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RB Kerryon Johnson, Free Agent (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
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mcintyre1
Footballguy
I'm warming up to Kerryon the more I watch of him (of course, it also helps that I'm working myself into accepting that he's likely a guy I'll have to take towards the back of the RB group). Anyone else get kind of a Jamaal Williams vibe to him? I think he's faster than Williams, but I think they've got pretty similar running styles, and they're almost exactly the same size.
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Snorkelson
Footballguy
Without comparing combine stats I’d guess that KJ has way better 3cone and agility scores. Both are gritty, do everything backs that won’t likely break the long one but will grind out yards. Kerryon seems more explosive and could have more success on the edge. But I’m a lions fan that’s looking for all the good stuff.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Michael RothsteinVerified account @mikerothstein
FollowFollow @mikerothstein
This week's #LionsMailbag: Can Lions rookie RB Kerryon Johnson be this year's Kareem Hunt?
Can Lions rookie RB Kerryon Johnson be this year's Kareem Hunt?
Raymond Nuznoff@rayray1222
Based on the Lions Draft, do you think Kerryon Johnson has the best chance to be this years Kareem Hunt? Last year all we talked about was Hunt from Toledo being a good fit, Lions passed on him, and KC got the benefits. Johnson definitely has good vision though. #LionsMailbag
2:55 PM - May 3, 2018
I don’t know if you can make that kind of comparison. Where there was some buzz that Johnson could be a good fit for the Lions before the draft, it is nowhere near the attention-slash-match that Hunt and the Chiefs seemed to have last year. Johnson is a good player. There are concerns about his durability due to injuries in college – something general manager Bob Quinn doesn’t seem too concerned with – but when he’s healthy he’s a dynamic runner. Comparing him to Hunt is a stretch because rookie years like Hunt’s don’t come around all that often. There also are questions about Detroit’s offensive line, and the Lions are still going to be more of a passing attack. So to make that comparison for any back is a hard thing to do. But does Johnson have a chance to be successful and is he likely to get opportunities to do that? Yes, he should.
FollowFollow @mikerothstein
This week's #LionsMailbag: Can Lions rookie RB Kerryon Johnson be this year's Kareem Hunt?
Can Lions rookie RB Kerryon Johnson be this year's Kareem Hunt?
Raymond Nuznoff@rayray1222
Based on the Lions Draft, do you think Kerryon Johnson has the best chance to be this years Kareem Hunt? Last year all we talked about was Hunt from Toledo being a good fit, Lions passed on him, and KC got the benefits. Johnson definitely has good vision though. #LionsMailbag
2:55 PM - May 3, 2018
I don’t know if you can make that kind of comparison. Where there was some buzz that Johnson could be a good fit for the Lions before the draft, it is nowhere near the attention-slash-match that Hunt and the Chiefs seemed to have last year. Johnson is a good player. There are concerns about his durability due to injuries in college – something general manager Bob Quinn doesn’t seem too concerned with – but when he’s healthy he’s a dynamic runner. Comparing him to Hunt is a stretch because rookie years like Hunt’s don’t come around all that often. There also are questions about Detroit’s offensive line, and the Lions are still going to be more of a passing attack. So to make that comparison for any back is a hard thing to do. But does Johnson have a chance to be successful and is he likely to get opportunities to do that? Yes, he should.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Yeah, and I think a lot of people at at the 2-5 range want to drop back a little but aren’t getting much to move
So Kerryon was drafted one round ahead of Royce (2.11 vs. 3.07) to a better (IMO) offense. Is there a reason Royce seems to be the consensus pick over Kerryon? None of my drafts have taken place yet, so I'm not looking for confirmation bias. I just feel like I'd take Kerryon before Royce if my draft were to occur right now, but it goes against the grain so I'm trying to figure out why. Best I can tell is that Freeman stands to have less competition in year 1, but in 2019 Abdullah and Blount will both be free agents while Booker and Henderson will still be on rookie contracts in Denver.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I think it’s what you said, for the moment the Lions backfield looks murkier. Also I think most people had Freeman rated higher before the draft so there is a lot of people think Freeman is more talented.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I think both of those backs carry the most risk in the top 8, but I would prefer Johnson as well. I think you've captured why the concenus is Freeman over Johnson, as most think Freeman is stepping into a mix where the road to starting is much easier. Sure dynasty is in theory a marathon and not a sprint but some just have a tough time with patience.
bostonfred
Footballguy
I think the fear with Kerryon is that Detroit is committed to rbbc and that Patricia will be too. Kerryon was also a polarizing prospect because he changed his running style to emulate Leveon bell and his ypc slipped, he had some injuries this year, and he didn't put up elite combine numbers. His vision had also been both lauded and questioned - he might be patient waiting for a hole to open, then choose the wrong one when two open. And his style can get him caught on short gains waiting for more to develop.
But
The good news is that Detroit is a fantastic fit for Kerryon. They've got Decker back, who was a stud run blocking right tackle before transitioning to that left. They spent their first round pick on a center who is perfect for kerryon's style because he is athletic enough to pull until there's a hole. They drafted a run blocking guard in the fifth who slid in the draft due to concussions. They also drafted a fullback. The lions are wholly committed to improving their run game, having spent four draft picks on it including their first and second round picks. Actually, make that five picks - they traded their second and fourth rounders to move up in the second and take Kerryon. While guice and Freeman were both still on the board. They like him, they will use him and they will block for him.
He was used a lot as an inside runner in college but the lions have said they want to use him more outside too. Which is potentially good news for his ypc.
And he's good in the passing game as both a pass protector and receiver. So he could earn three down work over time.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
What do you mean by he switched his running style and ypc slipped? When did that happen?
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Great article thanks. Just looking at the stats, his ypc didn’t slip,it was 4.0 in 15, 4.9 in 16 and 4.9 in 17.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
It is a good question as far as why people would have Freeman ahead of Johnson.
I do have Freeman ahead of Johnson, but the differences between them in my view is razor thin. To me they are the same value, I just have a slight preference for Freeman over Johnson.
Johnson was drafted higher than Freeman was and I do think the Lions have a better offensive line than the Broncos. I also think Booker is good and close to the same level of talent as both of these RB, so its not like I don't think Freeman will have competition for playing time. All of those things I would say are positives in Johnsons favor.
As for the draft position, I am not confident in the Lions decision making process when they selected Johnson over Guice. So this sort of nullifies that perk in my view. I think they drafted a lesser RB.
I do think Freeman is a better RB prospect than Johnson is and not as much of an injury risk as I see Johnson being.
The Lions do seem to be committed to changing their offense and running the ball more, I just don't think RIddick is going away. He is a very good player and I see him getting a lot of playing time and opportunity. See James White with the Patriots except Riddick might actually be better than White Blount has been a great goal line RB and if Patrica does follow the NE mold of RBBC there is going to be more of a split than I think the Broncos will employ with Musgrave as the OC.
So in my view with these factors cancelling each other out it ultimately comes down to who I think is the better RB and for me that is Freeman although not by much. To me they are pretty much even, I just like Freeman slightly more.
I do have Freeman ahead of Johnson, but the differences between them in my view is razor thin. To me they are the same value, I just have a slight preference for Freeman over Johnson.
Johnson was drafted higher than Freeman was and I do think the Lions have a better offensive line than the Broncos. I also think Booker is good and close to the same level of talent as both of these RB, so its not like I don't think Freeman will have competition for playing time. All of those things I would say are positives in Johnsons favor.
As for the draft position, I am not confident in the Lions decision making process when they selected Johnson over Guice. So this sort of nullifies that perk in my view. I think they drafted a lesser RB.
I do think Freeman is a better RB prospect than Johnson is and not as much of an injury risk as I see Johnson being.
The Lions do seem to be committed to changing their offense and running the ball more, I just don't think RIddick is going away. He is a very good player and I see him getting a lot of playing time and opportunity. See James White with the Patriots except Riddick might actually be better than White Blount has been a great goal line RB and if Patrica does follow the NE mold of RBBC there is going to be more of a split than I think the Broncos will employ with Musgrave as the OC.
So in my view with these factors cancelling each other out it ultimately comes down to who I think is the better RB and for me that is Freeman although not by much. To me they are pretty much even, I just like Freeman slightly more.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Yeah if we are talking about what order to draft the 8 rookie rbs in you'll get a hundred different well thought out answers, but kind of a consensus that they're all very close in value. You'll get some 1.2 owners swearing that guice is head and shoulders the best but it sure seems like they're all trying to trade down from 1.2 to 1.5 or so.Biabreakable said:
One thing that seems to be the consensus is that Kerryon and Freeman were near the bottom before and after the draft, but they both bubbled up into people's top 5 at different points in the pre draft rankings/adps. They were drafted later than penny/Michel/Chubb/Jones. But Johnson was drafted in the early second and the lions traded up for him, and while Freeman lasted until the real third, he was the eighth running back off the board. Eight of the first 71 picks were running backs. That's a lot.
Maybe these guys are just all good.
Johnson went before Freeman in both my rookie drafts this weekend. Personally I'm not a huge fan of either at their cost, the guys with the last picks in the 7~9 range want a ton for them since that is where the drop off is in rookie drafts. I like both players but Det & Den have bad offensive lines, and both have big questions on offense (Lions pass a ton and abandon the run regularly, favor RBBC, and when they do actually run the ball they telegraph the play for the defense to easily adjust,) (Denver has a ? at QB and a rapidly aging core.) Also the post earlier is way too optimistic on the Lions line improving IMO. The advanced metrics at PFF were not kind in grading them in run blocking (2nd worst in the league last year,) and a center and 5th rounder aren't going to improve things much IMO. Even when their better starters were healthy last year, they were still around bottom 3rd of the league.
If you've got a pick in that range I think you are better off trading up (if you can) or selling the pick for a decent haul.
If you've got a pick in that range I think you are better off trading up (if you can) or selling the pick for a decent haul.
We're talking about 8 spots later than Chubb and 5 spots later than Jones, whereas Freeman was a full round later. To me, there's a big difference between 2.11 and 3.07. Not that 3.07 isn't relatively high these days (Kamara was 3.03 and Hunt was 3.22) but the delta between picks is big enough that it makes an easy tie breaker for me. However, I won't hold it against anyone who doesn't trust Detroit's draft savvy. It probably wouldn't shock anyone if Detroit traded up to draft someone that they could've had a round later. I just don't know if that's true or not since I've seen Kerryon ranked ahead of Freeman by some trusted experts.
They were missing (LT) Decker (former 1st rounder) for most of the season. On paper, it looks like Detroit should have a solid OL this year.
Decker played the entire 2nd half of the season. He struggled mightily upon his return from injury until finally looking like his rookie self the last few games of the season. Edit: Even if he's healthy all year and their picks hit, I still think it's a stretch to call them solid. Maybe in comparison to Denver's line.
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They didn't activate him until week 10. But yeah, I think it should be expected that he'd struggle a bit early on. All the more reason to be excited about him being at full health this year. Lang and Wagner should be solid. Ragnow is expected to be a big upgrade. I expect this unit to at least perform near the middle of the pack which would be a huge upgrade over years past (sorry Abdullah :( )
He started practicing before that and played week 10~17 with their Bye in the 1st half but we're splitting hairs at this point. I added an Edit to my previous post as you were responding, but basically even if he plays at full form for the season I think it's a huge stretch to expect the 2nd worst run blocking line in the league to suddenly improve so much even factoring in the injuries last year. I think middle of the pack would be a best case scenario assuming everyone stays healthy.
In the end, that's probably a lot more than we can say for Denver's o'line.
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I also think Stafford >> Keenum
But for 2018, I think Abdullah, Riddick, Blount > Booker, Henderson
In 2019, Kerryon loses Abdullah and Blount while Royce might get a Keenum replacement (can't say upgrade since it could be a rookie).
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yeah part of my hesitation about the Lions offensive line is just based on what they have done recently, which is not very well at run blocking as you point out.
I do think the center that they draft should be a big upgrade although according to PFF Glasgow was their 8th rated center last year FWIW. So a tall order to expect a rookie to be better than that I think, presumably Glasgow moves to left guard and their starting five linemen should all be solid players now.
I agree with what your saying that if they can improve to average in run blocking it would still be a great upgrade from what they did last season and for awhile now. I also agree that their offensive line may be more talented than what the Broncos currently have to work with.
Its not outside the realm of possibility. The Vikings were the worst run blocking line in 2016 but took a major step forward in 2017 with two free agent additions and Pat Elflien drafted in the 3rd round. They improved a lot despite Dalvin Cook being injured after 3.5 games as well, so its certainly possible that the Lions offensive line improves in a big way.
The Lions defense still needs work though and regardless of the plans to run the ball a lot more and more effectively this season, they still may be in some high scoring games and have to abandon the run anyways. That would be one difference to consider as far as comparing the Lions potential to improve dramatically compared to what the Vikings did last season.
I like you would give the edge to the Lions over the Broncos in offensive line talent. For me Freeman and Johnson are pretty much a coin flip.
lardonastick
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
There is a good chance Ragnow plays guard. He had just as many starts at guard as center in college and lots of scouts said his game at RG against Bama was his best game. He dominated Payne.
Aznflyer14
Footballguy
I, too, share the same concern you guys have in Lions' OL, questioning the validity of their 2nd round selection in RB Johnson. However, I found an article that sorts of change my thought. Take a look at #1 in this article. The damning part from this article is the specific excerpt, "Prior to general manager Bob Quinn taking over in 2016, the Lions had only drafted more than one OL in a single draft once from 2009-2015 (only 5 teams in the NFL during this period drafted less)." It makes sense that their current regime (GM Quinn) invested in rebuilding their offensive (and defensive) trench n past year in preparation for for Matty Patty as their HC.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
I really like Johnson, but I'm pretty worried about Riddick eating up a significant portion of the passing game work for PPR leagues.
zamboni
Footballguy
Faust
MVP
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Tanner9919
Footballguy
JIm Bob Cooter..more than any RB on the roster, this man stands in Johnson's way..he's worse than an 8-yr old girl changing her clothes 15 times a day. he can't settle on one RB, he has to get cute..he'd find a way to hinder Barry Sanders' ..and with Patricia coming from the BB tree I'd expect the RBBC style to continue in Detroit.
not to mention the improved Bears' D, Packers D, Vikings D 6x/yr..
not to mention the improved Bears' D, Packers D, Vikings D 6x/yr..
Any particular reason for his relatively low YPC in college (4.8)? Looking at most top RB's of the past two draft classes, they generally average over 6 yards per carry and Kerryon is a full yard below that. I like the way he runs but is that statistic troubling to anyone else?
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Best (optimistic) reasoning is that he was the whole offense and loaded SEC defenses could stack the box on him. Also they ran him a lot as a wildcat QB so that totally eliminated any passing threat. I’m not sure if the numbers support that but it’s the reasoning I’ve heard.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
He has a real lack of long runs but consistently grinds out yards. His 20+ yds is really low if I remember correctly. So if you aren’t getting those chunk yds to pad your line it will affect the ypc. That may raise a flag in itself, but I still think he can be a good rb at the nfl level.
I think part of the reason they liked KJ is he is versatile. The lions have been pretty predictable with their rb usage, telegraphing the play depending on which back is out there when. KJ fits many roles. Riddick has earned a role in the offense, and Blount will do some work this year in the short game, but for dynasty I really like KJ. Just temper the expectations for year 1.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
anxiously awaiting updates on KJ
barackdhouse
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Why? Because I hadn't heard any reports at the time I asked the question. Also, water is wet.
matttyl
Footballguy
While I'm hopeful, I'm also aware of the situation. Detroit's running game was historically bad last year. They averaged only 76.3 rushing yards per game, 32nd in the league. The 2nd worst team average since 2012. Now, that just means there isn't much competition for carries (Abdullah hasn't done much as a pro and is consistently hurt, and Blount turns 32 this year) - but they simply don't run much. Only 363 rushing attempts to 570 passing attempts.
So, have they done enough on their defense to be able to run the ball more in the 2nd half of games? Do they have a legit third receiving option (other than Riddick) to keep defenses from stacking the box?
Over under 1,000 yards from scrimmage?
So, have they done enough on their defense to be able to run the ball more in the 2nd half of games? Do they have a legit third receiving option (other than Riddick) to keep defenses from stacking the box?
Over under 1,000 yards from scrimmage?
