As a general rule of thumb I give all rookies 3 seasons before moving on from them. When I have done upside rankings for rookies it is with the idea that they can reach that upside by their 3rd season.
I discussed this earlier this year where I may accelerate that time frame to 2 seasons before turning the page but never one.
I know from my research that the rookie season for a RB is usually their worst performing season of the first six seasons of their career on average. For RB who were actually relevant for at least 6 or more games of their careers that is.
I didn't rank rookies this season but if I had I am guessing Johnson would have been a 3rd tier player for me. Which isn't a player I am going to be very committed to holding on to. I don't like the situation he is in with the Bears right now at all and outlook for that improving over the next 3 seasons does not seem good to me either.
Absolutely agree that it's trigger happy to move off of rookies, although I am less patient with RBs after a year because NFL teams tend to be as well. Unless they are high draft picks or have considerable contracts, NFL teams tend to move off them quickly if they don't show a lot in their rookie years.
If "move off" means drop or sell for peanuts, then I agree. But I have no qualms with moving rookies who haven't performed or had a chance yet, even immediately after drafting them. I had an offer of a 2024 first and second for Roschon before the season started. Should have taken it. Considered it.
Did end up using Roschon, Spears, Kendre Miller, and Quentin Johnston to get Gibbs though.
Damn I would have jumped on a 2024 first and a second for him even as a truther.
I know, I was stupid, but RB's are treated like rubies in our league ... And I thought his picks would be late, they're looking more mid or "anywhere" now.
I tend to not think too much about where the opponents picks might end up unless they have an obviously weak team.
You can always trade those picks at another time for players or other picks.
The thing is to try to use the time value discount in your favor.
You sell current season picks when its getting closer to the draft or even during the draft for picks the following season with a sweetener (like a 3rd round pick) added in each time to grind value that way.
Then bundle picks together to upgrade them later on.
If your league highly values RB then of course use that to your advantage. Be the owner who is alway willing to trade RB away so your competitors keep coming to you to buy them.
Then pick up new RB prospects to sell with the freed up roster spots. Rinse and repeat.
Of course you will lose trades sometimes. But doing that just makes opponents want to trade with you more in future.
When you do use picks on rookie players, be very specifically selective about it. Otherwise sell.