Ryan Mathews Dynasty Value (2 Viewers)

[Tau837]

Rotoworld:

According to the Union-Tribune San Diego, the Chargers are "more than hinting" at a switch to a "multi-back system" that's less reliant on Ryan Mathews.

Danny Woodhead is locked in as San Diego's new passing-down back, crushing Mathews' receiving value. Per the U-T San Diego's Chris Jenkins, Woodhead is "already showing signs in camp of being a go-to guy for (Philip) Rivers." Mathews should get most of the early-down carries, but it'll be a dead giveaway to defenses when he's in the game. Behind a terrible offensive line, it's hard to generate excitement about Mathews' bounce-back candidacy in fantasy leagues.

Related: Danny Woodhead

Source: Union-Tribune San Diego

God this is stupid. Mathews hasn't been the passing down back, ever. He's not losing that work. He has never had it.

no, your comment is stupid. Way back in 2011 he had 50 catches

In 2011, Mathews had 50 receptions. Breakdown:0 came on 4th down.

5 came on 3rd down with 3+ yards to go.

15 came on 2nd down with 8+ yards to go.

1 came on 1st down with 11+ yards to go.

Meanwhile, Tolbert, Brinkley, and Hester combined for 73 receptions in 2011. Breakdown:

1 came on 4th down.

16 came on 3rd down with 3+ yards to go.

15 came on 2nd down with 8+ yards to go.

3 came on 1st down with 11+ yards to go.

I suppose it's up to each person to draw their own conclusions from this data. (All data from ESPN player page splits.)

 

[cstu]

Rotoworld:

According to the Union-Tribune San Diego, the Chargers are "more than hinting" at a switch to a "multi-back system" that's less reliant on Ryan Mathews.

Danny Woodhead is locked in as San Diego's new passing-down back, crushing Mathews' receiving value. Per the U-T San Diego's Chris Jenkins, Woodhead is "already showing signs in camp of being a go-to guy for (Philip) Rivers." Mathews should get most of the early-down carries, but it'll be a dead giveaway to defenses when he's in the game. Behind a terrible offensive line, it's hard to generate excitement about Mathews' bounce-back candidacy in fantasy leagues.

Related: Danny Woodhead

Source: Union-Tribune San Diego

God this is stupid. Mathews hasn't been the passing down back, ever. He's not losing that work. He has never had it.

Not only that, but it's a dead giveaway when Woodhead is in the game, not Mathews.

Woodhead has a higher career YPC (4.8) than Mathews (4.4).

Change of pace backs and 3rd down backs traditionally have inflated ypc, on top of that Woodhead has been playing is a considerably better offense for his entire career. I'm not sure if you are joking or are actually a slave to stats.

I'm only saying Woodhead is not a bad runner and fine on 3rd downs. Mathews is obviously a better runner but hasn't been used much as a receiver on 3rd downs (11/89 RB targets for 9.7 YPR) meanwhile Woodhead had 44/60 RB targets on 3rd down for the Pats for 12.1 YPR.

Woodhead has a career 4.9 YPC on 3rd downs and gained a 1st down on 18 of 35 carries (51%). He averaged 4.83 YPC while with the Jets.

Mathews has a career 6.7 YPC on 3rd downs and gained a 1st down on 10 of 17 carries (58%).

It stands to reason that Woodhead was brought in to be the primary 3rd down back and the stats show he's not a dead giveaway when he's in the backfield on 3rd downs.

 

[ghostguy123]

I would say adding Woodhead doesnt do anything to Mathews value. I mean, MAYBE it caps the upside to where he can't be a top 5 barring a huge TD spree or something.

And Woodhead is not a "good" runner, come on. Give that guy 15-20 carries a game on 1st and 2nd downs and lets see what happens. 3 ypc is my guess.

And I agree with whoever says that Woodhead in the backfield isn't a dead giveaway as far as it not being a running play, but I am pretty sure defenses WELCOME runnning plays on 3rd and long, so no matter who the RB is on 3rd and 9, the defense is not stacking for the run.

 

[cstu]

I would say adding Woodhead doesnt do anything to Mathews value. I mean, MAYBE it caps the upside to where he can't be a top 5 barring a huge TD spree or something.

And Woodhead is not a "good" runner, come on. Give that guy 15-20 carries a game on 1st and 2nd downs and lets see what happens. 3 ypc is my guess.

And I agree with whoever says that Woodhead in the backfield isn't a dead giveaway as far as it not being a running play, but I am pretty sure defenses WELCOME runnning plays on 3rd and long, so no matter who the RB is on 3rd and 9, the defense is not stacking for the run.

When I say he's a good runner I mean in certain situations, like 3rd and 5 or less. He's very efficient in that situation:

Rushing - 20 carries, 13 first downs

Receiving - 12 targets, 9 first downs

Total - 32 carries/targets, 22 first downs (69%)

 

[ghostguy123]

I would say adding Woodhead doesnt do anything to Mathews value. I mean, MAYBE it caps the upside to where he can't be a top 5 barring a huge TD spree or something.

And Woodhead is not a "good" runner, come on. Give that guy 15-20 carries a game on 1st and 2nd downs and lets see what happens. 3 ypc is my guess.

And I agree with whoever says that Woodhead in the backfield isn't a dead giveaway as far as it not being a running play, but I am pretty sure defenses WELCOME runnning plays on 3rd and long, so no matter who the RB is on 3rd and 9, the defense is not stacking for the run.

When I say he's a good runner I mean in certain situations, like 3rd and 5 or less. He's very efficient in that situation:

Rushing - 20 carries, 13 first downs

Receiving - 12 targets, 9 first downs

Total - 32 carries/targets, 22 first downs (69%)

As the 5th option, correct.

 

[cstu]

I would say adding Woodhead doesnt do anything to Mathews value. I mean, MAYBE it caps the upside to where he can't be a top 5 barring a huge TD spree or something.

And Woodhead is not a "good" runner, come on. Give that guy 15-20 carries a game on 1st and 2nd downs and lets see what happens. 3 ypc is my guess.

And I agree with whoever says that Woodhead in the backfield isn't a dead giveaway as far as it not being a running play, but I am pretty sure defenses WELCOME runnning plays on 3rd and long, so no matter who the RB is on 3rd and 9, the defense is not stacking for the run.

When I say he's a good runner I mean in certain situations, like 3rd and 5 or less. He's very efficient in that situation:

Rushing - 20 carries, 13 first downs

Receiving - 12 targets, 9 first downs

Total - 32 carries/targets, 22 first downs (69%)

As the 5th option, correct.

In SD he will at best be the 4th option, not exactly the guy who strikes fear into defenses yet he gets the job done.

 

[ghostguy123]

In SD he will at best be the 4th option, not exactly the guy who strikes fear into defenses yet he gets the job done.

It's a little different when the first three options aren't the likes of Gronk, Hernandez, and Welker. I don't see that in SD

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

Top 10 back this year. I have zero doubt barring injury.

I find it impossible that someone can believe this.

You serious?

Mathews finished 7th two years ago. He was riddled with injury last year.

Spare me Woodhead he's garbage and the year mathews finished top 7 Tolbert caught 54 balls.

Guys like you are short sighted and your comment makes you look uninformed, which clearly you are.

Please back up your statement why it's so impossible to believe this.

 

[FavreAndAwayAnIdiot]

I have zero reason to believe Matthews will stay healthy longer than maybe 3-4 games. Regardless of how good he can be during those 3-4 games, he is not worth the headache.

He is the epitome of fool's gold in fantasy football. Don't draft him. If you already did, you've either cut him or you're expecting big things from him. The problem with Matthews is that his owners are always "expecting big things from him".

 

[tdmills]

I have zero reason to believe Matthews will stay healthy longer than maybe 3-4 games. Regardless of how good he can be during those 3-4 games, he is not worth the headache.

He is the epitome of fool's gold in fantasy football. Don't draft him. If you already did, you've either cut him or you're expecting big things from him. The problem with Matthews is that his owners are always "expecting big things from him".

He's played in 3 times that many games in every season he's been in the NFL, but don't let facts get in the way.

Mathews is a risk/reward player in dynasty/redraft. Risk: he's been dinged up often in the NFL. Reward: He's put up top 10 numbers before.

 

[RBM]

Top 10 back this year. I have zero doubt barring injury.

I find it impossible that someone can believe this.

You serious?

Mathews finished 7th two years ago. He was riddled with injury last year.

Spare me Woodhead he's garbage and the year mathews finished top 7 Tolbert caught 54 balls.

Guys like you are short sighted and your comment makes you look uninformed, which clearly you are.

Please back up your statement why it's so impossible to believe this.

This. People are getting carried away with the rep Mathews has and forgetting the guy is extremely talented.

 

[Hoosier16]

Rotoworld:

According to the Union-Tribune San Diego, the Chargers are "more than hinting" at a switch to a "multi-back system" that's less reliant on Ryan Mathews.

Danny Woodhead is locked in as San Diego's new passing-down back, crushing Mathews' receiving value. Per the U-T San Diego's Chris Jenkins, Woodhead is "already showing signs in camp of being a go-to guy for (Philip) Rivers." Mathews should get most of the early-down carries, but it'll be a dead giveaway to defenses when he's in the game. Behind a terrible offensive line, it's hard to generate excitement about Mathews' bounce-back candidacy in fantasy leagues.

Related: Danny Woodhead

Source: Union-Tribune San Diego

God this is stupid. Mathews hasn't been the passing down back, ever. He's not losing that work. He has never had it.

Not only that, but it's a dead giveaway when Woodhead is in the game, not Mathews.

Woodhead has a higher career YPC (4.8) than Mathews (4.4).

Change of pace backs and 3rd down backs traditionally have inflated ypc, on top of that Woodhead has been playing is a considerably better offense for his entire career. I'm not sure if you are joking or are actually a slave to stats.

I'm only saying Woodhead is not a bad runner and fine on 3rd downs. Mathews is obviously a better runner but hasn't been used much as a receiver on 3rd downs (11/89 RB targets for 9.7 YPR) meanwhile Woodhead had 44/60 RB targets on 3rd down for the Pats for 12.1 YPR.

Woodhead has a career 4.9 YPC on 3rd downs and gained a 1st down on 18 of 35 carries (51%). He averaged 4.83 YPC while with the Jets.

Mathews has a career 6.7 YPC on 3rd downs and gained a 1st down on 10 of 17 carries (58%).

It stands to reason that Woodhead was brought in to be the primary 3rd down back and the stats show he's not a dead giveaway when he's in the backfield on 3rd downs.

I think you missed my point. The article above stated he would be the passing down back, which suggests he will play on passing downs. That, by itself, suggests that SD will be passing when he is in the game. Also, Woodhead played 424 snaps last year and 81% of those were passing plays. Thus, when Woodhead comes into the game, it is a dead giveaway that they are likely throwing the ball.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

The National Football Post expects the Chargers to emphasize "getting the ball more" to Ryan Mathews in the passing game.
It's an amusing tidbit, but reliable hometown paper the Union-Tribune San Diego hinted at the exact opposite earlier this month. We'd expect Mathews to get more than the five third-down touches he received last season — that's not a typo — but Danny Woodhead appears locked in as the Bolts' passing-down back. If Mathews is going to revive his once promising career, it's unlikely to be through a hail of receptions.

Source: National Football Post

 

[bucsbaby]

i've seen him dropping pretty far in mocks and have to conclude that he is good value at his adp at this point

 

[Ted Mullins]

i've seen him dropping pretty far in mocks and have to conclude that he is good value at his adp at this point

This is what I am thinking as well...he has been maligned by the fantasy community to the point that he may very well offer good value at his price

As mentioned already, he had 50 catches 2 years ago and 39 last year, despite very little 3rd down work. Rivers throws to his RBs pretty often. I expect Woodhead to take the vast majority of 3rd down work, but as mentioned that is work that Mathews never had - I actually think that adding Woodhead and losing Battle (1st & 2nd down and goalline competition) is actually better for Mathews from a personnel standpoint. I'd be more worried about Mathews becoming totally irrelevant if the Chargers picked up a more viable 1st & 2nd down runner, someone like McGahee.

As it stands now, I'd imagine he is in line for the majority of the early down carries, 30-45 receptions, and I would assume he will have first crack at goal line work. He has been maligned to the point where people ignore/forget that he SHOULD easily be the most talented back on this roster, assuming he is healthy. However, I expect the offense to be pretty bad, and Mathews may be on the sideline whenever the Chargers are behind and clearly have to throw, which could be pretty often. I expect this to be a pretty bad team.

From a dynasty perspective, I'd imagine that if he has another bad year he is on his way out - current regime has no ties to him. Considering they only added a passing down guy in Woodhead, it seems that Mathews will get a chance to prove himself this year though. I don't think the new staff will play the head games with him, they'll just get rid of him ASAP if he continues to struggle.

 

[Shutout]

Buy Ryan Matthews right now. He is going to be an everyweek startable RB this year.

 

[Instinctive]

Rotoworld:

According to the Union-Tribune San Diego, the Chargers are "more than hinting" at a switch to a "multi-back system" that's less reliant on Ryan Mathews.
Danny Woodhead is locked in as San Diego's new passing-down back, crushing Mathews' receiving value. Per the U-T San Diego's Chris Jenkins, Woodhead is "already showing signs in camp of being a go-to guy for (Philip) Rivers." Mathews should get most of the early-down carries, but it'll be a dead giveaway to defenses when he's in the game. Behind a terrible offensive line, it's hard to generate excitement about Mathews' bounce-back candidacy in fantasy leagues.

Related: Danny Woodhead

Source: Union-Tribune San Diego

God this is stupid. Mathews hasn't been the passing down back, ever. He's not losing that work. He has never had it.

no, your comment is stupid. Way back in 2011 he had 50 catches

I see someone already corrected you on page 3, but thought I would point out that in some thread on here (I believe this one, maybe the spotlight) we looked at the breakdown of Mathews getting 3rd down work, and he has never had anything more than a negligible portion of 3rd down work over the course of a season.

Therefore, he hasn't been in that role. Unless they put him in the role but then never ever played him in it... :smh:

Before you call someone out for stupidity, do your research...like I did

 

[FF Ninja]

In 14 games in 2011, Mathews had 27 first down targets, 25 second down targets, and 7 third down targets.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Rotoworld:

According to the Union-Tribune San Diego, the Chargers are "more than hinting" at a switch to a "multi-back system" that's less reliant on Ryan Mathews.
Danny Woodhead is locked in as San Diego's new passing-down back, crushing Mathews' receiving value. Per the U-T San Diego's Chris Jenkins, Woodhead is "already showing signs in camp of being a go-to guy for (Philip) Rivers." Mathews should get most of the early-down carries, but it'll be a dead giveaway to defenses when he's in the game. Behind a terrible offensive line, it's hard to generate excitement about Mathews' bounce-back candidacy in fantasy leagues.

Related: Danny Woodhead

Source: Union-Tribune San Diego

God this is stupid. Mathews hasn't been the passing down back, ever. He's not losing that work. He has never had it.

no, your comment is stupid. Way back in 2011 he had 50 catches

I see someone already corrected you on page 3, but thought I would point out that in some thread on here (I believe this one, maybe the spotlight) we looked at the breakdown of Mathews getting 3rd down work, and he has never had anything more than a negligible portion of 3rd down work over the course of a season.

Therefore, he hasn't been in that role. Unless they put him in the role but then never ever played him in it... :smh:

Before you call someone out for stupidity, do your research...like I did

do 3rd down pass catches count as more points?

Mathews has proved he can be productive in the passing game

everydown is a passing down in the NFL.

They do need to limit Mathews touches becuase he is so fragile

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

all that being said I think he has great value in re-draft and dynasty right now.

Why is McFadden & DeMarco ADPs much higher? I dont know

 

[Ted Mullins]

yeah, Rivers throws to RBs enough that he will get catches without playing many 3rd downs.

IMO he is a talented lead RB who we have seen be quite successful previously that is available later than most other lead RBs. You don't have to like him, you don't have to draft him, he may have burned you before (did it to me in multiple leagues last year) but the potential for good value is definitely there. There are warts, but there are warts on most players in the range where he is being drafted.

 

[tdmills]

all that being said I think he has great value in re-draft and dynasty right now.

Why is McFadden & DeMarco ADPs much higher? I dont know

Exactly. Especially considering Mathews last two seasons yardage wise> D. Murray. And DMC has only had one season(out of 5) better than Mathews best season out of 3.

 

[Instinctive]

yeah, Rivers throws to RBs enough that he will get catches without playing many 3rd downs.

IMO he is a talented lead RB who we have seen be quite successful previously that is available later than most other lead RBs. You don't have to like him, you don't have to draft him, he may have burned you before (did it to me in multiple leagues last year) but the potential for good value is definitely there. There are warts, but there are warts on most players in the range where he is being drafted.

This is the point we've been trying to make whenever somebody says Woodhead is going to take away touches. Woodhead isn't going to encroach on downs where Mathews played anyway. He's going to take downs away from Tolbert/Ronnie Brown's role over the last couple years.

Mathews = huge value this year.

 

[PhantomJB]

yeah, Rivers throws to RBs enough that he will get catches without playing many 3rd downs.

IMO he is a talented lead RB who we have seen be quite successful previously that is available later than most other lead RBs. You don't have to like him, you don't have to draft him, he may have burned you before (did it to me in multiple leagues last year) but the potential for good value is definitely there. There are warts, but there are warts on most players in the range where he is being drafted.

This is the point we've been trying to make whenever somebody says Woodhead is going to take away touches. Woodhead isn't going to encroach on downs where Mathews played anyway. He's going to take downs away from Tolbert/Ronnie Brown's role over the last couple years.

Mathews = huge value this year.

I think the point a lot of people are trying to make about Woodhead is that his likely presence as 3-down specialist is going to cap the upside of Mathews vs. other perceived 3-down backs in 2012. That makes Mathews' ceiling around a high-end RB2. Do you disagree?

Also, this would explain why McFadden and Murray are going higher. 3-down backs with perceived better talent and at least one on a more potent offense.

 

[FF Ninja]

yeah, Rivers throws to RBs enough that he will get catches without playing many 3rd downs.

IMO he is a talented lead RB who we have seen be quite successful previously that is available later than most other lead RBs. You don't have to like him, you don't have to draft him, he may have burned you before (did it to me in multiple leagues last year) but the potential for good value is definitely there. There are warts, but there are warts on most players in the range where he is being drafted.

This is the point we've been trying to make whenever somebody says Woodhead is going to take away touches. Woodhead isn't going to encroach on downs where Mathews played anyway. He's going to take downs away from Tolbert/Ronnie Brown's role over the last couple years.

Mathews = huge value this year.

I think the point a lot of people are trying to make about Woodhead is that his likely presence as 3-down specialist is going to cap the upside of Mathews vs. other perceived 3-down backs in 2012. That makes Mathews' ceiling around a high-end RB2. Do you disagree?

Also, this would explain why McFadden and Murray are going higher. 3-down backs with perceived better talent and at least one on a more potent offense.

I can't speak for him, but I would speculate that yes, he would disagree. Because in 2011, Mathews played 14 games and finished RB7 despite only 10 third down rushes and 7 third down targets.

 

[Ted Mullins]

yeah, Rivers throws to RBs enough that he will get catches without playing many 3rd downs.

IMO he is a talented lead RB who we have seen be quite successful previously that is available later than most other lead RBs. You don't have to like him, you don't have to draft him, he may have burned you before (did it to me in multiple leagues last year) but the potential for good value is definitely there. There are warts, but there are warts on most players in the range where he is being drafted.

This is the point we've been trying to make whenever somebody says Woodhead is going to take away touches. Woodhead isn't going to encroach on downs where Mathews played anyway. He's going to take downs away from Tolbert/Ronnie Brown's role over the last couple years.

Mathews = huge value this year.

I think the point a lot of people are trying to make about Woodhead is that his likely presence as 3-down specialist is going to cap the upside of Mathews vs. other perceived 3-down backs in 2012. That makes Mathews' ceiling around a high-end RB2. Do you disagree?

Also, this would explain why McFadden and Murray are going higher. 3-down backs with perceived better talent and at least one on a more potent offense.

This makes sense, and you are probably right about the higher ceiling, but I think it's worth noting that Mathews has already had 50 and 39 catch seasons without any substantial 3rd down work. His upside is capped, but IMO if he plays 14+ games he is still a good bet for 220ish carries and 30+ catches. The trend over the last few years is that Mathews gets a lot of catches compared to other guys who don't do 3rd downs like Michael Turner or Alfred Morris last year.

My main concerns with Mathews are how bad the offense may be and the injury history (although I do think he's had some bad luck). I think he is a good value, but far from a sure thing considering he had under 1k total yards and 1 TD on 223 total touches last year.

Personally, I will probably end up with him on a couple teams, but will likely have 2+ good RBs before I go near him - his current ADP makes that very possible though.

 

[PhantomJB]

yeah, Rivers throws to RBs enough that he will get catches without playing many 3rd downs.

IMO he is a talented lead RB who we have seen be quite successful previously that is available later than most other lead RBs. You don't have to like him, you don't have to draft him, he may have burned you before (did it to me in multiple leagues last year) but the potential for good value is definitely there. There are warts, but there are warts on most players in the range where he is being drafted.

This is the point we've been trying to make whenever somebody says Woodhead is going to take away touches. Woodhead isn't going to encroach on downs where Mathews played anyway. He's going to take downs away from Tolbert/Ronnie Brown's role over the last couple years.

Mathews = huge value this year.

I think the point a lot of people are trying to make about Woodhead is that his likely presence as 3-down specialist is going to cap the upside of Mathews vs. other perceived 3-down backs in 2012. That makes Mathews' ceiling around a high-end RB2. Do you disagree?

Also, this would explain why McFadden and Murray are going higher. 3-down backs with perceived better talent and at least one on a more potent offense.

I can't speak for him, but I would speculate that yes, he would disagree. Because in 2011, Mathews played 14 games and finished RB7 despite only 10 third down rushes and 7 third down targets.

Mathews' Top 10 finish in 2011 is misleading (and borderline irrelevant) because there are at least six guys who would likely have outperformed him if they all (including Mathews) played a 16 game schedule: J. Charles, ADP, M.Forte, D. McFadden and D. Murray.

That said, I will grant Mathews one Top 10 finish in his career while playing for a better offense with a better O-line better weapons (VJax, younger and healthier Gates) and a known offensive guru (Norv).

In 2013, Mathews has significantly greater competition from other proven RBs around the league to finish in the Top 10 through a combination of:

1) Healthy RB's still in their prime that outperformed Mathews in 2011:

1. R. Rice

2. L. McCoy

3. A. Foster

4. M. Lynch

5. MJD (admittedly past prime)

2) New guys on the block and return of injured studs who finished Top 10 last year:

6. D. Martin

7. A. Morris

8. CJ Spiller

9. T. Richardson

10. S. Ridley

11. J. Charles

12. ADP

3) Perrenial Top 10-15 RB's who have good/improved situations:

13. CJ2K

14. F. Gore

15. S. Jackson

16. R. Bush

4) Other 3-down backs

17. D. McFadden

18. D. Murray

I'm gonna stop there because we're already in mid/low-end RB2 territory.

There is virtually zero chance, barring injury, that Ryan Mathews plays a 2-down role for the Chargers this year and finishes higher than anyone on the Top 12 on that list. Maybe some chance of beating RBs 13-18 if somehow all the others underperform expectations and Mathews and the Chargers' offense with a revamped O-line, aging QB, 65 year old tight end and a bare cupboard at WR have a phenomenal season. IMO, of course.

Therefore the "high-RB2 upside". But I agree a great value at anything greater than ADP RB22 since his floor should be pretty high if healthy.

 

[Ted Mullins]

I would agree it might be misleading considering those injuries, but wouldn't call it irrelevant - he still had 1500+ yds from scrimmage and 6 TDs on 272 touches - a nice finish both from a total and efficiency standpoint. If we are considering "what ifs" from that season, it's only fair to also note that Tolbert had 11 TDs that year as well - IMO there's a decent chance Mathews get those goal line opps this year, although I don't think there will be a lot.

That said, I'd still say your high-RB2 upside assessment is a good call. Mathews had a decent sample size to look at last year, and between his own issues, the O-line, and the offense being poor in general, he did not do much (under 1k total yds, 1 TD). However, I still think given the personnel that he has a very good chance at 250+ touches if healthy, which is noteworthy considering his talent.

Sorry if this is the wrong thread for it, but IMO an optimistic yet reasonable scenario is something like 250ish rushes for ~1100 yds, and 40ish catches for ~350 yds, with a likely high of 8-9 TDs - I think he gets the goal line opps, but don't think there will be a lot of them, similar to last year.

If I had to put money on it, I'd put his likely stats at approximately 75-85% of that with 6-7 TDs. I also think there will be at least a few instances where the Chargers are blown out and it's mostly Woodhead in the 2nd half - going to be bad weeks to start Mathews.

 

[SD1977]

Crazy. Woodhead isn't anything special.he was a product of the NE system and good online. He will look the same way he did in NY in SD...pedestrian. If Matthews can stay healthy, he has TE talent to be a top 10 HB

 

[Instinctive]

Something that may start to become telling, although could have no impact as of now, is the loss of Floyd and Alexander. If receivers keep going down, someone is gonna need to go out on routes. Too bad for the RBs that right now deep threats are going down, rather than short route guys.

 

[amicsta]

yeah, Rivers throws to RBs enough that he will get catches without playing many 3rd downs.

IMO he is a talented lead RB who we have seen be quite successful previously that is available later than most other lead RBs. You don't have to like him, you don't have to draft him, he may have burned you before (did it to me in multiple leagues last year) but the potential for good value is definitely there. There are warts, but there are warts on most players in the range where he is being drafted.

This is the point we've been trying to make whenever somebody says Woodhead is going to take away touches. Woodhead isn't going to encroach on downs where Mathews played anyway. He's going to take downs away from Tolbert/Ronnie Brown's role over the last couple years.

Mathews = huge value this year.

I think the point a lot of people are trying to make about Woodhead is that his likely presence as 3-down specialist is going to cap the upside of Mathews vs. other perceived 3-down backs in 2012. That makes Mathews' ceiling around a high-end RB2. Do you disagree?

Also, this would explain why McFadden and Murray are going higher. 3-down backs with perceived better talent and at least one on a more potent offense.

I can't speak for him, but I would speculate that yes, he would disagree. Because in 2011, Mathews played 14 games and finished RB7 despite only 10 third down rushes and 7 third down targets.

Mathews' Top 10 finish in 2011 is misleading (and borderline irrelevant) because there are at least six guys who would likely have outperformed him if they all (including Mathews) played a 16 game schedule: J. Charles, ADP, M.Forte, D. McFadden and D. Murray.

That said, I will grant Mathews one Top 10 finish in his career while playing for a better offense with a better O-line better weapons (VJax, younger and healthier Gates) and a known offensive guru (Norv).

In 2013, Mathews has significantly greater competition from other proven RBs around the league to finish in the Top 10 through a combination of:

1) Healthy RB's still in their prime that outperformed Mathews in 2011:

1. R. Rice

2. L. McCoy

3. A. Foster

4. M. Lynch

5. MJD (admittedly past prime)

2) New guys on the block and return of injured studs who finished Top 10 last year:

6. D. Martin

7. A. Morris

8. CJ Spiller

9. T. Richardson

10. S. Ridley

11. J. Charles

12. ADP

3) Perrenial Top 10-15 RB's who have good/improved situations:

13. CJ2K

14. F. Gore

15. S. Jackson

16. R. Bush

4) Other 3-down backs

17. D. McFadden

18. D. Murray

I'm gonna stop there because we're already in mid/low-end RB2 territory.

There is virtually zero chance, barring injury, that Ryan Mathews plays a 2-down role for the Chargers this year and finishes higher than anyone on the Top 12 on that list. Maybe some chance of beating RBs 13-18 if somehow all the others underperform expectations and Mathews and the Chargers' offense with a revamped O-line, aging QB, 65 year old tight end and a bare cupboard at WR have a phenomenal season. IMO, of course.

Therefore the "high-RB2 upside". But I agree a great value at anything greater than ADP RB22 since his floor should be pretty high if healthy.

Well it would seem silly to me to not consider this when considering Mathews' upside. There are running backs who get hurt every year. I see all the time in this forum people throwing around the stat that "50% of the running backs drafted in the top 12 will fail" when its irrelevant, and yet for something like this, when it is most relevant, it is disregarded. Mathews is a tremendous value right now and his upside definitely can reach the high RB2 level, I would probably argue higher.

 

[FF Ninja]

yeah, Rivers throws to RBs enough that he will get catches without playing many 3rd downs.

IMO he is a talented lead RB who we have seen be quite successful previously that is available later than most other lead RBs. You don't have to like him, you don't have to draft him, he may have burned you before (did it to me in multiple leagues last year) but the potential for good value is definitely there. There are warts, but there are warts on most players in the range where he is being drafted.

This is the point we've been trying to make whenever somebody says Woodhead is going to take away touches. Woodhead isn't going to encroach on downs where Mathews played anyway. He's going to take downs away from Tolbert/Ronnie Brown's role over the last couple years.

Mathews = huge value this year.

I think the point a lot of people are trying to make about Woodhead is that his likely presence as 3-down specialist is going to cap the upside of Mathews vs. other perceived 3-down backs in 2012. That makes Mathews' ceiling around a high-end RB2. Do you disagree?

Also, this would explain why McFadden and Murray are going higher. 3-down backs with perceived better talent and at least one on a more potent offense.

I can't speak for him, but I would speculate that yes, he would disagree. Because in 2011, Mathews played 14 games and finished RB7 despite only 10 third down rushes and 7 third down targets.

Mathews' Top 10 finish in 2011 is misleading (and borderline irrelevant) because there are at least six guys (yet you only list five) who would likely have outperformed him if they all (including Mathews) played a 16 game schedule: J. Charles, ADP, M.Forte, D. McFadden and D. Murray. Not true for Murray, probably not true for Charles, Forte was close, DMC was on fire for 7 games - can't extrapolate 9 more games, ADP - yes but only due to touchdowns

That said, I will grant Mathews one Top 10 finish in his career while playing for a better offense with a better O-line better weapons (VJax, younger and healthier Gates) and a known offensive guru (Norv).

In 2013, Mathews has significantly greater competition from other proven RBs around the league to finish in the Top 10 through a combination of:

1) Healthy RB's still in their prime that outperformed Mathews in 2011:

1. R. Rice team is falling apart; lost Cam Cameron who fed him passes; now has Pierce threatening for carries

2. L. McCoy

3. A. Foster

4. M. Lynch

5. MJD (admittedly past prime) lisfranc injury; horrible offense; lots of mileage

2) New guys on the block and return of injured studs who finished Top 10 last year:

6. D. Martin lots of touches, but not overly impressive talent

7. A. Morris

8. CJ Spiller completely new offense; lost star guard

9. T. Richardson starting to look just as brittle as Mathews

10. S. Ridley two down back who may be losing goal line touches to Blount

11. J. Charles already injured

12. ADP lots of hard miles

3) Perrenial Top 10-15 RB's who have good/improved situations:

13. CJ2K probably losing goal line touches to Greene this year

14. F. Gore 30 years old, same situation; scored 199 pts in 16 games last year and 181 the year before

15. S. Jackson I like him this year but age and miles have to be a concern

16. R. Bush LeShoure will certainly vulture his TDs; not sure how many carries he'll get (overall, I like Bush this year, though)

4) Other 3-down backs

17. D. McFadden more brittle than Mathews; looked bad last year

18. D. Murray more brittle than Mathews; looked bad last year;

I'm gonna stop there because we're already in mid/low-end RB2 territory.

There is virtually zero chance, barring injury, that Ryan Mathews plays a 2-down role for the Chargers this year and finishes higher than anyone on the Top 12 on that list. Maybe some chance of beating RBs 13-18 if somehow all the others underperform expectations and Mathews and the Chargers' offense with a revamped O-line, aging QB, 65 year old tight end and a bare cupboard at WR have a phenomenal season. IMO, of course.

Therefore the "high-RB2 upside". But I agree a great value at anything greater than ADP RB22 since his floor should be pretty high if healthy.

This is laughable. Mathews finished #7... on 14 games... without 3rd downs... with a touchdown vulture.

And now that he's lost his goal line vulture(s), you think he's capped at "high-RB2 upside". I will play along and go through this silly list...

:makes comments in red:

The offensive line was already in trouble in 2011, Gates was playing through a foot injury, Tolbert got 120 carries and scored 10 TDs (8 rush, 2 rec), and Rivers threw 20 INTs. And personally, I like Mike McCoy better than Norv Turner. So I think 2013 actually looks as good as 2011. If Mathews is healthy, he'll have a good shot at double digit TDs for the first time in his career because I'm not too worried about Woodhead or a 31 year old Ronnie Brown taking over the Tolbert/Battle role.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Crazy. Woodhead isn't anything special.he was a product of the NE system and good online. He will look the same way he did in NY in SD...pedestrian. If Matthews can stay healthy, he has TE talent to be a top 10 HB

He actually looked really good in NY - the only reason the Jets didn't keep him at the end of camp was because they wanted to save face and not cut their 4th round pick, Joe McKnight (nice move Tannenbaum).

Let's end the myth that Danny Woodhead is not a good player and is only a product of the system. Woodhead led the NCAAs in rushing his last season at college, albeit at a Division II School and has elite level speed.

Is he the all around back that Matthews is? No he isn't, but he can play in the NFL.

 

[PhantomJB]

yeah, Rivers throws to RBs enough that he will get catches without playing many 3rd downs.

IMO he is a talented lead RB who we have seen be quite successful previously that is available later than most other lead RBs. You don't have to like him, you don't have to draft him, he may have burned you before (did it to me in multiple leagues last year) but the potential for good value is definitely there. There are warts, but there are warts on most players in the range where he is being drafted.

This is the point we've been trying to make whenever somebody says Woodhead is going to take away touches. Woodhead isn't going to encroach on downs where Mathews played anyway. He's going to take downs away from Tolbert/Ronnie Brown's role over the last couple years.

Mathews = huge value this year.

I think the point a lot of people are trying to make about Woodhead is that his likely presence as 3-down specialist is going to cap the upside of Mathews vs. other perceived 3-down backs in 2012. That makes Mathews' ceiling around a high-end RB2. Do you disagree?

Also, this would explain why McFadden and Murray are going higher. 3-down backs with perceived better talent and at least one on a more potent offense.

I can't speak for him, but I would speculate that yes, he would disagree. Because in 2011, Mathews played 14 games and finished RB7 despite only 10 third down rushes and 7 third down targets.

Mathews' Top 10 finish in 2011 is misleading (and borderline irrelevant) because there are at least six guys (yet you only list five) who would likely have outperformed him if they all (including Mathews) played a 16 game schedule: J. Charles, ADP, M.Forte, D. McFadden and D. Murray. Not true for Murray, probably not true for Charles, Forte was close, DMC was on fire for 7 games - can't extrapolate 9 more games, ADP - yes but only due to touchdowns

That said, I will grant Mathews one Top 10 finish in his career while playing for a better offense with a better O-line better weapons (VJax, younger and healthier Gates) and a known offensive guru (Norv).

In 2013, Mathews has significantly greater competition from other proven RBs around the league to finish in the Top 10 through a combination of:

1) Healthy RB's still in their prime that outperformed Mathews in 2011:

1. R. Rice team is falling apart; lost Cam Cameron who fed him passes; now has Pierce threatening for carries

2. L. McCoy

3. A. Foster

4. M. Lynch

5. MJD (admittedly past prime) lisfranc injury; horrible offense; lots of mileage

2) New guys on the block and return of injured studs who finished Top 10 last year:

6. D. Martin lots of touches, but not overly impressive talent

7. A. Morris

8. CJ Spiller completely new offense; lost star guard

9. T. Richardson starting to look just as brittle as Mathews

10. S. Ridley two down back who may be losing goal line touches to Blount

11. J. Charles already injured

12. ADP lots of hard miles

3) Perrenial Top 10-15 RB's who have good/improved situations:

13. CJ2K probably losing goal line touches to Greene this year

14. F. Gore 30 years old, same situation; scored 199 pts in 16 games last year and 181 the year before

15. S. Jackson I like him this year but age and miles have to be a concern

16. R. Bush LeShoure will certainly vulture his TDs; not sure how many carries he'll get (overall, I like Bush this year, though)

4) Other 3-down backs

17. D. McFadden more brittle than Mathews; looked bad last year

18. D. Murray more brittle than Mathews; looked bad last year;

I'm gonna stop there because we're already in mid/low-end RB2 territory.

There is virtually zero chance, barring injury, that Ryan Mathews plays a 2-down role for the Chargers this year and finishes higher than anyone on the Top 12 on that list. Maybe some chance of beating RBs 13-18 if somehow all the others underperform expectations and Mathews and the Chargers' offense with a revamped O-line, aging QB, 65 year old tight end and a bare cupboard at WR have a phenomenal season. IMO, of course.

Therefore the "high-RB2 upside". But I agree a great value at anything greater than ADP RB22 since his floor should be pretty high if healthy.

This is laughable. Mathews finished #7... on 14 games... without 3rd downs... with a touchdown vulture.

And now that he's lost his goal line vulture(s), you think he's capped at "high-RB2 upside". I will play along and go through this silly list...

:makes comments in red:

The offensive line was already in trouble in 2011, Gates was playing through a foot injury, Tolbert got 120 carries and scored 10 TDs (8 rush, 2 rec), and Rivers threw 20 INTs. And personally, I like Mike McCoy better than Norv Turner. So I think 2013 actually looks as good as 2011. If Mathews is healthy, he'll have a good shot at double digit TDs for the first time in his career because I'm not too worried about Woodhead or a 31 year old Ronnie Brown taking over the Tolbert/Battle role.

LOL on the red comments.

Let's create a greatest hits and tell me who does this remind you of?

team is falling apart

lost [Norv Turner] who fed him passes

horrible offense

not overly impressive talent

two down back

brittle

completely new offense

looked bad last year

And good luck on the double digit TDs from a team that scored a grand total of four last year (oh sorry. 2012 stats are meaningless. we can only reference the 2011 season)

 

[FF Ninja]

Crazy. Woodhead isn't anything special.he was a product of the NE system and good online. He will look the same way he did in NY in SD...pedestrian. If Matthews can stay healthy, he has TE talent to be a top 10 HB

He actually looked really good in NY - the only reason the Jets didn't keep him at the end of camp was because they wanted to save face and not cut their 4th round pick, Joe McKnight (nice move Tannenbaum).

Let's end the myth that Danny Woodhead is not a good player and is only a product of the system. Woodhead led the NCAAs in rushing his last season at college, albeit at a Division II School and has elite level speed.

Is he the all around back that Matthews is? No he isn't, but he can play in the NFL.

He's not a bad situational back and is clearly a good receiver, but his lack of yards after contact and broken tackles makes him an unlikely candidate for a lot of rushes, no matter what the preseason chatter says. So long as Mathews is healthy, he's going to be by far the best rusher on this team.

 

[Tau837]

For those who don't like Mathews, how about posting your projections for the San Diego RBs this season?

Mathews averaged 19.4 touches per game in 2011 and 19.6 touches per game in 2012 if you ignore his last game when he got hurt. And he has been reasonably productive, especially considering how the surrounding offensive talent crumbled last season. Are naysayers projecting him with 19+ touches per game, and still not seeing value at his ADP? Or are they projecting many fewer touches per game due to the new offense and/or injuries?

 

[Ghost Rider]

I was way down on Mathews last year, but he is going for chicken scratch in auctions right now (he went for around $10 in both I have done so far), so if that keeps up, I might take a flier on him in a league or two. For that low a price, I can let him sit on my bench at the start, and if he does find that 2011 form again, he could be a great value selection.

 

[B-Deep]

Is there some value here, sure

Some of the pro mathews guys are pretty over the top on this guy though

i own him in a dynasty league and if he cracks my starting lineup at all this year it'll be a surprise

i have little faith in him or the team

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Crazy. Woodhead isn't anything special.he was a product of the NE system and good online. He will look the same way he did in NY in SD...pedestrian. If Matthews can stay healthy, he has TE talent to be a top 10 HB

He actually looked really good in NY - the only reason the Jets didn't keep him at the end of camp was because they wanted to save face and not cut their 4th round pick, Joe McKnight (nice move Tannenbaum).

Let's end the myth that Danny Woodhead is not a good player and is only a product of the system. Woodhead led the NCAAs in rushing his last season at college, albeit at a Division II School and has elite level speed.

Is he the all around back that Matthews is? No he isn't, but he can play in the NFL.

He's not a bad situational back and is clearly a good receiver, but his lack of yards after contact and broken tackles makes him an unlikely candidate for a lot of rushes, no matter what the preseason chatter says. So long as Mathews is healthy, he's going to be by far the best rusher on this team.

Sure, he's a situational back, but one of those "situations", passing downs, is why he could potentially be a real hinderance to Ryan Matthews' production. SD's defense and o-line are far below average. They may have issues establishing the run and will likely fall behind quickly in a lot of games - while that doesn't mean they will abandon the run necessarily, there may be games where they are forced to do so early in the second half.

Also while some people love the sabermetric type stats, I think football isn't really the sport to champion them in (not that they're useless by any means) because NFL player and specifically here RBs are dependant on so many factors. It isn't as simple as just plugging numbers into a formula.

Also Woodhead is small, but has elite level speed - yards after contact and borken tackles aren't his game. While this is obviously an extreme example, I'm just trying to show why "yards after contact" don't necessarily tell the whole story.

- Woodhead takes a carry, hits the hole hard, gets past the linemen untouched easily with his speed, and gets hit by a linebacker and falls one yard after contact for a 7 yard gain.

- Matthews takes that same carry gets hit in the hole, but bounces off a lineman stumbles forward before the linebacker takes him down. Matthews has 4 yards after contact for a four yard gain.

Which was better for the team, Matthews 4 yards after contact or Woodhead's 1 yard after contact? Like I said this is an extreme example just to make a point - overall I agree that a back that can bounce off of contact is the better long term bet - but it's not every backs game.

 

[FF Ninja]

LOL on the red comments.

Let's create a greatest hits and tell me who does this remind you of?

team is falling apart

lost [Norv Turner] who fed him passes

horrible offense

not overly impressive talent

two down back

brittle

completely new offense

looked bad last year

And good luck on the double digit TDs from a team that scored a grand total of four last year (oh sorry. 2012 stats are meaningless. we can only reference the 2011 season)

To waste time with uninformed troll or not...

I'll bite. First off, the team is now rebuilding with a very good coaching staff and a new GM. A Mike McCoy offense is worth getting excited about. Norv offense was obviously stale (finished 31st last year). Second, you cement yourself as a joke when you question Mathew's talent. It's clearly there. The only thing holding him back is health. Third, he plays the role of a two down back, but he's clearly more than capable in the passing game.

 

[B-Deep]

LOL on the red comments.

Let's create a greatest hits and tell me who does this remind you of?

team is falling apart

lost [Norv Turner] who fed him passes

horrible offense

not overly impressive talent

two down back

brittle

completely new offense

looked bad last year

And good luck on the double digit TDs from a team that scored a grand total of four last year (oh sorry. 2012 stats are meaningless. we can only reference the 2011 season)

To waste time with uninformed troll or not...

I'll bite. First off, the team is now rebuilding with a very good coaching staff and a new GM. A Mike McCoy offense is worth getting excited about. Norv offense was obviously stale (finished 31st last year). Second, you cement yourself as a joke when you question Mathew's talent. It's clearly there. The only thing holding him back is health. Third, he plays the role of a two down back, but he's clearly more than capable in the passing game.

really the only thing you disputed was the talent

I don;t now his list is accurate, but the post he pulled them from was a ridiculousy poor bashing of almost every non Mathews back, and many of those comments could be applied to Mathews. I think the comments were useless in the first place. almts everyone has something you could say bad about them

 

[Groundpounder]

yeah, Rivers throws to RBs enough that he will get catches without playing many 3rd downs.

IMO he is a talented lead RB who we have seen be quite successful previously that is available later than most other lead RBs. You don't have to like him, you don't have to draft him, he may have burned you before (did it to me in multiple leagues last year) but the potential for good value is definitely there. There are warts, but there are warts on most players in the range where he is being drafted.

This is the point we've been trying to make whenever somebody says Woodhead is going to take away touches. Woodhead isn't going to encroach on downs where Mathews played anyway. He's going to take downs away from Tolbert/Ronnie Brown's role over the last couple years.

Mathews = huge value this year.

I think the point a lot of people are trying to make about Woodhead is that his likely presence as 3-down specialist is going to cap the upside of Mathews vs. other perceived 3-down backs in 2012. That makes Mathews' ceiling around a high-end RB2. Do you disagree?

Also, this would explain why McFadden and Murray are going higher. 3-down backs with perceived better talent and at least one on a more potent offense.

I can't speak for him, but I would speculate that yes, he would disagree. Because in 2011, Mathews played 14 games and finished RB7 despite only 10 third down rushes and 7 third down targets.

Mathews' Top 10 finish in 2011 is misleading (and borderline irrelevant) because there are at least six guys who would likely have outperformed him if they all (including Mathews) played a 16 game schedule: J. Charles, ADP, M.Forte, D. McFadden and D. Murray.

That said, I will grant Mathews one Top 10 finish in his career while playing for a better offense with a better O-line better weapons (VJax, younger and healthier Gates) and a known offensive guru (Norv).

In 2013, Mathews has significantly greater competition from other proven RBs around the league to finish in the Top 10 through a combination of:

1) Healthy RB's still in their prime that outperformed Mathews in 2011:

1. R. Rice

2. L. McCoy

3. A. Foster

4. M. Lynch

5. MJD (admittedly past prime)

2) New guys on the block and return of injured studs who finished Top 10 last year:

6. D. Martin

7. A. Morris

8. CJ Spiller

9. T. Richardson

10. S. Ridley

11. J. Charles

12. ADP

3) Perrenial Top 10-15 RB's who have good/improved situations:

13. CJ2K

14. F. Gore

15. S. Jackson

16. R. Bush

4) Other 3-down backs

17. D. McFadden

18. D. Murray

I'm gonna stop there because we're already in mid/low-end RB2 territory.

There is virtually zero chance, barring injury, that Ryan Mathews plays a 2-down role for the Chargers this year and finishes higher than anyone on the Top 12 on that list. Maybe some chance of beating RBs 13-18 if somehow all the others underperform expectations and Mathews and the Chargers' offense with a revamped O-line, aging QB, 65 year old tight end and a bare cupboard at WR have a phenomenal season. IMO, of course.

Therefore the "high-RB2 upside". But I agree a great value at anything greater than ADP RB22 since his floor should be pretty high if healthy.

This is great analysis. I will say though, all it takes is an injury or two to players listed above him and maybe more touches for him than expected and you have a high end RB2 or a low end RB1 that you got in the 6th round. I'll take that all day as my 3rd RB.

 

[Groundpounder]

I'll also say that losing Norv Turner is a PLUS for Matthews. I owned him in 3 leagues last year and watched many SD games. I can't tell you how many times I saw him come in and rip off a couple nice runs showing twice the burst of Ronnie Brown and Jackie Battle, yet Turner would yank him immediately. Turner also publicly waaaay over played the fumble card. See the following link:

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/most-fumbles-and-fumbles-lost/2012/

I am a firm believer that Turner had given up on Matthews for whatever reason or maybe there was some sort of rift between the two. There was no questioning him as the most talented RB on the team last season and I don't think that changes with the signing of Danny Woodhead. I'm curious to see if Matthews can stay healthy. If he does, I don't see him finishing out of the top 20 and I think a top 10 finish is possible but not likely.

 

[B-Deep]

I'll also say that losing Norv Turner is a PLUS for Matthews. I owned him in 3 leagues last year and watched many SD games. I can't tell you how many times I saw him come in and rip off a couple nice runs showing twice the burst of Ronnie Brown and Jackie Battle, yet Turner would yank him immediately. Turner also publicly waaaay over played the fumble card. See the following link:

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/most-fumbles-and-fumbles-lost/2012/

I am a firm believer that Turner had given up on Matthews for whatever reason or maybe there was some sort of rift between the two. There was no questioning him as the most talented RB on the team last season and I don't think that changes with the signing of Danny Woodhead. I'm curious to see if Matthews can stay healthy. If he does, I don't see him finishing out of the top 20 and I think a top 10 finish is possible but not likely.

See, to me this is not a plus

Turner's been pretty good to running backs, if he had issues with Mathews it concerns me. People see turner's influence in Cleveland as a plus for Richardson, and others see his leaving mathews as a plus for mathews...

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I'll also say that losing Norv Turner is a PLUS for Matthews. I owned him in 3 leagues last year and watched many SD games. I can't tell you how many times I saw him come in and rip off a couple nice runs showing twice the burst of Ronnie Brown and Jackie Battle, yet Turner would yank him immediately. Turner also publicly waaaay over played the fumble card. See the following link:

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/most-fumbles-and-fumbles-lost/2012/

I am a firm believer that Turner had given up on Matthews for whatever reason or maybe there was some sort of rift between the two. There was no questioning him as the most talented RB on the team last season and I don't think that changes with the signing of Danny Woodhead. I'm curious to see if Matthews can stay healthy. If he does, I don't see him finishing out of the top 20 and I think a top 10 finish is possible but not likely.

See, to me this is not a plus

Turner's been pretty good to running backs, if he had issues with Mathews it concerns me. People see turner's influence in Cleveland as a plus for Richardson, and others see his leaving mathews as a plus for mathews...

It wasnt turner, it was AJ smith who doghoused Mathews

and Mathews wasnt healthy last year, he broke both collarbones.

 

[Eminence]

Really, he's a risk to have on your team in both redraft and dynasty. I would look to acquire cheap in both if I could but I wouldn't be holding my breathe on anything.

 

[amicsta]

For those who don't like Mathews, how about posting your projections for the San Diego RBs this season?

Mathews averaged 19.4 touches per game in 2011 and 19.6 touches per game in 2012 if you ignore his last game when he got hurt. And he has been reasonably productive, especially considering how the surrounding offensive talent crumbled last season. Are naysayers projecting him with 19+ touches per game, and still not seeing value at his ADP? Or are they projecting many fewer touches per game due to the new offense and/or injuries?

Perhaps the best comment so far. Clear, concise, and factual. A guy getting 19+ touches a game should be seen as a value in the 5th, which is where he is currently going.

 

[PhantomJB]

For those who don't like Mathews, how about posting your projections for the San Diego RBs this season?

Mathews averaged 19.4 touches per game in 2011 and 19.6 touches per game in 2012 if you ignore his last game when he got hurt. And he has been reasonably productive, especially considering how the surrounding offensive talent crumbled last season. Are naysayers projecting him with 19+ touches per game, and still not seeing value at his ADP? Or are they projecting many fewer touches per game due to the new offense and/or injuries?

Not sure who this is directed at, but personally I wouldn't say I don't like Mathews, just being a realist.

Here are some projections if you think it will move the discussion forward. But it comes from an "uninformed troll" so you might have to take them with a grain of salt.

2013 Mathews assumptions: 240 carries (career-high) at 4.4 yds / carry (career avg). TD's at career avg of 0.37 / game.

2013 Team assumptions: 1,740 total RB rush yards which is 25% improvement over 2012 but slightly below 1,772 in 2011 due to perceived poorer overall offense.

Name Carries Yds TDs Pts Catches Yds TDs Pts Pts

R. Mathews 240 1050 6 141 45 350 1 41 182

D. Woodhead 100 450 1 51 50 450 1 51 102

R. Brown 50 200 1 26 10 70 0 7 33

L. McClain 10 40 0 4 0 0 0 0 4

1740 8 222 105 870 2 199 321

To Mathews' projections some context, here is where I have him ranking overall. Hence, my comments about "great redraft value above ADP RB22."

Rank Name Yds TDs Pts Catches Yds TDs Pts Pts

1 A. Peterson 1600 13 238 35 250 1 31 269

2 D. Martin 1400 10 200 50 450 2 57 257

3 J. Charles 1200 10 180 65 550 2 67 247

4 A. Foster 1250 12 197 45 350 2 47 244

5 M. Lynch 1300 12 202 25 200 1 26 228

6 A. Morris 1400 12 212 15 100 1 16 228

7 T. Richardson 1200 9 174 50 400 2 52 226

8 CJ Spiller 1200 9 174 45 350 2 47 221

9 R. Rice 1100 8 158 60 500 2 62 220

10 S. Jackson 1100 10 170 45 350 2 47 217

11 L. McCoy 1100 8 158 55 450 2 57 215

12 S. Ridley 1300 12 202 15 100 0 10 212

13 D. Murray 1100 9 164 45 350 2 47 211

14 C. Johnson 1200 9 174 40 300 1 36 210

15 M. Forte 1100 5 140 70 550 2 67 207

16 R. Bush 900 5 120 65 500 5 80 200

17 M. Jones-Drew 1100 8 158 45 350 1 41 199

18 D. McFadden 1100 7 152 45 350 1 41 193

19 L. Miller 1100 7 152 35 300 1 36 188

20 D. Wilson 1050 8 153 30 250 1 31 184

21 L. Bell 1100 8 158 25 200 1 26 184

22 R. Mathews 1050 6 141 45 350 1 41 182

23 F. Gore 1000 8 148 25 200 1 26 174

I've shown mine, now let's see projections from all those who think Mathews is headed for an RB1 finish.

ETA: Apologies for the original post with formatting issues. Excel

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I'll also say that losing Norv Turner is a PLUS for Matthews. I owned him in 3 leagues last year and watched many SD games. I can't tell you how many times I saw him come in and rip off a couple nice runs showing twice the burst of Ronnie Brown and Jackie Battle, yet Turner would yank him immediately. Turner also publicly waaaay over played the fumble card. See the following link:

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/most-fumbles-and-fumbles-lost/2012/

I am a firm believer that Turner had given up on Matthews for whatever reason or maybe there was some sort of rift between the two. There was no questioning him as the most talented RB on the team last season and I don't think that changes with the signing of Danny Woodhead. I'm curious to see if Matthews can stay healthy. If he does, I don't see him finishing out of the top 20 and I think a top 10 finish is possible but not likely.

See, to me this is not a plus

Turner's been pretty good to running backs, if he had issues with Mathews it concerns me. People see turner's influence in Cleveland as a plus for Richardson, and others see his leaving mathews as a plus for mathews...

Even though they are willing to hang their hats on his 2011 season #7 finish which came under Turner. It's an odd dynamic for sure.

I think most will agree that Matthews is a good value pick at his ADP - but there's a reason his ADP is as low as it is in the first place. He has risk, but the reward that comes with it could be a bonus.

 

[B-Deep]

I'll also say that losing Norv Turner is a PLUS for Matthews. I owned him in 3 leagues last year and watched many SD games. I can't tell you how many times I saw him come in and rip off a couple nice runs showing twice the burst of Ronnie Brown and Jackie Battle, yet Turner would yank him immediately. Turner also publicly waaaay over played the fumble card. See the following link:

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/most-fumbles-and-fumbles-lost/2012/

I am a firm believer that Turner had given up on Matthews for whatever reason or maybe there was some sort of rift between the two. There was no questioning him as the most talented RB on the team last season and I don't think that changes with the signing of Danny Woodhead. I'm curious to see if Matthews can stay healthy. If he does, I don't see him finishing out of the top 20 and I think a top 10 finish is possible but not likely.

See, to me this is not a plus

Turner's been pretty good to running backs, if he had issues with Mathews it concerns me. People see turner's influence in Cleveland as a plus for Richardson, and others see his leaving mathews as a plus for mathews...

Even though they are willing to hang their hats on his 2011 season #7 finish which came under Turner. It's an odd dynamic for sure.

I think most will agree that Matthews is a good value pick at his ADP - but there's a reason his ADP is as low as it is in the first place. He has risk, but the reward that comes with it could be a bonus.

that's what i think is the correct assessment

he's a pretty big unknown, there's definite upside and risk.

I actually think that applies to the chargers pretty much across the board this season