When is it time to cut bait? (1 Viewer)

[Chimp Magnet]

This is only the third year I've been in a dynasty league so I'm still figuring things out regarding my roster. I feel I've got a pretty good grasp on what kind of players to grab off the waiver wire (or blind bid in our case). But I'm still working on how long to keep a player that you're waiting to hit for.

My example is Brian Robiskie. I was pretty high on him last year and used a 2nd round pick in my rookie draft on him. But he did substantially less than jack squat last year. There have been rumblings of him finally pulling this together and making a run at the starting line up. Plus there is no real competition or major player blocking his access to the starting lineup. However he has proven nothing yet. So I'm debating on cutting him and taking a swing at a player like Blair White, Naanee, or Sutton. But I'm fearful of cutting a guy because of the whole Rule of Three regarding WRs.

Which brings me to the original question. How long do you hold a guy hoping he pans out? At what point do you say "it's never gonna happen" and cut the guy?

 

[Cookiemonster]

I usually cut bait about 2 weeks too soon. That said, Robiske was supposed to be the most pro-ready in year 1. If he did nothing in year 1, I'd be guessing that his peers are catching up or pulling ahead. The other deal is that it's CLEVELAND. Mass, Rob, Cribbs and a bunch of never-was. I'd be interested in Naanee with VJax and Floyd on one-year tenders. A #2 WR in SD should be worth more than a #1 in Cleveland for at least the next couple/few years.

 

[Mister CIA]

I tend to hold onto guys I draft much longer than I do waiver wire acquisitions. It's a mixed bag result, and no matter the lessons learned, I can't help but hold onto players longer than I should .. except RBs. I'll cut bait on a RB much sooner than I will other positions - which makes sense because RBs require much less development; much easier to develop an opinion (save Kevin Jones ... that was a mistake).

 

[Symbius]

I tend to hold onto guys I draft much longer than I do waiver wire acquisitions. It's a mixed bag result, and no matter the lessons learned, I can't help but hold onto players longer than I should .. except RBs. I'll cut bait on a RB much sooner than I will other positions - which makes sense because RBs require much less development; much easier to develop an opinion (save Kevin Jones ... that was a mistake).

I cut bait and ran away on Cedric Benson, simply dropping him after the Bears did and that seems to have backfired a bit as well.So really there isn't a golden rule to follow for that.

 

[Mister CIA]

I tend to hold onto guys I draft much longer than I do waiver wire acquisitions. It's a mixed bag result, and no matter the lessons learned, I can't help but hold onto players longer than I should .. except RBs. I'll cut bait on a RB much sooner than I will other positions - which makes sense because RBs require much less development; much easier to develop an opinion (save Kevin Jones ... that was a mistake).

I cut bait and ran away on Cedric Benson, simply dropping him after the Bears did and that seems to have backfired a bit as well.So really there isn't a golden rule to follow for that.

Exception to the rule I think. I too cut Benson at one point and there was no rush from the rest of the league to pick him up. In fact, I think he was dropped multiple times before he deserved to be kept.I think Laurence Maroney is at a similar crossroad this season. Example, drop one, Maroney or Garcon? Most of us keep Garcon, but Maroney could be the next Benson.Am I still on topic? ...Oh, I'd drop Robiskie.

 

[coolnerd]

There is no exact answer you really have to look at talent and situation on a case by case basis. Talent should win when there is a question as situation change dramatically in a moment's notice. One key for me is to make sure that even when I am high on player to make sure that the organization is showing faith in its player by its words and actions. Plenty of times you will hear a coach talk about its young WRs, but they are constantly bringing in mediocore veterans to challenge to guy(BTW Cleveland is not doing that). It is not what really want to hear, but experience is the best teachers for this type of thing and even then you are still always asking this question.

 

[JohnnyU]

Ah...the million dollar question. Let's just say you have to weigh talent with situation and roster size, and keep informed on that situation when there are rumblings that it could change. If you really believe in a guy you have to be patient with him until he at least gets his shot. Of course any great deal that falls in your lap has to be considered. You also have to take into consideration injuries and off the field issues with the player in question. I don't know too many owners that will sit on a player who's in a bad situation and has off the field issues or significant injuries, regardless of talent.

Good luck on Sundays,

Chuck

ETA - Added roster size per abrecher's post. Hell, that's very important.

 

[AB in DC]

Depends on how big your roster is.

But ultimately, the only answer is to be as objective as you can be about the players on the roster and on the waiver wire. That way you're never asking "keep player A or cut bait" -- you're asking "keep player A or drop him for player B". In other words, don't get too attached to your player, but don't get so annoyed about his lack of production that you just drop him for someone even more useless.

So don't be "fearful" of dropping Robiskie...but do you really think that Naanee is a better prospect??

If you were drafting today, and your choices were Robiskie and the three other players you mention, which would you pick?

 

[az_prof]

There is no hard fast rule: it will vary depending on how highly drafted the player was, his position, his team situation. In general, I think we know what we have with RBs much sooner than WRs. Benson is an exception, but most RBs show what they have within first two years. You shouldn't draft a rookie WR in the first round if you aren't prepared to wait three seasons. Exception: devastating injury. In Robiskie's case, look at his situation. Who was his QB? What kind of offense did Cleveland run? Did he really have a chance last season? I would give him at least one more season. It isn't like any other WR on that team is a sure fire star and Delhomme, bad as he is, is an upgrade at QB.

There was a thread about people's biggest mistakes in dynasty and one of the most common is giving up on players too soon. If you did a good job of scouting players and believe in your picks you should give RBs at least two seasons and WRs at least 3 if they are first or second round picks. If you don't draft well, it might be a better strategy to just trade your picks for players before the draft when pick value is high.

 

[renesauz]

There is no hard fast rule: it will vary depending on how highly drafted the player was, his position, his team situation. In general, I think we know what we have with RBs much sooner than WRs. Benson is an exception, but most RBs show what they have within first two years. You shouldn't draft a rookie WR in the first round if you aren't prepared to wait three seasons. Exception: devastating injury. In Robiskie's case, look at his situation. Who was his QB? What kind of offense did Cleveland run? Did he really have a chance last season? I would give him at least one more season. It isn't like any other WR on that team is a sure fire star and Delhomme, bad as he is, is an upgrade at QB.There was a thread about people's biggest mistakes in dynasty and one of the most common is giving up on players too soon. If you did a good job of scouting players and believe in your picks you should give RBs at least two seasons and WRs at least 3 if they are first or second round picks. If you don't draft well, it might be a better strategy to just trade your picks for players before the draft when pick value is high.

If you believe in Robiskie (I never did), then it's too soon to cut bait. Generally speaking though, it really is on a case by case basis. RARELY should a highly regarded young WR be dropped before he's had at least two full years in the league, and if he's shown any kind of spark at that point...he should normally have another half season.Robiskie is an interesting case though, because many dynasty leaguers were NOT high on him at draft time. Many of us felt (and still feel) his upside was very limited. He was highly regarded and drafted because he was very safe in NFL terms...he was not going to bust. Personally...I'd have no problem dropping him right now except in the very deepest leagues.

 

[shader]

How big are your rosters? I have one league with very small bench room in which keeping Robiskie would never be an option. I have another league where you wouldn't dare drop him because of the large bench size.

In general though, if you liked him alot, then don't ever give up after one year.

 

[shader]

Another good analogy I always use is Koren Robinson vs Andre Johnson. I LOVED both of these guys coming out of college. Both had "false" breakout years in year 2. As it turns out, Andre's wasn't false, and Koren's was. I hung onto both of them. But even after year FIVE, Andre had shown major flashes but never really put it together. Who knew his 6th and 7th years would be as phenomenal as they were? Koren never did much after his solid year 2 and decent year 3, (though personal problems might have been more of the reason for his downfall, not his talent)

I guess the point is that each case is different, but if you really like a guy, sometimes it takes upwards of 5 years for a guy to really hit his potential.

 

[Chimp Magnet]

I'm not necessarily looking at adding Naanee specifically. I have a list of ten players I'm looking at and I pulled three from that list.

The idea of would I draft another player over him is a little hard to do due to there being more press around newer guys compared to him. But I get your point.

We have 27 man rosters. No IDP. My sig should give an idea of who my probable starters are. 1 qb. 2 rb. 3 wr/te. 1 k. 1 d.

 

[GreatLakesMike]

I'm not necessarily looking at adding Naanee specifically. I have a list of ten players I'm looking at and I pulled three from that list. The idea of would I draft another player over him is a little hard to do due to there being more press around newer guys compared to him. But I get your point. We have 27 man rosters. No IDP. My sig should give an idea of who my probable starters are. 1 qb. 2 rb. 3 wr/te. 1 k. 1 d.

I'd hang onto Robiskie. You can afford to carry dead weight with 27 man rosters. Also, Robiskie got in Mangini's doghouse last year. Reasons have varied from Mangini being upset that Robiskie held out, to Robiskie not wanting to play special teams. It "appears" that the two have worked things out, so at least give Robiskie a year to see how he looks on the field. Back to the topic at hand.... I think AZ's post was pretty good advice. I like to see my WR's through their 3rd season and TE's through season 2. The only time I drop a draft pick before then, is if another owner drops a guy that I like better. If you're considering dropping Robiskie, put him on the trade block first. I imagine that you can at least grab a 3rd round pick for him.

 

[Instinctive]

I'll hold onto high upside guys with no limit. For example, I have one league with Roddy/Sidney/Crabtree/DevinThomas and now Dez. It's a start 3 WR, so I'll be holding onto Dez and Thomas for a really long time. It's not like I need a nother starter, so I have the luxury to sit and let them develop (unless I can trade a guy for a RB)

I'm still sitting on James Hardy because the rosters ar ebig enough with no IDP that there's nobody int he wire I'd rther have. James Hardy looks almost exactly like Sidney Rice did last year...couple years in league, disappointing, knee injuries, but big-time talent when he was drafted.

Unless you need to grab a guy, what's the difference between one high-upside player and another?

Your roste rin dynasty should be:

A) Starters - preferably studs, but at least consistent

B) 1-3 Bye Week/Bench guys who are always solid

C) A couple guys that will be studs if they hit, and you can afford to wait

With ideal roster size, each position will look like that. a Stud QB, a bye week fill in, a high upside guy (recent examples Kolb, Henne, Leinart, Freeman, Stafford, Sanchez)

 

[Ray_T]

This is only the third year I've been in a dynasty league so I'm still figuring things out regarding my roster. I feel I've got a pretty good grasp on what kind of players to grab off the waiver wire (or blind bid in our case). But I'm still working on how long to keep a player that you're waiting to hit for. My example is Brian Robiskie. I was pretty high on him last year and used a 2nd round pick in my rookie draft on him. But he did substantially less than jack squat last year. There have been rumblings of him finally pulling this together and making a run at the starting line up. Plus there is no real competition or major player blocking his access to the starting lineup. However he has proven nothing yet. So I'm debating on cutting him and taking a swing at a player like Blair White, Naanee, or Sutton. But I'm fearful of cutting a guy because of the whole Rule of Three regarding WRs. Which brings me to the original question. How long do you hold a guy hoping he pans out? At what point do you say "it's never gonna happen" and cut the guy?

I always play on the best talent available.the big difference in Dynasty is you need to have a succession plan. It's all fine & good to keep prospects on your roster, so long as they fit into the plan. if you have no other good WR prospects, and a solid lineup, then by all means keep him. where you run into issues is when you have to pick & choose who to keep. Robiskie is a player with some talent, there is no question about that..... but he is on a team that has been less than good on offense for a number of years with the exception of the one year where Anderson caught lightning in a bottle. I also dont see a high end QB tossing him the ball. So to me, this will limit his upside for the time being. I am thinking that you will look at a player whose development will be 1-2 years slower than normal because of the above situation. looking at your lineup, I'd say you have a lot of players at WR so it's not a big deal to drop him.good luck

 

[King of the Wolfies]

i usually allocate a couple spots for players that i consider having potential. players i've stashed were celek, MSW, and Laurent Robinson. Currently Robiskie and Naanee hold those spots. i hold them as long as i dont need their roster sport, or if they start failing far down on their NFL DC with no hope of climbing.