updated[SIZE=10.5pt]QB:[/SIZE][SIZE=10.5pt] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Breakout: RG3 (A 2nd breakout I guess... solid o-line, solid receivers/TE/pass-catching back, great coach, all depends on health)[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Sleeper: T. Bridgewater[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Bust: J. Winston[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]RB:[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Breakout: I. Crowell[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Sleeper: C. Sims[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Bust: Any Dolphins RB[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]WR:[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Breakout: S. Diggs[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Sleeper: P. Dorsett[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Bust: T. Smith (a lot of his fantasy production depends on the deep ball, I'm not sure that the O-line can give Gabbert enough time, who will struggle with pressure)[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]TE:[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Breakout: C. Walford - I considered putting T. Eifert here but everyone knows how good he can be if healthy. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Sleeper: W. Tye[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Bust: Z. Miller[/SIZE]
I would temper expectations on that one. I know Kelly's rep and how he got surprisingly solid QB/WR play with marginal talent in Phi but SF looks to have sub-sub-sub marginal talent at QB & WR.
Can you explain your logic on the Brown's RB's. I have them reversed. I think the offense will be a power running game with Crowell to set up the long ball. The addition of RG3 and the option for him to run should help Crowell as well.QB
Breakout: Jameis Winston
Sleeper: Sam Bradford
Bust: Brock Osweiler
RB
Breakout: Duke Johnson.
Sleeper: James White
Bust: Isaiah Crowell
WR
Breakout: Tyler Lockett
Sleeper: Sterling Shepard
Bust: Josh Gordon
TE
Breakout: Eric Ebron
Sleeper: Jesse James
Bust: Ladarius Green
Jesse James and James white- good calls thereQB
Breakout: Jameis Winston
Sleeper: Sam Bradford
Bust: Brock Osweiler
RB
Breakout: Duke Johnson.
Sleeper: James White
Bust: Isaiah Crowell
WR
Breakout: Tyler Lockett
Sleeper: Sterling Shepard
Bust: Josh Gordon
TE
Breakout: Eric Ebron
Sleeper: Jesse James
Bust: Ladarius Green
Splitting carries with Chris Ivory (who may actually be better) would seem to put a damper on that. It's not "totally insane" though.I am totally insane for thinking TJ Yeldon is going to break out in a major way? Dude has size, can catch the ball and is in a good offense.
My guess is he thinks they will be playing from behind a lot so if that's the case it plays more into Duke's strengths than Crowell's...Can you explain your logic on the Brown's RB's. I have them reversed. I think the offense will be a power running game with Crowell to set up the long ball. The addition of RG3 and the option for him to run should help Crowell as well.
I see Johnson as more of a 3rd down back and not getting many carries.
Just my take, interested in what you think.
If you would have watched the past 2 preseason games you would be moving KB into the breakout category. He looks like an animal out there. He made two incredible catches and some good blocks last game. I think the "out of shape" mantra is a bit overstated.Bust: TIE... Kelvin Benjamin/Jordy Nelson (back from major injury, one is reportedly a bit out of shape and still unpolished, the other is 31-yrs old... one will disappoint, the other will claim the title of BUST).
Marshall is about as durable as they come and nuts about conditioning. I think he's missed about 5 games in 10 years.qb: breakout - dont really feel too strongly about calling it a breakout, but i think jameis will continue to get better each year, real deal.
sleeper: Eli, should outperform ADP if his offensive weapons are all on the field
bust: Hate to say it, but Cam will be a top 5 qb, he just wont be #1 qb again, so the price people will pay for him in redraft will end up being too high
rb: breakout -hyde
sleeper: ryan mathews (not a sleeper per say but should outperform adp
bust: zeke, too many viable RB options on that roster. he'd really have to be gurley-esqe to command the 20+ touches he'll need to warrant his ADP
wr: breakout: moncrief
sleeper: too many to name, i could see a lot of players being drafted as wr3's prpducing at wr2 or higher (mike floyd, d parker, desean jackson, hurns, lockett etc.)
bust: Marshall, only because i cant see him playing 16 games
te: breakout & sleeper - cameron, gase's track record with athelitic TE's has been good
bust: Eifert, 13 td's from last year, would be hard pressed to replicatet that, other stats very pedestrian
With what they paid Ivory I expect a RBBC for certain, which may curtail breakout potential.I am totally insane for thinking TJ Yeldon is going to break out in a major way? Dude has size, can catch the ball and is in a good offense.
Yeah I like TJ but he's an in between the 20s back this year.With what they paid Ivory I expect a RBBC for certain, which may curtail breakout potential.
Maybe so. Hopefully the CAR starters will get a good bit of work Friday night and the smoke will clear a bit.pantherclub said:If you would have watched the past 2 preseason games you would be moving KB into the breakout category. He looks like an animal out there. He made two incredible catches and some good blocks last game. I think the "out of shape" mantra is a bit overstated.
Duke Johnson can be a lot more than a 3rd down back and the coach said as much during training camp. I also get the feeling the Browns coaches aren't all that pleased with Crowell and he's on a short leash. I think Duke Johnson a better RB than Crowell. If he starts to eat into Crowell's carries I believe he will take advantage of it.abbottjamesr said:Can you explain your logic on the Brown's RB's. I have them reversed. I think the offense will be a power running game with Crowell to set up the long ball. The addition of RG3 and the option for him to run should help Crowell as well.
I see Johnson as more of a 3rd down back and not getting many carries.
Just my take, interested in what you think.
Maybe so. Hopefully the CAR starters will get a good bit of work Friday night and the smoke will clear a bit.
I like Yeldon, but watching their games last year and with the signing of Ivory it does not seem like their coaches do too much.BobbyLayne said:Yeah I like TJ but he's an in between the 20s back this year.
From what I've seen of Crowell and heard from the coaches, they're excited about him and what he brings to the offense.Duke Johnson can be a lot more than a 3rd down back and the coach said as much during training camp. I also get the feeling the Browns coaches aren't all that pleased with Crowell and he's on a short leash. I think Duke Johnson a better RB than Crowell. If he starts to eat into Crowell's carries I believe he will take advantage of it.
Curious - if Johnson is being drafted in the 6th (often 5th), and Crowell is taken in the 8th-9th, then how is Crowell a bust if he doesn't perform as well as Johnson?Breakout: Duke Johnson
Bust: Crowell
I stand by my predictions. By end of the year, I think Duke will have more points than Crowell in a PPR setting. I don't see Crowell as being the legit starter for the full year or half a year. He might not be a colossal bust based off his ADP, but he will, in my opinion, bust on a team that had him as the starter because they will look Duke Johnsons way more and more as the season progresses. Crowell will lose his starter job.Curious - if Johnson is being drafted in the 6th (often 5th), and Crowell is taken in the 8th-9th, then how is Crowell a bust if he doesn't perform as well as Johnson?
Wouldn't that be the expectation based on ADP?
If anything, I'd say Johnson is more likely to be a bust if he fails to out-score Crowell.
NFL Network was recently mentioning that RGIII is still having issues with accurately throwing the check down/screen passes in practice. If that's true, it's another reason to temper expectations for Duke.From what I've seen of Crowell and heard from the coaches, they're excited about him and what he brings to the offense.
It was very dicey for a while when Crowell had his little social media dust-up, but his sincere apologies seems to have gotten him out of the doghouse, and CLE appears to want him to be the bruiser, relegating Duke to receiving/COP. Maybe the comments you heard were from when Crowell was in hot water.
Historically, having a mobile QB like RGIII (provided he remains the starter & stays healthy) can be a serious disadvantage for a receiving back like Johnson, which, for now, is what he is. RGIII is more likely to take off and run than check down to a RB, and Crowell is a better short yardage back.
So whether Duke is capable of being more than a 3rd down back or not doesn't seem to be relevant in light of the fact that he probably is one. So his touches will likely be limited by his QB, and he won't get the tough inside carries because Crowell is better at it and better built for it - and the GL carries are also likely to go to Crowell or RGIII, further diminishing his value.
So if anything I see Duke Johnson as one of the more overrated RBs right now, and think he's being over drafted in the 6th round, while Crowell goes 2-3 rounds later.
I stand by my predictions. By end of the year, I think Duke will have more points than Crowell in a PPR setting. I don't see Crowell as being the legit starter for the full year or half a year. He might not be a colossal bust based off his ADP, but he will, in my opinion, bust on a team that had him as the starter because they will look Duke Johnsons way more and more as the season progresses. Crowell will lose his starter job.
So I don't agree with your skill breakdown or judgement on how he's out of the doghouse. I see Johnson being used in multiple ways as a receiver and rusher with his talent outshining Crowell at some point during this year.
Also... I got Duke in the 7th last night... He routinely goes in the 7th/8th.
Yep. Plus the whole CLE offense is a bit of a mystery.NFL Network was recently mentioning that RGIII is still having issues with accurately throwing the check down/screen passes in practice. If that's true, it's another reason to temper expectations for Duke.
In the 24 real drafts that I have been in, Duke has been in the 7th/8th range. I was talking about season totals at the end of the year, not purely basing it off of ADP. If you missed what I said, sorry?I'm talking ADP, not where you got him in 1 draft.
And again: if Duke is going 2-3 rounds higher than Crowell, isn't the obvious expectation that he'll score more?
Still missing how Crowell will be a bust if Duke Johnson scores more.
I thought you sounded like you drafted Duke, you didn't have to tell me.
I own shares of neither right now.
And where has Crowell gone in those 24 real drafts? 2-3 rounds later than Duke, right?In the 24 real drafts that I have been in, Duke has been in the 7th/8th range. I was talking about season totals at the end of the year, not purely basing it off of ADP. If you missed what I said, sorry?
Agreed to disagree though.
Actually, they're routinely butted up against eachother in drafts. ADP wasn't what I was talking about when I posted my Breakout/Sleepers/Busts. So I don't see your logic applied to my predictions either, since that wasn't the basis. Flawed logic.And where has Crowell gone in those 24 real drafts? 2-3 rounds later than Duke, right?
So I just don't see your logic.
You might as well post, "Duke is a stud, and Crowell is a bust. Duke "
lol
Actually no - my logic is clear. I'll explain it again for you:Actually, they're routinely butted up against eachother in drafts. ADP wasn't what I was talking about when I posted my Breakout/Sleepers/Busts. So I don't see your logic applied to my predictions either, since that wasn't the basis. Flawed logic.
YOU could post "Duke is a stud, and Crowell is a bust. Duke" ... but that wasn't what I said. Ignorance is bliss though. Agreed to disagree.
TLDRActually no - my logic is clear. I'll explain it again for you:
IF one player is drafted ahead of another (e.g. going by ADP from 1000s of leagues, not just your alleged 24), THEN Duke Johnson is going 2-3 rounds earlier than Crowell.
And since in the vast majority of leagues (including one I drafted in last Saturday) Duke Johnson goes 2-3 rounds earlier than Crowell, then Duke Johnson MUST out-score Crowell or be labelled a "bust", whereas IF Crowell has even identical value to Duke Johnson, then one could argue that Crowell was a "value pick".
Since we're not all in your 24 leagues, we go by ADP, which is what 99.99% of FFB-ers use to determine draft value.
And if you're talking about busts/sleepers, then you absolutely are talking about value. Hopefully we're seeing apples to apples now, but you can go ahead and agree to disagree if you'd like.
Not really. Again, ignorance is bliss... whatever helps you sleep at night.Hot Sauce Guy said:Translation: you can't or won't defend your statement/prediction.
but thanks for playing.
I thought personal attacks were against forum rules.Not really. Again, ignorance is bliss... whatever helps you sleep at night.
I just don't want to get in a pointless back and forth with someone who cannot comprehend another viewpoint. It's fighting a losing battle... and then adding in pompous replies like "You can't or won't defend your statement/prediction"... and being demeaning... not the telling mark of high intellect. So I question the "point", continuing this conversation with you and realize there is none.
So I take the higher route, agreeing to disagree, because we will never see eye-to-eye, and I'm not sure I want to.
But thanks for playing.
You haven't attempted to engage politely... Nor have I said anything terrible. "Ignorance is bliss" is a phrase, a good phrase to describe this. If you get offended by that, you get offended by a lot. Please do put me on ignore, THANK YOU. (I have already added you).I thought personal attacks were against forum rules.
2nd time you've called me "ignorant" - I'd appreciate it if you would refrain from insulting me.
I've attempted to engage politely. Now I'll just put you on ignore. Enjoy your Duke Johnson love affair.
If anything, he called you pompous and stupid.I thought personal attacks were against forum rules.
2nd time you've called me "ignorant" - I'd appreciate it if you would refrain from insulting me.
I've attempted to engage politely. Now I'll just put you on ignore. Enjoy your Duke Johnson love affair.
Done. Apologies for the distraction. I was genuinely interested in discussing the values of those two players. It became quickly apparent the other person was not.Why don't you both take this offline. TIA.