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Breakouts, Sleepers, Busts (1 Viewer)

QB
Breakout: Paxton Lynch - He will take over by week 4 and with a solid running game, stout defense and big arm will be able to get his playmakers the ball.  A must stash in two QB leagues.  (Honorable Mention: Dak Prescott - Obvious, but I'm drinking the kool-aid)
Sleeper: Joe Flacco - His ADP isn't even registered on ffcalc ADP, offensive line has been upgraded, he now has Wallace to draw the PI's and love Terrance West and the run game.
Bust: Ben Roethlisburger - His upside is capped with no Bryant and no Bell for 3 games, and he's being drafted like a top 5 QB.  He's not and drafting him in the 5th-6h is a good path to a bad team.

RB
Breakout: Carlos Hyde - It can't be worse for him than it was last year.  Gameflow scares me a bit with Hyde, but I believe in his talent.  Has some risk, but also stud upside.  Top 5 finish could be in store for him.
Sleeper: Terrance West - Not sure how much of a sleeper he is at this point, but it's just a matter of time before he eclipses Forsett who is starting to run like a 30 yo back.  
Bust: Lamar Miller - His ADP has risen to RB4 at 1.09 overall.  In front of guys with plenty of volume (theorettically one of Miller's strengths) that have proven more than Miller has in 4 seasons.  Aside from the OLine woes, he hasn't looked very special this preseason.  I believe he's a playmaker and has talent, but he is NOT a bellcow and a top 5 RB.  He will be on a lot of bad teams this year.  (Honorable Mention: Jay Ajayi - Pretty obvious by now, but he is clearly a limited player who is a backup.  ADP is coming back down to earth)

WR
Breakout:  Tyler Lockett - Number 2 WR on a low volume passing offense, is what will people will say was foolish thinking for avoiding him this year.  He's a special player and like Baldwin seems to be locked in with RW on his jailbreak plays.  Also believe the Seahawks make a firm pivot from run first mentality this season with RW as the unquestioned leader of offense with Lynch gone.
Sleeper: Tyler Boyd - He's just a playmaker and is already likely the #2 on a really good team that has a lot of missing targets from 2015.  His game translates perfectly for the NFL as he doesn't rely on raw athleticism to get open. 
Bust: Kelvin Benjamin -  His rookie year was propped up by volume.  It's clear Newton still loves Ginn, and it sounds like Funchess is improving, Olsen is still there.  With a 3rd round ADP, he will be an anchor for boats who are relying on him for WR1 or upper WR2 production.  

TE
Breakout:  Zac Ertz - Should finally get the volume needed with a terrible receiving corp in Philly.  I think this is the year he puts it all together.  
Sleeper:  Austin Hooper - I never draft rookie TE's, and you probably shouldn't either.  But I'm liking the playmaking ability in that offense, it may take a little while but I think he has a realistic shot of being a viable starting fantasy TE this season.  
Bust: Jimmy Graham - He's not coming back, and if he does it will just be a matter of time before he gets hurt again and he will be a shell of himself which by the way wasn't that productive last year before injury.   The comprehensive list of skill players who have come back to even close to their former selves after patellar injuries in NFL: (none).  It's been 2 years for Victor Cruz and he still hasn't been able to see the field.  Jimmy Graham is finished.  

 
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tone1oc said:
WR
Breakout:  Tyler Lockett - Number 2 WR on a low volume passing offense, is what will people will say was foolish thinking for avoiding him this year.  He's a special player and like Baldwin seems to be locked in with RW on his jailbreak plays.  Also believe the Seahawks make a firm pivot from run first mentality this season with RW as the unquestioned leader of offense with Lynch gone.
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I really hope this is right. So far he's run behind Kearse all preseason and it has me really worried. I drafted him in the 6.09 spot as my WR3, and while he was 3/45/1 last night (yay!) he was also out-snapped by Kearse again (boo!). 

So yeah - I was very high on Lockett....now I'm a little concerned. I think he's more talented than either Kearse or Baldwin, but will there be enough volume? Most of the sites are projecting him for a more modest improvement than most FFB folks...if he has an 80 reception season I think he'll live up to the breakout call. If it's closer to 60, maybe not. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I really hope this is right. So far he's run behind Kearse all preseason and it has me really worried. I drafted him in the 6.09 spot as my WR3, and while he was 3/45/1 last night (yay!) he was also out-snapped by Kearse again (boo!). 

So yeah - I was very high on Lockett....now I'm a little concerned. I think he's more talented than either Kearse or Baldwin, but will there be enough volume? Most of the sites are projecting him for a more modest improvement than most FFB folks...if he has an 80 reception season I think he'll live up to the breakout call. If it's closer to 60, maybe not. 
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I hear you, volume is the obvious concern.  That said, not afraid of Kearse blocking him and instead of worrying about snap counts, I'm more excited about the 3/45/1 line. 

 
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Breakout: Tyrod Taylor. Buffalo's D is a mess of injuries and suspensions while T-Mobile has a new contract with a ton of offensive weapons. He'll be forced to win shootouts. 30+ TDs, 10 Ints, 3,800 yds

Sleeper: Blaine Gabbert puts up respectable FF bkup numbers in SF. QB#15 or so, and will get better as the season goes on.

Bust: Mark Ingram. Please tell me why a guy who's been in the league for 5 years and never rushed for even a 1000 yards is suddenly everyone's fantasy darling? Forget it. He'll be RB#15-20 at best and the bane of his ADP.

 
tone1oc said:
Breakout:  Tyler Lockett - Number 2 WR on a low volume passing offense, is what will people will say was foolish thinking for avoiding him this year.  He's a special player and like Baldwin seems to be locked in with RW on his jailbreak plays.  Also believe the Seahawks make a firm pivot from run first mentality this season with RW as the unquestioned leader of offense with Lynch gone.
Click to expand...


tone1oc said:
Bust: Jimmy Graham - He's not coming back, and if he does it will just be a matter of time before he gets hurt again and he will be a shell of himself which by the way wasn't that productive last year before injury.   The comprehensive list of skill players who have come back to even close to their former selves after patellar injuries in NFL: (none).  It's been 2 years for Victor Cruz and he still hasn't been able to see the field.  Jimmy Graham is finished.  
Click to expand...


- First of all, nice write-up overall.

Secondly Lockett and Graham are related. Obviously Lockett is potentially a great talent but i keep avoiding him in drafts because I keep buying that Graham will return and that Kearse will split time or play ahead of him.

But the truth may be that Lockett is a special playmaker and those guys find the ball or it finds them. I almost feel in my bones that I will regret passing on Lockett.

However I also am not ready to write off Graham yet. Physically, mentally he is a tough hombre, and if he comes back the Hawks will want to use him.

 
tone1oc said:
Breakout: Carlos Hyde - It can't be worse for him than it was last year.  Gameflow scares me a bit with Hyde, but I believe in his talent.  Has some risk, but also stud upside.  Top 5 finish could be in store for him.
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Actually I'm really looking forward to watching the 9ers this year. I know that sounds strange but I enjoy the Kelly offense and I think it could be cool seeing all these no names and has beens (besides Hyde) running around in open spaces. What bugs me is I just know there will be 6 games a year when I will feel like benching them because of matchups. That does include Hyde.

 
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SaintsInDome2006 said:
The Saints will be leaning on Snead quite a bit this year I think. There is not the usual rotation of receivers, Thomas is WR3, the connection with Fleener appears to be developing slowly. Also the defense should stink again, so more pushing down the field.
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Can you expand on this a little bit? What do you mean by not the usual rotation of receivers? A smaller rotation? 

 
ryno1980 said:
Can you expand on this a little bit? What do you mean by not the usual rotation of receivers? A smaller rotation? 
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The usual spread it out variety I think everyone is familiar with from the prior class of receivers, so Moore, Graham, Colston, Meachem, RBs, anyone could be the focus in any game, or within a game there was no real primary target. I think this will be more traditional and Brees will be focusing in on Snead more to move the chains every game, especially early in the season.

 
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flysack said:
Bust: Mark Ingram. Please tell me why a guy who's been in the league for 5 years and never rushed for even a 1000 yards is suddenly everyone's fantasy darling? Forget it. He'll be RB#15-20 at best and the bane of his ADP.
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Murphy's law pretty much. Gotta be fantastic one of these years! And if he doesn't again this year, you'll hear breakout next season as well.

 
NREC34 said:
I see Big Ben on a bunch of these lists to avoid. Crazy talk! 
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He doesn't have much to throw to after Brown. People are drafting him penciling in last year when he had Bryant which is a mistake IMO. Bryant was a big loss.

 
ponchsox said:
He doesn't have much to throw to after Brown. People are drafting him penciling in last year when he had Bryant which is a mistake IMO. Bryant was a big loss.
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id suggest cutting back on sleep as your SB approaches, if your opponent owns Brown  (could be nightmares)

 
ponchsox said:
He doesn't have much to throw to after Brown. People are drafting him penciling in last year when he had Bryant which is a mistake IMO. Bryant was a big loss.
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yeah this is silly - aside from Brown, Wheaton and Coates are there and Bell and DWill are both excellent receivers out of the backfield. In addition Roethlisberger uses his TE very effectively and Jesse James has looked very good in Green's absence (and I think is better than Green)

 
Captain Hook said:
yeah this is silly - aside from Brown, Wheaton and Coates are there and Bell and DWill are both excellent receivers out of the backfield. In addition Roethlisberger uses his TE very effectively and Jesse James has looked very good in Green's absence (and I think is better than Green)
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And there's also Eli Rogers in the mix now

 
I didn't read the entire thread so someone may have listed Rob Kelley and/or Mack Brown - not just because of a couple good pre-season games but because Matt Jones is still not completely healthy. Those are exactly the type of lotto tickets to find in the finals rounds of a draft - IF Jones can't go you have a starting running back.

I saw some mentions of Lockett and while I love the guys talent I disagree with those who think the Seahawks will pass as much as they did at the end of  last year - just not Pete Carroll's style and if Rawls is healthy, he and perhaps Michael can run enough to move that offense.

One final note is that I have seen Tim Hightower drafted in several leagues - makes sense given what he did at the end of last year and the inability of Ingram or any other Saints running back in a while to be a consistent bell cow.

 
One other name to put on your late list - not that I am convinced the 49ers even with Chip Kelly will be scoring a lot more - or that Carlos Hyde will finally be what some think he was/will be - Hyde is injured (not sure of current status) and so is Shawn Draughns who has had some viable games on fantasy roster. That would leave Mike Smith as a possible starter or rotation back

 
Captain Hook said:
One other name to put on your late list - not that I am convinced the 49ers even with Chip Kelly will be scoring a lot more - or that Carlos Hyde will finally be what some think he was/will be - Hyde is injured (not sure of current status) and so is Shawn Draughns who has had some viable games on fantasy roster. That would leave Mike Smith as a possible starter or rotation back
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Mike Davis.

 
Captain Hook said:
I didn't read the entire thread so someone may have listed Rob Kelley and/or Mack Brown - not just because of a couple good pre-season games but because Matt Jones is still not completely healthy. Those are exactly the type of lotto tickets to find in the finals rounds of a draft - IF Jones can't go you have a starting running back.

I saw some mentions of Lockett and while I love the guys talent I disagree with those who think the Seahawks will pass as much as they did at the end of  last year - just not Pete Carroll's style and if Rawls is healthy, he and perhaps Michael can run enough to move that offense.

One final note is that I have seen Tim Hightower drafted in several leagues - makes sense given what he did at the end of last year and the inability of Ingram or any other Saints running back in a while to be a consistent bell cow.
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Cut and signed to ps. I do like Kelley at his price. 

 
SLEEPER:

Gore is older, but he's still salty as hell. He actually had more yards from scrimmage last year than in 2014. AND dude hasn't missed a game in 5 years (80 straight games). Pretty safe to pencil him in for 16 until proven otherwise. 

Also, he missed 1,000 yards rushing last year by just 33 yds. Before last year, rushed for 1,000+ yards in last 4 seasons straight and 8 of the last 9. The fact that he put up 967 rush yards behind that line last year, with hasselbeck at QB, against a stacked box, tells you he's still got gas in the tank. Lacy - 758 rush yds last year.  Plus Gore got more targets and receptions than he had in the past five years...with Hasselbeck throwing the rock. 

Last year the Luck-less Colts had 3704 pass yards (10th worst in the league). The year before that - 4,894...#1 baby. Now Luck is back....

Is Gore going to do WORSE this year? Hell no. Luck is better than Matt Hasselbeck. Add a hundred yards and a few touchdowns to Gore's total last year and he would've finished in the top five, outscoring Gurley. 

 
FUBAR said:
I apologize for asking, but how does one list Breakout/Sleepers/Busts without considering ADP?
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I'm not sure... I do consider ADP when thinking about a Breakout/Sleepers/Busts list, but it's only a factor... one of a few.

 
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pbandy1 said:
[SIZE=10.5pt]QB:[/SIZE][SIZE=10.5pt] [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Breakout:  RG3 (again)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Sleeper:    M. Ryan[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Bust:          A. Luck - I say this because I just don't think he'll be healthy. An awful offensive line and an awful defense - he's going to take a beating.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]RB:[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Breakout:  J. Langford[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Sleeper:    C. Sims[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Bust:         Any Dolphins RB[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]WR:[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Breakout:  S. Watkins (as in, top 5 from here on out)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Sleeper:    D. Parker (yes, people are down on him right now, but I'm still a believer. Tannehill will have to throw a lot and I still think Parker can be the best receiver on this team)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Bust:         T. Smith (a lot of his fantasy production depends on the deep ball, I'm not sure that the O-line can give Gabbert enough time, who will struggle with pressure)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]TE:[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Breakout: Z. Ertz (keeping this the same - even without Bradford)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Sleeper:   J. Graham[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Bust:         Z. Miller[/SIZE]
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updated due to injuries/trades etc

 
I'm calling Langford as one of the biggest busts of the year. 

Load up on Jordan Howard wherever you can. 

 
Tanner9919 said:
Sleepers 

Not a sleeper or a breakout but CJ Anderson is going th be very very busy.until he gets hurt that is ..

Dwill is a 1300 yard 10+ beast in the making.

Derrick Henry - seriously now,  D. Murray is  a bum RB who lucked in to the best O- LINE in history in Dallas plain and simple. Mathews made him look like chump change in Philly..

Jay Ajayi - you have a better chance of having tea with Jesus than watching  'ole man' Foster beat out Ajayi for starting gig..Laremy Tunsil.enough said.

Michael Crabtree - does Cooper regress and hit the sophomore slump??

Redskins' defense

Matty Ice..dude was 6th best QB in '14.

Will Tye.

Breakout

David Carr.CJ Anderson ( breakout or sleeper its his year). Osweiler.Jets' defense Geno Smith ( eff Fitzpatrick) ,Matt Jones, Mariota , Lacy

Busts

Bell, Yeldon, Cardinals offense as a whole, Tannehill( that dog wont hunt),  Cam Newton wont come CLOSE to his '15 stats, Romo, Cutler as always, Langford
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When is tea time?

 
Melvin Gordon shows up in this thread 4 times.

Once as breakout, once as sleeper, and twice as bust. This is one player I am constantly going back and forth on.

 
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SaintsInDome2006 said:
Melvin Gordon shows up in this thread 4 times.

Once as breakout, once as sleeper, and twice as bust. This is one player I am constantly going back and forth on.
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yea, not a good year(last year) for him to really evaluate for this year, thus the 50-50 on bust or winner.

 
Gordon will be much improved.  Had him last year he busted, this year primed for nice progress. I'm thinking finishes 15 or so

 
I drafted Sankey and Hunter with my last picks. I like the warm reception in MIA for Hunter

 
SayWhat? said:
Can you expand a bit on this warm reception Bri?
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Pasting:

Dolphins head coach Adam Gase — who said Jefferson had "nothing but great this to say about" Hunter — views this as a rare chance to improve the wide receivers corps.

Another:

“I think we were just a little bit surprised that we’d have an opportunity to get him,” Gase said. “I kind of went back and looked at my evaluation of him because I did remember him coming out. We were doing a lot of work on wide receivers that year. That was kind of helpful just to kind of have an idea of what his skill set was. We felt like he fit into what we’re looking for. We’ve got one big guy, but it’s always nice to have a couple of guys with some good size. We thought this was an opportunity to help us really improve that group.” Gase said he also got good feedback on Hunter from wide receivers coach Shawn Jefferson, who was Hunter’s position coach in Tennessee the past three seasons. For Hunter, a second-round pick in 2013 who joined the Dolphins with 68 career catches, being reunited with Jefferson should help his transition to a new team. “Just feel like it helps a lot just for the fact that I had him three years and I know how he coaches and I know what he wants out of me and everything like that,” Hunter said. “(He wants me to) just go out there and play my game. Play like I know how to play.” Hunter, who stands 6-4, was asked to describe his game. “I just say I’m a deep-ball guy, deep threat,” Hunter said. “I (try to) stretch the field as much as I can.” Hunter said joining the Dolphins represents a fresh start for him. “It’s a whole new group of guys, new team, new organization,” he said. “They believed in me enough to bring me here. I’m honored.” 

Done pasting*************

It was a little too happy little too surprised...half the world thought Hunter was going to be cut and Gase is surprised? 

They played a clip of Jefferson RAVING about Hunter on Tennessee radio and the hosts were like "how come he didn't feel that way when he was here" and I'm listening thinking, thanks for the 3 TE offense Whis.

Gase sounds excited, like truly excited just got a new toy.

Hunter doing the "I'm honored to be here" was sooo perfect.

Like I said just a bit much a bit kissy or something like aww cmon now.

He IS expected to play this week and be used as a deep threat. 

Also maybe hmmm was how their frustration with Parker and Jakeem Grant has been spoken about right after.

Pasting 

Parker didn't practice Monday, and Gase said it's a hamstring issue, but not always the same issue. Gase said one day it's Parker's right hamstring, then it's the left hamstring, and it's been different locations on both hamstrings.

"It has never been something that we can say, 'It has always been the same thing,'" Gase said. "We keep working with him.

Pasting again

Gase said he's not sure if rookie wide receiver Jakeem Grant, who has had trouble with routes and his hands, is ready to serve as a backup slot receiver.

"I think we're still working through that," Gase said. "There are certain things that he has done well, and there are certain things he has struggled at."


 

 
To reiterate-

Team a bit too happy but that's positive

Oh there was another quote where he called the WR corps a basketball team now or somesuch

Thrusting him right into it is a good sign

Parker injuries sound real annoying

Grant doesn't sound like much for 2016

I know Caroo isn't doing so well just yet.

It's perfect. Stills and Landry can start, he can fill in and play 3 WR set.

I would also wager that Parker gets healthy real fast, but we'll see. It was enough for a last pick in a draft

 
I always liked Hunter's measurables but he has never lived up to the alleged talent.  So I'm not sure that the endorsement of the position coach who couldn't get him to perform even 30 catches or 500 yards in a season is much to hang your hat on.

He should be WW fodder in all but reasonably deep dynasty leagues and not rostered in all but the craziest redrafts.

 
I will believe that about hunter when I see it.  Dude has been a gigantic bust and I don't think Miami is going to change that 

 
need2know said:
I will believe that about hunter when I see it.  Dude has been a gigantic bust and I don't think Miami is going to change that 
Click to expand...
Please understand the thread and that I said I took he and Sankey with last pick in an FFdraft. Very different than some higher round with expectations

 
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