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AJ Jenkins. (2 Viewers)

thecatch said:
Ministry of Pain said:
I feel like Harbaugh knows when it is the right time. I like AJ Jenkins but he is clearly behind Crabtree right now and Anquan Boldin plus Mario Manningham are likely to make bigger impacts even in 2013. Boldin might be the new Derrick mason where teams wanting to make deep playoff runs want him around. I'm not sure how long Boldin can play in SF but I would expect another 1-2 years for sure. I think Jenkins will see more action but the Niners are trying to win a Super Bowl right now with the team they got and waiting for WRs to develop is gonna be tough...just ask New England when they were piling up Lombardi trophies.
I'm not sure Boldin is more than a 1 year rental, and I think Crabtree probably walks when his deal is up in two years. I think this is going to put a lot more pressure on the team to develop younger, cheaper WR this season, particularly since I think the team will use more 3 WR sets to accommodate Kaepernick's explosiveness as a passer. The upshot is I think Jenkins gets a much longer look this year - if he doesn't show us anything fairly early this year, there's probably nothing to see.
Crabtree will more likely prove himself as the guy who would be granted a contract extension given his chemistry with Kaep. I think Crabs will have a better year than last.

 
Sigmund Bloom said:
WRs taken in the fourth round since 95 gives you names like Brandon Marshall, Derrick Mason, Mike Williams, Cecil Shorts...

I would probably rather have a 4th round WR with a clean slate who I liked going into the draft than a 1st round pick WR who flopped in his rookie year.
I like that you are bringing the historical comps into the discussion, but I think we need to think of all the 4th round misses as well. Looking at 4th round receivers from 1995-2011 I would take the careers/trajectories of the following 8 players over the risk/reward profile of Jenkins:

Derrick Mason

Marcus Robinson

Brandon Lloyd

Jerricho Cotchery

Brandon Marshall

Brian Hartline

Mike Williams

Cecil Shorts

Compare that to the following list of 60 other 4th round WRs in that time period:

Albert ConnellAnthony LucasArman ShieldsAustin CollieAvion BlackAz-Zahir HakimBrandon StokleyCarlos FrancisCedric JamesCharlie JonesChase LymanChris DavisCory RodgersCraig YeastCraphonso ThorpeDameane DouglasDanny FarmerDemetrius WilliamsDomenik HixonDonald HayesEdmond GatesEric BjornsonErnest WilfordFred GibsonGari ScottGreg SalasJack JacksonJacoby FordJahine ArnoldJason AvantJerome MathisJulian PittmanJustin ArmourJustin McCareinsKeenan BurtonKeith PooleKris DurhamLarry ParkerLavelle HawkinsLouis MurphyMacey BrooksMarcus EasleyMarcus SmithMarty GilyardMike ThomasMilton WynnNa BrownReggie BarlowRon JohnsonRoydell WilliamsRyne RobinsonSam AikenSamie ParkerShaun McDonaldSkyler GreenTandon DossTim DwightTrevor GaylorTyrone DavisWilliam Franklin
So based on historical comps, I think there is less than a 12% chance I would regret my decision to hold Jenkins over a given 4th round WR.

Other people might take a couple extra WRs in the 2nd list, but you pretty much need to be totally convinced Jenkins is a bust if you are willing to give him up for this price.
Bloom's point is that we can evaluate players for our purposes better than taking the raw bust rate of players by round. I believe it's true since we are looking for things a little differently than NFL teams.
and if we do, then the bust rate of 1st rd WRs who stayed healthy in rook year and contributed so little is worse than 12%...

Are you able to run the numbers on this - 1st round WR's picked #20-32 with less than 20 catches their rookie season while healthy? It seems such a small sample size.

Three guys I was able to find that fit this profile and were successful were Lynn Swann, Haywood Jeffires and Mike Quick.

 
Sigmund Bloom said:
WRs taken in the fourth round since 95 gives you names like Brandon Marshall, Derrick Mason, Mike Williams, Cecil Shorts...

I would probably rather have a 4th round WR with a clean slate who I liked going into the draft than a 1st round pick WR who flopped in his rookie year.
I like that you are bringing the historical comps into the discussion, but I think we need to think of all the 4th round misses as well. Looking at 4th round receivers from 1995-2011 I would take the careers/trajectories of the following 8 players over the risk/reward profile of Jenkins:

Derrick Mason

Marcus Robinson

Brandon Lloyd

Jerricho Cotchery

Brandon Marshall

Brian Hartline

Mike Williams

Cecil Shorts

Compare that to the following list of 60 other 4th round WRs in that time period:

Albert ConnellAnthony LucasArman ShieldsAustin CollieAvion BlackAz-Zahir HakimBrandon StokleyCarlos FrancisCedric JamesCharlie JonesChase LymanChris DavisCory RodgersCraig YeastCraphonso ThorpeDameane DouglasDanny FarmerDemetrius WilliamsDomenik HixonDonald HayesEdmond GatesEric BjornsonErnest WilfordFred GibsonGari ScottGreg SalasJack JacksonJacoby FordJahine ArnoldJason AvantJerome MathisJulian PittmanJustin ArmourJustin McCareinsKeenan BurtonKeith PooleKris DurhamLarry ParkerLavelle HawkinsLouis MurphyMacey BrooksMarcus EasleyMarcus SmithMarty GilyardMike ThomasMilton WynnNa BrownReggie BarlowRon JohnsonRoydell WilliamsRyne RobinsonSam AikenSamie ParkerShaun McDonaldSkyler GreenTandon DossTim DwightTrevor GaylorTyrone DavisWilliam Franklin
So based on historical comps, I think there is less than a 12% chance I would regret my decision to hold Jenkins over a given 4th round WR.

Other people might take a couple extra WRs in the 2nd list, but you pretty much need to be totally convinced Jenkins is a bust if you are willing to give him up for this price.
Bloom's point is that we can evaluate players for our purposes better than taking the raw bust rate of players by round. I believe it's true since we are looking for things a little differently than NFL teams.
and if we do, then the bust rate of 1st rd WRs who stayed healthy in rook year and contributed so little is worse than 12%...
Are you able to run the numbers on this - 1st round WR's picked #20-32 with less than 20 catches their rookie season while healthy? It seems such a small sample size.

Three guys I was able to find that fit this profile and were successful were Lynn Swann, Haywood Jeffires and Mike Quick.

I think it was a lot more common before the 90s for 1st rd WRs to not contribute much in their rookie year. I listed the 1st rd picks who didn't catch more than 20 balls or started 0/1 games in their rookie year since 95 earlier in the thread and the list ain't pretty.

 
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I agree with most on here. Sig brings some great points. Other have countered with different points. I think he's in the grab bag of guys below the top tier of rookies this season. I put him right in there behind Dobson and ahead of Patton. Which means, in a 10 team 24 man roster dynasty league, he's waiver wire fodder. Maybe a late grab if this draft goes horribly for me. I can't see counting on him at this point for any more than typical rookie production meaning about 25 catches or so. Basically useless for 2013. Maybe he really emerges in 2014 though when this team might make a big turnover and move on from Gore and Boldin.

He's got to beat out Manningham. If he can't do that, toss him back for somebody who can beat out a journeyman. Don't know who that will be but it will be much clearer in August.

 
from Rotoworld:

49ers WR A.J. Jenkins admits his rookie season was "very humbling," and is trying to bulk up from 192 pounds to 200.
"From being the top dog on campus to not playing at all, it teaches you a lot about the game and you try learning from the sidelines and other players," Jenkins said. "I need to make sure it doesn’t happen again this year." In the mix for No. 3 receiver duties behind Michael Crabtree and Anquan Boldin, Jenkins is currently tipping the scales at 196. For the time being, he remains off the fantasy radar.

Source: San Jose Mercury News
 
The thing is this though, if he can't surpass Boldin and Manningham, he probably isn't going to make it in the NFL. It's like when Cobb was drafted and everyone said he wouldn't have opportunities because he was buried. It didn't matter because talent rises. They made room for him. If Jenkins can't get force his way onto the field this year, I doubt he ever really does. He certainly won't have much fantasy value although he may eek out a "Jason Avant" type career.
I agree with this.

Thanks Bloom for putting the first year flop into perspective. At the same time, Harbaugh has shown that he's patient with rookies. That somewhat offsets Jenkin's first year performance.

I will say that when Jenkins made the field last year, he looked absolutely lost. I don't think I'll ever forget the game late in the season where he was on the field for one play and didn't know where to line up.

This year is do or die time.

 
The thing is this though, if he can't surpass Boldin and Manningham, he probably isn't going to make it in the NFL. It's like when Cobb was drafted and everyone said he wouldn't have opportunities because he was buried. It didn't matter because talent rises. They made room for him. If Jenkins can't get force his way onto the field this year, I doubt he ever really does. He certainly won't have much fantasy value although he may eek out a "Jason Avant" type career.
I agree with this.

Thanks Bloom for putting the first year flop into perspective. At the same time, Harbaugh has shown that he's patient with rookies. That somewhat offsets Jenkin's first year performance.

I will say that when Jenkins made the field last year, he looked absolutely lost. I don't think I'll ever forget the game late in the season where he was on the field for one play and didn't know where to line up.

This year is do or die time.
The NFL is a very hard game and takes time to learn. Tony Romo has had to tell Dez Bryant where to line up since he was a rookie, maybe that will change in his 4th year. I was shocked when Jenkins went in the first, but obviously Harbaugh saw something he liked so I'll wait another year before bailing.

 
from Rotoworld:

49ers WR A.J. Jenkins admits his rookie season was "very humbling," and is trying to bulk up from 192 pounds to 200.
"From being the top dog on campus to not playing at all, it teaches you a lot about the game and you try learning from the sidelines and other players," Jenkins said. "I need to make sure it doesn’t happen again this year." In the mix for No. 3 receiver duties behind Michael Crabtree and Anquan Boldin, Jenkins is currently tipping the scales at 196. For the time being, he remains off the fantasy radar.

Source: San Jose Mercury News
If he can keep getting bigger he'll have a lot better comps - right now he's right around Maclin (198), maybe a bit faster, but a few more pounds and he's around Torrey Smith (204).

 
I keep going back to Bloom's post earlier in this thread regarding the fact that, by the end of the year, they were playing guys off the street basically over Jenkins. I see the open door but I have to think he has a lot of figurative weight to lose to get through it.

 
I keep going back to Bloom's post earlier in this thread regarding the fact that, by the end of the year, they were playing guys off the street basically over Jenkins. I see the open door but I have to think he has a lot of figurative weight to lose to get through it.
1st round pick with a starting job his for the taking. If he doesn't seize this opportunity there's something wrong with him.

 
I keep going back to Bloom's post earlier in this thread regarding the fact that, by the end of the year, they were playing guys off the street basically over Jenkins. I see the open door but I have to think he has a lot of figurative weight to lose to get through it.
1st round pick with a starting job his for the taking. If he doesn't seize this opportunity there's something wrong with hiH
He couldn't seize the opportunity over chad hall last year I don't know why there is optimism around him...

 
I think everyone understands that he sucked last year. He did not catch one freaking pass, got beat out by the team accountant, and did not earn any playing time to speak of. That was last year. The fact is that he was a first round pick by this top-notch organization, he has spent his offseason working with the team's franchise quarterback, has added muscle to his physique indicating he has been working out fairly hard, the teams number receiver is now out for the season, and he has acknowledged that he was not prepared to be a professional last year (admitting and realizing his missed opportunity).

I don't care if catching zero passes in your rookie year is an indication for a career of failure, every year something that has not happened in the past occurs. He is with a great organization and has a tremendous opportunity to solidify himself this year. I have no idea how good or bad he will be but for his price tag I have invested. If he fails or does not show anything with this years upcoming circumstances I would be willing to write him off.

 
I think everyone understands that he sucked last year. He did not catch one freaking pass, got beat out by the team accountant, and did not earn any playing time to speak of. That was last year. The fact is that he was a first round pick by this top-notch organization, he has spent his offseason working with the team's franchise quarterback, has added muscle to his physique indicating he has been working out fairly hard, the teams number receiver is now out for the season, and he has acknowledged that he was not prepared to be a professional last year (admitting and realizing his missed opportunity).

I don't care if catching zero passes in your rookie year is an indication for a career of failure, every year something that has not happened in the past occurs. He is with a great organization and has a tremendous opportunity to solidify himself this year. I have no idea how good or bad he will be but for his price tag I have invested. If he fails or does not show anything with this years upcoming circumstances I would be willing to write him off.
I think a lot of people thought the 49ers went way early for jenkins last year.

Aside from that the difference between him and every other person that didn't have a catch last year and lost out position battles to the team accountant is that this particular person has a two page thread on him.

Could he blow up next year and be the next crabtree...sure he could, but so could chad hall. One of the two has at least proven something on the field.

 
For those dynasty owners not buying a lottery ticket on Jenkins following Crabtree's injury why not? He is cheaper than cheap and the situation is set up perfectly to hit a jackpot. If you have room on the end of your roster what do you have to lose?

 
For those dynasty owners not buying a lottery ticket on Jenkins following Crabtree's injury why not? He is cheaper than cheap and the situation is set up perfectly to hit a jackpot. If you have room on the end of your roster what do you have to lose?
Because there is room on the end of the roster for only a couple of guys and there is a lot more people out on our FA list that has more potential then jenkins...hell I think Patton has a better chance then him.

Edit to add that I think the value in sleepers lies mostly in the realm of rb and maybe a qb. Someone like Jenkins, who couldn't get off the bench last year, just isn't going to turn into a 1500 12td wr....

where as lots of rbs every year do find there way onto the field at some point and perform at a high level. Hook your band wagon to a rookie qb that might turn into the next rodgers...there is just more value there

 
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For those dynasty owners not buying a lottery ticket on Jenkins following Crabtree's injury why not? He is cheaper than cheap and the situation is set up perfectly to hit a jackpot. If you have room on the end of your roster what do you have to lose?
Because there is room on the end of the roster for only a couple of guys and there is a lot more people out on our FA list that has more potential then jenkins...hell I think Patton has a better chance then him. Edit to add that I think the value in sleepers lies mostly in the realm of rb and maybe a qb. Someone like Jenkins, who couldn't get off the bench last year, just isn't going to turn into a 1500 12td wr.... where as lots of rbs every year do find there way onto the field at some point and perform at a high level. Hook your band wagon to a rookie qb that might turn into the next rodgers...there is just more value there
13 WR's went off the board before Patton and 3 before Jenkins. Physically, Jenkins is a far superior athlete and while that doesn't mean Patton can't overtake him I think Jenkins is given every opportunity to succeed before they give up on him.
 
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But he could very well turn into a 62 receptions, 700 yards and 5 TD'S type of receiver in his 2nd season after putting up bupkiss his rookie year, all while playing as 3rd in pecking order behind Boldin and Davis. Is that so bad then going into his 3rd season? Those are modest numbers but also signs of progress that he could develop. Glass is half full.

 
I find it funny that since he hasn't seen the field that automatically means he can't play. Colin Kaepernick didn't beat out Alex Smith last year, that clearly means that Alex Smith is better than Colin Kaepernick, right? ;)


You'd be foolish to write this guy off so early. It's not like he's dog####.



Besides, who's going to catch deep lasers from Kaepernick off play-action and whatnot? I'll take a chance on the guy they drafted in the 1st Round who runs a 4.39 forty.
 
I find it funny that since he hasn't seen the field that automatically means he can't play. Colin Kaepernick didn't beat out Alex Smith last year, that clearly means that Alex Smith is better than Colin Kaepernick, right? ;)

You'd be foolish to write this guy off so early. It's not like he's dog####.

This arguement has been debunked numerous times in this thread. He wasn't on the bench behind probowl wrs he was on the bench behind chad hall. They literally signed free agent wr's off the street during the year instead of playing him...

so to use your analogy this isn't alex smith vs ck this is alex smith gets hurt, they sign jeff george and start him, he gets hurt so they bring trent dilfer out of retirement, he gets hurt and they wheel out warren moon in a wheel chair and he starts...if that happened to CK we could all agree the coaches don't clearly see much in him.

 
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For those dynasty owners not buying a lottery ticket on Jenkins following Crabtree's injury why not? He is cheaper than cheap and the situation is set up perfectly to hit a jackpot. If you have room on the end of your roster what do you have to lose?
Because there is room on the end of the roster for only a couple of guys and there is a lot more people out on our FA list that has more potential then jenkins...hell I think Patton has a better chance then him. Edit to add that I think the value in sleepers lies mostly in the realm of rb and maybe a qb. Someone like Jenkins, who couldn't get off the bench last year, just isn't going to turn into a 1500 12td wr.... where as lots of rbs every year do find there way onto the field at some point and perform at a high level. Hook your band wagon to a rookie qb that might turn into the next rodgers...there is just more value there
13 WR's went off the board before Patton and 3 before Jenkins. Physically, Jenkins is a far superior athlete and while that doesn't mean Patton can't overtake him I think Jenkins is given every opportunity to succeed before they give up on him.
And once again, as it has been said numerous times in the thread explain to me how Jenkins hasn't already been given every chance to succeed??? People are making it sound like he just couldn't crack the line up because the line up was fill with all-pros. To top it off the 49ers go out and draft another wr this year...

Take a flyer on him...that's all it is though. He has the same chance of coming through as daniel thomas does of rushing for 1500yds and 10tds and the ceiling is way higher for a guy like thomas

 
I keep going back to Bloom's post earlier in this thread regarding the fact that, by the end of the year, they were playing guys off the street basically over Jenkins. I see the open door but I have to think he has a lot of figurative weight to lose to get through it.
1st round pick with a starting job his for the taking. If he doesn't seize this opportunity there's something wrong with him.
yeah we should have a pretty conclusive answer on Jenkins now. Honestly with Manningham and Kyle Williams both out, he should be getting the lion's share of first-team reps opposite Boldin in OTAs... if he's not, that's a bad sign. Obviously camp and preseason will be big for him. 49ers personnel moves (or lack thereof) will tell a big story here too.

 
I keep going back to Bloom's post earlier in this thread regarding the fact that, by the end of the year, they were playing guys off the street basically over Jenkins. I see the open door but I have to think he has a lot of figurative weight to lose to get through it.
1st round pick with a starting job his for the taking. If he doesn't seize this opportunity there's something wrong with him.
yeah we should have a pretty conclusive answer on Jenkins now. Honestly with Manningham and Kyle Williams both out, he should be getting the lion's share of first-team reps opposite Boldin in OTAs... if he's not, that's a bad sign. Obviously camp and preseason will be big for him. 49ers personnel moves (or lack thereof) will tell a big story here too.
:goodposting:

 
The path for Jenkins just got much wider to make the field. He has a chance to be the WR2 or at least be one of the 2 outside receivers. I would think a 2nd or 3rd round rookie pick or something like Jenkins and a 3rd for a 2nd round rookie pick coming back if you want. At the least you should be able to use him as a pawn to move up in a round if need be.

I think his future is looking better by the minute.

 
I keep going back to Bloom's post earlier in this thread regarding the fact that, by the end of the year, they were playing guys off the street basically over Jenkins. I see the open door but I have to think he has a lot of figurative weight to lose to get through it.
1st round pick with a starting job his for the taking. If he doesn't seize this opportunity there's something wrong with hiH
He couldn't seize the opportunity over chad hall last year I don't know why there is optimism around him...
This type of post is very close minded I have to say. Your mind is made up so why even post about it. Why are you not open to the idea he can make some waves this year on a talented team expected to make the Super Bowl?

 
I agree. I have a rookie draft in 2 hours. Jenkins is in the pool. I'll post here where he is selected with the Crabtree injury taken into account. Of course every league is different but it will be a nice frame of reference.

 
I agree. I have a rookie draft in 2 hours. Jenkins is in the pool. I'll post here where he is selected with the Crabtree injury taken into account. Of course every league is different but it will be a nice frame of reference.
Late 3rd or 4th I'm guessing, would love to know the results Saber.

 
I find it funny that since he hasn't seen the field that automatically means he can't play. Colin Kaepernick didn't beat out Alex Smith last year, that clearly means that Alex Smith is better than Colin Kaepernick, right? ;)

You'd be foolish to write this guy off so early. It's not like he's dog####.

So, we should ignore his talent and ignore the fact his Quarterback (Kaepernick) has said he is improving?Harbaugh isn't an idiot.

The guy has had one-career target. Do you honestly think if given playing time, he wouldn't have produced?

I'd be more concerned if he was on the field and stunk it up.

 
I keep going back to Bloom's post earlier in this thread regarding the fact that, by the end of the year, they were playing guys off the street basically over Jenkins. I see the open door but I have to think he has a lot of figurative weight to lose to get through it.
1st round pick with a starting job his for the taking. If he doesn't seize this opportunity there's something wrong with hiH
He couldn't seize the opportunity over chad hall last year I don't know why there is optimism around him...
Chad Hall didn't even receive a target last year.
 
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I agree. I have a rookie draft in 2 hours. Jenkins is in the pool. I'll post here where he is selected with the Crabtree injury taken into account. Of course every league is different but it will be a nice frame of reference.
Late 3rd or 4th I'm guessing, would love to know the results Saber.
I sniffed around before the owner in my league knew about Crabs. Said he might talk to me about a mid 2nd but want sure. Someone's in love.
 
I find it funny that since he hasn't seen the field that automatically means he can't play. Colin Kaepernick didn't beat out Alex Smith last year, that clearly means that Alex Smith is better than Colin Kaepernick, right? ;)

You'd be foolish to write this guy off so early. It's not like he's dog####.

This is kind of my thoughts too. For some reason he was not given his shot last year. If he is not given a shot this year, he's probably done. But if he gets some targets and shows the skills that caused Harbaugh to draft him, he might turn into something. He's a lottery ticket at this point. Just like every rookie wideout outside the top 5. Once you start getting into the 3rd and 4th round guys, they are very scattershot. Some hit, most miss. But Jenkins has to show something to cause Harbaugh to select him. He must have seen something to pass on guys like Alshon Jeffrey.

 
I agree. I have a rookie draft in 2 hours. Jenkins is in the pool. I'll post here where he is selected with the Crabtree injury taken into account. Of course every league is different but it will be a nice frame of reference.
Late 3rd or 4th I'm guessing, would love to know the results Saber.
He was the 30th player selected. Here is how it went down. We have a 10 team start 2qb league with 24 man rosters. So some guys opted out early because we don't have taxi or IR squads. Bonus points if you guess which team is mine.

3.05 Deputy Spades Allen, Keenan SDC WR ® 10:23:07 p.m.

3.06 Deputy Spades Eifert, Tyler CIN TE ® 10:25:05 p.m.

3.07 MUSCLE HAMSTERS No Pick 10:26:55 p.m.

3.08 A Matt Millen production Broyles, Ryan DET WR 10:29:39 p.m.

3.09 Silverbacks Glennon, Mike TBB QB ® 10:30:14 p.m.

3.10 Deputy Spades Michael, Christine SEA RB ® 10:30:50 p.m.

4.01 Crucial Taunt No Pick 10:32:42 p.m.

4.02 Buck Futters*FU* No Pick 10:32:45 p.m.

4.03 The Carpet Layers Nassib, Ryan NYG QB ® 10:33:31 p.m.

4.04 BIGerections No Pick 10:34:20 p.m.

4.05 A Matt Millen production Jenkins, A.J. SFO WR 10:35:02 p.m.

4.06 Caged Ignorance No Pick 10:35:18 p.m.

4.07 MUSCLE HAMSTERS No Pick 10:35:27 p.m.

4.08 Caged Ignorance No Pick 10:35:30 p.m.

4.09 Silverbacks Brown, Vincent SDC WR 10:39:31 p.m.

4.10 Rub some dirt on it ! Wheaton, Markus PIT WR ® 10:39:48 p.m

 
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I agree. I have a rookie draft in 2 hours. Jenkins is in the pool. I'll post here where he is selected with the Crabtree injury taken into account. Of course every league is different but it will be a nice frame of reference.
Late 3rd or 4th I'm guessing, would love to know the results Saber.
He was the 30th player selected. Here is how it went down. We have a 10 team start 2qb league with 24 man rosters. So some guys opted out early because we don't have taxi or IR squads. Bonus points if you guess which team is mine.

3.05 Deputy Spades Allen, Keenan SDC WR ® 10:23:07 p.m.

3.06 Deputy Spades Eifert, Tyler CIN TE ® 10:25:05 p.m.

3.07 MUSCLE HAMSTERS No Pick 10:26:55 p.m.

3.08 A Matt Millen production Broyles, Ryan DET WR 10:29:39 p.m.

3.09 Silverbacks Glennon, Mike TBB QB ® 10:30:14 p.m.

3.10 Deputy Spades Michael, Christine SEA RB ® 10:30:50 p.m.

4.01 Crucial Taunt No Pick 10:32:42 p.m.

4.02 Buck Futters*FU* No Pick 10:32:45 p.m.

4.03 The Carpet Layers Nassib, Ryan NYG QB ® 10:33:31 p.m.

4.04 BIGerections No Pick 10:34:20 p.m.

4.05 A Matt Millen production Jenkins, A.J. SFO WR 10:35:02 p.m.

4.06 Caged Ignorance No Pick 10:35:18 p.m.

4.07 MUSCLE HAMSTERS No Pick 10:35:27 p.m.

4.08 Caged Ignorance No Pick 10:35:30 p.m.

4.09 Silverbacks Brown, Vincent SDC WR 10:39:31 p.m.

4.10 Rub some dirt on it ! Wheaton, Markus PIT WR ® 10:39:48 p.m
You mention that there were 30 players taken ahead of Jenkins, but in alot of leagues, guys like Eifert & Allen are first-round rookie picks...curious -- were there alot of veteran free agents taken?

 
How quickly people forget things.

There are certain "rules" in fantasy football.

1) Rookie RBs will almost always be overdrafted

and

2) WRs typically do not make a real impact until year 3.

Maybe Jenkins will make an impact this year. Maybe he won't until years 4. WRs take time to develop. Tossing a player on the trash heap because of a non-existant rookie season completely throws this time tested theory out the window.

 
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Caveman_Nick said:
How quickly people forget things. There are certain "rules" in fantasy football.1) Rookie RBs will almost always be overdraftedand2) WRs typically do not make a real impact until year 3.Maybe Jenkins will make an impact this year. Maybe he won't until years 4. WRs take time to develop. Tossing a player on the trash heap because of a non-existant rookie season completely throws this time tested theory out the window.
I don't think you can rely on these types of 'rules' anymore. QBs blowing up as rookies. TE's much more of a factor in offense. RBs becoming a commodity. Rookie and 2nd year WRs as legit WR1-2 on teams.
 
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"Rules" are just observations based on trends, often due to coaching decisions. If you argue that Harbaugh held Jenkins back that's one thing, but Jenkins own attitude suggests the NFL just overwhelmed him. He claims to have a better perspective. Whatever, the prospects of a 1st round WR who never saw the field are abysmal.

 
King of the Jungle said:
Kevin Lynch IMO is one of the better beat writers in the Bay Area who focuses on the 49ers, and has been doing it for years. So even if based on his keen observation, I would find it substantial.

 
I agree. I have a rookie draft in 2 hours. Jenkins is in the pool. I'll post here where he is selected with the Crabtree injury taken into account. Of course every league is different but it will be a nice frame of reference.
Late 3rd or 4th I'm guessing, would love to know the results Saber.
He was the 30th player selected. Here is how it went down. We have a 10 team start 2qb league with 24 man rosters. So some guys opted out early because we don't have taxi or IR squads. Bonus points if you guess which team is mine.
You mention that there were 30 players taken ahead of Jenkins, but in alot of leagues, guys like Eifert & Allen are first-round rookie picks...curious -- were there alot of veteran free agents taken?
Here is how the draft went. This is the first time we did it this early and I think some owners kind of mailed it in. Not me, I was Deputy Spades...loved my draft. But it just seemed like much of the league was out of touch with the players values. Or hell maybe I was because my board looked vastly different than others. Players that Jenkins went ahead of that had me scratching me head were

1.01 1. Rub some dirt on it ! Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB ® Wed May 22 9:35:20 p.m. ET 2013
1.02 2. Silverbacks Manuel, E.J. BUF QB ® Wed May 22 9:40:01 p.m. ET 2013
1.03 3. Rub some dirt on it ! Ball, Montee DEN RB ® Wed May 22 9:40:10 p.m. ET 2013
1.04 4. MUSCLE HAMSTERS Lacy, Eddie GBP RB ® Wed May 22 9:42:26 p.m. ET 2013
1.05 5. Crucial Taunt Austin, Tavon STL WR ® Wed May 22 9:42:55 p.m. ET 2013
1.06 6. Caged Ignorance Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR ® Wed May 22 9:44:27 p.m. ET 2013
1.07 7. A Matt Millen production Patterson, Cordarrelle MIN WR ® Wed May 22 9:49:22 p.m. ET 2013
1.08 8. MUSCLE HAMSTERS Franklin, Johnathan GBP RB ® Wed May 22 9:50:10 p.m. ET 2013
1.09 9. Deputy Spades Smith, Geno NYJ QB ® Wed May 22 9:50:19 p.m. ET 2013
1.10 10. The Carpet Layers Brown, Andre NYG RB Wed May 22 9:52:03 p.m. ET 2013
2.01 11. The Carpet Layers Barkley, Matt PHI QB ® Wed May 22 9:54:04 p.m. ET 2013
2.02 12. Buck Futters*FU* Wilson, Tyler OAK QB ® Wed May 22 9:56:46 p.m. ET 2013
2.03 13. The Carpet Layers Seahawks, Seattle SEA Def Wed May 22 10:00:12 p.m. ET 2013
2.04 14. MUSCLE HAMSTERS Bernard, Giovani CIN RB ® Wed May 22 10:00:44 p.m. ET 2013
2.05 15. Deputy Spades Lattimore, Marcus SFO RB ® Wed May 22 10:00:55 p.m. ET 2013
2.06 16. Caged Ignorance Stacy, Zac STL RB ® Wed May 22 10:01:10 p.m. ET 2013
2.07 17. Silverbacks Hunter, Justin TEN WR ® Wed May 22 10:04:41 p.m. ET 2013
2.08 18. Caged Ignorance Randle, Joseph DAL RB ® Wed May 22 10:05:09 p.m. ET 2013
2.09 19. Buck Futters*FU* Woods, Robert BUF WR ® Wed May 22 10:05:36 p.m. ET 2013
2.10 20. Caged Ignorance Rams, St. Louis STL Def Wed May 22 10:05:44 p.m. ET 2013
3.01 21. Crucial Taunt Cook, Jared STL TE Wed May 22 10:08:27 p.m. ET 2013
3.02 22. Buck Futters*FU* Rogers, Da'Rick BUF WR ® Wed May 22 10:09:07 p.m. ET 2013
3.03 23. The Carpet Layers Dobson, Aaron NEP WR ® Wed May 22 10:10:55 p.m. ET 2013
3.04 24. BIGerections No Pick Made Wed May 22 10:22:28 p.m. ET 2013 Pick Skipped By Commissioner
3.05 25. Deputy Spades Allen, Keenan SDC WR ® Wed May 22 10:23:07 p.m. ET 2013
3.06 26. Deputy Spades Eifert, Tyler CIN TE ® Wed May 22 10:25:05 p.m. ET 2013
3.07 27. MUSCLE HAMSTERS No Pick Made Wed May 22 10:26:55 p.m. ET 2013 Pick Skipped By Commissioner
3.08 28. A Matt Millen production Broyles, Ryan DET WR Wed May 22 10:29:39 p.m. ET 2013
3.09 29. Silverbacks Glennon, Mike TBB QB ® Wed May 22 10:30:14 p.m. ET 2013
3.10 30. Deputy Spades Michael, Christine SEA RB ® Wed May 22 10:30:50 p.m. ET 2013
4.01 31. Crucial Taunt No Pick Made Wed May 22 10:32:42 p.m. ET 2013 Pick Skipped By Commissioner
4.02 32. Buck Futters*FU* No Pick Made Wed May 22 10:32:45 p.m. ET 2013 Pick Skipped By Commissioner
4.03 33. The Carpet Layers Nassib, Ryan NYG QB ® Wed May 22 10:33:31 p.m. ET 2013
4.04 34. BIGerections No Pick Made Wed May 22 10:34:20 p.m. ET 2013 Pick Skipped By Commissioner
4.05 35. A Matt Millen production Jenkins, A.J. SFO WR Wed May 22 10:35:02 p.m. ET 2013
4.06 36. Caged Ignorance No Pick Made Wed May 22 10:35:18 p.m. ET 2013 Pick Skipped By Commissioner
4.07 37. MUSCLE HAMSTERS No Pick Made Wed May 22 10:35:27 p.m. ET 2013 Pick Skipped By Commissioner
4.08 38. Caged Ignorance No Pick Made Wed May 22 10:35:30 p.m. ET 2013 Pick Skipped By Commissioner
4.09 39. Silverbacks Brown, Vincent SDC WR Wed May 22 10:39:31 p.m. ET 2013
4.10 40. Rub some dirt on it ! Wheaton, Markus PIT WR ® Wed May 22 10:39:48 p.m. ET 2013
5.01 41. Crucial Taunt No Pick Made Wed May 22 10:41:36 p.m. ET 2013 Pick Skipped By Commissioner
5.02 42. Buck Futters*FU* No Pick Made Wed May 22 10:41:37 p.m. ET 2013 Pick Skipped By Commissioner
5.03 43. The Carpet Layers Stills, Kenny NOS WR ® Wed May 22 10:42:03 p.m. ET 2013
5.04 44. BIGerections No Pick Made Wed May 22 10:42:34 p.m. ET 2013 Pick Skipped By Commissioner
5.05 45. A Matt Millen production Burleson, Nate DET WR Wed May 22 10:44:53 p.m. ET 2013
5.06 46. Caged Ignorance No Pick Made Wed May 22 10:45:57 p.m. ET 2013 Pick Skipped By Commissioner
5.07 47. MUSCLE HAMSTERS No Pick Made Wed May 22 10:45:58 p.m. ET 2013 Pick Skipped By Commissioner
5.08 48. A Matt Millen production Gillislee, Mike MIA RB ® Wed May 22 10:47:32 p.m. ET 2013
5.09 49. Silverbacks Zuerlein, Greg STL PK Wed May 22 10:48:26 p.m. ET 2013
5.10 50. Rub some dirt on it ! Dwyer, Jonathan PIT RB Wed May 22 10:48:46 p.m. ET 2013

 
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Caveman_Nick said:
How quickly people forget things. There are certain "rules" in fantasy football.1) Rookie RBs will almost always be overdraftedand2) WRs typically do not make a real impact until year 3.Maybe Jenkins will make an impact this year. Maybe he won't until years 4. WRs take time to develop. Tossing a player on the trash heap because of a non-existant rookie season completely throws this time tested theory out the window.
I don't think you can rely on these types of 'rules' anymore. QBs blowing up as rookies. TE's much more of a factor in offense. RBs becoming a commodity. Rookie and 2nd year WRs as legit WR1-2 on teams.
Sure, that stuff happens from time to time. My point is that you don't throw in the towel on a rookie WR for doing nothing. They generally take time to develop.

 
But it just seemed like much of the league was out of touch with the players values.

2.03 13. The Carpet Layers Seahawks, Seattle SEA Def Wed May 22 10:00:12 p.m. ET 2013

2.04 14. MUSCLE HAMSTERS Bernard, Giovani CIN RB ® Wed May 22 10:00:44 p.m. ET 2013
 
Rotoworld:

Speaking Tuesday, coach Jim Harbaugh said A.J. Jenkins is coming off his best week of practice in a 49ers uniform.
OC Greg Roman agreed. "(Just) made some clutch catches for us moving the ball," Roman said. "Just made plays, did all the right things, made plays when he had the opportunity. And he just needs to continue to do that." Jenkins has had few highlights as a 49er, so even a good showing in pad-less practices is noteworthy. He's battling with Quinton Patton for a starting job.


Source: Sacramento Bee
 
Shocked no one else wanted to make a comment. AJ Jenkins stock is slowly rising, trading in the single digits, when do you jump in on this?

 
Shocked no one else wanted to make a comment. AJ Jenkins stock is slowly rising, trading in the single digits, when do you jump in on this?
The time to buy was before the Crabtree injury, but if you can still get him for a 2nd he's still a buy.

 
Here we go, i think this article is pretty fair.

http://www.mercurynews.com/monte-poole/ci_23438500/poole-49ers-j-jenkins-trying-make-amends

SANTA CLARA -- If it's too soon to conclude A. J. Jenkins is an NFL bust, listening to his words and hearing the voice within would explain why "bust" was an accurate assessment of his rookie season with the 49ers. Jenkins, in so many words, admits to underestimating the NFL. Consider all suspicions confirmed by the source.

"It's a lot faster, man," Jenkins said Tuesday. "The windows are a lot smaller than in college. (Defensive backs) are a lot quicker and faster. Every catch is going to be more like a contested catch. Mostly in college you're like wide open all the time. But in the league, you have to really have strong hands because DBs are going to be right on you most of the time."

Jenkins got schooled in ways he never did during a rich collegiate career at Illinois. Arriving in the Bay Area last spring for rookie minicamps, the first-round draft choice was confident but poorly conditioned. He was puzzled by the playbook and physically overmatched.

One year later, Jenkins is diving into the three-day minicamp at team headquarters with what seems a much better idea of what it takes to survive, much less thrive. He looks bigger, saying his weight is up to around 200 pounds. And he's drawing praise.

"The last two days of last week he had the two best days he's had since I've been here," offensive coordinator Greg Roman said

.

"A.J. had his best week of football since he's been a 49er the last four days of OTAs, which was the last week of OTAs," coach Jim Harbaugh said. "And he continues to build on that."

A note of caution: Harbaugh and Roman tend to avoid public critiques, opting to speak of their players in reverent tones, and Harbaugh at times is downright defensive. When reporters last spring took note of Jenkins' unimpressive early showing, implying he was a bust, Harbaugh's response was an unprompted scolding in Jenkins' defense.

He said Jenkins had "exceeded expectations" and "will be an outstanding football player in the National Football League."

The rookie repaid his supportive coach with an invisible season, rarely playing and compiling zero statistics. No catches, no yards.

That's why his goals in 2013 are so clear. Jenkins must, above all, redeem himself. That would validate Harbaugh's faith and, moreover, vindicate the risk taken by general manager Trent Baalke, who surprised observers by selecting Jenkins with the 30th overall pick in 2012.

Jenkins, until he proves otherwise, is little more than the most conspicuous blight on the G.M.'s generally impressive draft record. And it stings.

"You just have to tune everybody else out," Jenkins said, embarking on some self-talk. "Just go into the season and think about your job and your focus. The media covered everything. Being a first-round draft pick, they all want to put this label on you, call you all kinds of things."

Things such as "bust," which will define Jenkins if he can't measure up to league standards -- and quickly, considering the condition of San Francisco's wide receiver corps.

Michael Crabtree, the team's leading receiver in 2012, could miss the year with a torn Achilles tendon. Randy Moss and Ted Ginn Jr., the team's most visible speed threats last season, are gone. Mario Manningham is recovering from a knee injury at a slower rate than Kyle Williams, who also is coming off knee surgery.

New acquisition Anquan Boldin is a marvelous weapon, but he alone cannot offset so many absences.

That's where Jenkins and his huge hands come in. Ricardo Lockette and Quinton Patton are in the mix, but Jenkins realizes he came with higher expectations.

"My mindset going into this offseason was to try to play more anyway, regardless of whether Crabtree was hurt or not," Jenkins said. "It's unfortunate that he had an injury, but my mindset didn't waver at all."

He says he has a better grasp of the playbook, that he learned a lot watching Moss and continues to get assistance from Boldin. Jenkins claims offseason sessions with quarterback Colin Kaepernick have strengthened their bond.


Though these are important matters in developing individuals and the team, Jenkins also carries the burden of knowing he dropped an opportunity last year.
He bobbled it immediately and never got a grip.

If the 49ers have reservations about Jenkins, and privately they must, they are justified. How could he be even slightly surprised to learn the league of all leagues, featuring the best of the best, is demanding and complex and exacting?
 
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Rotoworld:

The Sacramento Bee currently projects Kyle Williams as the 49ers' starting "X" receiver over A.J. Jenkins.
Beat writer Matt Barrows' depth chart is based on where players lined up in offseason practices. Rookie Quinton Patton is listed as the No. 3 "Z" receiver behind Anquan Boldin and Ricardo Lockette. It would be a major blow to Jenkins' career if he couldn't beat out Williams, but we expect him to dispatch the special teamer. Patton is the bigger threat as Jenkins attempts to nail down a starting job in the absence of Michael Crabtree.

Related: Kyle Williams, Quinton Patton

Source: Sacramento Bee
 

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