Najee Harris, Alabama Crimson Tide
BackCAST Score: +72.2%
RecIndex: -0.02
Similar Historical Prospects: Marshawn Lynch, LaMont Jordan
Najee Harris may be hard to project because Alabama's unusually talented roster could undermine some of BacKCAST's fundamental assumptions. Specifically, AOEPS assumes that most college running backs, even those that are potential draftees, will not ultimately be viable NFL running backs. Accordingly, if a team is constantly splitting carries with another running back on his team, it is typically a red flag. Most college coaches know their players well and will funnel most of the team's carries to a running back who is talented enough to be an NFL star.
Alabama, however, is the rare case where that assumption may not be true. Harris, for example, had to compete with future first-round pick Josh Jacobs and future third-round pick Damien Harris early in his career for carries. Accordingly, Harris' AOEPS of +2.1% may undersell his true ability.
Further obfuscating Harris' projection is the fact that Harris did not run the 40-yard dash in pre-draft workouts due to injury. Harris does, however, have good size at 230 pounds. A first-round level prospect typically has a 40-yard dash in the low 4.5s, which is where BackCAST has Harris.
That said, despite all of the questions surrounding Harris' projection, it still comes in as a solid 72.2%, which is firmly average for a first-round pick. Accordingly, scouts who like Harris' tape do not necessarily need to shy away from selecting him fairly high.