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The Unofficial Joe Biden Recession Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter NorvilleBarnes
- Start date
Careful what you say. CNN says you're racist:
https://web.archive.org/web/20220701124131/https:/www.cnn.com/2022/06/30/economy/recession-economists-nber/index.html
https://web.archive.org/web/20220701124131/https:/www.cnn.com/2022/06/30/economy/recession-economists-nber/index.html
jm192
Footballguy
Ah yes. Because race is a qualification to be an economist. Identity politics to the max right there.
BladeRunner
Footballguy
Yeah, but look at the good side - we don't have mean tweets. It's all worth it, right? RIGHT?????
sho nuff
Footballguy
Thats exactly what that thread was about. Yeah…nothing disingenuous with posts like this at all.
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
There was nothing disingenuous with his post.
The Big Donkey
Footballguy
"Not candid or sincere, typically by pretending that one knows less about something than one really does."
not seeing that in these postings.
not seeing that in these postings.
The General
Footballguy
Well that sucks. I don't remember how I voted in that poll but pretty certain I didn't want a recession but people made some compelling reasons at the time for their votes.
I say we'd be in a recession regardless of who was President but you never know. I am certain Biden, or any sitting Prez, cannot win again (I don't think the will run again) if we are in one in 2024.
I say we'd be in a recession regardless of who was President but you never know. I am certain Biden, or any sitting Prez, cannot win again (I don't think the will run again) if we are in one in 2024.
sho nuff
Footballguy
The no more mean tweets stuff is definitely disingenuous…as is the bogus portrayal of what that poll of Trump vs recession actually all said in the responses.
BladeRunner
Footballguy
Unfortunately, you can't say that with any certainty.
We hold the current POTUS responsible for current events, right or wrong. Just like when we praise them for good things that happen during their term.
djmich
Footballguy
The General
Footballguy
That's where the "but you never know" part comes into play
I agree it would take some pretty crazy circumstances for a Prez to be re-elected in a recession.
sho nuff
Footballguy
He isn’t getting re-elected and he shouldn’t even be on the ticketThat's where the "but you never know" part comes into play
I agree it would take some pretty crazy circumstances for a Prez to be re-elected in a recession.
The General
Footballguy
The General
Footballguy
Dickies
Footballguy
Nobody voted that they "wanted" a recession, they voted that they'd prefer a recession to Trump getting re-elected. I think Trump's actions on J6 validate my vote. We've had recessions and high gas prices before, we'll have them again, and we will get through them. I value democracy.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
We would have had Trump and a recession. That said, if Joe had his way we'd be at risk for a depression.
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The General
Footballguy
That would be very bad.
I do wonder if we had a lie detector on people in DC if asked the same question what we’d see.
GoBirds
Footballguy
But come on, that’s all they do is make excuses for their boy Biden. Dead end witch hunts and endless excuses….the Left.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Stealthycat
Footballguy
83 million Biden voters got what they wanted
The Z Machine
Footballguy
ZADO
Footballguy
IN A NUTSHELL BIDEN OWNS IT
It’s important to understand the broader context. Inflation has been happening across the world, caused by pandemic-related disruptions, and exacerbated this year by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s Covid-19 lockdowns. Even before the American Rescue Plan passed, “the seeds for a high-inflation environment were already planted,” said Marc Goldwein of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
But regarding the exact amount of inflation, the US stands out. And it started to stand out shortly after President Biden took office.
From 2021 onward, what’s known as “core inflation” has been significantly higher in the US than in other wealthy countries. (Core inflation is a common metric that excludes food and energy prices, which tend to be volatile, to try to get a better sense of general price levels and inflation in an economy.)
A recent article published by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco makes this point. The authors — Òscar Jordà, Celeste Liu, Fernanda Nechio, and Fabián Rivera-Reyes — compare core inflation in the US to the average of eight wealthy countries (the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Canada, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and Finland). Before 2021, these and the US had similar inflation levels. Then the US’s shot up.
It’s true that the American Rescue Plan wasn’t the primary cause of today’s inflation. But if inflation was always going to be a problem, then it’s important to avoid policies that could make it a much worse problem.
In retrospect, it seems that Democrats simply didn’t take this seriously enough back in early 2021. They wrongly concluded that a stimulus far in excess of what models said was necessary was the less risky option. They thought they were still in the “money printer go brrr” era, where there was less pressure to be judicious about where that money was going — so instead of targeting help to those who needed it, they sent hundreds of billions of dollars to well-off Americans and states doing just fine, for political reasons.
Now, Democrats had many good intentions in drafting the American Rescue Plan — they wanted to help people and avert economic pain. And they had some successes, like low unemployment and strong GDP growth. But wages haven’t kept up with prices. And if this results in significantly worse economic problems in 2022, 2023, and 2024, not to mention electoral consequences for Democrats, it’s unclear whether it would have been worth it.
https://www.vox.com/23036340/biden-american-rescue-plan-inflation
It’s important to understand the broader context. Inflation has been happening across the world, caused by pandemic-related disruptions, and exacerbated this year by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s Covid-19 lockdowns. Even before the American Rescue Plan passed, “the seeds for a high-inflation environment were already planted,” said Marc Goldwein of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
But regarding the exact amount of inflation, the US stands out. And it started to stand out shortly after President Biden took office.
From 2021 onward, what’s known as “core inflation” has been significantly higher in the US than in other wealthy countries. (Core inflation is a common metric that excludes food and energy prices, which tend to be volatile, to try to get a better sense of general price levels and inflation in an economy.)
A recent article published by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco makes this point. The authors — Òscar Jordà, Celeste Liu, Fernanda Nechio, and Fabián Rivera-Reyes — compare core inflation in the US to the average of eight wealthy countries (the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Canada, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and Finland). Before 2021, these and the US had similar inflation levels. Then the US’s shot up.
It’s true that the American Rescue Plan wasn’t the primary cause of today’s inflation. But if inflation was always going to be a problem, then it’s important to avoid policies that could make it a much worse problem.
In retrospect, it seems that Democrats simply didn’t take this seriously enough back in early 2021. They wrongly concluded that a stimulus far in excess of what models said was necessary was the less risky option. They thought they were still in the “money printer go brrr” era, where there was less pressure to be judicious about where that money was going — so instead of targeting help to those who needed it, they sent hundreds of billions of dollars to well-off Americans and states doing just fine, for political reasons.
Now, Democrats had many good intentions in drafting the American Rescue Plan — they wanted to help people and avert economic pain. And they had some successes, like low unemployment and strong GDP growth. But wages haven’t kept up with prices. And if this results in significantly worse economic problems in 2022, 2023, and 2024, not to mention electoral consequences for Democrats, it’s unclear whether it would have been worth it.
https://www.vox.com/23036340/biden-american-rescue-plan-inflation
The General
Footballguy
Punxsutawney Phil
Footballguy
Remember in 2021 when the Whitehouse sent out a tweet saying the average cost of a cookout was down 16 cents? I wonder what they will be tweeting this year.
https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1410709115333234691?t=GrSGLf4DbzE72yWlME83uA&s=19
https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1410709115333234691?t=GrSGLf4DbzE72yWlME83uA&s=19
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I like how they picked a bunch of random items that don’t really even go together and call it a cookout.
GoBirds
Footballguy
GoBirds
Footballguy
Sadly letting their unhealthy Trump obsession due to an election not going their way take priority over what’s best for everyday Americans. Todays pain is on their hands.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
I think this country would be worse off under Trump. Sometimes the economy isn't the most important thing. Restoring some semblance of normalcy to our executive branch was vital. Trump was corrosive to our republic. His actions after the election were proof of that and the need to get him away from the levers of power. That was what was best for everyday Americans.
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Coach Morris Buttermaker
Footballguy
Biden is on pace for more executive orders than Trump, most of which are unconstitutional. He's made a mess of the executive office. I won't even mention he screws up every speech he makes with incoherent statements or outright lies that have to be corrected by his staff.
moleculo
Footballguy
IMO, the bolded is more of about dysfunctional congress than the president.
GoBirds
Footballguy
That’s all liberal rhetoric, Biden is completely non existent and has let things get out of control. Trump cared about small businesses and Americans, it’s not even close.
Stealthycat
Footballguy
to get a socialist nation where the Govt controls everything .... isn't what's happening right now part of what has to happen ?
The General
Footballguy
Ignorance is bliss, eh? Keep ignoring it because it’s your guy.Yeah, cause your got him this time!!!!
Inflation does hurt businesses, big and small, so Biden shares some blame for that. But 2021 was a record year for small business creation, and the Scott plan for a tax on the middle class is a tax on small business.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rhettbuttle/2022/05/06/three-key-takeaways-from-the-white-house-small-business-boom-report/
BladeRunner
Footballguy
Why does he only get PARTIAL blame for inflation, but FULL credit for record small business creation?
As current POTUS he gets all of the credit as well as all of the blame because that's how we do it here.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
GoBirds
Footballguy
Nothing to ignore, you are cooking another nothing burger to fit your agenda. Rinse repeat .
The Z Machine
Footballguy
The General
Footballguy
GoBirds
Footballguy
Punxsutawney Phil
Footballguy
Even Bezos is trashing Biden now. No way this guy wins a second term.
Sand
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
"Recession" is an overpoliticized bogeyman term. Recessions are a natural part of any growing economy. Just like a stock that is going up has to have pullbacks along the way before it can continue growing, the economy is no different. The fed putting off recession with insanely doveish monetary policy was never going to be sustainable long term, and trying to continue to do so would only have made the eventual damage catastrophically worse if we'd kept doing it. We've been way overdue.
Most recessions aren't that bad or that long (with exceptions like 2008 of course). The average being 11 months, and since recession is a lagging indicator that we can't declare officially until we've already been in one for 6 months that means by the time we know we're in one we're already more than half way done with it.
The only people freaking out and acting surprised that we're in a recession right now are either A) ignorant about what a recession is (most facebook posters), or B) trying to score political points (most FBG posters). A recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. We already had negative GDP growth last quarter. So all it takes to be an official recession is negative growth again this quarter and is anyone really expecting positive growth to be reported this quarter? It's been telegraphed as obviously as possible that we're probably already in a recession. But recessions aren't necessarily some terrible thing like whichever side is not in political control at the time paints them as.
It's all just so stupid. And of course it is not unique to conservatives that are playing the "OMG we're all screwed thanks to the prez" bill this time. The democrats do the same thing when it's the other way around. When a Republican is in control CNN reports that the sky is falling, while Fox News reports that recessions are natural part of a growing economy. When it's a democrat in control Fox News reports that the sky is falling, while CNN reports that recessions are a natural part of a growing economy.
69% of statistics are made up but statistically 95% of the people that use the word "recession" either don't actually know what it means economically, or are just posting in bad faith to score political points. For people that actually care there are lots of great rational and realistic discussions out there about this economy and what it means, how we got here, and how things will be moving forward. I work in real estate and it's great in those groups/masterminds being able to have a rational non-political discussion about how it's going and how it will or won't affect business going forward and how to adjust for the short term. But of course here on these boards where most posters live to frame everything in bad faith economic discussions rarely extend beyond "sleepy man bad".
Most recessions aren't that bad or that long (with exceptions like 2008 of course). The average being 11 months, and since recession is a lagging indicator that we can't declare officially until we've already been in one for 6 months that means by the time we know we're in one we're already more than half way done with it.
The only people freaking out and acting surprised that we're in a recession right now are either A) ignorant about what a recession is (most facebook posters), or B) trying to score political points (most FBG posters). A recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. We already had negative GDP growth last quarter. So all it takes to be an official recession is negative growth again this quarter and is anyone really expecting positive growth to be reported this quarter? It's been telegraphed as obviously as possible that we're probably already in a recession. But recessions aren't necessarily some terrible thing like whichever side is not in political control at the time paints them as.
It's all just so stupid. And of course it is not unique to conservatives that are playing the "OMG we're all screwed thanks to the prez" bill this time. The democrats do the same thing when it's the other way around. When a Republican is in control CNN reports that the sky is falling, while Fox News reports that recessions are natural part of a growing economy. When it's a democrat in control Fox News reports that the sky is falling, while CNN reports that recessions are a natural part of a growing economy.
69% of statistics are made up but statistically 95% of the people that use the word "recession" either don't actually know what it means economically, or are just posting in bad faith to score political points. For people that actually care there are lots of great rational and realistic discussions out there about this economy and what it means, how we got here, and how things will be moving forward. I work in real estate and it's great in those groups/masterminds being able to have a rational non-political discussion about how it's going and how it will or won't affect business going forward and how to adjust for the short term. But of course here on these boards where most posters live to frame everything in bad faith economic discussions rarely extend beyond "sleepy man bad".
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Snotbubbles
Footballguy
It's not just a recession that has people worried though. It's a recession compounded by inflation. This inflation is the worst I've seen in my lifetime.
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