We'll see how long it lasts. It was a pretty insane ban but whatever. I enjoyed the time away and probably won't post as much.welcome back, lol
Milkman! 'Sup, mang. Welcome back.We'll see how long it lasts. It was a pretty insane ban but whatever. I enjoyed the time away and probably won't post as much.
Lol just in and out here and there.
MimsMilkman! 'Sup, mang. Welcome back.
Julio Jones?
It's not how he wins. He's a bully.Just saw a graph of Mims's separation issues. He ranks remarkably towards the bottom of the receiver class in gaining separation at the college level. How will that translate to the professional level. It might be like JJ Arcega-Whiteside
3-cone of 6.66. He will be able to separate.
Gotcha. I prefer defenders falling down and ankles breaking because of routes run rather than contested catches in college, but to each their own.
I just watched that and wasn’t totally impressed. Not sure what’s wrong with me. I guess they didn’t show much variety and nfl corners can defend some of that.Gotcha. I prefer defenders falling down and ankles breaking because of routes run rather than contested catches in college, but to each their own.
3 cone speed def helps but players gain separation different ways.3-cone of 6.66. He will be able to separate.
Terry McLauren had a 7.01 3-cone.
Sam Munson of Pro Football Focus writes that Baylor WR Denzel Sims is an "under-the-radar potential superstar."
As Munson notes, Mims put up strong numbers in 2019, catching 66 passes for 1,015 yards and scoring 12 touchdowns. That was good enough for an 81.9 PFF grade, but it sounds like Munson thinks Mims is capable of even more. "When you throw on his tape, it’s hard not to see things to like right off the bat, " he writes. "Mims is a natural hands catcher. That sounds obvious, but he doesn’t fight the ball the way some receivers do. He routinely catches it away from his body, even when faced with traffic, and does it effortlessly." Mims is getting first-round talk even in this loaded class, and after his strong Senior Bowl and showing at the combine, it seems more likely than not at this point.
SOURCE: Pro Football Focus
Mar 15, 2020, 1:05 PM ET
NFL Media's Lance Zierlein compared Baylor WR Denzel Mims to New Orleans Saints WR Tre'Quan Smith.
"[Mims is] a touchdown threat anytime he's near the red zone, with the focus and body control to finesse and finish catches above the rim," Zierlein writes of the 6-foot-3, 207-pound Baylor receiver. On the more cautious side of the evaluation, the analyst notes that physical press corners can cause Mims issues. Mims has turned in a winning evaluation season to date, showing out well during the Senior Bowl practice week before ripping it up at the combine. In Indianapolis, Mims posted a SPARQ percentile in the 94th percentile of NFL wideouts. He is very much in the Day 1 conversation at this point and figures to be off the board very early in Round 2 if he isn't selected on the first day of festivities.
SOURCE: NFL.com
Mar 20, 2020, 3:57 PM ET
In his latest mock draft, Pro Football Network's Ian Cummings projected the Minnesota Vikings to select Baylor WR Denzel Mims with the No. 25 overall pick.
Cummings has the Vikings selecting Alabama CB Trevon Diggs at No. 22, with their first pick of the first round. They'll have two on Day 1 as matters currently stand. Mims slots in next for Minnesota, here. The analyst sees the Baylor standout as a logical replacement for Stefon Diggs, writing that Mims is a "terrific size-speed prospect with very good physicality and ability against press coverage, similarly imposing contested-catch ability, and solid route nuance."
SOURCE: Pro Football Network
Apr 5, 2020, 11:48 AM ET
I understand why this is a concern re things like breakout age and other metrics considerations, but he's 23 to start the year. I mean, that's a lot of years of football in front of him. If you are just viewing it from a dynasty league lens, does his age really matter?I still can't get past his age, I guess it would depends who's still on the board.
Tex
There's a lot of data involved that says yes it does matter, 23 is actually old for a rookie as most are early 21ish-22 but it's more than just an age thing once you understand the data it makes total sense. I wasn't a believer at first even with the data showing it matters but after I made the mistake for a few years then I became a believer. If he falls to a certain point I'd take him. I'm not a believer in a "no draft" list but more of a "red flag" list. If I have a younger player which I have a few, that's on the board in the same range then I'm passing. I'm not drafting him in the 1st maybe end of 2nd, I'll just put it that way because I'm trying to like him but it's with caution.I understand why this is a concern re things like breakout age and other metrics considerations, but he's 23 to start the year. I mean, that's a lot of years of football in front of him. If you are just viewing it from a dynasty league lens, does his age really matter?
This time last year I was getting shredded on here for pointing out how Deebo was elderly for a rookie. Deebo‘s age in his rookie year is almost a year older than Mims rookie year will be, so Mims feels like a young pup to me nowI still can't get past his age, I guess it would depends who's still on the board.
Tex
Deebo was also drafted in the 2nd round but he's an outliner, even though he was drafted in the 2nd doesn't guarantee success, just more opportunities and Deebo is very talented. He's the 1st Senior WR that I've drafted that actually produced. How many can we actually name that are successful? Not many, I'd bet against him 9.5/10. I haven't really looked at all of his numbers yet but I'm having some concerns and will likely pass depending on who's on the board. I have 3 picks in the 2nd round and as of today I don't plan on using them on Mims. I'm on furlough so I have nothing but time so I'll be doing some deep diving this week.This time last year I was getting shredded on here for pointing out how Deebo was elderly for a rookie. Deebo‘s age in his rookie year is almost a year older than Mims rookie year will be, so Mims feels like a young pup to me now
In addition to Deebo:Deebo was also drafted in the 2nd round but he's an outliner, even though he was drafted in the 2nd doesn't guarantee success, just more opportunities and Deebo is very talented. He's the 1st Senior WR that I've drafted that actually produced. How many can we actually name that are successful? Not many, I'd bet against him 9.5/10. I haven't really looked at all of his numbers yet but I'm having some concerns and will likely pass depending on who's on the board. I have 3 picks in the 2nd round and as of today I don't plan on using them on Mims. I'm on furlough so I have nothing but time so I'll be doing some deep diving this week.
Tex
Calvin Ridley.In addition to Deebo:
Michael Thomas
Terry McLaurin
Courtland Sutton
Cooper Kupp
Michael Gallup
Kenny Golladay
Tyler Lockett
Great list and I'm wondering what percent does this represent? I guess I have another project and to clarify how many of these declared early matters too. I don't mind running the numbers later today. They numbers I have now cover 2017 and that number is 17% success rate which is very, very low.In addition to Deebo:
Michael Thomas
Terry McLaurin
Courtland Sutton
Cooper Kupp
Michael Gallup
Kenny Golladay
Tyler Lockett
Breakout age + Early declaration + Dominator Rating and I've stating there are some outliners, some guys are just gifted but that number compared to the WR that are drafted is still small and I'm still looking at the younger early declaration because they are more successful than those who go all four years of school but I won't derail this thread. I know over the years you have had your methods that work for you but sometimes they don't. I'd like to explore this more. The WR is absolutely the hardest position to nail down but I believe we can be more successful than not by looking at some key data points.Calvin Ridley.
While I think their age and breakout age are useful data points, I dont think they are the only data points to consider.
Some players are just good regardless.
I should clarify, according to the definition success rate = avg 200 PPR during their 1st two years in the NFL.In addition to Deebo:
Michael Thomas
Terry McLaurin
Courtland Sutton
Cooper Kupp
Michael Gallup
Kenny Golladay
Tyler Lockett
It wasn't me. Either way I doubt Mims is a 1st round guy like you do.Who was it on this board that posted some intriguing correlations in senior wr going in rd1 and their lack of success in the NFL? Zyph maybe?
Anyone here worried this comes to fruition with Mims? Not sure he is a rd1 guy but ive seen it in a lot of mocks
Seems arbitrary. Was AB not successful? I guess Chris Godwin was a bust and that DeAndre Hopkins guy - man I'm glad I cut him after year 2. What if a guy misses 4 games but averages 199 - that's way better than someone that averaged 200 points with full schedules. And why is 200 "successful" but not 199? And by your definition then Deebo can't even be a breakout/outlier yet.I should clarify, according to the definition success rate = avg 200 PPR during their 1st two years in the NFL.In addition to Deebo:
Michael Thomas
Terry McLaurin
Courtland Sutton
Cooper Kupp
Michael Gallup
Kenny Golladay
Tyler Lockett
Tex
I think these are all good things to look at. I have some issues with where people might set the margins.BigTex said:Breakout age + Early declaration + Dominator Rating and I've stating there are some outliners, some guys are just gifted but that number compared to the WR that are drafted is still small and I'm still looking at the younger early declaration because they are more successful than those who go all four years of school but I won't derail this thread. I know over the years you have had your methods that work for you but sometimes they don't. I'd like to explore this more. The WR is absolutely the hardest position to nail down but I believe we can be more successful than not by looking at some key data points.
Tex
I agree 100%, I only look at these numbers to help in the decision making process. The 1st thing I notice about Lamb his vision, the way he navigates through traffic is running back like. You see very little WR weave through traffic that way. I always evaluate players first then look at the data last but they are all just tools to help.I think these are all good things to look at. I have some issues with where people might set the margins.
I think watching the players is pretty important too. The thing that I have been focusing on when watching the players is their spatial awareness. How well do they see the field? What is their understanding of defenses and where the leverage points will be? I think this is VERY important. Look at CeeDee Lamb navigate the traffic compared to other WRs.
There is no silver bullet, but I consider each data point together and balance them based on how significant each one is. I try to quantify things as much as I can, but a lot of it just swimming around in my head. For example I do think some combine metrics matter, but I would not weight them as strongly as things like college production.
I've already said this twice, but not to go too far off but the 1st three 3yrs of a WRs season determines their career, this is a fact. There are numbers that show weather or not you should hold on to a WR after their 3rd season in the NFL.Seems arbitrary. Was AB not successful? I guess Chris Godwin was a bust and that DeAndre Hopkins guy - man I'm glad I cut him after year 2. What if a guy misses 4 games but averages 199 - that's way better than someone that averaged 200 points with full schedules. And why is 200 "successful" but not 199? And by your definition then Deebo can't even be a breakout/outlier yet.
17% success rate - what the hit rate on all fantasy 1st round picks? 17% is nearly 1 in 5, and is almost exactly 2 in 12, so is this even statistically significant?
I'm being a bit snarky but don't mean anything personal by it, just pointing out that there's a lot of context that needs to be taken in these things.
Sure, but your statement "averaging 200 points over their first 2 seasons" doesn't jive with this. First because you said 2 years, but also because 200 points seems arbitrary. Why is that the cutoff? Take the top 10 fantasy WR from each of the last 5 years and tell me what their first 2 (or is it 3?) years averaged? I'll bet you a quarantine sandwich it's less than 200 points.I've already said this twice, but not to go too far off but the 1st three 3yrs of a WRs season determines their career, this is a fact. There are numbers that show weather or not you should hold on to a WR after their 3rd season in the NFL.
ETA I have both Hopkins and Deebo on my Dyno team and I drafted AB only to trade him for a hefty price.
Tex
I'm not really sure where you're getting this from. I don't think I said anything about a cutoff, but I'd rather not get to far into this in a thread about Mims. But the method that I'm using works perfectly for me especially considering over the course of my fantasy football years the WR position was the hardest for me to nail down.Sure, but your statement "averaging 200 points over their first 2 seasons" doesn't jive with this. First because you said 2 years, but also because 200 points seems arbitrary. Why is that the cutoff? Take the top 10 fantasy WR from each of the last 5 years and tell me what their first 2 (or is it 3?) years averaged? I'll bet you a quarantine sandwich it's less than 200 points.
Again, not attacking you, I just haven't seen any data here so if you've got it show it, I'd love to parse it out.
You have not seen my plots or my calculations and I prefer to just leave this thread.@BigTex I agree with what Hankmoody is saying about the 200 point season cut off bein something that needs further evaluation. Thresholds and margins are needed but it is always hard to find that Goldylocks sweet spot
When you are plotting a course, if you start out wrong you end up wrong and you are going to need to adjust your calculations to the reality to finally arrive at your destination. The more accurate the point of origin is, the less need for such corrections.
I got it from you:I'm not really sure where you're getting this from. I don't think I said anything about a cutoff, but I'd rather not get to far into this in a thread about Mims. But the method that I'm using works perfectly for me especially considering over the course of my fantasy football years the WR position was the hardest for me to nail down.
To the second part I'm not really sure what you're asking. I'm not here to prove the method I'm currently using, I've seen this play out on the forum before and I'm simply not interested.
Tex
I should clarify, according to the definition success rate = avg 200 PPR during their 1st two years in the NFL.
Tex
No I haven't seen those or what you have decided to use or not use.BigTex said:You have not seen my plots or my calculations and I prefer to just leave this thread.
Tex