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WR Kevin White, NO (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
jurb26
Footballguy
Strong isn't getting enough attention. He wasn't coming into the combine and isn't for how well he performed today. Maybe not at the level of these 3, but underrated.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I wanted to put Strong third this morning and was looking for a reason to do it today. He impressed, but I can't bump him above White. Easy #4 though.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I couldn't disagree more, Strong is more workout warrior than football player to me. Easily outside my top5, barely in my top10 right now, but might move up 1 or 2 spots.
MAC_32
Footballguy
He could swing a lot draft day, guy needs a lot of development as he is very raw when it comes to routes. Exceptional play maker though. Can't teach what he's done and unlike others of his ilk he has actually done it on the field, consistently. That's where he separates himself from workout warriors IMHO.He needs to go some place with a track record of developing their own though. If he doesn't then he may plateau quickly.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Now that I agree with. He bailed his QB out a lot and he has very good upside, but I guess I'm more conservative there. I'd rather not wait the years this kid will take and I'd likely put him in the late 2nd (depending on draft spot), which is around WR8? Somewhere around there.
beef
Footballguy
5 isn't looking too bad either. sit back and take whoever is left of cooper, gordon, gurley, white, parker.
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Hankmoody
Footballguy
Right, but I was going to see Parker anyway. With White going bonkers though, he may push Gurley/Gordon/Cooper to #4.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Has there ever been a year where there were no RBs taken until pick three or four?
jurb26
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
Oh, it could definitely happen. Pretty good chance that White, Cooper, and Parker will all be picked ahead of the first RB by the NFL. Gordon did not impress today and Gurley has the ACL to go along with whatever question marks people already might have had about him. If those three WRs are all high first rounders and the first RB doesn't come off the board until the late first-early second, it will present a tough decision.
jurb26
Footballguy
Gurley ran away with the 1.01 vote in every format on the voting thread. That thread existed with the already built in fears you site him with. White may have moved up based on today and changed some minds, but neither of the other guys did. There is always a chance it could happen. If we are looking objectively though it's going to be a pretty remote thing to happen. Gurely should not be dropping 3 spots in people's rankings.
MAC_32
Footballguy
The AJ Green/Julio Jones year.
EBF
Footballguy
Well, that's easy to say coming from the biggest Gurley fanboy on the forum. Doesn't mean it will play out that way.
If you've been around here for a while (and you have), you know that those early polls mean diddly. Where did they have Marqise Lee in January last year? Or what about Keenan Allen the year before? Every year players drop in FF mocks from January-May because they test poorly and fall in the NFL draft. Other players rise because they go higher than expected. When the dust settles, there are often significant differences between our January top 12 and actual ADP.
It seems likely that White, Cooper, and Parker will all be first round NFL daft picks. If they go in the top 10-20 and no backs go that high, I think you're going to see Gordon and Gurley dropping to 3-5 in many rookie drafts.
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Archer
Footballguy
Ingram was taken 1.1 in a few of my dynasty leagues that year. Not by me mind you, but it happened a few places.
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EBF
Footballguy
What "facts" are these exactly?
The predictable EBF name calling in the face of actual facts.
Every single NFL.com mock had Cooper/Parker/White ahead of Gurley even before today and I'd argue that all three did fairly well:
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/mock-drafts?icampaign=draft-sub_nav_bar-drafteventpage-mockdraft
Neither one of us can predict May's rookie ADP today, but if it mirrors the NFL draft (which it usually does) and if the NFL draft mirrors these early mocks, there's a very real chance that you'll see Gurley and Gordon sliding to 3-5 in a lot of drafts. Not that controversial of an opinion really.
Everyone is entitled to an opinion, but I don't know that I've ever seen you acknowledge a weakness with Gurley. You defend and pimp him at every opportunity. Consider the possibility that not everyone is quite that 100% all-in on him (especially after the injury) and this discussion will be less jarring.
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jurb26
Footballguy
The fact was pretty simply put. The SP poll that easily voted Gurley as the 1.01 in all formats. You can try and cloud an unbiased vote by name calling that does nothing to actually further the debate. It doesn't change the fact that the results are what they are.What "facts" are these exactly?
The predictable EBF name calling in the face of actual facts.
Every single NFL.com mock had Cooper/Parker/White ahead of Gurley even before today and I'd argue that all three did fairly well:
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/mock-drafts?icampaign=draft-sub_nav_bar-drafteventpage-mockdraft
Neither one of us can predict May's rookie ADP today, but if it mirrors the NFL draft (which it usually does) and if the NFL draft mirrors these early mocks, there's a very real chance that you'll see Gurley and Gordon sliding to 3-5 in a lot of drafts. Not that controversial of an opinion really.
Everyone is entitled to an opinion, but I don't know that I've ever seen you acknowledge a weakness with Gurley. You defend and pimp him at every opportunity. Consider the possibility that not everyone is quite that 100% all-in on him (especially after the injury) and this discussion will be less jarring.
EBF
Footballguy
So your whole argument is based on Shark Pool polls from before the combine (let alone the draft itself)?
Again, go back in time and see how accurate the January/February polls are in terms of predicting April-May ADP.
My guess would be: Not very.
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jurb26
Footballguy
That wasn't the whole point but you seem to gloss over the points of every post so why bother? This thread is about White so I'll let it get back to that topic.White undoubtly did enough today to move up in the consensus rankings. I think most put too much emphasis on the combine but his performance is hard to ignore.
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
Dynasty rookie drafts don't mirror NFL draft positions. They usually reflect talent first, then where the players are drafted and their league scoring rules.What "facts" are these exactly?
The predictable EBF name calling in the face of actual facts.
Every single NFL.com mock had Cooper/Parker/White ahead of Gurley even before today and I'd argue that all three did fairly well:
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/mock-drafts?icampaign=draft-sub_nav_bar-drafteventpage-mockdraft
Neither one of us can predict May's rookie ADP today, but if it mirrors the NFL draft (which it usually does) and if the NFL draft mirrors these early mocks, there's a very real chance that you'll see Gurley and Gordon sliding to 3-5 in a lot of drafts. Not that controversial of an opinion really.
Everyone is entitled to an opinion, but I don't know that I've ever seen you acknowledge a weakness with Gurley. You defend and pimp him at every opportunity. Consider the possibility that not everyone is quite that 100% all-in on him (especially after the injury) and this discussion will be less jarring.
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EBF
Footballguy
Yea, there is some adjustment for positional value and league format, but generally the high picks in the NFL draft tend to be the high picks in the rookie drafts (see: Watkins, Evans, Cooks, Beckham etc).Dynasty rookie drafts don't mirror NFL draft positions. They usually reflect where the players are drafted and their league scoring rules.What "facts" are these exactly?
The predictable EBF name calling in the face of actual facts.
Every single NFL.com mock had Cooper/Parker/White ahead of Gurley even before today and I'd argue that all three did fairly well:
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/mock-drafts?icampaign=draft-sub_nav_bar-drafteventpage-mockdraft
Neither one of us can predict May's rookie ADP today, but if it mirrors the NFL draft (which it usually does) and if the NFL draft mirrors these early mocks, there's a very real chance that you'll see Gurley and Gordon sliding to 3-5 in a lot of drafts. Not that controversial of an opinion really.
Everyone is entitled to an opinion, but I don't know that I've ever seen you acknowledge a weakness with Gurley. You defend and pimp him at every opportunity. Consider the possibility that not everyone is quite that 100% all-in on him (especially after the injury) and this discussion will be less jarring.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Talent first, then landing spot, followed by league structure.Yea, there is some adjustment for positional value and league format, but generally the high picks in the NFL draft tend to be the high picks in the rookie drafts (see: Watkins, Evans, Cooks, Beckham etc).Dynasty rookie drafts don't mirror NFL draft positions. They usually reflect where the players are drafted and their league scoring rules.What "facts" are these exactly?
The predictable EBF name calling in the face of actual facts.
Every single NFL.com mock had Cooper/Parker/White ahead of Gurley even before today and I'd argue that all three did fairly well:
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/mock-drafts?icampaign=draft-sub_nav_bar-drafteventpage-mockdraft
Neither one of us can predict May's rookie ADP today, but if it mirrors the NFL draft (which it usually does) and if the NFL draft mirrors these early mocks, there's a very real chance that you'll see Gurley and Gordon sliding to 3-5 in a lot of drafts. Not that controversial of an opinion really.
Everyone is entitled to an opinion, but I don't know that I've ever seen you acknowledge a weakness with Gurley. You defend and pimp him at every opportunity. Consider the possibility that not everyone is quite that 100% all-in on him (especially after the injury) and this discussion will be less jarring.
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
I picked Watkins one and the guy picking second also picked third so I don't know if he preferred Evans or (giggle) Sankey.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
You're acting like this is a new assumption. I think most people already expected Cooper to go 4th with Gurley outside the top 20 when they ranked Gurley as the 1.01 pick in the current polls. There's no need to put an "if" in front of the idea of RBs going in the top 10, no one was expecting that anyway.EBF said:
Which is of course why you think Mariota/Winston will likely be the top picks, right?EBF said:
ODB was picked in the early 1st round of the NFL draft and had an ADP of 1.08 in MFL rookie drafts. Bishop Sankey and Carlos Hyde were picked in the late 2nd round of the NFL draft and had an ADP of 1.03 and 1.05 in MFL rookie drafts.EBF said:
I realize it can sometimes be difficult to separate reality from our own league tendencies or our own philosophies, but surely you're not ignorant to the fact that rookie running backs are generally selected in fantasy drafts well above where their NFL draft spot would dictate. There were 9 WRs picked ahead of Sankey in the NFL draft last year and only 2 had a higher fantasy ADP than him, and I think it's safe to assume that Gordon and Gurley are unlikely to go at the 60th pick of the NFL draft.
EBF
Footballguy
It's one thing to say you'd pick X guy in January when it's just talk and there's nothing at stake, but it's harder to make that pick when you're on the clock in May if a lot of things have changed. You can say you'd pick Gurley 1.01, but if White/Cooper/Parker all go in the top 15, do you really pass on them for Gurley if he goes late first? I think you'll see a lot of those early voters flip-flop at that point. Heck, I think people on these boards had Damian Williams rated above Demaryius Thomas in January of 2010. Where were those people picking Williams ahead of Thomas in April?You're acting like this is a new assumption. I think most people already expected Cooper to go 4th with Gurley outside the top 20 when they ranked Gurley as the 1.01 pick in the current polls. There's no need to put an "if" in front of the idea of RBs going in the top 10, no one was expecting that anyway.EBF said:
Which is of course why you think Mariota/Winston will likely be the top picks, right?EBF said:
ODB was picked in the early 1st round of the NFL draft and had an ADP of 1.08 in MFL rookie drafts. Bishop Sankey and Carlos Hyde were picked in the late 2nd round of the NFL draft and had an ADP of 1.03 and 1.05 in MFL rookie drafts.EBF said:
I realize it can sometimes be difficult to separate reality from our own league tendencies or our own philosophies, but surely you're not ignorant to the fact that rookie running backs are generally selected in fantasy drafts well above where their NFL draft spot would dictate. There were 9 WRs picked ahead of Sankey in the NFL draft last year and only 2 had a higher fantasy ADP than him, and I think it's safe to assume that Gordon and Gurley are unlikely to go at the 60th pick of the NFL draft.
Likewise, I don't care where people had Gurley/Gordon relative to White/Cooper/Parker in January. It's almost totally irrelevant. What matters is May.
In the leagues I play in, WRs command more trade value than RBs. If White/Cooper/Parker go top 15, people are going to have a tough time passing them up for a late 1st-early 2nd round RB. That doesn't mean individual teams won't reach because of personal preference and/or need, but at this point I'd expect a WR (probably White) to have the 1.01 ADP slot come actual drafts. I see Gurley and/or Gordon dropping to 3-5 in many leagues.
Not sure why this is a controversial opinion worth arguing over. There's a strong chance that all three of those WRs (and maybe DGB) will go ahead of Gurley and Gordon in the NFL draft. In formats where RB/WR carry similar value, you're going to see a lot of people align with the NFL draft position and take the guy who went higher there.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I don't think it's that controversial. I don't think it will happen but it could, especially if Gurley's physical doesn't go well or if the RBs go to bad situations. Rather, my fault is more with the assumptions being made that are leading you to that conclusion.
Firstly, the idea that everyone is going to be shocked and change their mind when the WRs are drafted in the top 15 and the RBs don't go until the late 1st. Everyone is already expecting that to happen anyway. You don't need to keep saying "If" the WRs are drafted first. We all know they're going to be drafted first, and knowing that we still valued the RBs higher just like countless people have valued RBs higher in the past despite them being drafted way later in the NFL draft.
Secondly and even moreso is this notion that rookie drafts align tightly with the NFL draft. That's just not true at all. Here are the last few rookie drafts according to MFL ADP with the player's actual draft position in parenthesis.
2014
1) Sammy Watkins (4)
2) Mike Evans (7)
3) Bishop Sankey (54)
4) Brandin Cooks (20)
5) Carlos Hyde (57)
2013
1) Tavon Austin (8)
2) Giovanni Bernard (37)
3) Le'Veon Bell (48)
4) Montee Ball (58)
5) Eddie Lacy (61)
6) DeAndre Hopkins (27)
2012
7) Trent Richardson (3)
8) Andrew Luck (1)
9) Doug Martin (31)
10) Robert Griffin (2)
11) Justin Blackmon (5)
2011
1) Mark Ingram (28)
2) AJ Green (4)
3) Julio Jones (6)
4) Daniel Thomas (62)
5) Cam Newton (1)
There's a pretty clear standout thing in those lists, and that is the massive disparity between RB ADP in fantasy drafts and RB draft position. They're, on average, picked 25+ spots later in the NFL draft than the WR that was picked after them in fantasy.
The notion that fantasy drafts generally mirror the NFL draft is just way off. If you plotted this out with NFL draft slot on one axis and fantasy adp on the other axis the resulting graph would look like a healthy heart on an ekg monitor with all the spikes.
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EBF
Footballguy
Yea, people will chase the early pop. It happens every year. RBs with immediate chances at a starting job tend to go higher than their talent alone warrants. The flipside is that RBs with blocked immediate opportunity plummet in the rookie draft (Jeremy Hill, Knile Davis, Jerick McKinnon, Christine Michael, Bernard Pierce). I see Gurley as being closer to the latter mold because his ACL injury casts doubt over his ability to contribute next year. You think people like him so much that they're going to pass up higher picks at WR just to keep him on the pine for a year before they can even use him? I don't see that. So again, wake me up in May.
I may have exaggerated the extent to which trends and behaviors in my own leagues generalize to the entire FF world, but in my leagues you can't touch an elite WR in a trade with an elite RB. Rookie draft behavior is not totally predictable though. Teams at the bottom tend to be there for a reason. Usually because their rosters suck and the owners managing them lack patience and make bad decisions. Who are those owners more likely to covet? The WR with the 2-3 year learning curve or the RB who can walk into their starting lineup from day one and theoretically give them better odds to compete right away? They probably should pick door #1, but many will pick door #2. You're right in that regard. All the same, I don't know if Gurley <1 year removed from a blown ACL will appeal to that crowd.
So that leaves Gordon vs. 3-4 likely first round WRs. I still maintain that he'll be there in the 3-5 range in a lot of leagues. That doesn't mean there aren't going to be leagues where teams reach for him based on RB scarcity and positional need, but those employing a BPA strategy in a balanced format will not be grabbing him with a top 2 pick.
I may have exaggerated the extent to which trends and behaviors in my own leagues generalize to the entire FF world, but in my leagues you can't touch an elite WR in a trade with an elite RB. Rookie draft behavior is not totally predictable though. Teams at the bottom tend to be there for a reason. Usually because their rosters suck and the owners managing them lack patience and make bad decisions. Who are those owners more likely to covet? The WR with the 2-3 year learning curve or the RB who can walk into their starting lineup from day one and theoretically give them better odds to compete right away? They probably should pick door #1, but many will pick door #2. You're right in that regard. All the same, I don't know if Gurley <1 year removed from a blown ACL will appeal to that crowd.
So that leaves Gordon vs. 3-4 likely first round WRs. I still maintain that he'll be there in the 3-5 range in a lot of leagues. That doesn't mean there aren't going to be leagues where teams reach for him based on RB scarcity and positional need, but those employing a BPA strategy in a balanced format will not be grabbing him with a top 2 pick.
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EBF
Footballguy
Well, it all ties back to the idea that White blew the lid off the WR competition today and is now (IMO) the logical choice at 1.01 in PPR rookie drafts.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000473098/article/jeremiah-kevin-white-clearcut-no-1-wide-receiver-in-draft
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000473098/article/jeremiah-kevin-white-clearcut-no-1-wide-receiver-in-draft
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Faust
MVP
Jeremiah: Kevin White 'clear-cut No. 1 wide receiver' in draft
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000473098/article/jeremiah-kevin-white-clearcut-no-1-wide-receiver-in-draft
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000473098/article/jeremiah-kevin-white-clearcut-no-1-wide-receiver-in-draft
Jello_Biafra
Footballguy
Xue
Footballguy
He looks fast in shorts in a straight line. Let me know when he does it in a game while running a route. White's performance raises more questions than it answers. With the big question being, "Why doesn't he show this speed in games?"
Why wsn't a 215-lb WR with 4.35 speed blazing past lowly Big 12 DBs on a regular basis? He actually reminds me a lot of Cordarrelle Patterson in this aspect.
You guys are crazy to say White is "clearly" the #1 pick let alone the #1 WR after today. What Amari Cooper did as a Freshman is more meaningful that what Kevin White did in one day. And Parker is no slouch either. He shows better big play ability and he did it with 3 different QBs.
EBF
Footballguy
Patterson had one 100+ yard game in college. White had nine last season. I think it's unfair to suggest that White is some kind of an underachiever. On the balance, his production was outstanding last season. He finished top 10 nationally in receptions, receiving yards, and receptions of 25+. To compare him to a glorified return man like Patterson seems well off the mark. They're also two totally different athletes who move differently on the field.
I think it's hard to manufacture sprint speed. Not all guys who play fast test fast, but you can't run a 4.35 if you're not fast. You just can't. Every now and then you get somebody like Jason Hill (former Washington State) who comes out of nowhere with a 40 time that seems to defy everything in his tape, but by and large the stopwatch doesn't lie. And White's time was so fast that even if we buy the idea that he doesn't play up to that speed, you could add a whole tenth to it and it would still be a very strong time for a 6'3" receiver with good possession skills and route running ability.
I've learned over the years not to over-think things too much in the draft in the rare cases when you get a guy who has the total package. White aced his workout today. He looked good in the drills. His college production was excellent. He's probably going to be a high first round pick. He has a physique and playing style that should translate well to the NFL game. His game film might not be quite as impressive as you might expect, but geeze it's not bad at all. It's very good.
It's hard to find a guy who checks all the boxes. Those are the players I'm looking for every year and I usually only find 2-3 of them per draft.
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Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Factoring in triangle numbers and other workout information, skill set, playing style, what comp player (or combination) does White remind the thread of?
Mayock already said Cooper reminds him somewhat of Torry Holt. The smoothness and polished route running skills also sound a bit like Reggie Wayne.
Mayock already said Cooper reminds him somewhat of Torry Holt. The smoothness and polished route running skills also sound a bit like Reggie Wayne.
Xue
Footballguy
I find it kind of funny you're all over Kevin White now after today.
His production was only "excellent" if you look at total stats. His market share was rather ordinary, especially when you factor in age. Tyler Lockett's "production" was much better while playing in the same conference.
The Patterson comparison stems from the fact that both guys don't know how to get open, despite the fact that they are so much faster and elusive with the ball in their hands. You can't deny that. White just happens to know how to play the ball better. They might "move" differently, yet White isn't a good route runner unless it's a deeper type of route. His intermediate game leaves something to be desired and I didn't see the type of movement skills to translate to a lot of routes. So really, I don't get the PPR talk because it's the shorter receptions that's gonna pad the PPR production.
Cooper is ready to step in and become a PPR machine right now.
Xue
Footballguy
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BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
Even before all this hype and Combine numbers, I've he reminds me of Larry Fizt. The way he high point the ball, catches with his hands, shield defenders and attacks the ball. He doesn't have to be open, just throw it in his direction and watch what he does.
I was high on him before the Combine so with that being said. He still doesn't pass Cooper and is still 2a/2b with Parker.
I would still pick Gurley or Gordon first if I had the chance but I already have Cooper and Gurley with Gordon already taken by another owner so White is #1 on my board.
Tex
