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RB Aaron Jones, MIN (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Interseptopus
- Start date
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well you did say that a smaller RB requires special traits to be successful. So that statement does suggest that you are doing some sort of quantitative analysis. You need to quantify smaller at least, which you did by stating a RB under 220lbs.
The rebuttals you have received are showing that this analysis does not bear fruit and can easily be disproven. Which contradicts your claim that it has been successful for you in the past.
I think that is something you could learn from and that is my intent as far as discussing this. That is entirely up to you though if you would like to improve your evaluation process, or continue to use faith in your evaluations that clearly have some truck size holes in them.
Football Jones
Footballguy
BTW, even at RB, where it's typically the easiest position to make an impact early in your career, players can improve tremendously.
I'm sure there are plenty of examples, but two that come to mind are Le'Veon Bell & LaDainian Tomlinson. Both had mediocre rookie seasons.
I believe Williams' game definitely translates, but something isn't clicking. I think he just needs to loosen up & quit playing so tight, but we'll see what happens. Some guys never get it.
I'm sure there are plenty of examples, but two that come to mind are Le'Veon Bell & LaDainian Tomlinson. Both had mediocre rookie seasons.
I believe Williams' game definitely translates, but something isn't clicking. I think he just needs to loosen up & quit playing so tight, but we'll see what happens. Some guys never get it.
Football Jones
Footballguy
What can be disproven in general? Take a look at last year's RB rankings in regards to smaller RBs. You're also making too much of 220. It's not 220 or bust.
If I had truck size holes in my evaluations, it wouldn't bare the fruit it has. Maybe there's something you're not understanding, but then again, as I've mentioned numerous times, it's mostly subjective.
I'm always learning. That's not the issue. I think this looks a lot more mysterious than it actually is. Like I said, it's not rocket science. I'm simply discussing my success in vetting out smaller RBs who don't have an extraordinary package of specific traits. I'm trying the best I can to give a good overview because it's not a system, per sey.
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Football Jones
Footballguy
What I'm getting at is this isn't a scientific approach. Far from it.
Lots of subjective scouting based on some simple principles.
Lots of subjective scouting based on some simple principles.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Your statement that a smaller RB require special traits to become a featured RB has been proven false. Many times over during this discussion and prior to this discussion.
The only way you might see this as true through your subjective analysis is through the use of selective memory.
I asked you to define the term smaller. You chose to define this as less than 220lbs then moved the bar more recently to 2010 lbs (this fits the 4lbs difference between Willaims and Jones I suppose.)
I would agree that there may be something I am not understanding about your process. That is why I asked.
When someone brags about their process being very successful I would like them to support this claim with some sort of evidence, preferably evidence that can be tested and verified for its validity. If found valid then anyone could apply that process.
If it is just subjective, thats fine, we all have subjective opinions about things. Those opinions can also be very inaccurate. Your statements make me wonder if you knew Aaron Jones was only 4lbs lighter than Jamaal Williams. That might be new information for you. Based on watching the players I think Williams looks like a bigger RB than he tested. His play style fits that of a larger RB.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Which you can’t even explain to Bia who scouts players way more extensively than 98% of this board. So you do not have a qualitative argument, you do not have a quantitative argument and you’ve choosen to die on the hill of a player whose BMI makes Chris Thompson look like Jerome Bettis.
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Football Jones
Footballguy
Smaller RBs do require specific traits to be effective in today's NFL. At this point, it's just common sense. I used 210 as an example of the alarmingly low number of smaller RBs who were in the top 20 of PPR RBs last year. A RB under 210 is definitely a smaller RB. I think we could agree on that. I use 220 as more or less a base for taking a more critical look at certain traits.
It had nothing to do with Jones vs. Williams (yes, I know Williams is just 4 pounds heavier than Jones). They have different traits. If they had the same traits you would have a point. Come on, LOL.
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Football Jones
Footballguy
I'm sure you're trying to make a good point, but to be honest, you've lost me.
Sorry.
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Football Jones
Footballguy
Also, I take offense to the bragging comment. So it's bragging if I say I've had success vetting out smaller RBs?
I only mentioned that because it validates what I'm saying. I had no intention of bringing attention to myself or patting myself on the back.
Jeez. Sometimes you just can't win.
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Football Jones
Footballguy
I was shocked when I received the amount of criticism I did when I claimed I wasn't high on Abdullah when he came out. Talk about getting people pissed, LOL. Looks like I've hit another nerve with Jones. It's ok, it just kind of surprises me because the book isn't even written yet on those guys. I simply gave my opinions like everyone else.
People telling me Williams sucks doesn't bother me at all. And it's not like I've said Abdullah or Jones sucks. I don't quite understand it.
People telling me Williams sucks doesn't bother me at all. And it's not like I've said Abdullah or Jones sucks. I don't quite understand it.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Sorry that you were offended by me interpreting your statement as bragging. That is not my intent. That is how I interpreted your statement however.
My intent is bust some pretty commonly shared opinions that are myths, such as a RB being smaller (however that is defined) as needing to have other special traits to be a featured RB.
There are coaches who share that view with you, it isn't uncommon, but when putting that to a test the idea turns out to be false, even though many coaches do think this way and therefore through their decision process help that view produce the results.
FWIW weight is the 3rd most predictive combine measurement. Being heavier is good.
In terms of its predictive value however its correlation is pretty weak. This is beyond the problem of weight being something that changes for a player throughout their career.
Very possible that Jamaal Williams played at a higher weight that he measured at the combine and pro day. He may have dropped weight to help him perform other drills with a faster time.
The power he shows at the college level may be due to the lack of strength and tackling ability of the defenders he is facing that does not exist at the NFL level. Otherwise I don't see why it isn't translating to the NFL.
My intent is bust some pretty commonly shared opinions that are myths, such as a RB being smaller (however that is defined) as needing to have other special traits to be a featured RB.
There are coaches who share that view with you, it isn't uncommon, but when putting that to a test the idea turns out to be false, even though many coaches do think this way and therefore through their decision process help that view produce the results.
FWIW weight is the 3rd most predictive combine measurement. Being heavier is good.
In terms of its predictive value however its correlation is pretty weak. This is beyond the problem of weight being something that changes for a player throughout their career.
Very possible that Jamaal Williams played at a higher weight that he measured at the combine and pro day. He may have dropped weight to help him perform other drills with a faster time.
The power he shows at the college level may be due to the lack of strength and tackling ability of the defenders he is facing that does not exist at the NFL level. Otherwise I don't see why it isn't translating to the NFL.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
FWIW I am not pissed or irritated at all.I was shocked when I received the amount of criticism I did when I claimed I wasn't high on Abdullah when he came out. Talk about getting people pissed, LOL. Looks like I've hit another nerve with Jones. It's ok, it just kind of surprises me because the book isn't even written yet on those guys. I simply gave my opinions like everyone else.
People telling me Williams sucks doesn't bother me at all. And it's not like I've said Abdullah or Jones sucks. I don't quite understand it.
I just think your perspective is incorrect.
Football Jones
Footballguy
We'll have to agree to disagree. To me, stating it's proven false that smaller RBs don't need certain high end traits to be successful in today's NFL is way out there.
The game has changed in recent years. The players on the defensive side of the ball are so big & fast now it negates some of what smaller RBs used to get away with.
The game has changed in recent years. The players on the defensive side of the ball are so big & fast now it negates some of what smaller RBs used to get away with.
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Football Jones
Footballguy
Football Jones
Footballguy
Look, it's obvious we use different methods to determine future success.
It's ok. Maybe it's as simple as there being more than one way to skin a cat (which I mentioned previously).
It's ok. Maybe it's as simple as there being more than one way to skin a cat (which I mentioned previously).
JetMaxx
Footballguy
Football Jones
Footballguy
I don't use BMI. Never have. If you paid too much attention to it, you lost out on RBs like Matt Forte & Chris Johnson to name two guys off the top of my head. I don't particularly like it as a tool.
Only you can decide if it's worthless reading.
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Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
No you don’t because it’s only a tool. When you look at the complete picture CJ and Forte are supreme athletes with major production and target share in college. You don’t know how to use advanced metrics, you don’t know how to eyeball scout because you’ve offered nothing to suggest you can other than your secret process that you can’t compare to someone (Biabreakable) who has proven they can scout players ten times over. Stop trying to justify your ludicrousness in this thread.
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Football Jones
Footballguy
Secret process. LOL. The vast majority of what I do is the exact definition of eyeball scouting.
Sure, I use metrics. Some of them I don't use because they're vastly overrated, IMO. I'm not going go into which ones because your head might explode. Something about me describing how I vette out smaller RBs really gets your goat. I've never seen anything like it.
As complicated as it might seem to you, there are a ton of ways to configure your scouting profile. If you follow Biabreakable's methods, that's great. I'm sure he does fine work.
It sounds like I do things a little differently than what you're used to & you just can't deal with it. I'm not sure I've ever called anyone out, but you, my friend, have added absolutely nothing to this thread.
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Football Jones
Footballguy
BTW, I only mentioned Matt Forte & Chris Johnson because it magnifies the potential problems of putting too much weight into BMI.
Rewind to early 2008. BMI was beginning to gain a lot of steam if I remember correctly. I had a lot of spirited discussions with people who thought Forte & CJ could not be productive due to low BMI. It was quite a show, LOL. I don't remember anyone getting disrespectful, but they let me know how important BMI was.
That said, I'm not trashing BMI or any metric. I can respect them all to some degree. It really depends on how much weight you put into them, how they correlate to your other scouting methods, & if you're flexible.
Rewind to early 2008. BMI was beginning to gain a lot of steam if I remember correctly. I had a lot of spirited discussions with people who thought Forte & CJ could not be productive due to low BMI. It was quite a show, LOL. I don't remember anyone getting disrespectful, but they let me know how important BMI was.
That said, I'm not trashing BMI or any metric. I can respect them all to some degree. It really depends on how much weight you put into them, how they correlate to your other scouting methods, & if you're flexible.
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Football Jones
Footballguy
Also, I don't care how you go about things, you're going to miss. It happens. I've had good success with my methods, but everyone misses. However, if you get the vast majority of your evaluations right, you're way ahead of the pack.
I'm open to the possibility of being wrong about Jones, but in this particular case, I'm pretty confident he won't be a long-term feature back. That said, my evaluation is far from a lock.
I'm open to the possibility of being wrong about Jones, but in this particular case, I'm pretty confident he won't be a long-term feature back. That said, my evaluation is far from a lock.
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branch0095
Footballguy
I hope we don't overreact to one nice game against a DAL front 7 that's been getting gashed by every RB they face. Make no mistake about it, this was plus-matchup for Jones.
Having said that, I've seen enough from Jones to at least say that he passes the eyeball test to me much more than the other GB RBs. Jones has much more burst than the other two RBs, and he looks like he's being shot out of a cannon compared to what little bit I've seen from Williams in preseason and his few carries in-season. Montgomery has not been good as a rusher either, and I think it's pretty clear that he's not built to be a workhorse RB. What I think maintains value for Montgomery and caps Jones ' (ot maybe even Williams ') upside is that Montgomery possesses skills as a receiver and a gadget-play RB that the other two don't.
What I fear from a fantasy perspective is that Jones may very well become the lead back and get 15-18 carries per game, but Montgomery will still be used as the passing back and be in the game when GB goes up tempo or in the "2min offense". If that's the case then I think Jones will be another RB that you'll need a TD from to have a solid game, and conversely we can forget about the usage Montgomery had over the first few weeks too. Honestly I'd like to see one of these RBs take over as a 3-down RB, but then again that's what we fantasy owners always want with our RBs and very rarely do we ever get it unless it's truly special RB talents.
Having said that, I've seen enough from Jones to at least say that he passes the eyeball test to me much more than the other GB RBs. Jones has much more burst than the other two RBs, and he looks like he's being shot out of a cannon compared to what little bit I've seen from Williams in preseason and his few carries in-season. Montgomery has not been good as a rusher either, and I think it's pretty clear that he's not built to be a workhorse RB. What I think maintains value for Montgomery and caps Jones ' (ot maybe even Williams ') upside is that Montgomery possesses skills as a receiver and a gadget-play RB that the other two don't.
What I fear from a fantasy perspective is that Jones may very well become the lead back and get 15-18 carries per game, but Montgomery will still be used as the passing back and be in the game when GB goes up tempo or in the "2min offense". If that's the case then I think Jones will be another RB that you'll need a TD from to have a solid game, and conversely we can forget about the usage Montgomery had over the first few weeks too. Honestly I'd like to see one of these RBs take over as a 3-down RB, but then again that's what we fantasy owners always want with our RBs and very rarely do we ever get it unless it's truly special RB talents.
I guess I can only speak for myself, but IMO the big disconnect here is that you've repeatedly mentioned that your evaluation relies on "specific traits", and requires that smaller backs be "exceptional" at these specific traits.Football Jones said:
Yet to date I have no idea what this list of specific traits is, or what constitutes exceptional, and in the context of this thread, which specific traits you rate Jones as exceptional and which ones you don't.
Or in other words, if you had said you don't like Jones long term for these five reasons, and reason #1 was his weight, and the other 4 were deficits in specific traits you identified and elaborated on on Jones specifically, maybe folks would understand your evaluation better.
Just my $0.02.
Boston
Footballguy
Unfortunately for the fantasy-world this looks like it may turn into a far better "real" footbal situation then fantasy situation...right now you gotta believe Jones is going to get more opportunities but Montgomery is not going to become an afterthought...you also have Williams lingering around even though he hasn't showed much to date...one question becomes are you good having both or will you just be frustrated because they trade-off points on a week-to-week basis...real interesting situation here...I have Jones and currently talking to the Montgomery owner about trading for him or trading Jones to him...not sure what the right move here is...branch0095 said:
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
@Bojang0301 please don't talk me up as some scouting savant. I am not. I make bad calls just like anyone else.
I do think I have gotten a better over the last few years and I have put in some time to improve my evaluations of college players, but I still have a lot to learn.
Thanks for the kind words but I don't think I deserve them.
I do think I have gotten a better over the last few years and I have put in some time to improve my evaluations of college players, but I still have a lot to learn.
Thanks for the kind words but I don't think I deserve them.
Scooby1974
Footballguy
Get a room. 
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Football Jones said:That's funny. I think yours is incorrect.
A lot of people think bigger is better when it comes to RB, including NFL coaches. It is a pretty common opinion to have but one I have often disagreed with.
Like anything else the results are mixed bag.
I would like to hear more about what exceptional traits a smaller RB needs to be a featured RB. Have had this discussion several times over the years and I have never been convinced that this is the case. There are always exceptions to axioms such as this.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Sorry to put you in the middle. I’ve just never seen anything like this. Guy actually thinks people are arguing with him over Jones and not that he can’t articulate one tangible argument or describe a super secret, ultra elite formula that is massively successful.
This is fantasy football, he said it himself: it’s not rocket science. There is no end all be all complete formula and that’s why real experts like Evan Silva will come out and drum up a 3 page analysis for all the weekends games and have that out there as free content. The only people offering up analysis I’d be curious to see in a pay format is PFF and they usually have great articles and weekly grades for free as well. Player profiler has advanced metrics that is moving the fantasy game much more toward the predictability of baseball, where patterns in athletic ability, collegiate production, and NFL efficiency all meet at a crossroads and we can really see who is what. He made a ridiculous statement out the gate, whatever that #### happens, I’ve said way more idiotic things on this board then backs should be 220. I showed him that the top 5 RB’s in rushing yards all-time were below that weight and he has still written paragraph after paragraph trying to justify that position and then insinuating everyone else around him is being the dramatic ones. It’s not even about Jones anymore and I’m sorry this has gone so far off course.
I’m not sure what Jones is yet, no one can predict that but I can look at his metrics and see that he certainly has the ability to be a feature back much in the same vein as Lesean McCoy, if I had to give him a ceiling. Now that’s a pretty damn high one but that is what his skill set is reflective of. It will be interesting to see how much he is on the field when Ty Mont gets back because I think he’s become a pretty good RB in his own right.
Football Jones
Footballguy
I believe I mentioned that, but I'll go over it again. The categories are nothing out of the ordinary. The smaller the RB, the more they need specific traits like escapability, quickness, & long speed. The overall package has to be exceptional for a smaller RB. One key thing that helps any RB & smaller ones in particular is having loose hips (like McCoy). Of course, vision, pass receiving ability, etc. come into play with any RB.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Sounds an awful lot like SPARQ scores... Jones was the #2 RB in the 2017 draft class for SPARQ score
Football Jones
Footballguy
You're taking my posts the wrong way. You're way out there.
If you truly read everything I've posted, you'll find it's a good general overview. Maybe you find it confusing or you're so against it you're blinded, but I've given you & others my thoughts on the matter.
It's definitely not a secret formula as you keep insisting to try to poke fun, LOL. Not sure what else to say.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Decoded....
I have such a great overview of this topic, but you're either too stupid or too short sighted to see it.
You can't make this stuff up. "I'm so right you must be a complete idiot not to get it"When you think everyone in the room is crazy except for you, time to take a second look at yourself...
Football Jones
Footballguy
Nope. Not at all. I don't put NEARLY as much stock into timed events as most FFers. I could write a thesis on why the scouting community should change the way they go about testing at the Combine & such. Good example is Cook's 3-cone time. I know I keep harping on this, but the vast majority of what I do is simple eyeball scouting. Besides, what criteria did you think I was using? Those traits are typical RB traits. I did mention the traits in an earlier post, but with all the back & forth, it could've easily been missed. No problem.
BTW, I believe on-field traits are much more reliable than timed events as a predictor of success.
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Football Jones
Footballguy
That's a good one, LOL.
Decoded....
I have such a great overview of this topic, but you're either too stupid or too short sighted to see it.
When you think everyone in the room is crazy except for you, time to take a second look at yourself...
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
Mavis is that you? You know, circumventing the forced vacation is a violation of FBG Forum policy. That's almost to the letter what he's said.
Contradicting himself... "it's all about quickness and speed, but not timed events that actually quantify these areas, just see your your eyes. You'll know it when you see it. Trust me, I'm so good you must be a moron not to understand"
Seems to be his MO... let's not let this thread get ruined either guys.
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Football Jones
Footballguy
I don't know who Mavis is, but you have this fascination about me trying to come off as a smart guy. Get over it, LOL.
Because I don't put as much weight into SPARQ scores as you, I'm a smart guy?
Every once in awhile I get into one of these discussions where there's a lot of back & forth, but this one with all the accusations & everything takes the cake. Take it to the FFA forum. I'd actually like to talk some football. I have no problem with people disagreeing with me, but all the other stuff distracts from the thread.
Because I don't put as much weight into SPARQ scores as you, I'm a smart guy?
Every once in awhile I get into one of these discussions where there's a lot of back & forth, but this one with all the accusations & everything takes the cake. Take it to the FFA forum. I'd actually like to talk some football. I have no problem with people disagreeing with me, but all the other stuff distracts from the thread.
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Football Jones
Footballguy
I don't believe bigger is necessarily better. I'm just saying 220 is about the point where I don't worry about size.
A lot of people think bigger is better when it comes to RB, including NFL coaches. It is a pretty common opinion to have but one I have often disagreed with.
Like anything else the results are mixed bag.
I would like to hear more about what exceptional traits a smaller RB needs to be a featured RB. Have had this discussion several times over the years and I have never been convinced that this is the case. There are always exceptions to axioms such as this.
Football Jones
Footballguy
So let me get this straight. I do use metrics to some degree, but if you don't put a lot of weight into BMI, SPARQ scores, & certain other metrics, you're not only stupid, you're an egomaniac.
Got it.
Sad day in the SP for me.
Got it.
Sad day in the SP for me.
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Football Jones
Footballguy
I haven't posted in awhile due to being busy, but the last few weeks I've been a lot more active because I'm laid up at home & it's driving me crazy. Got to do something.
I tend to graviate into threads where I have a contrarian view simply to add a differing opinion. I think that's healthy. I'm not too interested in threads where everyone agrees because there's essentially nothing to debate. That MO kind of sets me up for the people who can't handle a different viewpoint, but I get it. FFers are a passionate lot.
That said, this thread is one reason why I tend to shy away from posting unless I'm bored or REALLY want to get my point across for some specific reason. It eventually breaks down into name-calling & other childish activities. I don't mind spirited discussions one bit, but the extra stuff is a real bummer.
I tend to graviate into threads where I have a contrarian view simply to add a differing opinion. I think that's healthy. I'm not too interested in threads where everyone agrees because there's essentially nothing to debate. That MO kind of sets me up for the people who can't handle a different viewpoint, but I get it. FFers are a passionate lot.
That said, this thread is one reason why I tend to shy away from posting unless I'm bored or REALLY want to get my point across for some specific reason. It eventually breaks down into name-calling & other childish activities. I don't mind spirited discussions one bit, but the extra stuff is a real bummer.
Football Jones
Footballguy
Just want to add it wasn't everybody. I'm fine with most everyone that posted, but all it takes is a couple people to derail a thread.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Kind of tired of this conversation (as I imagine others reading it are).
Your statement contradicts itself.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I just think it's odd that you put stock into speed and agility, but take no stock into objective measures that quantify these things. if you don't like Sparq scores, then what objective measures do you use to quantify these "special abilities"?
No. You're just contradicting yourself... you like RBs over 220, but under 220 is okay as long as you possess special abilities such as agility, speed, etc. But not the kind of speed/agility that is measurable in Sparq scores. That has no value in determining speed, agility, etc. Just weird. You still haven't explained these "special abilities" that you talk about. You mentioned a few, but haven't explained how you measure those.
You like measurables when it comes to weight as a blanket number, but you don't like taking an athlete's height into consideration, such as BMI (a 6'5 230 pound RB vs a 5'5 215 pound RB will play completely different). But, you like looking at more specifics such as speed, agility, etc... but not scores that give blanket numbers (SPARQ). How convenient.
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Football Jones
Footballguy
edit
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Football Jones
Footballguy
Yeah, we've lost it at this point & I'm getting kind of fed up, LOL, but it's not a contradiction. I really would like to clear this up, but maybe some of you guys are taking things too literally with the 220.
Be open to the fact I can be really high on a small RB if they've got the right traits. Also, on the other side of the coin, I'll be concerned about the very same attributes for bigger RBs (around 235-240). Are they too much of a plodder, etc?
It's all relative to their size & what they bring to the table.
Football Jones
Footballguy
Hopefully, the post before this cleared things up. If it didn't, too bad.
Give it up. I'm doing the same.
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Football Jones
Footballguy
BTW, I've explained this elsewhere & they got it. Didn't mean they agreed with me necessarily, but they understood.
I really think many of you assumed too much &/or thought I was full of ####, LOL
Let's let this die. No hard feelings.
I really think many of you assumed too much &/or thought I was full of ####, LOL
Let's let this die. No hard feelings.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
If I'm a Jones owner (and not a Ty owner) I'm probably trying to sell him to the Ty owner for a king's ransom. The most likely scenario is that Ty comes back at some point and Jones/Ty form some type of timeshare IMO. Even though I'm still not sold on Ty as a runner and think he's possibly an example of the "modern age RB" taken a step too far I doubt GB just tosses him to the side. He's too versatile not to use.
Of course, Ty is a guy who has gone to the sideline with wrist, ankle and chest injuries in the first month of action and there's a possibility that he simply can't hold up. The problem is that if Jones forces a timeshare and Ty's usage is reduced, the odds that Ty stays healthy increases.
So yeah, the biggest thing Jones owners need to contemplate is whether or not his value has peaked.
Of course, Ty is a guy who has gone to the sideline with wrist, ankle and chest injuries in the first month of action and there's a possibility that he simply can't hold up. The problem is that if Jones forces a timeshare and Ty's usage is reduced, the odds that Ty stays healthy increases.
So yeah, the biggest thing Jones owners need to contemplate is whether or not his value has peaked.
