Aaron Dobson (1 Viewer)

[Anarchy99]

You do realize that past performance has no bearing whatsoever on the present, right? The Red Sox hadn't won the world series in like 90 years, and then won it a couple times within a five year span.

No trend lasts forever, and the fact is Dobson has no more chance of failing because Chad Jackson did.

You get that right? Because I see a whole lot of people making the same point as you.

I also never said he will be a great WR in the NFL. I believe he can be, but obviously nobody will know until he actually plays in the NFL.

The fact that he wasn't productive in college suggests that he might not be a great football player, which would certainly have a big bearing on his pro outlook.

If you aren't a standout at the college level, why are you going to be a standout in the NFL where all of the corners and safeties are bigger and faster?

There are a handful of elite NFL receivers who weren't dominant in college, but usually they have a good excuse. Reggie Wayne played with Andre Johnson, Santana Moss, and Jeremy Shockey. Percy Harvin and Randall Cobb were utilized in a hybrid capacity. AJ Green only played three seasons and was suspended for three games in his final year.

Dobson has no excuse. He played four years in a soft league and never made an impact on the stat sheet. On the surface, he certainly fits the Bethel Johnson/Taylor Price/Chad Jackson mold as a moderately productive receiver overdrafted on the basis of his physical tools and perceived upside.

In the main, I would tend to agree that if a player wasn't highly productive in college, he probably won't be in the NFL. But there have been some good to excellent WR that have fared much better in the pros and who were not exactly college studs . . . Mike Wallace, Marques Colston, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Chad Johnson, Chris Chambers, Steve Smith, Terrell Owens, Hines Ward, Derrick Mason, Muhsin Muhammad, Laveranues Coles, Eddie Kennison, and Darrell Jackson from the more recent era.

 

[Faust]

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/blog/rob-rang/22225103/finding-the-fits-dobson-extends-the-marshall-plan-for-patriots

Excerpt:

Finding the Fits: Dobson extends the Marshall plan for Patriots

By Rob Rang | The Sports Xchange/CBSSports.com


During the next several weeks, NFLDraftScout.com will review the more intriguing picks made during the 2013 NFL draft in a series called "Finding the Fits." The goal of the series is to identify one relatively unheralded player per team who appears to be a good schematic fit and, therefore, more likely to be a surprise contributor early in his pro career.

New England Patriots Best Fit: WR Aaron Dobson, Marshall, Second Round, No. 59 overall

From an outsider's perspective, the high-powered offense orchestrated by quarterback Tom Brady for the New England Patriots probably doesn't look like it has changed much over the past several years.

From a numerical standpoint, it hasn't. In the Patriots' last two trips to the Super Bowl, they led the NFL with an average of 411.2 total yards of offense in 2007 and were second only to Drew Brees' Saints with 428 yards in 2011. This past year New England once again led the NFL with 427.9 yards per game.

The difference lies with the pass-catchers Brady targets. In 2007, he took advantage of arguably the most dangerous vertical threat the NFL has ever seen with Randy Moss to the tune of an NFL-record 23 receiving touchdowns. By 2011 (and extending through this past season), the Patriots had shifted their attention to tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez and slot receiver Wes Welker, each of whom presented their own matchup quandaries to opposing defenses.

As productive as the Patriots were in attacking the middle last year, they saw few big plays on the outside. This fact pushed Bill Belichick and Co. to pursue Pittsburgh Steelers' restricted free agent Emmanuel Sanders, one of the league's better vertical threats. After watching their offer get matched by the Steelers, the Patriots predictably looked to the draft for a big receiver with speed. Enter Dobson, a 6-foot-3, 210-pounder who clocked in at 4.42-seconds during his Pro Day and wowed scouts at the Senior Bowl with his fluidity and ball skills. While many receivers coming from “small” schools struggle when pit against the top talent in Mobile, I was impressed with Dobson's fluidity and savvy as a route-runner. Don't be surprised when Brady is, as well.

Veteran-laden teams like the Patriots rarely receive significant contributions from rookies, but Dobson offers the size, speed and soft hands to make an impact -- just as other former Marshall and Patriots' standouts (Moss, Troy Brown) have done in the past.

 

[TheFanatic]

Not sure how you're suppose to be open if you're being impeded.

Too bad for him there are guys across the LOS that are going to do nothing but impede him. That's what they get paid to do. If he can't get open because guys are impeding him, then he's not long for the NFL.

 

[Xue]

Not sure how you're suppose to be open if you're being impeded.

Too bad for him there are guys across the LOS that are going to do nothing but impede him. That's what they get paid to do. If he can't get open because guys are impeding him, then he's not long for the NFL.

Impeded illegally.

 

[MAC_32]

Seems to be a battle between logic and reason vs blind faith. Really would like a stronger case madeby dDobson fans.

 

[Sabertooth]

Seems to be a battle between logic and reason vs blind faith. Really would like a stronger case madeby dDobson fans.

Throw in a healthy dose of luck and you have Fantasy Football!

 

[MAC_32]

The bigger the window the smaller role luck plays. Week to week, tons. A month, oh yeah. Full season, sure, some. Many years... All calculated risks. Never going to hit all of them but consistent winners hit more. Need reasoning to accumulate depth and fliers.

 

[bengalbuck]

Seems to be a battle between logic and reason vs blind faith. Really would like a stronger case madeby dDobson fans.

Not sure if I am a fan necessarily, but I have grabbed him late 2nd in a couple leagues, so I do like him a decent amount.

I think the simplest case to be made is that every NFL team invests millions of dollars and thousands of man hours in scouting, analyzing. and projecting prospects for each draft. This does not lead to perfection, but for the most part, the higher a player is drafted the better his chances of NFL success. So to a certain extent, you can throw all the stuff about college numbers, etc. out the window because these NFL teams have already taken those numbers into account in a very sophisticated and in-depth manner. Further, they have access to way more advanced statistics than we do and have modeled those into their projections as well. And they have a very clear idea of what type of player best fits their system. There are always outliers with early picks failing and late picks succeeding, but over the long run, high picks outperform low picks...NFL front offices aren't idiots.

So, in short, I would point to the fact that he was one of only 6 WRs who went in the first 2 rounds. So the "case" for him is simply that the odds are you shouldn't draft too many WRs drafted behind him in the NFL draft ahead of him in your fantasy draft. The added fact that he ended up on the highest scoring offense in the NFL with a very open path to early playing time doesn't hurt either. He is somewhere in the #5-8 WR range for me personally.

 

[MAC_32]

Blind faith in new England's wr scouting at the college level is a proven mistake. Tough getting past that. As EBF laid out they seem to be repeating previous mistakes too.

 

[bengalbuck]

Blind faith in new England's wr scouting at the college level is a proven mistake. Tough getting past that. As EBF laid out they seem to be repeating previous mistakes too.

If you don't think they have spent a ton of time and money looking at their own mistakes and trying not to repeat them, then I don't know what to tell you. They have taken their past mistakes into account and used that knowledge to try to do better this time. It seems like many of their mistakes had to do with guys not understanding their complicated offense and they tried to not make the same mistake by drafting one of the smartest WRs this year. If you think you are a better judge of talent than the combined wisdom of the NE front office, their dozen scouts and coaching staff, then congrats I guess. For me, it is not blind faith in one particular front office. I simply start my rankings with where players were drafted and then adjust up and down a little bit from there based upon my opinions, situational factors, etc. In my experience, going far away from NFL draft results and thinking you are way smarter than NFL GMs is a bad strategy over the long haul and you end up with a lot of guys like Greg Salas and Roy Helu on your roster. Not saying be a robot. For example, I'm a Keenan Allen believer and bumped him up past Dobson. I also like Wheaton about equally. But if you are taking 4th rounders like Quinton Patton, etc. ahead of him, then you are making life harder on yourself and will have more misses than hits over the years. And as to the NE scouting WRs point, I think it is way overblown. It is not like they have used a lot of 1st and 2nd rounders on WRs....I believe Dobson in round 2 is the highest drafted New England WR in the last 7 or 8 years. It's not like they have drafted WRs in the 2nd round every year... Anyway, you asked for the case and I gave it to you. If you don't want to buy into it, that is your prerogative. You may end up being right. Personally, I think the risk/reward tilts into his favor at some point in the 2nd round of rookie drafts and he was my highest rated guy left at 2.11 a couple days ago and I think he is a value pick at that part of the draft.Edit to add: The NE WR drafting history is already built into his price. With his draft slot and the huge opening in the NFL's best offense, he would be a no brainer 1st round rookie pick if people weren't weary of NE's WR drafting. If you are going to pass on him in the 1st based on that history, fine, totally understand. If you are going to pass in the 2nd as well, I think it is a mistake and putting way too much weight on a flimsy piece of evidence and is a clear example of people over-thinking things.

 

[DropKick]

Blind faith in new England's wr scouting at the college level is a proven mistake. Tough getting past that. As EBF laid out they seem to be repeating previous mistakes too.

I sense some anti-Patriot bias in this... It's hard to argue with their success over the past 12+ seasons. To me, that is the ultimate measure of a front office's competence. Every team has hits and misses with personnel moves.

Here you have a 2nd round pick going to one of the more prolific offenses. With the relative talent level in this draft, I think Dobson is as good an option as most.

Opportunity/Situation is a tough one to get a handle on. I can't recall a team having such sweeping changes at the WR position. Is Edelman their only returning WR? And they have health questions at TE. They've added Amendola, Jenkins, Jones and two rookies? This could shake out in many different ways but it seems the right player could do well there.

 

[Donnybrook]

Seems to be a battle between logic and reason vs blind faith. Really would like a stronger case madeby dDobson fans.

Blind faith in new England's wr scouting at the college level is a proven mistake. Tough getting past that. As EBF laid out they seem to be repeating previous mistakes too.

Same scouts drafted Josh Boyce. Logic would say someone will be the getting the ball.

I heard the New England scouts sucks argument when they drafted Steven Ridley. People emphasived the negative aspects of Ridley's game (too slow, college stats unimpressive) and failed to mention the positives.

 

[MAC_32]

Blind faith in new England's wr scouting at the college level is a proven mistake. Tough getting past that. As EBF laid out they seem to be repeating previous mistakes too.

I sense some anti-Patriot bias in this... It's hard to argue with their success over the past 12+ seasons. To me, that is the ultimate measure of a front office's competence. Every team has hits and misses with personnel moves. Here you have a 2nd round pick going to one of the more prolific offenses. With the relative talent level in this draft, I think Dobson is as good an option as most. Opportunity/Situation is a tough one to get a handle on. I can't recall a team having such sweeping changes at the WR position. Is Edelman their only returning WR? And they have health questions at TE. They've added Amendola, Jenkins, Jones and two rookies? This could shake out in many different ways but it seems the right player could do well there.

no anti pats here, Michigan guy, want to see Brady win more titles. I just am not seeing any case other than he was a second round pick being made. For a team known for failed picks at wr and db that's not even close to enough imho. I don't know much at all about Dobson. Just his measurables and lack of production in college. I want to know more.

 

[MAC_32]

... And him being more of a developmental prospect going to a place with a history of poorly developing prospects at his position isn't helping brighten my outlook. A more pro ready prospect and I would not be as against it. I took a flier on him in a devo draft last year too, so I have a rooting interest.

Definitely need more than the he is a second round pick argument though. No reason to automatically believe the pats have learned from their mistakes before. Just hope.

 

[Biabreakable]

On the issue of the Patriots recent failures to draft impact players from the WR position. I think the Patriots front office has shown they do not really trust rookie players or their ability to develop them into impact players as much as other teams do. The Patriots are always a team that seems to be looking to trade down. Part of this is how they value rookie picks. Not as highly as other teams it seems. The Patriots seem more willing to give up draft picks for proven players who fit their system. When they do use draft picks, they tend to take offensive and defensive linemen or other defensive players moreso than they do skill position players. Well except for TE of course. But they already have 2 top level TE. Dobson might have been the closest thing to a TE for them without actually being one.

I have read a lot of stuff about Dobson because he and Patton were the 2 rookie WR I noted as being touted as good blockers from this rookie WR class. Moreso than the other top 20 or so WR I did research on anyways. So I was looking at Dobson as a player my favorite team the Vikings might be interested in because of that. I think Dobson may have been the Vikings pick in the 2nd round if the Patriots passed on him.

Here is a nice overview article about Dobson-

With the 59th pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, the New England Patriots selectedAaron Dobson, a 6'3", 210-pound wide receiver from Marshall. Dobson is tall wide out that immediately fits the X-receiver (split-end) role that the team needs. While he is raw in certain aspects of his game, he has flashed the ability to be a potential star in the NFL.

Aaron DobsonPosition: Wide Receiver
College: Marshall
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 210

OverviewAaron Dobson is tall, athletic receiver that will bring size to an otherwise short New England wide receiver crew. Overall, he has very good route running abilities, can beat the press, and is able to create separation from the defender. He has great footwork, with the ability to sell the play action by using double moves. Dobson rarely drops passes and has made some of the most stunning catches in the history of college football. Dobson was athree-year starter at Marshall and a team captain his senior season.

Dobson isn't a burner but was timed in the low 4.4-range in the 40-yard dash. Due to his absence of breakaway speed, there are some concerns that he won't be able to consistently create separation in the NFL like he can with ease in college. Dobson needs to develop his technique with his in and out routes despite running otherwise quality routes. He also needs to improve on coming back to the ball when breaking out of curl or hitch routes. Despite his size and physicality, he is a below-average run blocker. Playing in the Conference USA, he hasn't faced much stout competition.

Be sure to take notice of the text with hyperlinks, there are over 20 links to video clips to give a visual representation of Aaron Dobson.

Full Analysis AthleticismAt 6'3" and 210-pounds, Aaron Dobson has the prototypical size that you would want in an outside NFL wide receiver. He's quite a good athlete, with a unique mixture of muscle and finesse. Dobson has both speed and power, which makes him a threat in the open field. He can put his shoulder down and overpower undersized players or he can utilize his agility to try and beat linebackers.

At Marshall's Pro Day, he ran a 4.42 40-time, proving that he has very good speed for a player his size, but it also confirmed the fact he still doesn't have elite speed. In this clip, he shows off his acceleration, quickly reaching his top-speed. While he won't blow past a lot of players, he still has the ability to break a tackle and then utilize his speed to get more yards on the play.

Dobson is a superb leaper and high-points the ball very well, like in this video here. He is also able to distort his body into awkward positions to make challenging catches, such asthis one here.

Pass Catching
Aaron Dobson has the ability to catch passes that not a lot of players can come close to catching. With his 33" arms, Dobson has made some of the most incredible catches in the history of college football, including this one-handed snatch from last season. Though, his most famed highlight is

I think there is a lot to like about this guys story. His attitude as a team player, willing blocker, good memory and intelligence, all of those things add up to a strong work eithic and the ability to maximize his potential. . Combine that with Tom Brady and this seems like a good opportunity to see some early returns on investment and even possibly be useful in redraft leagues.

Seems to me that even if you didn't believe in Dobson you would still see the early opportunity he will likely get as a way to gain value by selling high once he does.

This is one of the few writers I have seen criticize Dobson for his blocking. Most only have positives to say on this aspect of his game.

 

[Faust]

from Greg Cosell on twitter:

Based on my film study really liked Pats picks WR Dobson and S Harmon. Harmon smart with excellent play recognition + awareness.

from Rotoworld:

NFL Films' Greg Cosell believes Patriots second-round pick Aaron Dobson is similar to Larry Fitzgerald in terms of size and hands.
Dobson didn't drop a single pass as a senior at Marshall. "This is going to sound crazy, but I thought that his size/hand combination, at times, reminded me of Larry Fitzgerald," Cosell said. "He’s not Larry Fitzgerald, obviously, but he’s a big kid who can move very well with really good hands. ... Overall an excellent combination of size, fluid movement and hands."


Source: Boston Globe

 

[cstu]

from Greg Cosell on twitter:

Based on my film study really liked Pats picks WR Dobson and S Harmon. Harmon smart with excellent play recognition + awareness.

from Rotoworld:

>

NFL Films' Greg Cosell believes Patriots second-round pick Aaron Dobson is similar to Larry Fitzgerald in terms of size and hands.
Dobson didn't drop a single pass as a senior at Marshall. "This is going to sound crazy, but I thought that his size/hand combination, at times, reminded me of Larry Fitzgerald," Cosell said. "He’s not Larry Fitzgerald, obviously, but he’s a big kid who can move very well with really good hands. ... Overall an excellent combination of size, fluid movement and hands."


Source: Boston Globe

Please stop this - yes he did.

 

[Faust]

from Greg Cosell on twitter:

Based on my film study really liked Pats picks WR Dobson and S Harmon. Harmon smart with excellent play recognition + awareness.

from Rotoworld:

>>>

NFL Films' Greg Cosell believes Patriots second-round pick Aaron Dobson is similar to Larry Fitzgerald in terms of size and hands.
Dobson didn't drop a single pass as a senior at Marshall. "This is going to sound crazy, but I thought that his size/hand combination, at times, reminded me of Larry Fitzgerald," Cosell said. "He’s not Larry Fitzgerald, obviously, but he’s a big kid who can move very well with really good hands. ... Overall an excellent combination of size, fluid movement and hands."


Source: Boston Globe iv>
Please stop this - yes he did.

lockquote>lockquote>

I am not trying to do this on purpose, just simply cutting & pasting from various sources that I scour during the offseason in my effort to keep the Shark Pool informed.

 

[EBF]

Larry Fitzgerald final college season:

92 catches, 1672 yards, 22 TDs

Aaron Dobson final college season:

57 catches, 679 yards, 3 TDs

So they're basically clones.

 

[Faust]

Larry Fitzgerald final college season:

92 catches, 1672 yards, 22 TDs

Aaron Dobson final college season:

57 catches, 679 yards, 3 TDs

So they're basically clones.

Oh, there is no comparison production wise. What Cosell said was:

"This is going to sound crazy, but I thought that his size/hand combination, at times, reminded me of Larry Fitzgerald," Cosell said. "He’s not Larry Fitzgerald, obviously, but he’s a big kid who can move very well with really good hands. ... Overall an excellent combination of size, fluid movement and hands."

 

[EBF]

"This is going to sound crazy, but I thought that his size/hand combination, at times, reminded me of Larry Fitzgerald," Cosell said. "He’s not Larry Fitzgerald, obviously, but he’s a big kid who can move very well with really good hands. ... Overall an excellent combination of size, fluid movement and hands."

The key passage in bold.

Cosell is better than most pundits, but hardly infallible. He compared Isaiah Pead to Jamaal Charles last year. That was bad, but comparing Dobson to Fitz is even worse.

There are lots of guys running around with good height/speed combinations, but when they can't translate those tools into production on the field it's a big red flag.

 

[ShaHBucks]

There are lots of guys running around with good height/speed combinations, but when they can't translate those tools into production on the field it's a big red flag.

For some reason when you dog Dobson is sounds like you should be consistant and say the same for Chris Harper. Harper's college performance was just as flimsy, if not worse, as Dobson. He had 1-2 really good games his whole career. Either was completly horrible but just as mediocre/unnoticeable.. Not standouts.

 

[Faust]

"This is going to sound crazy, but I thought that his size/hand combination, at times, reminded me of Larry Fitzgerald," Cosell said. "He’s not Larry Fitzgerald, obviously, but he’s a big kid who can move very well with really good hands. ... Overall an excellent combination of size, fluid movement and hands."

The key passage in bold.

Cosell is better than most pundits, but hardly infallible. He compared Isaiah Pead to Jamaal Charles last year. That was bad, but comparing Dobson to Fitz is even worse.

There are lots of guys running around with good height/speed combinations, but when they can't translate those tools into production on the field it's a big red flag.

EBF,

Very valid points and observations. I am a big fan of the work that Cosell does, but it is important to remember that he isn't infallible by a long shot, and even Cosell would admit that. Again, I don't think that Cosell was trying to say that Dobson = Fitz, just that at times Dobson reminded him of Fitz with the combination of size and good hands.

Cheers,

Faust

 

[EBF]

There are lots of guys running around with good height/speed combinations, but when they can't translate those tools into production on the field it's a big red flag.

For some reason when you dog Dobson is sounds like you should be consistant and say the same for Chris Harper. Harper's college performance was just as flimsy, if not worse, as Dobson. He had 1-2 really good games his whole career. Either was completly horrible but just as mediocre/unnoticeable.. Not standouts.

Some key differences there:

1. Harper played QB in high school and at Oregon. He is still green as a WR.

2. Marshall had a prolific passing offense. Kansas State didn't. Marshall ranked 1st in the country in passing yards. I think K-State was somewhere in the eighties. Smaller pie = less production.

3. Harper had a better final season. He had 650 receiving yards in last eight games, which is almost as many as Dobson had all season. Harper steadily improved over the last few seasons, whereas Dobson plateaued at mediocrity.

Every player is different and sometimes there are unique circumstances that adjust the way you interpret the numbers. Harper has a good excuse for his modest college career. Dobson really doesn't. He played four seasons on a team that passed plenty and he still never made a dent statistically.

In the most optimistic cases I've seen Dobson compared to guys like Moss and Fitz. That seems very far-fetched to me. Those guys destroyed everything in their path as college athletes. When you have a special talent like that, you expect them to stick out like a sore thumb at the NCAA level. Dobson was just an anonymous college player. Very similar to Bethel Johnson and Taylor Price in that regard. The Pats seem to overvalue height/weight/speed numbers in their WR draft picks in favor of getting accomplished players. It hasn't worked for them in the past and I don't think Dobson will justify his draft slot either.

 

[cstu]

There are lots of guys running around with good height/speed combinations, but when they can't translate those tools into production on the field it's a big red flag.

For some reason when you dog Dobson is sounds like you should be consistant and say the same for Chris Harper. Harper's college performance was just as flimsy, if not worse, as Dobson. He had 1-2 really good games his whole career. Either was completly horrible but just as mediocre/unnoticeable.. Not standouts.

The main difference I see is that Dobson had a weak senior year and was over-performed by two teammates while Harper led his team the past two years. Also, the fact that he only caught 3 of the team's 39 TD's last year makes me question how good of a red zone target he really is. Harper didn't caught many TD's but his team didn't throw many either.

 

[cstu]

from Greg Cosell on twitter:

Based on my film study really liked Pats picks WR Dobson and S Harmon. Harmon smart with excellent play recognition + awareness.

from Rotoworld:

>>>

NFL Films' Greg Cosell believes Patriots second-round pick Aaron Dobson is similar to Larry Fitzgerald in terms of size and hands.
Dobson didn't drop a single pass as a senior at Marshall. "This is going to sound crazy, but I thought that his size/hand combination, at times, reminded me of Larry Fitzgerald," Cosell said. "He’s not Larry Fitzgerald, obviously, but he’s a big kid who can move very well with really good hands. ... Overall an excellent combination of size, fluid movement and hands."

Source: Boston Globe iv>
Please stop this - yes he did.

I am not trying to do this on purpose, just simply cutting & pasting from various sources that I scour during the offseason in my effort to keep the Shark Pool informed.

Sorry Faust, that wasn't directed to you - it was towards everyone (like Cosell) blindly repeating some chart they saw.

 

[Faust]

There are lots of guys running around with good height/speed combinations, but when they can't translate those tools into production on the field it's a big red flag.

For some reason when you dog Dobson is sounds like you should be consistant and say the same for Chris Harper. Harper's college performance was just as flimsy, if not worse, as Dobson. He had 1-2 really good games his whole career. Either was completly horrible but just as mediocre/unnoticeable.. Not standouts.

Some key differences there:

1. Harper played QB in high school and at Oregon. He is still green as a WR.

2. Marshall had a prolific passing offense. Kansas State didn't. Marshall ranked 1st in the country in passing yards. I think K-State was somewhere in the eighties. Smaller pie = less production.

3. Harper had a better final season. He had 650 receiving yards in last eight games, which is almost as many as Dobson had all season. Harper steadily improved over the last few seasons, whereas Dobson plateaued at mediocrity.

Every player is different and sometimes there are unique circumstances that adjust the way you interpret the numbers. Harper has a good excuse for his modest college career. Dobson really doesn't. He played four seasons on a team that passed plenty and he still never made a dent statistically.

In the most optimistic cases I've seen Dobson compared to guys like Moss and Fitz. That seems very far-fetched to me. Those guys destroyed everything in their path as college athletes. When you have a special talent like that, you expect them to stick out like a sore thumb at the NCAA level. Dobson was just an anonymous college player. Very similar to Bethel Johnson and Taylor Price in that regard. The Pats seem to overvalue height/weight/speed numbers in their WR draft picks in favor of getting accomplished players. It hasn't worked for them in the past and I don't think Dobson will justify his draft slot either.

 

[ShaHBucks]

There are lots of guys running around with good height/speed combinations, but when they can't translate those tools into production on the field it's a big red flag.

For some reason when you dog Dobson is sounds like you should be consistant and say the same for Chris Harper. Harper's college performance was just as flimsy, if not worse, as Dobson. He had 1-2 really good games his whole career. Either was completly horrible but just as mediocre/unnoticeable.. Not standouts.

Some key differences there: 1. Harper played QB in high school and at Oregon. He is still green as a WR.2. Marshall had a prolific passing offense. Kansas State didn't. Marshall ranked 1st in the country in passing yards. I think K-State was somewhere in the eighties. Smaller pie = less production.3. Harper had a better final season. He had 650 receiving yards in last eight games, which is almost as many as Dobson had all season. Harper steadily improved over the last few seasons, whereas Dobson plateaued at mediocrity. Every player is different and sometimes there are unique circumstances that adjust the way you interpret the numbers. Harper has a good excuse for his modest college career. Dobson really doesn't. He played four seasons on a team that passed plenty and he still never made a dent statistically. In the most optimistic cases I've seen Dobson compared to guys like Moss and Fitz. That seems very far-fetched to me. Those guys destroyed everything in their path as college athletes. When you have a special talent like that, you expect them to stick out like a sore thumb at the NCAA level. Dobson was just an anonymous college player. Very similar to Bethel Johnson and Taylor Price in that regard. The Pats seem to overvalue height/weight/speed numbers in their WR draft picks in favor of getting accomplished players. It hasn't worked for them in the past and I don't think Dobson will justify his draft slot either.

We can clearly dismiss the superstar comparisons/potential for Dobson, but he is a NFL worthy reciever. Maybe a 3rd-4th guy on the depth chart. If you want to compare peaks Dobson scored 12 of the teams 22 TD's in 2011. That's more dominate than anyhing Haper has shown. Harper last few games were against bad defenses for the most part. You're really reaching because even those games were just ok.

 

[Sabertooth]

He was selected over Keenan Allen in a recent rookie draft I was . I was shocked. He is simply one of many guys vying to be the 4th receiving option on a team with ann aging QB

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

He had 0 drops his senior year? Good size and speed and an accurate qb. The other receivers aren't special. He could be a good last round gamble.

 

[Caveman_Nick]

He was selected over Keenan Allen in a recent rookie draft I was . I was shocked. He is simply one of many guys vying to be the 4th receiving option on a team with ann aging QB

Whereas Keenan Allen is vying to be the 4th option in a completely mundane passing offense run by a much lesser QB.

 

[cstu]

He was selected over Keenan Allen in a recent rookie draft I was . I was shocked. He is simply one of many guys vying to be the 4th receiving option on a team with ann aging QB

Whereas Keenan Allen is vying to be the 4th option in a completely mundane passing offense run by a much lesser QB.

4th option? If Allen is any good he could easily be the team's #1 target.

 

[Caveman_Nick]

Sure. But he's likely to be the team's 4th option in terms of targets behind Gates, Floyd and Brown, and maybe their 5th option behind Woodhead. They were the 24th ranked passing team last year in terms of yardage and the Patriots were 4th.

If you are saying that he has a better chance to eat a bigger percentage of the available Targets then I might agree. There is less in front of him in terms of talent, but then look at the injury history of Gronk, Hernandez and Amendola. Also remember that the Patriots attempted 641 passes while the Chargers only attempted 528. That's 113 more targets to go around amongst the options in NE.

 

[Caveman_Nick]

I just want to add: I think people are forgetting how really rare it is for a Rookie WR to bust out. You can usually point to 1 in a year that will do well, sometimes 2.

Last year not one player cracked the top 20 and one cracked the top 25, and that player was unexpected in T.Y. Hilton.

In 2011 you had an abberation in AJ Green, Julio Jones and Torrey Smith (which I think clouds people's judgement)

In 2010 you had Mike Williams.

In 2009 you had Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks and Austin Collie crack the top 20, but none in the top 20

The chances of any of these WRs being great out of the chute are miniscule.

So my point here was that anyone looking at Dobson being selected over Allen in terms of what they might do this year is looking at it all kinda backwards. You should be looking 3 years down the line and towards what a receiver might accomplish in the scheme he's been drafted into in that timeframe. The #1 in SD might be worth less than the #2 in NE.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

For all the folks piling on to the Pat's WR evaluations I have a series of 1st round WR selections for you:

Charles Rogers - megabust

Roy Williams - bust

Mike William - megabust

then

Calvin Johnson

hope everybody passed on Johnson because Detroit doesn't know what they are doing.

Is Dobson in Johnson's universe as a prospect? Of course not. But every player/situation should be addressed individually. You can factor in a lack of success in the past, but it's far from the only factor. PLUS, a good chunk of the reason some of their previous experiments failed is that the guys just didn't get what the Patriots were trying to do on a mental level. Belichick has specifically mentioned how smart Dobson is several times. Is it it possible that the team has actually learned from previous mistakes and picked up a guy they think will actually catch on?

Then you mention all of the excuses other top receivers had for less than stellar college numbers. How bout injury? Doesn't that count? Before his injury in November, he was on a 900 yard season pace. Patterson put up 778 in 12 games, not too many folks complaining about that. Woods put up 846. About 600 in the first 8 games really isn't too bad. Yet I have yet to hear any mention that he was completely out of two games and barely there for two more.

I have gone out and gotten the guy in every league I could. Because situation DOES matter, and a fairly clear path to being Tom Brady's #1 WR is about as good as you can get. Early-mid 2nd in most leagues will do it, why not?

 

[EBF]

fairly clear path to being Tom Brady's #1 WR is about as good as you can get. Early-mid 2nd in most leagues will do it, why not?

A year ago Brian Quick had a clear path to become the #1 WR in St. Louis and Isaiah Pead was the clear favorite to replace Steven Jackson.

You know what they say about the best laid plans...

FF isn't quite as linear and predictable as we sometimes make it out to be. A team can draft a guy with a certain role in mind, but he still needs to actually live up to their expectations and deliver on his promise. That doesn't always happen. Nevermind the fact that new players can enter the mix and complicate things. If Boyce outplays Dobson next season, will Dobson still have a clear path to being Tom Brady's #1 WR? What if the Patriots draft Marqise Lee or Sammy Watkins next year?

Regardless of how good a situation might look, the player still has to perform. I don't have a great deal of faith in Dobson to do that. I'm not actually THAT down on him. Certainly not as much so as you might think reading my constant negative posts. However, I think there's a very high probability of him being a flop relative to his draft slot and the expectations of people looking for the next great Patriots pass catcher.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

fairly clear path to being Tom Brady's #1 WR is about as good as you can get. Early-mid 2nd in most leagues will do it, why not?

A year ago Brian Quick had a clear path to become the #1 WR in St. Louis and Isaiah Pead was the clear favorite to replace Steven Jackson. You know what they say about the best laid plans... FF isn't quite as linear and predictable as we sometimes make it out to be. A team can draft a guy with a certain role in mind, but he still needs to actually live up to their expectations and deliver on his promise. That doesn't always happen. Nevermind the fact that new players can enter the mix and complicate things. If Boyce outplays Dobson next season, will Dobson still have a clear path to being Tom Brady's #1 WR? What if the Patriots draft Marqise Lee or Sammy Watkins next year? Regardless of how good a situation might look, the player still has to perform. I don't have a great deal of faith in Dobson to do that. I'm not actually THAT down on him. Certainly not as much so as you might think reading my constant negative posts. However, I think there's a very high probability of him being a flop relative to his draft slot and the expectations of people looking for the next great Patriots pass catcher.

Bradford isn't Brady, and St Louis isn't NE. Yeah, the opportunity was there for Quick and it didn't materialize. That definitely happens. Of course Dobson could be outplayed like Quick was outplayed by Givens. But generally, the lower picks are lower picks for a reason. There are always exceptions, but it doesn't make sense to factor them heavily. I obviously agree that he has to perform, or it is all moot. But with regard to flopping and draft slot, the upside FAR outstrips the risk where he is currently going. If things go well, he could be a top 10 (maybe even top 5) guy very quickly. How many of the guys going in front of him can you say that about? How many of the guys going behind him? You talk about everyone loving him and his situation, but that doesn't reflect where he is actually being taken most of the time. If we were arguing about him being #2 or #3 off the board, I could see calling for the breaks to be put on despite the fact this his measurables are as good as most/all and his situation is better than all of his competition. I think you could honestly make a case for it, but it would also make sense to ask "Is he really THAT good to be taken here?" But that's not where we are.

 

[cstu]

I just want to add: I think people are forgetting how really rare it is for a Rookie WR to bust out. You can usually point to 1 in a year that will do well, sometimes 2. Last year not one player cracked the top 20 and one cracked the top 25, and that player was unexpected in T.Y. Hilton.In 2011 you had an abberation in AJ Green, Julio Jones and Torrey Smith (which I think clouds people's judgement)In 2010 you had Mike Williams.In 2009 you had Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks and Austin Collie crack the top 20, but none in the top 20 The chances of any of these WRs being great out of the chute are miniscule. So my point here was that anyone looking at Dobson being selected over Allen in terms of what they might do this year is looking at it all kinda backwards. You should be looking 3 years down the line and towards what a receiver might accomplish in the scheme he's been drafted into in that timeframe. The #1 in SD might be worth less than the #2 in NE.

There's a decent chance that in 3 years Dobson doesn't have Brady throwing the ball.

 

[Caveman_Nick]

I just want to add: I think people are forgetting how really rare it is for a Rookie WR to bust out. You can usually point to 1 in a year that will do well, sometimes 2. Last year not one player cracked the top 20 and one cracked the top 25, and that player was unexpected in T.Y. Hilton.In 2011 you had an abberation in AJ Green, Julio Jones and Torrey Smith (which I think clouds people's judgement)In 2010 you had Mike Williams.In 2009 you had Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks and Austin Collie crack the top 20, but none in the top 20 The chances of any of these WRs being great out of the chute are miniscule. So my point here was that anyone looking at Dobson being selected over Allen in terms of what they might do this year is looking at it all kinda backwards. You should be looking 3 years down the line and towards what a receiver might accomplish in the scheme he's been drafted into in that timeframe. The #1 in SD might be worth less than the #2 in NE.

There's a decent chance that in 3 years Dobson doesn't have Brady throwing the ball.

You seem to be trying to turn what I am saying on it's ear by ignoring the post I was originally responding to, which was incredulity at Dobson being drafted over K Allen because of his situation right now and ability to perform this year.The argument you are making is entirely different and very plausible. Phillip Rivers could also not be starting in SD in 3 years. The offensive system in NE is still significantly more pass happy than the one in SD, and both receivers currently slot in at best as the #4. That could change, and then you have to ask where the equivalency in slotting is. Dobson could be 4th in targets while Allen is 3rd oin their respective teams and Dobson could still be seeing more come his way.In the end all I am saying is that Keenan Allen's situation does not exactly scream productivity, now or in the future. The players are IMO roughly equivalent in terms of opportunity and obstacles to success.

 

[Sabertooth]

He was selected over Keenan Allen in a recent rookie draft I was . I was shocked. He is simply one of many guys vying to be the 4th receiving option on a team with ann aging QB

Whereas Keenan Allen is vying to be the 4th option in a completely mundane passing offense run by a much lesser QB.

he is vying to be #2.

 

[Sabertooth]

I just want to add: I think people are forgetting how really rare it is for a Rookie WR to bust out. You can usually point to 1 in a year that will do well, sometimes 2. Last year not one player cracked the top 20 and one cracked the top 25, and that player was unexpected in T.Y. Hilton.In 2011 you had an abberation in AJ Green, Julio Jones and Torrey Smith (which I think clouds people's judgement)In 2010 you had Mike Williams.In 2009 you had Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks and Austin Collie crack the top 20, but none in the top 20 The chances of any of these WRs being great out of the chute are miniscule. So my point here was that anyone looking at Dobson being selected over Allen in terms of what they might do this year is looking at it all kinda backwards. You should be looking 3 years down the line and towards what a receiver might accomplish in the scheme he's been drafted into in that timeframe. The #1 in SD might be worth less than the #2 in NE.

There's a decent chance that in 3 years Dobson doesn't have Brady throwing the ball.

You seem to be trying to turn what I am saying on it's ear by ignoring the post I was originally responding to, which was incredulity at Dobson being drafted over K Allen because of his situation right now and ability to perform this year.The argument you are making is entirely different and very plausible. Phillip Rivers could also not be starting in SD in 3 years. The offensive system in NE is still significantly more pass happy than the one in SD, and both receivers currently slot in at best as the #4. That could change, and then you have to ask where the equivalency in slotting is. Dobson could be 4th in targets while Allen is 3rd oin their respective teams and Dobson could still be seeing more come his way.In the end all I am saying is that Keenan Allen's situation does not exactly scream productivity, now or in the future. The players are IMO roughly equivalent in terms of opportunity and obstacles to success.

I think Allen is both more talented and in a better situation.

 

[cstu]

I just want to add: I think people are forgetting how really rare it is for a Rookie WR to bust out. You can usually point to 1 in a year that will do well, sometimes 2. Last year not one player cracked the top 20 and one cracked the top 25, and that player was unexpected in T.Y. Hilton.In 2011 you had an abberation in AJ Green, Julio Jones and Torrey Smith (which I think clouds people's judgement)In 2010 you had Mike Williams.In 2009 you had Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks and Austin Collie crack the top 20, but none in the top 20 The chances of any of these WRs being great out of the chute are miniscule. So my point here was that anyone looking at Dobson being selected over Allen in terms of what they might do this year is looking at it all kinda backwards. You should be looking 3 years down the line and towards what a receiver might accomplish in the scheme he's been drafted into in that timeframe. The #1 in SD might be worth less than the #2 in NE.

There's a decent chance that in 3 years Dobson doesn't have Brady throwing the ball.

You seem to be trying to turn what I am saying on it's ear by ignoring the post I was originally responding to, which was incredulity at Dobson being drafted over K Allen because of his situation right now and ability to perform this year.The argument you are making is entirely different and very plausible. Phillip Rivers could also not be starting in SD in 3 years. The offensive system in NE is still significantly more pass happy than the one in SD, and both receivers currently slot in at best as the #4. That could change, and then you have to ask where the equivalency in slotting is. Dobson could be 4th in targets while Allen is 3rd oin their respective teams and Dobson could still be seeing more come his way.In the end all I am saying is that Keenan Allen's situation does not exactly scream productivity, now or in the future. The players are IMO roughly equivalent in terms of opportunity and obstacles to success.

I'm viewing it from the long-term dynasty angle and I don't see Dobson being in a better situation. Allen has an aging Gates and Floyd and oft-injured DX to contend with. In a year there's a very decent chance none of them are Chargers. That leaves him with Vincent Brown and Ladarius Green to contend with - neither of which has proven anything yet either.

I do think Dobson has a better shot at production this year since there's opportunity to take over Lloyd's role, but long-term (post-Brady) I think there are a lot of question marks about that offense.

 

[Caveman_Nick]

He was selected over Keenan Allen in a recent rookie draft I was . I was shocked. He is simply one of many guys vying to be the 4th receiving option on a team with ann aging QB

Whereas Keenan Allen is vying to be the 4th option in a completely mundane passing offense run by a much lesser QB.

he is vying to be #2.

You say that like being the #2 WR on the Chargers is some guarantee of fantasy production. And if you want to look at things like that, Dobson is vying to be the #1 flanker, seeing as Amendola is likely to be mostly a slot guy.

It's about targets, opportunity with those targets and productivity. I just don't see such an edge for Allen where one could be 'shocked' to see Dobson get picked first.

 

[Sabertooth]

#2 target behind Gates

 

[Biabreakable]

I have Keenan Allen ranked ahead of Dobson but I consider them a similar tier. I am worried about Allens PCL still being a problem. Brady is better than Rivers but Allen was almost universally ranked as a better prospect than Dobson pre draft. The NFL draft did not agree. If Allen does return to that expected level of ability I think he is a more talented player and has a better opportunity than Dobson has. If I was not worried about the PCL Allen would be a tier ahead of Dobson.

For PPR Allen has more opportunity to be a high target/volume receiver than Dobson has. In standard leagues I consider them to be closer than they will be in PPR.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

#2 target behind Gates

Who's going to be the guy:

6'5", 34 3/4" arms, 10" hands4.4 speed41.5" vert4.1 short shuttlebest college season, 1781 yards (Div 1)

lead the entire NFL in yards per target last year

OR

The magical mystical 4.7 runnin' 3rd round pick

 

[cstu]

#2 target behind Gates

Who's going to be the guy:

6'5", 34 3/4" arms, 10" hands4.4 speed41.5" vert4.1 short shuttlebest college season, 1781 yards (Div 1)

lead the entire NFL in yards per target last year

OR

The magical mystical 4.7 runnin' 3rd round pick

You talking about the guy who no one even wanted to bother stealing away at $1.3M?

 

[Holy Schneikes]

#2 target behind Gates

Who's going to be the guy:

6'5", 34 3/4" arms, 10" hands

4.4 speed

41.5" vert

4.1 short shuttle

best college season, 1781 yards (Div 1)

lead the entire NFL in yards per target last year

OR

The magical mystical 4.7 runnin' 3rd round pick

You talking about the guy who no one even wanted to bother stealing away at $1.3M?

And the guy everybody in the NFL passed on at least twice. We are talking the league's general impression of a guy right?

The reason the league was scared off is the knee (obviously), but there was also the fact that teams knew San Diego could match. So nobody knew for sure WHAT would actually have gotten him. Why wast time if you don't think a deal will stick. Still, it's a valid point - I was surprised no one took a shot.

But my point is that Allen MIGHT be in the running for a starting gig at some point, but it's no gimme next year. DX is a heck of a receiver as long as he's healthy. As crazy as it sounds, he may be one of the best in the NFL. How long will it last? Who knows. But unless/until there is a setback, I'm not sure DX can't do everything Allen can do and then some.

 

[cstu]

#2 target behind Gates

Who's going to be the guy:6'5", 34 3/4" arms, 10" hands

4.4 speed

41.5" vert

4.1 short shuttle

best college season, 1781 yards (Div 1)

lead the entire NFL in yards per target last year

OR

The magical mystical 4.7 runnin' 3rd round pick

You talking about the guy who no one even wanted to bother stealing away at $1.3M?

And the guy everybody in the NFL passed on at least twice. We are talking the league's general impression of a guy right?

You know what I'm saying though. I like DX but the general consensus around the NFL is that his knees won't hold up for even a season. If they do and he has a great year he's going to be a free agent and it's very unlikely that the Chargers will re-sign him. I put the odds of him being a Charger in 2014 around 1% and that's only because I think he likes the weather.

 

[Touchdown There]

Dobson is my new must-get guy.