farfromforgotten
Footballguy
Agreed. 60/600/4 as a rookie with da Bears is no small feat. Excited to see what the future with Fields will hold for him.
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WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter farfromforgotten
- Start date
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Keep looking at this kids rookie season and marvel at how impressive he was. Ran great routes, showed strong hands, is a vertical threat, saw a couple really nice contested catches, and a third of his yards were YAC. Dalton is not a world beater but if protected will be a upgrade over Mitch. The upside obviously comes in play if Fields can get in the lineup. With the deep ball accuracy he showed in college this could lead to a large increase in production for Mooney. I think over 1000 yards is coming this year for him.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
What do you base this idea on?
Diggs rookie season with Teddy Bridgewater in his 2nd season in 2015 84 targets 18.5% target share 52 receptions 720 yards 8.6 yards per target
Mooney with Mitch Trubisky and Foles 98 targets 16% target share 61 receptions 631 yards 6.4 yards per target.
While the number of receptions and yards are in similar ball park you need to understand that the Bears threw the ball 614 times in 2020 while the Vikings only threw the ball 454 times in 2015.
I like Mooney I think he is worth having for the 2021 season but comparing him to Diggs is too generous in my opinion.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Stylistically versus statistically. Mooney’s route running ability reminds me of Diggs. Smooth out of breaks but more of a vertical threat. I am not saying he is as good as Diggs, just that he shows some of the same attributes.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Hmm maybe so. I have not watched him enough to be sure.
I did not see the suddenness in Mooneys breaks like I did with Diggs right away. But maybe It was in a game I didn't see.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I decided I should find some clips on this guy. I came across this which I think is a Diggs like example of Mooney making sudden cuts.
Still looking.
Still looking.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I found a guy who posted video clips of every play that Mooney was targeted in. I watched the first 7 weeks so far.
There is a lot of good but also bad as well. Mooneys hands are not above average in my opinion as he dropped some catchable balls in these games. He also does make some outstanding contested catches along the way. As I watched this I realized these QB were not just throwing prayers up to Robinson. Its how these QB are. Mooney made some great grabs on yolo balls where the DB (some times more than one DB) had just as good a chance to come down with it.
Diggs also good on the contested catches so can see some similarity there. I don't think Mooneys hands are as good as DIggs though. Not yet anyways.
They were both drafted in the 5th round and have similar size and weight profiles. I consider these things to be more coincidental similarities though.
There is a lot to like and I am glad I spent some time watching him.
There is a lot of good but also bad as well. Mooneys hands are not above average in my opinion as he dropped some catchable balls in these games. He also does make some outstanding contested catches along the way. As I watched this I realized these QB were not just throwing prayers up to Robinson. Its how these QB are. Mooney made some great grabs on yolo balls where the DB (some times more than one DB) had just as good a chance to come down with it.
Diggs also good on the contested catches so can see some similarity there. I don't think Mooneys hands are as good as DIggs though. Not yet anyways.
They were both drafted in the 5th round and have similar size and weight profiles. I consider these things to be more coincidental similarities though.
There is a lot to like and I am glad I spent some time watching him.
Helaire-ious
Footballguy
Stud? Slow it down, folks...
zamboni
Footballguy
Agreed - there's still a target hog named Allen Robinson there. Maybe next year if A-Rob leaves.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
In all seriousness, though, if Mooney *doesn't emerge* as the obvious number 2 this year, who would it be standing in his way (or cancelling him out enough)?
Javon Wims (maybe, just maybe)
Kmet (he will get a little TE slice but no TE is going to dominate targets on this team enough to worry about what other WRs can do)
Damien Byrd, Riley Ridley, Marquise Goodwin, Dazz Newsome
I mean honestly who else are they throwing the ball to? In a way that would inhibit Mooney from ascending to a *very* relevant #2 role?
Having looked at this right now I might say bump Monty and D Williams again. Only other takeaway is that I think Wims is actually pretty good and *if* someone stops Mooney it would be him. I am presuming Mooney has the talent and ability otherwise. Maybe not true either but Harmon and others think he can be elite. IDK.
Javon Wims (maybe, just maybe)
Kmet (he will get a little TE slice but no TE is going to dominate targets on this team enough to worry about what other WRs can do)
Damien Byrd, Riley Ridley, Marquise Goodwin, Dazz Newsome
I mean honestly who else are they throwing the ball to? In a way that would inhibit Mooney from ascending to a *very* relevant #2 role?
Having looked at this right now I might say bump Monty and D Williams again. Only other takeaway is that I think Wims is actually pretty good and *if* someone stops Mooney it would be him. I am presuming Mooney has the talent and ability otherwise. Maybe not true either but Harmon and others think he can be elite. IDK.
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Boston
Footballguy
I don’t think Mooney gets enough credit for the numbers he put up as a 5th round rookie playing with subpar QBs…that was a very solid season…if Fields is legit Mooney could turn into a real quality Dynasty asset…when you look at the Bears depth chart he could not be in a better spot…ARob takes the heat as the #1 so that should take pressure off of Mooney who is still developing and after that the cupboard is pretty bare…he is a guy to go after right now because he is probably very affordable but the price could go up on a big way if Fields is legit and that offense can finally have a consistent passing attack.
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Boston
Footballguy
This is very big...the kid seems very athletic so if the mental part of the game is there he has a chance to really turn into something.
Faust
MVP
Hu-Tang Clan
Footballguy
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
That’s probably a no dawg
Late Round Podcast 518 - How Rookie QBs Affect Their Teammates
Interesting study by JJ Zacharisus this summer.
We basically never see multiple pass-catchers be super fantasy relevant from a rookie quarterback's team. Unless you’re betting on AR being a different player than the one we’ve seen 4 of the last 6 years, then it’s probably not happening.
ASIDE - the other 2 years, he played 3 snaps and tore his knee up, them wasn’t the same guy the first year back. In 2015, ‘16, ‘19, and ‘20 he was a 150 target PPR monster. With lousy QBs, every time. Now he’s got the best QB he has ever played with throwing the ball.
Could it happen fir Mooney? Sure, absolutely, anything could happen. This is simply what history has taught us, and we should make probability-based decisions in fantasy football.
But oftentimes people’s reactions to my posting data is to find one exception, as if that one invalidates the 99 examples that say otherwise.
You do you.
_______________
WRT Mooney apart from the Fields/rookie QB factor, he was identified early after last season to be an “obvious breakout candidate.” That was before we knew Dalton and/or Fields would be the QB. LOTS OF GOOD METRICS to support that: high win rate vs man and vs press coverages, ton of air yards to his routes run, the low catch rate and production were mostly due to poor QB play.
Will he outperform his ADP? He should, and anytime a guy drafted outside the top 125 or after WR50 contributes in FF, that’s a win. Will he be a league winner, e.g., a top 24 WR? If AR stays healthy, seems very improbable.
In fact that scenario nearly happened for Luck in his rookie year with Wayne and Hilton as his wideouts. Luck was touted as the absolute best QB prospect in history, Wayne was an established Pro Bowler, and T.Y. was a speedy rookie who was probably just he the PR.
Luck had an outstanding season, Reggie finished WR10, and Hilton was WR31 despite finishing third on the team in targets and only started one game. The 2012 Colts are the only time we've seen a rookie QB support two Top 36 WRs (& not that far from two Top 24 WR.) Think about how all the rookie QBs who have started since 2000 - pretty low probability, right? OTOH, if I owned Mooney, I might tell myself a story that the 2021 Bears are kinda similar to the situation 9 years ago.
It could happen. Improbable, but possible.
Team Chaos
Footballguy
Interesting information Bobby. I drafted Mooney late in both of my leagues, banking on Fields being able to take advantage of Mooney's speed. I'm not ready to throw him in my line up yet, but I am hoping that, after a few starts to get comfortable, Fields and Mooney can start attacking defenses deep.
I'm fairly new to FF. I use metrics as my primary info to evaluate players. I get that you're saying only Robinson OR Mooney will be worthy of being a fantasy contributor. I know that Mooney has outperformed Robinson twice now, and came within 7 yards of doing it a third time. It's happened with Dalton, and with Fields. Robinson's matchup was one of the best in the league this week, and he just barely avoided falling flat. I won't deny his previous seasons of relevancy, it proves that he is a good player.
Good defenses to start the season, then a rookie qb, and that's supposed to account for the poor games. But Mooney had the same conditions, and he posted better stat lines than Robinson twice. Once with the tough defense, another with the rookie qb. I think something is wrong with Robinson, because you can't pretend those 4 seasons don't exist. Do you have any idea what the hell his problem is?
The Frankman
Footballguy
themeistersinger
Footballguy
Is that a normal workout for a WR to catch passes standing on one foot on whatever that contraption was?
He might do better as a #2 without coverage from the best CB. Would you rather have him or another 2nd year WR, Laviska Shenault? Assuming Robinson stays.
Probably Shenault, I think he's more talented in general, and I trust his QB situation more. I might have answered differently before Chark got hurt.
I don't trust the coaching staff from either team, but I think Mooney has skills that are more well developed than Shenault.
BoulderBob
Footballguy
It's pretty obvious Mooney has the goods to be a starting WR in the league, with a few traits that could make him a very good starting WR if he maxes out. Ideally you want him to be a #2 given his size, but guys his size have gone on to do big things so time will tell. He's gonna get his fair share of deep balls from Fields the rest of the way, but I'm thinking he will be boom or average most weeks. Would not want him as my 1 or 2, but he can do some damage in the flex role
ESPN aired a segment on the week 2 pregame show of Jameis on the Bosu ball (contraption) with one foot as well, but he was juggling tennis balls and doing retention and recognition exercises. It looked impressive as hell, then he proceeded to #### the bed a few hours later.
EDIT -
Did some research. Their usage is nearly equal in RR%, snap counts, pretty much all opportunities the team can give them. The difference is Mooney has just 7 more routes run in 4 weeks, 120 to Arob's 113
They differ at (still weeks 1-4) -
being placed in the slot - 49 (41%) arob, 37(29%) mooney
being set wide - 70(59%) arob, 87(68.5%) mooney
Reception rate - 13/23 (56.5%) arob, 17/25 (68%) mooney
They differ more at -
Yards - arob 149 to mooney's 226
They differ significantly at -
Contested catches - 3/11 (27%) arob, 2/4 (50%) mooney
Contested stats discrepancy is likely due to better defenders being on arob. Can anyone confirm?
Also, arob was held out of the preseason for a hamstring. He's not on the injury report, but my guess is he's still not 100%. Has anyone heard anything about that?
Also, when targeted, arob has had 0 interceptions, where as mooney has had 2. I'm not sure that means much tho.
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