Jackstraw
Footballguy
.....Why?Joe Bryant said:Thanks. I do have more faith in the other Republicans. And of course there are a ton, likely a majority of Democrats in the House and Senate. Plus the people.
.....Why?Joe Bryant said:Thanks. I do have more faith in the other Republicans. And of course there are a ton, likely a majority of Democrats in the House and Senate. Plus the people.
I don't fully buy into some of this . . .[scooter] said:I voted 50-59. I think it's pretty close to a tossup at this point, but it's not because of Hunter Biden or Joe's comments on oil or due to any other verbal gaffe by Biden.
I think it's a tossup for 4 reasons:
1. undecided voters and wavering Republicans tend to "come home" to the incumbent.
2. the installation of Amy Coney Barrett will energize the base and reinforce the most important campaign promise that Trump managed to keep.
3. ground game. The rallies are bad for the country, but they are good for Trump's chances.
4. vote by mail. I don't think the polls are properly accounting for the higher number of Democrat voters whose votes will be rejected.
Anyway, I think Trump wins Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia, and gets 1-2 out of PA/MI/WI/MN, and has a 50/50 shot at Arizona.
What's the right thing? In the confirmation process the Republicans followed the Constitution. The Senate provides advice and consent. They aren't required to confirm a nominee. Now Democrats want to expand the Court, add States they think will be Democrat seats, abolish the electoral college all for the sake of power.Lehigh98 said:You have alot more faith in republicans doing the right thing than I do. Not sure why you think that way when all they've done is protect the way their minority can hold power. You don't think they're capable of election shenanigans? His entire life Trump sues if he doesn't get his way. His staff has already been filing lawsuits across the country suppressing voter turnout in unfavorable areas. Hell, he's got White House council defending him in a rape case.
And who has stood up against him? Democrats can try but what does it matter if they don't hold a majority to oppose, Trump just accuses them of meddling to justify his means. Republicans stay quiet and let him do it so they can try and hold onto power. I think you're looking at something similar to 2000 but on a larger scale where Trump sues over results in several locations until he gets his way or appeals all the way up to his Supreme Court.
I think the only way Trump gets knocked out of office is a huge margin of victory for Biden or if this strategy to bring into question the election results is more for him to save face in a loss he actually (consciously/subconsciously) desires so he doesn't have to do the job for another four years.
What's the right thing? They'd follow the Constitution.. Now Democrats want to expand the Court, add States they think will be Democrat seats
Yeah - I don't think losing PA necessarily means Biden loses MI. I think MN and WI are almost done deals at this point.[scooter] said:If Trump gets FL, then it's a sign that he's probably also getting GA and maybe even NC -- which closes one of Biden's paths.
If Trump gets PA, then it's a sign that he's probably also getting at least one out of MI/WI/MN -- which also closes a path for Biden.
If Trump gets both, then Biden can still win, but he'll have to hold the blue wall in MI/WI/MN or he'll have to pick off GA or NC (in addition to holding AZ).
edit: 538's scenario generator gives the following chances:
Trump wins PA, Biden wins FL: 89% Biden
Biden wins PA, Trump wins FL: 91% Biden
Trump wins both: 89% Trump
Biden wins both: 99% Biden
I've seen some of that too and not my style but whatever. Reminds me of when the perennially bad local sports club, like the Isotopes, are having a good year and all of a sudden someone who wasn't paying attention is superfan.tuffnutt said:I was 70% last week... I am moving down to 60% this week. Like @Jayrod I live in Trump Country. The kind of people that drive around with Trump flags flying in Pickup truck beds. I have already put in for a personal day next Wednesday. Tuesday is going to be a LOOOOOONNNGGG night
I haven't read or heard anyone with this opinion but I think you're probably right. Thanks for posting.Prinefan said:Big win for Biden. Won't be close (thank God). Nobody's mentioning this but...
In 2016 I believe most (if not all) of Trumpers voted. They still didn't win the popular vote. We're shattering records with voter turnout and I don't believe the uptick is Trumpers coming out of the woodwork. I believe it's Democrats who have seen enough of Trump and are scared of of the damage another 4 years of this would bring. Go Blue!
We can expect any opinion about corruption to be along party lines per usual, as each side thinks the other is morally corrupt. I think almost all career politicians are relatively useless at best or corrupt at worst and wish Congress had term limits and wish that corporate lobbying was illegal.Joe Bryant said:Please be clear. Do you think the Supreme Court is corrupted?
Although to be fair, Isotopes is an all time great team name. I'd jump on that bandwagon too.I've seen some of that too and not my style but whatever. Reminds me of when the perennially bad local sports club, like the Isotopes, are having a good year and all of a sudden someone who wasn't paying attention is superfan.
Please keep it on topic. Thanks. This can be a good thread.AndrewClark said:Why was my post deleted? It wasn't trolling or whining?
I can't imagine this being a significant factor.I'm wondering if there's a lot of people that were planning on voting for Trump soley because of the SOCTUS seat will cast for Biden now since they got they already got what they wanted?
Yeah, I don't really know if that'll change people's motivations. Good question though.I'm wondering if there's a lot of people that were planning on voting for Trump soley because of the SOCTUS seat will cast for Biden now since they got they already got what they wanted?
You'd have to follow the quotes back. In this context, "the right thing" is not going along with Trump's scheme to try to steal the election if things don't go his way.What's the right thing? In the confirmation process the Republicans followed the Constitution. The Senate provides advice and consent. They aren't required to confirm a nominee. Now Democrats want to expand the Court, add States they think will be Democrat seats, abolish the electoral college all for the sake of power.
That might end up happening, but I think it's been reported on so much that it's actually overrated. Like a draft guy being so hyped as underrated he becomes over valued. If you take RCP's electoral map, Biden has a 232-125 lead in states that are basically uncontested at this point. I think the only quibble anyone might have is that they have MI to Biden in the easy victory column. 538 gives Biden a 95% chance of a win, so I'm comfortable including it.AndrewClark said:@Joe Bryant and everyone here... you know what does suck? That this is the first time since 2000 where I feel like no one will have a clue who "won" based on election night TV coverage. That is the scary part to me.
Great. As McConnell said last night “we had the power so we used it”.What's the right thing? In the confirmation process the Republicans followed the Constitution. The Senate provides advice and consent. They aren't required to confirm a nominee. Now Democrats want to expand the Court, add States they think will be Democrat seats, abolish the electoral college all for the sake of power.
Is this illegal? Is this unconstitutional? Has it ever been done before?What's the right thing? In the confirmation process the Republicans followed the Constitution. The Senate provides advice and consent. They aren't required to confirm a nominee. Now Democrats want to expand the Court, add States they think will be Democrat seats, abolish the electoral college all for the sake of power.
That thought crossed my mind as well.I'm wondering if there's a lot of people that were planning on voting for Trump soley because of the SOCTUS seat will cast for Biden now since they got they already got what they wanted?
In all fairness, PR and DC have been floated as possible states for a long time. While you are correct that these might vote Democrat, it’s not like they’re looking at those because they’re democrat leaning and ignoring a republican area for statehood. Sure, if they were going to vote red maybe they aren’t as motivated to do this, but in the argument for statehood, the power structure of the current parties in power should have absolutely zero bearing. Giving PR a voice and representation in Washington should be debated on the merits of that idea. If it’s the right thing to do, who they might side with on issues should not be a consideration at all.What's the right thing? In the confirmation process the Republicans followed the Constitution. The Senate provides advice and consent. They aren't required to confirm a nominee. Now Democrats want to expand the Court, add States they think will be Democrat seats, abolish the electoral college all for the sake of power.
Just out of curiosity - which of these states to you think stay with Trump - IA, WI, MI, NC, AZ, PA, FLI think Trump takes this easier than anyone thinks. Just a gut feeling.
When your candidate has bent over backwards to avoid taking a position on court packing, you can't very well argue that that candidate's victory says anything about the public's appetite for court-packing. I mean, I guess you can try, but we can all see that for what it is.Is this illegal? Is this unconstitutional? Has it ever been done before?
The American people will speak next Tuesday on whether or not they want this to happen.
It is legal, constitutional, and has happened before. That's why Marco Rubio introduced a constitutional amendment that would prevent it. Congress passed the current legislation setting the number at 9 in 1869. Congress made the law; congress can change the law.Is this illegal? Is this unconstitutional? Has it ever been done before?
The American people will speak next Tuesday on whether or not they want this to happen.
IA, AZ and FLJust out of curiosity - which of these states to you think stay with Trump - IA, WI, MI, NC, AZ, PA, FL
Oh dear.Lots of -- me for example -- are voting for Biden precisely because we want to see a return to norms.
Going to make my 3 dozen votes count in AZ too. Vote early, vote often.I tend to agree with IA, FL - I think Biden takes AZ. Thanks to our boy @McBokonon
The trick is to drive around and vote from as many different zip codes as possible. Got another busy weekend in front of me.Going to make my 3 dozen votes count in AZ too. Vote early, vote often.
Or they could show up and vote in person (or drop their ballot off in person). Also, it is estimated that mail in ballots so far have been a large majority from Democrats, so what makes the Democrats the likely party to put off getting them in on time? They already HAVE gotten them in on time.I voted 50-59%. I am thinking many mail in ballots will be rejected from many undecided and Democrats who put off getting them in on time. Polls don't mean squat if you don't get your vote cast. Many states including Minnesota today will not be counting ballots received after Nov 3rd. How can these people be so lazy as to put it off so late or not take their vote to a drop box?
I would answer this but Door Dash just arrived with my two McDonald's double QP value meals.I voted 50-59%. I am thinking many mail in ballots will be rejected from many undecided and Democrats who put off getting them in on time. Polls don't mean squat if you don't get your vote cast. Many states including Minnesota today will not be counting ballots received after Nov 3rd. How can these people be so lazy as to put it off so late or not take their vote to a drop box?
Except the internet is loaded with Russian trolls.If i watch media Biden gets it. If i observe the pulse on the ground and comment sections on the internet, Trump gets it.
Story ran just yesterday Oct 28Or they could show up and vote in person (or drop their ballot off in person). Also, it is estimated that mail in ballots so far have been a large majority from Democrats, so what makes the Democrats the likely party to put off getting them in on time? They already HAVE gotten them in on time.
well now I’m worriedIf i watch media Biden gets it. If i observe the pulse on the ground and comment sections on the internet, Trump gets it.
I am not disputing that there are a lot of mail in ballots that have not been received yet, but that doesn't mean they won't show up, they won't be hand delivered, or the outstanding ballots are predominantly from Democrats.
I haven't sent my mail ballot in because I'm voting in person. In CA (not a key state) they sent everyone a mail in ballot (without having to request it). I don't know if other states did similar. If so, this metric might not mean much.
Same here....way more Trump signs and flags in Mn than in 2016 and Hillary only won by 1.5%This feels eerily similar to 2016. I feel confident about Biden leading in the polls but everywhere around me is obnoxious Trump flags. I'm not holding my breath.