from this passing game weapons and DGB has August Kool-Aid written all over him.
TE
Breakout: Coby Fleener
Sleeper: Jared Cook
Bust: Greg Olsen
Reasoning: Just think that Brees will figure out a way to get Fleener big time production. Cook will have a QB for the first time in his career. Olsen will have to contend with Benjamin coming back, Devin Funchess looking to emerge and CAR subject to SB hangover type issues. Plus, Olsen moving up the age ladder.
Breakout: Russell Wilson
Sleeper: Matt Ryan
Bust: Blake Bortles
Reasoning: Wilson as the breakout has more to do with the early devaluing of QB's in early mocks. When the Seahawks became his mid last year, he became epic. He'll deliver 1st round value. Ryan is ignored, but year 2 in new regime should yield better results and he can cut down the TO's. Not sold on Bortles ability to replicate his sophomore year now that the Jags are showing up on the NFL radar right off the bat.
RB
Breakout: Jay Ajayi
Sleeper: Ryan Mathews
Bust: Dion Lewis
Reasoning: Ajayi was graded out as a 2nd round level talent last year before falling in the draft due to long term concerns on his knee. But he showed well his rookie year and as of now, has a clear path to large snap counts. Mathews is the RB left in PHI and while staying healthy is a concern, he should be heavily utilized. Dion Lewis has always had trouble staying healthy. He was electric last year, but coming off an ACL, does he return to form? At a 4th round value...too rich.
WR
Breakout: Marcus Wheaton
Sleeper: Phillip Dorsett
Bust: DGB
Reasoning: While not possessing the natural talents of the year long suspended MBryant, Wheaton has gradually improved each year. Antonio Brown can't do it all and this is a new era for the Steelers with Heath Miller calling it quits. I feel like Luck comes back with an F.U type year while establishing an under the radar weapon. When I hear the term 'exotic smashmouth'...I think I'll stay away from this passing game weapons and DGB has August Kool-Aid written all over him.
TE
Breakout: Coby Fleener
Sleeper: Jared Cook
Bust: Greg Olsen
Reasoning: Just think that Brees will figure out a way to get Fleener big time production. Cook will have a QB for the first time in his career. Olsen will have to contend with Benjamin coming back, Devin Funchess looking to emerge and CAR subject to SB hangover type issues. Plus, Olsen moving up the age ladder.
Mister CIA
Footballguy
QB
Breakout: Derek Carr - #13 QB last year. His maturation is represented by a straight line, trending upward. Beefed up O-Line, and if Walford makes the next step forward, the collective value of his targets rank in the top 10, possibly top 5.
Sleeper: Eli Manning - 65 TDs in the past two years. Eli will soon be flirting with HoF consideration based upon his regular season stats alone.
Bust: Andy Dalton - threw 66 INTs his first four seasons; threw 7 last year, and lost his offensive coordinator and two WRs (and Eifort is ailing). The selection of Tyler Boyd notwithstanding, there are a lot of arrows pointing the wrong direction in Cincinnati this year.
RB
Breakout: David Johnson - Far be it for me to give Bruce Arians advice, but how does he not run 24 year-old David Johnson into the ground? Is there a downside to giving this guy 350 touches?
Sleeper: Darren McFadden. I've never owned McFadden in any league, but if I'm running the Cowboys I go against conventional wisdom and run McFadden into the ground, and bring EE in for batting practice.
Bust: Frank Gore - he's 33 years old. Nufced.
WR
Breakout: Amari Cooper - #27 in PPG last year (#19 season total), I expect him to emerge from the 2016 season as top 2 dynasty WR.
Sleeper: Michael Thomas - Round peg in a round hole.
Bust: Allen Hurns - Flukey vibe; I felt the same way about Anquan Boldin from the get-go, so what do I know?
TE
Breakout: Dwayne Allen - Very high floor, and a surprisingly high ceiling in my estimation. While I tend to favor one-dimensional receiving TEs in FF, I think the Colts did a little addition by subtraction when they cut bait on Fleener (who should thrive in NO) and kept the multi-faceted Allen. Allen = two parts Witten, one part Heath Miller.
Sleeper: Clive Walford - Could easily swap Walford and Allen as breakout and sleeper. The script is already written, the Raiders want to throw the ball to Walford, a lot. Will they? I think so.
Bust: Kyle Rudolph - I like Kyle Rudolph, but I don't think he will ever meet my hope and expectations, FF-wise. I play in a TE-premium league where I am not averse to rostering 5 TEs, so he's not necessarily going anywhere, but his ### will smell like pine.
Breakout: Derek Carr - #13 QB last year. His maturation is represented by a straight line, trending upward. Beefed up O-Line, and if Walford makes the next step forward, the collective value of his targets rank in the top 10, possibly top 5.
Sleeper: Eli Manning - 65 TDs in the past two years. Eli will soon be flirting with HoF consideration based upon his regular season stats alone.
Bust: Andy Dalton - threw 66 INTs his first four seasons; threw 7 last year, and lost his offensive coordinator and two WRs (and Eifort is ailing). The selection of Tyler Boyd notwithstanding, there are a lot of arrows pointing the wrong direction in Cincinnati this year.
RB
Breakout: David Johnson - Far be it for me to give Bruce Arians advice, but how does he not run 24 year-old David Johnson into the ground? Is there a downside to giving this guy 350 touches?
Sleeper: Darren McFadden. I've never owned McFadden in any league, but if I'm running the Cowboys I go against conventional wisdom and run McFadden into the ground, and bring EE in for batting practice.
Bust: Frank Gore - he's 33 years old. Nufced.
WR
Breakout: Amari Cooper - #27 in PPG last year (#19 season total), I expect him to emerge from the 2016 season as top 2 dynasty WR.
Sleeper: Michael Thomas - Round peg in a round hole.
Bust: Allen Hurns - Flukey vibe; I felt the same way about Anquan Boldin from the get-go, so what do I know?
TE
Breakout: Dwayne Allen - Very high floor, and a surprisingly high ceiling in my estimation. While I tend to favor one-dimensional receiving TEs in FF, I think the Colts did a little addition by subtraction when they cut bait on Fleener (who should thrive in NO) and kept the multi-faceted Allen. Allen = two parts Witten, one part Heath Miller.
Sleeper: Clive Walford - Could easily swap Walford and Allen as breakout and sleeper. The script is already written, the Raiders want to throw the ball to Walford, a lot. Will they? I think so.
Bust: Kyle Rudolph - I like Kyle Rudolph, but I don't think he will ever meet my hope and expectations, FF-wise. I play in a TE-premium league where I am not averse to rostering 5 TEs, so he's not necessarily going anywhere, but his ### will smell like pine.
slackjawedyokel
Footballguy
Qb:
Breakout: Winston. Was good last year but could be refined this year.
Sleeper: Goff since there is such a cloud of pessimism on the LA offense. Could be serviceable in year 1. Eli would be my other choice.
Bust: Tannehill or Bottles.
RB:
Breakout: Zeke. He qualifies to breakout year 1.
Sleeper: Giovanni. Hill could be my bust as well.
Bust: Langford. Carey and rookie interference makes him underperform expectations.
WR:
Breakout: Wheaton. I think he's got an opportunity to pull a Sanders and blow up next to Brown with the next stop in mind.
Sleeper: Ty Montgomery. Completely forgotten after the injury but could be a #3 anytime this season.
Bust: Hurns. I like Hurns but I think there was some fluky production that goes to Julius and the RBs along with general decline in the offense.
TE:
Breakout: Cameron. This is a weird one and a stretch because I feel like we've been waiting for a breakout for a long time. With Rishard gone and finally healthy, he could be in line for a rebound and top 8 performance.
Sleeper: Blake Bell. I can see him being Ertz lite with Chip.
Bust: Jared Cook. Expectation will be so high with Rodgers but he's never proven that he can do it. A single game here or there in his whole career.
Breakout: Winston. Was good last year but could be refined this year.
Sleeper: Goff since there is such a cloud of pessimism on the LA offense. Could be serviceable in year 1. Eli would be my other choice.
Bust: Tannehill or Bottles.
RB:
Breakout: Zeke. He qualifies to breakout year 1.
Sleeper: Giovanni. Hill could be my bust as well.
Bust: Langford. Carey and rookie interference makes him underperform expectations.
WR:
Breakout: Wheaton. I think he's got an opportunity to pull a Sanders and blow up next to Brown with the next stop in mind.
Sleeper: Ty Montgomery. Completely forgotten after the injury but could be a #3 anytime this season.
Bust: Hurns. I like Hurns but I think there was some fluky production that goes to Julius and the RBs along with general decline in the offense.
TE:
Breakout: Cameron. This is a weird one and a stretch because I feel like we've been waiting for a breakout for a long time. With Rishard gone and finally healthy, he could be in line for a rebound and top 8 performance.
Sleeper: Blake Bell. I can see him being Ertz lite with Chip.
Bust: Jared Cook. Expectation will be so high with Rodgers but he's never proven that he can do it. A single game here or there in his whole career.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
QB
Breakout - Jameis Winston - he's ready to take his permanent seat at the big boys table
Sleeper - Matthew Stafford - his game took off once Billy Bob Cooter took the reigns as OC and there's still a lot of weapons in this passing game despite the loss of Calvin
Bust - Tom Brady - father time is undefeated (plus he'll sit 4 games)
RB
Breakout - Carlos Hyde - he's flashed talent and will be in a great system. Health will be key.
Sleeper - Steven Ridley - a better version of Joique Bell in what should be a high scoring offense
Bust - Matt Forte - Bilal Powell and Khiry Robinson will be worked in more than people think
WR
Breakout - Dorial Green-Beckham - the talent is there and he should realistically dominate targets over the other lackluster options in this offense
Sleeper - Leonte Caroo - most under-rated WR in this rookie class
Bust - Jarvis Landry - high volume dependent WR whose volume should decline
TE
Breakout - Coby Fleener - look what Ben Watson did in this offense and Fleener is about to hit his stride
Sleeper - Clive Walford - should be a red zone target for Carr
Bust - Jason Witten - name recognition will get him drafted but he's a shell of himself
Breakout - Jameis Winston - he's ready to take his permanent seat at the big boys table
Sleeper - Matthew Stafford - his game took off once Billy Bob Cooter took the reigns as OC and there's still a lot of weapons in this passing game despite the loss of Calvin
Bust - Tom Brady - father time is undefeated (plus he'll sit 4 games)
RB
Breakout - Carlos Hyde - he's flashed talent and will be in a great system. Health will be key.
Sleeper - Steven Ridley - a better version of Joique Bell in what should be a high scoring offense
Bust - Matt Forte - Bilal Powell and Khiry Robinson will be worked in more than people think
WR
Breakout - Dorial Green-Beckham - the talent is there and he should realistically dominate targets over the other lackluster options in this offense
Sleeper - Leonte Caroo - most under-rated WR in this rookie class
Bust - Jarvis Landry - high volume dependent WR whose volume should decline
TE
Breakout - Coby Fleener - look what Ben Watson did in this offense and Fleener is about to hit his stride
Sleeper - Clive Walford - should be a red zone target for Carr
Bust - Jason Witten - name recognition will get him drafted but he's a shell of himself
nittanylion
Footballguy
Forgive the partial hijack,but both here in the Thread, and elsewhere, I'm seeing plenty of opinion that AP is going to suffer a down year, and I'm not necessarily seeing it...
Adrian Peterson may bust in 2017, but predicting a bust in 2016, I'm very interested in hearing more, especially if it has to do with anything besides 'age bias'. I was invested heavily in Peterson both last year (good), and 2014 (ugh), and watched most of his 2015 snaps, and in my opinion, Peterson's struggles in 2015 had to do with either peripherals, or circumstances beyond his control, and still: 327/1485/11 , 30(36)/222/0 ... when one takes into consideration the injuries to, and resulting struggles of, the O-Line, it's truly remarkable what stats he was able to generate...but then when one considers that he had a year off in 2014, and, well Norv, maybe it's not so surprising after all...and all signs point to another monster Season upcoming: that same O-Line, already considered to be one of the most dominant run-blocking lines in the NFL, is fully healthy, and added Alex Boone and Andre Smith. I'm not a Bridgewater guy, but that O-Line shared the blame for some of his struggles as well. Now he's got a Season under his belt, and significantly better weapons on the other end at his disposal (a fully seasoned Diggs, a shiny new toy in Treadwell to go along with utility-knife Jarius Wright looks a helluva lot better than Mike Wallace/Cordy Patterson/Charles Johnson...and speaking of CJ, recent news unveils that he played the season with a rib he cracked up against the Chargers in September, and wasn't the same the rest of the Season. Well he's fine now, and Treadwell/Johnson + Diggs/Wright is versatile and deep, and Rudolph underused/underrated has nowhere to go but up...well, look at Norv's history coordinating an offense...that entire group, collectively, acts as facilitators for Norv to exercise his will through his RB...
...I'm an old man (48) who's been playing FF for a long time (1993), and back in the 90's, it was certainly nice to have some Cowboys on your roster, but you didn't pay a premium for anyone but one Emmitt James Smith III. It's what Norv does. Couple that with a RB who's a complete 'Last of the Mohicans' throwback, and you've got an OC who forcefeeds the ball to his bell-cow, and a bull who'll eat everything you put in front of him, and still be crying for more. In Norv's world, the RB always performs at a premium level. The better the supporting cast, it just amplifies the RB production. Think a healthy and fired up AP is going to cede any carries inside the 10 to Asiata? I think not. Sure McKinnon is coming along nicely as a fresh set of legs who appears to be a more proficient receiver than AP at catching the ball, but with a healthy and fired up AP, we're going to get RB1 stats from rushing yards and TD's by themselves, and anything he contributes PPR is just icing on the cake. 32/250/? is some pretty sweet icing to a cake who's ingredients include a premium # of rushes, premium yprush, and premium TD scoring.
Add in a defense that's setting up to be an upper-tier unit, which is going to provide plenty of positive field-position opportunities for said offense...the hits just keep on coming!
AP remains a divisive Player for some, due to his 2014 personal issues. 'Age bias' isn't entirely irrational, but it's not necessarily entirely rational either. It happens, but it's not entirely predictable. Emotion-driven bias, however is completely irrational, and, knowing human nature, it's entirely possible that there are irrational FF Players who are rooting against AP because of his misguided issues with child discipline. I hope my drafts are full of them. I'll just stick to the football facts which, when taken together, render my opinion that AP will have (another) career Season...
...and I welcome being persuaded otherwise, because it almost looks to good to be true!
Contributing to the Thread:
QB: Breakout: Derek Carr; Sleeper: Matt Ryan; Bust: Eli Manning/Jameis Winston
Comment: Matt Ryan a sleeper? Currently ranked as #19 QB...Year 2 of Kyle Shanahan offense, Julio healthy, 1-2 punch at RB (see below), emerging Tamme and 2016 Sanu being just better enough than 2015 Roddy to keep defenses from 3x Julio, a new toy TE who looks to be a Red-Zone factor and a defense that can't stop anything lead me to believe Ryan slots well within the Top-12 (QB1).
RB: Breakout: Lamar Miller; Sleeper: Tevin Coleman; Bust: Matt Forte
Comment: Miller almost critically underused in Miami, could be critically overused in Houston. Everything Coleman needs to improve can be accomplished in 1 offseason - he's both more physically gifted and football talented than Freeman. Jets RB stable of Forte/Powell/Robinson is a 3-headed monster. Buying Khiry everywhere in Dynasty.
WR: Breakout: Michael Floyd/Donte Moncrief; Sleeper: Michael Thomas; Bust: Keenan Allen
Comment: I conjecture Floyd/Moncrief to the the WR1's in their respective high-octane passing O's. I haven't been as high on a rookie WR in a long time. Talent/Opportunity/QB-Offense/Supporting Cast. Chargers O-Line woes, running game questions; Woodhead/Benjamin/Gates/Henry hurt targets and TD's.
TE: Breakout: Ladarius Green; Sleeper: Will Tye; Bust: Jimmy Graham
Comment: Risky play predicting a breakout from a player switching Teams, but I think Wheaton/Coates both will improve enough this year to create plenty of space, Green is going to see looser coverage by default, and Big Ben is going to absolutely rip seams with Green up the gut. Tye beats out Donnell on talent alone, and the Giants O-Line and lack of a consistent rushing attack (and an astounding lack of understanding of how to properly employ Shane Vereen) is going to force Eli to either bomb to Beckham or dump to Tye, and the Tye targets will prove to be very efficient for both completion percentage and converting 1st downs and scores. I think Jimmy is a square peg/round hole guy in Seattle, and that deal was a disaster. Plus, that injury was just brutal, and may have relegated him to the ranks of the ordinary moving forward. Sad, very sad.
Adrian Peterson may bust in 2017, but predicting a bust in 2016, I'm very interested in hearing more, especially if it has to do with anything besides 'age bias'. I was invested heavily in Peterson both last year (good), and 2014 (ugh), and watched most of his 2015 snaps, and in my opinion, Peterson's struggles in 2015 had to do with either peripherals, or circumstances beyond his control, and still: 327/1485/11 , 30(36)/222/0 ... when one takes into consideration the injuries to, and resulting struggles of, the O-Line, it's truly remarkable what stats he was able to generate...but then when one considers that he had a year off in 2014, and, well Norv, maybe it's not so surprising after all...and all signs point to another monster Season upcoming: that same O-Line, already considered to be one of the most dominant run-blocking lines in the NFL, is fully healthy, and added Alex Boone and Andre Smith. I'm not a Bridgewater guy, but that O-Line shared the blame for some of his struggles as well. Now he's got a Season under his belt, and significantly better weapons on the other end at his disposal (a fully seasoned Diggs, a shiny new toy in Treadwell to go along with utility-knife Jarius Wright looks a helluva lot better than Mike Wallace/Cordy Patterson/Charles Johnson...and speaking of CJ, recent news unveils that he played the season with a rib he cracked up against the Chargers in September, and wasn't the same the rest of the Season. Well he's fine now, and Treadwell/Johnson + Diggs/Wright is versatile and deep, and Rudolph underused/underrated has nowhere to go but up...well, look at Norv's history coordinating an offense...that entire group, collectively, acts as facilitators for Norv to exercise his will through his RB...
...I'm an old man (48) who's been playing FF for a long time (1993), and back in the 90's, it was certainly nice to have some Cowboys on your roster, but you didn't pay a premium for anyone but one Emmitt James Smith III. It's what Norv does. Couple that with a RB who's a complete 'Last of the Mohicans' throwback, and you've got an OC who forcefeeds the ball to his bell-cow, and a bull who'll eat everything you put in front of him, and still be crying for more. In Norv's world, the RB always performs at a premium level. The better the supporting cast, it just amplifies the RB production. Think a healthy and fired up AP is going to cede any carries inside the 10 to Asiata? I think not. Sure McKinnon is coming along nicely as a fresh set of legs who appears to be a more proficient receiver than AP at catching the ball, but with a healthy and fired up AP, we're going to get RB1 stats from rushing yards and TD's by themselves, and anything he contributes PPR is just icing on the cake. 32/250/? is some pretty sweet icing to a cake who's ingredients include a premium # of rushes, premium yprush, and premium TD scoring.
Add in a defense that's setting up to be an upper-tier unit, which is going to provide plenty of positive field-position opportunities for said offense...the hits just keep on coming!
AP remains a divisive Player for some, due to his 2014 personal issues. 'Age bias' isn't entirely irrational, but it's not necessarily entirely rational either. It happens, but it's not entirely predictable. Emotion-driven bias, however is completely irrational, and, knowing human nature, it's entirely possible that there are irrational FF Players who are rooting against AP because of his misguided issues with child discipline. I hope my drafts are full of them. I'll just stick to the football facts which, when taken together, render my opinion that AP will have (another) career Season...
...and I welcome being persuaded otherwise, because it almost looks to good to be true!
Contributing to the Thread:
QB: Breakout: Derek Carr; Sleeper: Matt Ryan; Bust: Eli Manning/Jameis Winston
Comment: Matt Ryan a sleeper? Currently ranked as #19 QB...Year 2 of Kyle Shanahan offense, Julio healthy, 1-2 punch at RB (see below), emerging Tamme and 2016 Sanu being just better enough than 2015 Roddy to keep defenses from 3x Julio, a new toy TE who looks to be a Red-Zone factor and a defense that can't stop anything lead me to believe Ryan slots well within the Top-12 (QB1).
RB: Breakout: Lamar Miller; Sleeper: Tevin Coleman; Bust: Matt Forte
Comment: Miller almost critically underused in Miami, could be critically overused in Houston. Everything Coleman needs to improve can be accomplished in 1 offseason - he's both more physically gifted and football talented than Freeman. Jets RB stable of Forte/Powell/Robinson is a 3-headed monster. Buying Khiry everywhere in Dynasty.
WR: Breakout: Michael Floyd/Donte Moncrief; Sleeper: Michael Thomas; Bust: Keenan Allen
Comment: I conjecture Floyd/Moncrief to the the WR1's in their respective high-octane passing O's. I haven't been as high on a rookie WR in a long time. Talent/Opportunity/QB-Offense/Supporting Cast. Chargers O-Line woes, running game questions; Woodhead/Benjamin/Gates/Henry hurt targets and TD's.
TE: Breakout: Ladarius Green; Sleeper: Will Tye; Bust: Jimmy Graham
Comment: Risky play predicting a breakout from a player switching Teams, but I think Wheaton/Coates both will improve enough this year to create plenty of space, Green is going to see looser coverage by default, and Big Ben is going to absolutely rip seams with Green up the gut. Tye beats out Donnell on talent alone, and the Giants O-Line and lack of a consistent rushing attack (and an astounding lack of understanding of how to properly employ Shane Vereen) is going to force Eli to either bomb to Beckham or dump to Tye, and the Tye targets will prove to be very efficient for both completion percentage and converting 1st downs and scores. I think Jimmy is a square peg/round hole guy in Seattle, and that deal was a disaster. Plus, that injury was just brutal, and may have relegated him to the ranks of the ordinary moving forward. Sad, very sad.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Just saw this list of NFL Spin Zone top-5 2nd year players who they feel will break out.
I was never high on Breshard Perriman but like Mariota and DGB and DeVante. Not sure of how high Duke's ceiling is but he should be 'ok'.
http://nflspinzone.com/2016/06/03/nfl-top-5-second-year-players-will-break-2016/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
NFL: Top 5 Second-Year Players Who Will Break Out in 2016
1. QB Marcus Mariota
2. RB Duke Johnson
3. WR Dorial Green-Beckam
4. WR Breshard Perriman
5. WR DeVante Parker
I was never high on Breshard Perriman but like Mariota and DGB and DeVante. Not sure of how high Duke's ceiling is but he should be 'ok'.
http://nflspinzone.com/2016/06/03/nfl-top-5-second-year-players-will-break-2016/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
NFL: Top 5 Second-Year Players Who Will Break Out in 2016
1. QB Marcus Mariota
2. RB Duke Johnson
3. WR Dorial Green-Beckam
4. WR Breshard Perriman
5. WR DeVante Parker
Define breakout for tannehill. Like top 5 QB breakout? Or low end qb1?
I can't see osweiler becoming more than a matchup play this season. If you treat him like a rookie qb, he's unlikely to be a qb1, especially if they dont plan on running him at all
Cousins wont be on my radar in redrat becasue the price will likely be too high for my tastes
Totally 100% agree on carlos hyde. Kid looked amazing last year before his foot issues. Was producing in a #### offense. Health is the only thing that I see would keep him out of the top ten RB's this year
alf is def. worth a late round flier. there's no reason to think he wouldnt succeed if the opportunity to get significant carries comes about
I happen to still like CJA even after last year. It seemed pretty clear the turf toe really threw him off his game.
moncrief will be on everyone's breakout list this year.
qb: breakout - dont really feel too strongly about calling it a breakout, but i think jameis will continue to get better each year, real deal.
sleeper: Eli, should outperform ADP if his offensive weapons are all on the field
bust: Hate to say it, but Cam will be a top 5 qb, he just wont be #1 qb again, so the price people will pay for him in redraft will end up being too high
rb: breakout -hyde
sleeper: ryan mathews (not a sleeper per say but should outperform adp
bust: zeke, too many viable RB options on that roster. he'd really have to be gurley-esqe to command the 20+ touches he'll need to warrant his ADP
wr: breakout: moncrief
sleeper: too many to name, i could see a lot of players being drafted as wr3's prpducing at wr2 or higher (mike floyd, d parker, desean jackson, hurns, lockett etc.)
bust: Marshall, only because i cant see him playing 16 games
te: breakout & sleeper - cameron, gase's track record with athelitic TE's has been good
bust: Eifert, 13 td's from last year, would be hard pressed to replicatet that, other stats very pedestrian
sleeper: Eli, should outperform ADP if his offensive weapons are all on the field
bust: Hate to say it, but Cam will be a top 5 qb, he just wont be #1 qb again, so the price people will pay for him in redraft will end up being too high
rb: breakout -hyde
sleeper: ryan mathews (not a sleeper per say but should outperform adp
bust: zeke, too many viable RB options on that roster. he'd really have to be gurley-esqe to command the 20+ touches he'll need to warrant his ADP
wr: breakout: moncrief
sleeper: too many to name, i could see a lot of players being drafted as wr3's prpducing at wr2 or higher (mike floyd, d parker, desean jackson, hurns, lockett etc.)
bust: Marshall, only because i cant see him playing 16 games
te: breakout & sleeper - cameron, gase's track record with athelitic TE's has been good
bust: Eifert, 13 td's from last year, would be hard pressed to replicatet that, other stats very pedestrian
mikmak8902
Footballguy
Considering Bortles was the #4 QB in my dynasty league last year, it's going to be tough for him to break out.
opensourcebeer
Footballguy
stuckinthemuck
Footballguy
[SIZE=10.5pt]QB:[/SIZE][SIZE=10.5pt] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Breakout:. Winston[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Sleeper: Osweiler[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Bust: Brady. The End is Nigh. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]RB:[/SIZE][SIZE=10.5pt][/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Breakout: Duke Johnson[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Sleeper: Charles Sims [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Bust: Thomas Rawls[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]WR:[/SIZE][SIZE=10.5pt][/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Breakout: Donte Moncrief[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Sleeper: Jeff Janis[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Bust: Jarvis Landry[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]TE:[/SIZE][SIZE=10.5pt][/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Breakout:. Ladarius Green[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Sleeper: Charles Clay[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Bust: Eric Ebron[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Breakout:. Winston[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Sleeper: Osweiler[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Bust: Brady. The End is Nigh. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]RB:[/SIZE][SIZE=10.5pt][/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Breakout: Duke Johnson[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Sleeper: Charles Sims [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Bust: Thomas Rawls[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]WR:[/SIZE][SIZE=10.5pt][/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Breakout: Donte Moncrief[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Sleeper: Jeff Janis[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Bust: Jarvis Landry[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]TE:[/SIZE][SIZE=10.5pt][/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Breakout:. Ladarius Green[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Sleeper: Charles Clay[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Bust: Eric Ebron[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]QB:[/SIZE][SIZE=10.5pt] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Breakout: RG3 (A 2nd breakout I guess... solid o-line, solid receivers/TE/pass-catching back, great coach, all depends on health)[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Sleeper: T. Bridgewater[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Bust: J. Winston[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]RB:[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Breakout: I. Crowell[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Sleeper: C. Sims[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Bust: F. Gore[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]WR:[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Breakout: S. Diggs[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Sleeper: P. Dorsett[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Bust: T. Smith (a lot of his fantasy production depends on the deep ball, I'm not sure that the O-line can give Gabbert enough time, who will struggle with pressure)[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]TE:[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Breakout: Z. Ertz [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Sleeper: J. Graham[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Bust: Z. Miller[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Breakout: RG3 (A 2nd breakout I guess... solid o-line, solid receivers/TE/pass-catching back, great coach, all depends on health)[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Sleeper: T. Bridgewater[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Bust: J. Winston[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]RB:[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Breakout: I. Crowell[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Sleeper: C. Sims[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Bust: F. Gore[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]WR:[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Breakout: S. Diggs[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Sleeper: P. Dorsett[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Bust: T. Smith (a lot of his fantasy production depends on the deep ball, I'm not sure that the O-line can give Gabbert enough time, who will struggle with pressure)[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]TE:[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Breakout: Z. Ertz [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Sleeper: J. Graham[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Bust: Z. Miller[/SIZE]
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Ditka Butkus
Footballguy
Dezbelief
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
He was hurt and missed a few games, but Ingram has already broken out. He's a workhorse back when healthy.
Ron_Mexico
I Love Doggies
I love people predicting BUST for Brady every year.
One of these years you'll be right..... just not this one.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Not that hard to predict, he was a fantasy bust in 2013 and a disappointment in 2014 as well. Short memories...
Run It Up
Footballguy
Torn with Brady's suspension this season. Feel like this is the best offense they've had in years and it's unlikely they'll be able to resign Bennett so it feels like he is missing out on breaking some records. On the other hand he comes back after week 4 plays four games and then has bye and is fresh for the playoff run - so in that respect I feel like he's probably a Sleeper at this point.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
Sleepers
Not a sleeper or a breakout but CJ Anderson is going th be very very busy.until he gets hurt that is ..
Dwill is a 1300 yard 10+ beast in the making.
Derrick Henry - seriously now, D. Murray is a bum RB who lucked in to the best O- LINE in history in Dallas plain and simple. Mathews made him look like chump change in Philly..
Jay Ajayi - you have a better chance of having tea with Jesus than watching 'ole man' Foster beat out Ajayi for starting gig..Laremy Tunsil.enough said.
Michael Crabtree - does Cooper regress and hit the sophomore slump??
Redskins' defense
Matty Ice..dude was 6th best QB in '14.
Will Tye.
Breakout
David Carr.CJ Anderson ( breakout or sleeper its his year). Osweiler.Jets' defense Geno Smith ( eff Fitzpatrick) ,Matt Jones, Mariota , Lacy
Busts
Bell, Yeldon, Cardinals offense as a whole, Tannehill( that dog wont hunt), Cam Newton wont come CLOSE to his '15 stats, Romo, Cutler as always, Langford
Not a sleeper or a breakout but CJ Anderson is going th be very very busy.until he gets hurt that is ..
Dwill is a 1300 yard 10+ beast in the making.
Derrick Henry - seriously now, D. Murray is a bum RB who lucked in to the best O- LINE in history in Dallas plain and simple. Mathews made him look like chump change in Philly..
Jay Ajayi - you have a better chance of having tea with Jesus than watching 'ole man' Foster beat out Ajayi for starting gig..Laremy Tunsil.enough said.
Michael Crabtree - does Cooper regress and hit the sophomore slump??
Redskins' defense
Matty Ice..dude was 6th best QB in '14.
Will Tye.
Breakout
David Carr.CJ Anderson ( breakout or sleeper its his year). Osweiler.Jets' defense Geno Smith ( eff Fitzpatrick) ,Matt Jones, Mariota , Lacy
Busts
Bell, Yeldon, Cardinals offense as a whole, Tannehill( that dog wont hunt), Cam Newton wont come CLOSE to his '15 stats, Romo, Cutler as always, Langford
Faust
MVP
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