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WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Zyphros
- Start date
DocHolliday
Footballguy
Perriman should be set for a good year. He looked great for the Bucs at the end of the season.
dipandglide
Footballguy
This. I'm not convinced Claypool is good enough off the line with his releases and gets enough separation to win at the NFL level on the outside. I'd love to see him move to TE and have taken him in a couple dynasty leagues with that in mind.
@MAC_32 It's interesting you bring CC up when talking about Mims. I see two different players if we're talking about playing WR outside. CC is an uber athlete and got drafted by the Steelers. Those are the only two things I see in the + column at this stage (draft pedigree also). Again, I hope they move CC to TE or he replaces JuJu in the slot if JuJu moves on.
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Black and Gold
Footballguy
I actually chose Mims over Claypool in my rookie draft. The major tiebreaker for me was young Darnold vs. old Ben. Who knows who is going to be the QB for PIT in the near future. Darnold/Mims could turn into a great combo.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I think MAC32 makes a good point about Mims being the 13th WR selected and I haven't really considered Mims from that angle enough maybe. I did give consideration to draft position of course but I was still willing to rank Mims ahead of several WR drafted before him mostly based on my pre draft evaluation of the players. As far as the Mims and Claypool comparison, I believe I already discussed the comparison in the Claypool thread. Claypool has a later break out age than Mims has and was not as productive in his college career as Mims was.
We are only talking about a difference of 10 picks between Claypool and Mims. To me the college production and pre draft evaluation outwiegh the draft position in Mims favor by a lot.
Obviously the Steelers thought differently. It is going to be super hard for me to argue that the Steelers haven't been a WR factory in recent history. Big Ben may not be a good person but he is very good at the football plus the Steelers have been throwing the ball a ton providing more opportunity to their receivers.
Steelers draft pick at WR since 2000
1 2020 2 49 Chase Claypool WR 22 0 0 0 Notre Dame College Stats
2 2019 3 66 Diontae Johnson WR 23 2019 2019 0 0 1 6 16 12 4 41 0 59 680 5 Toledo College Stats
3 2018 2 60 James Washington WR 22 2018 2019 0 0 1 8 29 16 60 952 4 Oklahoma St. College Stats
4 2017 2 62 JuJu Smith-Schuster WR 20 2017 2019 0 1 2 24 42 32 1 13 0 211 2895 17 USC College Stats
5 2016 7 229 Demarcus Ayers WR 22 2016 2016 0 0 0 0 2 1 2 -12 0 6 53 1 Houston College Stats
6 2015 3 87 Sammie Coates WR 22 2015 2018 0 0 0 4 45 6 4 14 0 29 528 2 Auburn College Stats
7 2014 3 97 Dri Archer WR 23 2014 2015 0 0 0 0 20 0 10 40 0 7 23 0 Kent St. College Stats
8 2014 4 118 Martavis Bryant WR 22 2014 2018 0 0 1 19 44 18 17 94 1 145 2183 17 Clemson College Stats
9 2013 3 79 Markus Wheaton WR 22 2013 2018 0 0 2 13 59 22 4 19 0 110 1559 8 Oregon St. College Stats
10 2013 6 186 Justin Brown WR 22 2014 2014 0 0 0 1 8 1 12 94 0 Oklahoma College Stats
11 2012 7 231 Toney Clemons WR 23 2012 2012 0 0 0 0 4 0 3 41 0 Colorado College Stats
12 2010 3 82 Emmanuel Sanders WR 23 2010 2019 0 2 7 55 144 104 18 159 1 601 7893 42 SMU College Stats
13 2010 6 195 Antonio Brown WR 22 2010 2019 4 7 7 87 131 103 32 124 0 841 11263 75 Central Michigan College Stats
14 2009 3 84 Mike Wallace WR 23 2009 2018 0 1 8 57 144 124 34 241 0 538 8072 57 Mississippi College Stats
15 2008 2 53 Limas Sweed WR 23 2008 2009 0 0 0 1 20 0 7 69 0 Texas College Stats
16 2007 7 227 Dallas Baker WR 24 2008 2008 0 0 0 0 8 0 1 6 0 Florida College Stats
17 2006 1 25 Santonio Holmes WR 22 2006 2014 0 0 6 47 112 91 16 89 0 389 6030 36 Ohio St. College Stats
18 2006 3 95 Willie Reid WR 23 2006 2007 0 0 0 1 7 0 4 54 0 Florida St. College Stats
19 2005 4 131 Fred Gibson WR 0 0 0 Georgia College Stats
20 2002 2 62 Antwaan Randle El WR 23 2002 2010 0 0 4 41 143 71 79 438 0 370 4467 15 Indiana College Stats
21 2002 6 202 Lee Mays WR 23 2002 2006 0 0 0 1 49 1 11 154 0 Texas-El Paso College Stats
22 2001 7 218 Chris Taylor WR 0 0 0 Texas A&M College Stats
23 2000 1 8 Plaxico Burress WR 23 2000 2012 0 0 10 69 148 138 1 -7 0 553 8499 64 Michigan St. College Stats
24 2000 4 103 Danny Farmer WR 23 2000 2002 0 0 0 5 33 4 43 611 1 UCLA College
The Steelers didn't draft Antonio Brown until the 6th round pick. To me that is similar to the Vikings getting Stefon DIggs in the 5th round. The Steelers and Vikings got lucky these guys were so good, I don't think that was the expectation when they drafted them. Otherwise they would have been higher picks.
There are quite a few dud picks in there also. Bryant had an awesome half season but he was always a risk and that is why he fell as far as he did in 2014 along with there also being so many other good WR in that draft.
Like I said its hard to argue Pittsburgh hasn't done a good job selecting WRs. They have gotten production out of most of these guys above in one way or another and most of them are 2nd or 3rd round picks.
As far as the value of those 10 selections between Claypool and Mims according to the generic rookie rankings the difference of their draft position is worth 6 career VBD, so not that much at all.
This look at the historic value says WR selected says the 12th and 13th WR selected have worse odds of providing VBD than the first 11 picks do. However I would also say that the 2020 WR class was better than an average draft class at that position.
We are only talking about a difference of 10 picks between Claypool and Mims. To me the college production and pre draft evaluation outwiegh the draft position in Mims favor by a lot.
Obviously the Steelers thought differently. It is going to be super hard for me to argue that the Steelers haven't been a WR factory in recent history. Big Ben may not be a good person but he is very good at the football plus the Steelers have been throwing the ball a ton providing more opportunity to their receivers.
Steelers draft pick at WR since 2000
1 2020 2 49 Chase Claypool WR 22 0 0 0 Notre Dame College Stats
2 2019 3 66 Diontae Johnson WR 23 2019 2019 0 0 1 6 16 12 4 41 0 59 680 5 Toledo College Stats
3 2018 2 60 James Washington WR 22 2018 2019 0 0 1 8 29 16 60 952 4 Oklahoma St. College Stats
4 2017 2 62 JuJu Smith-Schuster WR 20 2017 2019 0 1 2 24 42 32 1 13 0 211 2895 17 USC College Stats
5 2016 7 229 Demarcus Ayers WR 22 2016 2016 0 0 0 0 2 1 2 -12 0 6 53 1 Houston College Stats
6 2015 3 87 Sammie Coates WR 22 2015 2018 0 0 0 4 45 6 4 14 0 29 528 2 Auburn College Stats
7 2014 3 97 Dri Archer WR 23 2014 2015 0 0 0 0 20 0 10 40 0 7 23 0 Kent St. College Stats
8 2014 4 118 Martavis Bryant WR 22 2014 2018 0 0 1 19 44 18 17 94 1 145 2183 17 Clemson College Stats
9 2013 3 79 Markus Wheaton WR 22 2013 2018 0 0 2 13 59 22 4 19 0 110 1559 8 Oregon St. College Stats
10 2013 6 186 Justin Brown WR 22 2014 2014 0 0 0 1 8 1 12 94 0 Oklahoma College Stats
11 2012 7 231 Toney Clemons WR 23 2012 2012 0 0 0 0 4 0 3 41 0 Colorado College Stats
12 2010 3 82 Emmanuel Sanders WR 23 2010 2019 0 2 7 55 144 104 18 159 1 601 7893 42 SMU College Stats
13 2010 6 195 Antonio Brown WR 22 2010 2019 4 7 7 87 131 103 32 124 0 841 11263 75 Central Michigan College Stats
14 2009 3 84 Mike Wallace WR 23 2009 2018 0 1 8 57 144 124 34 241 0 538 8072 57 Mississippi College Stats
15 2008 2 53 Limas Sweed WR 23 2008 2009 0 0 0 1 20 0 7 69 0 Texas College Stats
16 2007 7 227 Dallas Baker WR 24 2008 2008 0 0 0 0 8 0 1 6 0 Florida College Stats
17 2006 1 25 Santonio Holmes WR 22 2006 2014 0 0 6 47 112 91 16 89 0 389 6030 36 Ohio St. College Stats
18 2006 3 95 Willie Reid WR 23 2006 2007 0 0 0 1 7 0 4 54 0 Florida St. College Stats
19 2005 4 131 Fred Gibson WR 0 0 0 Georgia College Stats
20 2002 2 62 Antwaan Randle El WR 23 2002 2010 0 0 4 41 143 71 79 438 0 370 4467 15 Indiana College Stats
21 2002 6 202 Lee Mays WR 23 2002 2006 0 0 0 1 49 1 11 154 0 Texas-El Paso College Stats
22 2001 7 218 Chris Taylor WR 0 0 0 Texas A&M College Stats
23 2000 1 8 Plaxico Burress WR 23 2000 2012 0 0 10 69 148 138 1 -7 0 553 8499 64 Michigan St. College Stats
24 2000 4 103 Danny Farmer WR 23 2000 2002 0 0 0 5 33 4 43 611 1 UCLA College
The Steelers didn't draft Antonio Brown until the 6th round pick. To me that is similar to the Vikings getting Stefon DIggs in the 5th round. The Steelers and Vikings got lucky these guys were so good, I don't think that was the expectation when they drafted them. Otherwise they would have been higher picks.
There are quite a few dud picks in there also. Bryant had an awesome half season but he was always a risk and that is why he fell as far as he did in 2014 along with there also being so many other good WR in that draft.
Like I said its hard to argue Pittsburgh hasn't done a good job selecting WRs. They have gotten production out of most of these guys above in one way or another and most of them are 2nd or 3rd round picks.
As far as the value of those 10 selections between Claypool and Mims according to the generic rookie rankings the difference of their draft position is worth 6 career VBD, so not that much at all.
This look at the historic value says WR selected says the 12th and 13th WR selected have worse odds of providing VBD than the first 11 picks do. However I would also say that the 2020 WR class was better than an average draft class at that position.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
I think they are completely different players, but a tight end Claypool is not. He's a wide receiver. I think he is a pieces are greater than the whole wide receiver, but a team with a history of success identifying and developing receivers picked that guy over this guy. Then I'm left wondering why. Because if Mims really is special you don't pick a role player over that.
MAC_32
Footballguy
H/W/S guys have a natural advantage because they are bigger and faster than their competition. I think his style of play has a tendency to offset that advantage. Or at least may in the transition to the pros. I don't see a sense of urgency when I watch him run, go in-and-out of breaks, and make a play on the ball. It works in college because he is bigger, faster, and stronger than his opponent. He doesn't need to create much separation - he can just out-leverage and doesn't need to out-muscle. But that won't be the case with his competition at this level, so he won't have that natural advantage. Or at least as much of it. So will he still be able to make those plays against the tighter coverage he will see at this level? Will he develop another level that unlocks an ability to separate that he didn't show at Baylor?
There's a part of me that thinks I'm reading too much into him, but I nit pick when it comes to fallers. I want to figure out why they did then be comfortable with a likelihood that they overcome it. And I've been surprised his market rate in our game has not changed much despite that fall. Pre-draft I was waffling between him, Edwards, Aiyuk for WR's 9, 10, and 11. Post draft I realized I didn't need to make that decision. The competition is deciding for me. If I don't get a priority then just sit and wait on Edwards.
rockaction
Footballguy
Denzel Mims drew a serious player comparison in the Player Profiler "most similar to" category: He drew Chris Godwin. They point this out on the front page of their website.
If true, that's sick, heady stuff I'll take any day.
If true, that's sick, heady stuff I'll take any day.
I really struggle with these type of players and had the same first thought looking at the film. Mims does show/grade out as much faster and more athletic than JJAW.
I understand the bust risk and the reservations others have with him but I really think he is a stud.
Limited route tree as Baylor really simplifies their offense in that aspect but the routes he does run--he runs very well with a surprising amount of polish
I don't think separation will ever come easily for him but I don't think hands will be much of an issue--including in contested windows, especially with a QB who isn't afraid to sling it downfield and into tight windows. In that way I see a combo of DK and DJ Chark in Mims with some hints of Breshad Perriman if he gets the drop bug that plagued him his junior year. Broke out early, produced with bad QB play, tested well, good draft capital, so the only hole in his profile is that junior year hand injury, subsequent drop problems and the fact he couldn't declare until he was a senior
I actually think with the Jets depth chart he has a real shot to contribute early
Limited route tree as Baylor really simplifies their offense in that aspect but the routes he does run--he runs very well with a surprising amount of polish
I don't think separation will ever come easily for him but I don't think hands will be much of an issue--including in contested windows, especially with a QB who isn't afraid to sling it downfield and into tight windows. In that way I see a combo of DK and DJ Chark in Mims with some hints of Breshad Perriman if he gets the drop bug that plagued him his junior year. Broke out early, produced with bad QB play, tested well, good draft capital, so the only hole in his profile is that junior year hand injury, subsequent drop problems and the fact he couldn't declare until he was a senior
I actually think with the Jets depth chart he has a real shot to contribute early
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Slapdash said:
I just wanted to respond to this statement about Mims not getting separation from defensive backs in college.
I would like to see a link to what rockaction is referencing. I did a google search on the issue and I couldn't find anything talking about Mims having poor separation relative to other WR prospects.
I don't think he is like JJACW at all. Whiteside only had one thing he does well. Run up to the defender and box out. Hopefully make the catch (rebound) while Mims does need some work on his route running, he is miles ahead of Whiteside as far as his ability to run routes and get open.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
And a way better athlete in general.
With that said, I didn't think JJAW was that bad a prospect. He broke out early and was a junior declare with pretty good efficiency in college.
Just hasn't panned out
More of the impression I got watching (limited) film on him. It reminded me of JJAW's film and how they make contested catches (rebounds). No doubt Mims is a much more explosive athelete.
rockaction
Footballguy
I wound up drafting him at 2.04 in a twelve-team rookie draft, so that should tell you that I took that article with a huge grain of salt.
I would have linked the article, @Biabreakable, but it was likely long gone from my screen or it, more likely, was behind a PFF or other paywall or something like that.
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jm192
Footballguy
Totally what I thought watching highlights of Mims. I still think Darnold can take a big step forward. He hasn't ever had a great receiver. They upgraded the o-line in the draft. Adams is trying to bolt town. I could see their defense being a mess and throwing a ton.
rockaction
Footballguy
They don't. I think I started that as illustrative of separation concerns. Whiteside and Harry had them the previous year, that was the knock on Sims.
But he runs a 4.38. I'm not sure that comparison belongs anywhere near a 4.49.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
No worries. I would be interested to read the criticism for the other side of the story on Mims.
I was doing some searching on Bryan Edwards earlier (didn't exactly find what I was looking for there) and came across a podcast with Matt Harmon and Matt Waldman talking about stuff. I didn't hear them talk about Bryan Edwards, but they both love Mims.
lardonastick
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
4.38 at 6'3". He's similar to DJ Chark physically and has better college production. There is so much to like about Mims.
rockaction
Footballguy
Reading in between the lines and listening to coachspeak, in addition to his interesting musings about Philly, I wonder if Mims has the mental makeup to make it in the pros. I sure hope so.
I was very happy to get him as the eighth rookie wr in a recent startup sf ppr dynasty draft in 12.8. I don’t think it will take long for him to become a favorite target of Darnold. Jets probably won’t be very good again, so hopefully this means more passing volume.
rockaction
Footballguy
He's gotta get on the field and run the right routes. That they're talking about Vyncint Smith starting is alarming to Mims GMs everywhere.
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lardonastick
Footballguy
I'm a Shawn Jefferson fan; him being the NYJ WR coach helped me decide between rookie WRs this year. From the article above:
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That article said penciled in as number two receiver. To be honest I am fine if it takes him half a season to win out the job. I’m guessing by years end he is the top target for the Jets.
rockaction
Footballguy
Ah, I did read the article but saw in the articles below about Smith. Yeah, I don't need immediate rewards, just for him not to be a bust.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
It's likely going to be a slower start for a lot of rookies given this situation. I am not worried longterm.
The other thing that made me target him is his measurable. https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/denzel-mims/
Look up DK Metcalf, who is described as a freak. This guys profile is quite similar. Same height, little lighter, a lot more agile.
I think the only thing that would hold this guy back is a terrible terrible head coach that would insist on giving the playing time to the wrong players.
Look up DK Metcalf, who is described as a freak. This guys profile is quite similar. Same height, little lighter, a lot more agile.
I think the only thing that would hold this guy back is a terrible terrible head coach that would insist on giving the playing time to the wrong players.
rockaction
Footballguy
I remember Player Profiler had him as comparable to Chris Godwin. That sealed the deal for me. He's an elite, athletic freak.The other thing that made me target him is his measurable. https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/denzel-mims/
I think the only thing that would hold this guy back is a terrible terrible head coach that would insist on giving the playing time to the wrong players.
rockaction
Footballguy
They had to compare him to Stephen Hill, didn't they? This might be a double whammy for a Jets fan like me.
Here is a comp on that tool to Metcalf. We can see they both are not great at 20 yard shuffle. But Mims much better at 3 cone. This probably means he can get in and out of cuts easier. I believe this is part of reason Metcalf has limited route tree. But all other categories it is either a tie or Metcalf better. But I think a three cone means a lot. I know the Pats coaching staff uses it as a top measurable. They prefer smaller and nimble a lot of times. But this Mims seems like he has a heckuva athletic ability that most wide receivers would kill for. https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/dk-metcalf
rockaction
Footballguy
Oh yeah, he's an elite athlete. The question is whether that translates into getting targets.
Seems like main battle would be with Perriman. So my guess is rookie starts off slow and comes on as year wears on. This kind of what Metcalf did. Metcalf was pretty strong second half. Maybe a reasonable projection is 75 targets and 45 catches. Hopefully he flashes early and gets more timeshare like Metcalf who had 100 targets and 60 catches. You would think the head coach would try to get his rookie WR game time in a projected bad season for the Jets AND a screwy year for nfl in general.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I think it's pretty well established that Mims is a bit raw - and the lack of an offseason is not ideal for a guy like that. I wouldn't expect big numbers this season. With that said a coaching staff deferring to a "veteran" over a rookie is pretty common and I wouldn't read too much into that.
rockaction
Footballguy
Oh, sure. It's just that one has hopes that someone rated that highly would be able to transcend those initial limitations and restrictions and step into the offense regardless. It may indeed take a while. No denying that.
rockaction
Footballguy
I took him in the same spot and then grabbed Edwards at 2.07. So I can see where you'd have buyer's remorse. I'm not sure if it came down to it that I wouldn't have taken Patrick Queen at 2.04 in my league and then taken Edwards.
