Bill Barnwell once wrote an article for Grantland where he identified trends from the previous NFL season and tried to guess at their analogues for the upcoming one. I thought it would be fun to make similar guesses focused specifically on fantasy. Yes, some of the comparisons are facile, and as with stocks, past returns are not predictive of future performance. Anyway, here are a few off the top of my head:
- Defense that makes a leap after hiring proven coordinator
2015: Denver
- Potential 2016 analogue: Eagles
- Take this one to the bank. Schwartz may not have the track record of Wade Phillips, but he's built very strong defenses for both Tennessee and Buffalo (although, paradoxically enough, Detroit's D mostly stunk when he was HC). They also have Jordan Hicks back -- the D fell off a cliff after he got hurt last year. And as an added bonus, Philly faces Cleveland in Week 1, which makes them a great streaming option if nothing else.
- Second-year RB who blew up in the second half of his rookie year and is now a first-round pick
2015: CJ Anderson, Jeremy Hill
- Potential 2016 analogues: David Johnson, Thomas Rawls
- I'm less confident in this one, especially with respect to Johnson, and my worries with Rawls have more to do with his injuries. But I'd be lying if I said last year didn't make me a little scared to take DJ in the first
- Second-year QB primed to make the leap to elite fantasy production
2015: Bortles
- Potential 2016 analogue: Winston
- I still don't think Bortles is a great NFL QB, and his numbers last year may have been fluky and unrepeatable, but obviously his redraft owners didn't care. I think Winston's leap will be more sustainable.
- Teammate of QB from previous example who will come along for the ride
2015: Allen Robinson
- 2016: Mike Evans
- Not a perfect comparison, since Robinson did it in his second season and Evans has already put up two solid years' worth of production. But I think because of his drops and lack of TDs last year, Evans still isn't considered in the WR1 conversation. My guess is that changes after this year. (And for the record, I'm not suggesting that Bortles carried Robinson to WR1 status; if anything it was the other way around. I just meant that if a QB is putting up elite numbers, there's a good chance there'll be a strong WR1 on the team as well).
- Second-year QB who will be held back by his system
2015: Bridgewater
- Potential 2016 analogue: Mariota
- Exotic smashmouth. 'nuff said.
- QB destined to regress after unsustainable INT rate
2013: Nick Foles
- Potential 2016 analogue: Cousins
- OK, I cheated and took an older example. But man, am I getting a bad vibe on Cousins this year. I'll grant that he has better weapons than Foles did, and as a Washington homer I hope I'm wrong, but even as a late-round option I'm going to be wary of drafting him.