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All pre-draft I kept seeing that they wanted a big slot guy.
Nah. He is who he is and they still drafted competition for him, doesn't really matter what position is next to their name. No real change, he's still a boom or bust much better best ball than non player.
He lost value prior to the draft because they were presumed to draft another WR, not just another target like Kinkaid. I agree he is who he is, actually. But he survived the draft for the most part and will continue to have *some* value. And yes limited as it is. Better in BB as you say. Agreed. But a small bump is warranted IMO.
If you say so. His value didn't change in any of my leagues this offseason and there's no way consensus ADP would price in a 100% chance that they would draft a WR. The bottom line is they traded up for the 1st TE taken in the draft (right behind the top 4 WRs), IMO that's tough to sell as a positive for him. In any event, the "moves" in either direction can't be much.
but that's how ADP works - I'm not making this stuff up - his value has absolutely fallen lately. 100% chance built into ADP? Of course not but the community was betting on it happening. Including in my own ranks. All I'm talking about is bumping him up to about where he was, so yeah nothing big. When I say bump I don't mean that I'm selling my family. I'm talking about ok maybe he was WR40 now WR35. Nothing to get too excited about. My excitement died last year for the most part. But he is still super young and kept his role for 2023.
What about a draft pick value of him as an update. What would be fair to buy and sell him?
I'm early 2nd to sell and I'm not a buyer unless someone sells super low and/or it's part of a package.
Would super low as a buyer be more in the late 2nd early 3rd range?
I wouldn’t sell for that, and as cheaply as I got him in both of my leagues a late 2nd would be a profit.
I know how ADP works, that's why I know it's "value" goes way down in ~March. Much smaller sample size.
Your profit means nothing for his current value.
I mean, I can only look at it in the context of my teams, so that absolutely matters in my evaluation of what I would accept for him.
2.02 sounds about right. That’s probably where I have to seriously consider it.
If you are looking at it like that then you are in the sink cost fallacy. The cost should not impact current value.
I get what you’re saying, but it isn’t a nothingburger - maybe his value didn’t rise. I can buy that.
1st off, no. Sunk cost means I paid more than he’s currently worth, which I didn’t. I got him as a toss-in to a larger deal when he was a rookie in one league , and in another dealt 1:1 for James Robinson before last year. There’s no sunk cost for me. That’s why he’s worth more as a hold than a sell-low, which I thought I’d explained pretty well.
Agree with all of this, especially the last sentence. Last bullet to dodge.
Strange logic.
You are difficult. Many times with investments it pertains to not being able to recover costs spent.
What stopped him from doing it last year? His *checks notes* third year in the league? I thought this was supposed to be his big breakout.Strange logic.
If he comes out and has the success we hoped for last year we should cut bait because he finally did what we expected?
Rational is in the eye of the beholder though.
Reportedly a season-long high ankle injury that he suffered in practice week 3-4
I know it’s fun for people to hate on Davis. I get it. He burned a lot of folks. He was overhyped. All true.
For the 11 millionth time, that was hyperbole, not intended as “my valuation” of him. Which I said at the time. We don’t need to go over that another 11 million times. I absolutely would have sold him for 2x 1sts.
I like evaluation more than valuation....but that's just me I suppose.
I don’t see much impact here.
This all sounds reasonable.
I don’t think waiting for a big game is going to help with that.
Yeah, he’s either going to be the same inefficient WR3 or he’s going to take a step to being a FF WR2.
Just calling out premature valuations of players if me valuing him at what he has proven to be so far is premature.
Agree to disagree, but yes, let’s move on.
I said I’d sell for that which is a different statement. He’s still the WR2 in a high scoring offense. So a mid or late second is just as big of a dice roll imo.
All due respect but your opinion has to be taken with a giant grain of salt- pretty sure even if they had taken a WR you would have been in here spinning it positively.
Maybe a better way to put it would have been “if they drafted a WR, as most expected, his value would have tanked.” I doubt anyone was sniffing around Gabriel anyway at this point.
I like this way to think about it. If they drafted a WR early I would have close to zero interest in acquiring him. As it stands I’m intrigued at a low price for an upside flier.
No, I would have been in here lamenting it like any rational human being. I ate plenty of crow last year.All due respect but your opinion has to be taken with a giant grain of salt- pretty sure even if they had taken a WR you would have been in here spinning it positively.
We can agree to disagree. IMO his value drop already happened and as @barackdhouse said, the expectation that the Bills would draft a WR was baked in.
I think that’s a sensible approach. I feel the same, if I didn’t already have him.
Maybe a little better, but again, it doesn't really work that way. If most TRULY expected them to draft a WR, his value would have already dropped quite a bit in anticipation of that. I don't believe that happened (again I don't know what the ADP showed but it's very limited this time of year IMO), and that makes sense to me because no one really knows what a team is going to do in the draft, especially late in the round. IMO it's more like maybe his value dropped a tick in anticipation of the possibility of drafting a WR, then when they drafted the top TE instead maybe it went back up a tick. Like people puckered up a little during their pick and then unpuckered a little when it came.
Taking a high profile TE in the first impacts Gabe's value, in my opinion. First time the Bill's have done that in forty years and another good option in the offense. Gabe has been somewhat of a security blanket for Allen and is a top option when a play breaks down. Knox has been as well... and Kincaid could eat into that, as could a second year Shakir.
This is the absolute worst time to sell. If he puts up 1/2 season of consistent production he will be worth far more to your lineup than you can get for him on the trade market (which won't change much from where its at today, IMO).
Agree to disagree. While I think @barackdhouse is correct that he’ll get a little bump now, and another bump if the Bills don’t bring in a WR, there’s still a ton of post-hype resentment about him.
