What are some 2015 trends that could repeat in 2016? (1 Viewer)

[Biabreakable]

Great data...and I've seen you point this out in a few threads, which obviously is spot on.

But...does this change for a league that allows you to determine what position accounts for the greater %?  Such as start 2RB-2WR-1Flex?

This changes the baseline compared to a 2RB/3WR Flex league.

You could set the baseline as RB 24 and WR 24 (worst starter) and because the baseline at WR is higher than it would be in a league that requires you start 3 WR, RB and WR should be pretty equal value in standard scoring formats.

Another way you could set the baseline is at RB 30 and WR 30. This would assume that half the teams in your league will start 3 RB and the other half will start 3 WR. As the positions are pretty balanced, that baseline seems fine as well.

Or you could set baseline at RB 36 and WR 36 which will cover all possible scenarios of all teams starting 3 RB or all teams starting 3 WR.

Last season RB 24 scored 124.6 points RB 30 scored 116.6 points RB 36 scored 103.4 points.

WR 24 scored 142.4 points WR 30 scored 124.4 points WR 36 scored 113.7 points.

You then subtract the baseline from every players projected points to determine the VBD number which should tell you if a particular RB or WR is more valuable in a relative sense.

 

[zftcg]

I'll throw in another one: Talented rookie WR who everyone ignores because of injury.

• 2014: Beckham
  
• 2016 comp: Perriman
  

I don't really think this will happen -- Beckham is a generational talent, and a pulled hammy is much different from a partially torn ACL -- but it's definitely something to keep an eye on, especially if, as now appears likely, Perriman is out there by Week 1. He was one of the most highly touted WRs coming out of last year's draft, he's got an Eli-level competent QB who can get him the ball, and Baltimore's WR corps is filled with question marks. Might be worth a last-round flier, or at least worth keeping tabs on if he goes undrafted.

 

[Ilov80s]

I'll throw in another one: Talented rookie WR who everyone ignores because of injury.

• 2014: Beckham
  
• 2016 comp: Perriman
  

I don't really think this will happen -- Beckham is a generational talent, and a pulled hammy is much different from a partially torn ACL -- but it's definitely something to keep an eye on, especially if, as now appears likely, Perriman is out there by Week 1. He was one of the most highly touted WRs coming out of last year's draft, he's got an Eli-level competent QB who can get him the ball, and Baltimore's WR corps is filled with question marks. Might be worth a last-round flier, or at least worth keeping tabs on if he goes undrafted.

You could throw in Doctson. Don't need to even draft him, just keep an eye open on the WW. Again, a major longshot, but maybe even a Keenan Allen rookie year like impact. 

 

[zftcg]

You could throw in Doctson. Don't need to even draft him, just keep an eye open on the WW. Again, a major longshot, but maybe even a Keenan Allen rookie year like impact. 

True, although he has way more competition for targets. But yeah, other than Reed, there's no one in that offense who has to get fed. If Doctson is healthy and as good as advertised, he can beat out DJax, Garcon, Crowder, etc. in the pecking order.

 

[Ilov80s]

True, although he has way more competition for targets. But yeah, other than Reed, there's no one in that offense who has to get fed. If Doctson is healthy and as good as advertised, he can beat out DJax, Garcon, Crowder, etc. in the pecking order.

His competition is Garcon. Nobody is taking DJax's role because there is nobody on the team that can. As much as people in fantasy have tired on Jackson because he's become boring and predictable, there are still few WRs in the league that stretch the field like he can. If you look at the splits for Cousins with and without Jackson, he goes from turnover prone game manager to goat. With Jackson, Cousins numbers were insane 70% completion rate. 8.67 yards per attempt (which is like peak Drew Brees type YPA) and a 3.5 TD to Int ratio. I am sure there were other factors (like SoS, Reed missed 2 games when DJax was out and Cousins was extremely bad in those, etc.) However, the fact is DJax is an integral part of making the Skins offense go. 

 

[zftcg]

His competition is Garcon. Nobody is taking DJax's role because there is nobody on the team that can. As much as people in fantasy have tired on Jackson because he's become boring and predictable, there are still few WRs in the league that stretch the field like he can. If you look at the splits for Cousins with and without Jackson, he goes from turnover prone game manager to goat. With Jackson, Cousins numbers were insane 70% completion rate. 8.67 yards per attempt (which is like peak Drew Brees type YPA) and a 3.5 TD to Int ratio. I am sure there were other factors (like SoS, Reed missed 2 games when DJax was out and Cousins was extremely bad in those, etc.) However, the fact is DJax is an integral part of making the Skins offense go. 

Right. I didn't mean to imply the DJax (or any of the other WRs) sucked or weren't an important part of what they want to do on offense. My point was that if Doctson emerges as a OBJ-level talent, he has a pretty clear path to WR1 that doesn't require an injury to anyone else (they way it does for, say, Dorsett or KWhite). And actually, in that case DJax's ability to take the top off a D would prove pretty complementary.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

This thread stuck in my head a few times during the season, so I decided to dig it up and check whether the predictions we made were as accurate as I half-remembered them being. Let's see:

Bill Barnwell once wrote an article for Grantland where he identified trends from the previous NFL season and tried to guess at their analogues for the upcoming one. I thought it would be fun to make similar guesses focused specifically on fantasy. Yes, some of the comparisons are facile, and as with stocks, past returns are not predictive of future performance. Anyway, here are a few off the top of my head:

1. Defense that makes a leap after hiring proven coordinator
   
   • 
     2015: Denver
     
   • Potential 2016 analogue: Eagles
     
   • Take this one to the bank. Schwartz may not have the track record of Wade Phillips, but he's built very strong defenses for both Tennessee and Buffalo (although, paradoxically enough, Detroit's D mostly stunk when he was HC). They also have Jordan Hicks back -- the D fell off a cliff after he got hurt last year. And as an added bonus, Philly faces Cleveland in Week 1, which makes them a great streaming option if nothing else.
     
   • Verdict: Eagles finished only 12th and 13th in points and yards allowed, but 5 DST TDs were enough to get them solidly into the top 5-10 range. We'll call this one a win.
     
2. Second-year RB who blew up in the second half of his rookie year and is now a first-round pick
   • 
     2015: CJ Anderson, Jeremy Hill
     
   • Potential 2016 analogues: David Johnson, Thomas Rawls
     
   • I'm less confident in this one, especially with respect to Johnson, and my worries with Rawls have more to do with his injuries. But I'd be lying if I said last year didn't make me a little scared to take DJ in the first
     
   • Verdict: I avoided DJ last August for exactly this reason.   2,100+ scrimmage yards; 191 VBD in standard leagues, the highest single-season total since 2010 Arian Foster - and that's in standard leagues. As in, before you count his EIGHTY catches! He's, ummm, he's pretty good.   
     
   • On the plus side of the ledger, Rawls put up a whopping 445 scrimmage yards and 3.2 YPC. Bum. 
     
3. Second-year QB primed to make the leap to elite fantasy production
   • 
     2015: Bortles
     
   • Potential 2016 analogue: Winston
     
   • I still don't think Bortles is a great NFL QB, and his numbers last year may have been fluky and unrepeatable, but obviously his redraft owners didn't care. I think Winston's leap will be more sustainable.
     
   • Verdict: "Elite" may be a stretch, but Famous Jameis did finish QB8 despite improving his accuracy and TD/INT ratio only marginally. Why was that, do you suppose ...
     
4. Teammate of QB from previous example who will come along for the ride
   • 
     2015: Allen Robinson
     
   • 2016: Mike Evans
     
   • Not a perfect comparison, since Robinson did it in his second season and Evans has already put up two solid years' worth of production. But I think because of his drops and lack of TDs last year, Evans still isn't considered in the WR1 conversation. My guess is that changes after this year. (And for the record, I'm not suggesting that Bortles carried Robinson to WR1 status; if anything it was the other way around. I just meant that if a QB is putting up elite numbers, there's a good chance there'll be a strong WR1 on the team as well).
     
   • ... oh, right, this guy.  Other than mixing up who was taking whom along for the ride, spot on here. 96/1,321/12 and a WR3 finish (that propelled me to my first FBG SL title ) I'm giving serious thought to taking him WR1 overall in non-PPR next season.
     
5. Second-year QB who will be held back by his system
   • 
     2015: Bridgewater
     
   • Potential 2016 analogue: Mariota
     
   • Exotic smashmouth. 'nuff said.
     
   • Verdict: Finished QB12 but took a long, strange path to get there - he was a borderline top-5 guy before the bye, then flamed out to the tune of 10.5 PPG in the fantasy playoffs, or 1 PPG behind Jared Goff . That last piece seems like it's important enough to merit half-credit here.
     
6. QB destined to regress after unsustainable INT rate
   • 
     2013: Nick Foles
     
   • Potential 2016 analogue: Cousins
     
   • OK, I cheated and took an older example. But man, am I getting a bad vibe on Cousins this year. I'll grant that he has better weapons than Foles did, and as a Washington homer I hope I'm wrong, but even as a late-round option I'm going to be wary of drafting him.
     
   • Verdict: Safe to say Mr. You Like That got himself pai-i-id this coming offseason. 3rd in passing yards, 4th in ANY/A and a QB5 fantasy season. Ehh, you can't win 'em all.
     

Any others?

8. Regression of Top QB back to their prior two year normal

• 2015: Luck
  
• Potential 2016: Newton
  
• Luck averaged 21 ppg in 2013 and 2012.  In 2014 he averaged 30 ppg and then regressed back to near his normal at 23 ppg in 2015.
  Cam averaged 23 and 22 ppg in 2014 and 2013 respectivly.  In 2015 he averaged 29 ppg.  I could see a regression back to around 24 to 25 ppg.  
  
• Verdict: How's 23.7 PPG sound? He ranked QB18 overall despite missing only one game, and amazingly, barely even cracked the top 5 QBs in rushing yards. A bold call that was 100% accurate.
  

9.  RB who had great success for a couple years is then drug down by horrible coaching and crappy team rebounds to have a great season.

• 2015: Doug Martin
  
• 2016: Demarco Murray
  
• Martin was written off for dead last year at this time, but under the new coaching staff he rebounded with a great season.  Murray is leaving some horrible coaching to a team with a coach that is saying they want to run with him.  
  
• Verdict: 1,287/9 rushing and 377/3 receiving, good for an RB5 finish, and rendered genetic man-child freak Derrick Henry an afterthought. So, ummm, @abbottjamesr ... do you have a newsletter?
  

And I couldn't resist a little bit of  with my own predictions:

7. Young WR so widely expected to "make the leap" that he winds up getting drafted close to his ceiling

• 2015: Charles Johnson
  
• Potential 2016: DeVante Parker
  

Parker was banged up last season and again this summer, and even if healthy can't be expected to maintain 19 YPC on increased volume from a QB as shaky with the deep ball as Tannehill. And his 2015 late-season run of 6 games was excellent, but eerily reminiscent of Johnson's 2014. Add it all up and I'm more likely to take a flier on him in 2017 as a post-hype sleeper than in 2016 ahead of guys like Hurns, Lockett, and Marvin Jones.

Verdict: Finished WR50 / WR51 in PPR and standard, and WR3 on his own team behind Landry and Stills. Five games of 5 fantasy points or less. Drafted at his ceiling, performed somewhere in the sub-basement.  Fire up the 2017 post-hype sleeper train!

10. Last-round flier who backs into a top-30 season by accumulating targets on a bad team

• 2015: Kamar Aiken
  
• Potential 2016: Rishard Matthews
  

Hey, guess what team led the entire NFL in passing attempts last season? Well, actually, you probably can guess, since I put the question under the 2015 comp - but did the Ravens intend to come out and take the league by storm with Son of Fun'n'Gun? No, they threw a lot because they were behind a lot. And Aiken was the beneficiary, thanks to some ability to get open, some injuries ahead of him, and a lot of 31-14 4th-quarter deficits. Matthews has name recognition and draft pedigree similar to Aiken's (i.e. virtually none), but (like Aiken in '14) graded out well in limited usage on FO's DYAR and other advanced metrics. Plus, he was thought enough of to command a decent FA contract from the Titans. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see him parlay a 4-12 Titans season into 125 targets and borderline fantasy-starter numbers at a WR62 ADP.

Verdict: If by "borderline fantasy-starter" you mean the 19th-overall fantasy WR with a 65/945/9 line, then yes. Yes, he was.  (I found at least three threads where I pimped this guy before the season started, so thanks, Rishard, for keeping the egg off my face.)

 

[zftcg]

This thread stuck in my head a few times during the season, so I decided to dig it up and check whether the predictions we made were as accurate as I half-remembered them being. Let's see:

And I couldn't resist a little bit of  with my own predictions:

Wow, thanks for resuscitating this thread. Yeah, Evans was a big hit, but David Johnson was a huge miss with real-world consequences: I got spooked and drafted Lamar Miller over him in the first round, and then ended up losing in the championship to the DJ owner (while Miller sat out with an injury).

Also, @abbottjamesr clearly has a more effective crystal ball than I do, because his predictions were spot on.

 

[zftcg]

The veteran QB resurgence:

In 2012, Philip Rivers had a very bad year by his standards.  Less than 3700 yards, 7 YPA and a 26/15 TD:INT ratio.  In 2013, FFCalc had his draft position at #181 as QB24.  Was being drafted behind EJ Manuel.  Went on to throw for close to 4500 yards and a 32/11 TD:INT ratio.

2015 parallel: Matt Ryan

Another veteran QB being written off as damaged goods...his 2015 was extremely unimpressive; 21/16 TD:INT ratio.  But he's in Year 2 of an offensive system with a reinforced OL (Alex Mack) and Julio Jones at his peak.  He's being drafted as QB19.  You can get him in Round 11/12

I stand corrected. Sorry, @abbottjamesr, Immaletyoufinish, but @TheDirtyWord had the best prediction OF ALL TIME!!!!!! 

What's funny is that Ryan was such an afterthought, none of us even bothered to agree or disagree with this post. We just skipped over it.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

I stand corrected. Sorry, @abbottjamesr, Immaletyoufinish, but @TheDirtyWord had the best prediction OF ALL TIME!!!!!! 

What's funny is that Ryan was such an afterthought, none of us even bothered to agree or disagree with this post. We just skipped over it.

Ryan almost single-handedly won me the 32-team ABLC league in the Mock Drafts forum (as the 200th overall pick). You'd think I would have paid closer attention. 

And this is far from @TheDirtyWord's first spooky-accurate prediction - he's usually good for a couple each offseason. If he's not getting paid to write by some fantasy site out there, he oughta be.

 

[Biabreakable]

I stand corrected. Sorry, @abbottjamesr, Immaletyoufinish, but @TheDirtyWord had the best prediction OF ALL TIME!!!!!! 

What's funny is that Ryan was such an afterthought, none of us even bothered to agree or disagree with this post. We just skipped over it.

I had Ryan in 2015 where he was a disappointment with an excellent schedule I might add (why I was taking him)  so he was dead to me.

 

[Biabreakable]

Ryan almost single-handedly won me the 32-team ABLC league in the Mock Drafts forum (as the 200th overall pick). You'd think I would have paid closer attention. 

And this is far from @TheDirtyWord's first spooky-accurate prediction - he's usually good for a couple each offseason. If he's not getting paid to write by some fantasy site out there, he oughta be.

He makes pretty excellent projections.