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RB/WR to Exploit/Avoid Week 1 (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
You are going to mostly play every single one of the Top 20 RBs that were taken according to ADP, and you’ll keep doing that for at least the first 2-3 weeks until we see some trends.

As I always like to point out, there’s no way it works out similar to the year prior or typically how they come off the board so buckle up

CMC
Ekeler
Barkley
Bijan Robinson…1st guy I simply question what the distribution is going to be Week 1, Week 2, it might take a couple weeks before he truly has the full workload and as an investor, I also do not want to see them run him into the ground, not in the 1st Half of the season. They are playing the Panthers at home, Carolina does have some folks in the media and journalists that seem optimistic about their Defense this season so it might not be a pushover as much as you think.

Chubb
Jacobs…sat out all of camp, hope he’s ready Week 1
Henry
Pollard
Johnathan Taylor…oops!
Harris
Etienne…would like to see how much Bigsby is going to be used here
Rhamondre Stephenson

That was the Top 12 off the board in most redraft leagues

Joe Mixon…solid RB2
Jahmyr Gibbs…will split time with Monty to start
Aaron Jones…solid RB2
Breece Hall…you trust rolling him out there Week 1?
Kenny Walker…coming off injury and has a flashy Rookie to compete with
Dameon Pierce…coming off injury from last year
Sanders…didn’t play much in the preseason but Carolina could be a surprise team
Mattison…Most hope he’s a solid RB2, I have my doubts
Kamara…serving 1st of his 3 game suspension
Dobbins…I never know if he’s really healthy, what his role is, touches in the RZ, eager to learn
Akers…you drafted him sure but now you gotta actually start him every week
White…not excited about the Bucs offense, will be looking forward to understanding how good or bad they will be this season.

The 2nd batch of 12, several in there that are a little suspect. With Flex positions, we need to look at the next 10-15 RBs and see if there are any potential sleepers to try and exploit Week 1.


James Connor…Mostly was an RB3 for anyone that took him
Dalvin Cook…How can you know what to expect? Total guess until we see the MNF vs Buff
Javonte Williams…Seems like many feel he is going to be ready but I have a lot of skepticism
D’Andre Swift…I like the upside if he can stay on the field.
James Cook…If you have Cook and Kamara as an example, you drafted well.
Isiah Pacheco…Again, if you have Taylor or got in a pinch, this might be an early season savior.

Monty…he’s likely to see more action early in the season as Gibbs learns the ropes.
AJ Dillon…they almost traded him for Taylor if rumors are true.
Herbert…Will do better than some think
Jamaal Williams…Who is going to lead the Saints while Kamara is suspended?
Gibson and Robinson, Jr…Which Washington RB do you want to roll out there vs the AZ Cards? Would seem like there is an opportunity this weekend for one of them to have decent numbers.

Who is going to be the lead RB for Indy and will it matter the first few weeks of the season?
 
Quick rundown of the WIde Receivers Week 1

JJ, Chase, Hill, Kupp, Diggs, Lamb, Adams,AJBrown, G.Wilson, ARSB
Waddle, Olave, D.Smith, Higgins, Metcalf, Ridley, Deebo, Cooper, K.Allen, DJ Moore
Hopkins, McLaurin, C,Watson, M.Williams, C.Godwin,
Jeudy(Injured), London, Lockett, Aiyuk, Kirk…that is your Top 30 WRs and some of you in 12 team Redrafts, start 3-WR formats plus Flex, there’s a lot more names you have to roll thru.

Mike Evans…remember when he was automatic
Diontae Johnson
Michael Pittman…good luck with ARich as his QB
George Pickens…can’t be in the same area every week with Johnson, see how it shakes out
Jahan Dotson…looking forward to watching him improve on his rookie numbers.
Marquise Brown
Jordan Addison…WR37 already? Are people auto starting him for the Vikings?
Brandin Cooks…WR2 in the Dallas offense? Going to be hard to predict which weeks he hit
Jaxson-Smith…not Week1, yes/no?
Odell Beckham Jr…I would consider starting him immediately depending on your options
Courtland Sutton…you would think with Jeudy nursing a hammy, Mims feels like the play
Michael Thomas
Gabe Davis…can explode on the right weeks but against the Jets?
JuJu…how are you feeling about that Patriots’ offense and the passing game?

Any KC Wide Receiver worth a shot in Week 1 vs Detroit?
Adam Thielen, Alan Lazard, Elijah Moore?

What you got for us?
 
Week 1 I just go with the best lineup I have.

I try not to get cute with matchups - especially because we don’t actually know anything yet.

pass & run defenses we perceive as weak could be better than expected.

I try to set it and forget it week 1. That’s why I drafted/accumulated that talent.

If I have coin-flippy dynasty decisions maybe I go with the better matchup, but generally I try not to overthink week 1.
 
Quick rundown of the WIde Receivers Week 1

JJ, Chase, Hill, Kupp, Diggs, Lamb, Adams,AJBrown, G.Wilson, ARSB
Waddle, Olave, D.Smith, Higgins, Metcalf, Ridley, Deebo, Cooper, K.Allen, DJ Moore
Hopkins, McLaurin, C,Watson, M.Williams, C.Godwin,
Jeudy(Injured), London, Lockett, Aiyuk, Kirk…that is your Top 30 WRs and some of you in 12 team Redrafts, start 3-WR formats plus Flex, there’s a lot more names you have to roll thru.

Mike Evans…remember when he was automatic
Diontae Johnson
Michael Pittman…good luck with ARich as his QB
George Pickens…can’t be in the same area every week with Johnson, see how it shakes out
Jahan Dotson…looking forward to watching him improve on his rookie numbers.
Marquise Brown
Jordan Addison…WR37 already? Are people auto starting him for the Vikings?
Brandin Cooks…WR2 in the Dallas offense? Going to be hard to predict which weeks he hit
Jaxson-Smith…not Week1, yes/no?
Odell Beckham Jr…I would consider starting him immediately depending on your options
Courtland Sutton…you would think with Jeudy nursing a hammy, Mims feels like the play
Michael Thomas
Gabe Davis…can explode on the right weeks but against the Jets?
JuJu…how are you feeling about that Patriots’ offense and the passing game?

Any KC Wide Receiver worth a shot in Week 1 vs Detroit?
Adam Thielen, Alan Lazard, Elijah Moore?

What you got for us?
How do you see the pecking order here ? CeeDee ,Pollard, Cooks?
 
You are going to mostly play every single one of the Top 20 RBs that were taken according to ADP, and you’ll keep doing that for at least the first 2-3 weeks until we see some trends.

As I always like to point out, there’s no way it works out similar to the year prior or typically how they come off the board so buckle up

CMC
Ekeler
Barkley
Bijan Robinson…1st guy I simply question what the distribution is going to be Week 1, Week 2, it might take a couple weeks before he truly has the full workload and as an investor, I also do not want to see them run him into the ground, not in the 1st Half of the season. They are playing the Panthers at home, Carolina does have some folks in the media and journalists that seem optimistic about their Defense this season so it might not be a pushover as much as you think.

Chubb
Jacobs…sat out all of camp, hope he’s ready Week 1
Henry
Pollard
Johnathan Taylor…oops!
Harris
Etienne…would like to see how much Bigsby is going to be used here
Rhamondre Stephenson

That was the Top 12 off the board in most redraft leagues

Joe Mixon…solid RB2
Jahmyr Gibbs…will split time with Monty to start
Aaron Jones…solid RB2
Breece Hall…you trust rolling him out there Week 1?
Kenny Walker…coming off injury and has a flashy Rookie to compete with
Dameon Pierce…coming off injury from last year
Sanders…didn’t play much in the preseason but Carolina could be a surprise team
Mattison…Most hope he’s a solid RB2, I have my doubts
Kamara…serving 1st of his 3 game suspension
Dobbins…I never know if he’s really healthy, what his role is, touches in the RZ, eager to learn
Akers…you drafted him sure but now you gotta actually start him every week
White…not excited about the Bucs offense, will be looking forward to understanding how good or bad they will be this season.

The 2nd batch of 12, several in there that are a little suspect. With Flex positions, we need to look at the next 10-15 RBs and see if there are any potential sleepers to try and exploit Week 1.


James Connor…Mostly was an RB3 for anyone that took him
Dalvin Cook…How can you know what to expect? Total guess until we see the MNF vs Buff
Javonte Williams…Seems like many feel he is going to be ready but I have a lot of skepticism
D’Andre Swift…I like the upside if he can stay on the field.
James Cook…If you have Cook and Kamara as an example, you drafted well.
Isiah Pacheco…Again, if you have Taylor or got in a pinch, this might be an early season savior.

Monty…he’s likely to see more action early in the season as Gibbs learns the ropes.
AJ Dillon…they almost traded him for Taylor if rumors are true.
Herbert…Will do better than some think
Jamaal Williams…Who is going to lead the Saints while Kamara is suspended?
Gibson and Robinson, Jr…Which Washington RB do you want to roll out there vs the AZ Cards? Would seem like there is an opportunity this weekend for one of them to have decent numbers.

Who is going to be the lead RB for Indy and will it matter the first few weeks of the season?
Jacobs said he continued to follow the same stringent workout plan that he found to be successful ahead of his 2022 campaign. He also keeps a personal chef to help with his nutrition. While Wednesday was his first practice with the team this season, he feels that with his prep, there's no rust and he's ready to go.

"Physically, I haven't missed a step. I definitely can say that" said Jacobs. "The biggest thing for me, really, was coming back mentally. With the playbook and the new plays, I didn't want to be behind. But when I came in today, I didn't have no [sic] errors. I came in today and was like, 'Oh yeah, I remember this. I remember this.' So now it's about stacking days."
 
Raheem Mostert of Miami has been treated like a red headed stepchild as an NFL starting RB and yet...
We find him likely starting for Miami as they head off to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers.
Top 25-30 Week 1 for him?
I am considering Mostert as a flex over Breece. I like the matchup and the fact that Mostert has that "could take one 50+ for a TD" potential). I could also go WR, not sure yet.
 
Raheem Mostert of Miami has been treated like a red headed stepchild as an NFL starting RB and yet...
We find him likely starting for Miami as they head off to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers.
Top 25-30 Week 1 for him?
I am considering Mostert as a flex over Breece. I like the matchup and the fact that Mostert has that "could take one 50+ for a TD" potential). I could also go WR, not sure yet.
Jeff Wilson just placed on IR. Mostert becomes a week 1 must start?
 
Raheem Mostert of Miami has been treated like a red headed stepchild as an NFL starting RB and yet...
We find him likely starting for Miami as they head off to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers.
Top 25-30 Week 1 for him?
I am considering Mostert as a flex over Breece. I like the matchup and the fact that Mostert has that "could take one 50+ for a TD" potential). I could also go WR, not sure yet.
Jeff Wilson just placed on IR. Mostert becomes a week 1 must start?
great info, thanks!
 
Raheem Mostert of Miami has been treated like a red headed stepchild as an NFL starting RB and yet...
We find him likely starting for Miami as they head off to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers.
Top 25-30 Week 1 for him?
I am considering Mostert as a flex over Breece. I like the matchup and the fact that Mostert has that "could take one 50+ for a TD" potential). I could also go WR, not sure yet.
Jeff Wilson just placed on IR. Mostert becomes a week 1 must start?
I dont know how my RB5 is must start
 
Raheem Mostert of Miami has been treated like a red headed stepchild as an NFL starting RB and yet...
We find him likely starting for Miami as they head off to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers.
Top 25-30 Week 1 for him?
I am considering Mostert as a flex over Breece. I like the matchup and the fact that Mostert has that "could take one 50+ for a TD" potential). I could also go WR, not sure yet.
Jeff Wilson just placed on IR. Mostert becomes a week 1 must start?
Thanks for the info!
I was trying to decide between Cam Akers & Mostert for flex, this info has me leaning towards Mostert now.
 
Raheem Mostert of Miami has been treated like a red headed stepchild as an NFL starting RB and yet...
We find him likely starting for Miami as they head off to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers.
Top 25-30 Week 1 for him?
I am considering Mostert as a flex over Breece. I like the matchup and the fact that Mostert has that "could take one 50+ for a TD" potential). I could also go WR, not sure yet.
Jeff Wilson just placed on IR. Mostert becomes a week 1 must start?
I dont know how my RB5 is must start
Your RB2 is Johnathan Taylor
Your RB3 is Alvin Kamara
Your RB4 is Rashaad Penny
Your RB5 is Raheem Mostert

In a 12 team PPR, that's not unusual
 
Raheem Mostert of Miami has been treated like a red headed stepchild as an NFL starting RB and yet...
We find him likely starting for Miami as they head off to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers.
Top 25-30 Week 1 for him?
I am considering Mostert as a flex over Breece. I like the matchup and the fact that Mostert has that "could take one 50+ for a TD" potential). I could also go WR, not sure yet.
Jeff Wilson just placed on IR. Mostert becomes a week 1 must start?
I dont know how my RB5 is must start
Your RB2 is Johnathan Taylor
Your RB3 is Alvin Kamara
Your RB4 is Rashaad Penny
Your RB5 is Raheem Mostert

In a 12 team PPR, that's not unusual
He would've been must start BEFORE the IR news in this scenario anyway
 
Raheem Mostert of Miami has been treated like a red headed stepchild as an NFL starting RB and yet...
We find him likely starting for Miami as they head off to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers.
Top 25-30 Week 1 for him?
I am considering Mostert as a flex over Breece. I like the matchup and the fact that Mostert has that "could take one 50+ for a TD" potential). I could also go WR, not sure yet.
Jeff Wilson just placed on IR. Mostert becomes a week 1 must start?
I dont know how my RB5 is must start
Your RB2 is Johnathan Taylor
Your RB3 is Alvin Kamara
Your RB4 is Rashaad Penny
Your RB5 is Raheem Mostert

In a 12 team PPR, that's not unusual
He would've been must start BEFORE the IR news in this scenario anyway
Good point
 
For those looking for an opportunity to start Rachaad White, week 1 is a good spot. I dislike the Tampa O as a whole, but White could see as many as 15-18 carries as they try to establish a run game. He should see 4-7 dump off passes as well. Could be a decent start for White, then maybe look to see what you can get for him if you are not a season long believer.
 
Starting Mostert over Dalvin Cook in my flex. Unless we hear anything official about someone else taking first team reps at RB in Miami, Mostert will be a RB2 caliber play in Week 1.
 
Javonte Williams…Seems like many feel he is going to be ready but I have a lot of skepticism

hoping to get some use out of Perine at flex for first two weeks, but news has been trending to him being ready. let's see when the injury reports start flying next week.
IMO it's less about injury reports and more about what we see on the field.

JaWill is trending positively. All reports have been that he's remarkably ahead of schedule.

But, and it's a big butt, I cannot lie, them other brothers can't deny, that year 1 back from ACL (PCL, LCL, all the CLs in JaWill's case) that they don't always have the same burst, or the same confidence in their cuts.

So I think Perine makes for a fine gamble in the mid-to-later rounds - and it should be a bigger split than JaWill shareholders want to believe. In this case jaWill still has to pass the eye test for me to believe that he's back. I suspect the coaches are waiting to see the same.

Game 1 will put most of this speculation to rest.
 
For those looking for an opportunity to start Rachaad White, week 1 is a good spot. I dislike the Tampa O as a whole, but White could see as many as 15-18 carries as they try to establish a run game. He should see 4-7 dump off passes as well. Could be a decent start for White, then maybe look to see what you can get for him if you are not a season long believer.
He's a volume king this year. I took him as my RB3 and will absolutely be rolling him out as a flex option until he gives me reason not to.
 
R. White's inconsistency and low ypc avg are the #1 reason to avoid him at all costs. If they can't run, defenses stack the box and beg Mayfield to try to beat them by throwing.
MOP, your take on Bijan might be wrong here. What better way to reveal your shiny new toy than to run him against a pathetic carolina team ? The Algier talk is just that - talk. I don't think they go back to him in anything more than a COP role. If Bijan doesn't get a ton of carries, he's sure to get a lot of receptions - or both. absolute must start.

Gibbs is the #1 in Detroit until proven otherwise. You watch good morning football? they kept playing the Lions GM reaction to drafting Gibs over, and over, and over today. The GM was shouting, hollering woo-hooing like a kid on Christmas morning the minute the drafted Gibbs. They're going to use this kid till his hands and feet fall off. you're all reading the lions incorrectly. Monty is the insurance to Gibbs , not the other way around. KC has always been sorta weak against the run, and I suspect they will use Gibbs all over the field in KC. Monty couldn't be the best RB in Chicago, has only one 1000 yard season to his name, and now takes his bag o' tricks to detroit to again be a 3 yards and a cloud of dust runner. when will you people listen up about Monty - he sucks. he represents no value for fantasy squads other than maybe a goal line RB inside the 5 yard type guy.a JAGs JAG.
Dotson 280-z is going to flourish this season, top 10 WR finish is probable. he's a must start in all venues.



Javonte Williams…not buying it best to bench him for a few weeks
.
James Cook…stud
Isiah Pacheco…nope. dude literally just walked in from the street with a hanging shoulder. he's not football ready. This game is going to be the CEH show - btw , ceh gained some serious weight ( in a good way) he looks super thick..I'm not he doesn't push Pacheco to the bench at some point.

Monty…nope.never
AJ Dillon…you start him if you have him, this offense is going to have a different look, and the coaches want to get him more involved. they want to be a smash mouth run team
Herbert…Will do better than some think ( I'm with you here)
Jamaal Williams…Who is going to lead the Saints while Kamara is suspended? it won't be kendre miller he's the COP guy.
Gibson and Robinson, Jr…Which Washington RB do you want to roll out there vs the AZ Cards? Would seem like there is an opportunity this weekend for one of them to have decent numbers. - neither, each will cancel the other out. I think this is the Dotson baptism game - the anointing of the next great WR.
 
Gibson and Robinson, Jr…Which Washington RB do you want to roll out there vs the AZ Cards? Would seem like there is an opportunity this weekend for one of them to have decent numbers. - neither, each will cancel the other out. I think this is the Dotson baptism game - the anointing of the next great WR.
I believe both WAS RBs will feast against a bad AZ defense, and the Commanders should get up enough against a bad AZ offense to grind it out.

I'm rolling with Gibson in 3 leagues at flex.
 
I'm rolling Pacheco over Hall in the Flex, week 1.
Talk me out of it.

Not even sure if I own a single share of Hall in redraft, and don't think he'll be ready early. I wouldn't be surprised if he was a bust for most or all the year.

To me, he's the very definition of the "RB trap zone" in the draft this year. If I find myself needing to draft one of the RBs in the 4-6 round ADP range (12 team) then I'm going to tap the sign and say "don't do it."
 
I'm rolling Pacheco over Hall in the Flex, week 1.
Talk me out of it.

Not even sure if I own a single share of Hall in redraft, and don't think he'll be ready early. I wouldn't be surprised if he was a bust for most or all the year.

To me, he's the very definition of the "RB trap zone" in the draft this year. If I find myself needing to draft one of the RBs in the 4-6 round ADP range (12 team) then I'm going to tap the sign and say "don't do it."
Dead zone.
 
Is it me or am I completely wrong about Javonte Williams? He tore his ACL, LCL, and PCL in Week 4 last year.

Nobody has done that and been close to the RB they were prior to the injury in such a short time.

If I recall Adrian Peterson was the only RB to come back and produce but didn't he only tear his ACL?
 
Is it me or am I completely wrong about Javonte Williams? He tore his ACL, LCL, and PCL in Week 4 last year.

Nobody has done that and been close to the RB they were prior to the injury in such a short time.

If I recall Adrian Peterson was the only RB to come back and produce but didn't he only tear his ACL?
That's why we gather here and ask these questions.
I loved Williams coming out of college, was bummed Miami didn't draft him.
But post injury, season after, I want to watch and evaluate for a bit. I was OK passing on him several times.
 
Is it me or am I completely wrong about Javonte Williams? He tore his ACL, LCL, and PCL in Week 4 last year.

Nobody has done that and been close to the RB they were prior to the injury in such a short time.

If I recall Adrian Peterson was the only RB to come back and produce but didn't he only tear his ACL?
That's why we gather here and ask these questions.
I loved Williams coming out of college, was bummed Miami didn't draft him.
But post injury, season after, I want to watch and evaluate for a bit. I was OK passing on him several times.
Got Javonte in the 9th last weekend. Too much good value.
 
Is it me or am I completely wrong about Javonte Williams? He tore his ACL, LCL, and PCL in Week 4 last year.

Nobody has done that and been close to the RB they were prior to the injury in such a short time.

If I recall Adrian Peterson was the only RB to come back and produce but didn't he only tear his ACL?
That's why we gather here and ask these questions.
I loved Williams coming out of college, was bummed Miami didn't draft him.
But post injury, season after, I want to watch and evaluate for a bit. I was OK passing on him several times.
Got Javonte in the 9th last weekend. Too much good value.
That is ridiculously good value. One of the best picks I've heard yet for this whole redraft season.
 
Quick rundown of the WIde Receivers Week 1

JJ, Chase, Hill, Kupp, Diggs, Lamb, Adams,AJBrown, G.Wilson, ARSB
Waddle, Olave, D.Smith, Higgins, Metcalf, Ridley, Deebo, Cooper, K.Allen, DJ Moore
Hopkins, McLaurin, C,Watson, M.Williams, C.Godwin,
Jeudy(Injured), London, Lockett, Aiyuk, Kirk…that is your Top 30 WRs and some of you in 12 team Redrafts, start 3-WR formats plus Flex, there’s a lot more names you have to roll thru.

Mike Evans…remember when he was automatic
Diontae Johnson
Michael Pittman…good luck with ARich as his QB
George Pickens…can’t be in the same area every week with Johnson, see how it shakes out
Jahan Dotson…looking forward to watching him improve on his rookie numbers.
Marquise Brown
Jordan Addison…WR37 already? Are people auto starting him for the Vikings?
Brandin Cooks…WR2 in the Dallas offense? Going to be hard to predict which weeks he hit
Jaxson-Smith…not Week1, yes/no?
Odell Beckham Jr…I would consider starting him immediately depending on your options
Courtland Sutton…you would think with Jeudy nursing a hammy, Mims feels like the play
Michael Thomas
Gabe Davis…can explode on the right weeks but against the Jets?
JuJu…how are you feeling about that Patriots’ offense and the passing game?

Any KC Wide Receiver worth a shot in Week 1 vs Detroit?
Adam Thielen, Alan Lazard, Elijah Moore?

What you got for us?
How do you see the pecking order here ? CeeDee ,Pollard, Cooks?
I think you have it about right
CeeDee, Pollard
Cooks
 
Is it me or am I completely wrong about Javonte Williams? He tore his ACL, LCL, and PCL in Week 4 last year.

Nobody has done that and been close to the RB they were prior to the injury in such a short time.

If I recall Adrian Peterson was the only RB to come back and produce but didn't he only tear his ACL?
That's why we gather here and ask these questions.
I loved Williams coming out of college, was bummed Miami didn't draft him.
But post injury, season after, I want to watch and evaluate for a bit. I was OK passing on him several times.
As I suspected. Broncos said they will ease Javonte in week 1. It's going to take some real time for him to try and get back, IF he can get back to form this season.
 

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